Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 119, Tuesday, October 15, 2024
Global Economy Moves Beyond Inflation Crisis to Stable
Once again there are mixed signals about the global, regional and individual economies. McKinsey & Co., the World Bank, the Economist, the Financial Times, Bloomberg and many other publications are starting their year-end looks back and forward. Consumer and executive confidence seems up and down depending on the month, region, country and sector.
And then there are the 67 national elections being held in 2024. Almost all, but now quite all (!!!!!!!!), are finished. “Elections have consequences” for companies trying to plan how best to manage their businesses. European EV owners are eyeing going back to gas. China is trying a number of things to stimulate its slow economy. The United Kingdom’s economy is waiting for the first new government budget. And Shake Shack® is reinventing the restaurant labor model.
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Editor’s Note: You will see small ads in each edition for carefully vetted companies that serve international businesses. These small, focused, vetted ads are in place of charging subscriptions to our readers. Please click on the ads or use the QR code to see what each of our carefully chosen advertisers can do to make doing global business easier.
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Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with any questions, comments and we welcome contributions.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/
+1 949 375 1896
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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“Tactics without strategy is the noise before the defeat.”, Sun Tzu
“Wonder what your customer really wants? Ask. Don’t tell.”, Lisa Stone
“Get big quietly so you don’t tip off potential competitors.”, Chris Dixon
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Highlights in issue #119:
- Brand Global News Section: Foot Locker®, Shake Shack®, and TGI Fridays (UK)
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B2B Payments Platform For Global Businesses
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“Global Economy Moves Beyond Inflation Crisis to Stable Growth – OECD says central banks can continue to prudently cut rates. Significant risks remain to the outlook, organization says. The global economy is settling into a newfound stability as the stress of strong inflation eases, allowing central banks to keep cautiously loosening policy, according to the OECD. Economic growth has remained resilient in recent months, inflation has continued to moderate and indicators suggest ongoing momentum in services, the Paris-based organization said on Wednesday.”, Bloomberg, September 25, 2024
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“McKinsey & Co. Economic conditions outlook, September 2024 – For the first time since March 2020, surveyed executives primarily see the global economy as stable rather than improving. The latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions reveals more cautious sentiments from respondents on both current global conditions and domestic economies than seen in the previous two quarters—though a plurality of respondents expect each to improve in the next six months. While geopolitical instability continues to loom as the top perceived risk to global and domestic growth, in a year when almost half of the world’s population will vote in national elections, respondents now cite political transitions second-most often as a threat both globally and at home.”, McKinsey & Co., September 27, 2024
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Editor’s Note: We first brought up the fact that there will be national elections this year in 67 countries covering 49% of the world’s population and 52% of the world’s GDP in early 2024. “Elections Have Consequences”. This is particularly important for businesses trying to plan for growth. New governments – no matter what party or ideology – usually make changes in taxes and regulations that will impact both local businesses and foreign businesses considering entering new countries. In 2025, we will see the impact of 67 national elections in 2024 on our ability to grow the world’s GDP in 2025.
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Simple, secure currency transfers
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“How will climate change affect crop yields in the future? Maize yields could see significant declines, but wheat could increase. Impacts across the world will be very different. How much will climate change affect food production? Will it hurt or benefit crop yields? Can we feed 8, 9, or 10 billion people in a warmer world? The impact of climate change on yields will depend on several factors: the type of crop, how much warmer the world gets (which will depend on how quickly we reduce our carbon emissions), where in the world you are, and what we do to adapt.”, Our World In Data, October 13, 2024
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“Copper: Now and in the Future – Geopolitical challenges in copper mining are significant, particularly in Latin America and Africa. Copper is crucial to the global economy, and its importance is only going up. Historically, copper has been vital in construction, electrical networks and transportation. But now it is also in high demand as the world shifts toward green technologies and the electrification of transportation. Due to its high conductivity, durability and resistance to corrosion, copper is used in electric vehicles, solar panels and wind turbines. Major copper mining regions include Latin America, particularly Chile, which produces a quarter of the global supply.”, Geopolitical Futures, October 11, 2024
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“EV owners eyeing gas – Across Europe, 19 percent of electric vehicle owners are likely or very likely to switch back to a traditional combustion engine vehicle, according to a McKinsey Mobility Consumer Pulse Survey. Senior partner Andreas Venus and colleagues explain that the share of electric-vehicle owners who say they would consider switching back varies by country: 24 percent of owners in Germany would consider switching back, compared with 18 percent of owners in France and Norway and 15 percent in Italy. The global average is 29 percent.”, McKinsey, October 8, 2024
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Subscribers to our newsletter are invited to a webinar on best practices in global franchising with a focus on taking an international franchise into Spain successfully on Wednesday, October 30th at 9AM west coast USA time.
William Edwards (https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/) and Ned Lyerly (https://www.linkedin.com/in/nedlyerly/) will draw on their 8 decades of taking franchises into new countries successfully to share best practices – what works and what fails!
To sign up for this free webinar please go to this LinkedIn link to register:
https://www.linkedin.com/events/7246525895643987968/comments
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Book Review
Professionals cannot ask their most successful competitors and peers their secrets of rainmaking. That would be awkward, impractical, and sometimes illegal. But it pays to compare yourself to your successful peers.
So, the authors of Rainmaker Confidential did it for you in this 2022 book. Henry DeVries, Scott Love and Mark LeBlanc went behind closed doors and asked the tough questions. We asked more than one hundred successful rainmakers what they are investing more in, what they are cutting back on, and what are their go-to strategies. In other words, how are they investing their time, treasure, and talent. Think of us as your rainmaking R&D department. You’ve no doubt heard of using OPM (other people’s money) to grow your business. This book is about using OPE (other professionals’ experience) to grow your business.
This book is for those who serve in roles such as chief executive officer, general manager, principal, partner, or head of an office, business unit, or practice for professional service firms, especially in the fields of accounting, dental consulting, financial services, management consulting, marketing and advertising, executive search services, software development, technology services, and law firm management. Some define R&D as research and development; the authors define it as rob and duplicate. (!!!??)
The authors say they have done the research so you can ‘rob and duplicate’ the most successful rainmaking strategies from your professional peers. It’s okay, we did not use espionage to gain their secrets. The OPE rainmaking insider secrets were willingly shared.
Editor’s Note: Your editior has known and valued Henry DeVries and his common sense wisdom about rainmaking and publishing your own book for many years.
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Keith Gerson and Bill Edwards Join Forces To Offer Trusted Suppliers To The Franchise Community
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Country & Regional Updates
China
“Can joint ventures fix China’s trade imbalance with the EU and US? Chinese investment abroad is ‘only way’ to ease Beijing’s trade surplus, says leading researcher in wake of Brussels’ EV tariff vote. Trade tensions are growing, with China announcing on Tuesday that it will start collecting anti-dumping duties on European brandy. The announcement came just days after Brussels voted to impose tariffs on Chinese-made EVs after concluding that Beijing was unfairly subsidising EV exports to Europe.”, South China Morning Post, October 12, 2024
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“Who makes China’s stimulus decisions, and what’s the procedure? What has changed since China rolled out a 4-trillion-yuan (US$141 billion) stimulus package in 2008, and why a concrete stimulus figure now remains elusive. Compared with the 2008 stimulus package announced by China’s then premier, Wen Jiabao, China’s current economic power now largely rests with the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission headed by President Xi Jinping. The National Development and Reform Commission, which is a long-term planner and a coordinator on economic issues, will focus on expanding and front-loading government investment to boost the economy, as it is responsible for approving large infrastructure projects. And the source of funding will come from the Ministry of Finance (MOF), whose plans include debt relief for local governments, capital replenishment for major state-owned banks and fiscal support for the property market.”, The South China Morning Post, October 14, 2024
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Germany
“Germany’s choice – Should Europe’s largest economy embrace the future or double down on past successes? Europe is at a hinge moment, but so is Germany. And it is hard for the EU to go anywhere without its largest economy consenting to go in the same direction. Hard though not impossible, as shown by last week’s imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports, in the face of Berlin’s opposition. Still, so long as Germany does not know what it wants, the EU will struggle to make any big steps forward.”, The Financial Times, October 10, 2024
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Portugal
“Portugal proposes decade of tax breaks for young people to stem brain drain – In April, Portugal swore in a new center-right government. It inherited a huge problem, namely: how do you stop a brain drain that’s seen thousands of young people leave your country, at a time when your population is naturally aging and birth rates are hitting record lows? The new prime minister, Luís Montenegro, has a radical proposal — a decade of super low taxes for people under 35. Under the proposed scheme, young workers who earn less than €28,000 ($30,650) would enjoy a completely tax-free first year. They would then be exempted from 75% of tax until the fourth year, enjoy a 50% exemption in years five to seven, and a final 25% in years eight to ten.”, Chartr, October 12, 2024
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United Kingdom
“UK economy grew 0.2% in August – Figure comes as chancellor Rachel Reeves prepares Labour government’s first Budget this month. Friday’s figure, in line with economists’ forecasts, came after zero growth in June and July but marked a slowdown from the start of the year. Services output grew 0.1 per cent in August, production was up 0.5 per cent and construction expanded 0.4 per cent, the Office for National Statistics said. The ONS data comes less than three weeks before Labour’s first Budget, when chancellor Rachel Reeves faces the challenge of lifting economic growth while repairing the public finances”, The Financial Times, October 11, 2024
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“UK employers and staff pay more tax on earnings than Germany – Taxes on income, profits and capital gains paid by individuals and corporations in the UK rose to the equivalent of 13.3pc of the economy in 2022, amid fears that Rachel Reeves will push the burden even higher in her maiden Budget on Oct 30. This is the highest share since records began in 1990, according to data compiled by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), pushing the UK’s burden on earnings further ahead of Germany, Europe’s largest economy. The UK’s tax share on earnings surpassed German levels in 2021 amid a stealth raid on wages presided over by Rishi Sunak.”, The Telegraph, October 7, 2024
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United States
“US Consumer Sentiment Unexpectedly Falls on High Cost of Living – University of Michigan sentiment index at 68.9 after 70.1. Short-term inflation views rose to 2.9% in early October. Consumers expect prices will climb 2.9% over the next year, up from the 2.7% expected in September and the first increase in five months, the report issued Friday showed. At the same time, they see costs rising 3% over the next five to 10 years, down from 3.1% in the prior month.”, Bloomberg, October 11, 2024
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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades
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Brand & Franchising News
“Foot Locker’s reimagined concept store set to debut in Australia – The store will feature the ‘Home Court’ experience, a multi-brand destination developed in partnership with Nike and Jordan. The store will feature Foot Locker’s ‘Home Court’ experience, a multi-brand destination developed in partnership with Nike and Jordan. Its product offer will include on-court and off-court items from Nike, Jordan, Adidas, Puma, New Balance, and Under Armour. The reimagined store concept launch comes after Foot Locker celebrated its 50th anniversary last month. The brand has also launched the reimagined store concept in New York, Paris, and New Jersey, and will launch soon in Delhi.”, Inside Retail Australia, October 14, 2024
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“Shake Shack reinvents the labor deployment model – The burger chain joins a growing number of fast-casual chains using AI-driven technology to better manage staffing. Shake Shack is moving to a bespoke labor deployment model that CEO Rob Lynch said could be a game changer. In fact, the fast-casual burger chain joins a number of peers making similar moves toward using AI-driven technology to more accurately predict the team members needed in each restaurant and when to deploy them. The CEOs of Chipotle, Sweetgreen and Cava in recent months have all described using similar types of technology as they look to improve profitability at a time when macroeconomic pressures are keeping a lid on menu price increases.”, Restaurant Business, September 5, 2024
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“Family favourite restaurant to close 35 locations immediately – More than 1,000 staff will lose their jobs at TGI Fridays (UK) after a deal to save the well-known brand failed to include all 86 locations. A deal has been struck that saves 51 restaurants and nearly 2,400 jobs. The new deal was agreed today with private equity firms Breal Capital and Calveton UK, and will operate under the Liberty Bar and Restaurant Group Limited name.”, The Sun UK, October 7, 2024
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.
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