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Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 116, Tuesday, September, 2024

Posted on Sep 2nd, 2024 in Asia Pacific, Europe, India, Miscellaneous, Predictions and Trends, Professional Development, World Culture, World Economy | Comments Off

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Commentary about the 116^th Issue: When Will the Global Population Start to Shrink? The average price for fish and chips in the UK rose more than 50 in the five years to July. Global beer consumption is up almost 3% over 2021. Burger King® loses trademark in India. Brazil and Vietnam produce 56% of the world’s coffee. The poisonous global politics of water! Canada becomes the latest country to put huge tariffs on Chinese EVs. Foreigners are pouring US$ billions into Indonesia’s assets. Circle K® bids US$39 billion for 7-11®. Singapore Air to merge with Air India….really!!! Eurozone countries see lower inflation but very low growth. Planning for natural gas in the transition to renewables. And the world’s ports will need US$2 trillion for the renewables conversion.

Editor’s Note: You will see small ads in each edition for carefully vetted companies that serve international businesses. Please click on the ads or use the QR code to see what each of our carefully chosen advertisers can do to make doing global business easier.

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Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with any questions, comments and we welcome contributions.

Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com

https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/

+1 949 375 1896

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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“Curiosity is not a trait, it is a superpower.”, Neil Sahota

“All humans are entrepreneurs, not because they should start companies but because the will to create is encoded in human DNA.”, Reid Hoffman

“In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity.”, Albert Einstein

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Highlights in issue #116:

When Will the Global Population Start to Shrink?

A $2 Trillion Reckoning Looms as Ports Become Pawns in Geopolitics

Germany ‘Falling Into Crisis’ as Berlin Suffers Vision Deficit

Global Money Piles Into Indonesia as Fed Easing Cycle Approaches

Burger King loses 13-year legal battle against Indian restaurant

Fish and chips price rise tops UK takeaways

Brand Global News Section: 7-11®, Burger King®, Circle K®, Guzman Y Guzman®, Luckin Coffee®, Mixue®, Potbelly®, Red Lobster® and TeaPanda®

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B2B Payments Platform For Global Businesses

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, July 2024 – Despite current geopolitical tensions, the global economy remains resilient. Economic growth in surveyed economies is accelerating, as growth in both the manufacturing and services sectors picked up in June. Manufacturing growth was largely stable (except in the eurozone, where it contracted faster) while services sectors remained bright, albeit expanding at a slower pace. Growth in the second quarter was varied but remained positive across the globe.”, McKinsey & Co., August 23, 2024

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“When Will the Global Population Start to Shrink? – Everyone alive today has only ever lived in a world with a growing population. And for the opposite to be true, the number of people being born would have to be outpaced by the number of people dying. As it happens, that particular inflection point is not too far off according to latest estimates. Figures were sourced from the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024. Global Births and Deaths (1950–2100). In 2023, 132 million babies were born and nearly 62 million people died. Resulting in a population growth of 70 million people (+0.9%). But as birth rates fall around the world, the number of deaths occurring each year is expected to surpass the number of births by 2084. This could potentially kick off an era of global population decline.”, Visual Capitalist & UN, August 13, 2024

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“Which Countries Drink the Most Beer? – The global beer industry is massive, contributing more than half a trillion to global GDP. From barley and hops exporters like France and Argentina to major manufacturers such as Brazil and China, the beer industry is globally interconnected while remaining highly localized. In fact, 89% of supplies used in the beer sector are produced in the domestic market where beer is sold. This graphic shows which countries drink the most beer, based on data from Kirin Holdings. As the above table shows, China, the U.S., and Brazil—the three largest consumers of beer—account for more than 40% of global beer consumption. China takes top spot, a position it has held for the last 20 consecutive years.”, Visual Capitalist and Kirin Holdings, August 30, 2024

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“The poisonous global politics of water – Polarisation makes it harder to adapt to climate change. The world’s water troubles can be summed up in six words: “Too little, too much, too dirty”, says Charlie Iceland of the World Resources Institute (wri), a think-tank. Climate change will only aggravate the problem. Already, roughly half of humanity lives under “highly water-stressed conditions” for at least one month a year. Adapting will require not only new technology but also a new politics. Villages, regions and countries will need to collaborate to share scarce water and build flood defences. The needs of farmers, who use 70% of the world’s freshwater, must be balanced with those of the urbanites they feed, as well as industry. In short, a politics of trust, give-and-take and long-term planning is needed. Yet the spread of “them-and-us” demagoguery makes this harder.”, The Economist, August 26, 2024

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues

“Gas industry group says energy demand not reflected in climate planning – International Gas Union claims ‘significant gap’ in scenarios to achieve net zero emissions by 2030. The Swiss-based International Gas Union said there was a “significant gap” between what was forecast for demand based on historical consumption patterns and the pathways shown by institutions such as the International Energy Agency to achieve the cuts in emissions behind climate change. The IGU report showed that between 2021 and 2024, global energy demand had risen 2.7 per cent annually. At that pace, the world would consume 586 exajoules (EJ) of energy in 2030, according to the IGU. This would be led by ‘new sources of power demand’ such as the adoption of energy-intensive AI, as well as the increased need for cooling, especially in developing countries, brought about by more extreme temperatures, the group said.”, The Financial Times, August 27, 2024

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“A $2 Trillion Reckoning Looms as Ports Become Pawns in Geopolitics – The gateways to global trade face costly conversions to retool in new era of rivalry, automation and green energy. For centuries, control of the world’s biggest shipping centers helped expand empires, spark and settle wars, ease poverty and build middle classes while giving international companies access to cheap workers and cash-flush consumers in distant markets. Now, both old and new gateways for seaborne commerce⁠— responsible for handling 80% of the world’s $25 trillion in annual merchandise trade⁠—are economic fortresses in the great-power struggles of a multipolar world. Meantime, they’re having to undergo costly and painstaking conversions to digital technologies, automation and green energy with a price tag estimated at €200 billion ($216 billion) a year in new investment, for a total of €2 trillion over the next decade.”, Bloomberg, August 20, 2024

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“Inflation Eases in US and Europe & World Borrowing Cost Change in 2024 – Inflation cooled in the US and Europe, setting the stage for policymakers in both regions to lower interest rates in September. On a three-month annualized basis, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying US inflation advanced 1.7% in July, the slowest this year. In Europe, consumer prices rose 2.2% in August from a year ago — the tamest since mid-2021 and significantly lower than the 2.6% pace a month earlier. Meantime, inflation in Tokyo — a leading indicator of the national data due in September — picked up speed in August. Hungary kept the key interest rate unchanged for the first time in more than a year, while Guatemala and Kazakhstan also held. Israel’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 4.5%, and said it’s likely to refrain from cuts for the rest of the year as the war in Gaza continues. Dominican Republic cut.”, Bloomberg, August 31, 2024

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“There’s a China-Shaped Hole in the Global Economy – China’s low-consuming, high-investing economy guarantees conflict with other countries. China’s economy is unusual. Whereas consumers contribute 50% to 75% of gross domestic product in other major economies, in China they account for 40%. Investment, such as in property, infrastructure and factories, and exports provide most of the rest. Lately, that low consumption has become a headwind to China’s growth because property investment, once a major component of demand, has collapsed. This isn’t just a problem for China; it’s a problem for the whole world. What Chinese companies can’t sell to Chinese consumers, they export.”, The Wall Street Journal, August 29, 2024

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“Climate Change Means Coffee’s Future May Depend on Niche Growers – Some 40 countries grow coffee, but more than half of global production has long come from just two: Brazil and Vietnam. So when bad weather hits both — an increasing risk in a destabilized climate — supplies get threatened and prices soar. Take this year’s $9 lattes, as drought gripped both nations. A similar vulnerability has also played out in chocolate this year as cocoa prices spiked to a record because of bad weather and disease in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which make up the majority of global supplies. Coffee importers and roasters realize this urgency and the need to climate-proof supplies.”, Bloomberg, August 30, 2024

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Global & Regional Travel & Living

“Heathrow’s third runway asks questions of the airport and Labour – A decades long saga is not over yet. Heathrow has operated at close to maximum capacity for more than a decade. The question facing Thomas Woldbye, Heathrow’s chief executive, and its new backers—Ardian, a French private-equity firm, and the Saudi Public Investment Fund (pif), which have agreed to acquire stakes of 22.6% and 15% respectively—is how to increase the number of passengers it can manage. Heathrow…is focused on simpler fixes for now. The airport says that a new baggage system in Terminal 2 and improvements to security lanes, for instance, would increase capacity. But improvements of this sort will get Heathrow only so far. If it is to handle many more people, it needs another runway.”, The Economist, August 29, 2024

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“Former Expedia exec’s startup uses AI to help smaller companies book travel – Small businesses and startups often lack a dedicated travel desk, forcing executives and founders to rely on human assistants or consuming and cumbersome travel apps. Expedia’s former SVP of consumer product, Michael Gulmann, is betting on AI to bridge the gap. His company, Otto, emerges from stealth Thursday, with plans to launch an alpha version of the platform to select U.S. participants in September. The service is designed to quickly facilitate flight and hotel bookings through natural language queries. Gulmann told TechCrunch that while the likes of TravelPerk and Concur focus on large enterprises, Otto is looking to serve customers who lack access to the services. ‘Think of Otto as a high-end travel agent or executive assistant that remembers your preferences, such as your choice of hotels and flights. It will also remember other nuances such as if you prefer to stay within 10 minutes of your meeting place,’ Gulmann said.”, Tech Crunch, August 22, 2024

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“Hilton to maintain breakneck China expansion pace, targets 100 new hotels per year – Global hotel chain operator Hilton is bullish over the growth potential of mainland China’s leisure travel market and plans to maintain its fast-paced expansion in the country, with a focus on niche brands. The company, which owns brands like Conrad and Waldorf Astoria, aims to add at least 100 new hotels in China annually over the next few years to cater to increasing travel demand, Qian Jin, president of Hilton Greater China and Mongolia, said in an interview. ‘Niche brands are in high demand to offer personalised services to tourists,’ he said. ‘We have to fine-tune those brands as we move to some specific destinations to capture the growth opportunities.’”, South China Morning Post, 26 August 2024. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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“Deal to create one of world’s largest airline groups gets regulator approval – Indian government approves Singapore Airlines’ FDI for Vistara-Air India merger. Vistara, a full-service carrier jointly owned by India’s Tata Group and Singapore Airlines, will be absorbed into Air India as part of the deal and cease operating its own flights from 12 November. Air India is also owned by the Tata Group.”, The Independent, August 31, 2024

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Book Review

“Atomic Habits: An Easy & Proven Way to Build Good Habits & Break Bad Ones” by James Clear is a practical guide that explores how small, incremental changes, known as “atomic habits,” can lead to significant personal transformation. The book emphasizes the power of consistent actions, suggesting that these tiny behaviors, when compounded, create remarkable results over time. Clear introduces a framework for behavior change based on four principles: make habits obvious, attractive, easy, and satisfying.

He highlights the importance of identity in habit formation, arguing that lasting change comes from adopting an identity aligned with the habits we want to cultivate. The book also discusses the habit loop (cue, craving, response, reward) and the role of environment in shaping behavior. Clear introduces concepts like habit stacking and the Goldilocks Rule, which help make new habits stick and maintain motivation. Overall, “Atomic Habits” offers actionable strategies for mastering small behaviors that lead to long-term success. The book introduces the habit loop, consisting of cue, craving, response, and reward, which is essential for understanding and modifying behavior. Additionally, Clear highlights the role of environment in shaping our habits, advocating for the design of surroundings that support positive behaviors and minimize negative triggers.

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Country & Regional Updates

Australia

“Retail Food Group brews $14.7m turnaround, plans rebrand to ‘Savora’ – Gold Coast-headquartered Retail Food Group (ASX: RFG) is moving on from its patchy past with a new name after returning to profitability in FY24, lifting its bottom line from a loss of $8.9 million to a net profit after tax of $5.8 million. The profit result is RFG’s highest in seven years, of which four were loss-making and included major setbacks from litigation, franchise closures, reputational damage from public franchisee complaints, and a COVID share price slump from which the group has never recovered.”, Business News Australia, August 20, 2024

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Canada

“Ottawa to impose 100-per-cent tariff on Chinese-made EVs – On Monday, the federal government announced a 100-per-cent tariff on Chinese-made EVs, as well as a 25-per-cent tariff on steel and aluminum products from China – both of which will come into effect in early October. The EV tariff applies to some hybrid passenger cars, trucks, buses and delivery vans, and is in addition to a pre-existing import tariff of 6.1 per cent that already applies to Chinese-made EVs coming into Canada.”, The Globe and Mail, August 26, 2024

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China

“China’s milk consumption is climbing, leading U.S. farmers to expand exports – China is only the third largest importer of American dairy, after Mexico and Canada, spending $607 million last year. But, considering the changing cultural attitudes towards dairy, it also represents one of the largest growth opportunities. According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, China consumes about 15% of what Americans consume per capita. If that gap closes China would add more than $600 billion to the global dairy market. Even amid rising geopolitical tensions, the U.S. and other countries are fighting for a slice of that…cheese. China’s minister of international trade, Wang Shouwen last month invited American dairy firms to set up shop in China and the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced a $1.2 billion investment in dairy exports.”, Fortune, August 14, 2024

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“Top private equity firms put brakes on China dealmaking – Activity dries up amid Beijing’s listings crackdown and planned US investment curbs. Dealmaking in the world’s second-largest economy has slowed significantly, with just five new investments — mostly small — by the 10 largest global buyout firms this year. The figures underscore how quickly overseas investors’ enthusiasm for China, once a hot market, has waned in recent years. The same 10 firms collectively made 30 investments in the country as recently as 2021 and similar numbers in earlier years, but the numbers have fallen every year since then. This year, seven of the 10 have made no new investments at all, the figures from Dealogic show. ‘China has been a roller coaster for investors, with geopolitical tensions, regulatory unpredictability and economic headwinds,’ said Kher Sheng Lee, Asia-Pacific co-head for the Alternative Investment Management Association.”, The Financial Times, August 24, 2024

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Australia

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Canada

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China

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Europe/Eurozone

“What makes Europe so liveable? Every year the Economist Intelligence Unit (eiu), our sister company, ranks a big group of global cities on their liveability. This year’s rankings have seen quite a bit of movement. But the top of the index remains dominated by the continent that best combines stability with a high quality of culture and the environment, education, infrastructure and health care, all of which the index’s authors aim to measure objectively. When the scores are done, Europe can take another bow.”, The Economist, August 29, 2024

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“Eurozone inflation falls to 2.2% in August – Markets expect further ECB rate cuts following dip in price pressures. Eurozone inflation fell sharply to a three-year low of 2.2 per cent in August, bolstering expectations that the European Central Bank will reduce interest rates next month. Friday’s preliminary figure was in line with a forecast of 2.2 per cent in a Reuters poll and below last month’s rate of 2.6 per cent. ‘The inflation environment is slowly getting more benign,’ said Bert Colijn, Eurozone economist at ING, referring to the progress in bringing the headline rate of inflation close to the ECB’s 2 per cent target. The data from Eurostat came after Germany and Spain reported sharper than expected reductions in August in figures this week.”, The Financial Times, August 30, 2024

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Germany

“”Germany ‘Falling Into Crisis’ as Berlin Suffers Vision Deficit – European Central Bank chiefs were vilified in Germany for much of the past decade or so……the country has suffered over the past two decades from the effects of a broad lack of vision on the part of its governments. Now, a near-ideological support for balanced federal budgets has left the economy with no one at the helm to lay out a course for growth. The appetite for setting up a new business in Germany just hit a record low, according to a survey released last week. And, back to the economic stats: Germany’s real GDP last quarter was just 0.4% bigger than five years before.”, Bloomberg, August 28, 2024

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India

“Burger King loses 13-year legal battle against Indian restaurant – Pune court rules Indian restaurant had been using name for over a decade before American chain started doing business in country. An Indian court dismissed a suit filed by Burger King Corporation alleging trademark infringement by Burger King in Pune city, in the western state of Maharashtra, noting that the restaurant had been in operation since 1992, years before the multinational company started doing business in the country. Burger King Corporation was founded in 1953 as Insta-Burger King and rechristened Burger King in 1959. It entered the Indian market in November 2014, opening its first outlet in the capital Delhi, and arrived in Pune the next year.”, The Independent, August 20, 2024

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“India Port Workers Reach Pay Deal Averting Strike – The latest showdown between dockworkers in a major trading nation and their port employers appears to be ending without any significant disruptions. Port employees’ unions in India agreed to a new five-year wage dealwith government officials, averting a planned nationwide strike scheduled to start Wednesday, Bloomberg’s Rajesh Kumar Singhand Weilun Soon report today. The new deal halts a walkout that could have involved nearly 20,000 workers and brought widespread disruption to cargo operations at some of the nation’s busiest ports. Unions at India’s 12 major state-run ports have been negotiating with the government since 2021 to try to increase pay.”, Bloomberg, August 28, 2024

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Indonesia

“Global Money Piles Into Indonesia as Fed Easing Cycle Approaches – Foreigners pour billions of dollars into its assets in August. Indonesia offers fiscal discipline, valuations with rate cuts. lobal money has flooded into Indonesia’s financial markets this month, signaling the country’s assets have quickly become a preferred investment destination as the US Federal Reserve’s easing cycle nears. Overseas investors have bought $933.8 million of the nation’s stocks in August, on course for the biggest monthly purchases since April 2022, while net inflows of $2.5 billion into bonds is the most in more than a year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The influx of money saw the rupiah briefly erase this year’s losses against the dollar, with a gain this month surpassed in Asia only by Malaysia’s ringgit.”, Bloomberg, August 26, 2024

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United Arab Emirates

“Guggenheim Rises in the Desert as Abu Dhabi Morphs Into Expat Hub – The emirate is attempting to draw wealthy foreigners to invest and work. All around, there are growing signs of a massive construction boom that’s changing the face of this once sleepy, oil-rich emirate, which holds about 6% of the world’s crude reserves under its sands and controls $1.5 trillion in sovereign wealth. Sprawling theme parks, five-star hotels, luxury homes, sports complexes and high-end office towers are rising at breakneck speed as the city’s rulers spend billions to diversify the economy and cater to global financial giants……who’ve set up here. The Guggenheim is part of a more than $10 billion push to boost tourism and cultural activity in the emirate, the capital of the United Arab Emirates. Meantime, Abu Dhabi is also pouring billions more into building sprawling residential developments to attract rich expatriates to live and work here. Wealthy buyers from the UK, India, Spain and beyond are snapping up seaside villas costing millions.”, Bloomberg, August 25, 2024

Editor’s Note: I first traveled to the UAE in 1994. There was one western chain hotel on Sheikh Zayed Road in Dubai, the Crown Plaza. Abu Dhabi was the very conservative capital of the Emirates that was 87 miles and a world away from even then flashy Dubai.

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United Kingdom

“Fish and chips price rise tops UK takeaways – Fish and chips is a British family favourite equally enjoyed around the table on a Friday night or out of the paper on an often overcast beach. But the deep fried delicacy has seen the biggest price increase of some of the UK’s most popular takeaways, according to new figures. The average price for a portion of fish and chips rose more than 50% to nearly £10 in the five years to July – while the cost of a kebab went up 44% and pizza 30%. Chip shop owners cite a “perfect storm” of costs in recent years, including soaring energy bills, tariffs on seafood imports and extreme weather hammering potato harvests.”, BBC, August 25, 2024

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United States

“Meet America’s Top Restaurant Groups – The 125 biggest multi-concept groups that are making their mark on communities across the country. With help from our partners at Technomic, we’ve identified 125 of the biggest restaurant groups in the country, breaking down the list by the four U.S. regions as identified by the Census Bureau: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West. Meet them below, and revisit the list throughout the year as we endeavor to profile all 125.”, Nation’s Restaurant News, August 28, 2024

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Bill Edwards and Keith Gerson Announce the Formation of The Franchise Consortium

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Brand & Franchising News

“Potbelly – From Corporate Owned Restaurant Model To A Franchise Model – Potbelly Sandwich Shops has taken significant steps to transition from a corporate store model to a robust franchise system. Lynette McKee, CFE and Senior Vice President of Franchising at Potbelly is leading this transformation. To reach 2,000 franchised units and achieve an 85% franchise system, Potbelly is focused on maintaining its core values while expanding its presence nationwide……the transition requires more than scaling operations—it demands a careful review of existing practices, clear communication, and a commitment to staying true to the brand’s mission. At the heart of Potbelly’s strategy is a comprehensive franchise training program designed to ensure that new franchisees understand the unique elements that set Potbelly apart from competitors. This focus on training and brand consistency is crucial for maintaining the welcoming vibe that has made the brand successful.”, Forbes, August 23, 2024

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“Embracing AI: How Franchise Service Brands Are Revolutionizing Business Operations – The franchising and home service industries are constantly evolving, with technological advancements like artificial intelligence (AI) playing a significant role in shaping how these businesses operate. As consumer expectations shift toward more efficient and personalized services, many home service franchises are turning to AI. The demand for AI systems is expected to grow by 21% annually until 2030, further reflecting this trend. AI is also setting new standards in customer service by improving how businesses interact with and serve their customers. By managing appointments, AI can provide real-time updates, offering clients a more streamlined and efficient service experience while keeping franchise owners a step ahead of the competition. Beyond enhancing customer experiences, AI is also revolutionizing data management. While AI is beneficial for new customers, it can also double-check and organize existing data.“, Franchising.com, August 24, 2024

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“Guzman Y Guzman’s revenue soars 32 per cent – Guzman Y Guzman (Australia) delivered revenue of $342.2 million in the last fiscal year, up 32.1 per cent, thanks to opening new restaurants. However, the fast-food operator’s statutory net loss widened to $13.7 million. This is the first time the Mexican fast food chain published financial results since its initial public offering on June 20. During the fiscal year, the company saw network sales of $959.7 million, an increase of 26.4 per cent. Australian network sales grew 27.3 per cent to $894.6 million, while Singapore network sales rose 7.5 per cent to $46.4 million. Japan network sales climbed 12.3 per cent to $7.9 million and US network sales surged 81.8 per cent to $10.8 million.”, Inside Retail AU, August 27, 2024

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“Circle K Owner Makes a Move Toward Acquiring 7-Eleven for a Staggering Sum – If successful, the 7-Eleven acquisition would be the largest-ever foreign buyout of a Japanese company. Canada’s Alimentation Couche-Tard has reportedly approached Japan’s Seven & i Holdings, the owner of 7-Eleven, about a potential takeover valued at around $38 billion. 7-Eleven is the world’s largest convenience store chain, with more than 13,000 locations in North America and over 83,000 worldwide. If successful, the acquisition would be the largest-ever foreign buyout of a Japanese company.”, Entrepreneur magazine, August 21, 2024

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“Red Lobster’s new owner names former P.F. Chang’s CEO to lead chain – Damola Adamolekun will take the reins of the struggling seafood giant after a sale to Fortress Investment Group is finalized. His tenure at Chang’s made him a rising star in the industry.

Adamolekun has a background in investment banking and was a partner at Paulson & Co. when it took a stake in P.F. Chang’s in 2019. He was then tapped to lead the Asian casual-dining chain as CEO. He helped guide Chang’s through the pandemic and led a refresh of its restaurants, menu and technology.”, Restaurant Business, August 26, 2024

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“Luckin Coffee planning massive overseas expansion – Latepost, a unit of Caijing Magazine, reported that Luckin is planning to expand overseas with focus on Southeast Asia and the United States. The company was not available for comment. Luckin runs over 20,000 stores in China, with its operations covering both online and offline channels.

There are 38 directly run Luckin stores in Singapore, with the first one having opened in April 2023.Unlike in China, Luckin does not prioritize its low-price approach in Singapore. In the first half of this year, Luckin started discussions with BJ Food, the franchiser of Starbucks in Malaysia, to form a joint venture for entry into the Malaysian market. In June, Luckin announced plans to buy about 120,000 metric tons of coffee beans from Brazil from 2024 to 2025.”, China Daily, August 20, 2024. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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“Pressure Builds on Trailblazing Chinese Bubble Tea Brand Mixue – With over 36,000 stores in China and the rest of the world, Mixue Bingcheng Co. Ltd. dominates the market by offering milk tea with tapioca, ice cream, and juice at budget-friendly prices of 2 to 10 yuan (14 U.S. cents to $1.40), far less than competitors like HeyTea and Nayuki which charge double or triple that. On the Chinese mainland, many of its stores are located in smaller cities and suburban areas, offering sugar hits to price-sensitive consumers. But now, local brands are returning fire, and analysts say the lack of product differentiation that facilitated rapid growth could become a weakness. It could also be why firms like Mixue are struggling to mount a successful listing. China’s largest milk tea franchise was an early mover in mounting its global expansion two years before the Covid pandemic hit. But the company’s recently lapsed Hong Kong IPO has cast a shadow over the industry’s prospects.”, Caixin Global, August 23, 2024

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“TeaPanda opens its first European store in Barcelona and uses the TeaPanda trademark – Chabaidao, which continues to increase the number of stores in South Korea, Thailand and Australia, has extended its overseas reach to Europe and chose Barcelona, Spain as the site for its first European store. Recently, a social media account named “Tea 100 Spain” was launched, announcing that the first store in Spain has officially landed near the Arc de Triomphe in Barcelona. Many local users also posted photos of the current enclosure of the store, revealing that it is currently under renovation. However, some users have doubts about the authenticity of the Spanish store’s English name being “TeaPanda” instead of “Chapanda.”, Caijing.com.cn, August 21, 2024. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!

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William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.

To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com
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And download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business, used by many companies for strategic planning, at this link:

Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking

For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896

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Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 115, Tuesday, August 20, 2024

Posted on Aug 19th, 2024 in Asia Pacific, Europe, India, Miscellaneous, Predictions and Trends, Professional Development, World Culture, World Economy | Comments Off

Commentary about the 115^th Issue: Big tech is beginning to use more electricity than whole countries. How the world’s stock markets and the Magnificent 7 have changed in value over time. generative AI (gen AI) is here to stay, and its business potential is massive. Unexpectedly rapid declines in fertility suggest the population will peak this century. Country GDPs are growing…overall. China is now the world leader in coffee shops….really!!! US Retail Sales Chugging Along. Indonesian fishermen use AI to increase their catches. Starbucks replaces it CEO with a work from home CEO 1,000 miles away. ure hold for India? And Texas’ own Dickey’s Barbecue Pit is ‘hot’ in Lahore, Pakistan.

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Editor’s Note: This is the 115^th edition of our biweekly global business update newsletter that started in March 2020. Each edition takes 20-23 hours to create and publish. And we subscribe to ~30 paid information sources to bring this truly diverse, non-partisan global business trends newsletter to 4,600 subscribers around the world. Recently we considered making this a paid subscriber or ad supported newsletter to help recover some of the costs to bring you the latest global trends that can impact your business and even your lives. We chose to make this newsletter ad supported. You will see small ads in each edition for organizations that serve international businesses. We ask that our subscribers click on the ads or use the QR code to see what each of our carefully chosen advertisers can do to make doing global business easier.

Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“To succeed, work hard. Never give up and above all cherish a magnificent obsession.”, Walt Disney

“The best way to persuade people is with your ears.”, Dean Rusk, U.S. Secretary of State, 1961-1969

“Not everything that is faced can be changed, but nothing can be changed until it is faced.”, James Baldwin. Compliments of Linda DiMario

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Highlights in issue #115:

GDP Growth Projections for Key Economies (2024-2025)
Big Tech Uses More Electricity Than Entire Countries
What does the future hold for India?
The Surging Value of the Magnificent Seven (2000-2024)
The Fight Against Global Hunger – Is food insecurity a political issue, or an existential one?
The World’s Largest Stock Markets (1900 vs. 2023)
Brand Global News Section: Dickey’s Barbeque®, Popeyes®, Starbucks® anmd Tropical Smoothie®

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B2B Payments Platform For Global Businesses

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“GDP Growth Projections for Key Economies (2024-2025) – In this graphic, we summarize the latest GDP growth projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which are as of July 2024. The U.S. has been one of the strongest advanced economies since the COVID-19 pandemic, though the IMF believes growth will taper off in 2025. This will be due to slower job growth and tighter fiscal policy (less government spending and/or higher taxes). In Europe, the IMF believes GDP growth will bottom out in 2024, and pick up in 2025. Germany in particular has struggled due to weakness in the manufacturing sector.” Visual Capitalist and the IMF, August 14, 2024

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“The Fight Against Global Hunger – Is food insecurity a political issue, or an existential one? Last year, approximately 30 percent of the world’s population experienced moderate to severe food insecurity. This means some 2.3 billion people “compromised on the quality and quantity of their food” or simply could not eat for a day or more, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization. An additional 500 million people – that’s roughly 50 percent more than the population of the United States – could not afford nutritious food. Yet only a quarter of global development assistance is used to fund the fight against hunger. This raises the question of whether food insecurity is a social, economic and political problem or an existential one.”, Geopolitical Futures, August 7, 2024

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“Gen AI’s next inflection point: From employee experimentation to organizational transformation – After nearly two years of debate, the verdict is in: generative AI (gen AI) is here to stay, and its business potential is massive. We’ve already witnessed an exponential rate of gen-AI-related innovation, which promises to accelerate automation and enhance productivity, innovation, and the quality of work, as well as the employee and customer experience. The companies that fail to act and adapt now will likely struggle to catch up in the future. Despite all the buzz, most companies have yet to scratch the surface of gen AI’s promise. A recent McKinsey Global Survey reveals that employees are far ahead of their organizations in using gen AI,¹ as companies have been slow to adopt in ways that could realize gen AI’s trillion-dollar opportunity.”, McKinsey & Co., August 7, 2024

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“The World’s Largest Stock Markets (1900 vs. 2023) – Data for 1900 comes from the DMS Database, accessed via the UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2024. Figures for 2023 are based on the FTSE Russell All-World Index Series Monthly Review (Dec 2023). Starting with 1900, we can see that the UK accounted for nearly one quarter of global market cap. Overall, European countries accounted for over 67% of global market cap in 1900. Looking at 2023’s data, we can see that much has changed since then.”, Visual Capitalist, DMS Database 2024 and FTSE Russell All-World Index Series Monthly Review, August 6, 2024

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“Tracking Changes in Global Demographics – Unexpectedly rapid declines in fertility suggest the population will peak this century. The latest edition of the U.N. World Population Prospects covers changes in demographic data after the COVID-19 pandemic. Life expectancy is rising, contributing to population growth, especially in developed countries. Despite falling fertility rates globally – down by one child per woman on average since 1990 – migration now plays a key role in sustaining population levels, particularly in developed regions. But while immigration helps the economy, it also risks social friction due to cultural clashes, forcing governments to balance the need for population growth with potential public resistance. Developed nations face tough decisions about supporting or limiting migration as other demographic solutions dwindle.”, Geopolitical Futures, August 16, 2024

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues

“America’s Resilient Oil Drillers Pump Out Another Record……the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Thursday that domestic oil and gas producers set another new record high in oil production during the week ended August 4. U.S. producers pumped out an amazing 13.4 million barrels per day (bpd) for the week, an increase of 800,000 bpd from the same week a year ago. This latest record represents the highest level of oil ever produced by any nation on earth. For context, this weekly production record is more than 3 times the 3.794 million bpd the U.S. produced in September 2008, just 16 years ago, and more than double the volume produced in September 2012.”, Forbes, August 11, 2024

Editor’s Note: 50 years ago the USA had to import 6 million barrels a day mostly from the Middle East and Venezuela. Today, The U.S. is one of the top suppliers of crude oil globally, and its export levels are expected to remain strong due to the ongoing high production rates and relatively stable domestic demand.

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“A man, a plan, a canal, Panama – On top of the partial blockage of Suez Canal trade by attacks from the Houthi militants, the world’s other great artificial waterway, the Panama Canal, has also been suffering. In this case it’s been a drought, most likely related to climate change, which reduced water levels in the canal from last July onwards. The FT reported last week that the bulk carriers that transport low-value, time-insensitive commodities such as grain and liquefied natural gas are unlikely to return to the canal, even though higher rainfall should restore its carrying capacity in September. Having adjusted to longer journeys to Asia around the southern tip of Africa rather than through the canal, they’re not in a hurry to pay the high transit fees and face the risk of renewed disruption. (The Suez Canal LNG trade had already shifted to the Cape of Good Hope route thanks to the Houthis, of course.)”, The Financial Times, August 19, 2024

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“Big Tech Uses More Electricity Than Entire Countries – Big Tech’s AI dreams are coming with a big energy price tag—technology companies and their data centers are consuming more electricity than countries with many millions of people. We compare Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Apple’s 2023 electricity use against select countries. Data sourced from company reports and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (2022). Google and Microsoft both consume more electricity (24 TWh) than countries like Jordan (population: 11 million) and Ghana (34 million).”, Visual Capitalist, U.S. Energy Information Administration, World Bank, Microsoft, Google, Apple, Statista and Forbes.”, August 12, 2024

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Global & Regional Travel & Living

“Delta takes fast, free Wi-Fi international – Delta’s industry-leading Wi-Fi rollout is taking off internationally. Starting this summer, customers on select Viasat-equipped long-haul international flights can enjoy fast, free Wi-Fi presented by T-Mobile – bringing the airline one step closer to recognizing its goal of offering free Wi-Fi on its entire global fleet. Today, free, streaming-quality connectivity is available on nearly 700 aircraft – more than 90% of Delta’s domestic mainline fleet – and the airline expects the vast majority of customers will have access to the product by the end of the year.”, Delta News Hub, August 12, 2024

Editor’s Note: A year and a half ago if there was wi-fi available (and it worked!!!) on long hall international flights it was slow and US$35-60 per trip.

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Book Review

“High Performance Through Happy People” by Elaine Jobson explores the direct correlation between employee happiness and organizational success. Jobson argues that a thriving workplace culture, where employees feel valued and fulfilled, leads to increased productivity, innovation, and overall business performance. The book provides actionable insights for leaders on how to cultivate happiness within their teams, emphasizing the importance of trust, recognition, and empowerment. By focusing on employee well-being, organizations can achieve sustainable high performance. Jobson’s approach offers a compelling case for prioritizing happiness as a core business strategy.

Elaine Jobson is the CEO and Managing Director of the Australia-based Jetts Fitness® franchise. She was2017 Outstanding Business Woman of the Year and Jetts Fitness® is consistently ranked as one of the top places to work in Australia.

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Country & Regional Updates

Australia

“Generative AI: How will it affect the future of work in Australia? With between 79 and 98 percent of jobs in Australia predicted to be automated by 2030, enabling vast productivity gains, how will this change the nature of work? Generative AI (gen AI) will have different effects on different sectors; however, early adopters in any sector can drive positive change—at the company and employee level—not only in productivity but also in the quality of work. Top-down thinking will be critical for a tech strategy that delivers value and enables an organization to scale. But where will this leave the individual? There will be an increasing demand for people with technical skills, social-emotional competencies, critical thinking and complex problem-solving capabilities, and good interpersonal skills; basic digital literacy will be necessary for almost every job.”, McKinsey & Co., August 9, 2024

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“Westpac Profit Rises – Westpac’s profit edged higher as pressure on margins eased and mortgage lending grew faster than the wider industry, offsetting a fragile outlook for the nation’s economy. The RBA remains some way off easing monetary policy, Governor Michele Bullock told a parliamentary panel in Canberra on Friday, as inflation is proving persistent and will only return back to the target range late next year.”, Bloomberg, August

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China

“China is now the world leader in coffee shops – But the average Chinese person still guzzles much less than a typical American. Between 2010 and 2022 coffee consumption per person in China rose fourfold (see chart), according to the International Coffee Organisation, a group of producer and user countries. (China’s GDP per person doubled over the same period.) The average Chinese person still drinks a fraction of the amount of coffee guzzled by the typical American: 0.1kg per year compared with 4.7kg. But last year China surpassed America, becoming the country with the most branded coffee shops (places like Starbucks) in the world, as the World Coffee Portal, a research firm, reported. China is home to nearly 50,000 such outlets., The Economist, August 8, 2024

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“GM Cuts China Jobs as It Resets in World’s Biggest Car Market – Carmaker eyeing production capacity cuts, people familiar say Long-anticipated restructuring targets once-flush business. The reassessment represents a major shift in strategy for GM, which earned billions of dollars in China as recently as 2018. The automaker is pulling back as many foreign brands are struggling with a profusion of local competitors in the world’s largest car market, which is now facing massive overcapacity. The reset involves a shift to producing electric vehicles, focusing on more upscale models and importing premium vehicles, these people said. GM and its joint ventures in China employ more than 58,000 people, according to a GM website.”, Bloomberg, August 12, 2024

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Czech Republic

“Semiconductor Factory Reshapes Czech Region’s Industrial Past – In the Czech town of Roznov pod Radhostem, a $2 billion investment by a US company promises to create a tech hub and help modernize the country’s stagnating economy. It’s the biggest bet by a foreign company in the Czech Republic in three decades. Arizona-based ON Semiconductor, or Onsemi, is expanding an existing operation, where about 2,200 employees in the Eastern European country make 10 million chips a day for customers such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Siemens, Apple and Samsung Electronics. The planned investment will create 800 new jobs over the next seven years, Bloomberg’s Krystof Chamonikolas and Michal Kubala report on Tuesday.”, Bloomberg, August 13, 2024

Editor’s Note: I lived in Prague from 1999-2001 while being the COO of a U.S. franchise licensee for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. 10 years out of communism the Czech people were very hard-working capitalists and still are.

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France

“Olympics Lift French Employment – Based on second-quarter data, however, the bump looks temporary. Employment levels in France have fluctuated significantly in 2024. In the first quarter, the private sector added 61,100 jobs, but in the second quarter, it lost 7,900 jobs. A likely contributing factor was a first-quarter surge in demand for workers during preparations for the Olympics. In another noteworthy development, the employment rate for those aged 50-64 – a group that faces heightened challenges in securing jobs – increased significantly. The key question now is whether these employment gains will persist after the Olympics, capitalizing on seasonal trends, or if they were merely temporary. The job losses in the second quarter suggest the need for caution in assessing the long-term impact of these jobs.”, Geopolitical Futures, August 9, 2024

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India

“What does the future hold for India? This may be India’s century. We look ahead at seven trends likely to shape the country for years to come—and help it achieve its development goals. India is a place of superlatives. It’s home to the world’s fifth-largest economy. Its population, at over 1.4 billion people, has surpassed China’s to become the largest in the world. And that population is young: at a median age of 27.6, Indians are on average more than ten years younger than the citizens of most other major economies. In 2024, India also held the world’s largest democratic elections, in which 642 million people cast their ballots., McKinsey & Co., July 3, 2024

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Indonesia

“Indonesian fishermen are using a government AI tool to find their daily catch – Unlike wealthier nations where startups and Big Tech take the lead on AI, an Indonesian government agency is leading the charge and focusing on practical applications. The NN Marlin application can locate the densest fishing grounds based on the sea surface temperature and the level of chlorophyll. The app uses machine learning to crunch satellite data and remote sensing to identify schools of fish within a certain radius. ‘Now, catching fish is much more certain and efficient,’ 42-year-old Dedi told Rest of World. ‘We are guaranteed to get fish every day, and the use of fuel is also more efficient.’”, RestOfWorld.org, August 9, 2024

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Japan

“Japan’s Economy Sees Consumption-Led Rebound in Tailwind for BOJ – Private spending rebounds, suggesting virtuous cycle emerging. Data create positive backdrop ahead of LDP leadership election. apan’s economy rebounded to growth in the second quarter on the back of an increase in private consumption, in a sign that a virtuous cycle long sought by the central bank linking rising incomes to increased spending may be starting to emerge. Gross domestic product expanded at an annualized pace of 3.1% in the three months through June versus the prior period, the Cabinet Office reported Thursday. The reading, which exceeded the 2.3% consensus estimate, came after the economy contracted by a revised 2.3% in the first quarter.”, Bloomberg, August 14, 2024

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United Kingdom

“Restaurant sector shakes off blues with return to growth – The number of outlets is rising again with three net new sites a week opening in first half of 2024. The fortunes of the casual dining sector, which suffered under the twin pressures of Covid and soaring inflation, have taken a turn for the better. The number of midmarket restaurants is up for the first time since the pandemic. According to Hospitality Market Monitor, the number of outlets had reached 6,696 when lockdown was imposed in March 2020. That had tumbled to 5,082 by June 2023, equivalent to more than one closure a day. Now there is a modest return to growth, with a 1.7 per cent increase in the number of casual dining venues in the past 12 months, an average of three net new sites a week in the first half of 2024. Hospitality Market Monitor suggests that the turnaround applies to the wider industry, with the number of licensed premises up by 0.5 per cent between March and June, comprising 462 net new openings, or five a day.”, The Times of London, August 19, 2024

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United States

“The Surging Value of the Magnificent Seven (2000-2024) – The Magnificent Seven are some of the largest companies in the U.S. stock market today, but things looked quite different back in 2000. At that time, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Nvidia had a combined value of just $244 billion. Alphabet (Google) was still a private company, and Meta (Facebook) and Tesla weren’t even founded yet. In this visualization, creator Ehsan Soltani looks at the market capitalization of these prominent technology companies over the last few decades using data from CompaniesMarketCap.com as well as Yahoo Finance. As of July 2024, the Magnificent Seven companies are worth $15.4 trillion combined. The below table shows their market capitalization from 2000 to 2024 in billions of dollars.”, Visual Capitalist, CompaniesMarketCap, Yahoo Finance, August 14, 2024

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“US Retail Sales Chugging Along – Brisk July retail sales along with fewer applications for unemployment benefits underscored a US economy with staying power as inflationary pressures gradually subside. Across the Atlantic, the UK jobless rate fell and wage growth cooled, while euro-zone productivity dropped for a sixth straight quarter and job growth slowed. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment in China slumped on investor concerns about the economy. The value of retail sales increased in July by the most since early 2023 in a broad advance and firmer sales guidance by Walmart Inc., a barometer of growth, also indicated that shoppers are becoming more selective but are still spending.”, Bloomberg, August 17, 2024

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Bill Edwards and Keith Gerson Announce the Formation of The Franchise Consortium

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Brand & Franchising News

“Tropical Smoothie Eyes $610 Million Securitization – Whole-business deals are popular among franchise-heavy firms. Such transactions have surged this year in a hot ABS market. Tropical Smoothie Café is attempting to raise $610 million in its first-ever securitization, just two months after Blackstone Inc. funds acquired the drinks-and-food chain. The funds’ acquisition of Tropical Smoothie was valued at around $1.7 billion, according to a Kroll Bond Rating Agency pre-sale report for the securitization dated Monday. The chain has more than 1,400 locations, all but one franchised, according to Kroll, up nearly 500 since December 2020. Blackstone said when the deal closed that it planned to accelerate Tropical Smoothie’s national expansion. Revenue topped $1.3 billion for the year through March 2024 and same-store sales have climbed 12 consecutive years, Kroll’s report said.”, Bloomberg, August 12, 2023

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“Starbucks replaces CEO with Chipotle CEO after coming under activist investor pressure – Starbucks replaces CEO with Chipotle CEO after coming under activist investor pressure: Starbucks has hired Chipotle chief executive Brian Niccol to replace Laxman Narasimhan, who leaves the business with immediate effect. Niccol joined Chipotle as chief executive and a director in March 2018, and became chairman in March 2020. Before joining Chipotle, he served as chief executive of Taco Bell.”, Propel, August 13, 2024

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“M.U.M.B.O.s: Franchising’s New Heavyweights – In the franchise development world, not all prospective franchisees are alike. And in case you’ve been stranded on an island, the whale of all prospects for many franchisors is called a M.U.M.B.O. – a multi-unit, multi-brand operator. That’s code for well-capitalized, diversified, experienced and in need of very little hand-holding on the part of franchisors. These franchisees are savvy. They hire well. They employ strong teams. They know their way around an FDD(Franchise Disclosure Document). And best of all, they tend to execute on time to achieve strong track records and top accolades for the brands they champion.”, By Monica Feid, FranchiseWire, August 10, 2024.

Editor’s Note: Please also see “MUMBO-fication, Multi-branding grows across international borders” published in 2022 in ‘Franchise Update’ magazine by your Editor.

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“Protection of Intellectual Property in Franchise Systems – Intellectual property (IP) covers a wide range of information, such as trade marks, confidential information, the manuals, trade secrets, know how, business systems, company names, logos, symbols, insignia, email addresses, business know how, client lists and client information. Prior to issuing franchise agreements, the franchisor should register all trade marks that will be used in the system.”, Corporate LiveWire, Export Guide 2024, Compliments of Khushbu Sundarji, Stewart Germann Law Office, Auckland, New Zealand

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“Popeyes Fuels Growing Demand Across The World – The chicken chain’s international business now earns more than $1 billion in systemwide sales. Since RBI acquired the brand in March 2017, it has grown from more than 500 international restaurants generating roughly $300 million in annual system sales to nearly 1,300 restaurants and over $1 billion in systemwide sales. Same-store sales rose 19.4 percent in the second quarter. In 2019, Popeyes entered Spain with the help of a Burger King operator. Now there are close to 140 restaurants in the market, with clear runway for future development. In the U.K. and India, there are 50 stores each—achieved in less than three years. Popeyes sees more growth in those trade areas, as well as France, which has 16 units in about a year. The chain also recently debuted in New Zealand, and that restaurant is projected to earn $6 million in annual sales. That’s one of the strongest country debuts the brand has ever experienced.”, QSR magazine, August 9, 2024

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“Q&A: offer and sale of franchises in Japan – Franchising is very widespread in Japan. According to the data published by the Japan Franchise Association, for the period from April 2022 to March 2022, the number of chains operating in Japan stood at 1,282 with 249,316 stores and a total turnover of approximately ¥27 trillion. Among other sectors, convenience stores are particularly common in Japan, with a total of 57,451 outlets as at 2022…..franchisors whose businesses fall under the definition of a specified chain business are required to provide a written document that describes prescribed items and to explain the contents of the written documents prior to executing a franchise agreement with prospective franchisees.”, Lexology, July 4, 2024

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“The Dickey’s Barbecue Pit in Lahore Is Just the Latest Example of Pakistanis Embracing Texan Culture – Texas-style barbecue is very popular in the country better known for charcoal-grilled meats. But it’s been obsessed with all things Texas since the nineties. On a hot June afternoon, Mazhar Zaidi is sitting at one of the dining tables on the ground floor of Dickey’s Barbecue Pit in Lahore, Pakistan. The top floor has a few families and groups of friends occupying the tables, enjoying some of Dickey’s specialties, such as the brisket and the short ribs. Zaidi offers barbecue platters to the candidates he is interviewing to help market the Dallas-based franchise he brought to the food capital of Pakistan three years ago. Texas’ trademark pit-smoked barbecue is in stark contrast to the traditional tikka, meat grilled usually over coal, that Lahore is renowned for. Also, unlike Texas, the meat barbecued in Dickey’s Lahore outlet is predominantly beef, since pork, which is forbidden in Islam, isn’t consumed in the 97 percent, Muslim-majority country. The location also offers chicken and mutton.”, Texas Monthly, August 12, 2024

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Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 114, Tuesday, August 6, 2024

Posted on Aug 5th, 2024 in Asia Pacific, Europe, India, Miscellaneous, Predictions and Trends, Professional Development, World Culture, World Economy | Comments Off

Commentary about the 114th Issue: Vistage CEO Confidence Index took a dip in Q2 2024 while U.S. consumer confidence was up in June. Three of every four employers globally reported difficulty finding the talent they need. The U.S. and Canada lead G7 country wage growth from 2020-2022. Singapore is the safest city in Asia. A Big Mac® costs US$5.69 in the U.S., US$8.17 in the Czech Republic and US$2.39 in Taiwan. U.S. importers are rushing goods in early ahead of shipping disruptions. 7 ways AI is changing business travel. A look at real GDP growth in European countries in 2023. Jamie Diamond says businesspeople need to travel more. The United Kingdom’s consumer inflation falls to 2%. And is Paris ready for Wingstop® restaurants?

Reports in this edition from Australia, Canada, China, Europe, Mexico, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the USA.

Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“The battleline between good and evil runs through the heart of every man.”, Alexander Solzhenitsyn

“For the only way in which a durable peace can be created is by worldwide restoration of economic activity and international trade.”, James Forrestal

“You must be the change you wish to see in the world.”, Mahatma Gandhi

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Highlights in issue #114:

Vistage Q2 2024 CEO Confidence Index Highlights
2024 Global Talent Shortage
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says travel is essential for business leaders
U.S. Importers Are Rushing Goods in Early Ahead of Shipping Disruptions
7 Ways AI Is Changing Business Travel
The 10 Busiest Ports in the World, by Cargo Traffic
This Asian City Was Crowned World’s Safest Destination For Travelers
Coal’s Asian Comeback
Is Paris ready for Wingstop?
Brand Global News Section: 7-11®, Carl’s Jr®, Guzman Y Gomez®, Luckin Coffee®, Taco Bell®, McDonalds® and Wingstop®

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“Vistage Q2 2024 CEO Confidence Index Highlights – The Vistage Confidence Index provides a quarterly report on the outlook CEOs of SMB companies have about the economy, hiring, and profitability. CEO confidence takes a dip”, Vistage, August 2024

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“2024 Global Talent Shortage – Three of every four employers globally reported difficulty finding the talent they need, with the biggest impacts being felt in Japan. Employers in the Health Care and Life Sciences industry reported the most difficulty. IT & Data skills are the most challenging to find, regardless of industry and geography. Today, 75% of employers report difficultly in filling roles.”, The Manpower Group, July 31, 2024

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“Massive appropriation of labor from the Global South enables high consumption in rich countries – The high levels of consumption enjoyed by wealthy countries in the Global North are only possible because of mass appropriation of labor from the population of the Global South….. the Global North imported 906 billion hours of embodied labor from the South while exporting only 80 billion hours in return. In other words, for every hour of labor the Global South imports from the Global North, they must export 11 hours to “pay” for it. The wage value of this net-appropriated labor was equivalent to €16.9 trillion in 2021, in Northern prices. In other words, this is how much the appropriated labor would be worth if it was paid at prevailing Northern wages, with equal wages for equal work.”, Phys.org, July 29, 2024

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“WTO (World Trade Organization) Members Signal Progress on Draft E-Commerce Deal – Pact is designed to ban tariffs on fast-growing digital trade. List of participants doesn’t include India and South Africa. About half of the World Trade Organization’s members reached a preliminary deal on e-commerce to permanently ban tariffs on digital transactions that are zipping across borders at twice the growth rate of physical merchandise. Among the 91 participants were the US, China, Japan, the UK and the major economies of the European Union — although Washington also signaled a reluctance to fully endorse it.”, Bloomberg, July 27, 2024

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues

“Wage Growth In G7 Countries – 2020-2022 – Average wage growth is a key sign of how well a country’s economy is doing. When wages rise, it typically signals that businesses are thriving and can afford to pay their employees more, which in turn boosts consumer spending and stimulates further economic growth. On the other hand, stagnant or declining wages can indicate economic challenges, such as high unemployment, low productivity, or weak business performance. This graph shows the average annual real wage growth for full-time workers of G7 countries from 2000 to 2022. The data comes from the OECD and is updated as of March 2024. Data is in U.S. dollars and adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP), which equalizes the purchasing power of different currencies. Wages are adjusted for inflation to reflect 2021 prices.”, Visual Capitalist and OECD, July 15, 2024

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“The Price of a Big Mac Across the World – The Big Mac Index, created by The Economist in 1986, started out as a simple tool to make currency theory more digestible. Now, it’s a widely-known measure in popular economics to assess and compare currency valuations. In short, the Big Mac index compares the purchasing power parity (PPP) of currencies using the price of a Big Mac in the U.S. as the benchmark. It shows how much a Big Mac costs in various countries compared to the U.S., but it also works as a way to assess exchange rates. In this graphic, we visualize the price of a McDonald’s Big Mac in U.S. dollars between 13 different countries around the world, the eurozone, and the United States, using the latest January 2024 data from The Economist’s Big Mac Index dataset.”, The Economist, July 22, 2024

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“Coal’s Asian Comeback – Southeast Asia’s renewable energy potential is some of the greatest in the world. In bold pursuit of renewable energy, Vietnam is undertaking an unorthodox but promising green hydrogen strategy, Thailand’s Prime Minister has promised to explore the cutting edge of nuclear power, and the Philippines has received broad praise for its commitment to renewables and regional trend-setting. Indonesia and the Philippines, for example, are increasing their dependence on coal. The share of power generated by coal in both the Philippines and Indonesia both recently surpassed China, becoming some of the world’s most coal-dependent countries. According to the London-based think tank Ember, coal generation in the Philippines grew much faster than the rise in electricity demand in 2023 – coal generation grew by about 9.7%, while electricity demand grew by 4.6%. Both Indonesia and the Philippines reached over 61% coal generation.”, Forbes, July 28, 2024

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“U.S. Importers Are Rushing Goods in Early Ahead of Shipping Disruptions – The strategy comes as freight rates are rising and new tariffs are set to hit some goods from China. Import containers have been landing at American seaports in far bigger numbers than usual since the late spring, marking an early start to the annual peak shipping season leading into the fall. It also marks a big bet for importers who risk being stuck with excess inventories if consumers don’t pick up their spending. Paul Bingham, director of transportation consulting at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said U.S. retailers and manufacturers don’t want to risk lost sales, even though they are paying a steep price as shipping disruptions drive up container rates to levels not seen since the Covid pandemic. ‘A natural reaction of supply-chain managers in the face of potential further disruption, even though the rates are higher, has been to advance the shipping times,’ Bingham said. Supply-chain executives see warning signs flashing around the globe, from drought-triggered limitations at the Panama Canal to the threat of a strike by dockworkers at U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports this fall.”, The Wall Street Journal, July 23, 2024

Editor’s Note: A TEU (twenty-foot equivalent unit) is a measure of volume in units of twenty-foot long shipping containers.

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“New Labor Unrest Hits U.S. Ports – The peak shipping season is getting underway with another threat of labor disruption at American ports. The union representing about 45,000 workers at ports from Maine to Texas and the seaport employers are in a standoff with no negotiations on the calendar and the current longshore contract due to expire in a little over two months. German port workers are considering a “final offer” from employers after staging several walkouts in recent weeks. (Maritime Executive). A vote at a Coventory warehouse to force Amazon to recognize a union for the first time in the U.K. fell just short of a majority. (Financial Times).”, The Wall Street Journal, July 2024

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“The 10 Busiest Ports in the World, by Cargo Traffic – In 2024, nine of the world’s 10 busiest ports are located in Asia, underscoring the eastward shift in global trade flows. Due to supply chain shifts and deeper integration, intraregional trade within Asia has grown significantly. In the 1990s, over 70% of Asian exports by value went beyond the region, with containers being shipped back mostly empty. By comparison, roughly 60% of exports in Asia are traded within the region today. As we can see, seven out of the 10 busiest ports in the world are located in China, illustrating its central role in global manufacturing and trade. Since 2009, the country has been the largest exporter of goods in the world.”, Visual Capitalist, July 26, 2024

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“In the U.S., the AI Revolution Could Create Localized Power Crunches – The growth of U.S. data centers will run into power availability issues and permitting bottlenecks, spurring more technology companies to secure access to electricity directly from renewable power generators, though any systemic risks to electrical grids will likely be localized. The ongoing surge of demand from data centers, as well as from the electrification of many sectors amid the energy transition and intermittent renewable energy sources, will aggravate the challenges for interconnection grids. Facing power availability and permitting bottlenecks risks, technology companies setting up large data centers will be increasingly creative in trying to buy on a long-term basis reliable renewable energy power, even if at a relatively high cost.”, Worldview Rane, July 26, 2024

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Global & Regional Travel & Living

“JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says travel is essential for business leaders – Business travel, long a vital part of a CEO’s job, is rebounding to pre-pandemic norms despite the increased use of videoconferencing tools. And for good reason, says JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, who admits he’s constantly on the road because executives must prioritize face-to-face interactions with their employees, customers, and clients. ‘Leaders have to get out. They have to get out all the time. They have to be curious; ask a million questions,’ he recently said on LinkedIn’s This is Working series. Corporate travel, according to Dimon, also allows leaders to identify and learn from competitors about their company’s market position, as well as client needs and criticisms. he CEO said he’s often amazed by how many leaders lack a realistic assessment of what’s going on beyond their limited scope in both the public and private sectors. This leads to the creation of poor policies.”, Fortune, July 29, 2024

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“7 Ways AI Is Changing Business Travel – Someday a computer-generated avatar may explain why you can’t fly business class to Dubai. In the meantime, travel management and travel tech companies are testing how to apply Gen AI to various parts of business travel. Travelport, a tech company that provides reservation software for travel agents, this month introduced a feature called the Content Curation Layer (CCL). This feature uses AI to improve travel searches by quickly sorting through billions of options to find the best matches for customers. Business travelers dread filing expense reports. When various tools sync, though, the process can be simpler. Tech integrations can enable suppliers, such as airlines and hotels, to send electronic receipts straight to the expense reports required by companies. Travelers can ideally just click to submit items via travel management software. Skift, July 26, 2024

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“This Asian City Was Crowned World’s Safest Destination For Travelers – According to a new Forbes Advisor survey, Singapore is the world’s safest tourist destination, a remarkable feat for the city-state. The comprehensive analysis evaluated 60 international destinations and placed Singapore at the top of the list, cementing its reputation as a secure location for global travelers. The research examined various safety parameters, including crime rates, healthcare quality, infrastructure, and risks related to natural disasters and digital security. It assigned safety rankings ranging from 0 to 100, with the safest cities earning the lowest scores. Singapore achieved a perfect score of 0 points in the study, indicating the lowest possible risk across all categories assessed.”, Travel & Noire, August 2, 2024

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Book Review

“Own the AI Revolution” by Neil Sahota and Michael Ashley is a guide for leveraging artificial intelligence to drive business growth and innovation. The book offers practical insights into integrating AI into various industries, emphasizing its potential to transform operations, enhance customer experiences, and create competitive advantages.

It includes real-world case studies, strategies for AI adoption, and discussions on ethical considerations and future trends. The authors aim to demystify AI, making it accessible for business leaders and entrepreneurs to harness its power effectively and responsibly in their organizations.

Editor’s Note: Neil Sahota was a keynote speaker at the May 23rd, 2024 Orange County World Trade Week conference in Irvine, California. Neil simpllfies AI for the audie

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Country & Regional Updates

Australia

“Small business confidence dips amid economic strain – Small businesses in Australia are feeling the pinch, with financial confidence significantly lagging behind their big business counterparts, according to CreditorWatch’s latest Business Sentiment Survey. The survey highlights the unique challenges faced by small businesses in the current economic climate. CreditorWatch’s survey results show that 82 per cent of decision-makers in large businesses feel confident about their financial health, rating it as ‘good’ or ‘very good’. This drops slightly to 76 per cent among medium-sized businesses but plummets to just 45 per cent among small businesses. This gap in financial sentiment highlights just how vulnerable small businesses are to the ups and downs of the economy.”, Australian Business Builders, July 30, 2024

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Canada

“American invasion: Why so many U.S. fast food chains are charging into Canada – Here are the chains making a run for the northern border and why they believe Canadians have a growing appetite for fast food. In relatively short order, Canada has become a hotbed for fast foodexpansion from the United States. Shake Shack opened its first Canadian location in Toronto last week, with plans for 34 more restaurants by 2035. Sandwich shops Jimmy John’s and Jersey Mike’s are also among the American chains with sights set on the Canadian market. The Canadian restaurant market is quite different than what Shake Shack is used to in the U.S., said Robert Carter, a food industry analyst with StratonHunter Group, in an interview held before Shake Shack revealed its first Toronto location. ‘They’re coming from a market that’s $800 billion in size to a market that’s $90 to $100 billion in size here in Canada,’ he said. ‘Too many times we’ll have a U.S. brand that’ll come into the market and think just because it’s a smaller market or they’re just close to the U.S., it’s going to be the same strategy or marketing plan, when in fact there’s nuances they’ll have to address.’”, The Financial Post, April 30, 2024

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China

“China’s non-financial debt growth slows with firms and households unwilling to leverage up – ‘China’s macro leverage ratio is now higher than other major economies, which is due to years of persistently weak price increase,’ the report published by the Beijing-based National Institute for Finance and Development said on Monday. ‘We need to crank up countercyclical adjustment to bring about inflation to counter the rising leverage trend, boost business confidence and tackle risks’. Growth of debt within China’s non-financial sectors fell to the lowest level in more than two decades in the second quarter as corporations and households remained reluctant to borrow, according to a Beijing-based think tank.”, South China Morning Post, July 23, 2024

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“China looks for new ways to boost spending on services, from senior care to tourism – China is pinning more hopes on the services sector to lift demand and breathe new life into the economy, with a raft of new measures to boost spending in areas ranging from tourism to care for the elderly. In a 20-point directive released on the weekend, the State Council, the country’s cabinet, said it would increase support for nursing care, consider extending visa-free policies to more countries, and encourage “low-altitude tourism” to spur spending on services, a sector that is growing faster than goods. In the first half of 2024, 14.64 million overseas visitors entered the country, roughly 2½ times the number for the same period last year, as authorities reinstated the 144-hour free transit visa to cover 54 countries and 37 entry points, according to the most recent official data. In addition, services related to basic home-based needs such as catering, elderly care, childcare and housekeeping should also be expanded, it said.”, South China Morning Post, August 4, 2024

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Europe

““Real GDP Growth Rate in European Countries – 2023 – The economic landscape in Europe during 2023 presented a fascinating mix of rapid growth and unexpected downturns, reflecting the continent’s complex and varied economies. In a surprising turn, Montenegro emerged as the fastest-growing economy in Europe in 2023. This small Balkan country’s gross domestic product (GDP) surged by 4.5%, outpacing other nations in the region. Montenegro’s growth was driven by a booming tourism sector, investments in infrastructure, and a strong rebound from the pandemic’s economic impacts. Turkey and Malta also posted impressive growth rates, with Turkey growing at 4% and Malta at 3.8%. Turkey’s economy benefited from robust export performance and a resilient domestic market, while Malta saw gains from its financial services sector and a recovering tourism industry. Estonia experienced the largest negative growth, with its economy shrinking by 2.3%. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, also faced challenges, experiencing slightly negative growth at -0.5%.”, Statista and World Bank, August 3, 2024

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Mexico

“Assessing Mexico’s Post-Election Economic Outlook – Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s pledge to pursue a constitutional reform that would overhaul the country’s judicial and institutional systems could diminish Mexico’s attractiveness as a destination for foreign investment at a time when the country stands to benefit from global supply chain restructuring. In recent weeks, president-elect Sheinbaun has promised to pass a wide-ranging constitutional reform that would affect labor rights, environmental issues, and independent government regulatory bodies, including the National Electoral Institute, among other agencies. Some of these proposals have heightened domestic and foreign investor concerns about Mexico’s institutional stability and predictability.”, Worldview Stratfor, August 1, 2024

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Turkey

“Corporate Turkey’s patience in economic reboot wanes – While a shift to a more rational strategy has support, the impact of moves to tame inflation are biting. Corporate Turkey is finally feeling the pinch of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s radical departure from years of unconventional economic policies. Not everyone is happy with the new normal. The central bank, which is now run by former US Federal Reserve economist Fatih Karahan, has lifted its main interest rate from 8.5 per cent last June to 50 per cent in March. The mechanism for the transmission of monetary policy to the economy that was severed by the previous unorthodox measures appears now to be more functional, meaning once-easy financial conditions are tightening.”, The Financial Times, July 30, 2024

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United Kingdom

Economist Business Section – Britain’s headline annual rate of inflation stayed at 2% in June, slightly above analysts’ forecasts. Services inflation remained sticky at 5.7%. The figures caused some traders to reduce their bets that the Bank of England will cut interest rates in August.”, The Economist, July 18, 2024

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“Growth of UK economy upgraded but falls short of Labour’s target – Bank of England forecasts that GDP will expand by 1.25 per cent this year, while sterling and markets fell in response to the interest rate cut. Downward pressure on the pound was fuelled by the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee voting 5-4 in favour of reducing the UK base rate by 0.25 percentage points to 5 per cent from 5.25 per cent.

Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank, hinted that interest rates are unlikely to fall rapidly over the coming months. However, analysts doubted that assumption, intensifying the sterling sell-off.”, The Times of London, July 22, 2024

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United States

““(US) Consumer Confidence Jumps in June – Consumer confidence increased in June with households feeling more confident in their ability to make ends meet and more confident in the job market, according to the Numerator Consumer Sentiment Tracker. The report also showed an increased comfort with nonessential spending. The June Consumer Confidence Score was 57.1 (+0.3 vs. May), which is an average of how consumers feel about the job market, their household finances, and their spending comfort levels. 40% of consumers think it’s very or somewhat easy to find employment in the current job market. Meanwhile, 27% think it’s somewhat or very difficult. 49% of consumers say their household’s financial situation is currently good or very good. 41% of consumers are very or somewhat comfortable spending money on discretionary purchases right now. Consumers with spare cash say they’re putting it in savings (36.2%) and paying down debts (33.3%). 13.2% of consumers say they do not have any spare cash (-2.9 points vs. May).”, Franchising.com, August 2024

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Brand & Franchising News

““Carl’s Jr (Australia) franchisees set to meet with US parent – The parent of US burger chain Carl’s Jr is holding talks about directly licensing its brand to the 25 burger shops still trading in Australia, after the local master licensee and 24 restaurants entered voluntary administration. CJ’s QSR Group, which is the corporate entity that rules Carl’s Jr’s brand in Australia, appointed KPMG as voluntary administrators on Monday. A creditor meeting will be held next week and administrators said they will conduct an immediate sale process of the stores caught up in the administration. The move surprised other franchisees, said BKG Group’s Lindsay Brennan. The BKG Group…….opened Carl Jr’s first Australian store in Bateau Bay in 2016. It still owns two Carl Jr’s stores, Mr Brennan said.”, Australian Financial Review, July 30, 2024

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““Chicken chain Wingstop fires up sale of British operation – The trio of entrepreneurs behind the UK’s fastest-growing restaurant chain have hired Goldman Sachs to explore a sale after six years of rapid growth, Sky News learns. The sale is being launched as Wingstop prepares to launch its 50th outlet in the UK. It is aiming to have 57 sites open by the end of the year, with substantial room for further growth even in a market saturated by competitors. Sources said the company believed it could ultimately reach between 400 and 500 sites in Britain. Wingstop has also become one of the industry’s biggest employers in the UK, with a workforce of about 2,200 people.”, Sky News, August 3, 2024

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““Is Paris ready for Wingstop? – Piggybacking on the Olympics, the fast-casual chicken chain is opening a pop-up restaurant in the French capital, a teaser to what could become 200 restaurants in the country. Dallas-based chicken-wing slinger Wingstop will debut its Maison des Saveurs (that’s “House of Flavor” for the uncultured among us) in the heart of Paris, a pop-up restaurant tied to the opening of the Summer Olympics that also serves as an amuse bouche of sorts for the chain’s planned official entry into Paris later this year. The fast casual opened its first (and, so far, only) French location in 2019 in Toulon, more than 500 miles south of Paris. At that time, French franchisee Brescia Investissement SAS said it planned to open 75 Wingstops in France by 2029.”, Restaurant Business, July 24, 2024

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““We’re literally going to need a bigger burrito: can Guzman y Gomez crack the crowded US market? – The chain’s much-hyped expansion plan includes selling meatier burritos than in Australia for a lower price, but marketing Mexican-themed food in the Americas is a tough ask. When the Mexican-themed food chain Guzman y Gomez listed on the Australian stock market in June, its share price rocketed by more than one-third in a single day of trading, creating a $3bn company. One factor that won over investors was a pledge to aggressively expand in Australia and push deep into the lucrative US market.

GyG plans to increase the number of its Australian stories from less than 200 to more than 1,000, a figure chosen to rival McDonald’s, and build on its international network, which now includes four outlets in the Chicago area.”, The Guardian, August 2, 2024

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” “Competition differentiation in the (Mainland China) coffee market different approaches of Starbucks Luckin Coffee and Coodi – Luckin Coffee, Starbucks, and Kudi Coffee are the top three companies in terms of the number of coffee shops in China. Under the fierce market competition, each has chosen a different business path. Luckin Coffee’s revenue still exceeded that of Starbucks China, and Starbucks China’s operating profit margin was higher. While Starbucks cut its prices, Luckin Coffee also fell into the dilemma of price war. Luckin Coffee’s performance in the first quarter of this year turned from profit to loss, with a net loss of 71.42 million yuan, compared with a net profit of 564 million yuan in the same period last year. The drop in product prices did not bring an increase in transaction volume for Starbucks China. The financial report shows that during the reporting period, Starbucks China’s same-store sales fell by 14%. Kudi Coffee is positioned as a store opening platform, and its core lies in the conversion of store business. Kudi Coffee does not charge franchise fees, and the collection of service fees also adopts a gradient model.”, Economic Observor, August 2, 2024. English translation and article provided by Paul Jones, Jones & Company, Toronto

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““Taco Bell set to roll out automated drive-thru ordering at many restaurants – Taco Bell aims to complete its expansion by the end of the year. Taco Bell is set to add AI drive-thrus at many of its restaurants. it already has the system at eateries in 13 states. (Copyright 2019 The Associated Press. All rights reserved) Taco Bell is looking to roll out artificial technology at hundreds of drive-thrus across the country, parent company Yum! Brands announced Wednesday. Yum! Brands, which currently operates voice AI technology in over 100 Taco Bell drive-thrus across 13 states, aims to complete its expansion by the end of the year. The company said the rollout ‘is designed to enhance back-of-house operations for team members and elevate the order experience for consumers.’ The potential benefits, the company says, include easier workdays for employees, improved order accuracy, more consistent, friendly experience, reduced wait times and higher profit growth.”, The Independent, July 31, 2024

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“7-Eleven Philippines targets 450 new stores in two regions – 7-Eleven operator PSC (Philippine Seven Corp) is planning to open 450 new stores in Visayas and Mindanao as part of an aggressive expansion in the country. Since its establishment in the Philippines in 1984, the convenience store network has expanded to 3829 branches nationwide. 7-Eleven expects to reach its 4000th store milestone by the end of Q4 this year.”, Inside Retail (Australia), July 23, 2024

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Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 113, Tuesday, July 23, 2024

Posted on Jul 22nd, 2024 in Asia Pacific, Europe, India, Miscellaneous, Predictions and Trends, Professional Development, World Culture, World Economy | Comments Off

Commentary about the 113th Issue: Average salaries in 30 countries. Regenerative AI and the world’s software market. Microsoft orders all China staff to use iPhones. U.S. fast food chains raise prices more then 50% in the last ten years. Canada set to be the fastest growing G7 country in 2025. How to stay healthy at 35,000 feet.Commentary about the 113th Issue: Average salaries in 30 countries. Regenerative AI and the world’s software market. Microsoft orders all China staff to use iPhones. U.S. fast food chains raise prices more than 50% in the last ten years.

How to stay healthy at 35,000 feet. Saudi Arabia allows first sale of alcohol (really!). U.S. must add 290 terawatt hours of electricity by 2030. Olive Garden® parent buys Chuy’s®. McDonald s plans to have more than 10,000 restaurants in mainland China by 2028. Fossil fuels made up 81% of global energy consumption in 2023. India projects growth of 6.5%-7% vs 8.2% last year. And the United States and China combine for a massive 43.2% share of the global economy.

Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with any questions, comments and contributions.

Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“Train people well enough so they can leave, treat them well enough so they don’t want to.”, Richard Branson, business magnate and founder of Virgin Group

“Get the right people. Then no matter what all else you might do wrong after that, the people will save you. That’s what management is all about.”, Tom DeMarco, software engineer

“Of all the things I’ve done, the most vital is coordinating the talents of those who work for us and pointing them toward a certain goal.”, Walt Disney

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Highlights in issue #113:

Average Annual Salaries by Country
Economic conditions outlook, June 2024
Microsoft Orders China Staff to Use iPhones for Work and Drop Android
Inflation Across U.S. Fast Food Chains (2014-2024)
Small Businesses Still Struggling
Staying Healthy at 35,000 Feet
Brand Global News Section: Chuy’s®, Dominos®, Herbalife®, McDonalds®, Olive Garden® and Sol Bowl®

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“Software’s byte of the gen AI apple – Generative AI’s (gen AI’s) quick adoption over the past year suggests that the global software sector will undergo a major change, senior partner Jeremy Schneider and coauthors note. But based on a McKinsey survey of software leaders and executives, it is anticipated that gen AI will affect each software category to a different degree. Content creation is one of three areas expected to see a very high level of disruption, while system infrastructure is on the other end of the disruption spectrum. Overall, gen AI could spark almost $300 billion in new software spending over the next few years.”, McKinsey & Co., July 9, 2024

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“Economic conditions outlook, June 2024 – Executives’ views on the world economy remain more positive than negative, though they believe a recession is increasingly likely. In their own economies, concerns over unemployment are growing. So far in 2024, survey respondents seem more sanguine about the economy than they were for much of 2023. In our newest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions,¹ respondents tend to say that conditions in their countries and globally are improving rather than declining and will continue to improve in the months ahead. Yet they also foresee a few clouds gathering on the horizon.”, McKinsey & Co., June 27, 2024

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“Help wanted: Charting the challenge of tight labor markets in advanced economies – Labor markets in advanced economies today are among the tightest in two decades, not merely a pandemic-induced blip but rather a long-term trend that may continue as workforces age. Tightness means forgone economic output. We estimate that GDP in 2023 could have been 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent higher across these economies if employers had been able to fill their excess job vacancies. Companies and economies will need to boost productivity and find new ways to expand the workforce. Otherwise, they will struggle to exceed—or even match—the relatively muted economic growth of the past decade.”, McKinsey & Co., June 28, 2024

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“WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE – Global growth is projected to be in line with the April 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, at 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025. However, varied momentum in activity at the turn of the year has somewhat narrowed the output divergence across economies as cyclical factors wane and activity becomes better aligned with its potential. Services price inflation is holding up progress on disinflation, which is complicating monetary policy normalization. Upside risks to inflation have thus increased, raising the prospect of higher-for-even-longer interest rates, in the context of escalating trade tensions and increased policy uncertainty. To manage these risks and preserve growth, the policy mix should be sequenced carefully to achieve price stability and replenish diminished buffers.”, International Monetary Fund, July 2024

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues

“Average Annual Salaries by Country – There are many reasons for why salaries vary between countries: economic development, cost of living, labor laws, and a variety of other factors. Because of these variables, it can be difficult to gauge the general level of income around the world. With this in mind, we’ve visualized the average annual salaries of 30 OECD countries, adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP). This means that the values listed have taken into account the differences in cost of living and inflation between countries. This data was sourced from the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), an international organization that promotes policies to improve economic and social well-being. It has 38 member countries, though in this instance, data for all of them was not available.”, OECD & Visual Capitalist, July 17, 2024

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“The world population is projected to peak slightly earlier than in previous projections – The United Nations doesn’t only publish historical estimates of how population and demographic trends have changed in the past; it also makes projections for what the future might look like. To be clear, these are projections, not predictions of changes in the future. In its 2022 publication, the UN estimated that, in its medium scenario, the global population would peak in 2086 at around 10.4 billion people. This year’s edition brings this peak forward slightly to 2084, with the population topping at just under 10.3 billion.”. Our World In Data, July 11, 2024

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues

“Inflation Across U.S. Fast Food Chains (2014-2024) – Fast food joints were once the go-to option for quick, cost-friendly meals, but now, they’re starting to pinch the budget.

Inflation has hit fast food chains hard in the past decade, with many restaurants seeing an average price increase on menu items of more than 50%. This graphic visualizes the average price increase of 10 core menu items from select American fast food chains, as well as the change in the consumer price index (U.S. city average) for food away from home, from 2014 to 2024.”, FianceBuzz and the Federal Reserve, July 12, 2024

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“Maersk says Red Sea shipping disruption having global effects – DENMARK’S AP Moller-Maersk said on Wednesday (Jul 17) that disruption to its container shipping via the Red Sea had extended beyond trade routes in the far east of Europe to its entire global network. Shipping groups have diverted vessels around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope since December to avoid attacks by Iran-aligned Houthi militants in the Red Sea, with the longer voyage times pushing freight rates higher. “Ports across Asia, including Singapore, Australia, and Shanghai, are experiencing delays as ships reroute and schedules are disrupted, caused by ripple effects from the Red Sea,” it said in a statement.”, The Business Times, July 17, 2024

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“2024 Statistical Review of World Energy – What Powered the World in 2023 – Fossil fuels continue to power the world. While a lot of spotlight in the energy industry is on the clean energy transition to renewable sources, fossil fuels continue to reign supreme when it comes to the world’s production and consumption of energy. Global production and consumption of coal, oil, and natural gas all increased in 2023, and as a result fossil fuels made up 81% of global energy consumption as shown above.”, Visual Capitalist & Energy Institute, July 2024

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Global & Regional Travel & Living

“Staying Healthy at 35,000 Feet – With the summer travel season in full swing, board-certified infectious disease physician Carl Abraham, M.D., assistant professor at the College of Osteopathic Medicine’s Jonesboro location (NYITCOM-Arkansas), arms passengers with information to stay healthy at 35,000 feet. Abraham notes that some people may be surprised about the risk of germ spread on most airplanes. ‘Disinfecting touched objects, like seatbelts or trays, won’t hurt, although airlines are supposed to make sure areas are cleaned thoroughly between flights,’ he adds. But, the real hotspot might be the airplane lavatory.”, New York Tech news, July 2, 2024

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Book Review – New Section

“The Fast Future Blur: Discover Transformative Interconnections Shaping the Future – Fast Future Blur provides invaluable insights and strategic frameworks to navigate the complexity of our current period of rapid and radical transformation (‘Fast Future’ phase). Focused on the interconnected nature of the evolution underway, the book serves as an eye-opener for business leaders, providing guidance in understanding this dynamic and complex landscape. Fast Future Blur delves into 12 key areas of change, including platform businesses, regenerative innovation, artificial intelligence, the future of healthcare, the future of work, the future of mobility, blockchain, metaverse, virtual & augmented reality, leadership, agility, fintech, and the impact from 6 inter-connections. With compelling, powerful, and timely insights from the Fast Future Executive faculty ― a global consortium of experts and industry leaders, many of whom are associated with the World Economic Forum, top business and technology schools and leading global companies.”, Amazon, July 2024

Editor’s Note: I attended a session of The Fast Future Blur 2024 Summit on June 11^th at the Executive Next Practices event at the University of California, Irvine, Beall Center for Innovation. We had 19 speakers from the Fast Future Executive faculty who came in from around the world. Wow!

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Book Review – New Section

Editor’s Note: I attended a session of The Fast Future Blur 2024 Summit on June 11^th at the Executive Next Practices event at the University of California, Irvine, Beall Center for Innovation. We had 19 speakers from the Fast Future Executive faculty who came in from around the world. Wow!

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Country & Regional Updates

Canada

“Canada set to be fastest growing economy in G7 in 2025, IMF forecasts – Latest outlook puts this country ahead of United States and United Kingdom. The IMF predicts the global economy is headed toward a “soft landing,” but warns risks remain for the inflation outlook, especially in advanced economies. ‘The good news is that, as headline shocks receded, inflation came down without a recession’, wrote Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, economic counsellor and the director of research at the IMF, in a blog post accompanying the release. “The bad news is that energy and food price inflation are now almost back to pre-pandemic levels in many countries, while overall inflation is not.”, International Monetary Fund, July 2024

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China

“Microsoft Orders China Staff to Use iPhones for Work and Drop Android – Company will block corporate access from Android in China Microsoft has been tightening cybersecurity following attacks. Microsoft has been ramping up security worldwide after incurring repeat attacks from state-sponsored hackers. Microsoft Corp. told employees in China that starting in September they’ll only be able to use iPhones for work, effectively cutting off Android-powered devices from the workplace. The US company will soon require employees based there to use Apple Inc. devices to verify their identities when logging in, according to an internal memo reviewed by Bloomberg News.”, Bloomberg, July 8, 2024

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“Comparing the Economies of U.S. and China in 3 Key Metrics – Starting with GDP, we used 2024 estimates from the latest edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (April 2024). Based on these figures, the United States and China combine for a massive 43.2% share of the global economy. It’s also interesting to note that America’s share of global GDP has actually been increasing in recent years, from a low of 21.1% in 2011. This is partly due to its relatively strong recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The U.S. dominates when it comes to stock market valuation, accounting for 61% of the global total as of Feb. 29, 2024.”, Visual Capitalist & International Monetary Fund, June 3, 2024

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India

“India Sets Subdued Economic Growth Forecast as Risks Mount – Government projects growth of 6.5%-7% vs 8.2% last year Finance minister to give annual budget speech on Tuesday. India’s government set a fairly conservative economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year, concerned about mounting global risks. The economy will likely expand 6.5%-7% in the year through March 2025, the Ministry of Finance said its Economic Survey report released Monday. That compares with 8.2% in the past financial year and the central bank’s projection of 7.2% for the current year. Modi must also balance demands from his coalition allies to spend billions of dollars in their states, with pressure from credit rating companies to curb government debt.”, Bloomberg, July 22, 2024

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Japan

“More than 40% of Japanese companies have no plan to make use of AI – The survey, conducted for Reuters by Nikkei Research, pitched a range of questions to 506 companies over July 3-12 with roughly 250 firms responding, on condition of anonymity. About 24% of respondents said they have already introduced AI in their businesses and 35% are planning to do so, while the remaining 41% have no such plans, illustrating varying degrees of embracing the technological innovation in corporate Japan. Asked for objectives when adopting AI in a question allowing multiple answers, 60% of respondents said they were trying to cope with a shortage of workers, while 53% aimed to cut labour costs and 36% cited acceleration in research and development.”, Reuter, July 17, 2024

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Saudi Arabia

“Saudi Arabia takes first step towards relaxing alcohol laws – Saudi Arabia has opened an off-licence in the diplomatic quarter of its capital, Riyadh, which is the kingdom’s first commercial outlet for the sale of alcohol beverages since a ban on the public sale and consumption of alcohol was imposed in 1952. We expect further relaxation of alcohol laws, together with the implementation of other social reforms and initiatives, in the years ahead as the government pushes ahead with its transformative Vision 2030 development plan, which includes the creation of a tourism offering that boasts major hotels, resorts, entertainment venues, sporting locations and (currently alcohol-free) restaurants and bars.”, Economist Intelligence Unit, February 23, 2024

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“One crucial piece of advise for business in Saudi – Landing that lucrative contract or big deal in Saudi Arabia requires much more than an impressive pitch deck and competitive pricing. One of the most crucial pieces of advice for doing business in the Kingdom is this: take the time to deeply understand the culture and build strong relationships before ever pitching your products or services. Why is this so important? Saudi Arabian culture places an extremely high value on personal connections, trust, and commitment. Saudis want to work with those they know and have established a bond with. Attempting to jump straight into business negotiations without first investing in relationship building is a surefire way to be met with skepticism and difficulty gaining traction.”, Middle East Sunday Pages by Corina Goetz, July 21, 2024

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Southeast Asia

“Southeast Asia’s economies continue to sustain their growth momentum in the first quarter 2024. GDP grew in all economies, with growth in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore increasing during this period, while Thailand and Vietnam recorded slower growth. Southeast Asia’s economies continue to sustain their growth momentum in the first quarter 2024. GDP grew in all economies, with growth in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore increasing during this period, while Thailand and Vietnam recorded slower growth.”, McKinsey & Co., June, 2024

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Turkey

This country has seen its wealth growth explode since 2008. It’s not the U.S. – Individual wealth has been soaring since 2008 in places some might find surprising, such as Turkey. That’s according to UBS’s 2024 Global Wealth Report, released on Wednesday. The report shows that globally, people have been getting progressively wealthier, with dramatic rises in some places. This chart shows average wealth growth from 2022 to 2023 in local currencies. On this metric, Turkey has surged above the rest at more than 157% (in dollar terms, that growth is 63%).”, MarketWatch, July 10, 2024

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United States

“U.S. will fall behind in the AI race without natural gas, Williams Companies CEO says – ‘The only way we’re going to be able to keep up with the kind of power demand and the electrification that’s already afoot is natural gas,’ Williams Companies CEO Alan Armstrong said in an interview Thursday. ‘If we deny ourselves that we’re going to fall behind in the AI race.’ The tech sector’s expansion of data centers to support AI and the adoption of electric vehicles is projected to add 290 terawatt hours of electricity demand by the end of the decade in the U.S., according to a recent report by the energy consulting firm Rystad. This load growth is equivalent to the entire electricity demand of Turkey, the world’s 18th largest economy.”, CNBC, July 19, 2024

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“Small Businesses Still Struggling – Small business (SMB) owners continue to face economic headwinds, including rent delinquency and revenue loss and stress around high interest rates and spiking labor costs. That’s according to Alignable’s June Revenue & Rent Report. The report was based on 3,690 responses to a poll of randomly selected small business owners in June. It also drew information from past survey responses. 72% of SMBs are earning less now monthly than pre-Covid, a slight increase from May’s 71%, breaking a 2024 record. Post-pandemic businesses are also struggling with 72% earning less than last year. Cumulative inflation—35% of SMB owners cite this as their top worry, up from 33% in May. Rising labor costs—79% of SMB employers are paying more for labor, up nine percentage points from May. Cash crisis—38% of SMBs have one month or less of cash on hand.”, Franchising.com, July 18, 2024

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Brand & Franchising News

“Olive Garden parent Darden Restaurants is buying Chuy’s for $605M – It will be the second acquisition for Darden in as many years and brings Mexican cuisine to its portfolio for the first time. Chuy’s has 101 restaurants and specializes in Tex-Mex cuisine. Darden Restaurants, the parent of Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse and other casual-dining brands, is acquiring Chuy’s Tex-Mex for $605 million in cash, the company announced Wednesday. The 101-unit, Austin-based Chuy’s is known for its scratch-made Tex-Mex cuisine and the funky, eclectic atmosphere of its restaurants.”, Restaurant Business, July 17, 2024

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“China Isn’t Done Tormenting Nike or Starbucks – Global Brands Hit Local Competition. China has become a more challenging market for global consumer brands like Nike and Starbucks, and investors are beginning to rethink the value of their Chinese business, according to a new report from TD Cowen analysts. Chinese consumers still like global brands like Nike, Adidas, Skechers andLululemon, which each generate a midteen share of their sales from China. But investors are beginning to discount the cash flows that companies generate from China as domestic competition and geopolitical risks intensify, TD Cowen analyst John Kernan, who co-wrote the report, tells Barron’s. Shares of some of these companies have already taken a hit as China’s economic recovery has sputtered, making consumers reluctant to spend as the property market—a major store of household wealth—is still struggling.”, Barron’s, July 18, 2024

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“Aussie boxing franchise UBX to enter United Arab Emirates – Brisbane-based boxing franchise UBX has announced its eighth international expansion with 18 locations planned in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), adding to an existing 100-plus gyms globally and hot on the heels of its recent campaign launch “Boxing is for Everyone” with adidas.

The company has appointed Mohsan Bari as the master franchisor for UBX UAE with initial sites being sourced in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. ‘In recent years, the Middle East has become a hotspot for combat sports, and the UAE’s enthusiasm for boxing makes it the perfect next step for UBX as interest in the sport is followed by participation,’ says UBX co-founder and managing director Tim West.”, Business New Australia, July 17, 2024

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“Domino’s to shutter 100 stores – The board of Domino’s Pizza Enterprises (Australia) waited until after the market closed yesterday to announce store closures in two of its largest markets, Japan and France, which will almost entirely offset the net effect of planned store growth globally over the course of FY25.”, Business News Australia, July 18, 2024

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“Herbalife expects China to become its largest market – China is expected to double the size of Herbalife’s India market in about five years, which is currently its largest in terms of sales, Herbalife President Stephan Gratziani said in Shanghai. The United States-based nutrition product manufacturer is confident in the Chinese market given the growth potential in the country’s health and well-being sector. ‘In 5-7 years, China is expected to double the size of our India market, which is currently its largest market in terms of sales followed by the US and Mexico,’ Gratziani said in a recent interview. Currently, Herballife service providers operate about 3,200 community health-care and nutritional advisory clubs in China, and the number could grow significantly in the coming years given the potential, especially in lower tier cities.”, Shine, July 17, 2024. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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“McDonald s plans to have more than 10,000 restaurants in mainland China by 2028 with more than 60 percent of employees born after 1995 – McDonald’s entered the Chinese mainland market in 1990. In 2017, McDonald’s China became McDonald’s largest international franchise market in the world, and CITIC Consortium became the controlling shareholder. Before the “Golden Arches” era, McDonald’s focused more on market development in first- and second-tier cities. Now, about 50% of McDonald’s restaurants are located in third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities.”, Yicai, July 17, 2024

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“Piccolo Me parent plans 100 stores for Sol Bowl acquisition – Piccolo Me parent company FABE (Food and Beverage Enterprises) has added Sydney-based Sol Bowl to its portfolio of food brands. FABE has big goals for its newest addition: 100 stores, international expansion and co-branding with Piccolo Me. There are another five Sol Bowl sites planned for New South Wales and ACT before FABE takes the brand interstate. Sol Bowl founder Lilly Semaan launched the healthy-fast-food business as Soul Bowl in Parramatta in 2017. She has since refined the branding and added locations in Baulkham Hills and Rosehill.”, Inside Retail (Australia), July 17, 2024

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China and Global Supply Chain Update May 26, 2020

Posted on May 26th, 2020 in Asia Pacific | Comments Off

William (Bill) Edwards, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), has been doing business in China for 38 years, starting with living in China from late 1982 through mid 1985. He has been the Master Franchisee for a U.S. franchise in China. EGS opened an office in Beijing in 2014 and we are currently helping four U.S. brands enter the Mainland China market. Our U.S. Clients are all consumer-faced franchise brands.

The following are extracts from a variety of information sources and our network inside China. This is bipartisan and does not reflect a point of view.

“China may become one of many hubs as companies diversify manufacturing after coronavirus shock: The coronavirus is ‘a wake-up call for pretty much every company,’ said Gerry Mattios, expert vice president at Bain. ‘The number one item on the agenda is, “how do I build resilience in my supply chain?’ ‘China is still a very attractive total supply chain solution,’ said How Jit Lim, a managing director with consulting firm Alvarez & Marsal. ‘There are very few countries in the world where you can find almost everything you need to build something.’” CNBC, May 25, 2020

https://bit.ly/Chinamanyhubs

“Coronavirus won’t kill globalisation – but a shakeup is inevitable: Globalisation relies on complex links – global value chains (GVCs) – that connect producers across multiple countries. These producers often use highly specialised intermediate goods, or “inputs”, produced by only one distant, overseas supplier. COVID-19 has severely disrupted these links…..But GVCs follow the principle of efficiency. They are the result of businesses sourcing the best possible inputs to meet their production needs at the lowest cost – wherever those inputs come from. This is good news for globalisation’s survival. While efficiency remains the main target, businesses will continue to shop globally.”, The Conversation, May 23,2020

https://bit.ly/ConversationGVCs

“European Luxury Is More Chinese Than Ever: Designer labels will need to contemplate a wave of European store closures as they become more dependent on China for sales. Chinese luxury consumers, who are almost two decades younger and less indebted than their Western counterparts, can afford to spend a larger chunk of their disposable income on designer baubles. Already there are signs of what stock analysts are calling “revenge spending” as lockdowns lift in Chinese cities and shoppers head to the mall. Consulting firm Bain estimates that by 2025, up to 49% of global luxury sales will be made to Chinese shoppers, an increase from the consulting firm’s earlier forecast of 46%.”, Wall Street Journal, May 22, 2020

https://bit.ly/EuropeanLuxuryChina

“Business travel showing signs of life in China: While the Chinese hotel industry saw a significant performance increase during the Labour Day holiday to start May, some urban markets saw continued demand after the holiday, fueled by a modest return for business travel. Business transient was also strong enough to maintain performance levels following the holiday in Shanghai, with occupancies hovering in the 30% range. While better than performance seen so far in 2020, it still lags well behind what was seen in previous years. ‘For perspective, midweek this time of year in a normal year (occupancy) is about 90%,’ said Jesper Palmqvist, area director for the Asia/Pacific region for STR.”, Hotel News Now, May 20, 2020

https://bit.ly/3cWVpZL

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