Global Business Development

Our World’s Update – Monday, March 30th, 2020

We are monitoring 22 countries, 25 daily international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing environment. Based on decades of international business experience, we believe it is critical to remember two famous British sayings:

“Keep Calm and Carry On”

“Keep Calm and Breathe Deeply”

A month ago, I gave a talk to a local California business group on what life was like in a locked down China. I sited the quarantine at home for over 40 days of our Beijing based managing director and his family. His 8-year-old daughter was kept inside for these 40+ days and was going to her international school online.

This event has changed how Chinese view working from home, as they did not see this as viable before. The result of millions going to offices, is a huge number of high-rise office buildings in big cities. However, now remote work is looking good. My daughter in Cincinnati has been trying to get her company to let her work from home for years. As of today, she has been told it is mandatory to work from home through April.

By the way, our Beijing managing director’s daughter will be back at school with her friends in April. Meanwhile, my 9-year-old granddaughter in Cincinnati is just beginning her own online education from her home.

Never have we seen a disruption like the one caused by Coronavirus in our history. As of this today, “OpenTable bookings at restaurants worldwide are down by over 80% from a month ago. Retail footfall is down 50-80%, depending on the country”, Financial Times, March 22, 2020. Other franchises where customers gather like gyms are 60-100% shut down. Burger King, Dairy Queen, KFC, McDonalds and Starbucks closed over 7,500 restaurants in China last month. Today. 90% of these restaurants are back open.

Our U.S. restaurant clients have closed almost all their units worldwide – expect for China and Korea soon as well. Our clients are almost all going to remote working, clearing out their large offices around the U.S. They have also put into place a no ‘over water’ travel policy for the next three months. We are lucky that our company has been virtual for years. Not just the six of us in the U.S. working remotely, but also the 30+ members of our team on the ground around the world.

One of the groups we are working with to become the Italy licensee for one of our U.S. restaurant brand clients, owns and operates almost 100 restaurants in Northern Italy. They are 100% shutdown with hundreds of employees impacted.

As a Diamond Medallion frequent flyer with 2.5 million miles on Delta, it was interesting to read that Delta Air Lines will emerge as a “smaller” carrier, following the Coronavirus crisis, warns chief financial officer Paul Jacobson, as the airline prepares to wind down the majority of its schedule by April. “We’re going to be smaller coming out of this,” he told employees during an internal webinar last week.

Rod Young, global chairman of Cartridge World and chairman of Sydney-based DC Strategy Group, said “the wild card in looking forward for the Asia Pacific region is the Coronavirus pandemic and this is written in the expectation that the response by China and the rest of the world will see the community and the economy recover some normality after a significant impact on global growth and consumer habits.”

Our company’s associate for Southeast Asia, Sean Ngo, CEO and co-founder of VF Franchise Consulting, Ho Chi Minh City, says “people in Asia took the Coronavirus issue much more seriously earlier than in the West, because of their SARs experience in 2003 and the region is expected to gradually recover in the next – three to six months. Countries in Southeast Asia closed all international flights, while only allowing for domestic travel. The main concern in countries like Vietnam, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines is about the virus sneaking back into these countries from international visitors.”

An AmCham China webinar from Beijing late last week had the top China-based executives of four international companies explaining how they handled the coronavirus shutdown starting in late February. They said their order of priorities were: (1) their people; (2) their internal business; (3) their suppliers; and (4) their relationships with government regulators. Wisdom for us all in these times.

This immense disruption has slowed down new business development around the world. But it is also causing companies to evaluate their businesses, in order to fine tune operations and systems and better prepare for a brighter and stronger future.

Contact me directly at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com to learn how to protect and grow your brand in the current business climate.


The Fastest 2 Minutes in International Business

Our GlobalTeam™ of highly experienced international project managers – on the ground in 32 countries – contributed to the following brief summary of the franchise world opportunities for 4th quarter 2015.

Asia China
Japan
Malaysia
Mongolia
The Philippines
Thailand
Viet Nam
Watch the consumer economy not the overall GDP growth.
Large corporations are investing in new consumer projects.
Ringgit drop of 25% against the US$ plus political unrest.
US pizza and coffee franchises flourishing. Seriously.
Middle class buying power accelerating.
Stable politics. Military dictatorships often are stable.
US sailors on shore leave, 6%+ GDP growth.
Americas Argentina
Brazil
Canada
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
USA
You still get paid in soybeans, if at all.
Economy is stalled, inflation climbing, corruption rife.
Tim Horton’s and Burger King are now one???
New President negative on business. Investment stopped.
Show me the money and where it came from.
Mexico City, Monterrey and Cancun booming.
Lima is a city of cranes and new foreign F&B brands.
US$15/hour minimum wage means no margins, less jobs.
Europe Ireland
Germany
Poland
Russia
Spain
Turkey
United Kingdom
GDP growth of 3.5% projected for 2016.
Difficult to find investors/risk takers for new foreign brands.
3.5% GDP growth for 2015 is the highest in the EU.
Foreign brands with US$ denominated rents are closed
GDP growth for 2016 estimated to be 2.6%.
Political unrest leading to drop in new project investment.
2.4% GDP growth, but normal investment analysis paralysis.
Middle East Egypt
Saudi Arabia
Dubai
Pent up consumer demand, high growth but scary security.
Challenges to get new businesses open due to regulations.
New building push, large expat influx, airport & airline soaring.
Elsewhere Australia
India
South Africa
GDP growth of 2.6% but falling commodity exports. Jobs iffy?
Not another country, another universe.
Low growth, high unemployment (25%), low new investment

 


The Fastest 2 Minutes in International Business

For 2015, EGS’ U.S. clients are seeking licensees in over 20 countries. Our GlobalTeam™ of highly experienced international project managers on the ground in 35 countries contributed to the following brief summary of the world mid-2015:

 

Asia China
Japan
Malaysia
Mongolia
The Philippines
Thailand
Viet Nam
Citizens: you didn’t really lose money in the Shanghai market.
Large corporations are investing in new consumer projects.
Prime Minister didn’t really put US$1B in his bank account.
U.S. pizza and coffee franchises flourishing. Seriously.
Subic Bay is operating again, U.S. Embassy doubling in size.
Stable politics. Military dictatorships often are stable.
U.S. sailors on shore leave, 6%+ GDP growth.
Americas Argentina
Brazil
Canada
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
USA
You still get paid in soybeans, if at all.
Economy is stalled, inflation climbing, corruption rife.
Tim Horton’s and Burger King are now one???
New President negative on business. Investment stopped.
Still ‘show me the money and where it came from.’
Mexico City, Monterrey and Cancun booming.
Lima is a city of cranes and new foreign F&B brands.
US$15/hour minimum wage means no margins, less jobs.
Europe Ireland
Germany
Poland
Russia
Spain
Turkey
United Kingdom
GDP growth of 3% in 2015, high for the EU.
Difficult to find investors/risk takers for new foreign brands.
3.4% GDP growth for 2015 is the highest in the EU.
Foreign brands with US$ denominated rents are closed
GDP growth for 2015 of 2.9%. Major 2016 comeback.
Finally realized they should shoot at ISIS.
2.4% GDP growth, but normal investment analysis paralysis.
Middle East Egypt
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Pent-up consumer demand, scary security and future.
Challenges to get new businesses open due to regulations.
New building push, large expat influx, airport & airline soaring.
Elsewhere Australia
India
South Africa
Economy soaring but tied to commodity exports. Jobs iffy?
Not another country, another universe.
Low growth, high unemployment (26%), low new investment

Updated: July 27, 2015


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