Global Business Development

Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 155, Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Posted on Mar 2nd, 2026 in Asia Pacific, Europe, India, Miscellaneous, Predictions and Trends, Professional Development, World Culture, World Economy | 0 comments

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“The more you know about the past, the better prepared you are for the future.”

Welcome to the 155th Edition of the Biweekly Global Business Update – As we have learned once again over the past few days, we cannot control wars, elections, or geopolitical rivalry. We can control preparedness, financial discipline, partner selection, and long-term orientation. The companies that will thrive in this cycle will not be those that predicted events correctly. They will be those built to withstand them, those that are resilient. That is the task in front of us as global businesspeople.

We are operating in a different global environment than we were just a few years ago. Tariff policy remains fluid. AI is accelerating competitive cycles. Capital markets are repricing risk. Wars in Europe and the Middle East continue to affect energy markets, shipping routes, defense spending, and political alignment. Tensions in Asia remain unresolved. Geopolitical fragmentation is shaping supply chains, regulatory regimes, and capital flows in real time.

For those of us in global business, this is not background noise. It is the operating framework. The proper response is not optimism or pessimism. It is discipline and resilience.

Planning must be continuous. Static projections have limited value in a world of sanctions risk, tariff shifts, currency volatility, and regulatory change. Scenario modeling, downside preparation, and execution flexibility are now core management functions. No more 5-year strategic plans.

Geopolitical literacy has moved to the center of board-level decision-making. Active conflicts and regional instability influence insurance costs, logistics, commodity pricing, cybersecurity exposure, and capital access. Political risk can no longer be delegated or ignored.

Balance-sheet strength matters. Liquidity, conservative leverage, diversified sourcing, and regional redundancy are strategic assets in a conflict-prone, interest-rate-sensitive environment. As Winston Churchill once said, “However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results.”

Markets ~~will~~ always react to headlines. Effective leadership does not. It evaluates exposure, recalibrates when necessary, and moves forward deliberately.

International expansion should be phased and intentional — city by city, partner by partner, capital deployed carefully. Lack of focus is punished quickly in volatile cycles.

This edition’s book review highlights: In “Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise” Dr. Susan L. Shirk (2022) delivers one of the clearest explanations of how China’s carefully managed “peaceful rise” shifted into a far more assertive global posture. For decades, China’s rise to power was characterized by its reassurance that this rise would be peaceful. Then, as Dr. Shirk, shows in this sobering, clear-eyed account of China today, something changed.

Drawing on decades of research and direct policy experience, she makes an important point: China’s current trajectory is not simply the product of one leader’s ambition. It reflects deeper institutional dynamics, domestic political pressures, bureaucratic competition, and rising nationalism that gradually reduced strategic restraint.

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To receive our biweekly newsletter by email every other Tuesday, click here https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. We do not get involved with or report on politics!

PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.

Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896

Link to our current and past newsletters: https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“The more you know about the past, the better prepared you are for the future.”, Theodore Roosevelt

“The essence of strategy is choosing what not to do.”, Michael Porter

“However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results.”, Winston Churchill

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Highlights in issue #155:

The World’s Richest Countries vs. the Happiest Countries

Global Worries, Local Priorities

Transforming Europe: Bold moves to lift a continent

Vietnam is on track to overtake Canada as a source of U.S. imports

Where Food Inflation Will Hit Hardest in 2026

Global Cash Is Fueling a Historic Start for Latam Stocks

Argentina’s Economy Expands More Than Expected After Midterm Election

Franchise Global News Section: Applebee’s®, KFC® and Papa John’s®

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, January 2026 – Overall global economic sentiment is improving, with businesses more positive about future growth in line with the IMF’s upward growth revisions; several central banks cut interest rates in December. After a year dominated by concerns over trade and global turbulence, businesses are entering 2026 with more optimism—despite continued uncertainty. Indeed, business sentiment was more buoyant in the final quarter of 2025 than in previous quarters, according to the recent McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions. Executives were more upbeat about future economic expectations than they had been in previous 2025 surveys, with respondents expressing the brightest near-term expectations of the year—this in comparison with three previous quarters of largely negative assessments of current global economic and trade conditions.”, McKinsey & Co., February 24, 2026

Editor’s Note: This survey was published before the Iran event that started on February 28^th.

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“The World’s Richest Countries vs. the Happiest Countries – Several Nordic countries rank among both the richest and happiest in the world. Some ultra-wealthy nations, including Singapore and Qatar, do not make the top 20 for happiness. Only a handful of countries appear near the top of both rankings. The world’s richest countries generate staggering income per person. But when it comes to life satisfaction, some of the wealthiest nations fall surprisingly short. This graphic compares GDP per capita (PPP), based on IMF data, with happiness scores from the World Happiness Report, which asks people to rate their lives on a scale from 0 to 10.”, Visual Capitalist, International Monetary Fund and the World Happiness Report, February 27, 2026

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“Global Growth Expected to Slow in 2026 – 2025 could have been worse. According to the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report, the global economy in 2025 demonstrated greater resilience than expected, given trade tensions and political uncertainty, thanks to stronger-than-expected growth in the largest economies. To some extent, the surge of trade before the U.S. tariff hikes, as well as gradual monetary easing, supported economic activity. However, the World Bank does not see this hopeful trend continuing in 2026. As the favorable factors supporting the largest economies fade, the lagging impact of new trade barriers will come to the fore. This points to a continuation of trade tensions and policy uncertainty, leading the World Bank to forecast a decline in the rate of real GDP growth in several regions and economies.”, Geopolitical Futures, February 20, 2026

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“Global Worries, Local Priorities – The Munich Security Index 2026 has unveiled divergence in the most pressing risks perceived by populations across the globe. Based on a survey of around 1,000 adults per country conducted in November 2025, the report highlights how different nations prioritize threats, ranging from climate change to geopolitical tensions. The index scores obtained (0 to 100) cover five dimensions of risks: overall impact, trajectory, severity, imminence and preparedness. In Brazil, concerns about climate change (index score=78), extreme weather and forest fires (77) top the list…. Similarly, India ranks climate change (53) and the destruction of natural habitats (51) as its primary worries….For Germany and the United Kingdom, cyberattacks (75 and 74, respectively) emerge as the foremost concern….Meanwhile, economic and financial crises are a shared priority in Japan (70), the United Kingdom (70) and the United States (67), while political polarization (67) is also seen as a major risk in America.”, Munich Security Report 2026, February 15, 2026

Editor’s Note: This report was released prior to the late February 2026 Iran conflict start

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes, Tariffs & Trade Issues

“Trump spares EU and UK from higher tariff rates for now – Tariffs on exports to the United States will remain at 10 percent. U.S. President Donald Trump has U-turned on his threat to raise his new global tariffs to 15 percent, sparing Britain and the European Union from higher rates. Trump’s decision not to follow through on the threat means continuity for British businesses. U.K. exports already faced 10 percent duties, plus Most Favored Nation (MFN) rates, under Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.”, Politco EU, February 24, 2026

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“America’s trade chaos is just beginning – Tariff wrangling will stretch through the rest of Donald Trump’s term, and beyond. On February 20th America’s Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s signature policy. The president claimed the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 let him slap any tariffs he wanted on anyone for any length of time. The justices ruled 6-3 that Congress did not hide in IEEPA ‘a delegation of its birth-right power to tax within the quotidian power to ‘regulate’, as Chief Justice John Roberts wrote in the majority opinion. Within hours of the decision Mr Trump invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, to levy 10% tariffs on all imports for 150 days from February 24th. The next day he said he would raise the level to 15%, the highest the law permits. Before the justices weighed in, America’s effective tariff rate was 13.7%, estimates the Yale Budget Lab. Swap IEEPA for Section 122 tariffs of 15% and this edges down to 12.2% (see chart 1). By comparison, the figure was 2-3% before Mr Trump took office for the second time in January 2025.”, The Economist, February 26, 2026

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“Where Food Inflation Will Hit Hardest in 2026 – Iran tops the list with a projected 55.9% surge, far above the global average of 3.2%. Currency pressures and prior inflation spikes continue to ripple through food prices. Argentina (33.2%) and Türkiye (25.1%) rank second and third, continuing multi-year inflation trends in both economies. Countries like Malawi, Nigeria, Angola, Zambia, and Ethiopia all rank among the highest projected increases, underscoring ongoing food vulnerability in the region. Food prices remain one of the most persistent cost pressures for households worldwide. In 2026, grocery bills are projected to rise sharply in some countries, while remaining relatively stable in others. Food inflation is influenced by currency movements, commodity prices, trade disruptions, and domestic supply conditions. Countries experiencing currency depreciation or ongoing economic instability tend to see sharper increases in food costs.”, Visual Capitalist & Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, February 25, 2026

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This really interesting infographic from 2025 is compliments of Martha Montoya, CEO of AgTools, Inc.

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Global & Regional Travel News

“Airspace closures across Middle East cause flight cancellations after strikes on Iran – The real-time flight tracking service FlightRadar24 showed airspace closures across the region on Saturday, including in the UAE, Qatar, Jordan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Israel, Kuwait and Bahrain. Several major airports have suspended operations until further notice, including Dubai International Airport (DXB) — the world’s second busiest airport — Zayed International Airport (AUH) in Abu Dhabi and Hamad International Airport (DOH) in Doha. Though many other airports in the Middle East remain open, passengers should check with individual airlines for the latest updates before heading to the airport, as cancellations may vary. Both Gulf airlines and international carriers that fly through the region have issued travel waivers in light of the conflict, allowing passengers to easily change or cancel flights.”, The Points Guy, February 28, 2026

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Book Review

“In “Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise”, Dr. Susan L. Shirk, 2022, delivers one of the clearest explanations of how China’s carefully managed “peaceful rise” shifted into a far more assertive global posture. For decades, China’s rise to power was characterized by its reassurance that this rise would be peaceful. Then, as Susan L. Shirk, shows in this sobering, clear-eyed account of China today, something changed.

Shirk shows how China’s expanding economic and military power, combined with internal legitimacy concerns, produced policies that unsettled neighbors and hardened U.S. attitudes. Actions in the South China Sea, toward Taiwan, and through economic coercion accelerated distrust and fueled structural rivalry with the United States. What we are now experiencing is not a temporary diplomatic downturn. It is sustained strategic competition.

Her warning is equally important: misreading China’s internal drivers increases the risk of overreaction abroad — and miscalculation on either side. For global business leaders, that distinction matters. Today’s friction is rooted in long-term structural forces, not short-term political cycles.

That reality should shape how we assess risk, partnerships, supply chains, and long-term China exposure.

Five Takeaways for Global Business Leaders

1. China’s external behavior is heavily influenced by internal political dynamics.

2. Strategic rivalry with the United States is structural and likely enduring.

3. Economic interdependence no longer guarantees stability.

4. Domestic legitimacy pressures in Beijing affect global markets.

5. Miscalculation — more than ideology — is the principal risk to global business stability.

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Country & Regional Updates

Latin America

“Global Cash Is Fueling a Historic Start for Latam Stocks – Global investors are piling into Latin American stocks at the fastest clip in a decade, sending markets across the region to multi-year highs. The MSCI EM Latin America Index has jumped over 20% in 2026, marking the strongest start to the year since 1991, and has capped a ninth successive week of gains. Investors see potential for local policy shifts and lower interest rates ahead of presidential elections in Brazil and Colombia, and the strike-down of President Trump’s tariffs is another tailwind for the region’s equity revival.”, Bloomberg, February 22, 2026

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Argentina

Argentina’s economy grew more than expected in December due in part to a historic wheat harvest that offset the fallout from a pivotal midterm election. From a year earlier, the economy grew 3.5%, far surpassing the estimate of zero growth from economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The data should provide some relief to President Javier Milei’s administration and bolster hopes for his macreoeconomic program. The farm and finance sectors contributed significantly to the economy’s growth in last year’s final month, while manufacturing and retail fell. Overall economic growth was slow last year as monthly activity expanded only 0.02% in the first 11 months of the year, according to a research note from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.”, Bloomberg, February 24, 2026

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Southeast Asia

“AI in Southeast Asia: An era of opportunity – A region on the rise for
AI opportunities. AI adoption in Southeast Asia is at an inflection point—moving rapidly from exploration to deployment. With strong digital foundations, tech-savvy enterprises, and a young, connected population, the region’s major economies are accelerating toward global competitiveness. Nearly half of Southeast Asian companies surveyed have moved beyond AI pilots, putting the region slightly ahead of the global average. This momentum is driven by a mobile-first consumer base, skilled talent, and local solution providers—creating fertile ground for rapid AI scaling, despite limited policy intervention.”, McKinsey & Co., February 10, 2026

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Canada

“Canadian job growth flatlines in 2025 on trade war, population slowdown – Canada’s job growth stalled in 2025 as key sectors of the economy, such as manufacturing, were hit hard by the trade war, weakening labour demand and prompting employers to shelve hiring plans. The number of employees nationwide receiving pay and benefits from an employer fell by 28,300 or 0.2 per cent last year, Statistics Canada reported on Thursday. At the same time, Canada’s population has started to decline because of major immigration policy changes that are aimed at reducing the number of temporary residents in the country.”, The Global and Mail, February 26, 2026

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China

“How to get rich in modern China – Some of the country’s brightest are cashing in on a state-backed surge. A property bust and chronic deflation have eroded people’s assets, incomes and prospects. Residential property, where Chinese people store the bulk of their wealth, has lost a fifth of its value on average since 2021. Wage growth is weak. And youth unemployment is hovering around 17%. But in a sea of people losing, one group is winning. They are what Xi Jinping, China’s leader, calls nongchaoer: a Chinese term referring to those who “ride the tide” of great economic changes. Today that tide is flowing towards the strategic technologies, such as artificial intelligence and robotics, that dominate the country’s five-year plans for tech supremacy……Smart, young and sometimes from modest backgrounds, the nongchaoer do not flash their growing wealth.”, The Economist, February 24, 2026

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Europe

“Transforming Europe: Bold moves to lift a continent – Europe is starting to reform its investment environment, but there’s no time to lose. Standout companies can take the lead with bold strategic moves that drive their own performance—and a continent’s. This article extends our analysis of the critical contribution companies can make to a European economic renaissance, including through a more strategic approach to collaborating with the public sector to shape the investment environment. Such an economic renaissance would benefit everyone. As the McKinsey Global Institute argues in its new book, A Century of Plenty, it is economic growth and rising incomes that enable many of the things Europeans care about: better health and education outcomes, better physical and social infrastructure, investments into climate change mitigation and adaptation, and investments into security and sovereignty. With growing consensus on what’s needed, now’s the time for both sides to accelerate.”, McKinsey & Co., January 20, 2026

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South Korea

“South Korea baby bump grows – Fertility rate and total births rise for second year but experts say demographic outlook remains gloomy. Korea’s total fertility rate — the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime — climbed to 0.8 last year, up from 0.75 in 2024 and an all-time low of 0.72 in 2023, official data released on Wednesday showed. The figure was better than even the government’s most optimistic projections for 2025 but remains far below the 2.1 threshold that demographers consider necessary to maintain a stable population, absent net immigration. South Korea has been grappling with a long-term demographic crisis, as an ageing and shrinking population raises pensions and healthcare costs and hits projections for economic output.”, The Financial Times, February 24, 2026

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Turkey

“Turkey M&A Volume Surges as Mega Deals Rebound, Deloitte Says – A total of 450 transactions were completed in 2025, up 6% from 2024, with the total deal size increasing 88% to $16.2 billion. The upswing was driven by mega deals, with seven transactions valued at more than $500 million representing 44% of the total deal size. Financial investor activity more than doubled in Turkey in 2025, with total transaction value rising 109% to $4.6 billion. Larger deals were fueled in part by improving investor confidence, which eased the way for companies and financiers to revive previously postponed plans, Deloitte said. The largest deal of the past year was the $1.7 billion privatization of Turkey’s Vehicle Inspection Stations by the MOI Consortium.”, Bloomberg, February 23, 2026

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United States

“Gasoline Prices Will Rise – But How High And For How Long? Amid the myriad uncertainties created by the new conflict in the Middle East region, the one thing we can be sure of is that gasoline prices at the pump will go up in the United States and around the world. The only real questions in that regard are: How high will they go, and how long will they linger? However, in this current conflict in which the United States and Israel are involved in a kinetic exchange with Iran, a single factor holds the key. That single factor is the Strait of Hormuz, the choke point at the mouth of the Persian Gulf through which 20-25% of global crude supply flows onto the global market every day, and whether Iran might mount a successful attack to shut that flow down.”, Forbes, February 28, 2026

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“US GDP growth falls sharply to 1.4% rate in fourth quarter – Figure hit by drop in government spending during federal shutdown comes in far below analysts’ expectations. Friday’s figure from the Bureau of Economic Analysis was sharply down from 4.4 per cent in the previous three-month period and fell well short of expectations of 2.8 per cent in a Bloomberg poll of economists. It comes after an unprecedented 43-day federal government shutdown in October and November that the BEA said knocked a point off growth. A slowdown in consumer spending also weighed on GDP, offset slightly by an uptick in business investment.”, The Financial Times, February 20, 2026

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Vietnam

“Vietnam is on track to overtake Canada as a source of U.S. imports – While U.S. tariffs have hammered Canada’s export sector, Vietnam has emerged a surprising winner in the trade dispute, despite facing an effective tariff rate four times higher than that of Canada. In fact, if the current trajectory of U.S. imports holds, Vietnam could surpass Canada as a share of U.S. imports, highlighting the fraying trade links between Canada and the United States. Under the Trump 1.0 and Biden administrations, the U.S. sought to lessen its reliance on China for low-cost imports through the use of tariffs and other trade restrictions. As such, manufacturers shifted a lot of production to Vietnam instead. Last year, Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. soared 42 per cent to US$194-billion, while U.S.-bound shipments from Canada declined 7 per cent to US$383-billion.”, The Global and Mail, February 27, 2026

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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification

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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News

“Papa Johns is closing 300 restaurants and cutting staff – The pizza chain’s North America same-store sales have fallen for seven of the past eight quarters. It is cutting 7% of its workforce while closing underperforming restaurants and eliminating menu items. Papa Johns CEO Todd Penegor also said that the chain is planning ‘at least $25 million in cost savings outside of marketing’ through 2027, with $13 million expected this year. Penegor said that the company is changing its organizational structure to ‘increase efficiency and simplify operations’. The company is dealing with a pizza market that has been weak for the past two years along with a fast-food environment that itself has been challenged as customers, burdened by inflation, reduce visits.”, Restaurant Business, February 26, 2026

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“KFC’s secret weapon in U.S. comeback could be its strength in global markets – The European market may especially hold clues to how the U.S. business can reassert its iconic status back home. KFC’s U.S. business closed 2025 on a high note, marking 1% same-store sales growth for the fourth quarter after enjoying 2% comps in the third quarter. The House That Colonel Sanders Built has roughly 34,000 locations worldwide that earned $36.4 billion in sales in 2025. Only 13% of its sales came from the U.S.; 27% came from China, 12% from Europe, and 11% from the rest of Asia. Latin America, which made up 8% of KFC’s sales last year, had the strongest growth with its 12% system sales increase, while Africa was the next-fastest growing market with 10% system sales growth in 2025. The U.S. was the only market with negative sales.”, NRN, February 17, 2026. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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“Dine Brands Increases Focus on Traffic, Value Amid Ongoing Consumer Caution – The company’s operational improvements across its business are boosting traffic and sales trends. ‘Guests remain highly intentional about how they spend their discretionary dollars,’ (Chief Executive John Peyton) said. ‘Value remains a critical driver in that decision-making.’ Against that backdrop, the owner of Applebee’s Neighborhood Bar + Grill and IHOP said it has doubled down on value, focusing on portion size, food quality and overall experience, in addition to price. Dine Brands has also emphasized shorter wait times and better service, manager visibility in dining rooms and improved off-premise order accuracy, alongside stepped-up marketing and new menu items. Dine Brands forecast a mid-single-digit increase in commodity costs at Applebee’s as well as a low-single-digit increase at IHOP.”, The Wall Street Journal, February 25, 2026

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To receive our biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!

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William “Bill” Edwards: CEO & Global Trade Advisor “Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global”. With five decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service global management consultant since 2001 helping 40+ franchisors expand into new countries. Bill knows how to turn the challenges in taking a brand global into opportunities.

For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries successfully. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896

www.edwardsglobal.com

And download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business, used by many companies for strategic planning, at this link:

Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking

Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 154, Tuesday, February 17, 2026

Posted on Feb 16th, 2026 in Asia Pacific, Europe, India, Miscellaneous, Predictions and Trends, Professional Development, World Culture, World Economy | Comments Off

“It always seems impossible until it’s done.”

Welcome to the 154th Edition of the Biweekly Global Business Update – The above quotation is attributed to Nelson Mandala and sees appropriate as we plan for doing global business in 2026. As we move deeper into 2026, the signals coming from global markets are both clear and complex. In this edition we cover China, India, Japan, Taiwan, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Global power demand is accelerating alongside AI infrastructure buildout. Fertility rates continue to decline across developed economies. Trade frameworks remain fluid. The world’s largest economies are widening their scale advantage, while cost-of-living pressures persist in major urban centers.

For global business leaders, this is not a moment for reaction — it is a moment for disciplined positioning.

In this edition, we analyze the 2026 Global Cost of Living Index and what it signals for talent mobility, compensation planning, and location strategy. We review the world’s 50 largest economies by projected GDP and examine how output concentration is reshaping competitive dynamics. We explore the accelerating “Age of Electricity” and the implications of surging power demand for data centers, manufacturing siting, and national industrial policy. We assess evolving tariff structures, shifting trade alignments, and regulatory adjustments that are quietly influencing cross-border capital flows.

In the franchise sector, we review global restaurant expansion trends, cross-border brand movement, and the implications of shifting consumer spending patterns in both emerging and mature markets. As labor costs, urban density, and middle-class growth diverge by region, franchisors must align market selection, capital deployment, and local operating partnerships with greater precision than ever before.

This edition’s book review highlights: “Blue Ocean Strategy, Expanded Edition: How to Create Uncontested Market Space and Make the Competition Irrelevant” by W. Chan Kim , Renée A. Mauborgne and Renee Mauborgne. More than a decade after its original release, Blue Ocean Strategy remains one of the most influential strategy books in global business. In the Expanded Edition, W. Chan Kim and Renée Mauborgne refine and reinforce their central thesis: companies achieve breakthrough growth not by battling competitors in crowded ‘red oceans,’ but by creating uncontested market space — ‘blue oceans’ — where competition becomes irrelevant.

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To receive our biweekly newsletter by email every other Tuesday, click here https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Link to our current and past newsletters: https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“It always seems impossible until it’s done.”, often attributed to Nelson Mandela

“Happiness depends more upon the internal frame of a person’s own mind than on the externals in the world”, 1^st US President, George Washington

“The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence; it is to act with yesterday’s logic.”, Peter Drucker

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Highlights in issue #154:

The Global Cost of Living Index 2026

The World’s 50 Largest Economies by GDP in 2026

Full-service restaurants led industry’s job growth in 2025 –

For Better or Worse, Health Care Is America’s Employment Engine

Japan’s Economy Ekes Out Anemic Growth as Takaichi Eyes Spending

Franchise Global News Section: Bob Evans®, Krispy Kreme®, McDonalds®, TGI Fridays® and Wendy’s®

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“The Global Cost of Living Index 2026 – Bermuda is the most expensive place to live in the world in 2026, with prices 23.5% higher than New York City. Switzerland leads Europe, while Singapore is the most expensive in Asia. This graphic visualizes Numbeo’s Global Cost of Living Index, which measures the price of everyday expenses, including rent, relative to New York City (baseline of 100). If a country has an index score of 80, prices are 20% lower than in New York. Scores above 100 indicate higher everyday costs. While inflation has eased in many regions, the cost of living remains a major global challenge. Across 28 countries, home prices have risen more than 50% since 2020, and grocery costs have risen sharply in countries such as Mexico, Germany, and Malaysia, continuing to strain household budgets worldwide.”, Visual Capitalist & Numbeo, February 9, 2026

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“Why are fertility rates collapsing? Gender roles. A big part of female graduates’ decision to have children depends on how they expect their husbands to behave. The decline in fertility has occurred in almost every country in the world. Humanity is unprecedentedly well off and yet has far fewer children relative to its numbers than before. Quality children are expensive everywhere, but in some countries they are exorbitantly so. Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Gender norms will need to be even more equal and societal help with the costs of children even greater if there is to be much hope of raising fertility rates. But a big rise seems unlikely. A declining population looks inevitable in a huge number of rich countries, if mass immigration is ruled out.”, The Financial Times, February 10, 2026

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“The World’s 50 Largest Economies by GDP in 2026 – This infographic ranks the world’s 50 largest economies by projected nominal GDP in 2026, based on data from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (October 2025). The global economy is projected to reach $123.6 trillion in 2026. The United States remains the world’s largest economy, accounting for over $31.8 trillion in GDP. The top five economies generate more than 55% of global economic output.”, Visual Capitalist & the International Monetary Fund, January 29, 2026

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“Global AI Battle Turbocharged by 50% Power Demand Surge – Governments have only begun to grasp the major shifts in policies and politics the “age of electricity” may bring. In a Davos presentation last month, the Nvidia Corp. boss unveiled his vision of the artificial intelligence buildout in the form of a “five-layer cake.” Near the top is where economic value is created, via the models that drive AI and the applications that make it work for businesses. But the base layer – the sponge in the cake — is energy. Right now that means electricity, with power-hungry data centers springing up around the world to drive the new technology. Those centers are effectively competing with humans, who of course rely on electric power to heat and cool their homes and increasingly to get around in cars or trains. The obvious conclusion is, we’re going to need a lot more of it. That’s also the key finding of the new annual report on power production and markets by the International Energy Agency – which heralds the dawning of an “Age of Electricity.” In the coming five years, the IEA predicts global demand for power is set to grow roughly 50% faster than it did during the previous decade – and more than twice as fast as energy demand overall.”, Bloomberg, February 14, 2026

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes, Tariffs & Trade Issues

“Donald Trump plans to roll back tariffs on metal and aluminium goods – Latest softening of levies comes amid persistent voter anxiety about affordability in US. The US president hit steel and aluminium imports with tariffs of up to 50 per cent last summer, and has expanded the taxes to a range of goods made from those metals including washing machines and ovens. But his administration is now reviewing the list of products affected by the levies and plans to exempt some items, halt the expansion of the lists and instead launch more targeted national security probes into specific goods, according to three people familiar with the matter. The people said trade officials in the commerce department and US trade representative’s office believed the tariffs were hurting consumers by raising prices for goods such as pie tins and food and drink cans. Trump’s tariff blitz has pushed US duties to their highest level since before the second world war.”, The Financial Times, February 13, 2026

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“Goldman Traders Launch AI-Proof Software Basket Amid Sector Rout – Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has introduced a software pair trade basket that goes long companies whose businesses are seen as difficult for AI to displace and shorts firms whose workflows AI could automate or replicate internally. The basket includes companies such as Cloudflare Inc., CrowdStrike Holdings Inc., and Microsoft Corp. on the long side, and Monday.com Ltd., Salesforce Inc., and Duolingo Inc. on the short side. The launch comes as anxiety over AI’s disruptive potential intensifies, with software stocks trading at about 27 times earnings, down from roughly 51 times earnings a year ago, and earnings expectations remaining broadly intact.”, Bloomberg, February 13, 2026

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“Global shipping industry sticks with green investments, despite carbon price delay – Shipping accounts for nearly 3% of greenhouse gas emissions. he shipping industry’s biggest players are shrugging off Trump administration opposition to a global carbon price and are forging ahead with billions of dollars in emissions-reducing investments, according to company officials and a Reuters analysis of data. Europe, Brazil and a host of other nations are pushing the sector, which is responsible for nearly 3% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, to go green. But, in October, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, the world’s two largest oil producers, successfully spearheaded efforts to postpone by one year a decision on the International Maritime Organization’s proposal of a $380-per-metric-ton levy.”, Reuters, February 12, 2026

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Global & Regional Travel News

“3 US Carriers Included In The World’s 25 Safest Airlines For 2026 – A “recently released report on the world’s 25 safest full-service airlines for 2026 included Alaska Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and American Airlines. “Dubbed No. 1 on the list of this year’s safest full-service airlines was Etihad Airways. Notably, the latter is one of the United Arab Emirates (UAE)’s two official flag carriers. The country’s other national airline, Emirates, ranked fifth. Cathay Pacific (Hong Kong) ranked second on the list of the world’s safest airlines in 2026. It was followed by Qantas (Australia) in third and Qatar Airways (Qatar) in fourth.”, Travel Noire, February 13, 2026

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Book Review

“Blue Ocean Strategy, Expanded Edition: How to Create Uncontested Market Space and Make the Competition Irrelevant” by W. Chan Kim , Renée A. Mauborgne and Renee Mauborgne. More than a decade after its original release, Blue Ocean Strategy remains one of the most influential strategy books in global business. In the Expanded Edition, W. Chan Kim and Renée Mauborgne refine and reinforce their central thesis: companies achieve breakthrough growth not by battling competitors in crowded ‘red oceans,’ but by creating uncontested market space — ‘blue oceans’ — where competition becomes irrelevant.

The authors challenge the traditional assumption that strategy is about outperforming rivals. Instead, they argue that lasting growth comes from value innovation — simultaneously increasing buyer value while reducing costs. Through case studies ranging from Cirque du Soleil to Nintendo and emerging-market innovators, the book demonstrates how redefining industry boundaries can unlock new demand rather than fight over existing customers.

The Expanded Edition adds updated case examples and deeper guidance on execution risks, organizational alignment, and the human side of transformation — areas often overlooked in strategy discussions. Importantly, Kim and Mauborgne emphasize tools, not just theory. The Strategy Canvas and Four Actions Framework provide practical, visual methods for rethinking competitive positioning.

For global business leaders navigating saturated markets, geopolitical uncertainty, and margin pressure, Blue Ocean Strategy is not simply about innovation. It is about disciplined differentiation and strategic courage. In a world obsessed with benchmarking competitors, this book reminds leaders to step back and ask a more powerful question: What if we changed the game entirely?

Five Takeaways for Global Business Leaders

Competing harder is not the same as competing smarter. Growth often comes from redefining the market, not dominating it.
Value innovation drives durable advantage. Raise what matters to customers while eliminating or reducing what does not.
Noncustomers matter. Expanding demand beyond current buyers can unlock global growth.
Strategy must be visual and simple. Tools like the Strategy Canvas clarify trade-offs and sharpen decision-making.
Execution risk is cultural. Organizational resistance, not idea scarcity, is the biggest obstacle to blue ocean moves.

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Country & Regional Updates

China

“Gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in China 2015-2030 – As of 2024, China was among the leading countries with the largest gross domestic product worldwide, second only to the United States which had a GDP volume of almost 29.2 trillion U.S. dollars. The Chinese GDP has shown remarkable growth over the past years. Upon closer examination of the distribution of GDP across economic sectors, a gradual shift from an economy heavily based on industrial production towards an economy focused on services becomes visible, with the service industry outpacing the manufacturing sector in terms of GDP contribution. According to preliminary figures, the growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) in China amounted to 5.0 percent in 2025. For 2026, the IMF expects a GDP growth rate of around 4.2 percent.”, Published for Statista by C. Textor, Jan 19, 2026

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India

“India’s New CPI May Give Central Bank Reason to Stay on Hold – India will publish inflation figures based on a new index, which may show elevated price pressures in the economy, giving the central bank reason to keep interest rates on hold. The new consumer price index will reflect changes in spending patterns since the last overhaul, with the weighting of volatile items such as food reduced and new spending categories like rentals for rural housing and online shopping added. The changes could lift the January inflation reading and prompt the central bank to hold off on any further rate cuts, potentially pushing up bond yields further and influencing financial market participants’ expectations for interest rates.”, Bloomberg, February 11, 2026

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Japan

“Japan’s Economy Ekes Out Anemic Growth as Takaichi Eyes Spending – Japan’s economic output in the fourth quarter of 2025 was much weaker than expected, registering anemic growth after a deep contraction in the previous period, underscoring the case for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s proactive spending policies following her election triumph. Japan’s real gross domestic product grew 0.2% on an annualized basis in the three months through December, according to a Cabinet Office report Monday. That was weaker than economists’ median estimate of 1.6% growth. Consumer spending, the biggest component of GDP, grew 0.1%, showing the fragility of domestic demand as households continue to cope with inflation that hovered above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for four years through 2025.”, Bloomberg, February 15, 2026

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Singapore

“Singapore’s Car Tax Revenue Now So High It Exceeds Fiji’s GDP – “Vehicle quota premiums raisedS$8.66 billion ($6.9 billion) in the year ending March 2026, about 31% more than the government initially estimated a year ago. When combined with motor vehicle taxes, it brings the total to S$11.05 billion — an amount greater than the annual gross domestic product of Fiji. The government projects that vehicle quota premiums and motor vehicle taxes will raise a combined S$12.22 billion in the year ending March 2027. Singapore has a unique system for allowing cars to stay on the road. Every vehicle must be granted a Certificate of Entitlement as part of a bidding process, which grants permission for it to be driven for a maximum of 10 years.”, Bloomberg, February 13, 2026

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Taiwan

“U.S.-Taiwan Trade Agreement Leaves Major Questions Open – The U.S.-Taiwan Reciprocal Trade Agreement should provide welcome stability to bilateral economic ties, but differences over the trade balance, semiconductor manufacturing, and currency intervention will remain. Taiwan has become only the seventh U.S. trading partner to reach a Reciprocal Trade Agreement with the Trump administration. Under the terms of the deal, the United States will reduce the reciprocal tariff rate on Taiwanese goods to 15 percent, Taiwan will reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers, Taiwanese firms will invest at least $250 billion in the United States for semiconductor production, and Taiwan will guarantee $250 billion in credit for these companies. Taiwan also committed to increasing its purchases of American products, including $44.4 billion of liquefied natural gas and crude oil, $15.2 billion of aircraft and engines, and $25.2 billion of power-generation equipment.”, Council on Foreign Relations, February 12, 2026

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United Arab Emirates

“UAE ‘surpassing Hong Kong’, challenging Singapore for global trade crown – With non-oil trade nearly doubling, analysts say the UAE has secured a first-mover advantage that leaves regional rivals trailing behind. Driven by an aggressive post-pandemic strategy of “economic statecraft,” the nation’s non-oil trade reached $1.03 trillion in 2025, hitting its 2031 targets six years ahead of schedule. By maintaining a non-aligned stance that balances Western partnerships with a role as a hub for diverse capital flows, the UAE has attracted significant global investment and talent. Dubai-based DP World now rivals Hong Kong’s Hutchison Ports and is positioned to challenge Singapore’s PSA International for global leadership in port operations. Beyond logistics, the UAE is investing heavily in AI to secure a first-mover advantage in the next frontier of trade technology.”, South China Morning Post, February 14, 2026

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United Kingdom

“UK labour reforms to cut hiring by one in three employers, survey shows – “More than one in three UK employers plan to cut their hiring of permanent staff due to costs introduced by the government’s labour law reforms, a survey showed on Monday. The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, a professional body for the human resources sector, said overall hiring intentions remained at their lowest level on record excluding the first year of the COVID pandemic, adding to the risks that an ongoing jobs market slowdown deepens.”, Reuters, February 16, 2026

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United States

“For Better or Worse, Health Care Is America’s Employment Engine – Off The Charts: The Visual Says It All. “Manufacturing, once the largest employer in the U.S. economy, has shed jobs consistently since 2022. Health care has gained them. The two sectors have been on opposite trajectories since 2008, when health care employment first exceeded manufacturing. As of January, more than 18 million people worked in health care, compared to 12 million in manufacturing, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And those two sectors have been headed in opposite directions in recent years.”, Investopedia, February 13, 2026

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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification

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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News

“How Franchise Economics Can Fuel YUM’s Next Growth Cycle – Yum! Brands is making franchise “What Franchisors Need to Get Right Before Expanding Internationally – International expansion is a milestone. It’s proof that a franchise system has “made it” at home, and there’s enough demand for your brand to start growing beyond its borders. But, going global isn’t about planting flags on a map. It’s about discipline, clarity, and an honest understanding of what makes your concept work, and what doesn’t translate automatically across borders. Not every successful domestic franchise is suited for international expansion.”, Franchising.com, February 13, 2026. This article is by Stephen P. Smith who is the founder & CEO of Hotworx.

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“Full-service restaurants led industry’s job growth in 2025 – The segment added a net 55,000 jobs during the year, however, it remains below pre-pandemic levels…..eating and drinking establishments added a net 27,800 jobs in January on a seasonally-adjusted basis, up from 13,900 jobs in December. January marked the eighth consecutive monthly increase in restaurant employment, according to the National Restaurant Association. In the last eight months, eating and drinking places added a net 172,000 jobs, versus the overall economy, which has added just 129,000 jobs. The association notes that the industry’s recent employment trends suggest that many operators continue to prioritize boosting staffing levels, even amid a challenging business environment.”, Nation’s Restaurant News, February 11, 2026

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“Bob Evans is acquired by private-equity firm 4×4 – The 400-unit family-dining chain had been owned by Golden Gate Capital since 2017. Its new owner is planning long-term growth. 4×4 said it plans to grow the New Albany, Ohio-based chain, known for its “farm-fresh” comfort food and low prices. Bob Evans management including CEO Mickey Mills will stay in place. It also closed about 75 locations, going from 505 to 430. It generated $761.2 million in sales in 2024, or about $1.8 million per restaurant. It has largely been shrinking since 2005, when it had 590 locations and $1 billion in annual sales. Bob Evans is one of the older restaurant brands in the country, having been founded in Ohio in 1948 by its namesake. The original restaurant was supported by Evans’ sausage-making business, which would later become Bob Evans Farms.”, Restaurant Business, February 4, 2026

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“McDonald’s has a $73B impact on the U.S. economy – The fast-food giant also supports 1 million jobs, including 740,000 people who work in the chain’s restaurants, according to a study the company commissioned by Oxford Economics. One of the most visible parts of this effort involves what McDonald’s calls “the 1 in 8,” referring to the one out of eight Americans who worked in one of the chain’s restaurants at some point in their lives. The company buys $5.9 billion worth of ingredients every year, including 671 million pounds of beef, 130 million pounds of cheese, 2.8 billion pounds of potatoes and 2.1 billion eggs. McDonald’s also noted that it supports nearly $20 billion in tax revenue nationwide.”, Restaurant Business, February 3, 2026

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“Krispy Kreme to sell Japan business to Unison Capital in $65m deal – The brand currently operates 89 outlets in Japan, alongside around 300 fresh delivery points in Tokyo, Osaka and other major urban areas. The transaction, described as Krispy Kreme’s first international refranchising agreement since it set out a turnaround plan in August, is expected to complete in the first quarter of 2026. Krispy Kreme CEO Josh Charlesworth said: ‘We are pleased to announce our first international refranchising agreement since launching our turnaround plan in August, marking meaningful progress on a key pillar of the plan.’”, Verdict Food Service, December 22, 2025

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“Inside TGI Fridays’ ambitious path to 1K units by 2030 – CEO Ray Blanchette said the chain has signed 150 agreements within the past six months, and franchisees are excited to grow again. With this annual growth and the addition of alternative development channels like hotels and airports, 1,000 units by 2030 is attainable, he said. Blanchette returned as CEO of the chain in 2025, shortly after the chain emerged from bankruptcy with an eye on growth, menu innovation and franchising. He is a long-time Fridays franchisee through his company Sugarloaf Hospitality and originally served as Fridays CEO from 2018 to 2023. One of the chain’s biggest growth focuses is non-traditional space, like airports and hotels.”, Restaurant Dive, February 9, 2026

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“Restaurant Brands shares fall despite earnings beat, strong international growth – Restaurant Brands International reported quarterly earnings and revenue that topped Wall Street’s expectations. Strong international sales fueled company-wide same-store sales growth of 3.1%. Popeyes was the laggard of the portfolio, with same-store sales declining during the quarter. However, executives said that Burger King’s progress on remodeling U.S. restaurants slowed last year in response to higher costs, and the chain will no longer meet its 2028 deadline to modernize 85% of its domestic locations. Outside of the U.S. and Canada, Restaurant Brands’ same-store sales climbed 6.1%. International Burger King restaurants, which represents the bulk of the segment, saw same-store sales growth of 5.8%.”, CNBC, February 12, 2026

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“McDonald s Malaysia to launch 100 new restaurants with 254M investment – McDonald’s Malaysia plans to invest RM1 billion ($254 million) over the next five years to roll out 100 new restaurants, upgrade existing outlets and boost its digital capabilities. Managing director and local operating partner Datuk Azmir Jaafar said the planned investment underscores the company’s long-term commitment to developing a Malaysian workforce while expanding its restaurant footprint nationwide, according to state-owned news outlet Bernama. 60% of the funding will be allocated for new restaurant openings, while 20% will be for refurbishing and modernising more than 150 existing McDonald’s Malaysia restaurants, and the remaining 20% for technology and digitalization initiatives, he said.”, VN Express International, February 8, 2026. Compliments of Paul Njones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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“Wendy’s Sales Dented by Persistent U.S. Struggles – The fast-food chain said same-restaurant sales fell 10.1% in the fourth quarter from a year ago, mostly driven by a drop in domestic sales. The report comes as Wendy’s is working to close a number of U.S. restaurants in an attempt to turn around performance. The company plans to close 5% to 6% of its roughly 6,000 U.S. locations……. Sales were also dented by lower advertising funds revenue, franchise loyalty revenue and franchise fees.”, The Wall Street Journal, February 13, 2026

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To receive our biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

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www.edwardsglobal.com

And download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business, used by many companies for strategic planning, at this link:

Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking

Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 153, Tuesday, February 3, 2026

Posted on Feb 1st, 2026 in Asia Pacific, Europe, India, Miscellaneous, Predictions and Trends, Professional Development, World Culture, World Economy | Comments Off

“Global commerce is being reshaped by both opportunity and friction”

Welcome to the 153rd Edition of the Biweekly Global Business Update – The global business environment continues to reset—quietly in some places, forcefully in others. Economic optimism is returning in parts of Asia and emerging markets, even as uncertainty lingers across North America and Europe. Capital is shifting, currencies are moving, and long-standing trade patterns are being rewritten in real time.

In this wide ranging issue we look at: global economic optimism, the movement of top economies up and down the ranking over time, where the world’s population is today, Europe and the AI race, wind and solar pull ahead of oil and gas in the European Union, the fast rise of copper prices, US container shipment changes. energy issues in Canada and China, uneven economic growth in the European Union, Poland entering the global top 10 economies, London as the leading world startup capital outside the USA, America’s top trading partners and the decline of US consumer confidence

Global franchise leaders continue to prioritize unit-level economics, operational efficiency, and disciplined expansion as the foundation for sustainable growth. At the same time, rising debt burdens and evolving regulatory frameworks underscore the importance of capital discipline and governance as brands expand internationally.

This edition’s book review highlights: “The Science of Scaling: Grow Your Business Bigger and Faster Than You Think Possible“ by Dr. Benjamin Hardy and Blake Erickson. This book challenges one of the most common myths in business—that growth is primarily about working harder or expanding incrementally. Instead, Hardy and Erickson argue that meaningful scale comes from strategic leverage, identity shifts, and systems thinking, not effort alone. Drawing on behavioral psychology, case studies, and performance science, the book reframes scaling as a process of elimination, focus, and multiplication, rather than accumulation.

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To receive our biweekly newsletter by email every other Tuesday, click here https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Link to our current and past newsletters: https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“Technology moves at digital speed; regulation moves at political speed. Global leaders must manage both.”, Christine Lagarde

“AI is not merely a tool for efficiency, but a transformative force reshaping workforce dynamic.”, Hussain Sajwani, UAE business leader

“Trade is changing……global commerce is being reshaped by both opportunity and friction.”, World Economic Forum trade insights from Davos 2026

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Highlights in issue #153:

How Major Economies Have Shifted Since 2000

Economic optimism returns

America’s Top Trading Partners in 2025

US Container Growth Vanishes With World Trade Flows ‘Moving On’

US Consumer Outlook at Its Darkest in 12 Years

Franchise Global News Section: Chili’s®, Fat Brands, Starbucks®, YUM Brands and Wingstop®

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Please join me and 200+ other Southern California senior executives at the February 12th ReINVENT SUMMIT at the University of California, Irvine to learn the latest business trends across many diverse business sectors that can help you be more successful in 2026.

I will be interviewing Dr. Noel Hacegaba, CEO of the Port Of Long Beach, on his view of global trade going forward. Register to attend the afternoon of Thursday, February 12th at the Beall Center for Innovation at UCI at this link:

https://enpinstitute.com/event/emerge-26/

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“Economic optimism returns – Executives around the globe have shown increased optimism about their domestic economies compared with just a few months earlier, according to a December 2025 McKinsey survey. Senior Partner Sven Smit and coauthors note that survey respondents in Greater China and India remain the most optimistic, with more than two-thirds in each region expecting economic conditions to improve in the next six months. Although sentiment has also brightened in North America and Europe, a significant share of executives in those regions still anticipate that conditions may worsen.”, McKinsey & Co., January 29, 2026

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“How Major Economies Have Shifted Since 2000 – This graphic shows the top economies by GDP over the past quarter century, based on data from the International Monetary Fund. America has long held the title as the world’s largest economy, rising from a GDP of $10.3 trillion in 2000 to $30.6 trillion in 2025. China emerged as the second-biggest economy in 2010, with its economy growing by a factor of nearly 17 since 2000. The global balance of power looks very different than it did 25 years ago. In 2000, Japan was the world’s second-largest economy and China was only in sixth place. Since then, the global hierarchy has shifted dramatically, driven by the rapid rise of China and India.”, Visual Capitalist and the IMF, January 19, 2026

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“Emerging markets make roaring start to 2026 as dollar slides – Stocks, bonds and currencies have all soared as dollar weakness puts focus on fundamentals. ‘Fundamentals in emerging markets have been improving for a while but it took the weak dollar for global investors to pay attention,’ said David Hauner, head of global emerging markets fixed-income strategy at Bank of America. Many emerging-market central banks have boosted interest rates well above inflation in recent years in an attempt to retain capital that was being enticed away by the rise in US interest rates since 2022, which helped drive a decade-long strengthening in the dollar. In comparison, the MSCI World index of advanced economy stocks is up 2.8 per cent this year, while the S&P 500 index of US blue-chip stocks is up 1.6 per cent.”, The Financial Times, January 29, 2026

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“The Entirety of the World’s 8.2 Billion Population in One Chart – The global population surpassed 8.2 billion in 2025, up from 8.0 billion in 2022. India drove nearly a quarter of global population growth over the period, with its population now close to 1.5 billion. After reaching 1 billion people in 1804, the world’s population has expanded eightfold over roughly 200 years. Since 2022, the global population has increased by more than 200 million despite widespread declines in birth rates. While the populations of China and Brazil have shrunk, India and Nigeria have been significant drivers of overall population growth.”, Visual Capitalist and the UN Statistics Division, January 25, 2026

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“Europe can still win the other AI race – Use of the technology is picking up pace. From cloud-computing to 5g, European companies have tended to be slow in adopting new technologies. Many feared that the same would happen with the most recent wave of so-called generative ai. The opportunity is big. Europe has a large industrial base and it is hunting for ways to boost economic growth. Already Europeans as individuals are among the most enthusiastic adopters of generative ai. According to research from Microsoft, a software giant, 32% of them use the technology, based on a population-weighted average of European countries, compared with 28% of Americans and 16% of Chinese.”, Economist, January 22, 2206

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes, Tariffs & Trade Issues

“Dollar sinks to 4-month low and gold soars past $5,000 as yen leaps – Japanese currency climbs sharply on speculation of joint US-Japan market intervention, adding to pressure on greenback. The dollar, which analysts said was also suffering from concerns over a potential US government shutdown, fell 0.6 per cent on Monday against a broader group of major currencies, extending the losses sparked by last week’s Greenland crisis. As US risks pushed investors out of the dollar, they sought safety in precious metals, sending gold to an all-time high and silver to its highest level since 2008.”, The Financial Times, January 25, 2026

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“In the EU, wind and solar surpass fossil fuels for first time – The watershed moment comes as the region looks to prioritize clean, domestic energy sources over dirty coal or imported natural gas. In 2025, wind and solar produced more electrons for the EU than fossil fuels did, per a new Ember report — the first time that’s ever happened over the course of an entire year. Though wind still produces more power for the EU than solar does, it was the blistering growth of the latter that drove last year’s achievement. Last year, coal accounted for just 9.2% of the region’s electricity, and several EU nations have already phased it out entirely or committed to doing so before 2030.”, Canary Media, January 30, 2026

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“Copper Billionaires’ Fortunes Double as Metal Prices Soar – The wealth of Latin America’s two richest copper billionaires has doubled over the past year, fueled by record-setting prices for copper. German Larrea and Iris Fontbona have generated $64 billion in new wealth in the past year, with Larrea’s fortune jumping to $71.6 billion and Fontbona’s net worth increasing 91% to $55.6 billion. Copper prices have soared due to shipments flowing into US warehouses, disruptions to copper supplies, and favorable longer-term factors, including the need for more cables for data centers, electric vehicles, and electronics. Copper supplies have been further disrupted by a string of incidents at major mines around the world, while a weakening dollar and lower interest rates create additional support for commodities. A normalization of supply disruptions could see prices retreat, but underpinning the market are favorable longer-term factors.”, Bloomberg, January 29, 2026

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“US Container Growth Vanishes With World Trade Flows ‘Moving On’ – US container imports ended 2025 in a four-month skid that’s likely to lengthen this year as trade shifts to other economies to avoid President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Inbound volumes in December dropped 6.4% from a year earlier to 1.9 million 20-foot container units, after a 5.7% slide the previous month. The result is an upheaval in international commerce that ING Groep NV economists called “a global recalibration and the start of a new era” with the US lagging much of the world in growth rates for container shipping. Trump has used import taxes — actual or threatened — as leverage against trading partners, hoping to reduce the US trade deficit and increase domestic production. In response, major economies such as China and the European Union are seeking ways to reduce their reliance on the American market, and signing trade deals with other countries or blocs.”, Bloomberg, January 31, 2026

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Book Review

“The Science of Scaling: Grow Your Business Bigger and Faster Than You Think Possible” by Dr. Benjamin Hardy and Blake Erickson challenges one of the most common myths in business: that growth is primarily about working harder or expanding incrementally. Instead, the authors argue that meaningful scale comes from strategic leverage, identity shifts, and systems thinking, not effort alone. Drawing on behavioral psychology, case studies, and performance science, the book reframes scaling as a process of elimination, focus, and multiplication, rather than accumulation.

For leaders operating across borders, the message is particularly relevant. Global growth amplifies complexity, and the authors are clear: without clarity of vision, disciplined priorities, and the right partnerships, scale actually destroys value. The book’s strength lies in its insistence that leaders must first scale themselves—their decision-making, time allocation, and tolerance for change—before attempting to scale organizations.

The Science of Scaling offers a mindset and framework that translates well to franchising, licensing, and cross-border expansion.

5 Takeaways for Global Business Leaders

Scale follows focus, not geography
Eliminate before you expand
Leverage partnerships, not just capital
Systems beat heroics at scale
Leadership identity must evolve before the business can

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Country & Regional Updates

Canada

“Canada shipped a record share of oil to non-U.S. countries in November – The share of Canada’s crude petroleum flowing to countries other than the United States hit an all-time high in November, topping the previous month’s record, as the Trans Mountain pipeline boosted Canada’s trade diversification efforts. But while the latest trade numbers from Statistics Canada show the pivot away from the U.S. is working, the gains elsewhere have not been enough to make up for slumping demand from south of the border. Canada shipped 14.1 per cent of its crude to the rest of the world in November, with China alone accounting for 10 per cent of Canada’s total oil exports that month.”, The Globe and Mail, January 30, 2026

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China

“China Takes on Green Energy Gridlock With Direct Connections – Unlike most wind farms across China, the 500-megawatt facility run by Swan Electric Power in Sanmenxia in the central province of Henan does not feed electricity into the national grid. Rather, it delivers power through a dedicated transmission line into a self-operated distribution network, bypassing the state-run utility system to directly supply end users. This setup — known as a “green power direct connection” — is emerging as one of Beijing’s most closely watched experiments in fixing a growing imbalance that has emerged from China’s energy transition. The country has built renewable capacity faster than its grid can handle it, leading to widespread waste. The policy-backed direct connection model is expected to ease pressure on the grid, lower energy costs for factories, and create an outlet for projects that might otherwise sit idle.”, Caixin Global, January 23, 2026

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European Union

“Uneven Growth Continues to Plague Europe – Germany and France are lagging behind. Gross domestic product in the European Union grew 0.4 percent in the third quarter of 2025 relative to the previous quarter, demonstrating resilience in the face of immense challenges, including trade disputes with the U.S. and fierce competition from China. Denmark saw the highest rate of growth, driven by its pharmaceutical industry. However, growth across the Continent was again highly uneven. While less economically developed countries surged ahead (in Poland, for example, household consumption and rising consumer sentiment fueled increases in GDP and employment), key European heavyweights remain in limbo. In Germany, the EU’s traditional economic engine, unemployment reached a 12-year high, and political instability in France is also leaving its mark on growth. Additionally, Europe’s shift away from cheaper Russian energy has left it dependent on a limited number of costlier alternatives.”, Geopolitical Futures, January 30, 2026

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“What a Break With Europe Means for the American Economy – Europe is the U.S.’s biggest trading partner, largest investor and closest financial ally. The economies of the U.S. and Europe are intertwined. The European Union is the U.S.’s biggest trading partner—and Europe is the largest source of foreign direct investment in the U.S., with $3.6 trillion invested into the U.S. as of 2024. It goes the other way, too: U.S. companies make a fortune selling software, financial products and oil across the Atlantic. While the trans-Atlantic goods trade has grown more slowly since the 2007-09 recession, U.S. services exports have continued to expand rapidly. That includes financial, legal and insurance services, but increasingly centers on digital services and cloud computing provided by leading American tech companies such as Microsoft, Amazon.com, Google and International Business Machines. The European Union is the largest destination for U.S. services exports, which for the bloc totaled $294.7 billion in 2024.”, Wall Street Journal, January 19, 2026.

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Poland

“Poland’s Economy Set to Enter Global Top 20 Following Another Strong Year – Strong private consumption and sustained public investment helped the economy hit $1 trillion in 2025. The milestone, confirmed by data released Friday by the country’s statistics agency, likely lifted Poland into the world’s top 20 economies for 2025. It is expected to supplant Switzerland, which hasn’t yet released its end-of-year tally. Poland now sits right behind No. 19 Saudi Arabia’s $1.3 trillion economy. Three-and-a-half decades ago, under an isolated communist regime, the purchasing power of an average Pole—adjusted for local prices—was on par with Jamaica. Now, it’s higher than Japan. The European Commission expects Poland’s budget deficit to narrow to 6.3% of GDP in 2026.”, The Wall Street Journal, January 30, 2026

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United Kingdom

“How London became the rest of the world’s startup capital – Outside America, no other city comes close. London is one of the best places in the world to start a company. It has produced more unicorns ($1bn-plus startups) than Berlin, Paris and Tokyo combined. Their alumni are now spawning a second generation of firms. It is the world’s fourth-largest venture hub, according to Dealroom, a data provider. In 2025 its startups raised $17.7bn, behind only the Bay Area, New York and Los Angeles. Three main ingredients explain the city’s enduring success. The most important is talent. London is one of the world’s most diverse startup hubs. More than half of Britain’s fastest-growing startups were founded by immigrants. Capital is the third ingredient. London struggles to fund companies at later stages (hence the flight problems). But it excels at nourishing them early on and is beginning to attract more specialist investors for that crucial early stage.”, The Economist, January 26, 2026

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United States

“America’s Top Trading Partners in 2025 – This graphic shows America’s biggest trading partners in 2025 through October, based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau. U.S. bilateral trade reached $4.7 trillion between January and October 2025, in a volatile year for trade policy. The European Union accounted for 18.8% of all U.S. trade in the first 10 months of 2025, valued at $883.3 billion. China ranks as America’s fourth-largest trading partner, with U.S. imports declining 26.7%, given rising tensions. In August 2025, the U.S. and EU agreed to a framework that set a 15% tariff ceiling on most goods, while existing 50% U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum were left in place for all global trading partners. Mexico follows, with $731.2 billion in cross-border trade in 2025. After the U.S. announced tariffs on Mexican imports in February 2025, subsequent negotiations led to delays and partial exemptions. Ranking in third is Canada, with $606.7 billion in trade value.”, U.S. Census Bureau and Visual Capitalist, January 25, 2026

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“US Consumer Outlook at Its Darkest in 12 Years – US consumer confidence plummeted in January to the lowest level in 12 years on more pessimistic views from Americans worried about the nation’s economy, inflation and a weakening labor market. The gauge by the Conference Board decreased to 84.5, from an upwardly revised 94.2 last month, data out Tuesday showed. The figure was the lowest since May 2014 and fell short of all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. In write-in responses to the survey, consumers often mentioned prices of oil, gas and groceries, said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. Mentions of politics, the labor market and health insurance also rose.”, Bloomberg,

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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification

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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News

“How Franchise Economics Can Fuel YUM’s Next Growth Cycle – Yum! Brands is making franchise economics the core driver of unit growth and long-term value creation. KFC and Taco Bell grew system sales and restaurant margins despite inflation in labor and commodities. YUM is using scale, supply-chain leverage and the Byte platform to boost franchise productivity. Yum! Brands, Inc.’s next growth phase appears increasingly tied to a single, deliberate priority: improving franchise-level economics. Management has made it clear that unit expansion, margin durability and long-term value creation all hinge on how attractive the four-wall economics look for franchise partners. The strategy is already showing traction. Yum! Brands delivered solid system sales growth alongside expanding restaurant-level margins at both KFC and Taco Bell, despite inflationary headwinds in commodities and labor.”, Zacks, January 25, 2026

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“More of the same’ for Chili’s as sales soar again – The chain seems to have perfected a formula for growth in casual dining and shows no signs of letting up. Next up is a new chicken sandwich and remodeled restaurants. Same-store sales jumped 8.6% year over year for the three months ending Dec. 24, continuing a spectacular run since CEO Kevin Hochman arrived in 2022 with a plan to revive the Dallas-based casual-dining chain. The sales growth included a 4.4% price increase, 2.7% traffic growth and a 1.5% mix improvement. In an earnings call Wednesday, the company chalked up its ongoing momentum to the playbook Hochman put in place nearly four years ago: Improved food and operations backed by widespread, value-based marketing.”, Restaurant Business, January 28, 2026

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““Wingstop’s COO Revival: Raj Kapoor’s Rise Amid Expansion Push” – Wingstop reinstates COO role with Rajneesh Kapoor’s promotion, targeting ops amid 2025 sales dips and 475+ new units. Tech like Smart Kitchen drives efficiency as chain eyes 10,000 stores globally. Wingstop’s franchise-heavy model—98% franchised—relies on such efficiencies. Domestic average unit volumes hit $2.1 million in 2024, with pilots showing Smart Kitchen slashing ticket times nearly in half via AI-driven demand forecasting using over 300 variables like weather and sports schedules, as detailed by Restaurant Business Online.”, Web Pro News, January 25, 2026

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“Starbucks China Revenue Jumps Amid Restructuring Push – Starbucks China s revenue is projected to grow by 11 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025. The company’s China business saw comparable store sales grow 7% during the period after years of stagnation, driven by a 5% rise in comparable transactions and a 2% jump in average ticket, the report said. In November, Starbucks announced a deal to form a joint venture (JV) with private equity firm Boyu Capital to operate its retail business in China, with the transaction expected to close in the spring, subject to regulatory approvals. Overall, Starbucks posted total revenue of $9.9 billion for the quarter, a 5.5% increase, while net income dropped 62.4% to $293 million. However, the international segment saw a 19% rise in operating income, helped by cost reductions after the company classified its China retail assets as held-for-sale and ceased related depreciation and amortization.”, Caixing Global, January 29, 2026. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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“Is UK franchising law about to change? Key takeaways for businesses. The UK government may soon take a closer look at the legislative framework governing franchising relationships, an area that, unlike many other jurisdictions, currently operates without a dedicated statutory framework, relying instead on contract law principles and voluntary codes. The result is a pronounced power imbalance between franchisors and individual operators. For now, franchising in the UK continues to rely on contract law and voluntary industry codes. However, if the government proceeds with reforms, we could see new requirements emerge around disclosure, fair‑dealing standards and more accessible arbitration routes.”, Lexology, January 26, 2026

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“Fat Brands, burdened with heavy debt, declares bankruptcy – The owner of Fazoli’s, Round Table Pizza and several other brands is seeking Chapter 11 debt protection. The company owes $1.45 billion in securitized debt, most of which is through a series of whole business securitizations (WBS) taken out in 2020 and 2021 to fund several acquisitions. Yet those securitizations left the company without enough funds to cover its costs, effectively ‘starving the business,’ according to a court filing this week. Fat Brands started out as Fatburger, owned by Wiederhorn, until 2017 when the company acquired Ponderosa and Bonanza and went public that year through a so-called mini-IPO. It mostly acquired small brands at super-low prices until 2020, when it started using a series of securitization financings to acquire some $900 million worth of restaurant chains. It acquired Johnny Rockets and Round Table Pizza owner Global Franchise Group, along with Fazoli’s and Twin Peaks, and later Nestle Toll House Café and Smokey Bones. Fat Brands’ various restaurant chains have 2,200 locations and 7,500 locations.”, Restaurant Business, January 27, 2026

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To receive our biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

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And download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business, used by many companies for strategic planning, at this link:

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Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 152, Tuesday, January 20, 2026

Posted on Jan 19th, 2026 in Asia Pacific, Europe, India, Miscellaneous, Predictions and Trends, Professional Development, World Culture, World Economy | Comments Off

“We live in excessively interesting times”

Welcome to the 152nd Edition of the Global Business Update – As 2026 begins, global business is neither unraveling nor stabilizing—it is recalibrating. New research from McKinsey and the World Economic Forum shows that while global cooperation remains intact, its structure is changing. Traditional multilateral frameworks are weakening, replaced by more flexible, issue-specific arrangements around data, services trade, capital flows, and technology. For executives, this means a more fragmented, regional, and less predictable operating environment. This edition has news from Canada, China, the European Union, Malaysia, Taiwan, the United Kingdom, the USA and Vietnam. Silver and copper are making news.

Business confidence is cautiously improving. CEO sentiment has rebounded from early-2025 lows not because uncertainty has eased, but because leaders are learning to operate within it. Trade volatility, shifting tariff regimes, geopolitical friction, and supply-chain reconfiguration are no longer viewed as temporary disruptions—they are now baseline planning assumptions. Layer on the rapid commercialization of AI, uneven technology adoption, and rising economic nationalism, and it is clear that global strategy today requires resilience, flexibility, and deep local insight—not just scale.

The data in this issue reinforces a consistent message: growth still exists, but it is uneven and increasingly shaped by demographics, consumer behavior, and national policy choices. Markets such as Vietnam, the UAE, and parts of Asia continue to outperform, while others face slower consumption, trade realignment, or rising cost pressures.

Against this backdrop, global franchising remains one of the most effective vehicles for international expansion. Recent deals and development activity confirm that brands with adaptable models, strong local partners, and market-specific strategies are still scaling globally. In this edition we see global development news from Costa Coffee®, Denny’s®, Domino’s Pizza (Australia), Fat Burger®, Jolibee®, Mr. Transmission®, Pollo Tropical®, Raising Canes® and TGI Friday’s®.

This edition’s book review highlightsIn The Triangle of Power: Rebalancing the New World Order, Alexander Stubb avoids simplistic narratives about a new Cold War and instead offers a clear, usable framework for understanding today’s global order. He argues that power is no longer concentrated in a single bloc or defined solely by U.S.–China rivalry. Instead, it is distributed across three interacting forces: the Global West, the Global East, and the Global South.

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To receive our biweekly newsletter by email every other Tuesday, click here https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Link to our current and past newsletters: https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“We live in excessively interesting times”, Bronwen Maddox, Executive Director, Chatham House

“Uncertainty is bad for business.” — IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva

“Globalization is a fact of economic life.” — Carlos Salinas de Gortari, former President of Mexico

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Highlights in issue #152:

The Global Cooperation Barometer 2026

The Economic Toll of Trump’s Policies Will Soon Be Visible

China’s Slowdown Is Set to Deepen as Pivot to Consumption Stalls

Here are four ways AI and talent trends could reshape jobs by 2030]

Franchise Global News Section: Costa Coffee®, Denny’s®, Domino’s Pizza (Australia), Fat Burger®, Jolibee®, Mr. Transmission®, Pollo Tropical®, Raising Canes® and TGI Friday’s®

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Please click here to join me and 200+ other Southern California senior executives at the February 12th ReINVENT SUMMIT at the University of California, Irvine to learn the latest business trends across many diverse business sectors that can help you be more successful in 2026.

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“The Global Cooperation Barometer 2026 – New research from McKinsey and the World Economic Forum finds that global cooperation is holding steady, but its shape is evolving. The 2026 edition of the Global Cooperation Barometer shows that overall cooperation is largely unchanged from previous years, but its composition appears to be changing (exhibit). Metrics relating to multilateralism weakened the most. Metrics in which more flexible and smaller arrangements of cooperation can operate—in data flows, services trade, and select capital flows, for example—have continued to grow, including in 2025.”, McKinsey & Co., January 8, 2026

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“Here are four ways AI and talent trends could reshape jobs by 2030 – More than two-thirds of chief strategy officers expect the commercialization of AI and emerging technologies to shape business strategies over the next five years. The pace and trajectory of AI advancement has deepened uncertainty about its implications for businesses, workers and the global economy. The second edition in the World Economic Forum’s Scenarios for the Global Economy Dialogue Series explores how AI and talent trends could shape the future of jobs, with varying implications for corporate strategies and investment decisions. Fast-developing technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics and autonomous systems are redefining how businesses operate, how tasks are performed and what skills are required to stay competitive. As they move from experimentation to workflow integration – including the diffusion of agentic AI – their advancement creates both new growth opportunities and risks.”, World Economic Forum, January 7, 2026

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“CEO Confidence Enters 2026 with Measured Optimism – Often, heightened optimism gives way to a phase of adjustment as expectations meet reality. One year ago, CEO confidence surged as post-election optimism fueled expectations of pro-business policies, easing inflation, and lower borrowing costs. That enthusiasm faded quickly. Shifting trade policy, rising costs, and uneven demand made planning difficult, sharply lowering confidence in early 2025 before it gradually stabilized. That context matters as the Q4 2025 Vistage CEO Confidence Index shows a modest but meaningful improvement. Confidence rose to 88.9, an increase of 7 points from last quarter. More notably, this is also nearly 7 points above the 3-year average. This increase does not signal a return to euphoria. Instead, it reflects a growing acceptance of the conditions CEOs expect to face and a clearer view of both risks and opportunities for their business heading into 2026.”, Vistage, January 14, 2026

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“Which countries are adopting AI the fastest? Rich populations and tech-friendly governments help. Measuring the spread of ai is not straightforward. One method, used by researchers at Microsoft, is to identify the share of people who used Microsoft desktop devices to get access to ai tools—such as Chatgpt, Claude, DeepSeek or Gemini—in a given month. The researchers combined this information with other data, such as Microsoft’s market share and mobile-phone use in a country, to estimate ai usage among the working-age population in 147 economies. Residents of the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, Norway, Ireland and France were the top ai adopters. In both the uae and Singapore more than 60% of the working-age population used ai chatbots. Governments there were quick to promote the technology.”, The Economist, January 12, 2026

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes, Tariffs & Trade Issues

“All of the World’s Silver Reserves by Country, in One Visualization – Silver prices surged to new all-time highs in December, extending a powerful end-of-year rally supported by geopolitical uncertainty and a weaker U.S. dollar. Silver futures briefly touched around $80, marking an unprecedented 160% rally in 2025 that outpaced even gold. Against this backdrop, understanding where the world’s silver reserves are concentrated provides crucial context for future supply dynamics. The data for this visualization comes from the U.S. Geological Survey’s Mineral Commodity Summaries (January 2025). It estimates total global silver reserves at about 641,400 metric tons.”, Visual Capitalist and the U.S. Geological Survey, January 6, 2026

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“The New Maritime Operating Environment – Rerouting, rising war-risk premiums and infrastructure surveillance have turned maritime security into a hidden tax on global trade. The prediction that threats to key sea lanes would place global trade under unprecedented pressure proved correct, though the language now needs refinement. The crisis in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb did not dissipate after early disruptions. It instead became the most sustained corridor shock since the pandemic-era supply chain breakdowns. Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, higher insurance premiums and uncertainty over Suez transits reshaped Asia-Europe shipping economics throughout 2024 and 2025. Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope added roughly 30 percent more time (10-12 days) to Asia-Europe journeys and cut effective container capacity by about 9 percent.”, Geopolitical Futures, January 6, 2026

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“Copper Drifts Lower as Traders Weigh Rally’s Impact on Demand – Copper eased from an all-time-high, as markets took stock of a record rally that could hit physical demand for the crucial industrial input, and fell 0.6% on the London Metal Exchange on Thursday. Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cautioned that the copper price is increasingly vulnerable to a correction and see LME copper falling to $11,000 a ton by year-end, noting that the fundamental physical supply and demand balance had weakened in recent months. Nickel also fell, after surging to the highest level since mid-2024, as top producer Indonesia signaled a potential drop in output, with the country likely to issue quotas for 250 million to 260 million tons of nickel ore this year.”, Bloomberg, January 14, 2026

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Global & Regional Travel News

“The Busiest Flight Routes of 2025 – Nine of the Top Ten Busiest Routes operate in the Asia Pacific region. The busiest airline route of 2025 is Jeju (CJU) to Seoul Gimpo (GMP). This route has 14.4 million scheduled seats in 2025, this is equivalent to almost 39,000 daily seats operating on this short sector of just 243 nautical miles. Capacity on the route is 1% above 2024 levels, but remains 17% behind 2019 levels. Seven carriers operate on this very competitive route. Airfares have dropped by 11% year-on year to $44 one-way. The second and third placed busiest routes are both in Japan – which continues to maintain a strong position despite an extensive high speed rail network covering the country. Vietnam’s largest domestic route between Hanoi (HAN) and Ho Chi Minh City (SGN) is the fourth busiest route. The fastest growing route in the top ten is fifth placed Jeddah (JED) to Riyadh (RUH).”, OAG.com, January 2026

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Book Review

In The Triangle of Power: Rebalancing the New World Order, Alexander Stubb avoids simplistic narratives about a new Cold War and instead offers a clear, usable framework for understanding today’s global order. He argues that power is no longer concentrated in a single bloc or defined solely by U.S.–China rivalry. Instead, it is distributed across three interacting forces: the Global West, the Global East, and the Global South.

The Global West continues to dominate in capital markets, institutions, and advanced technology, but faces internal political and demographic constraints. The Global East, led by China, leverages scale, state coordination, and industrial policy to project influence. The Global South has become the decisive swing player — pragmatic, growth-oriented, and increasingly unwilling to align permanently with any single bloc.

For global business leaders, Stubb’s core message is practical rather than ideological: geopolitics has become a permanent operating condition. Market access, supply chains, capital flows, and regulatory environments are now shaped as much by political alignment as by economics. Companies that assume stability, fixed alliances, or frictionless globalization risk strategic blind spots.

The Triangle of Power provides a calm, executive-level roadmap for navigating this multipolar reality — emphasizing diversification, resilience, and geopolitical awareness as essential tools for sustainable global growth in 2026 and beyond.

Five Takeaways for Global Business Leaders

Political literacy is a core leadership skill

The world is multipolar, not bipolar

The Global South is the strategic swing factor

Geopolitics is structural risk, not background noise

Resilience now beats efficiency in global strategy

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Country & Regional Updates

Canada

“US Auto Market Share in Canada Hits Record Low on Tariff Turmoil – US factories’ share of the Canadian vehicle market has tumbled to a new low due to automobile tariffs. Just 36% of passenger vehicles imported to Canada were manufactured in the US during the first 10 months of 2025, compared to an average of 49% in the 10 years before that. The trade war has changed the business, with Mexican and South Korean-made vehicles gaining a bigger share of sales at Canadian auto dealers. Canada is the largest buyer of American-made new cars and trucks, by far. But the numbers help illustrate how the trade war started by President Donald Trump’s administration has changed the business. Mexican and South Korean-made vehicles are gaining a bigger share of sales at Canadian auto dealers.”, Bloomberg, January 16, 2026

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China

“China Purchased No U.S. Soybeans For An Unprecedented Fifth Straight Month – China was under 20% of all U.S. exports of soybeans through October of 2025, the latest U.S. Census Bureau data available. For 14 of the last 17 years for the same time period, that percentage was above 40%. For the first time in more than two decades, the United States did not export any soybeans in the month of October, the traditional start of the exporting season, to the world’s largest market, China. October was also an unprecedented fifth consecutive month without any U.S. soybean exports to China in at least three decades, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau data. It matters. U.S. soybean farmers export about 55% of all soybeans they produce, whether as whole bean, which is the most common, or “crushed” into meal form or as oils, a much smaller percentage, according to the U.S. Soybean Export Council.”, Forbes, January 18, 2026

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“China’s Slowdown Is Set to Deepen as Pivot to Consumption Stalls – China’s economy likely had its weakest quarterly growth in three years, with a reliance on exports over consumption. Gross domestic product likely gained 4.5% in the fourth quarter from the same period a year prior, according to the median prediction of economists. The uneven growth pattern will likely persist in 2026, buoyed by a positive outlook for exports, with consumption and investment remaining the economy’s weak links.”, Bloomberg, January 15, 2026

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European Union

“Housing in the EU: Who Owns, Who Rents, and at What Cost – This infographic looks at housing conditions across the EU through three key lenses: the balance between home ownership and renting, the average/median cost of renting and buying per square meter, and the extent of household overcrowding. Together, these indicators help illustrate how affordable, accessible, and adequate housing is across member states. The data reveals strong contrasts. Countries with high levels of home ownership, such as Romania, still face significant overcrowding, highlighting that ownership alone does not guarantee adequate living conditions. Meanwhile, countries like Germany show a very different model, with a large share of renters and relatively stable average rental prices.”, Visual Capitalist, January 7, 2026

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Malaysia

“In an act of boycott, Malaysia makes its own ‘McDonald’s’ – In Malaysia, customers who have sworn off global restaurant chains in solidarity with Palestine have fuelled a boom in local brands. Malaysia is by no means a make-or-break market for major global brands. The size of the food service industry in the country will almost double to US$27.5 billion (S$35.5 billion) by 2030, said estimates research company Mordor Intelligence. In comparison, in the US, it will surpass US$1.5 trillion. But the loss of its customers still has commercial implications, especially since Malaysia is not the only country rethinking its relationship with global consumer brands. Coca-Cola Icecek, which bottles and sells Coke products in the Middle East, reported a loss of market share in Turkey and Pakistan this summer, following calls to boycott Western companies with perceived links to Israel.”, Straits Times, December 15, 2025

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Taiwan

“US to cut tariffs on Taiwanese goods after investment pledge – The US said it had agreed to cut the tariffs it charges on goods from Taiwan to 15%, in exchange for hundreds of billions of dollars in investment aimed at boosting domestic production of semiconductors. The Commerce Department said the island’s semiconductor and technology enterprises had committed to “new, direct investments” worth at least $250bn (£187bn). The deal also provides carve-outs from tariffs for Taiwanese semiconductor companies investing in the US. As well as the direct investments from companies, the Taiwanese government will provide $250bn in financing to support firms, according to the Commerce Department.”, BBC, January 15, 2026

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United Kingdom

“The one measure that can tell us a lot about the state of the UK economy – There is one chart that might explain quite a lot about both the state of and the prospects for the UK economy. And it might say a fair bit about the political direction of the UK too. It is consumer confidence. These are the long-running surveys that essentially put the nation on the economic psychiatric couch. How do you feel about the economy’s prospects? Are you likely to buy a major piece of equipment? How are your personal finances? Younger people have a generally sunnier starting point but that dims as they age – not a great surprise – and all age groups react to events similarly.”, BBC, January 17, 2026

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United States

“The Economic Toll of Trump’s Policies Will Soon Be Visible – Mainstream economists have underestimated the cost of all the confusion the administration has unleashed, particularly on trade and immigration. Many forecasters and investors misinterpret the state of the American economy due to a fundamental misunderstanding of how government-induced uncertainty affects it. The effects of President Donald Trump’s trade and immigration policies, such as tariffs and deportations, are expected to become more evident in 2026, leading to stagflationary effects and inflationary pressures. The uncertainty caused by Trump’s policies has delayed decision-making by businesses, households, and investors, but as this uncertainty is resolved, shortages and inflation are expected to rise, potentially forcing employers to raise wages and adding to inflationary pressures.”, Bloomberg, January 13, 2026

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“Economists Shrug Off Trumponomics, Boost 2026 Growth Outlook Back Above 2% – Last year, economists slashed expectations amid tariffs and other Trump policies. The latest survey shows those concerns have largely receded. Economists have learned to stop worrying about Trumponomics. The forecasts are based on 74 surveys from academic and business economists received by the Journal between Jan. 9 and Jan. 15, before Trump’s latest threat to impose tariffs on countries that resist his demands to acquire Greenland. Not every forecaster answered every question. ‘The effective tariff rate will likely peak a little above 13% in the first quarter and that’s almost half the pace of April 2nd—but it’s still more than four times the pace of a year ago,’ said KPMG’s chief economist Diane Swonk. ‘It wasn’t as bad as it could have been.’”, The Wall Street Journal, January 18, 2026

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“Vietnam Economy Expands Despite Tariffs, Beating Estimates – Vietnam’s economy grew faster than expected last quarter as manufacturing, investment and trade gained momentum despite President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Gross domestic product expanded 8.46% in the October-December period from a year earlier, beating all estimates in a Bloomberg survey. Vietnam maintained its status as one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, supported by resilient exports and increased public investment, despite facing risks such as liquidity shortages and inflation management.”, Bloomberg, January 5, 2026

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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification

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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News

“Pollo Tropical owner hints at long-term IPO plans – Authentic Restaurant Brands, which also owns Primanti Bros, P.J. Whelihan’s and other regional chains, suggested that it could go public in three to five years. It also wants to acquire more brands. While many PE-backed restaurant brands aspire to national growth, ARB is strictly focused on expanding brands within their home markets. When it buys a brand, it keeps management in place and invests in G&A, an area where other firms typically look to cut.”, Restaurant Business, January 14, 2026

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“Denny’s Corporation Announces Completion of Acquisition by TriArtisan Capital Advisors, Treville Capital Group and Yadav Enterprises – Denny’s Corporation (the “Company” or “Denny’s”) (NASDAQ: DENN), owner and operator of Denny’s Inc. and Keke’s Inc., today announced the successful completion of its previously announced acquisition by TriArtisan Capital Advisors LLC (“TriArtisan”), Treville Capital Group (“Treville”) and Yadav Enterprises, Inc. (“Yadav Enterprises”). The transaction closed following approval by Denny’s stockholders as well as satisfaction of all required regulatory and customary closing conditions. With the support of TriArtisan, Treville and Yadav Enterprises, Denny’s will have enhanced flexibility and resources to invest in its brands, support franchisees and accelerate its growth initiatives.”, Global Newswire, January 16, 2026

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“Raising Cane’s plans to enter Mexico in 2026 – The fast-growing chain signed a development agreement with Alsea to debut in the market. The agreement with Raising Cane’s includes plans to explore additional opportunities in the region following its debut next year. The chain currently operates more than 950 restaurants across 43 U.S. states and the Middle East and has also recently announced plans to expand into the United Kingdom next year.”, National Restaurant News, December 9, 2026

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“Moran Family of Brands Goes Global with Acquisition of Mister Transmission – In a milestone moment that reflects the strength and growth of the automotive aftermarket industry, Moran Family of Brands is expanding into Canada with the acquisition of Mister Transmission, creating a unified North American leader in automotive service and repair. Already owning U.S.-based Mr. Transmission, Moran has expanded its portfolio on an international scale to continue meeting the evolving needs of automotive customers.”, PR Newswire, December 8, 2025

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“Fatburger Brings a Taste of Hollywood to Japan with Okinawa Opening – FAT (Fresh. Authentic. Tasty.) Brands Inc. announces the opening of its newest Fatburger location in Okinawa in partnership with Green Micro Factory Inc., marking the brand’s highly anticipated return to Japan.”, Franchising.com, December 16, 2025

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“Domino’s Pizza (Australia) names fast food veteran Merrill Pereyra as CEO – With more than 30 years of experience in the quick-service restaurant industry, Pereyra has held several regional leadership positions at McDonald’s, and at Domino’s Pizza Indonesia, where he was CEO. He joined QSR Brands, a part of Yum! Brands franchisee for KFC and Pizza Hut as executive director and CEO. In 2019, as MD of Pizza Hut India, Pereyra led a sales turnaround. Inside Retail, January 12, 2026

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“TGI Fridays targets 1K units, $2B revenue by 2030 – The once-bankrupt chain will focus on global growth, improving franchisee profitability and boosting the guest experience as part of a new strategic vision. TGI Fridays unveiled its “1-2-3 Strategic Vision” on Monday with a plan to target over 1,000 units and $2 billion in annual revenue by 2030, according to a press release. The plan covers four strategic pillars, including activating the brand, growing across markets, improving its franchised system and investing in people and leadership development. Fridays, which has nearly 400 units across more than 40 countries, has signed several development agreements to open over 150 units worldwide, the press release said.”, Restaurant Dive, January 12, 2026

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“Jollibee Looks to Tap Deep US Investor Base for Overseas Unit – Jollibee Foods Corp. plans a US listing to tap into the nation’s deep investor base. The company expects to spin off its international unit and list in the US by late 2027, while its domestic business will remain on the Philippine bourse. Listing in the US will introduce Jollibee to broader research coverage by company analysts, according to Richard Shin, global chief financial officer of Jollibee. The company, which increasingly aims to compete globally with giants such as McDonald’s and Yum! Brands Inc., expects to spin off its international unit and list in the US by late 2027, while its domestic business will remain on the Philippine bourse, among the world’s worst-performing exchanges in the past decade.”, Bloomberg, January 14, 2026

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“Costa (Coffee) sale scrapped, sector cutting emissions and recovering millions, half of pubs closing early et al – Coca-Cola scraps plans to sell Costa after bids fall short: Coca-Cola has ditched plans to sell Costa Coffee after bids from private equity suitors fell short of its expectations. Firms in the latter rounds of negotiations included Asda owner TDR Capital and Bain Capital’s special situations fund, owner of Gail’s and PizzaExpress, the FT reported. Coca-Cola had been seeking about £2bn for Costa, roughly half the £3.9bn it paid to acquire the UK’s largest coffee shop brand from Premier Inn owner Whitbread in 2018. Talks over a deal with TDR would have seen Coca-Cola retain a minority stake in Costa. Private equity firms Apollo, KKR and Centurium Capital, owner of China’s Luckin Coffee brand, were involved at earlier stages of the process, which was handled by Lazard, according to people familiar with the matter.”, Propel UK, January 14, 2026

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Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 151, Tuesday, January 6, 2026

Posted on Jan 5th, 2026 in Asia Pacific, Europe, India, Miscellaneous, Predictions and Trends, Professional Development, World Culture, World Economy | Comments Off

“In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity.”, Albert Einstein

Welcome to the 151st Edition of the Global Business Update – This quote captures the global business mindset needed for 2026. Trade, technology, and geopolitics are no longer separate conversations—they are increasingly the same conversation. This issue highlights how ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and trade rules, uneven economic momentum across regions, and the rapid embedding of artificial intelligence into strategy and workforce planning are reshaping how companies compete and expand.

A consistent message runs through these stories: the winners in 2026 will not be the most aggressive globalizers, but the most disciplined and pragmatic ones—leaders who invest in due diligence, localization, and smart market-entry structures before scaling. The past year reminded many companies that preventable mistakes—weak partner selection, misreading local hiring practices, and underestimating regulatory realities—can quickly turn opportunity into costly detours.

AI adds another layer of complexity. It is becoming both a competitive weapon and a governance challenge as jurisdictions move to regulate its use in hiring, monitoring, and performance management. In 2026, AI will be a performance accelerator—but also a risk factor that requires active management.

The same pragmatism appears in the international franchise stories at the end of this issue: Burger King UK planning 30 new company-owned restaurants a year, franchise operators consolidating for scale in India, and global leaders like McDonald’s and Popeyes proving again that local adaptation—not standardization—drives international success.

2026 will reward adaptability, local insight, and the ability to turn difficulty into advantage.

This edition’s book review highlights Global Value Chains and Geopolitical Uncertainty: Disruption and Transformation edited by Imran Ali, William Ho, and Thanos Papadopoulos, is a timely guide to how global trade and cross-border operations are being reshaped by a new and lasting reality: geopolitical uncertainty has become a permanent operating condition rather than an occasional disruption. The book examines how political tensions, supply shocks, industrial policy, and fast-moving technologies are changing how goods and services move across borders—and what businesses and governments can do to adapt.

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity.”, Albert Einstein

“The view you adopt for yourself profoundly affects the way you lead your life.”, Satya Nadella, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Microsoft

“Go confidently in the direction of your dreams.”, Henry David Thoreau

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Highlights in issue #151:

All of the World’s Oil Reserves by Country, in One Visualization

Visualising AI Competitiveness Across Countries

US economy expected to grow faster in 2026 despite stagnant job market

U.S. automakers urge Washington to uphold USMCA

Franchise Global News Section: Burger King®, KFC®, McDonalds®, Pizza Hut®, Popeyes® and Red Lobster®

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

The latest GlobalVue™ country ranking chart is out. This chart has been published quarterly since 2001 and compares countries as places to do business. A ranking if ‘1’ is best and a ‘4’ is worst. Information to crate and update this chart is from ~40 global business sources which are monitored almost daily. This version of the GlobalVue™ country ranking is sorted on the overall average of the 9 country ranking parameters as of January 2026.

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“3 Mistakes Companies Make When Expanding Internationally – Growth blockers can erode the benefits of globalization. Many companies have fallen into the quicksand of jumping into globalization without conducting enough due diligence. An example of a global expansion that went sideways is Home Depot’s failed attempt to gain inroads in China. What went wrong? Consumers in China weren’t motivated to make purchases. Another growth blocker that often surprises businesses is the difference in hiring practices, legal issues, and related expectations around the world. Globalization is worth the effort, but only if you’re dedicated to being pragmatic. Taking a thoughtful and studied upfront approach may delay your break into international markets. Nevertheless, it will prepare you to make your expansion plans work.”, INC. magazine, December 30, 2025

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“These Economists Nailed Their 2025 Forecast: Here’s What They Say About 2026 – Investopedia asked economists at Vanguard to share their predictions for 2026, as their 2025 forecasts are on track to be among the most accurate on Wall Street. The U.S. economy will have solid economic growth, lower unemployment, and slightly lower inflation than in 2026, according to their forecast. Tariffs will continue to push up inflation in 2026, but the economy will likely get a boost from tax cuts, economists said. The year ahead will feature stubborn inflation, an improving job market, and solid economic growth, according to a group of forecasters who nailed their outlook for 2025.”, Investopedia, January 2, 2026

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“Visualising AI Competitiveness Across Countries – Artificial intelligence is fast becoming a barometer of national technological ambition. Stanford University’s AI Vibrancy Tool, which blends metrics from research and talent to governance and infrastructure, shows a clear hierarchy in global AI competitiveness. The United States retains a commanding lead followed by China and then India. High-income countries dominate the top ranks, reflecting deep investments in R&D, robust university systems and mature digital infrastructure. India is the only lower-middle-income country to break into the top 30, a sign of its expanding research base and large technical workforce. Brazil, China and Malaysia represent the upper-middle tier, each building out their AI capabilities with state-backed initiatives and growing private-sector activity.”, Visual Capitalist, December 12, 2025

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“Global employment trends and what’s ahead: 2025 in review and 2026 preview – Global employers are preparing for a new era of workforce planning, compliance, and innovation. Economic and geopolitical uncertainty, rapid technological disruption, and fragmented regulation are rewriting the rules of employment worldwide. Geopolitical and economic uncertainty, as well as technological disruption, are impacting workforce strategies and risks. As AI becomes more embedded in the workplace, jurisdictions around the world are enacting laws to regulate its use – particularly in recruitment, performance management, and employee monitoring.”, Lexology, December 15, 2025

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes, Tariffs & Trade Issues

“Platinum set for biggest monthly gain in 39 years on EU auto policy boost – Platinum prices are on track for their strongest monthly rally in nearly four decades in December, fuelled by the EU’s U-turn on its 2035 combustion-engine ban, a tight supply backdrop and rising investment demand for precious metals. Platinum and palladium, both used in autocatalysts that reduce car exhaust emissions, have surged this year as U.S. tariff uncertainty and a rally in gold and silver helped offset long-term headwinds from the rise of electric vehicles. Platinum , also used in other industries such as jewellery, is up 33% so far in December, its biggest jump since 1986, according to LSEG data. After hitting a record high of $2,478.50 per ounce on Monday, the metal is heading for its biggest yearly growth on record of 146%. Its sister metals, palladium and rhodium, are up 80% and 95% respectively so far in 2025.”, Reuters, December 30, 2025

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“U.S. automakers urge Washington to uphold USMCA – The six-year review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement is not scheduled to take place until July, but automakers in the United States are already voicing their support for the continental free trade pact – and calling for the elimination of the Trump tariffs. The agreement, based on the North American Free Trade Agreement that preceded it, has allowed makers of cars and auto parts to boost efficiency and reduce costs by moving production back and forth across borders. The review is happening against a backdrop of trade uncertainty brought about by Mr. Trump, who has imposed tariffs on goods from trading partners – including Canada.”, The Global and Mail, December 26, 2025

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“All of the World’s Oil Reserves by Country, in One Visualization – Just four countries control more than half of the world’s proven oil reserves. Despite the energy transition, fossil fuels still account for nearly 70% of global energy demand. This visualization ranks countries by the size of their proven oil reserves at the end of 2024. The data for this graphic comes from OPEC’s Annual Statistical Bulletin 2025. Figures represent proven oil reserves as of year-end 2024 and are measured in billions of barrels. The data includes conventional crude oil as well as oil sands.”, Visual Capitalist, December 30, 2025

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“Not Your Father’s Oil Market: Geopolitical Shocks Lack Impact – Sanctions and fracking have changed the market. The headlines from Venezuela and Iran alone, much less combined, used to be the sort of thing that sent crude prices skyrocketing. Today’s market is different, and that could make a miserable stretch for energy investors even worse. Crude prices have just fallen for an unprecedented third year in a row, and the market remains seriously oversupplied as OPEC unwinds voluntary supply cuts. What is more, there are really two oil markets—the transparent one and the “don’t ask, don’t tell” barrels sold by countries like Russia, Iran and Venezuela operating under sanctions. Many follow convoluted routes via shadow tankers and are snapped up by countries like Turkey, India and China at bargain prices.”, The Wall Street Journal, January 5, 2026

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Global & Regional Travel News

“2026 travel predictions: The unexpected cities about to take off – Unexpected cities set to steal the spotlight in 2026 travel. Global travel search engine, KAYAK, just released its 2026 Travel Trends forecast, analyzing millions of flight searches to uncover the biggest trends shaping travel in 2026. The data is showing that travelers are ready to make 2026 count — uncovering that travel to Eastern Europe is having a “major moment” and that large-scale pop culture, sports and global events are driving interest in unlikely cities.”, The Manual, December 29, 2025

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“The Future of Travel – A view from the industry – Travelers are showing changes in behavior as we head toward 2026. While they may increasingly be looking to travel abroad, they’re stretching their budgets to make room for richer, more rewarding experiences. ‘What’s exciting about next year is that our data signals traveler demand and spend is set to increase. 84% of the 22,000 people we surveyed globally said they’d travel more in 2026.’ 84% say they’ll go abroad as much – or more – in 2026 vs 2025.”, Skyscanner, December 2025

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Book Review

Global Value Chains and Geopolitical Uncertainty: Disruption and Transformation edited by Imran Ali, William Ho, and Thanos Papadopoulos, is a timely guide to how global trade and cross-border operations are being reshaped by a new and lasting reality: geopolitical uncertainty has become a permanent operating condition rather than an occasional disruption. The book examines how political tensions, supply shocks, industrial policy, and fast-moving technologies are changing how goods and services move across borders—and what businesses and governments can do to adapt.

Rather than arguing that globalization is ending, the volume suggests it is evolving into a more complex form, where resilience depends on diversification, visibility, and flexibility across suppliers, routes, and partners. The authors highlight that decisions once driven mainly by cost and efficiency must now incorporate risk, compliance, geopolitics, and strategic autonomy.

A key strength is its use of recent case-based analysis—showing how firms innovate, adapt, and redesign value chains in response to shifting policies, trade barriers, and technology adoption. The book also explores how digital tools—including automation and AI—are both enabling adaptation and creating new vulnerabilities. Ultimately, the editors frame the future of global value chains as a dynamic balancing act: maintaining competitiveness while navigating an environment where policy, security, and economic objectives increasingly collide.

Five Takeaways for Global Businesspeople

Geopolitical risk is now operational risk—build it into sourcing, pricing, and market-entry decisions.

Diversification beats reshoring as a resilience strategy—multiple regions, suppliers, and logistics options matter.

Expect more government involvement (industrial policy, security-driven regulation, subsidies)—and plan accordingly.

Digital tools (AI/automation) are competitive necessities, but they also introduce new dependencies (chips, energy, talent, governance).

Treat your value chain as a portfolio—measure and actively manage trade-offs between cost, resilience, speed, and compliance.

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Country & Regional Updates

Australia

“Australia opens trade frontier on its doorstep as counterweight to China – Canberra pushes to increase business with south-east Asia at a time of heightened trade tensions. South-east Asia was “the fastest growing region in the world”, said Nicholas Moore, the former Macquarie chief executive and Australia’s special envoy to the region. Australian companies and investors who focused on China, the US and Europe risked missing out on the opportunity presented by south-east Asia’s booming middle class and projected GDP growth of between 5 and 6 per cent. ‘There’s a much bigger opportunity to embrace in the region,’ he said, forecasting trade to double over the next 10 years.”, The Financial Times, December 30, 2025

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China

“Sam’s Club Is Beating Costco at Its Own Game in China – Walmart’s warehouse-club division finds rare success by targeting premium market. Sam’s Club in China has expanded to about 60 stores from 39 three years ago, with some generating over $500 million in annual sales. Walmart’s overall sales in China increased nearly 22% to $6.1 billion in the August-October quarter, making it the company’s fastest-growing international market. Approximately half of Sam’s Club China’s revenue now comes from online shopping, a significant rise from about 4% seven years ago. By contrast, Costco opened its first store in China in 2019 and now has seven locations. The biggest stores each generate more than $500 million in sales annually, according to Walmart.”, The Wall Street Journal, December 28, 2025. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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Canada

“A tariff road map – The Canada-U.S. trade war is almost a year old – Canada survived Year 1 of the second Trump presidency mostly intact economically, and fully intact sovereignly. What about Year 2? For this series, The Globe asked dozens of economists, analysts and investors to pick a chart they think will be important in 2026. Canadian businesses are also succeeding in rotating their export markets faster than many analysts expected. Tapping into 27 trading partners, Canadian firms have recovered nearly $11-billion of the $18.5-billion loss to the United States. Looking ahead to the (USMCA trade agreement) 2026 renewal, if the U.S. threatens to withdraw – or actually walks away – Canada and Mexico would face another major trade shock, causing more disruption across the North American economy.”, The Global and Mail, January 1, 2026

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Europe

“Forget affordability. Europe has an availability crisis – Tight regulation is largely to blame. At first glance, Europeans have reason to be concerned about affordability. In fact, the continent’s problem increasingly seems to be not affordability but availability. In its highly regulated markets, prices cannot adjust to balance demand and supply. Rationing is doing the job instead. The share of households paying more than 40% of disposable income on accommodation has, if anything, fallen since 2021. The true difficulty is finding a place at all. When a flat does become available, it can attract hundreds of applications. In health care, another regulated market, a doctor’s appointment can be hard to obtain.”, The Economist, December 30, 2025

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India

“India ‘spreads its bets’ to beat Trump’s 50% tariff as exports rise – With exports hitting a record US$825 billion and a spate of new trade pacts, India is finding success diversifying away from the US. Ever since US President Donald Trump imposed import tariffs of 50 per cent on India last year, among the highest levied by Washington, the South Asian nation has maintained a resolute approach to the punitive levies, even as it has kept the door open to negotiations. After concluding the trade deal with New Zealand last month, Indian Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said in a social media post that it was the third such arrangement signed last year, following earlier pacts with the United Kingdom and Oman. Analysts predict that an interim trade deal between the US and India is still likely to materialise in the coming months, rather than a full-blown free-trade agreement.”, The South China Morning Post, January 4, 2026

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Indonesia

“Move over, Tokyo — the world has a new biggest city – Jakarta and its sprawling environs’ 42mn inhabitants are now the most populous conurbation, according to the UN. Last month, the UN updated its list of the world’s biggest cities after changing its methodology for assessing huge conurbations. It looked beyond Indonesia’s own 11mn reckoning of Jakarta’s population, sweeping into its calculations a much bigger urban area covering sprawling satellite towns such as Bogor…… Jakarta’s problems are reflective of other rapidly growing cities in Asia, which the UN says is now home to about half of the world’s 33 megacities — defined as urban areas with at least 10mn people.”, The Financial Times, December 27, 2025

Editor’s Note: Bill Edwards lived in Jakarta in 1975 and 1976 when the core population was estimated to be 5 million people versus 11 million today. Traffic was bad even then!

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South-East Asia

“How south-east Asia is riding out Trump’s tariff storm – Rerouting of goods from China plus US demand for tech products is propping up trade in the region. Goods exports from south-east Asia to the US rose 25 per cent between July and September relative to the same period in 2024 despite the US president’s trade war, according to data from the US Census Bureau. Foreign investments into the region’s main manufacturing economies have also increased, driven by global efforts to diversify supply chains. While Chinese exports to the US were down by 40 per cent in the third quarter of 2025 compared with a year earlier, overall Asian exports to the US have held firm, according to US Census Bureau data.” The Financial Times, January 4, 2026

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United Kingdom

“UK to Pass Population Tipping Point in 2026, Think Tank Says – The number of people who die in Britain this year is set to exceed those born in the country, according to the Resolution Foundation. Britain will see a shortfall in births in 2026, with any population growth from then on set to come from international net migration, the think tank said. The UK’s projected shortfall in births mirrors trends elsewhere in Europe and across the developed world, fueling support for policies to encourage women to have more children. A separate quarterly survey by the British Chambers of Commerce found that confidence has continued to weaken following the November budget to its lowest level in three years, with retail and hospitality the worse affected. The level of tax remains the biggest concern for business, following the £26 billion ($35 billion) payroll levy that came into effect last year and recent increases in business rates.”, Bloomberg, January 4, 2026

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United States

“America’s economy looks set to accelerate – A monetary-fiscal loosening is coming. The effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a tax-cutting law enacted in July, will soon start to be felt. Americans will receive refunds that reflect retroactive tax cuts on income from 2025. They will also find that levies on monthly earnings have fallen. According to Piper Sandler, an investment bank, these “two years of tax cuts in one” are worth about $191bn. Such tax-cutting should be enough to boost gdp by 0.3%—a reasonable stimulus given the economy probably grew by 1.9% in 2025. For all these reasons a vocal minority of analysts say that 2026 will be a year of strong economic growth. Some expect it to be an international story.”, The Economist, December 30, 2025

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“US economy expected to grow faster in 2026 despite stagnant job market – Goldman Sachs predicts growth acceleration as $100B in tax refunds and reduced tariff drag boost economic momentum. Goldman economists see the U.S. economy growing at a faster rate in 2026 with the firm forecasting 2.6% real GDP growth, above the Bloomberg consensus of 2%. That continues a post-pandemic trend of optimism around the U.S. economy relative to consensus forecasts. The Goldman Sachs economists estimate that consumers will receive an extra $100 billion in tax refunds in the first half of next year, which is equivalent to about 0.4% of annual disposable income. Additionally, they note that OBBBA’s business tax provisions allowing full expensing of plant and equipment spending ‘has already started to boost forward-looking capex indicators.’”, Fox Business, December 29, 2025

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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification

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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News

“2025 was a year of hope for full-service restaurants – FSRs had plenty to celebrate as consumers rekindled their love for sit-down dining. But there were challenges too, including a steady stream of bankruptcies. In a year in which consumers grew increasingly fed up with inflation, full-service restaurant chains broke through with an appealing proposition: A full meal, a drink or two, plus friendly service, for a reasonable price. But 2025 wasn’t without its warts. A steady drumbeat of full-service bankruptcies continued, and a turnaround at Cracker Barrel came to a screeching halt following its logo blowup.”, Restaurant Business, December 18, 2025

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“KFC, Pizza Hut India Operators to Merge in $933 Million Deal – Two franchise operators of KFC and Pizza Hut restaurants in India, Devyani International Ltd. and Sapphire Foods India Ltd., have agreed to merge in a share-swap deal worth about $933 million. The deal will create economies of scale, reduce overheads, boost operational efficiencies, and enhance bargaining power with suppliers and vendors, according to the two franchisees. The merged unit will focus on accelerating KFC’s expansion, strengthening Pizza Hut for long-term growth, and scaling emerging brands, and is expected to see potential synergy benefits of as much as 2.25 billion rupees annually from the second full-year of the merged operations.”, Bloomberg, January 1, 2026

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“Here’s What You’ll Find On Popeyes’ Menus Outside Of The US – Popeyes is the place to patronize when you’re pining for poultry — well, chicken to be exact. The chain was founded in 1972 and has found global success over the decades, with thousands of locations in all corners of the world as of 2025. While the bulk of them are in the U.S., it has seen consistent growth in other parts of the globe. It actually opened the first non-U.S. store way back in 1991 in Malaysia, and now it has more than 1,200 international locations in 35 countries. Who doesn’t love loaded fries? Well, if you head to a Popeyes U.K. location, then make sure to order the cheesy loaded fries straight away. Spaghetti isn’t a dish we’d think Popeyes would serve, and yet you can order it if you head over to the Philippines.”, Tasting Table, December 27, 2025

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“Red Lobster’s 36-year-old CEO led the company after bankruptcy. Now he’s plotting the ‘greatest comeback in the history of the restaurant industry’ – Red Lobster entered bankruptcy in 2024, but quickly clawed its way out in just about three months. The once-struggling 57-year-old seafood chain had endured an $11 million endless-shrimp fiasco among other mistakes made. But under the leadership of Damola Adamolekun, 36, who was previously the CEO of P.F. Chang’s, Red Lobster has officially turned the ship around. As the company continues to recover from bankruptcy, the chain expects positive net income in fiscal 2026, and adjusted EBIDTA is expected to grow 43% from fiscal 2025 to 2027.”, Fortune, January 2, 2026

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“McSpaghetti to McAloo Tikki: Inside the world’s local McDonald’s – From paneer wraps in India to ski-through burgers in Sweden, photojournalist Gary He’s new book McAtlas shows that the world’s most global chain is also one of the most local. “McDonald’s has a reputation for cultural imperialism, but that’s not 100% true,” declares photojournalist Gary He. In his new book McAtlas, He challenges assumptions about the global fast-food giant, which operates 42,000 stores in more than 100 countries and serves 65 million people a day. While many believe McDonald’s has homogenised food culture worldwide, He argues the opposite: that the company has thrived by adapting its menu, architecture and brand to local palates and traditions. ‘McDonald’s has succeeded because they have brilliantly incorporated local flavours and ingredients – from the McRaclette in Switzerland to egg bulgogi burgers in South Korea and the Halloumi McMuffin in Jordan,’”, BBC, September 5, 2025

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“Burger King to open 30 new UK restaurants in 2026 – This will bring the number of Burger King restaurants in the UK to more than 600. Burger King UK has announced ambitious plans to launch 30 new restaurants in 2026 despite facing “softer” consumer confidence and mounting pressure from increased labour costs. The revelation comes as the fast-food giant disclosed stronger revenues amid a ‘challenging’ economic climate. Plans have been unveiled to open approximately 30 restaurants each year from 2026 onwards, with particular emphasis on new company-owned locations.”, Express UK, December 30, 2025

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To receive our biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

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www.edwardsglobal.com

And download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business, used by many companies for strategic planning, at this link:

Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking

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