Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 121, Tuesday, November 12 , 2024
The World’s Elections Have Consequences
This edition is primarily focused to the projected impact on doing business around the world post USA national election last week. The new USA administration that will take office on January 20th has said that it will take a different economic, political, diplomatic and business approach here at home and in other countries than the current administration that has been in office and in charge of economic and foreign policy for the past almost 4 years. In this edition we look at what numerous reports say will be the business policies that those of us who do business in other countries will need to factor into our plans in order to be successful going forward.
On other matters, Starbucks® is putting into place an innovate supply chain strategy. McKinsey looks at how countries compare in productivity. Consumer anger over high prices piles pressure on politicians. The top 10 countries by value of all their natural resources. The global economy is returning to normalcy (??). Wynn is bulding a casino in the United Arab Emirates!! And the surprise rich country with the worst mobile-phone service!
This Edition’s Book Review: Adam Smith’s “The Wealth of Nations”, written 250 years ago, is still hugely relevant in global business today. Smith’s concept of the “invisible hand” explains how, when people act in their self-interest, markets naturally move toward efficiency, creating a win-win for society. It’s the foundation of how free-market economies work – basically, capitalism as we know it today.
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Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with any questions, comments and we welcome contributions.
The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.
Editor’s Note: You will see small ads in each edition for carefully vetted companies that serve international businesses. These small, focused, vetted ads are in place of charging subscriptions to our readers. Please click on the ads or use the QR code to see what each of our carefully chosen advertisers can do to make doing global business easier.
Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/ +1 949 375 1896
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“I’ve learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel.” – Maya Angelou
“Everything is going to be fine in the end. If it’s not fine, it’s not the end.”, Attributed to Oscar Wilde
“When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth”, Sherlock Holmes+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Highlights in issue #121:
- Brand Global News Section: Jolibee®, Starbucks®, Wendys® and Wingstop®
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B2B Payments Platform For Global Businesses
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Special Section: Elections Have Consequences
As my readers here in the USA and in other countries are aware, there was an election here in the USA last week. The surprise result will significantly impact the way we do business going forward not just in the USA but around the world. I have spoken to the Global Chamber and will give a webinar on the impact of the USA election on global business. What follows is a projection based on numerous articles and reports. This is NOT a political summary.
What happens in the USA has an impact in Asia, Latin America, Europe and the Middle East. The change in government direction here at home will make it easier to do business in some countries and more difficult in others. It is expected that the new USA administration will impose tariffs on products and services coming into the USA as soon as January. Other countries can be expected to add tariffs to what they export to the USA. This will hurt USA exports as it will cost more to buy them in other countries.
Overall, there have been major national elections in 71 countries in 2024 covering 50% of the world’s population and over 50% of the world’s Gross Domestic Product. Businesses across the world are now trying to figure out what the new political and economic environment will be in 2025 as a result of all these elections. Political stability may change substantially in countries the new USA administration target for tariffs and sanctions. Other examples of business changes that can and will come from national elections are taxes going up or down, more or less regulations, changes in currency export policy, tariffs in both directions and labor costs to name but a few. The ‘Financial Times’ reports that most ruling parties in countries around the world lost a share of control as a result of votes in their countries this year.
Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency is set to disrupt trans-Atlantic relations, likely escalating trade tensions, weakening already limited cooperation on climate and tech policy, and straining EU unity on defense and support for Ukraine. The key is to figure out what impact on doing business in European Union countries if the Ukraine war is solved or of it expands due to the new USA President’s foreign policy after January 20thwhen he takes over.
For example, it is expected on January 20th when the new USA administration takes over among the first executive orders will be the reimposition of oil sanctions on Iran that could result in their daily production dropping from 4 million barrels a day to 2 million barrels or less a day. This will have an impact on the worldwide price of oil and will cost China about 40% more to pay for their oil imports as they have been getting very cheap oil from Iran the past two years.
With the U.S. increasing tariffs on imports, particularly from countries like China, businesses may face rising costs on goods and raw materials. This could prompt companies to rethink their supply chains and even relocate production closer to their primary markets to avoid steep tariffs and trade barriers.
As the U.S. enacts new tech, data privacy, and energy policies, other nations are likely to follow suit with similar but distinct regulations. This means foreign companies will need to navigate a patchwork of rules, especially in industries like telecommunications, software, and cloud services, where data privacy and localization are crucial. Managing compliance across different countries may become more challenging and costly as each region enforces its own version of these standards.
The U.S. trade policies could also encourage allies to strengthen or create new regional trade agreements, such as within the EU or ASEAN. For foreign companies, this will mean continuing to shift their supply chains toward countries with more stable trade relationships, gradually moving operations away from traditional manufacturing hubs (China). The added uncertainty from tariffs, regulatory shifts, and currency fluctuations may further disrupt financial stability for businesses, potentially requiring them to hedge their bets by diversifying investments and managing risk more proactively.
Furthermore, as immigration restrictions tighten, global talent mobility may become limited. Foreign companies that depend on specialized talent across borders might turn to remote work or emphasize developing local talent pools, impacting operational efficiency.
We believe that the global business landscape will likely experience increased volatility and complexity in the coming years. Companies that can adapt by revising strategies, maintaining flexible supply chains, and keeping compliance agile will be best positioned to navigate the challenges and opportunities ahead. Time to update that Going Global’ strategic business plan!
Here are a number of articles from information sources both here in the USA and in other countries.
The Impact of the U.S. Elections on Trade and International Supply Chains
The likely winners and losers in Trump presidency
Trump re-election entrenches global instability
Wall Street girds for Trump 2.0: Tariffs, tax cuts and volatility
So, what does a Trump presidency mean for markets?
China Nears Record $1 Trillion Trade Surplus as Trump Returns
Here’s what’s at stake in the Middle East under Trump’s second term
Trump’s Return Looks to Upend US Foreign Policy Once Again
Welcome to Trump’s world – His sweeping victory will shake up everything
What Trump’s Win Means for the Economy
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“Economically complex, highly productive – Countries with higher economic complexity scores—a calculation based on the diversity and complexity of a country’s exports—tend to have greater labor productivity. This may suggest a potential link between a nation’s economic structure and its overall productivity levels, McKinsey global managing partner Bob Sternfels and senior partner Tracy Francis and coauthors explain. Higher-income G-20 countries shifted from agrarian to industrial and service-based economies, resulting in higher economic complexity scores. Conversely, many middle-income economies tend to have relatively low economic complexity due to their reliance on commodities.”, McKinsey & Co., November 7, 2024
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“The Global Economy’s Return to Normalcy – Economists are now focused on implementing the next phase of recovery. International Monetary Fund data shows the global economy has stabilized since the pandemic shock four and a half years ago. Inflation has largely eased, though rates remain higher in developing and emerging markets than in advanced economies. Global gross domestic product held steady, bolstered by economic growth in the U.S. and Asia, while projections for commodity-dependent economies in the Middle East, Central Asia and sub-Saharan Africa have been revised downward. Economists are now focused on implementing the next phase of recovery, which demands tighter fiscal policies and structural reforms to boost productivity and sustain growth. They also urged governments to address demographic challenges affecting labor forces. Each of these steps risks fueling renewed political and social pressures.”, Geopolitical Futures, November 8, 2024
Editor’s Note: This analysis is dated three days after the USA election but does not mention the election impact.
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“The World’s Largest Unconnected Populations – The internet has become essential for humanity, with most of the population spending hours online each day. Yet, over 2.5 billion people worldwide still lack internet access. This graphic illustrates the countries with the largest unconnected populations in absolute terms, according to We Are Social as of January 2024. Asia and Africa Have the Largest Unconnected Populations. All 10 countries on the list are located in Africa or Asia. India has the largest unconnected population, with over 684 million individuals offline, representing 47.6% of its population. China has the second-largest unconnected population, at 336 million, though its percentage of offline individuals is relatively lower, at 23.6%.”, Visual Capitalist, Social Canada and World Economic Forum, November 8, 2024
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Simple, secure currency transfers
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“Consumer anger over high prices piles pressure on politicians – Post-Covid inflation rise leaves toxic legacy for governments across rich economies. Discontent over the economy was a key motivator for Republican voters in last week’s US election, exit polling suggested — contributing to vice-president Kamala Harris’s defeat at the hands of Donald Trump. Incumbents in countries including the UK and Japan have also suffered in elections this year, partly because of anger at high living costs. Polling suggests the legacy of inflation will also play a role in national elections next year, including in Germany and Canada.”, The Financial Times, November 10, 2024
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“Top 10 Countries by Value of All Their Natural Resources – Natural resources are the backbone of modern manufacturing, necessary to produce everything around us. According to 2021 data from Statista, 10 countries dominate the global natural resource landscape, each holding vast reserves critical for various industries. Russia leads the pack with natural resources valued at $75 trillion, largely consisting of coal, natural gas, oil, and rare earth metals. At the end of 2018, Russia’s Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment valued the country’s mineral reserves at approximately $1.44 trillion. In terms of global share, Russia is unmatched in natural gas, holding the world’s largest proven reserves at 1.32 quadrillion cubic feet as of 2020—nearly 20% of the global total. Russia also ranks as a gold powerhouse.”, Visual Capitalist and Statista, November 7, 2024
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“Forecast of the global middle class population from 2015 to 2030, by region – By 2030, the middle-class population in Asia-Pacific is expected to increase from 1.38 billion people in 2015 to 3.49 billion people. In comparison, the middle-class population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase from 114 million in 2015 to 212 million in 2030. China accounted for over half of the global population for middle-class wealth in 2017. The United States had the highest number of individuals belonging to the top one percent of wealth holders.”, Statista and the Brookings Institute, November 2024
Editor’s Note: This confirms what we have seen in the literature over the past few years for the Asia Pacific region. For example. as of 2024, Indonesia’s middle class comprises approximately 47.85 million individuals, accounting for about 17.1% of the population. (Channel News Asia) The Indonesian government has set an ambitious target to elevate the middle-class population to 80% by 2045, coinciding with the nation’s centennial. (Jakarta Globe).
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Book Review
Adam Smith’s “The Wealth of Nations”, written 250 years ago, is still hugely relevant in global business today. Smith’s concept of the “invisible hand” explains how, when people act in their self-interest, markets naturally move toward efficiency, creating a win-win for society. It’s the foundation of how free-market economies work – basically, capitalism as we know it today.
Smith’s emphasis on the division of labor, where everyone does what they’re best at, set the stage for modern business structure and supply chains. Think about how today’s companies operate: specialized tasks lead to more productivity and competitive edge, just as Smith predicted.
Smith also argued against the old idea that nations get rich by hoarding gold and controlling colonies. Instead, he said wealth comes from productivity, not stockpiling resources. This thinking led to today’s liberal trade policies, encouraging open markets and fewer barriers. So, when companies source globally and countries trade based on their unique strengths, they’re following Smith’s playbook.
While he was all about free markets, he knew that governments need to provide public goods, enforce laws, and keep things fair. Today’s mixed economies still use that balance, allowing free markets to grow while governments step in when needed for the public good.
Overall, The Wealth of Nations is still the backbone of modern economic thought, guiding how businesses and nations operate in a connected world.introduced principles that continue to influence economics and public policy today.
This book is a unique way to understand globalization’s impact on everyday goods, showing how something as simple as a T-shirt reflects the vast, interconnected web of today’s economy.
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Keith Gerson and Bill Edwards Join Forces To Offer Trusted Suppliers To The Franchise Community
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Country & Regional Updates
Canada
“Port of Montreal Employers Move to Lock Out Dockworkers After Final Offer Rejected – The dispute exacerbates the disruption to trade in Canada as a lockout at ports along the West Coast continues. The movement of cargo through Canada’s second-largest seaport halted late Sunday after dockworkers at the Port of Montreal rejected a revised pay offer from employers, heightening stresses on trade as talks aimed at reopening ports on the country’s West Coast faltered.”, The Wall Street Journal, November 10, 2024
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China
“Din Tai Fung, a Taiwan-based restaurant chain, will close several of its mainland China stores as customers lose appetite for pricier meals – The chain’s announcement it would close all its shops in northern China – no alternate Beijing locations for the Yin family – marks the end of a 20-year engagement between the wildly popular restaurant and a consumer base once flush with discretionary income and hungry for new places to spend it. Data from Chinese food and beverage platform Hongcan 18 showed 1.36 million restaurants severed their licences in 2023, more than double the 519,000 closures reported in 2022.”, South China Morning Post, September 4, 2024
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“China sharpens edge in global trade with zero-tariff deal for developing world – China will eliminate tariffs for goods from countries classified as the world’s least developed starting in December, a move expected to lower shipping costs from parts of Africa and Asia and give Beijing more sway in global trade. The zero-tariff treatment for the group of mostly small, non-industrialised countries poses little threat to China’s manufacturing-intensive economy, analysts said, and gives Beijing an edge in emerging markets as the US and Europe attempt to stem the flow of Chinese goods into their own backyards. The scheme will cover all countries the United Nations considers “least developed” that have diplomatic ties to China….”, South China Morning Post, October 30, 2024
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Europe & European Union Countries
“Can Europe’s unity survive as its sense of crisis grows? – The EU needs investment to boost growth and competitiveness, but the debate over who pays has echoes of the financial crisis. The sense of crisis grew on Wednesday after Trump was re-elected US president. Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe his pledges to impose tariffs on US imports from Europe and demand that the continent spend more on its own defence will further curtail economic growth in the EU. Trump has also pledged to roll back swaths of environmental legislation, which EU officials fear will leave European businesses at a further competitive disadvantage. ‘You cannot pay for competitiveness. You have to create the conditions for it,’ says a senior EU diplomat present in Budapest. ‘[And] where is this new money supposed to come from? Borrow against future generations? Or expect other member states to pay for you?’”, The Financial Times, November 7, 2024
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United Arab Emirates
“Inside Wynn Resorts’ $3.9 Billion Gamble On The UAE – With its first casino resort set to open in 2027, a little-known emirate is suddenly an unlikely hot gaming market. Here’s how the U.S. casino giant made a high-stakes bet on its future—and left Abu Dhabi, Dubai and other casino operators in the dust. Wynn Resorts CEOCraig Billings raised eyebrows a year ago when he told investors that the United Arab Emirates was the “the most exciting new market opening in decades.” Outside of Egypt and Lebanon, casinos are practically nonexistent in the Middle East, since majority Muslim countries typically ban gambling. Even more intriguing: At the time Billings was enthusing about the UAE’s gaming future, the kingdom had exactly zero casinos.”, Forbes, November 10, 2024
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United Kingdom
“The rich country with the worst mobile-phone service – 5G networks are fast. Their roll-out is not. Britian has long been a pioneer in telecoms. In 1837 it built the world’s first commercial telegraph; the first transatlantic call was placed from London in 1927; in 1992 a British programmer sent the world’s first text message to a mobile phone. Today it lags rather than leads. A new “core network” using stand-alone technology will need to be installed to get the full benefits of 5G. Last year just 2,000 of the country’s 81,000 mobile base stations were broadcasting stand-alone 5G. In laboratory environments the next generation of mobile networks has reportedly notched up speeds 100 times faster than 5G. Britain is anything but that.”, The Economist, November 11, 2024
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United States
“2024 Election Analysis – After an unprecedented campaign cycle that cost nearly $16 billion, 158 million Americans went to the polls to elect our next set of leaders up and down the ballot. While it may take time to sort out the remaining House and Senate races that will determine the full balance of power in Congress, one thing is certain, President-elect Donald Trump and the new 119th Congress will be met in January with an enormous inbox of global threats and challenges, with escalating threats from foreign rivals, wars raging in Ukraine and the Middle East, and cascading humanitarian crises.
USGLC organized over 1,000 local leaders across the nation – business leaders, veterans, mayors, farmers, community and faith-based leaders to engage hundreds of candidates running for the House and Senate. Some candidates were already well-versed on foreign policy – from their own military service, missionary work, or international business experience – but for many, this was one of their few, if not their only, in-depth discussion about foreign policy and how global diplomacy and development impacts our communities here at home.”, U.S. Global Leadership Coalition (USGLC), November 9, 2024Editor’s Note: This is a very detailed analysis of the USA election with several key ‘election takeaways’.
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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades
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Brand & Franchising News
“Starbucks ramps up supply chain investments for climate resilience – Starbucks, which sources 3% of the world’s coffee, is ramping up investments in its supply chain as experts expect hotter temperatures and changing climates to dramatically transform production and shrink the amount of land suitable for growing in half by 2050. The company is buying two innovation farms in Central America to advance research to protect its coffee supply. The coffee giant said it plans additional farm investments in Africa and Asia as it looks to build an innovation network across the world’s largest growing regions. New innovation farms in Asia and other areas of the world will enable new research tailored to specific geographies and allow Starbucks to scale solutions across the “Coffee Belt” growing regions.”, Supply Chain Dive, October 31, 2024
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“Wingstop unit growth spikes with strong performance – With same-store sales at the chicken-wing chain up nearly 21% in third quarter, almost all from traffic, it’s no surprise franchisees want to open more restaurants. Wingstop on Wednesday reported yet another outstanding performance in the third quarter with domestic same-store sales up nearly 21%. The 20.9% increase, which was almost entirely driven by transactions yet again, wasn’t quite the comparable sales of 28.7% in the second quarter this year, which disappointed Wall Street watchers who were expecting even better sales, sending the stock price tumbling immediately after the report. Still, the chain’s two-year comparable sales topped 36%, and the company still expects to reach 20% same-store sales growth for the year, which far surpasses most public restaurant companies. The shops in the United Kingdom are averaging annual per shop sales of US$3,000,000.”, Restaurant Business Online, October 30, 2024
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“Wendy’s Bets on Palantir AI to Keep Up With $1 Frosty Demand – Program could eventually place orders without human help. Supply chain executive: This will ‘change the way we work’. AI is making inroads in a restaurant industry grappling with increased costs for labor and ingredients after years of high inflation. That’s pushed a sector already operating on tight margins to look even closer at managing expenses. Wendy’s supply chain co-op, an independent group that purchases on behalf of the chain’s restaurants, is betting Palantir’s system will do just that for the burger brand’s 6,000 US locations. Normally, stores keep extra inventory just in case, and that’s become more expensive thanks to inflation.”, Bloomberg, November 7, 2024
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“Jollibee parent fully acquires Hong Kong’s Michelin-rated Tim Ho Wan dim sum chain – Jollibee Food Corporation buys remaining 8 per cent stake in company for S$20.2 million. Jollibee Food Corporation, which runs fast-food chains across Asia, owned 92 per cent of the dim sum company in January, and the latest deal gives it full ownership. Tim Ho Wan runs about 80 stores in 11 markets including Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, Melbourne, Tokyo, Macau, South Korea and Manila. The deal comes at a time when Hong Kong’s food and beverage industry faces an uphill battle to retain customers, with many residents crossing the border to mainland China for leisure. Consumption has also slowed on the mainland, with Beijing rolling out a raft of stimulus measures in a bid to electrify the economy.”, South China Morning Post, November 6, 2024
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.
| To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ |
Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking
For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 120, Tuesday, October 29 , 2024
The Speed at Which New Technologies Go Mainstream
This 120th edition is one of our longest covering lots of comparisons across the world with NO politics!!! Take a look at these sections especially the speed with which technologies go mainstream (guess which has been the fastest!), record number of ships and containers entering the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, several articles about how A.I. is being used in different types of companies, mall owners and managers are seeing traffic come back despite e-commerce, where countries are on the innovation scale, where consumers around the world prefer local food, Singapore Changi airport goes passportless (?).
Do you know what a ‘Middle Power’ country is? A very timely book review: “The Travels of a T-Shirt in the Global Economy”, Lululemon has 38 stores in Australia (who knew!), guess who leads the world in labor productivity, Germany announces first car plant closing in decades, McDonalds® and Subway® announce huge increases in global stores coming, and the Franchise Association of New Zealand (FANZ) releases their 2024 country survey that shows this country is one of the most franchised in the world.
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Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with any questions, comments and we welcome contributions.
The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.
Editor’s Note: You will see small ads in each edition for carefully vetted companies that serve international businesses. These small, focused, vetted ads are in place of charging subscriptions to our readers. Please click on the ads or use the QR code to see what each of our carefully chosen advertisers can do to make doing global business easier.
Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/ +1 949 375 1896
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“All humans are entrepreneurs, not because they should start companies but because the will to create is encoded in human DNA.” – Reid Hoffman
“In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.” – Warren Buffett
“When everything seems to be going against you, remember that the airplane takes off against the wind, not with it.” – Henry Ford
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Highlights in issue #120:
- Brand Global News Section: 7-11®, Chick-fil-a®, Kenny Rogers Roasters®, McDonalds®, and Subway®
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B2B Payments Platform For Global Businesses
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“The Speed at Which New Technologies Go Mainstream – The invention of the internet, email, and mobile phones also followed a roughly 30-year cycle until mass adoption. Each technology required substantial investment and lead time to establish the necessary communications infrastructure, including cables, towers, and transmitters. However, the time between the invention of the first smartphone and the release of the first iPhone dropped to just 13 years. By 2010, smartphones began to overtake traditional mobile phones in the market. Now we turn to generative AI. Although the concept dates back to the 1960s, recent developments in generative adversarial networks (GANs) and transformers have propelled machine learning to an advanced scale. After the release of ChatGPT and Gemini, the mainstream adoption of AI for everyday tasks is now underway especially as big tech companies integrate it into their products. In fact, Bank of America researchers estimate that “AI-driven efficiencies” will be seen across sectors as early as 2025.’, Visual Capitalist and Bank of America, October 14, 2024
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“The world’s most innovative country – A ranking of 133 countries shows that the global innovation boom is stalling. The index adopts a broad definition of innovation. It includes “outputs”, such as patents, scientific publications and high-tech exports, as well as “inputs”, such as spending on research and development (r&d), the number of engineering graduates, and venture-capital deals. The index takes into account a country’s adoption and use of technology, as well as its production of it. Countries that import a lot of high-tech products and spend liberally on intellectual property from abroad score better on the index. Some of the indicators are unconventional, including the number of feature films a country makes and the amount of changes it makes to collaborative software projects on GitHub, a popular platform for sharing data and code.”, The Economist, October 3, 2024
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“Middle Powers, Polarity and the International System – Second-tier countries are arguably as influential as ever. The great power competition currently underway has created space for second-tier states, or middle powers, to emerge as strong as ever. Alarmed by the growing disruptions to the post-World War II order and what they see as the inability of greater powers to manage the international system, regional actors such as Turkey, Indonesia, Kazakhstan and Australia will begin to play larger geopolitical roles as the U.S. struggles to contain the likes of Russia, China and Iran.’, Geopolitical Futures, October 24, 2024
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“AI Implementation Roadmap: The Executive’s Guide to Avoiding Million-Dollar Mistakes – As a cybersecurity professional specializing in cybersecurity and AI, I’ve seen firsthand the importance of involving key stakeholders when implementing AI solutions. This guide highlights many essential steps to help ensure a smooth, secure, and compliant AI deployment in your organization. By following all these steps, you’ll be more prepared to deploy AI in your organization while addressing some essential security, legal, and operational concerns. Successful AI implementation is an ongoing process requiring continuous attention and adaptation. AI is here to stay; you want to be thoughtful sooner to avoid costly problems later.”, Foster Institute, August 23, 2024
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Simple, secure currency transfers
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“Gen AI in corporate functions: Looking beyond efficiency gains – In less than two years, generative artificial intelligence (gen AI) has become a mainstream tool with applications across almost every area of the economy. New McKinsey research shows that corporate and business functions—including finance, human resources, and customer care, among others—are ramping up their investment in gen AI technologies. A year ago, early adopters were experimenting with pilot projects based on “minimum viable product” gen AI tools. Now a significant minority have deployed gen AI use cases across their organizations. Comparing this year’s survey with its counterpart from 2023, we see a dramatic acceleration in the engagement with gen AI technologies. The proportion of organizations that are actively using (as opposed to just experimenting with) gen AI in their corporate functions has increased by a factor of five…….Furthermore, of the organizations with successful deployments, more than half are using gen AI daily, with less than 5 percent of respondents reporting intermittent usage of once a month or less.”, McKinsey & Co., October 23, 2024
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“The Business Ready (B-READY) project aims to build a comprehensive instrument panel that by 2026 will enable about 180 economies to dial in the precise settings needed for a vibrant private sector development—the combination of conditions that will reduce poverty, advance shared prosperity, and speed up the transition to a low-carbon economy. For too long, though, the focus has been too much on what governments can do for the good of business—and not enough on what businesses can do for the good of all. This report marks a crucial first step to correct that imbalance. It is designed expressly to discourage “a race to the bottom” or simplistic solutions that were the unintended by-product of Doing Business, our previous effort to help countries establish the right conditions for private sector development. Business Ready’s analytical framework recognizes that there is more to a healthy business environment than the “ease of doing business.”, World Bank, October 2024
Editor’s Note: For decades those of us who needed to compare countries across several parameters used the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business index. Then we found out that the data submitted by some countries was ‘overly optimistic’ to say the least. Now that analysis and comparison has been literally thrown out and a more controlled and unbiased set of data has replaced the literally crooked rankings. This analysis is available now for about 50 countries, mostly emerging markets. By 2026 it should be available for 180 countries and should become, once again, a go by standard for market researchers.
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“Global Economics Intelligence executive summary – The OECD sees the global economy improving. Central banks’ strategies are diverging, with some cutting rates and others raising them. China announces a major stimulus, and the US Federal Reserve cuts rates. Positive news is emerging from various sources, suggesting the global economy might be turning a corner, though substantial risks remain. Central banks face a challenging balancing act between managing inflation and promoting growth, which led to divergent actions this month. Several banks cut rates to boost the economy in September, while others tightened policy to tame inflation. Although headline inflation is approaching central banks’ targets, core inflation remains elevated.”, McKinsey & Co., October 21, 2024
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“Worldwide Consumers Prefer Buying Local Food – Latest research from YouGov reveals that, on average, three in five consumers worldwide say they prefer purchasing food from their own country (60%) and preference for buying local food is ≥10% higher among consumers concerned about climate change.”, Agtools.com, October 24, 2024. Compliments of Martha Montoya, CEO and Co-Founder of AgTools, Irvine , California
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“Cargo On-Time Rates Are Dismal. Two Shipowners Have a Plan to Fix That. In new alliance, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd aim to cut docking costs and improve on-time performance. Two of the world’s biggest shipping companies have a new plan to reduce cargo delivery delays. The answer, they say, is to use bigger ships and cut the number of port calls each ship makes. Shippers have been plagued by vessel diversions from the Red Sea and the Suez Canal since late last year after a series of attacks on commercial vessels by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. The longer routes around South Africa have added at least two weeks of sailing time and pushed freight rates higher.”, The Wall Street Journal, October 20, 2024
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“Busiest US Trade Hub Beat Pandemic Cargo Record in Third Quarter – LA, Long Beach each broke records set during the pandemic. The busiest container complex in the US surpassed a record set during the pandemic last quarter as businesses continue to bring goods in ahead of potential tariff increases and sought to avoid hurricane and labor disruptions at alternate ports. The LA and Long Beach ports — which together account for roughly a third of all US container imports — each had their busiest ever peak season this year. Cargo volumes flowing into and out of Southern California beat the record set in the second quarter of 2021, when demand for consumer goods and supply chain snarls caused a massive backlog of ships offshore and a pileup of containers on the docks.”, Bloomberg, October 18, 2024
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“Shift to electric vehicles will have far-reaching impact, IMF says – The global transition toward electric vehicles will have “far-reaching” impacts on investment, production, international trade and employment, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday as part of its update to global economic growth forecasts. The analysis was included in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, which was released as policymakers meet at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings this week to discuss efforts to boost global growth, deal with debt distress and finance the green energy transition. “The rising adoption of electric vehicles represents a fundamental transformation of the global automotive industry. It will have far-reaching consequences,” the IMF said. “In these scenarios, employment declines in the automotive sector, and labor reallocates gradually to less capital-intensive sectors (with lower value added per worker),” the IMF said.”, Reuters, October 22, 2024
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Global & Regional Travel
“Singapore airport goes fully passport-free with biometric clearance – A passport is no longer needed for clearance at Changi Airport, where biometric clearance has been fully implemented across all four terminals, leading to an average passport-less clearance time of 10 seconds. A release from the Immigration and Checkpoints Authority (ICA) says ‘arriving and departing Singapore residents can clear immigration by simply using facial and iris biometrics, without the need to present their passport. All foreign visitors can also enjoy the convenience of passport-less clearance when they depart Singapore.’”, Biometric Update, October 24, 2024
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“AI Agents and the New Era of Hospitality – AI is no longer just a buzzword in hospitality – it’s a disruptive force transforming how properties are managed and guest experiences are delivered. The adoption of AI is not a question of “if” but “when.” The stakes couldn’t be higher for the hospitality industry, which represents a staggering US$4.1 trillion global market. According to World Metrics, 77% of hoteliers believe that AI helps them better understand guest preferences and deliver more personalized experiences, demonstrating just how critical AI has become to stay competitive. Jurny estimates AI will save $112 billion annually in the Airbnb sector alone, further underscoring its transformative economic impact. In the Airbnb industry alone, the shift will be massive, with a 10x boost in productivity, giving birth to a whole new kind of host.”, Jurny, LinkedIn post, Octoberf 22nd, 2024
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Book Review
The Travels of a T-Shirt in the Global Economy by Pietra Rivoli breaks down how a simple T-shirt connects various parts of the world through trade, politics, labor, and economics. Rivoli follows a T-shirt from a Texas cotton field through manufacturing in China, then distribution worldwide. This journey highlights how each step in a product’s lifecycle relies on different economies, regulatory environments, and local business practices. It’s a perfect illustration of the interconnectedness of today’s global trade.
U.S. cotton subsidies and trade restrictions play a huge role in shaping competitive advantages, showing how powerful policies like tariffs impact not only American businesses but also the global market. Rivoli’s analysis of these policies underscores how much governments influence international commerce, from protecting local industries to opening markets. The book dives into labor issues, particularly the conditions in low-wage textile factories. Rivoli sheds light on the ethical dilemmas that come with globalized manufacturing, addressing questions of worker rights, fair wages, and consumer responsibility. Throughout the book, Rivoli demonstrates how regions adapt to shifting economic demands. For example, as industries relocate or production needs change, communities find ways to remain resilient, emphasizing the human side of economic shifts.
This book is a unique way to understand globalization’s impact on everyday goods, showing how something as simple as a T-shirt reflects the vast, interconnected web of today’s economy.
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Keith Gerson and Bill Edwards Join Forces To Offer Trusted Suppliers To The Franchise Community
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Country & Regional Updates
Australia
“Lululemon opens its largest Australian flagship store yet – Lululemon has opened its largest Australian store yet at Emporium Melbourne. The 11,000sqft store is almost triple the size of its previous shop at Emporium and has a significantly larger menswear section. The new store is Lululemon’s ninth Australian project for the year. Earlier, the company opened stores in Chadstone, Geelong and Sorrento. Currently, Lululemon has 38 stores in Australia, with 12 in Victoria.”, Inside Retail Australia, October 22, 2024
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China
“China total profits by enterprise type, annual – A dismal industrial profits and earnings release for September, with profits down 27.1% from a year earlier, following a 17.8% fall in August, while earnings fell 3.5% in the first nine months of the year compared to a 0.5% rise in the January-August period. The decline in profits is the worst seen since the pandemic downturn. SOEs (State Owned Enterprises) were the main drag by enterprise type, with total profits declining 6.5% y/y on a YTD basis. Shareholding enterprises saw a 4.9% y/y YTD decline, while privately-held firms declined 0.6%. Foreign-invested firm profits rose 1.5%, highlighting the underperformance of the mainland economy.”, APAC Daily Chart Book, October 27, 2024
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“China’s GDP growth forecasts edge up as foreign banks respond to stimulus moves – Some international financial institutions have raised their forecasts for China’s economic growth in 2024 in the wake of the raft of stimulus rolled out since late September, tipping Beijing to reach its target of “around 5 per cent”. Forecasts for gross domestic product growth in 2024 – a year addled by tepid retail sales and cool property prices – from the likes of UBS, Moody’s Analytics, Goldman Sachs and Nomura have reached as high as 4.95 per cent. Swiss investment bank UBS on Monday raised its forecast for the world’s second-largest economy from 4.6 per cent to 4.8 per cent “in light of the stronger-than-expected third quarter GDP growth reading and recently announced policy push”, said the research note from its China economist Wang Tao.”, The South China Post, October 21, 2024
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Europe & European Union Countries
Bricks over clicks as shops come back into fashion in Europe – The rise of online shopping has led to swathes of store closures, casting doubt over the future of retail malls and high streets, but in Europe there are signs that shops are back in vogue and are important for helping to drive online sales. European retailers are investing in physical shops to stimulate both online and offline sales as they face increasing competition from giant e-commerce companies, such as fast-fashion group Shein. They also want to capitalise on people’s renewed appetite for visiting shops once COVID-19 lockdowns ended, which has made a Saturday afternoon shopping spree fashionable again. Retailers realise that it is difficult to keep customers without some direct contact with them, said Thomas Joekel, a portfolio manager at Union Investment, which holds shares in LVMVHand Adidas. ‘ This is easier to achieve if you have brick-and-mortar stores rather than just e-commerce,” he said. “On the e-commerce side you can only see pictures but you don’t feel, you don’t smell, you don’t talk to somebody so it’s much more difficult to be optimistic or enthusiastic about a brand,’ he said.”, Reuters, October 28, 2024
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“Steady spending in Europe – Despite a more positive outlook among European consumers, their spending habits remain largely unchanged from the previous quarter, with many continuing to implement savings strategies. Forty-three percent of respondents to a recent McKinsey survey said they had maintained the amount they spent compared with the previous three months, senior partner Jessica Moulton and colleagues note; this proportion is just 3 percentage points higher than at the end of the second quarter. As they had three months ago, a third of consumers indicated they were still carefully tracking expenses and dipping into savings to cover needs.’, McKinsey & Co., October 23, 2024
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Germany
“Volkswagen plans to close at least 3 German plants and cut thousands of jobs – Europe’s largest carmaker tells works council it would slash pay by 10%. The restructuring would mark the first closure of domestic plants in the company’s 87-year history and set up a battle with powerful unions and politicians in Germany, where VW has 300,000 employees. VW’s management has warned that radical measures are needed as Europe’s largest carmaker faces intense competition in China, slowing sales across other major markets and the need to navigate the costly transition to electric vehicles. Thorsten Gröger, chief negotiator at IG Metall, Europe’s largest union, warned that the cost-cutting would provoke ‘resistance of a kind it could never imagine’. Like German rivals Mercedes-Benz and BMW, VW faces falling profits in China as consumers cut spending and local brands such as BYD take market share.”, The Financial Times, October 28, 2024
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Indonesia
“Apple iPhone 16 Sales Banned in Indonesia Over Investment Issue – Other Apple products aren’t subject to the ban. Indonesia has blocked sales of the latest iPhone 16 handsets over what officials say is the company’s non-fulfillment of local investment requirements. Apple’s local unit, PT Apple Indonesia, “has not fulfilled its investment commitment” as required to be able to sell the new iPhone model in the Southeast Asian country, the Ministry of Industry said in a statement Friday. Under an Indonesian policy aimed at supporting domestic industries and reducing dependence on imported products, companies have to meet set requirements for using goods or services sourced from within the country. This can be done via various means, including investments or hiring local workers.”, The Wall Street Journal, October 28, 2024.
Editor’s Note: This policy fails also for international food and beverage brands who wish to import food products that are not available in Indonesia due to either a lack of local infrastructure or lack of required quality to meet the global standards of a foreign brand.
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Southeast Asia
“South-East Asia’s stodgy conglomerates are holding it back – The region’s ageing corporate empires are stuck in the past—and too cosy with politicians. Few parts of the global economy hold more obvious promise than South-East Asia. But when it comes to home-grown businesses, the picture in South-East Asia is murkier. The market value of investible stocks in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand is around $900bn. Those five economies have roughly the same gdp as India but less than half its investible market value (see chart 1). Seven American companies are each worth more than the entire South-East Asian market.Multinational firms hoping to move manufacturing away from China are racing to establish supply chains in the region. Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam are expected to be among the fastest-growing economies in the world during the rest of the decade. Malaysia is likely to join the ranks of the world’s high-income economies soon. Singapore’s importance as a financial hub has grown as foreigners have deserted Hong Kong. Among the top 50 firms in South-East Asia by revenue, only one—Sea, a Singaporean gaming and e-commerce firm—was founded in this century. State-owned enterprises account for 15 of the top 50. Subsidiaries of the region’s tentacular conglomerates account for 14.”, The Economist, October 24, 2024
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United States
“American productivity still leads the world – Innovation and a vibrant tech sector continue to give America a competitive edge. This year the average American worker will generate about $171,000 in economic output, compared with (on purchasing-parity terms) $120,000 in the euro area, $118,000 in Britain and $96,000 in Japan. That represents a 70% increase in labour productivity in America since 1990, well ahead of the increases elsewhere: 29% in Europe, 46% in Britain and 25% in Japan. American workers, simply put, have more tools at their disposal, both the physical kind such as highways and warehouses and the intangible sort in the form of software. With the exceptions of Israel and South Korea, America invests more in r&d than any other country, at roughly 3.5% of gdp. China is the one major power that has closed the gap on r&d spending, but it still trails America by a large absolute margin. The dynamism applies to America’s labour market, too. In any given three-month period about 5% of its workers change jobs. In Italy it takes one year to get the same level of labour turnover. A study in 2020 by the oecd found that among citizens in a large sample of Western countries, Americans were the most likely to move elsewhere for new jobs.”, The Economist, October 14, 2024
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“What Small Business Owners Think – We surveyed 1,200 of them. Here’s what they said. Entrepreneurwanted to know, so we partnered with Faire, an online wholesale marketplace where gift shops, pet stores, clothing boutiques, and other mom-and-pop shops source their products. Faire put five questions out to its retailers, and more than 1,200 responded—revealing their biggest concerns, wins, and what it really takes to keep a small business alive. “These owners are out there fighting every day, making things work, and having an incredible impact on their communities,” says Faire cofounder and CEO Max Rhodes. ‘They’re super resilient.’”, Entrepreneur, October 2024
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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades
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Brand & Franchising News
“Watami acquires Subway’s Japan operations in fast-food pivot – Company looks to move past izakaya pubs to find long-term growth. ‘We will make it a popular brand among young people,” he added, noting that the goal is to change from izakaya operator Watami to Subway operator Watami, said Watami Chairman and President Miki Watanabe at a press conference in Tokyo on Friday. Watami signed a master franchise agreement with Subway for a period of 10 years, giving it exclusive rights to operate the chain in Japan. It also acquired Subway Japan, which had been operating stores there. The operating rights for about 180 existing stores will be transferred to Watami, which will manage them and recruit new franchisees.”, Nikkei Asia, October 26, 2024. Compliments of Ichiro (Roy) Fujita, I, Fujita International, Los Angeles and Tokyo
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“Franchising New Zealand 2024 Survey Has Been Released – This just published survey of the franchise community in New Zealand had these findings: There are 546 business format franchisors in New Zealand in 2024. There is an estimated total of 29,750 units operating in business format franchises. More than 114,300 people are employed directly in business format franchises. Sales turnover for business format franchises was estimated at NZ$47.2 billion. Sales turnover for the entire franchising sector was estimated at NZ$73.4 billion. 72% of franchises are using or planning to implement AI technologies within their operations. 73% of franchise networks are New Zealand founded. Nearly 20% of NZ franchise networks have entered international markets. 90 percent of franchise brands return profits back into the community. Only 18.8 percent of franchisors were involved in a substantial dispute (with one or more franchisees) in the past twelve months.”, Massey University completed this survey sponsored by the Franchise Association of New Zealand, Westpac, Nexia New Zealand, Franchize Consultants, Stewart Germann Law Office, Laser Plumbing and Electrical, and Exceed, Iridium Partners, and Franchise New Zealand media.
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“McDonald’s largest global franchisee is working on a 20-year renewal agreement – Arcos Dorados expects to add 90 to 100 units in 2025. Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc., Latin America’s largest restaurant company and the world’s largest independent McDonald’s franchisee, said it will renew its master franchise agreement with the quick-service giant. Arcos Dorados received a renewal notice from McDonald’s Aug. 1 to replace the parties’ existing MFA with a new, 20-year MFA to be effective Jan. 1, 2025. For its part, Arcos Dorados operates nearly 2,400 restaurants throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. The franchisee became a publicly-traded company on the New York Stock Exchange in April 2011. Its current market capitalization is $1.8 billion, while its share price has grown steadily by about 60% in the past 10 years. On the news of a renewal agreement Tuesday morning, Arcos Dorados’ share price jumped 16%.”, Nation’s Restaurant News, October 1, 2024
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“Chick-fil-A to open first Singapore restaurant, enter Asia in 2025 – The chicken chain will invest $75 million over 10 years to support its expansion within Singapore, which will provide a gateway into the rest of the continent. Chick-fil-A will enter Asia in late 2025 with the opening of its first Singapore store, the company said Thursday in an announcement. Chick-fil-A also plans to open its first five stores in the United Kingdom over a two-year period as part of a $100 million investment. Chick-fil-A (Asia) Pte Ltd hosted a pop-up event in Singapore in June to introduce the brand and gain a better understanding of guest preferences. Over 1,000 people attended the three-day event, signaling early interest by Singaporeans. The company said that Singapore will serve as a gateway to the rest of the continent.”, Restaurant Dive, October 17, 2024
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“Subway China returns to the table – Strengthening the independent selectivity of Subway’s menu and launching various seasonal and localized products are new initiatives launched by Subway China after the change of new leadership. In June 2023, Subway’s global headquarters announced that it had signed a new master franchise agreement with Shanghai Furui Food Enterprise Development Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Furui Food”). Furui Food has obtained the exclusive rights to manage and develop all Subway stores in mainland China. Furui Food will open nearly 4,000 stores in mainland China in the next 20 years, expanding Subway’s market size in China by more than seven times. Over the past year, Subway China has made a comprehensive update from the location, layout, and style of new stores to the addition of breakfast and freshly ground coffee to the menu, the development of local flavors, and the visual presentation of the brand IP. As of June 2023, Subway had only opened more than 500 stores in China after more than 20 years of operation. As of October 2024, this number has risen to 750, indicating that in the past year or so, Subway China has achieved a significant expansion equivalent to half of the growth in the past 20 years. Last November, Subway opened its first Subway flagship store in Shanghai. This is the first flagship store opened by Subway in China in more than 20 years.”, eeo.com.cn, October 25, 2024 (in Mandarin). Article and translation compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
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“A surprise in Singapore: Kenny Rogers Roasters – Dispatch from Singapore: Defunct in the U.S., the rotisserie chicken chain remains alive and well in Asia, proving again just how difficult it is to kill a restaurant brand. One of the first lessons we learned since we started covering restaurants nearly two decades ago was just how hard it is to kill restaurant brands. Once a brand establishes itself, it has some value, even if the business model is flawed or the parent company struggles. It takes a lot to kill a restaurant chain. Kenny Rogers Roasters was created in the early 1990s, the latest in a weird string of country music personalities creating typically chicken- focused restaurant chains (anybody remember Minnie Pearl’s Chicken?). But the brand also faced controversies and challenges from the get-go. It was sued by a Miami-based brand, Cluckers Wood Roasted Chicken. And then Boston Market grew rapidly. The chain filed for bankruptcy by 1998. Rogers himself sought to cut ties with the brand that year. The chain was then sold to Nathan’s Famous in 1998 in a deal estimated to be worth $4 million. Nathan’s had a habit at the time of buying dying brands and later bought the rights to Arthur Treacher’s Fish & Chips. Kenny Rogers Roasters didn’t quite thrive under Nathan’s ownership and a decade later the brand was sold to a Malaysian company that owned the international master franchise rights, Berjaya Corp (which) operates a few western brands, among other things, including Starbucks, Krispy Kreme and Paris Baguette.”, Restaurant Business Online, October 21, 2024
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“Revolutionizing Franchising: How Croatia’s Micro Franchises Are Making Business Ownership Accessible – Franchise entrepreneurs in Croatia are creating micro franchise opportunities to broaden the feasibility of franchise ownership in Europe and beyond. “In many Eastern European countries, the franchise sector has lagged behind the West, and the best way to develop the sector is through low-investment or micro franchises,” explains Dr. Ljiljana Kukec, who leads the Croatian Franchise Association. Instead of investing $150,000 to $350,000 (the “sweet spot” for American franchise brands) micro-franchisees in Croatia are spending well under $50,000 to own a franchise. Just three years ago there were 19 indigenous franchise brands in Croatia; now there are 72! Countrywide there are some 250 franchise brands.”, Dr. John Hayes, Titus Center for Franchising, Palm Beach Atlantic University, LinkedIn, October 26, 2024
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“7-Eleven to open 500 food-focused stores by 2027 – The convenience-store giant’s new locations will feature more prepared food, including in-store restaurants like Laredo Taco Co. Convenience-store giant 7-Eleven plans to open 500 food-and-beverage-focused locations in the U.S. from 2025 to 2027, according to an investor presentation from parent company 7 & i Holdings on Thursday. The stores will feature a new format called New Standard that continues the chain’s shift toward larger, more high-tech stores with expanded food options, including in-store restaurants. It builds upon a previous prototype that incorporated Laredo Taco Co., the 600-unit quick-service Mexican brand 7-Eleven acquired when it bought most of the Stripes c-store chain in 2018. (It added the remaining locations in April.)”, Restaurant Business, October 25, 2024
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.
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For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 119, Tuesday, October 15, 2024
Global Economy Moves Beyond Inflation Crisis to Stable
Once again there are mixed signals about the global, regional and individual economies. McKinsey & Co., the World Bank, the Economist, the Financial Times, Bloomberg and many other publications are starting their year-end looks back and forward. Consumer and executive confidence seems up and down depending on the month, region, country and sector.
And then there are the 67 national elections being held in 2024. Almost all, but now quite all (!!!!!!!!), are finished. “Elections have consequences” for companies trying to plan how best to manage their businesses. European EV owners are eyeing going back to gas. China is trying a number of things to stimulate its slow economy. The United Kingdom’s economy is waiting for the first new government budget. And Shake Shack® is reinventing the restaurant labor model.
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Editor’s Note: You will see small ads in each edition for carefully vetted companies that serve international businesses. These small, focused, vetted ads are in place of charging subscriptions to our readers. Please click on the ads or use the QR code to see what each of our carefully chosen advertisers can do to make doing global business easier.
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Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with any questions, comments and we welcome contributions.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/
+1 949 375 1896
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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“Tactics without strategy is the noise before the defeat.”, Sun Tzu
“Wonder what your customer really wants? Ask. Don’t tell.”, Lisa Stone
“Get big quietly so you don’t tip off potential competitors.”, Chris Dixon
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Highlights in issue #119:
- Brand Global News Section: Foot Locker®, Shake Shack®, and TGI Fridays (UK)
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B2B Payments Platform For Global Businesses
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“Global Economy Moves Beyond Inflation Crisis to Stable Growth – OECD says central banks can continue to prudently cut rates. Significant risks remain to the outlook, organization says. The global economy is settling into a newfound stability as the stress of strong inflation eases, allowing central banks to keep cautiously loosening policy, according to the OECD. Economic growth has remained resilient in recent months, inflation has continued to moderate and indicators suggest ongoing momentum in services, the Paris-based organization said on Wednesday.”, Bloomberg, September 25, 2024
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“McKinsey & Co. Economic conditions outlook, September 2024 – For the first time since March 2020, surveyed executives primarily see the global economy as stable rather than improving. The latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions reveals more cautious sentiments from respondents on both current global conditions and domestic economies than seen in the previous two quarters—though a plurality of respondents expect each to improve in the next six months. While geopolitical instability continues to loom as the top perceived risk to global and domestic growth, in a year when almost half of the world’s population will vote in national elections, respondents now cite political transitions second-most often as a threat both globally and at home.”, McKinsey & Co., September 27, 2024
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Editor’s Note: We first brought up the fact that there will be national elections this year in 67 countries covering 49% of the world’s population and 52% of the world’s GDP in early 2024. “Elections Have Consequences”. This is particularly important for businesses trying to plan for growth. New governments – no matter what party or ideology – usually make changes in taxes and regulations that will impact both local businesses and foreign businesses considering entering new countries. In 2025, we will see the impact of 67 national elections in 2024 on our ability to grow the world’s GDP in 2025.
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Simple, secure currency transfers
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“How will climate change affect crop yields in the future? Maize yields could see significant declines, but wheat could increase. Impacts across the world will be very different. How much will climate change affect food production? Will it hurt or benefit crop yields? Can we feed 8, 9, or 10 billion people in a warmer world? The impact of climate change on yields will depend on several factors: the type of crop, how much warmer the world gets (which will depend on how quickly we reduce our carbon emissions), where in the world you are, and what we do to adapt.”, Our World In Data, October 13, 2024
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“Copper: Now and in the Future – Geopolitical challenges in copper mining are significant, particularly in Latin America and Africa. Copper is crucial to the global economy, and its importance is only going up. Historically, copper has been vital in construction, electrical networks and transportation. But now it is also in high demand as the world shifts toward green technologies and the electrification of transportation. Due to its high conductivity, durability and resistance to corrosion, copper is used in electric vehicles, solar panels and wind turbines. Major copper mining regions include Latin America, particularly Chile, which produces a quarter of the global supply.”, Geopolitical Futures, October 11, 2024
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“EV owners eyeing gas – Across Europe, 19 percent of electric vehicle owners are likely or very likely to switch back to a traditional combustion engine vehicle, according to a McKinsey Mobility Consumer Pulse Survey. Senior partner Andreas Venus and colleagues explain that the share of electric-vehicle owners who say they would consider switching back varies by country: 24 percent of owners in Germany would consider switching back, compared with 18 percent of owners in France and Norway and 15 percent in Italy. The global average is 29 percent.”, McKinsey, October 8, 2024
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Subscribers to our newsletter are invited to a webinar on best practices in global franchising with a focus on taking an international franchise into Spain successfully on Wednesday, October 30th at 9AM west coast USA time.
William Edwards (https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/) and Ned Lyerly (https://www.linkedin.com/in/nedlyerly/) will draw on their 8 decades of taking franchises into new countries successfully to share best practices – what works and what fails!
To sign up for this free webinar please go to this LinkedIn link to register:
https://www.linkedin.com/events/7246525895643987968/comments
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Book Review
Professionals cannot ask their most successful competitors and peers their secrets of rainmaking. That would be awkward, impractical, and sometimes illegal. But it pays to compare yourself to your successful peers.
So, the authors of Rainmaker Confidential did it for you in this 2022 book. Henry DeVries, Scott Love and Mark LeBlanc went behind closed doors and asked the tough questions. We asked more than one hundred successful rainmakers what they are investing more in, what they are cutting back on, and what are their go-to strategies. In other words, how are they investing their time, treasure, and talent. Think of us as your rainmaking R&D department. You’ve no doubt heard of using OPM (other people’s money) to grow your business. This book is about using OPE (other professionals’ experience) to grow your business.
This book is for those who serve in roles such as chief executive officer, general manager, principal, partner, or head of an office, business unit, or practice for professional service firms, especially in the fields of accounting, dental consulting, financial services, management consulting, marketing and advertising, executive search services, software development, technology services, and law firm management. Some define R&D as research and development; the authors define it as rob and duplicate. (!!!??)
The authors say they have done the research so you can ‘rob and duplicate’ the most successful rainmaking strategies from your professional peers. It’s okay, we did not use espionage to gain their secrets. The OPE rainmaking insider secrets were willingly shared.
Editor’s Note: Your editior has known and valued Henry DeVries and his common sense wisdom about rainmaking and publishing your own book for many years.
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Keith Gerson and Bill Edwards Join Forces To Offer Trusted Suppliers To The Franchise Community
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Country & Regional Updates
China
“Can joint ventures fix China’s trade imbalance with the EU and US? Chinese investment abroad is ‘only way’ to ease Beijing’s trade surplus, says leading researcher in wake of Brussels’ EV tariff vote. Trade tensions are growing, with China announcing on Tuesday that it will start collecting anti-dumping duties on European brandy. The announcement came just days after Brussels voted to impose tariffs on Chinese-made EVs after concluding that Beijing was unfairly subsidising EV exports to Europe.”, South China Morning Post, October 12, 2024
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“Who makes China’s stimulus decisions, and what’s the procedure? What has changed since China rolled out a 4-trillion-yuan (US$141 billion) stimulus package in 2008, and why a concrete stimulus figure now remains elusive. Compared with the 2008 stimulus package announced by China’s then premier, Wen Jiabao, China’s current economic power now largely rests with the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission headed by President Xi Jinping. The National Development and Reform Commission, which is a long-term planner and a coordinator on economic issues, will focus on expanding and front-loading government investment to boost the economy, as it is responsible for approving large infrastructure projects. And the source of funding will come from the Ministry of Finance (MOF), whose plans include debt relief for local governments, capital replenishment for major state-owned banks and fiscal support for the property market.”, The South China Morning Post, October 14, 2024
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Germany
“Germany’s choice – Should Europe’s largest economy embrace the future or double down on past successes? Europe is at a hinge moment, but so is Germany. And it is hard for the EU to go anywhere without its largest economy consenting to go in the same direction. Hard though not impossible, as shown by last week’s imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports, in the face of Berlin’s opposition. Still, so long as Germany does not know what it wants, the EU will struggle to make any big steps forward.”, The Financial Times, October 10, 2024
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Portugal
“Portugal proposes decade of tax breaks for young people to stem brain drain – In April, Portugal swore in a new center-right government. It inherited a huge problem, namely: how do you stop a brain drain that’s seen thousands of young people leave your country, at a time when your population is naturally aging and birth rates are hitting record lows? The new prime minister, Luís Montenegro, has a radical proposal — a decade of super low taxes for people under 35. Under the proposed scheme, young workers who earn less than €28,000 ($30,650) would enjoy a completely tax-free first year. They would then be exempted from 75% of tax until the fourth year, enjoy a 50% exemption in years five to seven, and a final 25% in years eight to ten.”, Chartr, October 12, 2024
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United Kingdom
“UK economy grew 0.2% in August – Figure comes as chancellor Rachel Reeves prepares Labour government’s first Budget this month. Friday’s figure, in line with economists’ forecasts, came after zero growth in June and July but marked a slowdown from the start of the year. Services output grew 0.1 per cent in August, production was up 0.5 per cent and construction expanded 0.4 per cent, the Office for National Statistics said. The ONS data comes less than three weeks before Labour’s first Budget, when chancellor Rachel Reeves faces the challenge of lifting economic growth while repairing the public finances”, The Financial Times, October 11, 2024
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“UK employers and staff pay more tax on earnings than Germany – Taxes on income, profits and capital gains paid by individuals and corporations in the UK rose to the equivalent of 13.3pc of the economy in 2022, amid fears that Rachel Reeves will push the burden even higher in her maiden Budget on Oct 30. This is the highest share since records began in 1990, according to data compiled by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), pushing the UK’s burden on earnings further ahead of Germany, Europe’s largest economy. The UK’s tax share on earnings surpassed German levels in 2021 amid a stealth raid on wages presided over by Rishi Sunak.”, The Telegraph, October 7, 2024
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United States
“US Consumer Sentiment Unexpectedly Falls on High Cost of Living – University of Michigan sentiment index at 68.9 after 70.1. Short-term inflation views rose to 2.9% in early October. Consumers expect prices will climb 2.9% over the next year, up from the 2.7% expected in September and the first increase in five months, the report issued Friday showed. At the same time, they see costs rising 3% over the next five to 10 years, down from 3.1% in the prior month.”, Bloomberg, October 11, 2024
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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades
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Brand & Franchising News
“Foot Locker’s reimagined concept store set to debut in Australia – The store will feature the ‘Home Court’ experience, a multi-brand destination developed in partnership with Nike and Jordan. The store will feature Foot Locker’s ‘Home Court’ experience, a multi-brand destination developed in partnership with Nike and Jordan. Its product offer will include on-court and off-court items from Nike, Jordan, Adidas, Puma, New Balance, and Under Armour. The reimagined store concept launch comes after Foot Locker celebrated its 50th anniversary last month. The brand has also launched the reimagined store concept in New York, Paris, and New Jersey, and will launch soon in Delhi.”, Inside Retail Australia, October 14, 2024
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“Shake Shack reinvents the labor deployment model – The burger chain joins a growing number of fast-casual chains using AI-driven technology to better manage staffing. Shake Shack is moving to a bespoke labor deployment model that CEO Rob Lynch said could be a game changer. In fact, the fast-casual burger chain joins a number of peers making similar moves toward using AI-driven technology to more accurately predict the team members needed in each restaurant and when to deploy them. The CEOs of Chipotle, Sweetgreen and Cava in recent months have all described using similar types of technology as they look to improve profitability at a time when macroeconomic pressures are keeping a lid on menu price increases.”, Restaurant Business, September 5, 2024
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“Family favourite restaurant to close 35 locations immediately – More than 1,000 staff will lose their jobs at TGI Fridays (UK) after a deal to save the well-known brand failed to include all 86 locations. A deal has been struck that saves 51 restaurants and nearly 2,400 jobs. The new deal was agreed today with private equity firms Breal Capital and Calveton UK, and will operate under the Liberty Bar and Restaurant Group Limited name.”, The Sun UK, October 7, 2024
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To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here https://insider.edwardsglobal.com
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.
| To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ |
Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking
For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 118, Tuesday, October 1, 2024
How Hello Kitty Took Over The World – 50 Years Ago!
Commentary about the 118th Issue: China releases a ‘shock and awe’ economic package. Chick-fil-a® reenters the United Kingdom and Slim Chickens® enters Germany. The world’s superpower(s)? Inflation continues to fall in European countries. The immense energy needs to train a new AI bot. Wisdom from Abraham Lincoln, Jeff Bezos and Vidal Sassion (really!). Nearshoring in Central Europe. G7 government debt projections.
An amazing chart showing the progression of corruption in Mexican companies and institutions is in this edition. In 2022, China’s population shrank for the first time since 1961. How Hello Kitty Took Over the World 50 years ago! And…..women are beginning to leave men behind.
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Editor’s Note: You will see small ads in each edition for carefully vetted companies that serve international businesses. These small, focused, vetted ads are in place of charging subscriptions to our readers. Please click on the ads or use the QR code to see what each of our carefully chosen advertisers can do to make doing global business easier.
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Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with any questions, comments and we welcome contributions.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/
+1 949 375 1896
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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“Whatever you are, be a good one.”, Abraham Lincoln
“If you can’t feed a team with two pizzas, it’s too large.”, Jeff Bezos
“The only place where success comes before work is in the dictionary.”, Vidal Sassoon
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Highlights in issue #118:
- Brand Global News Section: Chick-fil-a®, Hello Kitty® and Slim Chickens®
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B2B Payments Platform For Global Businesses
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“The end of Moore’s law will not slow the pace of change – Semiconductors are likely to continue their transformational role. In the past 50 years, processors have come to operate tens of thousands of times faster and store a million times more data in the same area. The cost of a transistor has also fallen by a factor of a billion, making technology a global deflationary force. They are also ubiquitous: semiconductors are now the third-most traded commodity in the world by value, after oil and cars. A single Blackwell chip, Nvidia’s latest, runs five times faster than its predecessor, but uses 70% more power in the process. Data centres lash hundreds or thousands of these power-hungry chips together to run large artificial-intelligence (ai) models. By some estimates, Openai, maker of Chatgpt, guzzled more than 50 gigawatt-hours of electricity to train its latest model (see chart). The International Energy Agency calculates that in 2022 data centres consumed 460 terawatt-hours, or almost 2% of global electricity demand. The agency expects this figure to double by 2026.”, The Economist, September 16, 2024
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“World’s Biggest Superpowers in 2024 – The global economic order is stitched together by trade and economic collaboration, but these show signs of fraying. With nationalism on the rise and cross-border trade flows stagnating, economies are growing more protectionist. At the same time, demographic shifts are driving economic growth and productivity in India and Asia, which could shift the global power balance. This graphic ranks world superpowers in 2024, based on analysis from Ray Dalio’s Great Powers Index 2024. (This chart shows) the total strength of world superpowers, based on a wide range of metrics including economic output, military strength, and trade. Additionally, we show per capita strength, indicating a country’s efficiency relative to its population. Visual Capitalist & Ray Dalio, September 24, 2024
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“We spent nearly a year building a generative AI tool. These are the 5 (hard) lessons we learned. McKinsey built an AI tool called Lilli to bring sources and capabilities into one platform to improve workflows. Say hello to “Lilli,” the gen AI tool launched in August 2023. Named after Lillian Dombrowski, the first professional woman hired by McKinsey in 1945, our goal was to aggregate McKinsey’s 40-plus sources and capabilities into a single platform. This would allow teams around the world to readily access McKinsey’s knowledge, generate insights, and thus help clients. Technological change is inherently difficult. For any organization, incorporating gen AI will probably feature such difficulties. That said, it is possible to benefit from experience. Looking back on our 11-month effort, here are five principles we learned—sometimes the hard way.”, Fast Company, June 11, 2024
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“Young women are starting to leave men behind – Men’s education deficit is increasingly becoming an employment, earnings and outcomes gap, with significant repercussions. Across the developed world, girls and young women have been pulling ahead of boys and young men in education for several decades, with much larger proportions going on to attend university than their male counterparts. Much less appreciated than the widening tertiary education gap is the fact that in several rich countries young women are now more likely to be in work than young men.”, The Financial Times, September 19, 2024
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Simple, secure currency transfers
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“Government Debt Projections for G7 Countries (2024-2029F) – This graphic uses data from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) April 2024 edition of the World Economic Outlook to show how the U.S. stacks up against its G7 counterparts in terms of projected gross debt as a percentage of GDP in 2024, and how debt is forecasted to change by 2029. Gross debt is the total value of all of a country’s liabilities at a given point in time. Net debt is gross debt less a country’s financial assets, including cash reserves or investments. The debt figures in this infographic are of government debt, and don’t include public sector debt from provincial or state-level debt. While this reduction in rates will help reduce debt-servicing costs, the U.S. is still projected to see the biggest increase in its gross debt of all G7 nations over the next five years.” Visual Capitalist & IMF, September 25, 2024
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“The hard stuff: Navigating the physical realities of the energy transition – The energy transition is in its early stages, with about 10 percent of required deployment of low-emissions technologies by 2050 achieved in most areas. What challenges lie ahead? About half of energy-related CO2 emissions reduction depends on addressing the most demanding physical challenges. For all its advantages, today’s system also has critical flaws. About two-thirds of energy is currently wasted. And the system generates more than 85 percent of global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2).”, McKinsey, August 14, 2024
Editor’s Note: This article by McKinsey is very dense but very detailed about the challenges faced by many industries and countries to make the transition to renewable energy worldwide.
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“Sustainable fuel flies higher – Global projections for sustainable aviation fuel capacity in 2030 have increased significantly since 2022. According to partner Axel Esqué and coauthors, the projected 2030 volume has doubled, from seven million metric tons in 2022 to 14 million metric tons this year. Although the 2030 projection is now higher, the amount of fuel expected to be available in the near future has decreased since last year’s projection.”, McKinsey, September 26, 2024
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Global & Regional Travel
“Everything you need to know about EES, the new EU visa scheme – With the new Entry/Exit System (EES) launching in November, following by the long-delayed visa waiver next year, we take a look at what it means for travellers. It will mean anyone travelling to and from most European countries without an EU passport will need to have their biometrics — fingerprints and photograph — captured and then checked on every visit. There are fears of queues in terminals and at ports as the rules come into force. It will add two to three minutes of processing time per passenger, up from about 45 seconds at present. The scheme will be adopted by 29 countries, including all EU members bar Cyprus and Ireland. It will also be in force in Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. People with passports issued by any of these countries — including Cyprus and Ireland — will be exempt.”, National Geographic Traveler, September 20, 2024
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Book Review
“Generative AI in Practice” by Bernard Marr (2024) is a timely and accessible guide for professionals and business leaders looking to understand how generative AI can be applied across various industries. Marr does an excellent job of breaking down complex AI concepts into practical insights that are easy to grasp, even for those without a technical background. One of the key strengths of this book is its real-world examples, which provide readers with concrete illustrations of how generative AI can drive business innovation. Whether it’s automating creative processes like writing and design or improving product development through AI-generated simulations, Marr shows how AI is more than just a trend—it’s reshaping industries.
Marr doesn’t shy away from discussing the risks of generative AI, such as job displacement, biased outputs, and the potential for misuse. He emphasizes the need for responsible AI implementation, making this book not just a technical guide but also a thoughtful exploration of the societal impact of AI.
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Keith Gerson and Bill Edwards Join Forces To Offer Trusted Suppliers To The Franchise Community
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Country & Regional Updates
Central & Eastern Europe (CEE)
“Near-shoring is turning eastern Europe into the new China – With firms moving production closer to market, CEE is the place to be. cee countries are benefiting from firms shifting production closer to the European market (near-shoring) or to places considered politically reliable (friend-shoring), as well as old-fashioned offshoring for lower costs. There are three reasons to expect more investment into the region. The first is the global transition to climate neutrality. The second reason is Chinese overcapacity. Finally, tension between America and China, with Europe in between, can disrupt supply chains. This is why firms have started to bring production closer to markets (near-shoring).”, The Economist, September 19, 2024
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China
“China’s Shock-and-Awe Package Misses Key Element: Fiscal Policy – It probably says more about China’s lack of policy stimulus to date that the package of monetary measures announced Tuesday amounted to the strongest set of steps seen in years. The production “speaks to the urgency felt in Beijing to head off deflationary risks and get growth on track for the 5% target” for 2024, Chang Shu and Eric Zhu of Bloomberg Economics wrote. The team’s SHOK model indicates a boost of as much as about 1% of GDP over the coming year. But at the end of the day it’s a “growth boost,” not an “economy fix,” Shu and Zhu wrote.”, Bloomberg, September 25, 2024
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“China’s Silver Economy Is Thriving as Birthrate Plunges – The shrinking population poses threats to growth but has opened opportunities for businesses that serve seniors. Schools for children have been turned into education centers offering activities for seniors like singing, dancing and art classes. China’s aging society is expected to deplete the vigor and vitality of the world’s second-largest economy in the coming decades. But the adverse effects of demographic change are already apparent for Chinese businesses that cater to children. Dairy companies that produced formula for China’s infants are now developing powdered milks for seniors. Proprietors of preschools and kindergartens are closing those facilities to start senior care centers. A technology firm that made devices for parents to track their young children is now designing products allowing grown children to keep tabs on their aging mothers and fathers.
In 2022, China’s population shrank for the first time since 1961. Deaths outnumbered births again last year, and the number of 60-year-olds topped 290 million, or one in every five Chinese people.”, The New York Times, September 20, 2024. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
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Europe & European Union Countries
“ECB Rate-Cut Bets Jump as France, Spain Inflation Sinks Below 2% – Prices rose 1.5% in France in September, 1.7% in Spain. Markets now see 80% chance of rates being lowered in October. Inflation in France and Spain plunged below 2% — fueling predictions by investors and economists that the European Central Bank will speed up the pace of interest-rate cuts.”, Bloomberg, September 26, 2024
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“No End in Sight for Europe’s Sluggish Economy – The European Union’s economic growth rate slowed in the second quarter, though the bloc’s gross domestic product was 0.2 percent higher compared with the previous three-month period. The EU’s largest economies showed very modest growth, with Germany, traditionally the region’s economic driver, even posting negative figures. This confirms a stable trend of slower economic growth amid ongoing domestic and foreign policy challenges. The war in Ukraine has become a money pit for all sides, while the loss of Russia as a supplier of cheap energy and a buyer of European goods continues to drag on the EU economy.
Other factors, including a stronger emphasis on fiscal discipline, further hinder Europe’s economic acceleration, especially compared with the U.S., where GDP grew by 0.7 percent on a quarterly basis over the same period. Although the European Central Bank has started to lower interest rates as inflation cools, a sudden turnaround in growth is unlikely.”, Geopolitical Futures, September 27, 2024
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Germany
“German inflation drops below 2% for first time since early 2021 – Softer price pressure and weak economic activity increase chances of ECB rate cut in October. Inflation in Germany is now at its lowest level since February 2021, when it stood at 1.6 per cent. It had surged to 11.6 per cent by October 2023, driven by higher energy prices, pent-up demand after the Covid-19 pandemic and shortages in the wake of global supply chain disruptions.”, The Financial Times, September 30, 2024
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Indonesia
“Indonesia formally requests to join Trans-Pacific trade pact – Indonesia has formally requested to join the Trans-Pacific trade pact to widen its export markets, its chief economic minister said on Wednesday, according to a report by state news agency Antara. Jakarta announced its intention to join the free trade agreement that already groups 12 countries in May, hoping to attract investment by widening export market access. CPTPP members are Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United Kingdom and Vietnam.”, Reuters, September 25, 2024
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Japan
“How Hello Kitty Took Over the World – Investors in Sanrio have made 10 times their money as the iconic Japanese brand expands digitally. Hello Kitty is celebrating her 50th birthday this year. Sanrio the Japanese company behind the iconic character, has much to cheer about too. Sanrio’s share price is at a record high after surging 10-fold from its trough in 2020. The company is delivering record profits with strong revenue growth. Operating profit last quarter rose 80% from a year earlier……Sanrio’s business outside of Japan is booming, particularly in China and the U.S. Its profit contribution from abroad, including royalties payment from overseas subsidiaries to the parent company, nearly doubled year on year in the June quarter. Sanrio struck a deal with China’s e-commerce giant Alibabain 2022 to license its characters in the country. But the U.S. is among its fastest-growing markets: Sales in the Americas grew 141% year on year last quarter. The younger generation is increasingly familiar with Sanrio’s characters given the company’s strong presence on social media.”, The Wall Street Journal, September 25, 2024
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Mexico
“Mexico’s Audacious Judicial Overhaul – Just weeks away from leaving office, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador ushered legacy-defining judicial reforms through Congress, sparking concern among opponents and international businesses. Mexican governments have restructured the court system several times over the past 30 years, but institutional weaknesses have persisted. Whether the latest reforms will do what they’re intended to do remains an open question, but the deep-rooted problems that undermine public confidence in the courts are likely to endure. The implications for the economy could be severe. Critics worry that the new judiciary, reflecting the politics of Morena, could favor protectionist policies and adopt a more nationalistic regulatory approach. The reforms pave the way for changes to regulatory bodies overseeing economic competition, telecommunications, and oil and gas, potentially undermining Mexico’s commitments under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. Other opponents say the reforms could undermine labor, environmental and trade standards required by the agreement or jeopardize dispute resolution procedures involving judges.”, Geopolitical Futures, September 24, 2024
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United States
“(U.S.) Consumer Confidence Drops in August – The August Consumer Confidence Score was 55.9 (-0.5 vs. July), which is an average of how consumers feel about the job market, their household finances, and their spending comfort levels. The August Financial Outlook Score was 50.8 (+0.1), indicating that consumers feel neutral about their household finances. Thinking about one year from now, 25% think their finances will be better than they are now, 51% think they’ll be the same, and 24% think they’ll be worse.”, Franchising.com, September 23, 2024
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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades
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Brand & Franchising News
“Chick-fil-A shares ‘first phase’ of U.K. expansion plans – The chain’s initial entry in the market includes restaurants in Belfast, Leeds, Liverpool, and London. That stage is expected to take two years, while the company plans to invest over $100 million to expand there within the next 10 years. In addition to the U.K., the company is eyeing ambitious international growth in stores across Europe and Asia supported by a $1 billion investment. Plans currently call for five international markets by 2030, with the U.K. housing the first permanent store outside of North America.”, Nation’s Restaurant News, September 26, 2024
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“Inflation Threatens 87% of (U.S.) Franchisees — Here Are the Ways They’re Fighting Back From soaring labor costs to escalating supply prices, franchise owners are facing significant economic challenges, mostly due to inflation. Industries such as food and personal services, where profit margins are already slim, are feeling the inflationary squeeze more acutely. Franchisees across the country are feeling the squeeze of rising costs, with 87% reporting that inflation is impacting their bottom line, according to the 2024 IFA Annual Franchisee Survey. From soaring labor costs to escalating supply prices, franchise owners face significant economic issues.”, Entrepreneur, September 23, 2024
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“Slim Chickens Opens First Location in Germany – Slim Chickens announced today its first restaurant in Berlin, Germany. The brand has opened locations across the United States, Turkey, and the United Kingdom.”, Franchising.com, September 10, 2024
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“2024 Top Global Franchises Ranking – Click here to see the list of this year’s top 200 global – not U.S. – franchise brands across 12 different business sectors. From small to very large and from food to senior care, these franchise brands are making history across the globe.
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To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here https://insider.edwardsglobal.com
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.
| To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ |
Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking
For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 117, Tuesday, September, 2024
Commentary about the 117th Issue: In some countries people spend more per year on their pets than their kids! Amazon calls almost everyone back to work in offices. Four companies spent US$52.9 billion last quarter alone on property and equipment. Take a look at which countries have minable reserves of the chemicals needed for the switch to renewable energy.
The business book to read now is How the World Ran Out of Everything: Inside the Global Supply Chain” by Peter S. Goodman. The use of coal for energy continues to rise, just ask China. The top 14 largest countries in the Americas by population size have all seen nearly 40% population growth between 1990–2023. US consumer sentiment is rising. And countries are moving up and down in the latest GlobalVue™ country ranking as places to do business.Editor’s Note: You will see small ads in each edition for carefully vetted companies that serve international businesses. Please click on the ads or use the QR code to see what each of our carefully chosen advertisers can do to make doing global business easier.
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Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with any questions, comments and we welcome contributions.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/
+1 949 375 1896
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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“Earth is the cradle of humanity, but one cannot live in a cradle forever.”, Konstantin Tsiolkovsky
“We’d never have got a chance to go outside and look at the earth if it hadn’t been for space exploration and NASA.”, James Lovelock
“The best and most beautiful things in the world cannot be seen or even touched – they must be felt with the heart.”, Helen Keller
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Highlights in issue #117:
- Brand Global News Section: Dominos®, Franchise Update Media, International Franchise Association and Toridoll®
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B2B Payments Platform For Global Businesses
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
GlobalVue™ – The latest quarterly 40 country ranking as places to do business chart can be downloaded on readable format at: https://edwardsglobal.com/globalvue/. The ranking of countries in red have change substantially since May.
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“Amazon CEO Vows Leaner Teams Amid Bloat, Ends Work From Home – Company is targeting bureaucracy after ballooning in size Jassy acknowledges RTO policy will require ‘adjustments’. The shakeup, announced in a memo to employees on Monday, echoed what some company veterans have been whispering for years: It’s become harder to get things done at Amazon. Stories of endless deliberation, unnecessary meetings and layers of approval have become commonplace at a company that fashions itself as a collection of teams charged with operating like startups., Bloomberg, September 16, 2024
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“Emerging Technologies – From the wheel to the internal combustion engine, new technologies have, for better or worse, fundamentally transformed our society. The emerging technologies listed have the potential to do the same. How and when they change the world, however, will depend on the geopolitical competition around their development and execution. Artificial intelligence breakthroughs like deep learning, generative AI and foundation models enable scientists to achieve previously unthinkable discoveries and accelerate scientific progress. Access to massive datasets, particularly via AI, will almost certainly expedite research, discovery and innovation. The biggest players here are the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, India and China.”, Geopolitical Futures, September 13, 2024
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“People are splurging like never before on their pets – Would you buy your furry companion a cologne? There is little, it seems, that people won’t do for their pets. Americans spent $186bn on them last year, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, covering everything from food and vet visits to toys and grooming. That is more than they spent on childcare. Spending on pets rocketed through the covid-19 pandemic, as lonely people adopted animals then splurged on them. Between 2019 and 2023 pet spending grew by a compound annual rate of 11%, in nominal terms, compared with 6% for consumer spending overall and 5% for pet spending over the preceding decade. Plenty more growth is yet to come.”, The Economist, September 12, 2024
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Emergent Risk International – What We’re Watching – Week of Sept 15, 2024. This is an amazing weekly look at global ‘hotspots’ that we recommend subscribing to. Meredith Wilson, Chief Executive Officer & Founder, started Emergent Risk International in 2014. It is one of the most timely sources of trusted global information today.
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Taking Businesses Global Profitably
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“The AI Spending Spree, in Charts – Tech giants and investors are shoveling cash into artificial intelligence amid questions about whether it will pay off. Generative artificial intelligence has sparked one of the biggest spending booms in modern American history, as companies and investors bet hundreds of billions of dollars that the technology will revolutionize the global economy and one day lead to massive profits. The question is when, and even whether, all those investments will pay off. “The risk of underinvesting is dramatically greater than the risk of overinvesting,” Sundar Pichai, chief executive of Google parent Alphabet, said on an earnings call in July. Venture capitalists are similarly betting that at least a few AI startups could one day be worth billions or even trillions, even though most currently aren’t profitable.”, The Wall Street Journal, September 11, 2024
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“Which countries have the critical minerals needed for the energy transition? An overview of the distribution of critical minerals for clean energy. The world’s energy system today is mainly powered by fossil fuels. The transition to a low-carbon one will shift its underpinnings away from coal, oil, and gas to the minerals needed for solar, wind, nuclear, batteries, and other technologies. The dynamics of the energy system will shift dramatically. Who currently produces critical minerals such as cobalt, lithium, nickel, and copper? Which countries have reserves that can be mined in the future?”, Our World In Data, September 16, 2024
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“Deconstructing global trade: the role of geopolitical alignment – The slowdown in global trade, which intensified following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has highlighted threats to globalisation. Since the end of the Second World War, the global economy has become increasingly integrated, with trade playing a central role. Increasing integration has been an engine of economic growth, allowing countries to specialise in the goods and services in which they have a comparative advantage. However, rising geopolitical tensions have fuelled concerns about a possible retreat from globalisation, sometimes called “deglobalisation”. As an illustration, a popular measure of geopolitical risk based on press articles displays a noticeable spike around the time of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and has remained elevated thereafter. Meanwhile, the total value of global trade as a share of global GDP peaked soon after the invasion and has declined since.”, Bank of International Settlements, September 16, 2024
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Simple, secure currency transfers
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Book Review
One of the key international business books released in 2024 is “How the World Ran Out of Everything: Inside the Global Supply Chain” by Peter S. Goodman. This book provides an in-depth exploration of the vulnerabilities and complexities in global supply chains, particularly in light of recent disruptions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.
Goodman highlights the intricate paths that products take from factories in Asia to consumers worldwide, revealing the ruthless business practices and financial interests that have left many communities vulnerable. This is an essential read for understanding the fragility and future of global supply chains. By the New York Times’s Global Economics Correspondent, an extraordinary journey to understand the worldwide supply chain—exposing both the fascinating pathways of manufacturing and transportation that bring products to your doorstep, and the ruthless business logic that has left local communities at the mercy of a complex and fragile network for their basic necessities. (Extracted from various sources).
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Country & Regional Updates
China
“China is suffering from a crisis of confidence – Can anything perk up its economy? According to the National Bureau of Statistics, consumer confidence collapsed in April 2022 when Shanghai and other big cities were locked down to fight the covid-19 pandemic (see chart 1). It has yet to recover. Indeed, confidence declined again in July, according to the latest survey. The figure is so bad it is a wonder the government still releases it. Gloom is not confined to consumers. Foreign companies have long complained about unfair or unpredictable policymaking. Some have declared China “uninvestible” as a consequence. Now their money is running along with their mouths. Foreign direct investment (fdi) in the country slumped to minus $14.8bn in the second quarter of this year, the worst figure on record. Any dollars ploughed in were comfortably outweighed by foreign investors selling stakes, collecting loan repayments or repatriating earnings.”, The Economist, September 5, 2024
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“China’s Energy Needs Keep on Rising – Beginning in the 1990s, rapid industrialization in China led to increased electricity demand for factories and infrastructure. Mass migration to cities and improved living conditions is pushing demand even higher. According to estimates by China’s national statistics department, a 1% increase in the urbanization rate increases total energy consumption by at least 60 million tons of coal.”, Visual Capitalist, August 20, 2024
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European Union Countries
“The Future Of European Competitiveness – Europe has been worrying about slowing growth since the start of this century. Various strategies to raise growth rates have come and gone, but the trend has remained unchanged. On a per capita basis, real disposable income has grown almost twice as much in the US as in the EU since 2000. For most of this period, slowing growth has been seen as an inconvenience but not a calamity. Europe’s exporters managed to capture market shares in faster growing parts of the world, especially Asia. Many more women entered the workforce, lifting the labour contribution to growth. And, after the crises of 2008 to 2012, unemployment steadily fell across Europe, helping to reduce inequality and maintain social welfare. The EU also benefitted from a favourable global environment. World trade burgeoned under multilateral rules. The safety of the US security umbrella freed up defence budgets to spend on other priorities. In a world of stable geopolitics, we had no reason to be concerned about rising dependencies on countries we expected to remain our friends. But the foundations on which we built are now being shaken.”, European Commission, September 2024
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“ECB cuts interest rates to 3.5% – Christine Lagarde says policymakers decided ‘unanimously’ on this year’s second quarter-point reduction. ECB (European Central Bank) president Christine Lagarde said Thursday’s decision to lower the benchmark deposit rate for the second time this year was “unanimously decided” — unlike the previous cut in June, when Austria’s central bank head Robert Holzmann dissented. Major central banks are now lowering rates in response to indications that the biggest inflationary surge for a generation has faded, with the US Federal Reserve expected to start cutting borrowing costs next week. Referring to the ECB’s 2 per cent inflation goal, Lagarde said recent data ‘comforts us in our confidence that we are heading towards our target’.”, The Financial Times, September 12, 2024
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Latin America
“Foreign Investment Trends in Latin America – Latin American countries remain trapped in a low-growth environment, hindered by economic volatility, high inequality and ineffective governance. As a result, many governments in the region are turning to foreign direct investment to spur growth. However, FDI fell by 9.9 percent last year to $184.3 billion. While mergers and acquisitions increased by 15 percent, their total value decreased by 13 percent. FDI is concentrated in a few countries. Brazil attracted 35 percent of the region’s FDI last year, followed by Mexico with 16 percent. Argentina, boosted by the new government of President Javier Milei, came in third with 13 percent, while Chile and Colombia secured 12 percent and 9 percent, respectively. The U.S. remains the largest investor in the region, with the European Union driving mergers and acquisitions. The EU showed the largest increase in FDI from 2022 to 2023, followed by Canada. China remains active but has diminished its investment role compared to a decade ago.”, Geopolitical Futures, September 6, 2024
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“How Populations Have Changed in the Americas (1990-2023) – Currently more than one billion people live in the Americas, an area with 35 countries and many overseas territories and dependencies. This color-coded map shows population changes by country in the Americas from 1990 to 2023. Data was sourced from the 2024 World Population Prospects from the UN. The top 14 largest countries in the Americas by population size have all seen nearly 40% population growth between 1990–2023.”, Visual Capitalist, September 5, 2024
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Southeast Asia
“As cheap Chinese imports flood Southeast Asia, industries struggle to stay afloat – Local industries – from Thailand’s truckers to Malaysia’s retailers – are feeling the squeeze from low-cost Chinese goods. Half of the ceramics factories in Thailand’s northern Lampang province have closed. In Indonesia, thousands of textile workers have lost their jobs. Malaysia’s manufacturers, meanwhile, say the government’s attempt at stemming the tide – a meagre 10 per cent tax on e-commerce – has done little to shield them from the deluge. The flood of Chinese goods has been aided by the world’s largest e-commerce market, as well as new railways and upgraded ports that streamline logistics. An intricate web of free trade agreements – from the Asean Free Trade Area to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership – further paves the way for Chinese products to penetrate local markets.”, South China Morning Post, September 7, 2024
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United States
“US Consumer Sentiment Rises as Inflation Expectations Retreat – University of Michigan sentiment index increased to 69 Short-term inflation views fell to 2.7%, lowest since 2020. US consumer sentiment rose to a four-month high in early September, helped by the tamest short-term inflation expectations since the end of 2020 and prospects for lower borrowing costs. Consumers expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 2.7% over the next year compared with the 2.8% expected a month earlier. That represented a fourth month of declining short-term inflation expectations.”, Bloomberg, September 13, 2024
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The Franchise Consortium’s Franchise Supplier Accreditation Is Coming
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Brand & Franchising News
“Domino’s announces plans to hire 5,000 workers ahead of the festive season in Britain and Ireland – Domino’s plans to hire new staff in a variety roles from new delivery drivers to in-store team members and pizza makers. Over Christmas the company sees a marked increase in demand and the period represents a crucial trading period for companies like Domino’s Pizza. The driving force to ramp up staffing to ensure smooth service for customers.”, The Daily Mail, September 15, 2024
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“IFA to Acquire Multi-Unit Franchising Conference Owner Franchise Update Media – The International Franchise Association will expand its events and media holdings with the acquisition of Franchise Update Media. In a deal set to close by the end of the year, the purchase will put the Multi-Unit Franchising Conference and Multi-Unit Franchisee Magazine, along with numerous franchise education, franchise opportunity and market resource products, under the IFA umbrella. ‘We’re trying to grow as an organization, and this is a lot better way to grow than starting something new and competing with what’s already established,’ said IFA President and CEO Matt Haller as he noted the association is in a strong financial position to make the investment.”, Franchise Times, September 13, 2024
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“Meet The Japanese Noodle Billionaire Taking On McDonald’s And KFC – Takaya Awata parlayed a tiny local diner into quick-service giant Toridoll Holdings. Now he wants to taste global success. When Takaya Awata used his meager savings to open a small restaurant in Kakogawa, a coastal city off Japan’s Seto Inland Sea, the then-23-year-old named it Toridoll Sanban-kan, or Toridoll store No. 3. It was a promise to himself that stores number one and two were only a matter of time and he would soon achieve his modest goal of owning three restaurants. Four decades later, Awata’s Tokyo-listed Toridoll Holdings has a network of nearly 2,000 quick-service restaurants across 28 countries and regions covering 21 brands. The flagship is Marugame Seimen, Japan’s largest udon noodle chain by both revenue and store count. The entrepreneur’s fast-food success has made him a billionaire and honed his ambitions.”, Forbes, September 8, 2024 per cent to $7.9 million and US network sales surged 81.8 per cent to $10.8 million.”, Inside Retail AU, August 27, 2024
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.
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For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
