Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 138, Tuesday, July 8, 2025
“Alone we can do so little; together we can do so much.”
Helen Keller
Welcome to the 138th edition of the Global Business Update, where we track the signals that matter for international business leaders, investors, and expansion-focused companies. As this edition goes to press on July 7th, the US has imposed new tariffs on several countries and moved the day when new deals need to be done to August 1. This edition features the newly released Q3 2025 GlobalVue™ Country Ranking, our proprietary index that evaluates the world’s top markets for international business expansion. Several countries climbed the list this quarter thanks to improved GDP outlooks, rising investor confidence, and political stabilization. Others dropped due to growing economic headwinds, policy uncertainty, or waning capital flows. We also highlight shifting executive sentiment in the face of global trade realignment. McKinsey’s latest global survey shows that trade policy uncertainty has overtaken inflation as the primary concern for business leaders, prompting many to pause or rethink international investments. In this edition you will also find:
A deep dive into Asia’s demographic epicenter—the Yuxi Circle—home to over half the world’s population
An update on AI-driven disruption, from Salesforce’s internal automation to Yum China’s operational overhaul
The World Economic Forum’s Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2025, from structural battery composites to GLP-1s for neurodegenerative diseases
Geopolitical and economic shifts including NATO’s expanded defense spending targets, Canada’s first LNG exports to Asia, and Vietnam’s new U.S. trade deal
Regional snapshots on CEO confidence, Eurozone GDP growth, Chinese outbound mining deals, and the global trade/tariff reset under the Trump administration
And how YUM China embraces AI to boost efficiency and profitability.
From logistics and labor to policy and platforms, today’s cross-border challenges are more dynamic than ever.
This issue’s book is The Thinking Machine by Stephen Witt, How Nvidia, Jensen Huang, and a Bold Bet on AI Changed the Global Tech Landscape. In June 2024, Nvidia became the most valuable company in the world—a stunning milestone for a business that began in a California Denny’s three decades earlier. The Thinking Machine tells the inside story of how Nvidia transitioned from designing video game chips to powering the AI revolution—and in the process, redefined the future of computing. This is the story of the company that is inventing the future.
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But First……The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. We do not get involved with or report on politics!
PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896
Link to our current and past newsletters: https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“People do business with people they know and like.”, Mary Thompson, CEO, BNI Worldwide
“Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path and leave a trail.”, Ralph Waldo Emerson
“Business opportunities are like buses, there’s always another one coming.”, Richard Branson
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Highlights in issue #138:
GlobalVue™ Country Ranking July 2025
Economic conditions outlook, June 2025
The 40 Best Countries in the World, As Determined by the People
CEO confidence registers sharpest fall-off in a half-century
The Yuxi Circle: The World’s Most Densely Populated Area
Dollar Index Slumps 10.8% in Biggest First-Half Loss Since 1973
The Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2025
Unlocking M&A Success in the Franchise Industry
Brand Global News Section: Burger King®, Firehouse Subs®, McDonald’s, Tim Hortons®, Popeyes®, and YUM China
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Please sign up for this amazing future looking August 6th event at the Beall Center for Innovation and Entrepreneurship at the University of California, Irvine at this link: www.enpinstitute.com/events
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
GlobalVue™ Country Ranking July 2025 – The latest version of the Edwards Global Services, Inc. quarterly country ranking as places to do business has just been published. Several countries moved up the ranking in the last quarter due to improved GDP growth projections for 2025, improved investor interest in new projects or changes in country political and/or economic stability. Several countries went down in the ranking for the same reasons. The GlobalVue™ ranking has been published quarterly since 2001 and is used by companies to plan and evaluate their international expansion.
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“Economic conditions outlook, June 2025 – Surveyed executives increasingly point to changes to trade policy and relationships as a disruptive force they expect to affect the world economy, their countries, and their companies. The perceived risk from shifts in trade continues to grow, according to the results from our latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions.1Respondents to this quarter’s survey—which was in the field at the end of May through the first week in June—cite changes in trade policy or relationships as the top disruption to growth in the world economy, in their home economies, and even for their companies. Companies have already made changes as a result. Meanwhile, respondents’ long-standing focus on inflation is fading. Respondents continue to report less positivity about the state of today’s economy, though their views on near-term economic prospects are more upbeat now than in March.”, McKinsey & Co., June 30, 2025
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“The 40 Best Countries in the World, As Determined by the People – Switzerland is the best country in the world according to a global survey conducted in 2024. Respondents ranked it highly for business (#2), quality of life (#3), social purpose (#7), and cultural influence (#8) U.S. News designed its “Best Countries” ranking around 73 attributes grouped into 10 thematic subrankings, such as Quality of Life, Power, Entrepreneurship, etc. The attributes reflect public perceptions, not hard data. To gather this, the survey is distributed globally to about 17,000 respondents, including business leaders, informed elites, and general citizens. Each participant is shown a random subset of countries (that must meet GDP, tourism, and FDI thresholds) and asked to rate how strongly they associate those countries with each of the 73 attributes.”, USNews.com, July 5, 2025
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The Yuxi Circle: The World’s Most Densely Populated Area – If you wanted to capture over 55% of the global population inside a circle with a 4,000km radius, which city would you place at its epicenter? In 2013, a post appeared on Reddit marking a circular area of the globe with “more people living inside this circle than outside of it.” The circle had a radius of 4,000 km (just under 2,500 miles) and was named the Valeriepieris circle after author Ken Myers’ username. Acknowledging that the Valeriepieris circle is not actually a circle (it was drawn on a two-dimensional map rather than a globe) and is based on data that has become outdated, mapmaker Alasdair Rae went digging and discovered what he calls The Yuxi Circle, the world’s most densely populated area.”, Visual Capitalist, April 8, 2022. This was contributed by Mark Kasperowicz, Managing Partner, Digital Azimuth
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“The Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2025 – Now in its 13th edition, the World Economic Forum’s report on the leading innovations that stand to shape tech, health care, and industry covers a wide scope of technologies still in their nascent phase. GLP-1s for neurodegenerative diseases, for instance, have the possibility to meaningfully help patients with Alzheimers and Parkinson’s as GLP-1s have aided in weight loss therapies. Meanwhile, structural battery composites are able to store electricity in a car’s frame or a plane’s structure—in turn reducing their overall weight.”, World Economic Forum, July 3, 2025
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“Salesforce CEO Says 30% of Internal Work Is Being Handled by AI – Tech leaders, including those at Microsoft and Alphabet, are highlighting AI’s potential to replace human workers, with Salesforce saying its internal AI use has allowed it to hire fewer people. Salesforce is developing an AI product that can handle tasks like customer service without human supervision, which has reached 93% accuracy, including for large customers like Walt Disney Co. Executives at Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc. have said that AI is producing about 30% of new computer software code on some projects.”, Bloomberg, June 26, 2025
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“How the defence bonanza will reshape the global economy – As they spend big, politicians must resist using one pot of money to achieve many goals. or the first time in decades, the rich world is embarking on mass rearmament. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the threat of conflict over Taiwan and President Donald Trump’s impulsive approach to alliances have all made bolstering national defence an urgent priority. On June 25th members of nato agreed to raise their target for military spending to 3.5% of gdp and allocated an extra 1.5% to security-related items (Spain insisted on a loophole). If they achieve that target in 2035, they will be spending $800bn more every year, in real terms, than they did before Russia invaded Ukraine.”, The Economist, June 26, 2025
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“Donald Trump renews threat to hit trading partners with steep tariffs – White House extends deadline for ‘reciprocal’ levies from July 9 to August 1. Donald Trump has revived his threat to hit major trading partners with steep “reciprocal” tariffs even as he granted a three-week reprieve for countries to negotiate trade deals with the US. The president on Monday sent letters to Japan and South Korea, both among the US’s biggest trading counterparts, saying the country would impose 25 per cent levies beginning on August 1. South Africa would be hit with 30 per cent tariffs, Trump said, while also announcing big levies on several other countries.”, The Financial Times, July 7, 2025
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“The US Has More Copper Than China But No Way to Refine All of It – The industry will need to overcome high energy and labor costs, environmental regulations and a glut of cheap Chinese competition to make US copper smelting great again. The process has become almost prohibitively expensive in the US because of regulation, energy costs, labor and a glut of cheap Chinese competition. Freeport-McMoRan Inc.’s only US copper smelter—a hulking metal-processing facility at the edge of an old Arizona mining town—spits neon flames from its furnace like an industrial volcano. Freeport’s US operations cost about three times more than the company’s operations outside the country. Instead of processing copper in the US, many miners now turn abroad—where there’s more than enough capacity—to transform the raw materials they pull from the ground.”, Bloomberg, June 20, 2025
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“How trade tensions are really affecting the global economy – Companies are not yet rushing to relocate production to the US, but investment and dealmaking have already slowed. US tariff revenue surged almost fourfold from a year earlier to a record $24.2bn in May, while imports from China fell 43 per cent from the same month in 2024. But with policymaking so evidently at the caprice of Trump himself, it has become incredibly challenging for businesses to make long-term decisions about supply chains, according to Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics, a research company. ‘Relocating plants is an eight- to 10-year decision, but when you can’t predict what is happening next week, let alone next year or in five years, mitigation of the status quo is the likely strategy,’ he says. Now, as countries clamour to strike fresh deals with Trump before the July 9 deadline, deep unease still lingers through global boardrooms and supply chains. Many companies are resorting to holding strategies.”, The Financial Times, July 4, 2025
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“LNG Canada starts exports to Asia and explores pathways to expansion – A ship has left B.C. for Asia with the first load of liquefied natural gas from the new LNG Canada terminal, ushering a new era in energy exports at a time when Canada seeks to diversify markets away from the United States. The cost of building the first phase of the project has been pegged at $48.3-billion, including the $18-billion Kitimat terminal, the $14.5-billion Coastal GasLink pipeline and other infrastructure, as well as annual budgets for drilling in the North Montney region of northeastern B.C. Once the Kitimat terminal’s first phase is in full swing, there will be about 170 vessels a year transporting LNG to Asian markets.”, The Globe and Mail, June 30, 2025
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“Dollar Index Slumps 10.8% in Biggest First-Half Loss Since 1973 – The US Dollar Index has fallen about 10.8% year-to-date, compared with a 14.8% slump in the first half of 1973. Uncertainties associated with President Donald Trump’s trade and tariff policies – on top of his push for Federal Reserve rate cuts – have weighed heavily on the currency. The US dollar looks set for more pain after sliding to a new multi-year low, as dovish Federal Reserve pricing, softer economic data, and heightened policy uncertainty all weigh heavily on the greenback.”, Bloomberg, June 30, 2025
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Global & Regional Travel News
“America Has Pulled Off the Impossible. It Made Getting a Passport Simple – Washington isn’t known for tech innovation. How did a team of bureaucrats put their stamp on a process that hadn’t changed in 50 years? Now you can submit the application on your computer, upload a photo from your phone and pay with your credit card. No paper is necessary. To get a vital document that will accompany you around the world, you don’t even have to leave your kitchen table. The system has been open to the public for less than a year, but it’s already handling nearly half of all U.S. passport renewals, according to the State Department. And the really wild thing is that people are raving about it. In government surveys, online passport renewal gets positive reviews from 94% of respondents. That’s basically the approval rating of free pizza.”, The Wall Street Journal, July 4, 2025
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Book Review
In June 2024, Nvidia became the most valuable company in the world—a stunning milestone for a business that began in a California Denny’s three decades earlier. The Thinking Machine tells the inside story of how Nvidia transitioned from designing video game chips to powering the AI revolution—and in the process, redefined the future of computing.
At the center is CEO Jensen Huang, a Taiwanese-born entrepreneur who risked everything on AI long before it was proven. With rare access to Huang, his team, and investors, author Stephen Witt reveals how one leader’s conviction—and a team of brilliant, unconventional engineers—transformed Nvidia into a company that now supplies the supercomputers driving autonomous vehicles, generative content, robotics, and next-generation digital economies.
For global business leaders, this book offers a compelling look at the convergence of technology, geopolitics, and strategy. It highlights the importance of long-term vision, ecosystem thinking, and the ability to seize global opportunities in volatile environments.
As international companies prepare for the AI era, The Thinking Machine provides both inspiration and insight. This is not just the story of Nvidia—it’s the story of the next industrial revolution, unfolding now on a global scale.
This is the story of the company that is inventing the future.
5 Key Takeaways:
Global Vision Wins – Nvidia’s rise hinged on Huang’s ability to anticipate and act on worldwide tech demand, especially in the U.S.–China landscape.
Build the Ecosystem, Not Just the Product – CUDA made Nvidia indispensable globally. Think platforms, not just products.
Geopolitics = Strategy Now – Export bans, Taiwan chip supply, and AI policy show how geopolitics directly impact your business.
Cross-Cultural Grit Matters – Huang’s journey is a model of global resilience, conviction, and culturally aware leadership.
AI Is the New Infrastructure – No matter your sector, understanding how chips power AI is key to future-proofing your business.
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Country & Regional Updates
Canada
“Canada’s trade deficit narrows in May, exports to U.S. decrease for fourth straight month – Statistics Canada reported on Thursday that the country’s trade deficit, which reflects the difference between its exports and imports, fell to $5.9-billion. Exports to the United States in May slipped by 0.9 per cent, following a whopping 16-per-cent decline in April. It was the fourth consecutive monthly decline as the White House targets some sectors of the Canadian economy with punishing tariffs. This includes levies on steel, aluminum and automobiles, as well as on all goods that don’t comply with the continental free-trade agreement’s rules of origin. Last month, Mr. Trump doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50 per cent.”, The Globe and Mail, July 3, 2025
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China
“China’s first Legoland opens to tourists in Shanghai – Thousands of local tourists poured into China’s first-ever Legoland as it opened its gates in Shanghai on Saturday, the latest theme park hoping to capitalise on a domestic tourism boom. The Chinese branch of the British-owned theme park franchise is the biggest Legoland in the world. Despite the Chinese economy’s sluggish growth in recent years, domestic tourist spending grew 18.6 percent in the first quarter of this year compared to the previous year, according to statistics. Eager Lego fans rushed into the park as soon as it opened, wearing themed shirts and waving branded flags as they enjoyed the 318,000-square-metre (78.5-acre) compound in scorching temperatures.”, AFP, July 5, 2025
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“China snaps up mines around the world in rush to secure resources – Dealmaking hits highest level since 2013 as groups seek raw materials that underpin global economy. Chinese mining acquisitions overseas have hit their highest level in more than a decade as companies race to secure the raw materials that underpin the global economy in the face of mounting geopolitical tension. There were 10 deals worth more than $100mn last year, the highest since 2013 according to an analysis of S&P and Mergermarket data. Separate research by the Griffith Asia Institute found that last year was the most active for Chinese overseas mining investment and construction since at least 2013. The country’s huge demand for raw materials — it is the world’s largest consumer of most minerals — means its mining companies have a long history of investing overseas. Analysts and investors say that the rise in dealmaking partly reflects China’s efforts to get ahead of the deteriorating geopolitical climate, which is making it increasingly unwelcome as an investor in key countries such as Canada and the US.”, The Financial Times, July 5, 2025
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European Union
“Cautiously Optimistic EU Economic Data – In the first quarter, the eurozone doubled its growth rate from the previous quarter. In the first quarter of 2025, the eurozone recorded 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter GDP growth, doubling the 0.3 percent rate seen in the fourth quarter of 2024. Year-over-year, GDP rose by 1.5 percent, up from 1.2 percent in the previous quarter. Household consumption contributed 0.1 percentage points to overall EU growth, while government consumption held steady. Employment in the eurozone rose by 0.2 percent from the previous quarter, supporting the modest expansion.”, Geopolitical Futures, July 4, 2025
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Latin America
“Latin American VC Activity Slows to Near Pre-Pandemic Lows – Venture capital dealmaking in Latin America has hit the slowest pace in almost seven years, in part due to global economic uncertainty and a pullback from US investors in the region. In the first half of the year, there were 335 transactions totaling $2.9 billion in Latin America, according to PitchBook data released Thursday. If the current pace holds, it could reach levels as low as those in 2016, before a rise in VC activity when the region was experiencing strong economic growth that drew US investors looking for high yields in new markets, Pitchbook analyst Kyle Stanford said in an interview. There were 384 deals in all of 2016, the data shows.”, Bloomberg, July 3, 2025
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Middle East
“Oman vs Qatar: The Gulf’s Quiet Giants with Very Different Etiquette – When Western professionals think about doing business in the Gulf, the spotlight usually shines on the giants: Saudi Arabia and the UAE. These are the high-profile players with ambitious visions, mega-projects, and headline-grabbing reforms. But just offstage, two quieter nations are commanding serious influence in their own, more understated ways: Oman and Qatar. And while both may seem “easier” at first glance — thanks to their soft-spoken reputations — they could not be more different in how they approach business, relationships, and etiquette.”, Middle east Sunday Pages, July 6, 2025. Written by Corina Goetz, Middle East & Saudi Etiquette & Business Specialist
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Singapore
“The little country building the world’s biggest mega-port – and it’s going to cost £10bn – A tiny Asian country will soon be home to the largest port in the world as a £10 billion project gets underway. A 16-mile-long port will become the largest in the world when it is completed in this small Asian country. One of the most ambitious infrastructure projects in the world at the moment. The Tuas Mega Port in Singapore will cost around £10 billion once it opens. The project is already underway and is expected to be completed by the 2040s. The project promises to be a greener and smarter port compared to others around the world. The world’s largest port is currently located in Shanghai, China, but will be outranked once the Tuas Meg Port in Singapore opens fully.”, Express UK, July 6, 2025
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United States
“CEO confidence registers sharpest fall-off in a half-century, new survey finds – Biggest decline since the survey — conducted by the Conference Board in collaboration with the Business Council — started in 1976. Given the commencement of trade hostilities and the huge amount of uncertainty in foreign and economic policy that have characterized the past few months, the lack of top-executive conviction should come as no surprise. Just as damagingly, expectations for the future also deteriorated sharply, with more than half of respondents foreseeing worsening conditions over the rest of the year.”, Market Watch, May 29, 2025
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Vietnam
“Vietnam’s new US trade deal sparks optimism despite tariff challenges – Under the new deal, US goods into Vietnam will not be taxed while Vietnamese exports will face a 20 per cent US tariff. The Vietnam Stock Index reached its highest level since April 2022, indicating confidence that export stability had been achieved. On the face of it, the deal is highly unbalanced, with US exports to Vietnam enjoying tariff-free market access, while Vietnamese exports in the other direction now face a 20 per cent rate, slightly over twice last year’s average rate of 9.4 per cent. Furthermore, the new rate is vastly lower than the 46 per cent that Trump unveiled in April against Vietnamese goods.”, South China Morning Post, July 6, 2025.
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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification
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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News
“Unlocking M&A Success in the Franchise Industry – Being prepared is the true competitive advantage. After a quieter period, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the franchise and restaurant industries are showing renewed momentum. Though deal volumes have not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, strategic buyers, private equity firms, and multi-unit operators are reengaging the market with a pragmatic mindset. Today’s franchise M&A environment demands more than capital—it requires detailed planning, robust diligence, cultural alignment, and strategic discipline. ranchise transactions are inherently complex. Buyers must evaluate more than just financial performance—they need to understand franchise agreements, unit-level economics, development obligations, and the strength of franchisor-franchisee relationships.”, QSR Magazine, June 27, 2025
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“KFC, Pizza Hut operator Yum China embraces AI to boost efficiency, profitability – Digital ordering accounted for about 90 per cent of Yum China’s sales in 2024, backed by its 540 million ‘membership’ consumers. The firm, which introduced its Q-Smart AI-powered assistant in June, was expected to help reduce waste, improve quality and save labour costs, chief technology officer (CTO) Leila Zhang said in an interview. The AI-powered system could help with staff scheduling, inventory replenishment and meal preparation, she added. ‘When we think about AI and robotics, one of our primary considerations is to empower our restaurant managers,’ she said. ‘We develop systems and AI-powered digital tools to allow them to work more efficiently, freeing up more of their time so they can focus on delivering exceptional customer service.’”, South China Morning Post, July 6, 2025
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“The Fast Food Giant Behind Burger King Also Owns 3 Other Iconic Chains – Restaurant Brands International came about from the unique merger of Burger King and Tim Hortons in 2014. The two companies were brought together by an outside owner named 3G Capital, based in Brazil, and the deal was partially funded by famous investor Warren Buffett. Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes, and Firehouse Subs are all owned by Restaurant Brands International. While all four of these chains are owned by this single conglomerate based in Toronto, Restaurant Brands International does still operate them as independent businesses in each’s home country.”, The Tasting Table, June 18, 2025
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“The Star Ingredient McDonald’s Leaves Off The Menu In India – With tens of thousands of McDonald’s locations worldwide in over 100 countries, exploring the overseas offerings at the ubiquitous burger chain can be an amazing view into local cultures. Many of these products combine classic McDonald’s items with local flavors, like a bacon McMuffin that uses halloumi cheese in Cyprus, or a burger with bulgogi sauce in Korea. Some are entirely unique to different nations, like McD’s version of the porridge dish bubur ayam in Indonesia and Malaysia. But one of the things that stands out about McDonald’s international menu items in India is that you can’t get a hamburger at all. That’s right. Beef patties are nowhere to be found in any Indian McDonald’s. This stems from the country’s dietary culture.”, The Tasting Table, June 25, 2025
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
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William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ companies global.
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For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
