Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 113, Tuesday, July 23, 2024
Commentary about the 113th Issue: Average salaries in 30 countries. Regenerative AI and the world’s software market. Microsoft orders all China staff to use iPhones. U.S. fast food chains raise prices more then 50% in the last ten years. Canada set to be the fastest growing G7 country in 2025. How to stay healthy at 35,000 feet.Commentary about the 113th Issue: Average salaries in 30 countries. Regenerative AI and the world’s software market. Microsoft orders all China staff to use iPhones. U.S. fast food chains raise prices more than 50% in the last ten years.
How to stay healthy at 35,000 feet. Saudi Arabia allows first sale of alcohol (really!). U.S. must add 290 terawatt hours of electricity by 2030. Olive Garden® parent buys Chuy’s®. McDonald s plans to have more than 10,000 restaurants in mainland China by 2028. Fossil fuels made up 81% of global energy consumption in 2023. India projects growth of 6.5%-7% vs 8.2% last year. And the United States and China combine for a massive 43.2% share of the global economy.
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with any questions, comments and contributions.
Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896
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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“Train people well enough so they can leave, treat them well enough so they don’t want to.”, Richard Branson, business magnate and founder of Virgin Group
“Get the right people. Then no matter what all else you might do wrong after that, the people will save you. That’s what management is all about.”, Tom DeMarco, software engineer
“Of all the things I’ve done, the most vital is coordinating the talents of those who work for us and pointing them toward a certain goal.”, Walt Disney
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Highlights in issue #113:
- Average Annual Salaries by Country
- Economic conditions outlook, June 2024
- Microsoft Orders China Staff to Use iPhones for Work and Drop Android
- Inflation Across U.S. Fast Food Chains (2014-2024)
- Small Businesses Still Struggling
- Staying Healthy at 35,000 Feet
- Brand Global News Section: Chuy’s®, Dominos®, Herbalife®, McDonalds®, Olive Garden® and Sol Bowl®
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“Software’s byte of the gen AI apple – Generative AI’s (gen AI’s) quick adoption over the past year suggests that the global software sector will undergo a major change, senior partner Jeremy Schneider and coauthors note. But based on a McKinsey survey of software leaders and executives, it is anticipated that gen AI will affect each software category to a different degree. Content creation is one of three areas expected to see a very high level of disruption, while system infrastructure is on the other end of the disruption spectrum. Overall, gen AI could spark almost $300 billion in new software spending over the next few years.”, McKinsey & Co., July 9, 2024
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“Economic conditions outlook, June 2024 – Executives’ views on the world economy remain more positive than negative, though they believe a recession is increasingly likely. In their own economies, concerns over unemployment are growing. So far in 2024, survey respondents seem more sanguine about the economy than they were for much of 2023. In our newest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions,1 respondents tend to say that conditions in their countries and globally are improving rather than declining and will continue to improve in the months ahead. Yet they also foresee a few clouds gathering on the horizon.”, McKinsey & Co., June 27, 2024
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“Help wanted: Charting the challenge of tight labor markets in advanced economies – Labor markets in advanced economies today are among the tightest in two decades, not merely a pandemic-induced blip but rather a long-term trend that may continue as workforces age. Tightness means forgone economic output. We estimate that GDP in 2023 could have been 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent higher across these economies if employers had been able to fill their excess job vacancies. Companies and economies will need to boost productivity and find new ways to expand the workforce. Otherwise, they will struggle to exceed—or even match—the relatively muted economic growth of the past decade.”, McKinsey & Co., June 28, 2024
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“WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE – Global growth is projected to be in line with the April 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, at 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025. However, varied momentum in activity at the turn of the year has somewhat narrowed the output divergence across economies as cyclical factors wane and activity becomes better aligned with its potential. Services price inflation is holding up progress on disinflation, which is complicating monetary policy normalization. Upside risks to inflation have thus increased, raising the prospect of higher-for-even-longer interest rates, in the context of escalating trade tensions and increased policy uncertainty. To manage these risks and preserve growth, the policy mix should be sequenced carefully to achieve price stability and replenish diminished buffers.”, International Monetary Fund, July 2024
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“Average Annual Salaries by Country – There are many reasons for why salaries vary between countries: economic development, cost of living, labor laws, and a variety of other factors. Because of these variables, it can be difficult to gauge the general level of income around the world. With this in mind, we’ve visualized the average annual salaries of 30 OECD countries, adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP). This means that the values listed have taken into account the differences in cost of living and inflation between countries. This data was sourced from the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), an international organization that promotes policies to improve economic and social well-being. It has 38 member countries, though in this instance, data for all of them was not available.”, OECD & Visual Capitalist, July 17, 2024
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“The world population is projected to peak slightly earlier than in previous projections – The United Nations doesn’t only publish historical estimates of how population and demographic trends have changed in the past; it also makes projections for what the future might look like. To be clear, these are projections, not predictions of changes in the future. In its 2022 publication, the UN estimated that, in its medium scenario, the global population would peak in 2086 at around 10.4 billion people. This year’s edition brings this peak forward slightly to 2084, with the population topping at just under 10.3 billion.”. Our World In Data, July 11, 2024
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“Inflation Across U.S. Fast Food Chains (2014-2024) – Fast food joints were once the go-to option for quick, cost-friendly meals, but now, they’re starting to pinch the budget.
Inflation has hit fast food chains hard in the past decade, with many restaurants seeing an average price increase on menu items of more than 50%. This graphic visualizes the average price increase of 10 core menu items from select American fast food chains, as well as the change in the consumer price index (U.S. city average) for food away from home, from 2014 to 2024.”, FianceBuzz and the Federal Reserve, July 12, 2024
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“New Labor Unrest Hits U.S. Ports – The peak shipping season is getting underway with another threat of labor disruption at American ports. The union representing about 45,000 workers at ports from Maine to Texas and the seaport employers are in a standoff with no negotiations on the calendar and the current longshore contract due to expire in a little over two months. German port workers are considering a “final offer” from employers after staging several walkouts in recent weeks. (Maritime Executive). A vote at a Coventory warehouse to force Amazon to recognize a union for the first time in the U.K. fell just short of a majority. (Financial Times).”, The Wall Street Journal, July 2024
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“Maersk says Red Sea shipping disruption having global effects – DENMARK’S AP Moller-Maersk said on Wednesday (Jul 17) that disruption to its container shipping via the Red Sea had extended beyond trade routes in the far east of Europe to its entire global network. Shipping groups have diverted vessels around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope since December to avoid attacks by Iran-aligned Houthi militants in the Red Sea, with the longer voyage times pushing freight rates higher. “Ports across Asia, including Singapore, Australia, and Shanghai, are experiencing delays as ships reroute and schedules are disrupted, caused by ripple effects from the Red Sea,” it said in a statement.”, The Business Times, July 17, 2024
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“2024 Statistical Review of World Energy – What Powered the World in 2023 – Fossil fuels continue to power the world. While a lot of spotlight in the energy industry is on the clean energy transition to renewable sources, fossil fuels continue to reign supreme when it comes to the world’s production and consumption of energy. Global production and consumption of coal, oil, and natural gas all increased in 2023, and as a result fossil fuels made up 81% of global energy consumption as shown above.”, Visual Capitalist & Energy Institute, July 2024
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Global & Regional Travel & Living
“Staying Healthy at 35,000 Feet – With the summer travel season in full swing, board-certified infectious disease physician Carl Abraham, M.D., assistant professor at the College of Osteopathic Medicine’s Jonesboro location (NYITCOM-Arkansas), arms passengers with information to stay healthy at 35,000 feet. Abraham notes that some people may be surprised about the risk of germ spread on most airplanes. ‘Disinfecting touched objects, like seatbelts or trays, won’t hurt, although airlines are supposed to make sure areas are cleaned thoroughly between flights,’ he adds. But, the real hotspot might be the airplane lavatory.”, New York Tech news, July 2, 2024
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Book Review – New Section
“The Fast Future Blur: Discover Transformative Interconnections Shaping the Future – Fast Future Blur provides invaluable insights and strategic frameworks to navigate the complexity of our current period of rapid and radical transformation (‘Fast Future’ phase). Focused on the interconnected nature of the evolution underway, the book serves as an eye-opener for business leaders, providing guidance in understanding this dynamic and complex landscape. Fast Future Blur delves into 12 key areas of change, including platform businesses, regenerative innovation, artificial intelligence, the future of healthcare, the future of work, the future of mobility, blockchain, metaverse, virtual & augmented reality, leadership, agility, fintech, and the impact from 6 inter-connections. With compelling, powerful, and timely insights from the Fast Future Executive faculty ― a global consortium of experts and industry leaders, many of whom are associated with the World Economic Forum, top business and technology schools and leading global companies.”, Amazon, July 2024
Editor’s Note: I attended a session of The Fast Future Blur 2024 Summit on June 11th at the Executive Next Practices event at the University of California, Irvine, Beall Center for Innovation. We had 19 speakers from the Fast Future Executive faculty who came in from around the world. Wow!
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Book Review – New Section
“The Fast Future Blur: Discover Transformative Interconnections Shaping the Future – Fast Future Blur provides invaluable insights and strategic frameworks to navigate the complexity of our current period of rapid and radical transformation (‘Fast Future’ phase). Focused on the interconnected nature of the evolution underway, the book serves as an eye-opener for business leaders, providing guidance in understanding this dynamic and complex landscape. Fast Future Blur delves into 12 key areas of change, including platform businesses, regenerative innovation, artificial intelligence, the future of healthcare, the future of work, the future of mobility, blockchain, metaverse, virtual & augmented reality, leadership, agility, fintech, and the impact from 6 inter-connections. With compelling, powerful, and timely insights from the Fast Future Executive faculty ― a global consortium of experts and industry leaders, many of whom are associated with the World Economic Forum, top business and technology schools and leading global companies.”, Amazon, July 2024
Editor’s Note: I attended a session of The Fast Future Blur 2024 Summit on June 11th at the Executive Next Practices event at the University of California, Irvine, Beall Center for Innovation. We had 19 speakers from the Fast Future Executive faculty who came in from around the world. Wow!
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Country & Regional Updates
Canada
“Canada set to be fastest growing economy in G7 in 2025, IMF forecasts – Latest outlook puts this country ahead of United States and United Kingdom. The IMF predicts the global economy is headed toward a “soft landing,” but warns risks remain for the inflation outlook, especially in advanced economies. ‘The good news is that, as headline shocks receded, inflation came down without a recession’, wrote Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, economic counsellor and the director of research at the IMF, in a blog post accompanying the release. “The bad news is that energy and food price inflation are now almost back to pre-pandemic levels in many countries, while overall inflation is not.”, International Monetary Fund, July 2024
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China
“Microsoft Orders China Staff to Use iPhones for Work and Drop Android – Company will block corporate access from Android in China Microsoft has been tightening cybersecurity following attacks. Microsoft has been ramping up security worldwide after incurring repeat attacks from state-sponsored hackers. Microsoft Corp. told employees in China that starting in September they’ll only be able to use iPhones for work, effectively cutting off Android-powered devices from the workplace. The US company will soon require employees based there to use Apple Inc. devices to verify their identities when logging in, according to an internal memo reviewed by Bloomberg News.”, Bloomberg, July 8, 2024
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“Comparing the Economies of U.S. and China in 3 Key Metrics – Starting with GDP, we used 2024 estimates from the latest edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (April 2024). Based on these figures, the United States and China combine for a massive 43.2% share of the global economy. It’s also interesting to note that America’s share of global GDP has actually been increasing in recent years, from a low of 21.1% in 2011. This is partly due to its relatively strong recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The U.S. dominates when it comes to stock market valuation, accounting for 61% of the global total as of Feb. 29, 2024.”, Visual Capitalist & International Monetary Fund, June 3, 2024
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India
“India Sets Subdued Economic Growth Forecast as Risks Mount – Government projects growth of 6.5%-7% vs 8.2% last year Finance minister to give annual budget speech on Tuesday. India’s government set a fairly conservative economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year, concerned about mounting global risks. The economy will likely expand 6.5%-7% in the year through March 2025, the Ministry of Finance said its Economic Survey report released Monday. That compares with 8.2% in the past financial year and the central bank’s projection of 7.2% for the current year. Modi must also balance demands from his coalition allies to spend billions of dollars in their states, with pressure from credit rating companies to curb government debt.”, Bloomberg, July 22, 2024
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Japan
“More than 40% of Japanese companies have no plan to make use of AI – The survey, conducted for Reuters by Nikkei Research, pitched a range of questions to 506 companies over July 3-12 with roughly 250 firms responding, on condition of anonymity. About 24% of respondents said they have already introduced AI in their businesses and 35% are planning to do so, while the remaining 41% have no such plans, illustrating varying degrees of embracing the technological innovation in corporate Japan. Asked for objectives when adopting AI in a question allowing multiple answers, 60% of respondents said they were trying to cope with a shortage of workers, while 53% aimed to cut labour costs and 36% cited acceleration in research and development.”, Reuter, July 17, 2024
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Saudi Arabia
“Saudi Arabia takes first step towards relaxing alcohol laws – Saudi Arabia has opened an off-licence in the diplomatic quarter of its capital, Riyadh, which is the kingdom’s first commercial outlet for the sale of alcohol beverages since a ban on the public sale and consumption of alcohol was imposed in 1952. We expect further relaxation of alcohol laws, together with the implementation of other social reforms and initiatives, in the years ahead as the government pushes ahead with its transformative Vision 2030 development plan, which includes the creation of a tourism offering that boasts major hotels, resorts, entertainment venues, sporting locations and (currently alcohol-free) restaurants and bars.”, Economist Intelligence Unit, February 23, 2024
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“One crucial piece of advise for business in Saudi – Landing that lucrative contract or big deal in Saudi Arabia requires much more than an impressive pitch deck and competitive pricing. One of the most crucial pieces of advice for doing business in the Kingdom is this: take the time to deeply understand the culture and build strong relationships before ever pitching your products or services. Why is this so important? Saudi Arabian culture places an extremely high value on personal connections, trust, and commitment. Saudis want to work with those they know and have established a bond with. Attempting to jump straight into business negotiations without first investing in relationship building is a surefire way to be met with skepticism and difficulty gaining traction.”, Middle East Sunday Pages by Corina Goetz, July 21, 2024
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Southeast Asia
“Southeast Asia’s economies continue to sustain their growth momentum in the first quarter 2024. GDP grew in all economies, with growth in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore increasing during this period, while Thailand and Vietnam recorded slower growth. Southeast Asia’s economies continue to sustain their growth momentum in the first quarter 2024. GDP grew in all economies, with growth in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore increasing during this period, while Thailand and Vietnam recorded slower growth.”, McKinsey & Co., June, 2024
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Turkey
This country has seen its wealth growth explode since 2008. It’s not the U.S. – Individual wealth has been soaring since 2008 in places some might find surprising, such as Turkey. That’s according to UBS’s 2024 Global Wealth Report, released on Wednesday. The report shows that globally, people have been getting progressively wealthier, with dramatic rises in some places. This chart shows average wealth growth from 2022 to 2023 in local currencies. On this metric, Turkey has surged above the rest at more than 157% (in dollar terms, that growth is 63%).”, MarketWatch, July 10, 2024
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United States
“U.S. will fall behind in the AI race without natural gas, Williams Companies CEO says – ‘The only way we’re going to be able to keep up with the kind of power demand and the electrification that’s already afoot is natural gas,’ Williams Companies CEO Alan Armstrong said in an interview Thursday. ‘If we deny ourselves that we’re going to fall behind in the AI race.’ The tech sector’s expansion of data centers to support AI and the adoption of electric vehicles is projected to add 290 terawatt hours of electricity demand by the end of the decade in the U.S., according to a recent report by the energy consulting firm Rystad. This load growth is equivalent to the entire electricity demand of Turkey, the world’s 18th largest economy.”, CNBC, July 19, 2024
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“Small Businesses Still Struggling – Small business (SMB) owners continue to face economic headwinds, including rent delinquency and revenue loss and stress around high interest rates and spiking labor costs. That’s according to Alignable’s June Revenue & Rent Report. The report was based on 3,690 responses to a poll of randomly selected small business owners in June. It also drew information from past survey responses. 72% of SMBs are earning less now monthly than pre-Covid, a slight increase from May’s 71%, breaking a 2024 record. Post-pandemic businesses are also struggling with 72% earning less than last year. Cumulative inflation—35% of SMB owners cite this as their top worry, up from 33% in May. Rising labor costs—79% of SMB employers are paying more for labor, up nine percentage points from May. Cash crisis—38% of SMBs have one month or less of cash on hand.”, Franchising.com, July 18, 2024
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Brand & Franchising News
“Olive Garden parent Darden Restaurants is buying Chuy’s for $605M – It will be the second acquisition for Darden in as many years and brings Mexican cuisine to its portfolio for the first time. Chuy’s has 101 restaurants and specializes in Tex-Mex cuisine. Darden Restaurants, the parent of Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse and other casual-dining brands, is acquiring Chuy’s Tex-Mex for $605 million in cash, the company announced Wednesday. The 101-unit, Austin-based Chuy’s is known for its scratch-made Tex-Mex cuisine and the funky, eclectic atmosphere of its restaurants.”, Restaurant Business, July 17, 2024
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“China Isn’t Done Tormenting Nike or Starbucks – Global Brands Hit Local Competition. China has become a more challenging market for global consumer brands like Nike and Starbucks, and investors are beginning to rethink the value of their Chinese business, according to a new report from TD Cowen analysts. Chinese consumers still like global brands like Nike, Adidas, Skechers andLululemon, which each generate a midteen share of their sales from China. But investors are beginning to discount the cash flows that companies generate from China as domestic competition and geopolitical risks intensify, TD Cowen analyst John Kernan, who co-wrote the report, tells Barron’s. Shares of some of these companies have already taken a hit as China’s economic recovery has sputtered, making consumers reluctant to spend as the property market—a major store of household wealth—is still struggling.”, Barron’s, July 18, 2024
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“Aussie boxing franchise UBX to enter United Arab Emirates – Brisbane-based boxing franchise UBX has announced its eighth international expansion with 18 locations planned in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), adding to an existing 100-plus gyms globally and hot on the heels of its recent campaign launch “Boxing is for Everyone” with adidas.
The company has appointed Mohsan Bari as the master franchisor for UBX UAE with initial sites being sourced in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. ‘In recent years, the Middle East has become a hotspot for combat sports, and the UAE’s enthusiasm for boxing makes it the perfect next step for UBX as interest in the sport is followed by participation,’ says UBX co-founder and managing director Tim West.”, Business New Australia, July 17, 2024
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“Domino’s to shutter 100 stores – The board of Domino’s Pizza Enterprises (Australia) waited until after the market closed yesterday to announce store closures in two of its largest markets, Japan and France, which will almost entirely offset the net effect of planned store growth globally over the course of FY25.”, Business News Australia, July 18, 2024
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“Herbalife expects China to become its largest market – China is expected to double the size of Herbalife’s India market in about five years, which is currently its largest in terms of sales, Herbalife President Stephan Gratziani said in Shanghai. The United States-based nutrition product manufacturer is confident in the Chinese market given the growth potential in the country’s health and well-being sector. ‘In 5-7 years, China is expected to double the size of our India market, which is currently its largest market in terms of sales followed by the US and Mexico,’ Gratziani said in a recent interview. Currently, Herballife service providers operate about 3,200 community health-care and nutritional advisory clubs in China, and the number could grow significantly in the coming years given the potential, especially in lower tier cities.”, Shine, July 17, 2024. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
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“McDonald s plans to have more than 10,000 restaurants in mainland China by 2028 with more than 60 percent of employees born after 1995 – McDonald’s entered the Chinese mainland market in 1990. In 2017, McDonald’s China became McDonald’s largest international franchise market in the world, and CITIC Consortium became the controlling shareholder. Before the “Golden Arches” era, McDonald’s focused more on market development in first- and second-tier cities. Now, about 50% of McDonald’s restaurants are located in third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities.”, Yicai, July 17, 2024
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“Piccolo Me parent plans 100 stores for Sol Bowl acquisition – Piccolo Me parent company FABE (Food and Beverage Enterprises) has added Sydney-based Sol Bowl to its portfolio of food brands. FABE has big goals for its newest addition: 100 stores, international expansion and co-branding with Piccolo Me. There are another five Sol Bowl sites planned for New South Wales and ACT before FABE takes the brand interstate. Sol Bowl founder Lilly Semaan launched the healthy-fast-food business as Soul Bowl in Parramatta in 2017. She has since refined the branding and added locations in Baulkham Hills and Rosehill.”, Inside Retail (Australia), July 17, 2024
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.
For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
And download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business, used by many companies for strategic planning, at this link:
Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking
China and Global Supply Chain Update May 26, 2020
William (Bill) Edwards, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), has been doing business in China for 38 years, starting with living in China from late 1982 through mid 1985. He has been the Master Franchisee for a U.S. franchise in China. EGS opened an office in Beijing in 2014 and we are currently helping four U.S. brands enter the Mainland China market. Our U.S. Clients are all consumer-faced franchise brands.
The following are extracts from a variety of information sources and our network inside China. This is bipartisan and does not reflect a point of view.
“China may become one of many hubs as companies diversify manufacturing after coronavirus shock: The coronavirus is ‘a wake-up call for pretty much every company,’ said Gerry Mattios, expert vice president at Bain. ‘The number one item on the agenda is, “how do I build resilience in my supply chain?’ ‘China is still a very attractive total supply chain solution,’ said How Jit Lim, a managing director with consulting firm Alvarez & Marsal. ‘There are very few countries in the world where you can find almost everything you need to build something.’” CNBC, May 25, 2020
“Coronavirus won’t kill globalisation – but a shakeup is inevitable: Globalisation relies on complex links – global value chains (GVCs) – that connect producers across multiple countries. These producers often use highly specialised intermediate goods, or “inputs”, produced by only one distant, overseas supplier. COVID-19 has severely disrupted these links…..But GVCs follow the principle of efficiency. They are the result of businesses sourcing the best possible inputs to meet their production needs at the lowest cost – wherever those inputs come from. This is good news for globalisation’s survival. While efficiency remains the main target, businesses will continue to shop globally.”, The Conversation, May 23,2020
https://bit.ly/ConversationGVCs
“European Luxury Is More Chinese Than Ever: Designer labels will need to contemplate a wave of European store closures as they become more dependent on China for sales. Chinese luxury consumers, who are almost two decades younger and less indebted than their Western counterparts, can afford to spend a larger chunk of their disposable income on designer baubles. Already there are signs of what stock analysts are calling “revenge spending” as lockdowns lift in Chinese cities and shoppers head to the mall. Consulting firm Bain estimates that by 2025, up to 49% of global luxury sales will be made to Chinese shoppers, an increase from the consulting firm’s earlier forecast of 46%.”, Wall Street Journal, May 22, 2020
https://bit.ly/EuropeanLuxuryChina
“Business travel showing signs of life in China: While the Chinese hotel industry saw a significant performance increase during the Labour Day holiday to start May, some urban markets saw continued demand after the holiday, fueled by a modest return for business travel. Business transient was also strong enough to maintain performance levels following the holiday in Shanghai, with occupancies hovering in the 30% range. While better than performance seen so far in 2020, it still lags well behind what was seen in previous years. ‘For perspective, midweek this time of year in a normal year (occupancy) is about 90%,’ said Jesper Palmqvist, area director for the Asia/Pacific region for STR.”, Hotel News Now, May 20, 2020
Asia Biweekly Business Update Blog – 4/27/2020
(This is an update of our March 9, 2020 China Blog which now will cover Asia)
Bill Edwards, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), has been doing business in China for 45 years, including living in China, Hong Kong and Indonesia. EGS is currently helping U.S. brands enter Cambodia, Mainland China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, the Philippines and Thailand. Our U.S. Clients are all consumer-faced franchise brands.
The following are extracts from a variety of information sources and our Associates across Asia on consumer-focused issues during the COVID emergency.
Introduction
Mainland China and South Korea are seeing businesses starting to reopen. Singapore and Malaysia remain shut down. Indonesia and the Philippines are allowing restaurants to do takeaway and delivery only. Japan is mixed. Vietnam has done a good job controlling the virus and will soon allow businesses to reopen. Thailand will start reopening the week of May 4th. Ramadan, which lasts until May 23rd, is a challenge for businesses in Indonesia and Malaysia.
Asia General
“From coffee in Hong Kong to burgers in Malaysia and Ramadan in Singapore – here’s how Asia’s small businesses cope with Covid-19. Asia’s SMEs are rising to the challenges posed by the coronavirus by adapting their business models and focusing on the positives. Here are five case studies, taken from across the region, of how SMEs are adapting to the challenges posed by Covid-19 – and proving that even the smallest of businesses can have the biggest of hearts.” South China Morning Post, 4/25/2020
“In Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim country, hundreds of millions are unable to congregate during the holy month of Ramadan. Muslims in neighbouring Singapore and Malaysia are also having a more solemn Ramadan as Covid-19 social distancing rules are enforced.” South China Morning Post, April 24, 2020
https://bit.ly/MelancholyRamadan
Mainland China
“Co-founder of Microsoft Bill Gates announced that stores of the company in China had resumed their operations that may be a concrete example of how society may return to ‘business as usual.’ Microsoft already sent thousands of its workers back to China, where they would resume their posts and comply with precautionary measures to prevent the spread of the pandemic.” Business Times, April 24th, 2020
AmCham China has released the results of a second Flash Survey that evaluates the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on its member companies. Almost 120 companies responded to the survey. Roughly half of the surveyed members say they are experiencing significant revenue declines, compared with 28% last month. 39% of companies report a drop in demand for their products, up 6 percentage points from last month. 60% (up 10 percentage points month-on-month) said 2020 revenues will decline anywhere between 10% and 50% or more if business cannot return to normal before August 30. Read the full AmCham China Quarterly report at this link:
https://bit.ly/AmChamChinaQuarterly
Indonesia
“Indonesia to ban air, sea travel to end-May: officials. Indonesia will temporarily ban domestic and international air and sea travel, with some exceptions, starting this week to prevent a further spread of the coronavirus, the transport ministry said in a statement on Friday. The announcement came as the holy month of Ramadan began in the world’s largest Muslim majority country, and the government has already banned citizens’ traditional annual exodus from the cities to the provinces during the holiday period.” Reuters, April 23, 2020
“With most schools and universities in Jakarta (Indonesia) shut down even before official rules on social distancing went into effect, the transition has been sudden and uncertain for many. With Large Scale Physical Distancing extended in Jakarta until at least May 22, schools will continue to function online. AmCham (Indonesia) held a special forum on the situation on Thursday, April 23, to look at the challenges for schools, students and parents.” Learn more about the conference findings at this link:
https://bit.ly/AmChamIndonesiaSchools
Japan
“In recent weeks, the number of covid-19 cases has increased, and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has called for an 80 percent reduction in person-to-person contact. Yet, some pachinko parlors refuse to close. Earlier this month, Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike included pachinko parlors, along with bars and clubs, in the establishments she was requesting shut down to reduce the spread of the novel coronavirus. Many pachinko parlors followed the request, but some did not.” Kotaru, April 23, 2020. See pictures the lack of social distancing at this link:
“Japan’s new economic stimulus package in response to the coronavirus pandemic is estimated to boost real gross domestic product by about 4.4%, Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said on Friday. Japan has boosted its new economic stimulus package to a record $1.1 trillion to expand cash payouts to its citizens, as the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic threatens to push the world’s third-largest economy deeper into recession.: Reuters, April 23, 2020
Malaysia
Malaysia has one of the highest COVID cases and death counts in Asia. Essentially all business is closed. A major challenge for the Ramadan period.
“The (Malaysian) Prime Minister announced that the MCO (movement control order) which was first imposed on March 18 to 31 and later continued with a second phase from April 1 to 14, and a third phase from April 15 to 28 – would be on for a further two weeks. The government, said the Prime Minister, was considering allowing more specified sectors and sub-sectors to resume operations but subject to strict conditions to ensure the people’s health and safety.” The Star, April 23, 2020
https://bit.ly/MalaysiaShutDownExtended
Philippines
In the Philippines, the almost total business lock down is slightly easing. Some Chili’s® and Denny’s® restaurants have reopened for takeaway and delivery. But local sources say the Manila government has issued passes, only one selected member of each household is permitted to go out for food, groceries and to pharmacies.
“The coronavirus outbreak will likely send the Philippine economy into its first annual contraction in more than two decades this year, before it pulls back up for a U-shaped recovery in 2021, the central bank governor said on Saturday. Key cities in the Philippines, among the fastest growing economies in Asia during the pre-pandemic period, are under strict quarantine measures since mid-March. Philippine gross domestic product would likely shrink by 0.2% in 2020 before bouncing back to about 7.7% as policy support measures gain traction, central bank Governor Benjamin Diokno said in a statement.” Reuters, April 25, 2020
Singapore
Singapore has been under a partial lockdown since April 7 that may be extended past May 4 due to the recent jump in coronavirus cases in migrant workers. Many businesses, especially F&B, are suffering and may have to close for business due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The Singapore government has come out with a S$60 billion (US$40+ billion) budget to help businesses, employers, employees, & citizens.
South Korea
Churches, bars, gyms, restaurants are starting to reopen. Travel is not doing well. 400 McDonald’s are open for drive through. From 900 new COVID cases on February 29th, there were 8 new cases on April 23rd. “Amid the rapid changes caused by COVID-19, there is optimistic recovery progress of American businesses in Korea. Many companies are adapting quickly and finding success in unexpected ways amid these times of uncertainty.” James Kim, Chairman and CEO of AmCham Korea. This link is to a CNBC interview with Mr. Kim:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0l3oVv2wJYo&t=2s
Early in the coronavirus timeline, Korea created an app that kept track of infected people. It prohibited large gatherings and required virtual church services. Key was wide spread testing. They even had an election.
Thailand
AMCHAM Thailand had a Video Conference on April 22. Here are some of takeaways: The ban on sale of alcohol beverages has been extended until the end of the month (April 30) to discourage further social gatherings. All foreigners have been granted automatic visa extension for another 3 months until July 31. It is estimated that Thailand will end the year with just over 16 million international tourists, far below the 40 million goal. However, they have stated that tourism activities in Thailand could resume as early as May. AmCham Thailand members remain vastly positive toward the measures taken by the Thai government to curb the spread of Covid-19. See the full results are the link below:
Although the number of new COVID-19 cases in Thailand had a sharp drop to 15 cases on 26 April 2020, the state of emergency is extended another month to end on May 31, 2020. The Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) issued the guideline of the preparation to reopen the businesses under the Covid-19 situation. High-risk business such as bars, pubs, entertainment venues will remain closed. Medium-risk business such as barber shops, spa, restaurants, department stores and shopping malls would be allowed to reopen gradually. All airports in Thailand are expected to resume their services on the 1st of May after they have closed temporary for a month.
The Thai Cabinet approved a stimulus package for soft loans to help businesses. For example, a 6-month debt moratorium on principal and interest for SMEs. “Seth” Sethaphong Phadungpisuth, CFE, Managing Director of Gnosis Company Limited, Thailand.
Vietnam
Sean Ngo, CEO of VF Franchise Consulting based in Ho Chi Minh City, reports on LinkedIn that Vietnam will be one of the first, if not the first country, in Southeast Asia to cautiously lift the lockdown. Social distancing, temperature checks at businesses, and better hygiene practices will not change. See the full US News report at the following link:
In Summary
We keep our thumb on pulse of the Asia business market, monitoring daily changes and trends, and have insight on how you can protect and grow your brand in this critical market. We will update this Asia business climate blog about every other week.
Feel free to reach out to Bill Edwards, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc., (EGS) to ask questions or share best practices at +1 949 375 1896 or bedwards@edwardsglobal.com.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change”. Darwin
China Blog Update – 4/13/20
(This is an update of our March 9, 2020 China Blog)
Bill Edwards, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), has been doing business in China for 37 years, starting with living in China from late 1982 through mid 1985. He has been the Master Franchisee for a U.S. franchise in China. EGS opened an office in Beijing in 2014 and we are currently helping four U.S. brands enter the Mainland China market. Our U.S. Clients are all consumer-faced franchise brands.
Needless to say, things right now are different than ever before. The following are extracts from a variety of information sources and our network inside China on consumer-focused issues post the Wuhan Event. This is bipartisan and does not reflect a point of view.
Employment
“The official urban unemployment rate of 6.2 per cent in February understates the true level of joblessness and doesn’t include China’s 280m migrant worker population, many of whom haven’t returned to work yet. Close to 500,000 small and medium-sized businesses, the heart of the economy, which were sidelined politically before the crisis, are reported to have failed in the first quarter alone., Financial Times, April 10, 2020
Consumers Trends
Burger King, Dairy Queen, KFC, McDonalds and Starbucks closed over 7,500 restaurants in China by the end of February. Today, over 90% of these restaurants are back open.
Our company’s Managing Director for Greater China based in China says, “the businesses of China have recovered about 60-90% depending on the region. We are still required to wear face masks everywhere and practice social distancing (which is not common in a densely-populated country). Domestic travel is still difficult because place to place travelers have to be quarantined back and forth. Retail, fitness and F&B businesses will need 3-6 months to return to normal levels as people still prefer to eat at home and order in as they did for more than 40 days in February and March. Schools and universities will not start up again until September for the new school year.
“Shopping malls and stores in China have quickly reopened as the government promotes a return to business as usual, only to see consumers stay home and keep their purse strings tight or shop online. Customer traffic is ‘less than half of usual levels’ said a worker at a Walmart store in a Shanghai suburb late last month. The government has in recent weeks highlighted a brisk recovery in business activity, touting efforts to contain the new coronavirus. Shopping centres and restaurants that had closed to stem the outbreak’s spread have rushed to reopen. About 80 per cent of restaurants and more than 90 per cent of commercial facilities have resumed business across China, according to the Ministry of Commerce. But consumers, increasingly wary of government pronouncements and state media, do not feel safe going about their business as usual” Extracts from an article by the Financial Times on April 11, 2020
Life does go on. Yum China Holdings, Inc.‘s newly-acquired controlling interest in the casual-dining brand Huang Ji Huang group, a simmer pot concept, and emerging fast-food restaurant San Fen Bao, to its portfolio. Founded in 2004 and headquartered in Beijing, Huang Ji Huang has over 640 restaurants in China and internationally. Following the acquisition, Yum China will establish a ‘Chinese dining business unit’ comprising three core Chinese dining brands: Little Sheep, East Dawning, and Huang Ji Huang. “Global Franchise’, April 8, 2020
Good news for Chinese small businesses. “Insurance companies in China are taking on an unusual mission: They are promising to cover business losses from the coronavirus pandemic, as hundreds of millions of people return to work, and the country tries to rev up its economic engine. Since February, dozens of Chinese property-and-casualty insurers have rolled out new policies or expanded existing ones to provide compensation when workers contract Covid-19, the respiratory disease caused by the new coronavirus. The insurance payouts would help companies that are forced to close temporarily if staffers fall sick, other employees have to be quarantined and business activities are disrupted. Some of the policies are provided free-of-charge by insurers, while others have low premiums that are subsidized by local governments. Many sellers of coronavirus-related coverage are state-owned insurers, which can likely fall back on state support in the event of major losses.” Wall Street Journal, April 10, 2020
Most Chinese factories are now back to operating at around 80% of capacity. Some are pushing 100%. Foxconn, the Taiwanese contract manufacturer which assembles the majority of Apple’s iPhones in China, says that with the help of tests for the virus and chest x-rays it has been able to get all its operations on the mainland back up and running with no risk to the health of its workers. In a call to investors on April 1st it reported that it was on target to provide Apple with all the 5g iPhones it needs for the launch of the device this autumn. Many of the measures that made China’s great reopening possible were boring-but-important changes to existing protocols; more hygiene measures, more separation between workers, and screening (companies in China and elsewhere are trying to get their hands on a lot of tests for sars-cov-2 infection). The Economist, April 8, 2020
“Chinese consumers are shopping again, in a timely boost for the beleaguered economy, as they regain some semblance of normal life after unprecedented lockdowns aimed at containing the coronavirus pandemic. Demand for travel, cosmetics, outdoor gear and food has surged in recent weeks as policy-driven stimulus kicked in, workers returned to offices and factories and the government started easing restrictions on people’s movement. Transport bookings rose more than 50 per cent, while hotel reservations increased by 60 per cent during the three-day tomb-sweeping Ching Ming Festival through April 6, according to Trip.com Group. Online retail orders have likewise boomed, according to e-commerce site Pinduoduo. South China Morning Post, April 8, 2020
Savills China Retail believes that China’s retail sector will fully recover by the second half of the year, once as the country has recouped from the COVID-19 pandemic, reported Retail News Asia. Entertainment centres, shopping malls, restaurants, and gyms that were affected by the government-mandated lockdown in late January are predicted to flourish post-coronavirus, as consumers cautiously retreat back to their old shopping habits. At present, shopping malls in Shanghai have 30 percent fewer shoppers compared to before the outbreak. However, starting today, malls will return to their regular operating hours, from 10 AM to 10 PM, and most retail tenants will reopen to the public. Since the reopening, some sources have already revealed long queues outside fashion stores in IAPM mall, as well as difficulty in finding parking slots and seats at coffee shops. Even though some restaurants have permanently closed due to the unaffordability of labour and rent costs during the outbreak, those who did survive were allowed to reopen as soon as they have reapplied.: Source: Property Guru Report, early April.
Car Sales
(Car) “quarterly sales declined 42% on year to 3.7 million vehicles, the government-backed China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said Friday. While demand started to return in March as China’s epidemic situation stabilized, sales for that month were still down 43% on year at 1.4 million vehicles. Sales had plunged 79% in February.
The rebound is already struggling to sustain its momentum. The increase in visits to dealerships trailed off in April, said Lin Huaibin, an analyst at IHS Markit, as Chinese consumers—their confidence still fragile—watched the virus ravaging the U.S. and Europe and realized the scale of the crisis facing the global economy. This fresh “demand shock” would cause auto sales to fall by about 14% this month from the same period a year earlier, Mr. Lin said, compared with a very weak April 2019, when sales fell 15% on year.
Government and Landlord Support
Just in from Deloitte: The Chinese central government has unveiled a raft of measures to support the market amid the novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak. The support plan for SME’s mainly includes:
- Easing tax burden: on individuals and corporations
- Financial support: increase credit supply, reduce difficulty and cost of loan applications
- Stability of employment: delay collection of social insurance premium.
Also, property developers/landlords, including Wanda Group, China Resources, Poly Group, Country Garden, etc. have announced waiving rent for tenants for 1-2 month durations.
Travel
“United UAL Airlines could announce it will soon resume passenger flights to China, which is rebounding after strong measures brought the coronavirus outbreak under control. United would likely fly between San Francisco and Shanghai Pudong. Demand is increasing for United as business resumes in China and its U.S. corporate customers re-establish supply chains.” Forbes, April 10, 2020
But….” Hotel stay in Beijing only with negative corona test from April 12. In order to stay in a hotel in Beijing from April 12, guests will have to provide a negative result of a nucleic acid test that was taken within the last 7 days as well as national or Beijing health codes that show no abnormal status. China Legal Services, April 10, 2020
In Summary
We keep our thumb on pulse of the Chinese business market, monitoring daily changes and trends, and have insight on how you can protect and grow your brand in this critical market. We will update this China blog about every other week.
Feel free to reach out to Bill Edwards, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc., (EGS) to ask questions or share best practices at +1 949 375 1896 or bedwards@edwardsglobal.com.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change”. Darwin
Our World’s Update – Monday, March 30th, 2020
We are monitoring 22 countries, 25 daily international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing environment. Based on decades of international business experience, we believe it is critical to remember two famous British sayings:
“Keep Calm and Carry On”
“Keep Calm and Breathe Deeply”
A month ago, I gave a talk to a local California business group on what life was like in a locked down China. I sited the quarantine at home for over 40 days of our Beijing based managing director and his family. His 8-year-old daughter was kept inside for these 40+ days and was going to her international school online.
This event has changed how Chinese view working from home, as they did not see this as viable before. The result of millions going to offices, is a huge number of high-rise office buildings in big cities. However, now remote work is looking good. My daughter in Cincinnati has been trying to get her company to let her work from home for years. As of today, she has been told it is mandatory to work from home through April.
By the way, our Beijing managing director’s daughter will be back at school with her friends in April. Meanwhile, my 9-year-old granddaughter in Cincinnati is just beginning her own online education from her home.
Never have we seen a disruption like the one caused by Coronavirus in our history. As of this today, “OpenTable bookings at restaurants worldwide are down by over 80% from a month ago. Retail footfall is down 50-80%, depending on the country”, Financial Times, March 22, 2020. Other franchises where customers gather like gyms are 60-100% shut down. Burger King, Dairy Queen, KFC, McDonalds and Starbucks closed over 7,500 restaurants in China last month. Today. 90% of these restaurants are back open.
Our U.S. restaurant clients have closed almost all their units worldwide – expect for China and Korea soon as well. Our clients are almost all going to remote working, clearing out their large offices around the U.S. They have also put into place a no ‘over water’ travel policy for the next three months. We are lucky that our company has been virtual for years. Not just the six of us in the U.S. working remotely, but also the 30+ members of our team on the ground around the world.
One of the groups we are working with to become the Italy licensee for one of our U.S. restaurant brand clients, owns and operates almost 100 restaurants in Northern Italy. They are 100% shutdown with hundreds of employees impacted.
As a Diamond Medallion frequent flyer with 2.5 million miles on Delta, it was interesting to read that Delta Air Lines will emerge as a “smaller” carrier, following the Coronavirus crisis, warns chief financial officer Paul Jacobson, as the airline prepares to wind down the majority of its schedule by April. “We’re going to be smaller coming out of this,” he told employees during an internal webinar last week.
Rod Young, global chairman of Cartridge World and chairman of Sydney-based DC Strategy Group, said “the wild card in looking forward for the Asia Pacific region is the Coronavirus pandemic and this is written in the expectation that the response by China and the rest of the world will see the community and the economy recover some normality after a significant impact on global growth and consumer habits.”
Our company’s associate for Southeast Asia, Sean Ngo, CEO and co-founder of VF Franchise Consulting, Ho Chi Minh City, says “people in Asia took the Coronavirus issue much more seriously earlier than in the West, because of their SARs experience in 2003 and the region is expected to gradually recover in the next – three to six months. Countries in Southeast Asia closed all international flights, while only allowing for domestic travel. The main concern in countries like Vietnam, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines is about the virus sneaking back into these countries from international visitors.”
An AmCham China webinar from Beijing late last week had the top China-based executives of four international companies explaining how they handled the coronavirus shutdown starting in late February. They said their order of priorities were: (1) their people; (2) their internal business; (3) their suppliers; and (4) their relationships with government regulators. Wisdom for us all in these times.
This immense disruption has slowed down new business development around the world. But it is also causing companies to evaluate their businesses, in order to fine tune operations and systems and better prepare for a brighter and stronger future.
Contact me directly at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com to learn how to protect and grow your brand in the current business climate.
