EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 5, Monday, June 1, 2020
By William (Bill) Edwards, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)
“’I wish it need not have happened in my time,’ said Frodo. ‘So do I,’ said Gandalf, ‘and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.’” —J.R.R. Tolkein
“You may not control all the events that happen to you, but you can decide not to be reduced by them.” —Maya Angelou
Introduction
The goal of this newsletter is to provide an update on the economic and business situation around the world. We monitor 30+ countries, 25 daily international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing environment. Our team on the ground covers 43 countries and provides us with updates about what is happening in their specific countries.
Many of our newsletter readers are sending us their input and perspectives to help us publish a balanced view about the world every other week. Our contact information is at the bottom of this newsletter.
The Focus of This Issue
This issue focuses on what is happening in 26 countries that impact consumer spending and travel. As with newsletter issue #4, the three themes of this issue are the continuing reopening of businesses around the world, travel restarts and restrictions.
In Summary, many more countries are starting or expanding reopening of businesses than the last report on May 20th. There is some progress in restarting business travel in the Asia Pacific and in Europe without 14-day isolation periods once a passenger arrives. The Americas and the Middle East remain largely closed down due to increasing virus cases, tight government restrictions or both.
A Coronavirus Country Status Map for June 1, 2020
Based on our research and input from our Associates around the world for this issue of our newsletter, we created this map showing where countries are in the COVID-19 process.
International Travel Updates
“How Travel Will Change: Airports will have more security and screening; hotels and homes rentals will prioritize cleaning but keep the personal touches; local travel is set to boom in the next year; we’ll be spreading out across bike lanes, buses, and public transportation; restaurants and bars will operate with distance, for now; and car rental pickups will get a lot more seamless. Conde Nast Traveler, May 29, 2020
https://bit.ly/HowTravelWillChange
“U.S. airlines continue to add back long-haul international routes, albeit at a snail’s pace. June is typically a banner month for international travel as schools are out and people take off on summer holidays the world over. Not this year as mandatory quarantines and travel restrictions will keep most would-be travelers near home. For June, these are the 40 long-haul routes to Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe and far South America that U.S. carriers are flying with passengers.”, The Points Guy, May 27, 2020. See the U.S. carrier international flight adds at this link:
https://bit.ly/TPGUScarriersaddintlflights
“Singapore-China to open essential travel corridor in early June: Singapore and China plan to reopen essential travel for business and official purposes between the two countries early next month, they said in a joint statement on Friday. The so-called “Fast Lane arrangement” will be first applied between the Southeast Asian city-state and six Chinese provinces and municipalities – Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing, Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang – before being gradually expanded.”, Reuters, May 29, 2020
“Qatar Airways said on Twitter on Tuesday that it planned to fly a summer schedule to over 80 destinations worldwide.”, Reuters, May 26, 2020
“United Airlines to return to 11 cities in Asia, Europe and South America in July: United Airlines will resume flying a quarter of its schedule in July as the carrier builds back its route map from the depths of its coronavirus pandemic cuts. The Star Alliance carrier will return to 11 long-haul cities in Asia, Europe and South America, United said on May 29. Destinations include Brussels (BRU), Buenos Aires (EZE), Delhi (DEL), Dublin (DUB), Hong Kong (HKG), Lima (LIM), Munich (MUC), Seoul Incheon (ICN), Singapore (SIN), Tokyo Haneda (HND) and Zurich (ZRH).”, The Points Guy, May 30, 2020
“Ryanair has announced that it will ramp up flights to 40 per cent of its normal schedule to the ‘key holiday airports’ in Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece and Cyprus.”, The Daily Mail, May 26, 2020
“Countries try ‘travel bubbles’ to save post-lockdown tourist season: Facing the loss of a significant part of their economies, some countries in Europe are banding together to ease travel restrictions and avoid quarantines. The European nations of Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia have already created what they are calling a “Baltic travel bubble,” allowing one another’s citizens to travel among the three states without having to self-isolate on arrival. Greece, a major beach destination for Europeans said Wednesday that citizens of Balkan and Baltic countries, Germany and regional neighbors such as Israel and Cyprus are expected to be in the first wave to be allowed to enter the country without going into quarantine, but could be subject to random testing. Some countries might be excluded depending on the situation with their coronavirus outbreaks, Greek officials said.”, NBC News, May 25, 2020
The various sources on travel to mainland China below seem to offer different views on when ‘normal’ business travel to that country will be possible. And at present there is a 14-day isolation period when you arrive before business meetings can be done.
Australia
“NSW Pubs, Cafes And Restaurants Will Be Able To Welcome 50 People By June 1: The New South Wales government has declared that bars and pubs in the state will be allowed to welcome up to 50 people by June 1. Premier Gladys Berejiklian said the latest round of coronavirus case figures prove it is becoming safer for people to reenter the community. Establishments have previously been restricted to just 10 people and the actual public bar sections have been shut, meaning people wanting a beer or wine would have to have it with a meal. Under the new guidelines, the bar section will be permitted to open and welcome five times the number of people previously allowed.”, LAD Bible, May 22, 2020
Canada
“While B.C. has succeeded in lowering its numbers, Ontario and Quebec, Canada’s first and largest provinces respectively, have stubbornly higher numbers and therefore no set date for re-opening. But with warmer weather it is becoming harder for the governments to hold people back. Still in Toronto, there are no restaurants (except for take-out), no hair salons, and no gyms. Other retail stores with street access (in other words no malls) have been allowed to re-open.”, Katya Logunov (Stepanishcheva), Barrister & Solicitor, Jones & Co., Toronto
“Quebec, Canada’s hardest-hit province, is also the most aggressive about reopening
It’s home to more than half of Canada’s coronavirus cases and more than 60 percent of its deaths. Retail businesses, manufacturing, construction and schools are all up and running.”, The Washington Post, May 23, 2020
Mainland China
“Chinese civil aviation authorities plan to extend until June 30 their curbs on international flights to contain the spread of the coronavirus, the U.S. embassy in Beijing said in a travel advisory on Friday. China has drastically cut such flights since March to allay concerns over infections brought by arriving passengers. A so-called “Five One” policy allows mainland carriers to fly just one flight a week on one route to any country and foreign airlines to operate just one flight a week to China.”, Skift, May 29, 2020
“Delta And United’s China Plans Get Lift As Chinese Airlines Propose More U.S. Flights If Coronavirus Curbs Ease: Delta Air Lines and United Airlines are frustrated they cannot add flights to China due to coronavirus-related restrictions. Those same curbs are holding back Chinese airlines, which are limited to one weekly flight each but propose a far larger summer schedule. China Eastern could fly 45 weekly China-U.S. flights, China Southern 38 and Xiamen Airlines nine, the carriers told the U.S. government. Under rules introduced March 29, foreign airlines have been allowed to fly just one flight a week to China while Chinese airlines have been limited to one flight a week to individual countries. Delta intends to fly daily to Shanghai from Detroit and Seattle. United told employees it wants to fly daily from its San Francisco hub to Beijing, Chengdu and Shanghai, and have a fourth flight from Newark to Shanghai. American Airlines has not disclosed plans.”, Forbes, May 29, 2020
“Global travel disruptions remain the top concern for American companies in China, with 90% of respondents to AmCham China’s new Flash Survey saying this has impacted their business operations, up from 77% last month. Meanwhile, both the short and long-term effects of the pandemic are now becoming clearer to companies, with 60% of respondents cutting costs (up 10pp from last month)…over one-third of respondents – rising to 53% in the Technology sector – are allowing managers to implement flexible work policies; just under one-third say they will not continue flexible work policies going forward. Nearly one-third of respondents say they are freezing or deferring internal promotions, while 28% of respondents say they will cancel or defer salary increases, and 18% say they will reduce or cancel bonuses in 2020.”, AmCham China, May 29, 2020
“Shanghai’s Hongqiao airport became the first airport in China to get an outlet of New York City-based fast-food chain Shake Shack. The burger brand opened for business at the airport’s T2 terminal on Thursday. Apart from its classic ShackBurger, the outlet sells cheeseburgers with pork and egg, juice, coffee and other breakfast choices to cater to business travelers. The outlet is decorated with elements of the city’s landmark Yuyuan Garden and air travel. Karina Lai, a retail management official at the airport, said the opening showed the airports ambition to restore business vitality and bring back customers to stores in the terminal buildings. They had been hit by the cancellation of flights due to the coronavirus pandemic. About 77 percent of the airport stores have reopened and the number of travelers has also been rising. The airport handled over 60,000 travelers in May, about 60 percent of the usual.”
https://www.shine.cn/news/metro/2005289077/
Colombia
“Colombia to begin easing restrictions from the start of June: Colombia will begin easing restrictions put in place to control the spread of the coronavirus starting from June, President Ivan Duque said Wednesday, though he asked the public to continue isolating at home and keep using measures to contain the disease.”, Reuters, May 27, 2020
Czech Republic
“The country’s state of emergency ended on 18 May. On 25 May, shops in shopping centres, business premises over 2,500 m2, restaurants and other services re-opened. Smaller retail units were partly or fully operational already prior to this. Wearing masks continues to be compulsory in inside public space, public transportation etc. Travel restrictions are being slowly being lifted with some “safe” countries (where the pandemic situation has improved / is comparable to that in the Czech Republic). It continues to be uncertain to which countries people will be able to travel for holiday, but popular near destinations such as Slovakia, Austria and Croatia are almost certain. The tourism industry, especially in Prague which is otherwise normally full of foreign tourists, of course critically suffers. Besides travel agencies, restaurants, hotels etc., also the real estate market is strongly affected because thousands of Airbnb apartments have been put out on the market for normal lease.”, Gabor Kaczmarczyk, Your Concierge, Budapest
Ecuador
The highest amount of virus cases and deaths have been in the region of Guayas (where the city of Guayaquil is located – the country’s largest). The stats have now stabilized and the country is beginning a phased reopening schedule. With 3108 deaths Ecuador’s situation has been similar to Peru’s, but worse than in Colombia where the virus was better controlled. Ecuador has indeed been quite impacted by Covid-19. As of right now, every city has its own protocol to go back to normal, as some cities have been more impacted than others. We have a red, yellow and green phase. Quito is in red, Guayaquil just moved to yellow. 30% of international flights will resume operations starting June 1st.”, Sandra Tinajero, U.S. State Department, U.S. Embassy in Quito
France
“Restaurants due to reopen across France: Édouard Philippe, the French prime minister, is expected to authorise restaurants outside Paris to open next week. Mr. Philippe may also allow the country’s 8,000 campsites to reopen as France prepares for the summer holidays. He is due to unveil the second stage of exiting lockdown this afternoon. Museums, cinemas and theatres are hoping that they will be given permission to open for the first time since March. The lockdown was imposed on March 17 and partially lifted on May 11.”, The Times Of London, May 28, 2020
“Paris cafes, bars and restaurants to reopen to outdoor space row: Temporary use of pavements or parking spots to be allowed for outdoor-only service, says mayor (Anne Hidalgo). ‘We have adopted a plan to help bars and restaurants for at least six months from March until the end of September,’ Hidalgo told Le Parisien. ‘One of these measures is the free occupation of a part of space in Paris. It could be pavements where possible or parking places. We could also close certain roads to traffic for some weekends to allow bars and restaurants to have more space.’”, The Guardian, May 31, 2020
Germany
“Germany to lift virus-related travel warning for EU countries from June 15: Germany will lift a warning against travel to 26 fellow EU countries from June 15, Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said on Wednesday, adding that Berlin would decide later on its travel guidelines for other countries, including Turkey.”, Reuters, May 27, 2020
Greece
“Greece is to open up to tourists from 29 countries in two weeks – but not those travelling from the UK. Tourists from EU countries including Germany, Austria, Denmark and Finland will be able to visit from 15 June, the tourism ministry said in a statement on Friday. But some of the world’s worst-affected countries – including the UK, France, Italy and Spain – are not on the list. More countries could be added before 1 July, the ministry added. Only airports in Athens and Thessaloniki will open on 15 June. Tourists from 16 EU countries will be allowed into the country, including the Czech Republic, Baltic countries, Cyprus and Malta.”, BBC.com, May 29, 2020
Hong Kong
“Travelers can transit through Hong Kong airport beginning in June: Hong Kong International Airport will reopen to transit travelers in June after a more than two-month closure to connecting passengers to stop the spread of the novel coronavirus. Beginning June 1, travelers can connect between flights on the “same airline group” at Hong Kong (HKG), according to the airport. Passengers must be checked in through to their final destination prior to landing in Hong Kong, and must wear a mask while they are in the airport. Non-residents are still barred from arriving in Hong Kong. In addition, travelers cannot transit to destinations in mainland China, reports the South China Morning Post.”, The Points Guy, May 30, 2020
“Hong Kong should form ‘travel bubbles’ with neighbours that have pandemic under control, tourism board chief says. Creating links with nations such as South Korea, Thailand and even mainland China could bring visitors back to city, according to Dane Cheng.”, South China Morning Post, May 22, 2020
Hungary
“The Hungarian government lifted most of the limitations on May 30: shops could re-open a couple of days earlier, and restaurants can receive guests even inside their premises if their ventilation doesn’t only circulate the air, but constantly adds fresh air from outside. Patients can now visit their doctors again for non-COVID-related examinations as well. Larger events, however, will most likely not be allowed before September. People must wear masks inside of public buildings (e.g. shopping malls, shops, government offices, etc.), as well as when using public transportation. The Hungarian government pays great attention to the recovery of the economy, and provides interest-free loans as well as non-refundable grants to companies to keep up the employment. The tourism industry suffered probably the most because of the epidemic, and it will take a while until the hotels recover, especially in Budapest. Restaurants are not in an easy situation either, although many of them started a delivery service, including fast food restaurants like Burger King and McDonalds. As far as travel is concerned, citizens from outside the European Economic Area (e.g. the U.S.) are still not allowed to enter the country, even if they reside here.”, Gabor Kaczmarczyk, Your Concierge, Budapest
India
“India is extending lockdown restrictions to June 30 in what the home ministry is calling “containment zones,” while allowing restaurants, malls and religious buildings to reopen in other parts of the country, Reuters reports. The order comes as India reported a record number of daily new Covid-19 cases a day before Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s initial lockdown order was set to lift, according to Reuters. India is allowing hospitality and retail businesses, along with places of worship, to open on June 8, while those buildings must keep social distancing rules in place, Reuters reported.”, CNBC, May 30, 2020
Japan
“After months of closures because of the coronavirus pandemic, some Apple Stores in Japan will reopen this week.”, iMore, May 25, 2020
Mexico
“New cases are still mounting each day in Mexico City, and there’s been a lot of chatter and criticism recently about the country’s handling and reporting of the virus. Some parts of the country are easing restrictions despite the increase in new cases because they cannot afford to be shut down economically. Most of these issues are taking place in and around Mexico City, one of the world’s most populated cities with about 21 million residents in its greater area. That said, other areas in Mexico are not as contaminated by the virus. In fact, Mexico’s plan calls for the country to reopen region-by-region, based on the number of local cases. Nearly 300 municipalities around the country, nicknamed “municipalities of hope,” have already begun to open.”, Forbes, May 26, 2020
New Zealand
“Small businesses and the self-employed have claimed almost $1 billion in ‘‘low or no interest’’ government loans offered to help them get through the Covid-19 crisis. Cinemas and restaurants can welcome up to 100 people, but they can take bookings for groups of no more than 10, while abiding by strict social distancing rules. From midday Friday, group sizes will increase from a maximum of 10 to 100, as part of revised gathering restrictions under alert level 2 – the change welcomed by religious groups and those involved in community sport. Until then, up to 50 people can attend tangi and funerals.”, extracted from a New Zealand government report on May 26, 2020 courtesy of Stewart Germann, Stewart Germann Law Office, Auckland
Panama
“Panama to relax coronavirus measures in second stage of re-opening; The Panama government said on Tuesday that in June it will start to relax some measures imposed to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus, permitting sectors such as construction, nonmetallic mining and pharmaceuticals to resume operations.”, Reuters, May 26, 2020
The Philippines
“Philippines capital emerges from lockdown into economic uncertainty, fears of second wave of infection. After 76 days of a coronavirus quarantine that shut down the Philippines’ economic heart and kept millions under virtual house arrest, Metro Manila will spring abruptly back to life on Monday with the easing of restrictions on transport and work. The change has been met with both relief and trepidation: businesses cheer the restarting of an economy on life support, but analysts worry that the rate of Covid-19 infection in the country is still too high and easing restrictions might lead to a spike in new cases.”, South China Morning Post, May 31, 2020
Poland
“Poland is still under lockdown due to the coronavirus, however the government consequently introduces new phases of its easing strategy launched in March (the restrictions have been gradually eased since late April). Since 30 May, under the new relaxed rules, Poles are no longer required to wear protection masks when outdoors in public places. On May 18 the government allowed consumer services, including hotels, food service, rehabilitation and beauty centers. The government maintained travel bans, school closures and a shutdown of Polish borders. Schools are expected to remain closed until the end of June when children also start the summer holidays, while borders will remain effectively closed until at least mid-June.”, Gabor Kaczmarczyk, Your Concierge, Budapest
Portugal
“Portugal to (Slightly) Delay Lisbon Malls Reopening as Virus Cases Increase: Malls in the area will remain closed until June 4, while they will reopen on June 1 in the rest of the country as planned, Prime Minister Antonio Costa said at a press conference on Friday. Portugal on Friday reported the biggest daily increase in coronavirus cases in three weeks due to new infections in the region”, Bloomberg, May 29, 2020
Saudi Arabia
“Saudi Arabia to end curfew on June 21, except in Mecca: state news agency
Saudi Arabia will revise curfew times this week, and lift it entirely across the Kingdom with the exception of the holy city of Mecca starting June 21, state news agency reported in a statement early on Tuesday.”, Reuters, May 25, 2020
Singapore
“If local virus transmission levels remain low and businesses put in place the necessary precautions, a second phase that includes the gradual resumption of social activities and dining out at eateries could start before the end of June, said Minister for National Development Lawrence Wong. The government will then render a decision after assessing the first two weeks of phase one, which begins June 2, Wong said at an online press conference on Thursday. Broadly speaking, phase two will entail the resumption of a wider range of activities and we expect almost the entire economy to reopen by the start of phase two,” he added. Higher-risk activities and venues such as religious congregations, large-scale events, bars and cinemas will require discussions with stakeholders and may not be able to start immediately. “We wanted to take a more cautious approach for activities in these areas to resume,” Wong said. In the second phase, households may be able to receive up to five visitors per day. Within hawker centers and restaurants, tables will have to be kept at least one meter apart and limited to no more than five people in phase two. Retail outlets, gyms and swimming pools and dining in at restaurants are included in the second phase, as are social activities and family gatherings in small groups.”, Bloomberg, May 28, 2020
South Korea
“More than 500 schools closed again Friday to students after briefly reopening, as South Korea moves to stamp out a resurgence of the coronavirus in the capital, Seoul, and its surrounding metropolitan area. Parks, art galleries, museums and theaters operated by the government in the Seoul metropolitan area — home to about half the country’s population of nearly 52 million — have also been closed to the public for the next two weeks. Government hosted events in the metropolitan area will be canceled or postponed as well, Health Minister Park Neung-hoo said Thursday. The authorities have recommended that private academies and internet cafes there close too until June 14.” CNN, May 29, 2020
“Bridging Culture Worldwide has announced the results of a targeted bilingual survey of how South Korean companies view opportunities for F&B growth and expansion in 2020 and 2021. The first of its kind survey was conducted by BCW and Tierra Advisors—both advocates, long engaged in South Korean business and market entry. BCW Founder and CEO Don Southerton noted, ‘The study was conducted to gauge the overall market mood and more specifically future F&B growth plans in response to the uncertainty and disruption of COVID-19.’ As background, BCW and Tierra point out that unlike most of the world, Korea appears to have reined in the outbreak without some of the strict lockdown strategies deployed by many other countries in the world. Still, the economy and businesses like restaurants and coffee shops have suffered. Although Korea never experienced mandated widespread closures, Koreans pro-actively stayed away from eateries and Starbucks. The restaurants did remain open, eagerly waiting for customers who seldom came. Fast forward, Korea’s everyday life today is now resembling something closer to normal. There are lines outside restaurants during lunchtime; malls are bustling, and the streets are busier. As a positive indicator, major Korean food brands like SPC have also recently announced plans to open new locations as well as add additional western fast-casual brands.
Sri Lanka
“Sri Lanka plans to reopen its tourism sector on Aug. 1 by allowing only small groups of visitors to begin with, a tourism official said on Sunday. A limited number of small groups from around the world would be allowed to visit from August and stay in approved five-star hotels that have put strict safety measures in place, Fernando told Reuters.
He confirmed that tourists will be required to carry a COVID-19-free certificate issued either by their governments or a reputed agency, as reported by the Sunday Times which quoted Sri Lanka’s Tourism Ministry Secretary S. Hettiaarachchi. Tourists would also need to wait on arrival at the airport for coronavirus testing.”, Reuters, May 31, 2020
Spain
“After ten weeks under one of the world’s strictest lockdowns Spain is opening up again. Residents of Madrid and Barcelona can this week meet socially as well as patronise non-essential shops and café terraces. Under the complicated three-stage deconfinement plan of Pedro Sánchez, the Socialist prime minister, much of the rest of the country is a step further on, with beaches and shopping centres opening. The relaxation reflects the virus’s retreat.”, The Economist, May 26, 2020
“The Spanish government has assured foreign tourists that they will not be forced to self-isolate for 14 days when the country throws open its doors to holidaymakers at the start of July. In an effort to urge visitors from abroad to plan a return to the country’s beaches, Arancha González Laya, the foreign minister, tweeted emojis of a bikini, sunglasses and a suitcase and the message: ‘In July we will gradually open Spain to international tourists, lift the quarantine, ensure the highest standards of health safety. We look forward to welcoming you!’ The news that quarantine measures would not apply followed an announcement on Sunday by Pedro Sánchez, the prime minister, that borders would reopen to foreign tourists in July.”, The Sunday Times, May 26, 2020
Thailand
“Many businesses in Thailand will re-open on June 1, including exhibition centers, amulet markets, massage parlors, childcare centers, fitness centers, sport complexes, beauty clinics, bowling alleys, dance halls, water sport centers, performance art and movie theaters, and zoos. The government still remains the curfew in place to prevent the drinking alcohol group but shortens the time to 11 pm – 3 am as the situation improved. So, I believe this re-opening period will help ease franchisees to be back on their businesses. However, each business has to provide hand sanitizer and practice social distancing in the store. There are some businesses that are still waiting to be reopened in the last phrase, in mid of June, including group steaming, bathing, and facial massages, and sport competitions. International air travel is allowed on June 30. Currently, only domestic flights are allowed to operate in Thailand.” Thanyathorn Voravongsatit (Nan), Commercial Specialist, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bangkok
“Thais took in a movie and enjoyed foot massages in a welcome return on Monday to some pampering and popular pastimes as coronavirus restrictions further eased and new infection numbers remained low. Shopping malls stayed open later, a curfew was shortened and more businesses reopened, among them fitness clubs, spas, traditional massage centres and cinemas.”, Reuters, June 1, 2020
United Kingdom
“Lockdown restrictions in the UK are being lifted gradually, but as you would expect there are those that think that the changes are too little and too slow – and others who think its too much, too quickly! One example which is a major issue for F&B brands is the requirement of 2m for social distancing – compared to 1m in a number of other countries – this has a huge impact on restaurant layouts, and potential revenue. Cleaning franchises are very popular currently!”, Iain Martin, QFP, International Franchise Consultant, The Franchising Centre, United Kingdom
“British stock markets soared this morning, with the retail sector leading the charge after Boris Johnson’s announcement last night. The prime minister confirmed that outdoor markets and car showrooms would be able to reopen next week and all other non-essential shops would follow suit on June 15.”, The Times of London, May 26, 2020
“760 reopenings this week for takeaway/delivery. The highest number of reopenings came from McDonald’s, followed by KFC UK & Ireland and Costa Coffee. New entries to the list include: Ottolenghi & NOPI & ROVI, Bewiched Coffee, Bar Douro and Brindisa Kitchens. Reopened sites to date account for 21% of the brands’ combined estates totalling 13,000 sites”, from a LinkedIn post by Peter Backman on May 28, 2020
“Wagamama aims to reopen 67 restaurants for deliveries by end of June: The pan-Asian restaurant chain launched a trial at five of its delivery kitchens earlier this month. It will reopen 24 sites this Thursday, with a further 20 reopening on Thursday May 28. The chain said it hopes to have 49 sites open for delivery by the start of June, with this expanding to 67 by the end of the month.” Belfast Telegraph, May 19, 2020
Articles on Moving Through and Past the COVIF-19 Crisis
Three game-changing ideas for our post-pandemic world, John Thornhill, The Financial Times, May 28, 2020
https://bit.ly/3GameChanginIdeas
“Coronavirus won’t kill globalisation – but a shakeup is inevitable”, new study by the World Economic Forum as reported by The Conversation on May 24, 2020 at this link:
https://bit.ly/ConversationGVCs
“Franchisor and Franchisee Crisis Management Post-CoV: The pandemic crisis of corona (Covid-19) has recently impacted the franchising industry in ways that have never been imagined and that brings up some very interesting questions that need to be answered by all companies in the franchising industry. How can franchisors and franchisees manage a crisis of this proportion?”, excellent article on managing businesses post COVID-19 by Sean Ngo, Co-Founder and CEO of VF Franchise Consulting, Ho Chi Minh City
https://bit.ly/VFCCOVIDCrisisMgmt
About US
Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS) provides a complete International solution for U.S. businesses Going Global. From initial global market research and country prioritization, to developing new international markets and providing operational support around the world. Our U.S. based executive team has living experience living and working in many countries. Our Associate network on the ground overseas covers 40+ countries. EGS is also known for our extensive country, cultural and sector research and publications, including our quarterly GlobalVue™ country ranking chart.
Find out more about the services we provide U.S. companies Going Global at: www.edwardsglobal.com
William Edwards has 46 years of international operations, development, executive and entrepreneurial experience and has lived in 7 countries. With experience in the franchise, oil and gas, information technology and management consulting sectors, he has directed projects on-site in Alaska, Asia, Europe and the Middle and Near East. Founded in 2001, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS) takes U.S. businesses global and currently has activity in 25 countries. Our Clients are all consumer-faced brands.
William Edwards, CFE, is CEO and Global Advisor to Chief Executives, of Edwards Global Services (EGS). Contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com or +1 949 224 3896.
EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter
Issue 4, Monday, May 18, 2020
By William (Bill) Edwards, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)
“Worry is like a rocking chair: It gives you something to do but never gets you anywhere.” humorist Erma Bombeck.
“Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood. Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less.” Marie Curie
Introduction
The goal of this newsletter is to keep the reader up to date on the economic and business situation in key trading countries. We monitor 30+ countries, 25 daily international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing environment. Our team on the ground covers 43 countries and provides us with updates about what is happening in their specific countries.
Please send us your input and perspectives so that we can publish a balanced view about the world every other week. Our contact information is at the bottom of this newsletter. You may opt out from receiving this biweekly global business update at the bottom of this blog.
The Focus of This Issue
This issue focuses on what is happening in 28 countries that impact consumer spending. The three themes of this issue are the continuing reopening of businesses around the world, travel openings and restrictions and a new section at the end that has links to special reports from several global information sources such as McKinsey’s May 15th ‘Short List’ of global updates at this link:
https://bit.ly/May152020newletter
The Latest GlobalVue™ Country Ranking Charts
We just issued our first quarterly GlobalVue™ country ranking since the novel Coronavirus outbreak. We’ve added a dual ranking, which first ranks countries on all parameters and then ranks countries on how they are expected to emerge post pandemic. The GlobalVue™ country ranking chart has been issued quarterly since 2001.
https://bit.ly/EGSGlobalVue052020
International Travel Updates
“Countries and destinations are continuing to implement additional health screening maries at their borders, including temperature checks, COVID-19 tests, questions on itineraries and 14-day quarantine periods.” This includes Australia, Canada, China, Hong Kong, Ireland, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan and the United Kingdom.” Lonely Planet, May 15, 2020.
https://apple.news/AGD9wpcNWQNadUjlTMchQzg
China, South Korea consult Japan on easing business-travel curbs: China and South Korea have consulted Japan about easing border controls on business travelers to help revive business activities, the Yomiuri newspaper reported on Sunday without citing sources.”, Reuters, May 20, 2020
“Disneyland Shanghai reopens in test case for recovery: Strong demand from Chinese consumers as park limits visitors to less than a third of capacity. Disneyland Shanghai has reopened to a limited number of visitors kept apart by strict social distancing rules, as the group searches for a global recovery blueprint. The resumption of business on Monday after three months of coronavirus-induced closure marks the first Disney park to attempt a comeback after closure due to the Covid-19 crisis. The success of the reopening will be closely monitored as a potential model for Disney’s other venues that span from California to Hong Kong, Paris to Tokyo, as well as for other large theme parks around the world.”, The Financial Times, May 11, 2020
Emirates is resuming flights to London, Frankfurt, Paris, Milan, Madrid, Chicago, Toronto, Sydney and Melbourne on May 21st
https://apple.news/A5sXdLD01RGW3zmWhrkpvQw
Very good news for global brands in airport locations: Lagardère, the global airport brand operator announce that it has reopened retail stores at Amsterdam Schiphol airport. They have also reopened 9 Relay stores in France. 16 Relay store have now reopened in Europe.
“Lufthansa plans 1,800 round trips a week by the end of June: German flagship carrier Lufthansa on Thursday said it would be offering 1,800 round trips a week to more than 130 destinations around the world by the end of June.”, Reuters, May 14, 2020
https://apple.news/AGUw7GMGDQPGyD_bR1tWxB
“Chinese carriers restart their engines: In the first week of May, a holiday in China, capacity was scheduled to be only 10% lower than in the same period a year ago, estimates the capa Centre for Aviation, a consultancy. In America, meanwhile, it was 73% lower. As Western rivals slash flights, China Eastern this month claimed the title of the world’s biggest airline by current seat capacity, according to oag, an aviation-data firm.” The Economist, May 7, 2020
“Summer Travel Europe: Many Countries Plan To Be Open” As European lockdowns start to lift across the continent and land borders reopen, tourism is set to rise from the COVID-19 ashes in time for summer holiday travel. Countries with similar corona infection levels plan to welcome tourists, guided by strict EU safety and hygiene recommendations.”, Forbes, May 14, 2020
https://apple.news/AFBZ4Dw08QDqRef0rub1nHg
“How the Coronavirus Pandemic Will Change the Way We Travel: Trips will return, but they won’t be the same.”, Architectural Digest, May 13, 2020.
https://apple.news/APuGJmbrVS3iNXqEmkKh2zA
“Ryanair is planning to reintroduce 1,000 flights a day by July 1, with passengers undergoing temperature checks at airports to combat the spread of coronavirus. Europe’s busiest airline said today that 40 per cent of its flight schedule would be restored within seven weeks, subject to government restrictions on travel across the Continent being lifted.”, The Times of London, May 12, 2020
“9 Aspects To Consider Before Traveling Overseas Again: While being grounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, this million-mile traveler considers what’s going to be needed before he will feel safe traveling again.”, Forbes, May 8, 2020
https://apple.news/A2BBJftP9SJWfvHFYeJVEoA
Argentina
“Argentina extends quarantine for capital, relaxes elsewhere: Argentina extended until May 24 a quarantine for its capital Buenos Aires but relaxed the restriction aimed at slowing the spread of the new coronavirus elsewhere in the country, President Alberto Fernandez said on Friday.”, Reuters, May 9, 2020
Australia
“The Federal government has unveiled a thee stage plan to ease COVID-19 social distancing restrictions over the next two months, with reviews to occur at three-week intervals to assess the plan’s progress, according to a media report. Each stage will open more facilities for business, pleasure, and recreation, and increases the number of people which may gather in one place provided COVID-19 protocols including 1.5-metre physical distancing and good hand hygiene are maintained. Employees will be encouraged to continue working from home if possible. Intra- and interstate travel restrictions will also be progressively eased, but international travel beyond New Zealand and some Pacific Islands is unlikely to resume anytime soon.” Jason Gehrke, Managing Director, Franchise Advisory Centre, Brisbane
“On 26 April 2020 the Australian Government launched the COVIDSafe app to assist with contact tracing of COVID-19 cases in the community. Since its release more than 5.3 million Australians have downloaded the app.”, MST Lawyers, mst.com.au
“Australia’s biggest beer drinkers prepare for the end of lockdown with 300,000 pints: Australia’s thirsty far north is preparing for the party of the decade as a convoy carrying 175,000 litres of beer — 300,000 pints — heads there for the reopening of pubs next week. The Northern Territory capital, Darwin, whose population of 132,000 are Australia’s biggest beer drinkers, is expected to be the first to emerge from the coronavirus lockdown. Michael Gunner, the territory’s chief minister, ordered his office to arrange a huge road convoy that is trucking beer the 1,600 miles from Adelaide to Darwin in readiness for the expected opening of pubs next week.”, The Times of London, May 8, 2020
Brazil
“Our president is allowing reopening flexibility, but not every city is making use of it. Today’s headlines say that contamination in our city, Belo Horizonte, is 10x slower than São Paulo due to social isolation.” Ursula Aleixo, Business Director, Fastdezine Team, Bello Horizonte
Cambodia
“Thailand’s CP Group will oversee the Cambodian debut of 7-Eleven convenience stores next year under a master franchise agreement with 7-Eleven Inc, the US subsidiary of 7-Eleven Japan Co. CP All Plc, the conglomerate’s SET-listed retail arm, has concluded a deal with the US firm to operate 7-Eleven stores through CP All (Cambodia) Co beginning in 2021. The first outlet will open in Phnom Penh, a spokeswoman for the Japanese retail group Seven & I Holdings Co said.”, Contributed by Paul Jones, Barrister, Solicitor & Trade-mark Agent, Jones & Co., Toronto, Ontario
Canada
For an excellent update on the status of the provincial reopening plans for restaurants, cafes and other food service establishments across Canada, please go to the link below for the Cassels Brock law firm update:
https://bit.ly/CBCanadaReopening
“McDonald’s will restart take-out services at 30 restaurants in Canada, weeks after shutting down all of its stores in the country due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the company’s Canadian unit said.”, Reuters, May 14, 2020
“Wage Subsidy extended to the end of August: The Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy program will be extended to the end of August. The program — which covers 75 per cent of an eligible company’s payroll, up to a maximum of $847 per week per employee — originally was set to expire next month. Companies that saw their revenues drop by 15 per cent in March or 30 per cent in April and May are eligible for the program.”, Canadian Franchise Association, May 15, 2020
Mainland China
“China’s 2020 economic growth target in focus as Beijing set to convene National People’s Congress: Speculation is mounting over whether China will announce a growth target for 2020 at its annual parliamentary gathering (this coming week), after the coronavirus outbreak delayed the event and lashed the economy.”, South China Morning Post, May 6, 2020
https://apple.news/AGwO8ki6xTXmADsRyAVPMhQ
“China starts exempting some foreign business executives from its coronavirus travel ban. It’s the latest sign that China is taking steps to reopen its borders for business.”, Fortune, May 12, 2020
https://apple.news/AVaEzrvVMR4yl4TTbUtf_aQ
“China’s recovery is on course: Despite external headwinds, UBS CIO expects China’s GDP growth to recover gradually from 2Q thanks to pent-up demand and stronger policy support. UBS CIO Global Wealth Management expects infrastructure investment to be the main growth driver from 2Q, buoyed by greater funding support from larger special local government bond issuance. In 1Q, up to CNY 1.08trn of special LGBs have been issued to fund qualified infrastructure projects, and the full-year quota could reach at least CNY 3trn.” UBS report compliments of Andrew Low, CEPA, CTFA, Senior Vice President – Wealth Management, Certified Exit Planning Advisor, UBS Financial Services, Inc
The global law firm, DLA Piper, recently released a very detailed China tax and legal slide update this past week which can be viewed and downloaded at the following link:
“McDonald’s China is hosting an online job-recruitment fair for the first time as the fast-food giant eyes the addition of 1,000 new locations over the next two years. A livestreaming job fair will be held today and aims to hire and train 1,700 additional store managers to oversee new outlets. A virtual tour of the quick service chain restaurant will also be offered for potential job applicants to learn about the company’s working environment. It operates 3,500 storefronts in China’s mainland as of February this year.” Also from Paul Jones, Barrister, Solicitor & Trade-mark Agent, Jones & Co., Toronto, Ontario
https://www.shine.cn/biz/company/2005158161/
“Fast-forward China: How COVID-19 is accelerating five key trends shaping the Chinese economy: Events expected to play out in the Chinese economy over the next several years have been compressed into a short few months. Over the last few months, COVID-19 has spread across the world, uniting humanity in a shared experience that has highlighted the vulnerability of our societies. As the first country to grapple with the crisis, China has been on the frontlines both of post-COVID-19 economic recovery, and of the societal changes the pandemic has precipitated.”, McKinsey Highlights, May 6, 2020
https://apple.news/AELPrgE6qPtyv8HFJOTWW7Q
Denmark
“Fast in, first out: Denmark leads lockdown exit: Four weeks after Denmark began easing its lockdown, Danes on Monday returned to cafes and restaurants, confident that the coronavirus outbreak is under control.”, Reuters, May 18, 2020
Dominican Republic
“An article in a DR publication which included an interview with the “Father of Tourism” in the DR – Frank Rainieri. Frank is the Founder & Chairman of Grupo Puntacana, which is the #1 tourist destination in the DR, and includes hotels, villas, residences, marinas, stores, restaurants, etc. Frank said he was optimistic about the recovery of the tourism sector in the DR and in the Caribbean overall. He noted just this week alone 21 different international airlines have contacted him requesting when they can resume flights into Punta Cana (Frank owns the private Punta Cana airport, which is the country’s busiest). He expects to resume the extensive operations of the Grupo in June. Source: “Mercado Daily” digital news publication for the DR, May 7, 2020. Bob Jones, Chief International Officer, Edwards Global Services, Inc.
Egypt
“IMF approves $2.77 billion in emergency pandemic aid for Egypt. The International Monetary Fund on Monday said its executive board approved $2.77 billion in emergency financing to help Egypt grapple with the new coronavirus pandemic that has brought tourism to a standstill and triggered major capital flight.”, Reuters, May 11, 2020
“Egypt extends nationwide nighttime curfew until end of Ramadan: Egypt extended a nationwide nighttime curfew until end of the holy month of Ramadan (May 23rd) to slow the spread of the new coronavirus, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said on Thursday.”, Reuters, May 7, 2020
Germany
“Apple Stores in Germany next to begin reopening on May 11: Apple Stores in Germany will be among the next to reopen after extended closures in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Following reopenings across South Korea, Austria, and Australia in recent weeks, Germany’s 15 Apple Stores will all reopen on May 11 at 11:00 A.M. Germany hasn’t mitigated coronavirus infections to the extent of other regions.”, 9T05Mac, May 8, 2020
https://apple.news/ACT4rLu_eS1mLaD6LDy9V7w
“Germany to Reopen Most of Economy in Coming Weeks as Coronavirus Recedes: Germany announced a further phasing out of its lockdown, putting itself at the front of a group of large European countries feeling their way back toward economic normality after slowing the spread of the coronavirus.”, The Wall Street Journal, May 6, 2020
https://apple.news/AEHAv626wT9Oezv_eGP-nJw
Greece
“Greece reopened the Acropolis, museums and other major tourist attractions as the coronavirus lockdown eased in bright sunshine in Athens on Monday.”, Reuters, May 18, 2020
Hong Kong
On May 13, the global U.S.-based Snap Fitness® franchise group reopened its 6 Hong Kong gyms and announced the award of another franchise for Hong Kong.
“Hong Kong business travelers prioritised in economy relaunch once pandemic is defeated. Attracting business travelers will be the top priority when Hong Kong reopens its economy to the world as part of the city’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, the commerce minister has said.” South China Morning Post, May 14, 2020
India
“The current Lockdown will now end on May 31st. Some restrictions will be in place though. The Government has already opened offices and shops with restriction on number of people (Like 30-40%). Trains have started to run.”, Rajeev Manchanda, Inventure India, updated May 18, 2020
“Modi unveils $266bn stimulus package to revive Indian economy: The package is equivalent to about 10 per cent of India’s gross domestic product. “Coronavirus is going to be part of our lives for a long time, but we can’t let our lives revolve around it,” he said.”, The Financial Times, May 12, 2020
Italy
“Italy will welcome foreigners to save tourism industry: Italy will open its borders to European visitors on June 3 to lure back German holidaymakers and save its tourism industry despite the threat of another wave of contagion. It is the latest in a series of steps to roll back Italy’s lockdown, which was introduced on March 10 to quell an outbreak that has killed more than 31,000 people. “We’re facing a calculated risk, knowing that the epidemiological curve could rise again,” Giuseppe Conte, the prime minister, said.”, The Times of London, May 18, 2020
“Things are slowly coming back on-line. Restaurants & Bars are open for take-out and delivery, from the 18th they will be able to welcome customers as long as they stick to guidelines: ample space for social distancing, hygiene requirements and masks, plexiglass shields and behavior manuals for staff. Similar regs apply to other businesses where people work closely together; controls on building sites have also been increased. There are strict regulations on number of people present at any one time, how many people can travel together to work, disinfecting (2 times per day), masks worn at all times, social distances when working or using communal spaces. Anyone entering the site will have their temperature measured. All workers will need to follow a hygiene/guidelines course and all areas require appropriate signage. Schools will not be reopening before September. Under Phase 2, Italians are allowed to travel within the same region and visit relatives without showing special documentation, exercise outside, hold funerals with 15 or fewer attendees, and reopen bike and scooter shops to alleviate demand on public transportation.” Andrew Shearn, ADEA Group, Milan
Japan
“Japan Largely Lifts Coronavirus State of Emergency: Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe lifted a state of emergency in much of the country outside of the capital and credited voluntary restrictions for bringing down new coronavirus infections sharply, Wall Street Journal, May 14, 2020
Malaysia
“Malaysia on Sunday extended its conditional lockdown for a further four weeks to June 9.”, South China Morning Post, May 10, 2020
Mexico
“With the economy in freefall, the question facing Mexico’s central bankers is how much to cut interest rates. Analysts are expecting a reduction of half a percentage point, to 5.5%, a four-year low. That will do little to stem the bleeding. The peso is trading near an all-time low against the dollar. (Of 42 major, national economies tracked by the Economist Intelligence Unit, our sister company, Mexico is expected to fare the worst this year.).” The Economist, May 13, 2020.
https://apple.news/AlEF9C4q5S66fTCWz1RQLLA
New Zealand
May 13th was the first day at level 2 with all shops and restaurants open. Huge queues for haircuts. Malls are also open. Schools soon. Most people continue to work from home. Stewart Germann, Stewart Germann Law Office, Auckland Please go to this link for Stewart’s latest reopening advice:
https://bit.ly/StewartGermannNZReopening
Panama
“With a high increase in the number of COVID-19 cases, the situation in Panama is not good. Some restaurants are just delivering. Gyms are closed. Hopefully at the end of May we will see more businesses operating but with lots of restrictions.”, Jose Enrique Tellez, Business Consultant, Panama City
“Panama’s Copa Airlines expects to fly 40% of its usual flights by December: Panama’s Copa Airlines expects to resume 40% of its usual flights by December, the company said on Wednesday, the latest carrier to predict a slow recovery in traffic due to the coronavirus crisis.’, Reuters, May 6, 2020
Singapore
“Singapore partly reopens despite rise in cases: Singaporeans are able to get a haircut at the barber or pop in to their favorite bakery as the government loosened restrictions.”, ABC News, May 13, 2020
“Groomed but still grounded: Hairdressers reopen during Singapore lockdown: Long queues formed outside hairdressers in Singapore on Tuesday as the government eased some restrictions of a nationwide lockdown, although any styles beyond a trim would have to wait.”, Reuters, May 12, 2020
South Korea
“‘Smart Work’ and COVID-19 Transforming the Workplace in South Korea: In February and March government agencies and companies across South Korea opted to keep workers home in what can be seen as a mass experiment with the remote work system. One issue that did not hamper work from home was Korea’s Internet infrastructure robustness even as the demand for telecommuting solutions rapidly increased. As most of Korea has returned to working on-site, the big question remains open as to whether working remotely and adopting “smart work” systems will become an option and part of the new normal.”, Don Southerton, Branding In Asia, May 11, 2020
“South Korea’s Early Coronavirus Wins Dim After Rash of New Cases: South Korea, which largely succeeded in quelling the spread of the coronavirus, is back on the defensive, with Seoul’s bars and clubs ordered closed, as the country reported its biggest one-day increase in new infections in a month.”, Wall Street Journal, May 10, 2020
Spain
“Spain aims to reopen borders to tourism in late June: Tourism-dependent Spain aims to reopen borders to visitors around the end of June as its coronavirus lockdown fully unwinds, a minister said on Monday, in a much-needed boost for the ravaged travel sector.”, Reuters, May 18, 2020
https://apple.news/AnI2QxEozTlys8AbDn52jww
“From May 11, F&B places will be able to open for terrace service (with 50% occupancy reduction) and also will be allowed to continue with their home delivery and pick-up services. From last week, they have set 3 daily separate groups to go out of the house: 1) People over 14 till 69 yrs old doing sports or walking (6am to 10am and 20 to 23h); 2) Walking the kids under 14 (12 to 19h); and 3) over 70 yrs old (10-12am and 19 to 20h). From May 11, they will allow get togethers of a maximum 10 people. Unfortunately, no news about business travelling yet.”, Tarsicio Merin, CEO, Almanor International, Madrid
“Spain will require all arriving travelers to quarantine for 14 days: Traveling to Spain in the near-term will require a mandatory period in isolation. On May 12, Spain announced that it was set to impose a mandatory 14-day quarantine for international arrivals. Beginning May 15, Spain will require that all passengers arriving from international destinations self-quarantine for two weeks.” The Points Guy, May 12, 2020
Switzerland
“This week Switzerland became the first country in Europe to end restrictions on its hospitality sector — offering a peek, albeit through the lens of the wealthy alpine state’s relatively rarefied dining scene, of what future lies ahead for restaurants, cafés and bars in a post-Covid-19 world. Restarting the hospitality sector is a key priority for Bern as the country emerges from lockdown — a message the government has pushed hard this week. More than 260,000 people are employed in the hospitality sector. In many cantons, more people work in restaurants than in shops.”, Financial Times, May 14th, 2020
Thailand
“In Bangkok, street food and takeaway alcohol are back on the menu but nightlife stays on ice. Hair salons, restaurants and even street-food stalls in Bangkok’s Chinatown came back to life this week, albeit with social distancing in place, as Thailand eased its lockdown rules and an alcohol ban after making progress in controlling the spread of the virus.”, South China Morning Post, May 5, 2020
During a recent call with Stephen Anderson, Senior Commercial Officer, and Commercial Specialist Thanyathorn Voravongsatit at the U.S. Commercial Service post in Bangkok, they mentioned ‘Thailand 4.0’. This is the government program to go from Thailand 1.0 agriculture to Thailand 2.0 light industry to Thailand 3.0 heavy industry to Thailand 4.0 Prosperity, Security and Sustainability. You can download detailed information on Thailand 4.0 at this link:
https://thaiembdc.org/thailand-4-0-2/
Turkey
“Turkey’s reopening: malls before schools: Turkey has the ninth-highest number of confirmed covid-19 cases worldwide. But the country has managed to limit the spread of the virus over the past month and so is moving to ease its lockdown. The government has already lifted travel bans in some provinces. On May 10th the elderly, who were placed under a strict curfew at the start of the pandemic, were allowed to go out for a few hours for the first time in nearly two months. Everyone else was ordered to stay home.”, The Economist, May 10, 2020
United Arab Emirates
“Dubai businesses ask for more state help to survive coronavirus. Proposals include reduction of utility costs, customs duties and expats’ residency fees. Dubai’s private sector has proposed government interventions including state subsidised loans, assistance in covering salaries and lower taxes, to help businesses survive the fallout from coronavirus. Representatives of the Gulf hub’s family-owned business community called for the government to speed up payments to contractors and suppliers and to cut sales tax from 5 per cent to 2 per cent.” Financial Times, May 12, 2020
United Kingdom
“Rishi Sunak (UK Chancellor) has announced that the government’s wage-subsidy scheme will be extended until the end of October, but employers will have to help bear the cost. The chancellor announced that from August furloughed workers will be able to return to work part-time with their wages topped up by the government. The Treasury has decided not to cut the overall level of the wage subsidy scheme, which stands at 80 per cent of people’s wages up to £2,500 a month.”, The Times of London, May 12, 2020
“McDonald’s has announced plans to reopen a further 15 restaurants on May 20th which will offer drive-thru services. Each car will be limited to a £25 order and will be encouraged to pay by contactless payment methods.”, LAD Bible, May 12, 2020
https://apple.news/AgZ7OgIAGTGeR76oDKUWvJA
“Britain’s 5.8m small businesses are in the eye of the economic storm created by the coronavirus outbreak. Entrepreneurs pride themselves on resilience and adaptability, but the past two months have thrown up challenges few could have anticipated. The government has responded with support packages providing loans, grants and equity investments for businesses of all sizes. Under the job retention scheme, the state pays 80% of the wages of furloughed workers until the end of next month.”, The Times of London, May 9, 2020
https://apple.news/AgBhcD04WR-6ASsJYbPSTBQ
“No breakfast buffet and smartphones as keys: what London hotels will be like after lockdown: Guests arriving at London’s top hotels famed for their warm welcomes are likely to have to check in online in advance and go straight to their rooms unaccompanied to help keep face-to face contact to a minimum once they reopen after lockdown.”, The Evening Standard, May 7, 2020
Vietnam
“International tourists will come (to Vietnam) but clearly in much less numbers than before. Most if not all international flights are not allowed still though this may open up in the next few weeks hopefully. The main issue is where the planes go to and come from as some countries have been hit hard and Vietnam will limit or not allow flights to/from those countries. When international flights are allowed into Vietnam, it will come with extensive testing at the airports and also 14 day quarantines for some that come from specific countries (at this point do not know who they will require quarantining). Countries like the US, UK, Italy, and Spain are likely going to require some sort of quarantining if allowed to come for the foreseeable future and until these countries can get a handle on the coronavirus.”, Sean Ngo, CEO and Co-Founder, VF Franchise Consulting, Ho Chi Minh Coty
Articles on Moving Through the COVIF-19 Times
One of the most important things that people and businesses can be doing these days is maintaining relationships around the world through calls, video conferences and email messages. We like the article by Ernesto Zuniga with the Avantiis Group at the following link on the value of global relationships:
https://bit.ly/GlobalRelationships
Recently the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published their 2020 and 2021 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth projections for the world in the form of two interactive maps which you can access at the link below. 2020 is not good, of course. But 2021 is projected to show high GDP growth across almost all countries.
“The Great Unwinding: Covid-19 and the regionalisation of global supply chains: A report by The Economist Intelligence Unit The coronavirus pandemic will fundamentally reshape trade, accelerating the trend towards shortening supply chains. For many multinationals, regional supply chains offer resilience and the flexibility to shift production of key components from one location to another, making it a trend that is likely to endure post-pandemic. In a world of increasing uncertainty the pandemic also raises questions around the storage of final goods and critical components”. Download this important report at this link:
https://pages.eiu.com/May-20-Businesses-and-Covid19-registration-page.html
“The world’s food system has so far weathered the challenge of covid-19.” The report at the link below is a comprehensive look at how the world’s food supply chain is performing during the COVID-19 crisis.
https://bit.ly/FoodSupplyReport
“Charting the path to the next normal: A daily chart that helps explain a changing world—during the pandemic and beyond.”, McKinsey
In Summary
There is progress in reopening business in the Asia Pacific and in Europe. The Americas and the Middle East remain largely closed down. Air travel will continue to be problematic for the next couple of months at least.
About US
Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS) provides a complete International solution for U.S. businesses Going Global. From initial global market research and country prioritization, to developing new international markets and providing operational support around the world. Our U.S. based executive team has living experience living and working in many countries. Our Associate network on the ground overseas covers 40+ countries. EGS is also known for our extensive country, cultural and sector research and publications, including the quarterly GlobalVue™ country ranking chart.
Find out more about the services we provide at: www.edwardsglobal.com
William Edwards is an executive with 46 years of international operations, development, executive and entrepreneurial experience and has lived in 7 countries. With experience in the franchise, oil and gas, information technology and management consulting sectors, he has directed projects on-site in Alaska, Asia, Europe and the Middle and Near East. Founded in 2001, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS) takes U.S. businesses global and currently has activity in 25 countries. Our Clients are all consumer-faced brands.
William Edwards, CFE, is CEO and Global Advisor to Chief Executives, of Edwards Global Services (EGS). Contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com or +1 949 224 3896.
Our World’s Update – Monday, March 30th, 2020
We are monitoring 22 countries, 25 daily international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing environment. Based on decades of international business experience, we believe it is critical to remember two famous British sayings:
“Keep Calm and Carry On”
“Keep Calm and Breathe Deeply”
A month ago, I gave a talk to a local California business group on what life was like in a locked down China. I sited the quarantine at home for over 40 days of our Beijing based managing director and his family. His 8-year-old daughter was kept inside for these 40+ days and was going to her international school online.
This event has changed how Chinese view working from home, as they did not see this as viable before. The result of millions going to offices, is a huge number of high-rise office buildings in big cities. However, now remote work is looking good. My daughter in Cincinnati has been trying to get her company to let her work from home for years. As of today, she has been told it is mandatory to work from home through April.
By the way, our Beijing managing director’s daughter will be back at school with her friends in April. Meanwhile, my 9-year-old granddaughter in Cincinnati is just beginning her own online education from her home.
Never have we seen a disruption like the one caused by Coronavirus in our history. As of this today, “OpenTable bookings at restaurants worldwide are down by over 80% from a month ago. Retail footfall is down 50-80%, depending on the country”, Financial Times, March 22, 2020. Other franchises where customers gather like gyms are 60-100% shut down. Burger King, Dairy Queen, KFC, McDonalds and Starbucks closed over 7,500 restaurants in China last month. Today. 90% of these restaurants are back open.
Our U.S. restaurant clients have closed almost all their units worldwide – expect for China and Korea soon as well. Our clients are almost all going to remote working, clearing out their large offices around the U.S. They have also put into place a no ‘over water’ travel policy for the next three months. We are lucky that our company has been virtual for years. Not just the six of us in the U.S. working remotely, but also the 30+ members of our team on the ground around the world.
One of the groups we are working with to become the Italy licensee for one of our U.S. restaurant brand clients, owns and operates almost 100 restaurants in Northern Italy. They are 100% shutdown with hundreds of employees impacted.
As a Diamond Medallion frequent flyer with 2.5 million miles on Delta, it was interesting to read that Delta Air Lines will emerge as a “smaller” carrier, following the Coronavirus crisis, warns chief financial officer Paul Jacobson, as the airline prepares to wind down the majority of its schedule by April. “We’re going to be smaller coming out of this,” he told employees during an internal webinar last week.
Rod Young, global chairman of Cartridge World and chairman of Sydney-based DC Strategy Group, said “the wild card in looking forward for the Asia Pacific region is the Coronavirus pandemic and this is written in the expectation that the response by China and the rest of the world will see the community and the economy recover some normality after a significant impact on global growth and consumer habits.”
Our company’s associate for Southeast Asia, Sean Ngo, CEO and co-founder of VF Franchise Consulting, Ho Chi Minh City, says “people in Asia took the Coronavirus issue much more seriously earlier than in the West, because of their SARs experience in 2003 and the region is expected to gradually recover in the next – three to six months. Countries in Southeast Asia closed all international flights, while only allowing for domestic travel. The main concern in countries like Vietnam, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines is about the virus sneaking back into these countries from international visitors.”
An AmCham China webinar from Beijing late last week had the top China-based executives of four international companies explaining how they handled the coronavirus shutdown starting in late February. They said their order of priorities were: (1) their people; (2) their internal business; (3) their suppliers; and (4) their relationships with government regulators. Wisdom for us all in these times.
This immense disruption has slowed down new business development around the world. But it is also causing companies to evaluate their businesses, in order to fine tune operations and systems and better prepare for a brighter and stronger future.
Contact me directly at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com to learn how to protect and grow your brand in the current business climate.
Keeping ahead of the wars, economic meltdowns, and political disasters
One of our jobs for our U.S. clients is to look two to three years ahead, figure out where wars will raging, where economic meltdowns will be occurring, and where political disasters are looming – then take our clients elsewhere!
The key to successful international business is constant monitoring of the economies around the world and being ready to move quickly to higher potential and calmer countries.
Why do we need to do all this? Our company exports U.S. franchise brands.
We act as an outsourced international development department for brands such as Build-A- Bear Workshop®, Denny’s®, International Dairy Queen, Lawry’s® The Prime Rib, Massage Heights®, Everlast Fitness® and Mosquito Squad®. One of our primary tasks is helping the brands prioritize the countries they enter, focusing on countries that have the highest ROI potential for the specific brand.
Recently, the CEO of one of the brands we work with told me that our job was to look two to three years ahead, figure out where the wars will be and take them elsewhere.
It turns out this is just a little bit funny – while at the same time being quite serious.
I would restate this to looking two to three years ahead not only to determine the potential for war, but also the potential for economic meltdowns and political disasters.
This is important due to the fact that it can take two to three years to find and sign a country licensee, and then another one to two years to get the first unit of the franchise open in a country.
How do we do this? Research, research and more research.
We subscribe to 25 international business data and analysis sources. We have team members on the ground in 32 countries. And our US-based executive team collectively has 120 years of international experience living and working in over 69 countries. We have a full time Director of Research who monitors our sources and watches for trends.
That being said, there are still ‘exciting’ events that change the potential for finding investors in a target country that are ready and willing to make the new investment required to acquire the license of one of our U.S. franchise brands.
Two examples are the recent United Kingdom Brexit vote and the disintegration of Turkey as a place to do business.
No one really thought about what the consequences of actually voting to leave the European Union would be. Now we are beginning to see consequences – and all is not good. Where were the adults when this was happening?
I lived in Turkey in the mid 1980s and it was a great place to reside and to work. It was the world’s only secular, Muslim democracy. Turkey had a female Supreme Court judge before the USA, and a female Prime Minister in the 1990s. Over the past 10 years, things have gradually changed, and now Turkey is no longer secular and it is not really a democracy. The Ottoman Sultan seems to have returned after 100 years. The rapid GDP growth rate is being replaced with the rapid growth of inflation. In recent weeks, inward investment has stopped, and Turkish business people are not making any new investments. Our company has closed our office in Istanbul.
On the other side of the coin is Argentina. For several decades this country has been run by poor governments that defaulted on international loans and paid foreign franchisors their royalties in soy beans. Early in 2016 a new and radically different government came into power. In a matter of a few months they settled the long standing debt problem and made the local currency float free against the dollar. New inward investment is staggering as this first world country with a highly educated population is starved for new products, services and brands. We have started marketing U.S. franchise brands in Argentina for the first time since the mid 1990s. As a local business person told me, “The U.S. dollars have come out of the Argentinean mattresses for the first time in decades.”
At the end of the day we have learned that constant research is key to looking ahead. We have also learned that there will always be surprises. The key to successful international business is constant monitoring of the economies around the world and being ready to move quickly to higher potential and calmer countries.
EGS publishes research projects related to global business development, most notably the GlobalVue™ franchise country ranking, which has been published quarterly since 2001. The latest version of this country ranking tool can be downloaded at the following link: EGS-Dual-GlobalVue-0716.pdf
William Edwards, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc., has 40 years of international business experience. He has lived in 7 countries, worked on projects in more than 60, and has advised more than 50 U.S. companies on international development. Contact him at +1 949 375 1896, bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, or read his blog at Geowizard.biz
A version of this blog first appeared In the Fall 2016 edition of the International Executive Resources Group (IERG) Fall 2016 ‘IERG Connect’ newsletter.
Ranking Countries as Places to Franchise Into – A Few Parameters
To enter a country, a franchisor has to find a licensee, secure trademarks, sign an international license agreement, train the new licensee, travel to their country and provide on-going support in order for the licensee to start-up and grow properly to produce royalties. Therefore, the biggest challenge a franchisor has in taking their brand global is choosing the right countries that will give them the best Return On Investment (ROI).
Some of the most important parameters the franchisor needs to know are: (1) the size of the consumer market that can afford their product or service in a country; (2) the legal environment and whether it will allow them to maintain control of their brand if a problem occurs; (3) how easy is it for a foreign company/brand to enter a country and what barriers to entry exist; (4) how easy is it to open a new business in a country keeping in mind that franchises are usually new business; and (5) what is the political and economic stability – or instability – of a country.
EGS has been evaluating and ranking countries as places to franchise on a quarterly basis since the founding of our company in 2001. We developed a tool for this – GlobalVue™. The latest issue – 2nd quarter 2014 – can be downloaded at the following link: http://edwardsglobal.com/index.php/globalvue/
EGS uses more than 25 information sources to establish and monitor these key parameters. Plus, EGS has associates under contract in 32 countries that keep us up to date on their countries. This is not a one-time evaluation, but a constant research project.
Things can change quickly in a country, taking it from being open to foreign brands and lots of local company investment to a downward market where new entries will fail. And economic parameters in a country can also begin to change for the better, which makes for opportunity for those franchises who are monitoring the world consistently.
Market size for your franchised products or services is key. Lots of people in a country does not automatically make for lots of consumers who can afford to buy your franchised products or services. Take Indonesia with a population of 240 million and a strong desire for US franchises. The consumer base for most US franchises is the middle and upper class, which is about 20% of this number. Still a significant potential market!
A few years ago the World Bank studied the occurrence of new investment by companies in a country. This is a very important parameter for franchisors because we need new investment happening to find licensees who will invest in our brands. The World Bank found that countries with annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 4% or more are seeing new investment. 2-4% growth was ‘okay’. Less than 2% annual growth resulted in little new business creation. This makes sense and should be considered by franchisors looking at new countries to enter. If businesses are investing then we generally find consumers are also spending. This, or course, results in sales at businesses and royalties for franchisors.
Three years ago, Ireland was near the top of countries to franchise into. Today, unfortunately, their GDP growth rate is near zero and they are trying to recover from almost 20% unemployment. But Ireland is very receptive to US franchises and will come back in the future. So, it is important to keep up with global trends in order to focus your annual marketing on the countries most likely to give you a good ROI.
Another big challenge is how corrupt a country is because this directly impacts your licensee’s ability to do business and make a profit. And US companies are held responsible for how their licensees do business in their country under the U.S.’s Foreign Corrupt Practices Act of 1977.
Here are links for information on particular parameters mentioned in this blog posting.
(1) Political and economic stability can be research through these free online resources:
(2) The ease of starting a new business in a country is usually tied to the economic freedom to open a new business in a country.
www.freetheworld.com/release.html
www.heritage.org/index
www.fraserinstitute.org/programs-initiatives/economic-freedom.aspx
(3) Legal concerns are important to evaluate so you will know how easy or difficult it is to franchise in a country and whether you can protect your brand in the case of a problem.
www.franchise.org/IndustrySecondary.aspx?id=45874
(4) Corruption in a country impacts the ability of a business (franchise) to succeed. One of the best sources of information on country corruption can be found at the Transparency International website and on their Corruption Perception Index that measures more than 50 local parameters.
www.cpi.transparency.org/cpi2013/
