Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 123, Tuesday, December 10 , 2024
Global trade to hit record $33tn in 2024, uncertainty looms for 2025
Commentary about the 123th Issue: As the year winds down, predictions for 2025 are rolling in, and the outlook for global business is anything but dull. In this edition of my biweekly newsletter, I’m sharing stats, charts, and insights from trusted sources to help you prepare for what’s ahead.
Global trade is set to hit a record $33 trillion in 2024, but uncertainty looms large for 2025. Why? Here’s a glimpse: 71 countries—representing nearly half the world’s population and over half of global GDP— held elections in 2024. Talk about “elections have consequences” on a global scale. The ripple effects will reshape how and where we do business in 2025.
Add to this the impact of upcoming tariffs and China’s aggressive export of excess manufactured goods, and 2025 starts to look like a year of both challenges and opportunities. The need for careful planning and flexibility has never been greater.
And the Chinese government has finally announced new stimulus to try to bring back consumer spending…………
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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.
You will see small ads in each edition for carefully vetted companies that serve international businesses. Please click on the ads or use the QR code to see what each of our carefully chosen advertisers can do to make doing global business easier. Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)
Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/ +1 949 375 1896
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“In the middle of every difficulty lies opportunity.” – Albert Einstein
“The world is a book, and those who do not travel read only one page.” – Saint Augustine
“Alone we can do so little; together we can do so much.” – Helen Keller
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Highlights in issue #122:
Here’s Where The Most Babies Are Born Every Hour
The World’s Biggest Importers of Goods
Global trade to hit record $33tn in 2024, but uncertainty looms for 2025
China eases monetary policy for the first time in 14 years
Top Countries by Computing Power
Revolution Time: AI is Transforming the Franchising Industry
Brand Global News Section: Jolibee® and McDonalds®
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“Top Countries by Computing Power – As of November 2024, the United States has the most systems in the TOP500 ranking, at 172. It also has the highest combined value of maximum achievable performance, at 6.5 million TFlops (Teraflops). After the U.S., other top countries by computing power include Japan, Italy, and Switzerland. Today, China is ranked seventh, with only 63 systems making it into the TOP500—but this ranking is most likely being skewed downwards. Many believe that China is withholding details about its newest supercomputers for geopolitical reasons.”, Visual Capitalist & TOP500, December 1, 2024
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“Global trade to hit record $33tn in 2024, but uncertainty looms for 2025 – Outlook remains uncertain due to risks of expanded trade wars, US policy shifts and geopolitical challenges. The trade value will increase by about $1 trillion this year, reflecting 3.3 per cent annual growth, the UN Trade and Development (Unctad) said in its new Global Trade Update report on Thursday. However, the outlook for next year remains uncertain due to risks of expanded trade wars and geopolitical challenges, prompting calls for strategic action from developing economies. It is clouded by potential US policy shifts, including broader tariffs that could disrupt global value chains and affect trading partners, the report said.”, The National, December 5, 2024
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“(McKinsey & Co.) Global Economics Intelligence executive summary – Third-quarter GDP reports reveal a mixed global economy. China faces an economic slowdown; the United States sees growth; and the eurozone is stable. The IMF forecasts a slow but stable global trajectory into 2025. Unsurprisingly, forecasts for 2024 and 2025 see emerging markets and developing economies growing fastest at 4.2% across both years, while the advanced economies collectively are expected to grow 1.8% annually.”, McKinsey & Co., November 22, 2024
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“Here’s Where The Most Babies Are Born Every Hour – Half of all global births each hour happen in just nine countries, with one in four taking place in India or China. Five of the nine are in Asia and another three in Africa, with the U.S. the only representative from the rest of the world. However, birth rates are falling across the globe. Combined with low immigration and steady death rates, population declines are expected soon for countries like China.”, Visual Capitalist & UN Population Prospects, December 6, 2024
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“Protiviti-Oxford survey shows ‘us vs. them’ disconnect in how global execs view data privacy – 86% of executives say they are confident or extremely confident their company is doing everything it possibly can to protect customer data. Only 8% of global executives say they are concerned or extremely concerned about their company’s ability to protect customer and client data over the next five years. 80% of global business leaders say AI will be beneficial for their company’s data privacy and cybersecurity strategies over the next five years. Only 5% said AI would be harmful to those efforts.”, Protiviti-Oxford survey Executive Outlook on the Future of Privacy, 2030.
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“The World’s Biggest Importers of Goods – Today, 10 countries account for imports worth $12.4 trillion, representing more than half of the global total. From the U.S. to India, the world’s leading importers are characterized by robust economies and sizable consumer markets. Factors such as business investment, disposable income, and exchange rates also play a significant role in shaping import dynamics. Due to its large consumer base and advanced economy, the U.S. is the world’s largest importer of many product categories including cars, electronics, industrial machinery, and pharmaceuticals.”, Visual Capitalist & The World Trade Organization, November 27, 2024
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“Supply chain inventory inertia – 2020 marked a year of unparalleled supply chain chaos largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, disruptions still persist and, worryingly, many companies seem to be easing their focus on supply chain resilience… in the latest McKinsey Global Supply Chain Leader Survey, while 47 percent of respondents plan to maintain current inventory levels, 46 percent anticipate decreasing or nixing risk buffers, with inventories dropping to or below prepandemic levels. Only 7 percent intend to up network inventory.”, McKinsey & Co., December 3, 2024
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“Why Europe’s Vaunted Car Industry Is in Crisis, in Charts – New tariffs under Donald Trump would pose yet another challenge for Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and BMW. Europe’s carmakers used to rule the world. Now they are fighting battles on every front. At home, tougher emissions rules are forcing them to sell more electric vehicles, which are less profitable. In China, the rise of local competition is bringing the curtain down on a golden era for German brands. The latest threat is in the U.S., where President-elect Donald Trump champions tariffs. The turmoil is already leading to thousands of job losses and risks inflicting further damage on Europe’s economy, which has struggled to grow as fast as the U.S. in recent years. The automotive industry accounts for roughly 7% of gross domestic product in the European Union—far higher than stateside.”, The Wall Street Journal, December 3, 2024
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Global, Regional & Country Travel
“Want to know what will shape travel in 2025? Amadeus thinks it knows – The new year will bring in a new era of travel, defined by nostalgia, personalization and the rise of destination hotels. And with Asia’s tourism sector experiencing a remarkable boom, travelers are increasingly drawn to authentic experiences that foster spontaneous connections, a new survey has revealed. According to the Travel Trends 2025 study by Amadeus and forecasting agency Globetrender, five key trends will shape the travel landscape in 2025.”, Hotels Magazine, November 29, 2024
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Book Review
The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk, and Luck” by David Spiegelhalter delves into the pervasive role of uncertainty in everyday life and how individuals and societies can better understand and manage it.
The book begins by acknowledging that uncertainty is an unavoidable aspect of life, from personal decisions to global challenges like climate change and pandemics. Spiegelhalter argues that instead of fearing uncertainty, we should embrace it as an opportunity to apply critical thinking and probabilistic reasoning.
Spiegelhalter explores real-world examples, such as medical diagnoses, weather forecasting, and financial market predictions, to demonstrate how misinterpreting probabilities can lead to flawed decisions. He critiques the over-reliance on statistical models, highlighting their limitations, especially in complex systems
In the end, Spiegelhalter encourages readers to adopt a mindset that blends logic and flexibility. By understanding the principles of probability and the limitations of certainty, we can navigate life’s uncertainties more confidently and make better-informed decisions. This book serves as both a philosophical exploration and a practical guide to thriving in a world where chance and risk are ever-present.
Editor’s Note: This book is now available in the United Kingdom amd will be available in the USA in March 2025.
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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification
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Country & Regional Updates
Asean Countries – Association of Southeast Asian Nations
“ASEAN: Beneficiaries of Global Trade’s Realignment – More than a sixth of all foreign direct investment in 2023 flowed into the Southeast Asian bloc. Amid global uncertainties, companies diversifying supply chains away from China have driven a surge in foreign direct investment into the countries that make up the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In 2023, FDI inflows to the region reached $236 billion, up sharply from the annual average of $190 billion from 2020 to 2022. ASEAN’s share of global FDI rose to 17 percent in 2023, compared to an average of just 6 percent from 2006 to 2015.”, Geopolitical Futures, December 5, 2024
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Brazil
“Brazilian real hits all-time low on worries over public finances – Brazil’s currency hit an all-time low against the US dollar after government pledges of R$70bn (US$12bn) in cost savings failed to quell investor anxiety over the state of public finances in Latin America’s largest economy. The real fell more than 0.9 per cent to touch R$5.99 to the greenback on Thursday morning, before recovering some of its losses, as investors digested long-awaited measures from the administration of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva designed to balance the budget.”, The Financial Times, November 28, 2024
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China
“GM to Take More Than $5 Billion in Charges on China Operations – U.S. auto giant General Motors Co. expects to take more than $5 billion in charges on its China joint venture with SAIC Motor Corp. Ltd. The two charges are related to a restructuring of the JV — including plant closures — and its reduced value. GM’s China business, once a major profit driver, is now taking on losses, underscoring foreign carmakers’ struggle to compete with domestic rivals in the world’s largest auto market.”, Caixin Global, December 5, 2024
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“China eases monetary policy for the first time in 14 years – China’s top officials have announced that the country would pursue a “moderately loose” monetary policy stance after new data revealed that deflationary forces continued to affect the world’s second-largest economy. The shift to a more accommodative monetary policy stance from a “prudent” approach was the first change in 14 years. It comes as leaders prepare to convene their annual meeting, known as the Central Economic Work Conference, this month to set out their economic agenda for the year ahead. Officials said the country would ‘implement more proactive fiscal policies’ to revive slowing economic growth.”, The Times of London, December 9, 2024
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“China’s Flood of Cheap Goods Is Angering Its Allies, Too – Torrent of exports to the developing world is causing factories to close and killing jobs. A deluge of cheap Chinese goods washing over the developing world is jacking up tensions between China and the Global South, complicating Beijing’s plans to build alliances as it confronts escalating trade tensions with the U.S. But many of those countries are pushing back, as cut-price Chinese imports put pressure on their factories, killing jobs and blocking efforts to grow manufacturing at home.”, The Wall Street Journal, December 3, 2024
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Turkey
“Turkey’s Economy Tumbles Into Recession as Central Bank Tightening Takes Effect – The GDP shrinkage comes after months in which Turkey’s central bank has kept its key interest rate at 50%. Turkey’s economy sank into a recession over the summer, with economic activity squeezed by high interest rates as the country’s central bank sought to tame inflation. Gross domestic product shrank by 0.2% on a quarterly basis between July and September, according to data from the Turkish statistical agency on Friday, matching the contraction of the prior quarter, which had been revised downward. A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of declining economic output.”, The Wall Street Journal, November 29, 2024
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United Arab Emirates
“Heineken to open first brewery in Dubai – Dutch giant signs joint-venture deal that will start producing brands such as Amstel and Birra Moretti in 2027. Its hotels, beaches and attractions, such as the world’s tallest tower, the Burj Khalifa, attracted some 17 million people last year, many from Europe, Russia and India. Known as the party capital of the Gulf because of its beach clubs and more liberal attitude compared with “dry” neighbours such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, it has been implementing secularising reforms to attract more tourists. These include liberalising laws governing alcohol consumption and changing the working week to align with the West.”, The Times of London, November 28, 2024
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United States
Oil, Raspberries, Smartphones: What the U.S. Imports From Canada, Mexico and China – Trump administration could change America’s relationship with its three biggest trading partners. Avocados. Tequila. Laptops. Lumber. These are some of the common items America buys from Canada, Mexico and China. There are also other, perhaps less expected items: America purchases a lot of frozen french fries from Canada. If Donald Trump carries through on his new tariff threats, consumers could see prices rise on lots of basic items for their everyday lives. The cost of home construction might go up, as the U.S. buys billions of dollars of lumber from Canada that is used for such things as framing, flooring and building-interior details including cabinets and furniture.”, The Wall Street Journal, November 28, 2024
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“U.S. Economy Is Doing What Few Others Are: Getting More Productive – Many businesses have been able to do more with less and increase their revenue without passing on higher costs to customers. Inflation and the labor market are both cooling, but a subtle force has powered strong U.S. economic growth nonetheless. Americans keep finding ways to get more done at work. As a result, many businesses have been able to do more with less and up their revenue without passing on higher costs to customers… Over the past five years, quarterly year-over-year productivity growth has averaged 2.1%, a sharp improvement from growth over the 10 years prior. In Europe, productivity has grown by less than a 1% compounded annual rate since 2015. In Canada, annual productivity growth has averaged barely better than 0% since 2019.”, The Wall Street Journal, December 5, 2024
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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades
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Brand & Franchising News
“Revolution Time: AI is Transforming the Franchising Industry – The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into franchising is reshaping the industry. As franchisors and franchisees adapt to the evolving digital landscape, AI is becoming a pivotal tool for enhancing efficiency, improving customer service, and driving growth. By leveraging AI, franchises can enhance their operations, deliver superior customer experiences, and foster a culture of continuous improvement.”, Evan Hackel, Franchising.com, December 2024
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“McDonald’s Vs Jollibee: The Obscure Fast Food Rivalry, Explained – Filipino fast food chain Jollibee provides a remarkable case study in how savvy marketing can create a socio-economic bullseye that even McDonald’s hasn’t fully managed to hit. By 1981, McDonald’s had begun its colossal rollout to the Philippines, putting pressure on smaller franchises to sell out. Tan Caktiong instead flew to the U.S., analyzed what fast food giant McDonald’s was doing right, then sought to infuse that model with his unique understanding of Filipino tastes and values.” Mashed, December 7, 2024
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“New tea drinks enter the US market preparation period lasts a year founders work on local regulations – The potential of the American milk tea market is not small. However, it is not easy to enter the American market and take root. At present, the tea industry in the United States is undergoing a quiet change. From the introduction of pearl milk tea in the 1960s to the emergence of various new tea brands today, the US market has become a new battlefield for global tea brands to compete, with pearl milk tea, fruit tea, light milk tea and other subcategories emerging in the US market. At present, Heytea has opened more than ten stores in the U.S., mainly in the core business districts of New York, Los Angeles, Seattle, Irvine and other cities. In July 2024, Heytea opened its first West Coast store in Beverly Hills, California.” Vicai News (Mandaran), December 5, 2024. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
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“Responsible Franchising: What Does it Really Look Like? Franchising is much more than a business model — it’s a personal journey. A responsible franchisor must be completely transparent and honest about both the opportunities and the risks. Owning a business is hard work, and opening a franchised business is no different. Long hours, challenges, and perseverance are part of the package. A franchisor’s responsibility is to communicate that truth, clearly and early. One of the key components in responsible franchising is ensuring that franchisees are going to be a good fit for the brand. Franchising is a unique way to make entrepreneurial dreams come true, and responsible franchising proves that when partners support one another, everyone wins.”, Kelsey Stuart, Franchising.com, December, 2024
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
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William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.
| To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ |
Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking
For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 122, Tuesday, November 26 , 2024
Almost 100% of Gen Zers Surveyed Admitted to Using AI Tools at Work
Increasing energy demands, the world’s largest exporter, USA companies are accelerating commodity purchases ahead of expected January tariffs, what region has the most copper reserves, and which country imports far more copper than it produces. Almost 100% of Gen Z uses A.I. Who are the world’s biggest exporters and where is the world’s wealth? There has been an astounding 34% increase in the cost of opening a new business since 2019. A great new book on the Road to
Entrepreneurship was just published. Jersey Mikes® sells to Blackstone for U$8 billion and YUM China is focused on 20,000 locations in that country.
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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.
You will see small ads in each edition for carefully vetted companies that serve international businesses. Please click on the ads or use the QR code to see what each of our carefully chosen advertisers can do to make doing global business easier. Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)
Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/ +1 949 375 1896
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“A problem well stated is a problem half-solved.”, Charles F. Kettering. Compliments of Beth Adkisson, Vistage Master Chair
“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.” – Mark Twain
“If one does not know to which port one is sailing, no wind is favorable.” – Lucius Annaeus Seneca
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Highlights in issue #122:
- Brand Global News Section: YUM China, Jersey Mike’s®, KFC® and Taco Bell®
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B2B Payments Platform For Global Businesses
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“The World’s 30 Largest Exporters – As protectionism continues to rise around the world, global trade flows are adapting. Despite facing a wave of tariffs, China’s goods exports show resilience. In 2023, China’s export volumes neared all-time highs as the price of its manufactured exports fell 10%, on average. Overall, the world’s largest exporter delivered $500 billion in goods to America last year, but this could drastically change under the Trump administration. Last year, global exports of goods totaled $23.8 trillion, declining by 5% compared to 2022. Overall, the dollar value of exports dropped across 20 of the top 30 largest exporters in the world as the number of trade restrictions rose to almost 3,000 worldwide—approximately fivefold levels seen in 2015. Visual Capitalist & the World Trade Organization, November 21, 2024
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“Almost 100% of Gen Zers Surveyed Admitted to Using AI Tools at Work – Here’s Why They Say It Is a ‘Catalyst’ for Their Careers. Despite most of Gen Z thinking that their jobs could be replaced with AI in the next decade, the vast majority are still using AI to help complete office tasks — and they’re open about it. A new survey released on Monday from Google assessed the AI habits of 1,005 full-time U.S.-based knowledge workers aged 22 to 39. Google called the group “young leaders” because they’re currently in leadership positions or aspire to hold one at work. The survey found that 93% of Gen Z respondents from 22 to 27 years old are using two or more AI tools like ChatGPT or Google Gemini AI per week. In comparison, 79% of millennials ages 28 to 39 indicate that they’re doing the same.”, Entrepreneur magazine, November 25, 2024
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“Global Wealth Distribution by Region in 2023 – Wealth distribution varies significantly across the world’s regions, reflecting the economic disparities shaped by differences in development, resource availability, and financial access. The data comes from the UBS Global Wealth Report 2024 and encompasses 56 markets representing an estimated 92.2% of total global wealth. The UBS report’s data does not include a majority of African countries. The majority of adults in the lowest wealth bracket (under $10K) are concentrated in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, where nearly 70% of people in this wealth bracket being from the region. On the other end, the highest wealth bracket (over $1M) is dominated by the Americas along with the grouped region of Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA). Visual Capitalist and the UBS Global Wealth Report, November 12, 2024
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“The surprising stagnation of Asia’s middle classes – It could shake up everything from profits to politics. In August Indonesia’s statistician-in-chief, appeared in parliament with bad news. The country’s middle class had shrunk. Between 2021 and 2024, 6m Indonesians had fallen into the “aspiring middle class”, an official euphemism for being a stone’s throw away from poverty. The middle-class share of the population had fallen to 17% from 22% before the pandemic. Asked about the grim trend the next day, Joko Widodo, then the president, deflected: ‘This issue exists in almost all countries.’ Between 1991 and 2014, the average annual growth rate in the number of Asian middle-class households was 6%, according to our analysis. In the past decade, it has slowed to 2%. In a few countries, including China, it has shrunk. Exclude India, where the middle class is still growing, and Asia’s middle classes have stagnated. At stake are the futures of 2.7bn people in the middle class, or 72% of the population of developing Asia.”, The Economist, November 21, 20242024
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Simple, secure currency transfers
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“Increase In Start-up Costs By Industry – At last week’s fall advisory board meeting of the Titus Center for Franchising at Palm Beach Atlantic University Edith Wiseman, President at FRANdata, presented this slide which shows the increase in cost to start-up a single franchise unit in various industries over the past 5 years. The average single unit start-up cost increased 34% from 2019 until this year.
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US Trade Deficits By Country – This chart visualizes the estimated US trade deficits with its top 10 trading partners in 2023. China remains the country with the largest trade deficit for the United States, at approximately $382.9 billion. Mexico is the second-largest deficit country, with around $130.5 billion. These are estimated figures based on recent economic reports. The data represents the difference between imports and exports. The data for this chart is extracted from McKinsey & Co., International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Economic Forum, the Financial Times and the Economist, November 2024
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“Emerging energy demands – Global energy demand has taken off once again after a dip in 2020. It is projected to grow 11 percent by 2050 if momentum continues at its current pace. Most of the energy demand growth is expected in emerging economies such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), India, and the Middle East, senior partner Alessandro Agosta and colleagues note. ASEAN countries in particular are expected to propel this growth, which may reshape global energy trade flows.” McKinsey & Co., November 15, 2024
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Book Review
The Road to Entrepreneurship Starts With Why: Drastic Steps to Success by Toni Harris Taylor, Azaniah Israel, Carol Schillne, Gloria Solomon, Jeanna Bumpas, Lea Rutherford, Lisa McClease Kelly, Melanie Cotten, Pankaj Kumar , Patrika Romano and Keith Gerson. This just published book is an empowering anthology that challenges aspiring entrepreneurs to dig deep and uncover their true motivations. This book is more than a guide; it’s a collection of powerful stories from individuals who have faced significant hurdles yet persevered, driven by a clear sense of purpose—their “Why.”
The premise is simple yet profound: understanding why you want to be an entrepreneur is crucial to navigating the highs and lows of the journey. Each chapter introduces a different voice, offering insights into the contributors’ personal struggles and triumphs. From overcoming financial obstacles to embracing bold, life-changing decisions, the contributors reveal the drastic steps they took to achieve success. Their authenticity makes this book relatable, and their stories are a testament to resilience and the transformative power of self-awareness.
Taylor’s editorial touch ensures the lessons are practical, not just motivational. She provides actionable advice, encouraging readers to connect their business goals with their passions and core values. The book also emphasizes the importance of community, mentorship, and embracing risks—valuable themes for any entrepreneur.
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Keith Gerson and Bill Edwards Join Forces To Offer Trusted Suppliers To The Franchise Community
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Country & Regional Updates
China
“China’s job market braces for record number of fresh graduates next year – Ministry estimates that number of university graduates next year will hit a record 12.22 million. This year, as an estimated 11.79 million graduates flooded the job market, the unemployment rate for 16- to 24-year-olds, excluding students, rose in July and August, when it reached 18.8 per cent, the highest level since the data was revised last year.”, South China Morning Post, November 14, 2024
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“Mondelēz International increases investment in China – Snack giant expands into baking market. As the world’s largest manufacturer of baked goods and chocolate products, Mondelēz International has many well-known brands, including “Oreo”, “Xuanmai”, “Qiduoduo”, “Taiping” and “Toblerone” chocolate, which are well-known to Chinese consumers. With rising raw material prices, inflationary pressure and reduced consumer spending, Mondelēz is facing a new transformation cycle. Mondelēz China President François Frédéric said: “The Chinese market is the strategic growth engine of Mondelēz worldwide. China has a huge middle class, the number of which is still expanding, and the pace of urbanization is accelerating, which is a huge opportunity for every foreign-invested enterprise. This huge investment is the best reflection of this and means that Mondelēz’s development in China has entered a new stage.”, eeo.com.cn, November 19, 2024. Translation and article provided by Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
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Euro Zone
“Eurozone growth gap to widen with US, as Brussels cuts forecasts – Germany’s economic struggles weigh down region as US continues to outpace Europe. The Eurozone economy is set to fall further behind the US, the European Commission said on Friday, as it downgraded its 2025 growth forecast for the region to 1.3 per cent. While Germany, France and Italy are all expected to grow less in 2025 than was anticipated by the commission in May, Spain’s projections were upgraded. It is expected to remain the fastest-growing large EU economy for the second consecutive year after a strong 2024.”, The Financial Times, November 15, 2024
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India
“India’s economy will soon overtake Japan’s – Will that cause an “India shock” for the world economy? China overtook Japan in 2010 to become the world’s second largest economy, a title Japan had held for almost 40 years. Will the world see such a rise again? India hopes so. In 2025 it could overtake Japan to become the second-biggest economy in Asia and the fourth largest in the world (behind America, China and Germany). India’s population is already bigger than China’s and its economy is likely to grow significantly faster in the next few years. India’s leaders want its GDP to reach $5trn by 2028 and its exports of goods and services to reach $1trn apiece by 2030.”, The Economist, November 20, 2024
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“Unilever to Double Down on India Under New Strategic Shift – CEO Hein Schumacher said India is the best opportunity for Unilever over the next couple of years and will be the key for all its group businesses. He added that India’s gross domestic product per capita is estimated to grow to about 4,500 euros ($4,713) by 2033, representing an 85% increase in 10 years.”, The Wall Street Journal, November 22, 2024
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Latin America
“The World’s Copper Stronghold – Copper is vital to U.S. national, economic, and energy security. Everything—from clean energy technologies, electronics, and automotives, to power transmission infrastructure, data centers, and defense systems—depends on copper. However, the United States only mines 5 percent of the world’s copper. Latin America, which cumulatively mines nearly half (46 percent) of the world’s raw copper—the largest share of any global region—holds significant potential as a sourcing partner. Chile and Peru have the two largest copper reserves globally. To meet the Biden administration’s net-zero carbon emissions targets, American annual copper supply will need to double by 2035. Infrastructure for artificial intelligence and data centers could require a projected additional 2.6 million tons of copper. By 2030, the International Energy Agency predicts that the total copper production from existing mines and mines under construction will only meet 80 percent of the world’s copper needs.”, Center for Strategic and International Studies, November 13, 2024
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United States
“American Companies Are Stocking Up to Get Ahead of Trump’s China Tariffs – Businesses plan to stockpile, raise prices and accelerate shift to manufacturing elsewhere. American businesses are dusting off a playbook they used during Trump’s first term: stocking up on imported goods before tariffs are enacted. They are also considering how to cope with the levies if and when enacted—whether they will be able to raise prices and whether they will need to find alternatives to their Chinese manufacturers. Already, exports from China surged last month, which some economists think could have been driven at least in part by front-loading amid uncertainty around election results. Outbound shipments from China rose nearly 13% in October from a year earlier, well above consensus expectations and up sharply from 2.4% growth in September. Chinese exports growth should remain strong through the next few months because of front-loading, Wall Street economists said.”, Wall Street Journal, November 29, 2024
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Vietnam
“Under Trump Tariffs, ‘Made In Vietnam’ Will Be The New ‘Made In China’ – For decades, the Southeast Asian nation has opened its doors to major firms like Apple, Samsung and Intel. Now it’s poised to do even bigger business. ‘If previously it was made in China, now it’s going to be made in Vietnam,’ Jason Miller, a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, told Forbes. ‘That production is not coming back to America.’ Vietnam has a number of advantages over other regional rivals like India. First, as a single-party authoritarian state, Vietnam can and does set new business-friendly policy quickly. Additionally, the country is geographically well-positioned: it already has three of the world’s top 50 busiest ports, and is next-door to China, making trade and logistics between the two countries easier. Critically, Vietnam also has a free-trade agreement with the European Union – the only other regional country besides Singapore to have one.”, Forbes, November 20, 2024
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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades
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Brand & Franchising News
“He Bought a Sub Shop as a Teen. Now He’s Selling Jersey Mike’s for $8 Billion – Peter Cancro started slinging subs at his local shop at 14. Now he’s selling the national chain he built to Blackstone. ‘We’re not a chain. We’re the mom-and-pop shop in every town,’ Cancro said in an interview last year. Cancro declined to comment for this article through a spokeswoman.
Cancro kept the formula simple: meat and cheese sliced right in front of a customer, fresh dressings and a large amount of food for the money. Another key ingredient: Franchisees are tasked with keeping deep ties in the communities in which they operate. Jersey Mike’s did $3.3 billion in U.S. sales across 2,680 locations last year, its revenue growing 25% from 2022 levels, according to Technomic. Cancro had long contemplated what’s next for his business. During the interview last year, he said he could consider Jersey Mike’s going public but had no specific plans. He was most focused on growth, with a target of reaching 10,000 sub shops in the U.S. one day.
Blackstone has spent the past three years getting Cancro comfortable with a deal, people familiar with the talks said. Cancro wasn’t going to hand over control to someone who didn’t understand his vision and Jersey Mike’s focus on fresh ingredients and ample portions that customers have grown to love and expect, the people said.”, The Wall Street Journal, November 22, 2024
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“Yum China targets 20 000 stores – accelerated franchising – Yum China, operator of KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell and Lavazza, reported robust third quarter results, aiming to operate 20,000 stores by 2026 and vowing to strengthen franchising efforts. The company said its strategic focus on operational efficiency and innovation has yielded impressive results, with a total store count reaching 15,861, including 11,283 KFC and 3,606 Pizza Hut locations. In the third quarter alone, the company opened 438 new stores, with franchisees contributing 145 new stores, accounting for around a third of the total. Customer loyalty has been a cornerstone for Yum China, with the total membership of KFC and Pizza Hut surpassing 510 million. Member sales now account for about 64 percent of system-wide sales for both brands combined.”, China Daily, November 19, 2024
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“Q&A: offer and sale of franchises in Chile – Franchising is very widespread in Chile and most of the biggest international brands are already in the country due to its franchising development. The main sectors are clothing, food and beverages, convenience stores, drug stores, car rental, dry cleaning, language academies and real estate brokers, etc. In general, Chile has a business-friendly environment, as it has been recognised in various rankings and studies, such as the business environment ranking developed by the Economic Intelligence Unit, which ranks Chile 30th worldwide and as the most prominent country in Latin America. there are no specific regulatory barriers and the relation between franchisor and franchisee will be ruled mainly by what they have freely agreed.”, Porzio Rios Garcia, Lexology, July, 2024
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“Jollibee parent fully acquires Hong Kong’s Michelin-rated Tim Ho Wan dim sum chain – Jollibee Food Corporation buys remaining 8 per cent stake in company for S$20.2 million. Jollibee Food Corporation, which runs fast-food chains across Asia, owned 92 per cent of the dim sum company in January, and the latest deal gives it full ownership. Tim Ho Wan runs about 80 stores in 11 markets including Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, Melbourne, Tokyo, Macau, South Korea and Manila. The deal comes at a time when Hong Kong’s food and beverage industry faces an uphill battle to retain customers, with many residents crossing the border to mainland China for leisure. Consumption has also slowed on the mainland, with Beijing rolling out a raft of stimulus measures in a bid to electrify the economy.”, South China Morning Post, November 6, 2024
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To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here https://insider.edwardsglobal.com
===========================================================================================
Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.
| To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ |
Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking
For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 121, Tuesday, November 12 , 2024
The World’s Elections Have Consequences
This edition is primarily focused to the projected impact on doing business around the world post USA national election last week. The new USA administration that will take office on January 20th has said that it will take a different economic, political, diplomatic and business approach here at home and in other countries than the current administration that has been in office and in charge of economic and foreign policy for the past almost 4 years. In this edition we look at what numerous reports say will be the business policies that those of us who do business in other countries will need to factor into our plans in order to be successful going forward.
On other matters, Starbucks® is putting into place an innovate supply chain strategy. McKinsey looks at how countries compare in productivity. Consumer anger over high prices piles pressure on politicians. The top 10 countries by value of all their natural resources. The global economy is returning to normalcy (??). Wynn is bulding a casino in the United Arab Emirates!! And the surprise rich country with the worst mobile-phone service!
This Edition’s Book Review: Adam Smith’s “The Wealth of Nations”, written 250 years ago, is still hugely relevant in global business today. Smith’s concept of the “invisible hand” explains how, when people act in their self-interest, markets naturally move toward efficiency, creating a win-win for society. It’s the foundation of how free-market economies work – basically, capitalism as we know it today.
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Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with any questions, comments and we welcome contributions.
The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.
Editor’s Note: You will see small ads in each edition for carefully vetted companies that serve international businesses. These small, focused, vetted ads are in place of charging subscriptions to our readers. Please click on the ads or use the QR code to see what each of our carefully chosen advertisers can do to make doing global business easier.
Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/ +1 949 375 1896
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“I’ve learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel.” – Maya Angelou
“Everything is going to be fine in the end. If it’s not fine, it’s not the end.”, Attributed to Oscar Wilde
“When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth”, Sherlock Holmes+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Highlights in issue #121:
- Brand Global News Section: Jolibee®, Starbucks®, Wendys® and Wingstop®
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B2B Payments Platform For Global Businesses
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Special Section: Elections Have Consequences
As my readers here in the USA and in other countries are aware, there was an election here in the USA last week. The surprise result will significantly impact the way we do business going forward not just in the USA but around the world. I have spoken to the Global Chamber and will give a webinar on the impact of the USA election on global business. What follows is a projection based on numerous articles and reports. This is NOT a political summary.
What happens in the USA has an impact in Asia, Latin America, Europe and the Middle East. The change in government direction here at home will make it easier to do business in some countries and more difficult in others. It is expected that the new USA administration will impose tariffs on products and services coming into the USA as soon as January. Other countries can be expected to add tariffs to what they export to the USA. This will hurt USA exports as it will cost more to buy them in other countries.
Overall, there have been major national elections in 71 countries in 2024 covering 50% of the world’s population and over 50% of the world’s Gross Domestic Product. Businesses across the world are now trying to figure out what the new political and economic environment will be in 2025 as a result of all these elections. Political stability may change substantially in countries the new USA administration target for tariffs and sanctions. Other examples of business changes that can and will come from national elections are taxes going up or down, more or less regulations, changes in currency export policy, tariffs in both directions and labor costs to name but a few. The ‘Financial Times’ reports that most ruling parties in countries around the world lost a share of control as a result of votes in their countries this year.
Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency is set to disrupt trans-Atlantic relations, likely escalating trade tensions, weakening already limited cooperation on climate and tech policy, and straining EU unity on defense and support for Ukraine. The key is to figure out what impact on doing business in European Union countries if the Ukraine war is solved or of it expands due to the new USA President’s foreign policy after January 20thwhen he takes over.
For example, it is expected on January 20th when the new USA administration takes over among the first executive orders will be the reimposition of oil sanctions on Iran that could result in their daily production dropping from 4 million barrels a day to 2 million barrels or less a day. This will have an impact on the worldwide price of oil and will cost China about 40% more to pay for their oil imports as they have been getting very cheap oil from Iran the past two years.
With the U.S. increasing tariffs on imports, particularly from countries like China, businesses may face rising costs on goods and raw materials. This could prompt companies to rethink their supply chains and even relocate production closer to their primary markets to avoid steep tariffs and trade barriers.
As the U.S. enacts new tech, data privacy, and energy policies, other nations are likely to follow suit with similar but distinct regulations. This means foreign companies will need to navigate a patchwork of rules, especially in industries like telecommunications, software, and cloud services, where data privacy and localization are crucial. Managing compliance across different countries may become more challenging and costly as each region enforces its own version of these standards.
The U.S. trade policies could also encourage allies to strengthen or create new regional trade agreements, such as within the EU or ASEAN. For foreign companies, this will mean continuing to shift their supply chains toward countries with more stable trade relationships, gradually moving operations away from traditional manufacturing hubs (China). The added uncertainty from tariffs, regulatory shifts, and currency fluctuations may further disrupt financial stability for businesses, potentially requiring them to hedge their bets by diversifying investments and managing risk more proactively.
Furthermore, as immigration restrictions tighten, global talent mobility may become limited. Foreign companies that depend on specialized talent across borders might turn to remote work or emphasize developing local talent pools, impacting operational efficiency.
We believe that the global business landscape will likely experience increased volatility and complexity in the coming years. Companies that can adapt by revising strategies, maintaining flexible supply chains, and keeping compliance agile will be best positioned to navigate the challenges and opportunities ahead. Time to update that Going Global’ strategic business plan!
Here are a number of articles from information sources both here in the USA and in other countries.
The Impact of the U.S. Elections on Trade and International Supply Chains
The likely winners and losers in Trump presidency
Trump re-election entrenches global instability
Wall Street girds for Trump 2.0: Tariffs, tax cuts and volatility
So, what does a Trump presidency mean for markets?
China Nears Record $1 Trillion Trade Surplus as Trump Returns
Here’s what’s at stake in the Middle East under Trump’s second term
Trump’s Return Looks to Upend US Foreign Policy Once Again
Welcome to Trump’s world – His sweeping victory will shake up everything
What Trump’s Win Means for the Economy
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“Economically complex, highly productive – Countries with higher economic complexity scores—a calculation based on the diversity and complexity of a country’s exports—tend to have greater labor productivity. This may suggest a potential link between a nation’s economic structure and its overall productivity levels, McKinsey global managing partner Bob Sternfels and senior partner Tracy Francis and coauthors explain. Higher-income G-20 countries shifted from agrarian to industrial and service-based economies, resulting in higher economic complexity scores. Conversely, many middle-income economies tend to have relatively low economic complexity due to their reliance on commodities.”, McKinsey & Co., November 7, 2024
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“The Global Economy’s Return to Normalcy – Economists are now focused on implementing the next phase of recovery. International Monetary Fund data shows the global economy has stabilized since the pandemic shock four and a half years ago. Inflation has largely eased, though rates remain higher in developing and emerging markets than in advanced economies. Global gross domestic product held steady, bolstered by economic growth in the U.S. and Asia, while projections for commodity-dependent economies in the Middle East, Central Asia and sub-Saharan Africa have been revised downward. Economists are now focused on implementing the next phase of recovery, which demands tighter fiscal policies and structural reforms to boost productivity and sustain growth. They also urged governments to address demographic challenges affecting labor forces. Each of these steps risks fueling renewed political and social pressures.”, Geopolitical Futures, November 8, 2024
Editor’s Note: This analysis is dated three days after the USA election but does not mention the election impact.
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“The World’s Largest Unconnected Populations – The internet has become essential for humanity, with most of the population spending hours online each day. Yet, over 2.5 billion people worldwide still lack internet access. This graphic illustrates the countries with the largest unconnected populations in absolute terms, according to We Are Social as of January 2024. Asia and Africa Have the Largest Unconnected Populations. All 10 countries on the list are located in Africa or Asia. India has the largest unconnected population, with over 684 million individuals offline, representing 47.6% of its population. China has the second-largest unconnected population, at 336 million, though its percentage of offline individuals is relatively lower, at 23.6%.”, Visual Capitalist, Social Canada and World Economic Forum, November 8, 2024
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Simple, secure currency transfers
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“Consumer anger over high prices piles pressure on politicians – Post-Covid inflation rise leaves toxic legacy for governments across rich economies. Discontent over the economy was a key motivator for Republican voters in last week’s US election, exit polling suggested — contributing to vice-president Kamala Harris’s defeat at the hands of Donald Trump. Incumbents in countries including the UK and Japan have also suffered in elections this year, partly because of anger at high living costs. Polling suggests the legacy of inflation will also play a role in national elections next year, including in Germany and Canada.”, The Financial Times, November 10, 2024
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“Top 10 Countries by Value of All Their Natural Resources – Natural resources are the backbone of modern manufacturing, necessary to produce everything around us. According to 2021 data from Statista, 10 countries dominate the global natural resource landscape, each holding vast reserves critical for various industries. Russia leads the pack with natural resources valued at $75 trillion, largely consisting of coal, natural gas, oil, and rare earth metals. At the end of 2018, Russia’s Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment valued the country’s mineral reserves at approximately $1.44 trillion. In terms of global share, Russia is unmatched in natural gas, holding the world’s largest proven reserves at 1.32 quadrillion cubic feet as of 2020—nearly 20% of the global total. Russia also ranks as a gold powerhouse.”, Visual Capitalist and Statista, November 7, 2024
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“Forecast of the global middle class population from 2015 to 2030, by region – By 2030, the middle-class population in Asia-Pacific is expected to increase from 1.38 billion people in 2015 to 3.49 billion people. In comparison, the middle-class population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase from 114 million in 2015 to 212 million in 2030. China accounted for over half of the global population for middle-class wealth in 2017. The United States had the highest number of individuals belonging to the top one percent of wealth holders.”, Statista and the Brookings Institute, November 2024
Editor’s Note: This confirms what we have seen in the literature over the past few years for the Asia Pacific region. For example. as of 2024, Indonesia’s middle class comprises approximately 47.85 million individuals, accounting for about 17.1% of the population. (Channel News Asia) The Indonesian government has set an ambitious target to elevate the middle-class population to 80% by 2045, coinciding with the nation’s centennial. (Jakarta Globe).
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Book Review
Adam Smith’s “The Wealth of Nations”, written 250 years ago, is still hugely relevant in global business today. Smith’s concept of the “invisible hand” explains how, when people act in their self-interest, markets naturally move toward efficiency, creating a win-win for society. It’s the foundation of how free-market economies work – basically, capitalism as we know it today.
Smith’s emphasis on the division of labor, where everyone does what they’re best at, set the stage for modern business structure and supply chains. Think about how today’s companies operate: specialized tasks lead to more productivity and competitive edge, just as Smith predicted.
Smith also argued against the old idea that nations get rich by hoarding gold and controlling colonies. Instead, he said wealth comes from productivity, not stockpiling resources. This thinking led to today’s liberal trade policies, encouraging open markets and fewer barriers. So, when companies source globally and countries trade based on their unique strengths, they’re following Smith’s playbook.
While he was all about free markets, he knew that governments need to provide public goods, enforce laws, and keep things fair. Today’s mixed economies still use that balance, allowing free markets to grow while governments step in when needed for the public good.
Overall, The Wealth of Nations is still the backbone of modern economic thought, guiding how businesses and nations operate in a connected world.introduced principles that continue to influence economics and public policy today.
This book is a unique way to understand globalization’s impact on everyday goods, showing how something as simple as a T-shirt reflects the vast, interconnected web of today’s economy.
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Keith Gerson and Bill Edwards Join Forces To Offer Trusted Suppliers To The Franchise Community
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Country & Regional Updates
Canada
“Port of Montreal Employers Move to Lock Out Dockworkers After Final Offer Rejected – The dispute exacerbates the disruption to trade in Canada as a lockout at ports along the West Coast continues. The movement of cargo through Canada’s second-largest seaport halted late Sunday after dockworkers at the Port of Montreal rejected a revised pay offer from employers, heightening stresses on trade as talks aimed at reopening ports on the country’s West Coast faltered.”, The Wall Street Journal, November 10, 2024
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China
“Din Tai Fung, a Taiwan-based restaurant chain, will close several of its mainland China stores as customers lose appetite for pricier meals – The chain’s announcement it would close all its shops in northern China – no alternate Beijing locations for the Yin family – marks the end of a 20-year engagement between the wildly popular restaurant and a consumer base once flush with discretionary income and hungry for new places to spend it. Data from Chinese food and beverage platform Hongcan 18 showed 1.36 million restaurants severed their licences in 2023, more than double the 519,000 closures reported in 2022.”, South China Morning Post, September 4, 2024
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“China sharpens edge in global trade with zero-tariff deal for developing world – China will eliminate tariffs for goods from countries classified as the world’s least developed starting in December, a move expected to lower shipping costs from parts of Africa and Asia and give Beijing more sway in global trade. The zero-tariff treatment for the group of mostly small, non-industrialised countries poses little threat to China’s manufacturing-intensive economy, analysts said, and gives Beijing an edge in emerging markets as the US and Europe attempt to stem the flow of Chinese goods into their own backyards. The scheme will cover all countries the United Nations considers “least developed” that have diplomatic ties to China….”, South China Morning Post, October 30, 2024
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Europe & European Union Countries
“Can Europe’s unity survive as its sense of crisis grows? – The EU needs investment to boost growth and competitiveness, but the debate over who pays has echoes of the financial crisis. The sense of crisis grew on Wednesday after Trump was re-elected US president. Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe his pledges to impose tariffs on US imports from Europe and demand that the continent spend more on its own defence will further curtail economic growth in the EU. Trump has also pledged to roll back swaths of environmental legislation, which EU officials fear will leave European businesses at a further competitive disadvantage. ‘You cannot pay for competitiveness. You have to create the conditions for it,’ says a senior EU diplomat present in Budapest. ‘[And] where is this new money supposed to come from? Borrow against future generations? Or expect other member states to pay for you?’”, The Financial Times, November 7, 2024
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United Arab Emirates
“Inside Wynn Resorts’ $3.9 Billion Gamble On The UAE – With its first casino resort set to open in 2027, a little-known emirate is suddenly an unlikely hot gaming market. Here’s how the U.S. casino giant made a high-stakes bet on its future—and left Abu Dhabi, Dubai and other casino operators in the dust. Wynn Resorts CEOCraig Billings raised eyebrows a year ago when he told investors that the United Arab Emirates was the “the most exciting new market opening in decades.” Outside of Egypt and Lebanon, casinos are practically nonexistent in the Middle East, since majority Muslim countries typically ban gambling. Even more intriguing: At the time Billings was enthusing about the UAE’s gaming future, the kingdom had exactly zero casinos.”, Forbes, November 10, 2024
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United Kingdom
“The rich country with the worst mobile-phone service – 5G networks are fast. Their roll-out is not. Britian has long been a pioneer in telecoms. In 1837 it built the world’s first commercial telegraph; the first transatlantic call was placed from London in 1927; in 1992 a British programmer sent the world’s first text message to a mobile phone. Today it lags rather than leads. A new “core network” using stand-alone technology will need to be installed to get the full benefits of 5G. Last year just 2,000 of the country’s 81,000 mobile base stations were broadcasting stand-alone 5G. In laboratory environments the next generation of mobile networks has reportedly notched up speeds 100 times faster than 5G. Britain is anything but that.”, The Economist, November 11, 2024
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United States
“2024 Election Analysis – After an unprecedented campaign cycle that cost nearly $16 billion, 158 million Americans went to the polls to elect our next set of leaders up and down the ballot. While it may take time to sort out the remaining House and Senate races that will determine the full balance of power in Congress, one thing is certain, President-elect Donald Trump and the new 119th Congress will be met in January with an enormous inbox of global threats and challenges, with escalating threats from foreign rivals, wars raging in Ukraine and the Middle East, and cascading humanitarian crises.
USGLC organized over 1,000 local leaders across the nation – business leaders, veterans, mayors, farmers, community and faith-based leaders to engage hundreds of candidates running for the House and Senate. Some candidates were already well-versed on foreign policy – from their own military service, missionary work, or international business experience – but for many, this was one of their few, if not their only, in-depth discussion about foreign policy and how global diplomacy and development impacts our communities here at home.”, U.S. Global Leadership Coalition (USGLC), November 9, 2024Editor’s Note: This is a very detailed analysis of the USA election with several key ‘election takeaways’.
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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades
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Brand & Franchising News
“Starbucks ramps up supply chain investments for climate resilience – Starbucks, which sources 3% of the world’s coffee, is ramping up investments in its supply chain as experts expect hotter temperatures and changing climates to dramatically transform production and shrink the amount of land suitable for growing in half by 2050. The company is buying two innovation farms in Central America to advance research to protect its coffee supply. The coffee giant said it plans additional farm investments in Africa and Asia as it looks to build an innovation network across the world’s largest growing regions. New innovation farms in Asia and other areas of the world will enable new research tailored to specific geographies and allow Starbucks to scale solutions across the “Coffee Belt” growing regions.”, Supply Chain Dive, October 31, 2024
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“Wingstop unit growth spikes with strong performance – With same-store sales at the chicken-wing chain up nearly 21% in third quarter, almost all from traffic, it’s no surprise franchisees want to open more restaurants. Wingstop on Wednesday reported yet another outstanding performance in the third quarter with domestic same-store sales up nearly 21%. The 20.9% increase, which was almost entirely driven by transactions yet again, wasn’t quite the comparable sales of 28.7% in the second quarter this year, which disappointed Wall Street watchers who were expecting even better sales, sending the stock price tumbling immediately after the report. Still, the chain’s two-year comparable sales topped 36%, and the company still expects to reach 20% same-store sales growth for the year, which far surpasses most public restaurant companies. The shops in the United Kingdom are averaging annual per shop sales of US$3,000,000.”, Restaurant Business Online, October 30, 2024
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“Wendy’s Bets on Palantir AI to Keep Up With $1 Frosty Demand – Program could eventually place orders without human help. Supply chain executive: This will ‘change the way we work’. AI is making inroads in a restaurant industry grappling with increased costs for labor and ingredients after years of high inflation. That’s pushed a sector already operating on tight margins to look even closer at managing expenses. Wendy’s supply chain co-op, an independent group that purchases on behalf of the chain’s restaurants, is betting Palantir’s system will do just that for the burger brand’s 6,000 US locations. Normally, stores keep extra inventory just in case, and that’s become more expensive thanks to inflation.”, Bloomberg, November 7, 2024
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“Jollibee parent fully acquires Hong Kong’s Michelin-rated Tim Ho Wan dim sum chain – Jollibee Food Corporation buys remaining 8 per cent stake in company for S$20.2 million. Jollibee Food Corporation, which runs fast-food chains across Asia, owned 92 per cent of the dim sum company in January, and the latest deal gives it full ownership. Tim Ho Wan runs about 80 stores in 11 markets including Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, Melbourne, Tokyo, Macau, South Korea and Manila. The deal comes at a time when Hong Kong’s food and beverage industry faces an uphill battle to retain customers, with many residents crossing the border to mainland China for leisure. Consumption has also slowed on the mainland, with Beijing rolling out a raft of stimulus measures in a bid to electrify the economy.”, South China Morning Post, November 6, 2024
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To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here https://insider.edwardsglobal.com
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.
| To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ |
Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking
For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 120, Tuesday, October 29 , 2024
The Speed at Which New Technologies Go Mainstream
This 120th edition is one of our longest covering lots of comparisons across the world with NO politics!!! Take a look at these sections especially the speed with which technologies go mainstream (guess which has been the fastest!), record number of ships and containers entering the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, several articles about how A.I. is being used in different types of companies, mall owners and managers are seeing traffic come back despite e-commerce, where countries are on the innovation scale, where consumers around the world prefer local food, Singapore Changi airport goes passportless (?).
Do you know what a ‘Middle Power’ country is? A very timely book review: “The Travels of a T-Shirt in the Global Economy”, Lululemon has 38 stores in Australia (who knew!), guess who leads the world in labor productivity, Germany announces first car plant closing in decades, McDonalds® and Subway® announce huge increases in global stores coming, and the Franchise Association of New Zealand (FANZ) releases their 2024 country survey that shows this country is one of the most franchised in the world.
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Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with any questions, comments and we welcome contributions.
The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.
Editor’s Note: You will see small ads in each edition for carefully vetted companies that serve international businesses. These small, focused, vetted ads are in place of charging subscriptions to our readers. Please click on the ads or use the QR code to see what each of our carefully chosen advertisers can do to make doing global business easier.
Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/ +1 949 375 1896
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“All humans are entrepreneurs, not because they should start companies but because the will to create is encoded in human DNA.” – Reid Hoffman
“In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.” – Warren Buffett
“When everything seems to be going against you, remember that the airplane takes off against the wind, not with it.” – Henry Ford
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Highlights in issue #120:
- Brand Global News Section: 7-11®, Chick-fil-a®, Kenny Rogers Roasters®, McDonalds®, and Subway®
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B2B Payments Platform For Global Businesses
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“The Speed at Which New Technologies Go Mainstream – The invention of the internet, email, and mobile phones also followed a roughly 30-year cycle until mass adoption. Each technology required substantial investment and lead time to establish the necessary communications infrastructure, including cables, towers, and transmitters. However, the time between the invention of the first smartphone and the release of the first iPhone dropped to just 13 years. By 2010, smartphones began to overtake traditional mobile phones in the market. Now we turn to generative AI. Although the concept dates back to the 1960s, recent developments in generative adversarial networks (GANs) and transformers have propelled machine learning to an advanced scale. After the release of ChatGPT and Gemini, the mainstream adoption of AI for everyday tasks is now underway especially as big tech companies integrate it into their products. In fact, Bank of America researchers estimate that “AI-driven efficiencies” will be seen across sectors as early as 2025.’, Visual Capitalist and Bank of America, October 14, 2024
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“The world’s most innovative country – A ranking of 133 countries shows that the global innovation boom is stalling. The index adopts a broad definition of innovation. It includes “outputs”, such as patents, scientific publications and high-tech exports, as well as “inputs”, such as spending on research and development (r&d), the number of engineering graduates, and venture-capital deals. The index takes into account a country’s adoption and use of technology, as well as its production of it. Countries that import a lot of high-tech products and spend liberally on intellectual property from abroad score better on the index. Some of the indicators are unconventional, including the number of feature films a country makes and the amount of changes it makes to collaborative software projects on GitHub, a popular platform for sharing data and code.”, The Economist, October 3, 2024
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“Middle Powers, Polarity and the International System – Second-tier countries are arguably as influential as ever. The great power competition currently underway has created space for second-tier states, or middle powers, to emerge as strong as ever. Alarmed by the growing disruptions to the post-World War II order and what they see as the inability of greater powers to manage the international system, regional actors such as Turkey, Indonesia, Kazakhstan and Australia will begin to play larger geopolitical roles as the U.S. struggles to contain the likes of Russia, China and Iran.’, Geopolitical Futures, October 24, 2024
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“AI Implementation Roadmap: The Executive’s Guide to Avoiding Million-Dollar Mistakes – As a cybersecurity professional specializing in cybersecurity and AI, I’ve seen firsthand the importance of involving key stakeholders when implementing AI solutions. This guide highlights many essential steps to help ensure a smooth, secure, and compliant AI deployment in your organization. By following all these steps, you’ll be more prepared to deploy AI in your organization while addressing some essential security, legal, and operational concerns. Successful AI implementation is an ongoing process requiring continuous attention and adaptation. AI is here to stay; you want to be thoughtful sooner to avoid costly problems later.”, Foster Institute, August 23, 2024
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Simple, secure currency transfers
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“Gen AI in corporate functions: Looking beyond efficiency gains – In less than two years, generative artificial intelligence (gen AI) has become a mainstream tool with applications across almost every area of the economy. New McKinsey research shows that corporate and business functions—including finance, human resources, and customer care, among others—are ramping up their investment in gen AI technologies. A year ago, early adopters were experimenting with pilot projects based on “minimum viable product” gen AI tools. Now a significant minority have deployed gen AI use cases across their organizations. Comparing this year’s survey with its counterpart from 2023, we see a dramatic acceleration in the engagement with gen AI technologies. The proportion of organizations that are actively using (as opposed to just experimenting with) gen AI in their corporate functions has increased by a factor of five…….Furthermore, of the organizations with successful deployments, more than half are using gen AI daily, with less than 5 percent of respondents reporting intermittent usage of once a month or less.”, McKinsey & Co., October 23, 2024
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“The Business Ready (B-READY) project aims to build a comprehensive instrument panel that by 2026 will enable about 180 economies to dial in the precise settings needed for a vibrant private sector development—the combination of conditions that will reduce poverty, advance shared prosperity, and speed up the transition to a low-carbon economy. For too long, though, the focus has been too much on what governments can do for the good of business—and not enough on what businesses can do for the good of all. This report marks a crucial first step to correct that imbalance. It is designed expressly to discourage “a race to the bottom” or simplistic solutions that were the unintended by-product of Doing Business, our previous effort to help countries establish the right conditions for private sector development. Business Ready’s analytical framework recognizes that there is more to a healthy business environment than the “ease of doing business.”, World Bank, October 2024
Editor’s Note: For decades those of us who needed to compare countries across several parameters used the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business index. Then we found out that the data submitted by some countries was ‘overly optimistic’ to say the least. Now that analysis and comparison has been literally thrown out and a more controlled and unbiased set of data has replaced the literally crooked rankings. This analysis is available now for about 50 countries, mostly emerging markets. By 2026 it should be available for 180 countries and should become, once again, a go by standard for market researchers.
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“Global Economics Intelligence executive summary – The OECD sees the global economy improving. Central banks’ strategies are diverging, with some cutting rates and others raising them. China announces a major stimulus, and the US Federal Reserve cuts rates. Positive news is emerging from various sources, suggesting the global economy might be turning a corner, though substantial risks remain. Central banks face a challenging balancing act between managing inflation and promoting growth, which led to divergent actions this month. Several banks cut rates to boost the economy in September, while others tightened policy to tame inflation. Although headline inflation is approaching central banks’ targets, core inflation remains elevated.”, McKinsey & Co., October 21, 2024
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“Worldwide Consumers Prefer Buying Local Food – Latest research from YouGov reveals that, on average, three in five consumers worldwide say they prefer purchasing food from their own country (60%) and preference for buying local food is ≥10% higher among consumers concerned about climate change.”, Agtools.com, October 24, 2024. Compliments of Martha Montoya, CEO and Co-Founder of AgTools, Irvine , California
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“Cargo On-Time Rates Are Dismal. Two Shipowners Have a Plan to Fix That. In new alliance, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd aim to cut docking costs and improve on-time performance. Two of the world’s biggest shipping companies have a new plan to reduce cargo delivery delays. The answer, they say, is to use bigger ships and cut the number of port calls each ship makes. Shippers have been plagued by vessel diversions from the Red Sea and the Suez Canal since late last year after a series of attacks on commercial vessels by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. The longer routes around South Africa have added at least two weeks of sailing time and pushed freight rates higher.”, The Wall Street Journal, October 20, 2024
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“Busiest US Trade Hub Beat Pandemic Cargo Record in Third Quarter – LA, Long Beach each broke records set during the pandemic. The busiest container complex in the US surpassed a record set during the pandemic last quarter as businesses continue to bring goods in ahead of potential tariff increases and sought to avoid hurricane and labor disruptions at alternate ports. The LA and Long Beach ports — which together account for roughly a third of all US container imports — each had their busiest ever peak season this year. Cargo volumes flowing into and out of Southern California beat the record set in the second quarter of 2021, when demand for consumer goods and supply chain snarls caused a massive backlog of ships offshore and a pileup of containers on the docks.”, Bloomberg, October 18, 2024
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“Shift to electric vehicles will have far-reaching impact, IMF says – The global transition toward electric vehicles will have “far-reaching” impacts on investment, production, international trade and employment, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday as part of its update to global economic growth forecasts. The analysis was included in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, which was released as policymakers meet at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings this week to discuss efforts to boost global growth, deal with debt distress and finance the green energy transition. “The rising adoption of electric vehicles represents a fundamental transformation of the global automotive industry. It will have far-reaching consequences,” the IMF said. “In these scenarios, employment declines in the automotive sector, and labor reallocates gradually to less capital-intensive sectors (with lower value added per worker),” the IMF said.”, Reuters, October 22, 2024
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Global & Regional Travel
“Singapore airport goes fully passport-free with biometric clearance – A passport is no longer needed for clearance at Changi Airport, where biometric clearance has been fully implemented across all four terminals, leading to an average passport-less clearance time of 10 seconds. A release from the Immigration and Checkpoints Authority (ICA) says ‘arriving and departing Singapore residents can clear immigration by simply using facial and iris biometrics, without the need to present their passport. All foreign visitors can also enjoy the convenience of passport-less clearance when they depart Singapore.’”, Biometric Update, October 24, 2024
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“AI Agents and the New Era of Hospitality – AI is no longer just a buzzword in hospitality – it’s a disruptive force transforming how properties are managed and guest experiences are delivered. The adoption of AI is not a question of “if” but “when.” The stakes couldn’t be higher for the hospitality industry, which represents a staggering US$4.1 trillion global market. According to World Metrics, 77% of hoteliers believe that AI helps them better understand guest preferences and deliver more personalized experiences, demonstrating just how critical AI has become to stay competitive. Jurny estimates AI will save $112 billion annually in the Airbnb sector alone, further underscoring its transformative economic impact. In the Airbnb industry alone, the shift will be massive, with a 10x boost in productivity, giving birth to a whole new kind of host.”, Jurny, LinkedIn post, Octoberf 22nd, 2024
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Book Review
The Travels of a T-Shirt in the Global Economy by Pietra Rivoli breaks down how a simple T-shirt connects various parts of the world through trade, politics, labor, and economics. Rivoli follows a T-shirt from a Texas cotton field through manufacturing in China, then distribution worldwide. This journey highlights how each step in a product’s lifecycle relies on different economies, regulatory environments, and local business practices. It’s a perfect illustration of the interconnectedness of today’s global trade.
U.S. cotton subsidies and trade restrictions play a huge role in shaping competitive advantages, showing how powerful policies like tariffs impact not only American businesses but also the global market. Rivoli’s analysis of these policies underscores how much governments influence international commerce, from protecting local industries to opening markets. The book dives into labor issues, particularly the conditions in low-wage textile factories. Rivoli sheds light on the ethical dilemmas that come with globalized manufacturing, addressing questions of worker rights, fair wages, and consumer responsibility. Throughout the book, Rivoli demonstrates how regions adapt to shifting economic demands. For example, as industries relocate or production needs change, communities find ways to remain resilient, emphasizing the human side of economic shifts.
This book is a unique way to understand globalization’s impact on everyday goods, showing how something as simple as a T-shirt reflects the vast, interconnected web of today’s economy.
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Keith Gerson and Bill Edwards Join Forces To Offer Trusted Suppliers To The Franchise Community
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Country & Regional Updates
Australia
“Lululemon opens its largest Australian flagship store yet – Lululemon has opened its largest Australian store yet at Emporium Melbourne. The 11,000sqft store is almost triple the size of its previous shop at Emporium and has a significantly larger menswear section. The new store is Lululemon’s ninth Australian project for the year. Earlier, the company opened stores in Chadstone, Geelong and Sorrento. Currently, Lululemon has 38 stores in Australia, with 12 in Victoria.”, Inside Retail Australia, October 22, 2024
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China
“China total profits by enterprise type, annual – A dismal industrial profits and earnings release for September, with profits down 27.1% from a year earlier, following a 17.8% fall in August, while earnings fell 3.5% in the first nine months of the year compared to a 0.5% rise in the January-August period. The decline in profits is the worst seen since the pandemic downturn. SOEs (State Owned Enterprises) were the main drag by enterprise type, with total profits declining 6.5% y/y on a YTD basis. Shareholding enterprises saw a 4.9% y/y YTD decline, while privately-held firms declined 0.6%. Foreign-invested firm profits rose 1.5%, highlighting the underperformance of the mainland economy.”, APAC Daily Chart Book, October 27, 2024
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“China’s GDP growth forecasts edge up as foreign banks respond to stimulus moves – Some international financial institutions have raised their forecasts for China’s economic growth in 2024 in the wake of the raft of stimulus rolled out since late September, tipping Beijing to reach its target of “around 5 per cent”. Forecasts for gross domestic product growth in 2024 – a year addled by tepid retail sales and cool property prices – from the likes of UBS, Moody’s Analytics, Goldman Sachs and Nomura have reached as high as 4.95 per cent. Swiss investment bank UBS on Monday raised its forecast for the world’s second-largest economy from 4.6 per cent to 4.8 per cent “in light of the stronger-than-expected third quarter GDP growth reading and recently announced policy push”, said the research note from its China economist Wang Tao.”, The South China Post, October 21, 2024
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Europe & European Union Countries
Bricks over clicks as shops come back into fashion in Europe – The rise of online shopping has led to swathes of store closures, casting doubt over the future of retail malls and high streets, but in Europe there are signs that shops are back in vogue and are important for helping to drive online sales. European retailers are investing in physical shops to stimulate both online and offline sales as they face increasing competition from giant e-commerce companies, such as fast-fashion group Shein. They also want to capitalise on people’s renewed appetite for visiting shops once COVID-19 lockdowns ended, which has made a Saturday afternoon shopping spree fashionable again. Retailers realise that it is difficult to keep customers without some direct contact with them, said Thomas Joekel, a portfolio manager at Union Investment, which holds shares in LVMVHand Adidas. ‘ This is easier to achieve if you have brick-and-mortar stores rather than just e-commerce,” he said. “On the e-commerce side you can only see pictures but you don’t feel, you don’t smell, you don’t talk to somebody so it’s much more difficult to be optimistic or enthusiastic about a brand,’ he said.”, Reuters, October 28, 2024
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“Steady spending in Europe – Despite a more positive outlook among European consumers, their spending habits remain largely unchanged from the previous quarter, with many continuing to implement savings strategies. Forty-three percent of respondents to a recent McKinsey survey said they had maintained the amount they spent compared with the previous three months, senior partner Jessica Moulton and colleagues note; this proportion is just 3 percentage points higher than at the end of the second quarter. As they had three months ago, a third of consumers indicated they were still carefully tracking expenses and dipping into savings to cover needs.’, McKinsey & Co., October 23, 2024
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Germany
“Volkswagen plans to close at least 3 German plants and cut thousands of jobs – Europe’s largest carmaker tells works council it would slash pay by 10%. The restructuring would mark the first closure of domestic plants in the company’s 87-year history and set up a battle with powerful unions and politicians in Germany, where VW has 300,000 employees. VW’s management has warned that radical measures are needed as Europe’s largest carmaker faces intense competition in China, slowing sales across other major markets and the need to navigate the costly transition to electric vehicles. Thorsten Gröger, chief negotiator at IG Metall, Europe’s largest union, warned that the cost-cutting would provoke ‘resistance of a kind it could never imagine’. Like German rivals Mercedes-Benz and BMW, VW faces falling profits in China as consumers cut spending and local brands such as BYD take market share.”, The Financial Times, October 28, 2024
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Indonesia
“Apple iPhone 16 Sales Banned in Indonesia Over Investment Issue – Other Apple products aren’t subject to the ban. Indonesia has blocked sales of the latest iPhone 16 handsets over what officials say is the company’s non-fulfillment of local investment requirements. Apple’s local unit, PT Apple Indonesia, “has not fulfilled its investment commitment” as required to be able to sell the new iPhone model in the Southeast Asian country, the Ministry of Industry said in a statement Friday. Under an Indonesian policy aimed at supporting domestic industries and reducing dependence on imported products, companies have to meet set requirements for using goods or services sourced from within the country. This can be done via various means, including investments or hiring local workers.”, The Wall Street Journal, October 28, 2024.
Editor’s Note: This policy fails also for international food and beverage brands who wish to import food products that are not available in Indonesia due to either a lack of local infrastructure or lack of required quality to meet the global standards of a foreign brand.
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Southeast Asia
“South-East Asia’s stodgy conglomerates are holding it back – The region’s ageing corporate empires are stuck in the past—and too cosy with politicians. Few parts of the global economy hold more obvious promise than South-East Asia. But when it comes to home-grown businesses, the picture in South-East Asia is murkier. The market value of investible stocks in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand is around $900bn. Those five economies have roughly the same gdp as India but less than half its investible market value (see chart 1). Seven American companies are each worth more than the entire South-East Asian market.Multinational firms hoping to move manufacturing away from China are racing to establish supply chains in the region. Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam are expected to be among the fastest-growing economies in the world during the rest of the decade. Malaysia is likely to join the ranks of the world’s high-income economies soon. Singapore’s importance as a financial hub has grown as foreigners have deserted Hong Kong. Among the top 50 firms in South-East Asia by revenue, only one—Sea, a Singaporean gaming and e-commerce firm—was founded in this century. State-owned enterprises account for 15 of the top 50. Subsidiaries of the region’s tentacular conglomerates account for 14.”, The Economist, October 24, 2024
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United States
“American productivity still leads the world – Innovation and a vibrant tech sector continue to give America a competitive edge. This year the average American worker will generate about $171,000 in economic output, compared with (on purchasing-parity terms) $120,000 in the euro area, $118,000 in Britain and $96,000 in Japan. That represents a 70% increase in labour productivity in America since 1990, well ahead of the increases elsewhere: 29% in Europe, 46% in Britain and 25% in Japan. American workers, simply put, have more tools at their disposal, both the physical kind such as highways and warehouses and the intangible sort in the form of software. With the exceptions of Israel and South Korea, America invests more in r&d than any other country, at roughly 3.5% of gdp. China is the one major power that has closed the gap on r&d spending, but it still trails America by a large absolute margin. The dynamism applies to America’s labour market, too. In any given three-month period about 5% of its workers change jobs. In Italy it takes one year to get the same level of labour turnover. A study in 2020 by the oecd found that among citizens in a large sample of Western countries, Americans were the most likely to move elsewhere for new jobs.”, The Economist, October 14, 2024
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“What Small Business Owners Think – We surveyed 1,200 of them. Here’s what they said. Entrepreneurwanted to know, so we partnered with Faire, an online wholesale marketplace where gift shops, pet stores, clothing boutiques, and other mom-and-pop shops source their products. Faire put five questions out to its retailers, and more than 1,200 responded—revealing their biggest concerns, wins, and what it really takes to keep a small business alive. “These owners are out there fighting every day, making things work, and having an incredible impact on their communities,” says Faire cofounder and CEO Max Rhodes. ‘They’re super resilient.’”, Entrepreneur, October 2024
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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades
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Brand & Franchising News
“Watami acquires Subway’s Japan operations in fast-food pivot – Company looks to move past izakaya pubs to find long-term growth. ‘We will make it a popular brand among young people,” he added, noting that the goal is to change from izakaya operator Watami to Subway operator Watami, said Watami Chairman and President Miki Watanabe at a press conference in Tokyo on Friday. Watami signed a master franchise agreement with Subway for a period of 10 years, giving it exclusive rights to operate the chain in Japan. It also acquired Subway Japan, which had been operating stores there. The operating rights for about 180 existing stores will be transferred to Watami, which will manage them and recruit new franchisees.”, Nikkei Asia, October 26, 2024. Compliments of Ichiro (Roy) Fujita, I, Fujita International, Los Angeles and Tokyo
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“Franchising New Zealand 2024 Survey Has Been Released – This just published survey of the franchise community in New Zealand had these findings: There are 546 business format franchisors in New Zealand in 2024. There is an estimated total of 29,750 units operating in business format franchises. More than 114,300 people are employed directly in business format franchises. Sales turnover for business format franchises was estimated at NZ$47.2 billion. Sales turnover for the entire franchising sector was estimated at NZ$73.4 billion. 72% of franchises are using or planning to implement AI technologies within their operations. 73% of franchise networks are New Zealand founded. Nearly 20% of NZ franchise networks have entered international markets. 90 percent of franchise brands return profits back into the community. Only 18.8 percent of franchisors were involved in a substantial dispute (with one or more franchisees) in the past twelve months.”, Massey University completed this survey sponsored by the Franchise Association of New Zealand, Westpac, Nexia New Zealand, Franchize Consultants, Stewart Germann Law Office, Laser Plumbing and Electrical, and Exceed, Iridium Partners, and Franchise New Zealand media.
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“McDonald’s largest global franchisee is working on a 20-year renewal agreement – Arcos Dorados expects to add 90 to 100 units in 2025. Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc., Latin America’s largest restaurant company and the world’s largest independent McDonald’s franchisee, said it will renew its master franchise agreement with the quick-service giant. Arcos Dorados received a renewal notice from McDonald’s Aug. 1 to replace the parties’ existing MFA with a new, 20-year MFA to be effective Jan. 1, 2025. For its part, Arcos Dorados operates nearly 2,400 restaurants throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. The franchisee became a publicly-traded company on the New York Stock Exchange in April 2011. Its current market capitalization is $1.8 billion, while its share price has grown steadily by about 60% in the past 10 years. On the news of a renewal agreement Tuesday morning, Arcos Dorados’ share price jumped 16%.”, Nation’s Restaurant News, October 1, 2024
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“Chick-fil-A to open first Singapore restaurant, enter Asia in 2025 – The chicken chain will invest $75 million over 10 years to support its expansion within Singapore, which will provide a gateway into the rest of the continent. Chick-fil-A will enter Asia in late 2025 with the opening of its first Singapore store, the company said Thursday in an announcement. Chick-fil-A also plans to open its first five stores in the United Kingdom over a two-year period as part of a $100 million investment. Chick-fil-A (Asia) Pte Ltd hosted a pop-up event in Singapore in June to introduce the brand and gain a better understanding of guest preferences. Over 1,000 people attended the three-day event, signaling early interest by Singaporeans. The company said that Singapore will serve as a gateway to the rest of the continent.”, Restaurant Dive, October 17, 2024
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“Subway China returns to the table – Strengthening the independent selectivity of Subway’s menu and launching various seasonal and localized products are new initiatives launched by Subway China after the change of new leadership. In June 2023, Subway’s global headquarters announced that it had signed a new master franchise agreement with Shanghai Furui Food Enterprise Development Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Furui Food”). Furui Food has obtained the exclusive rights to manage and develop all Subway stores in mainland China. Furui Food will open nearly 4,000 stores in mainland China in the next 20 years, expanding Subway’s market size in China by more than seven times. Over the past year, Subway China has made a comprehensive update from the location, layout, and style of new stores to the addition of breakfast and freshly ground coffee to the menu, the development of local flavors, and the visual presentation of the brand IP. As of June 2023, Subway had only opened more than 500 stores in China after more than 20 years of operation. As of October 2024, this number has risen to 750, indicating that in the past year or so, Subway China has achieved a significant expansion equivalent to half of the growth in the past 20 years. Last November, Subway opened its first Subway flagship store in Shanghai. This is the first flagship store opened by Subway in China in more than 20 years.”, eeo.com.cn, October 25, 2024 (in Mandarin). Article and translation compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
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“A surprise in Singapore: Kenny Rogers Roasters – Dispatch from Singapore: Defunct in the U.S., the rotisserie chicken chain remains alive and well in Asia, proving again just how difficult it is to kill a restaurant brand. One of the first lessons we learned since we started covering restaurants nearly two decades ago was just how hard it is to kill restaurant brands. Once a brand establishes itself, it has some value, even if the business model is flawed or the parent company struggles. It takes a lot to kill a restaurant chain. Kenny Rogers Roasters was created in the early 1990s, the latest in a weird string of country music personalities creating typically chicken- focused restaurant chains (anybody remember Minnie Pearl’s Chicken?). But the brand also faced controversies and challenges from the get-go. It was sued by a Miami-based brand, Cluckers Wood Roasted Chicken. And then Boston Market grew rapidly. The chain filed for bankruptcy by 1998. Rogers himself sought to cut ties with the brand that year. The chain was then sold to Nathan’s Famous in 1998 in a deal estimated to be worth $4 million. Nathan’s had a habit at the time of buying dying brands and later bought the rights to Arthur Treacher’s Fish & Chips. Kenny Rogers Roasters didn’t quite thrive under Nathan’s ownership and a decade later the brand was sold to a Malaysian company that owned the international master franchise rights, Berjaya Corp (which) operates a few western brands, among other things, including Starbucks, Krispy Kreme and Paris Baguette.”, Restaurant Business Online, October 21, 2024
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“Revolutionizing Franchising: How Croatia’s Micro Franchises Are Making Business Ownership Accessible – Franchise entrepreneurs in Croatia are creating micro franchise opportunities to broaden the feasibility of franchise ownership in Europe and beyond. “In many Eastern European countries, the franchise sector has lagged behind the West, and the best way to develop the sector is through low-investment or micro franchises,” explains Dr. Ljiljana Kukec, who leads the Croatian Franchise Association. Instead of investing $150,000 to $350,000 (the “sweet spot” for American franchise brands) micro-franchisees in Croatia are spending well under $50,000 to own a franchise. Just three years ago there were 19 indigenous franchise brands in Croatia; now there are 72! Countrywide there are some 250 franchise brands.”, Dr. John Hayes, Titus Center for Franchising, Palm Beach Atlantic University, LinkedIn, October 26, 2024
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“7-Eleven to open 500 food-focused stores by 2027 – The convenience-store giant’s new locations will feature more prepared food, including in-store restaurants like Laredo Taco Co. Convenience-store giant 7-Eleven plans to open 500 food-and-beverage-focused locations in the U.S. from 2025 to 2027, according to an investor presentation from parent company 7 & i Holdings on Thursday. The stores will feature a new format called New Standard that continues the chain’s shift toward larger, more high-tech stores with expanded food options, including in-store restaurants. It builds upon a previous prototype that incorporated Laredo Taco Co., the 600-unit quick-service Mexican brand 7-Eleven acquired when it bought most of the Stripes c-store chain in 2018. (It added the remaining locations in April.)”, Restaurant Business, October 25, 2024
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.
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For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 119, Tuesday, October 15, 2024
Global Economy Moves Beyond Inflation Crisis to Stable
Once again there are mixed signals about the global, regional and individual economies. McKinsey & Co., the World Bank, the Economist, the Financial Times, Bloomberg and many other publications are starting their year-end looks back and forward. Consumer and executive confidence seems up and down depending on the month, region, country and sector.
And then there are the 67 national elections being held in 2024. Almost all, but now quite all (!!!!!!!!), are finished. “Elections have consequences” for companies trying to plan how best to manage their businesses. European EV owners are eyeing going back to gas. China is trying a number of things to stimulate its slow economy. The United Kingdom’s economy is waiting for the first new government budget. And Shake Shack® is reinventing the restaurant labor model.
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Editor’s Note: You will see small ads in each edition for carefully vetted companies that serve international businesses. These small, focused, vetted ads are in place of charging subscriptions to our readers. Please click on the ads or use the QR code to see what each of our carefully chosen advertisers can do to make doing global business easier.
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Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with any questions, comments and we welcome contributions.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/
+1 949 375 1896
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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“Tactics without strategy is the noise before the defeat.”, Sun Tzu
“Wonder what your customer really wants? Ask. Don’t tell.”, Lisa Stone
“Get big quietly so you don’t tip off potential competitors.”, Chris Dixon
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Highlights in issue #119:
- Brand Global News Section: Foot Locker®, Shake Shack®, and TGI Fridays (UK)
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B2B Payments Platform For Global Businesses
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“Global Economy Moves Beyond Inflation Crisis to Stable Growth – OECD says central banks can continue to prudently cut rates. Significant risks remain to the outlook, organization says. The global economy is settling into a newfound stability as the stress of strong inflation eases, allowing central banks to keep cautiously loosening policy, according to the OECD. Economic growth has remained resilient in recent months, inflation has continued to moderate and indicators suggest ongoing momentum in services, the Paris-based organization said on Wednesday.”, Bloomberg, September 25, 2024
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“McKinsey & Co. Economic conditions outlook, September 2024 – For the first time since March 2020, surveyed executives primarily see the global economy as stable rather than improving. The latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions reveals more cautious sentiments from respondents on both current global conditions and domestic economies than seen in the previous two quarters—though a plurality of respondents expect each to improve in the next six months. While geopolitical instability continues to loom as the top perceived risk to global and domestic growth, in a year when almost half of the world’s population will vote in national elections, respondents now cite political transitions second-most often as a threat both globally and at home.”, McKinsey & Co., September 27, 2024
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Editor’s Note: We first brought up the fact that there will be national elections this year in 67 countries covering 49% of the world’s population and 52% of the world’s GDP in early 2024. “Elections Have Consequences”. This is particularly important for businesses trying to plan for growth. New governments – no matter what party or ideology – usually make changes in taxes and regulations that will impact both local businesses and foreign businesses considering entering new countries. In 2025, we will see the impact of 67 national elections in 2024 on our ability to grow the world’s GDP in 2025.
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Simple, secure currency transfers
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“How will climate change affect crop yields in the future? Maize yields could see significant declines, but wheat could increase. Impacts across the world will be very different. How much will climate change affect food production? Will it hurt or benefit crop yields? Can we feed 8, 9, or 10 billion people in a warmer world? The impact of climate change on yields will depend on several factors: the type of crop, how much warmer the world gets (which will depend on how quickly we reduce our carbon emissions), where in the world you are, and what we do to adapt.”, Our World In Data, October 13, 2024
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“Copper: Now and in the Future – Geopolitical challenges in copper mining are significant, particularly in Latin America and Africa. Copper is crucial to the global economy, and its importance is only going up. Historically, copper has been vital in construction, electrical networks and transportation. But now it is also in high demand as the world shifts toward green technologies and the electrification of transportation. Due to its high conductivity, durability and resistance to corrosion, copper is used in electric vehicles, solar panels and wind turbines. Major copper mining regions include Latin America, particularly Chile, which produces a quarter of the global supply.”, Geopolitical Futures, October 11, 2024
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“EV owners eyeing gas – Across Europe, 19 percent of electric vehicle owners are likely or very likely to switch back to a traditional combustion engine vehicle, according to a McKinsey Mobility Consumer Pulse Survey. Senior partner Andreas Venus and colleagues explain that the share of electric-vehicle owners who say they would consider switching back varies by country: 24 percent of owners in Germany would consider switching back, compared with 18 percent of owners in France and Norway and 15 percent in Italy. The global average is 29 percent.”, McKinsey, October 8, 2024
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Subscribers to our newsletter are invited to a webinar on best practices in global franchising with a focus on taking an international franchise into Spain successfully on Wednesday, October 30th at 9AM west coast USA time.
William Edwards (https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/) and Ned Lyerly (https://www.linkedin.com/in/nedlyerly/) will draw on their 8 decades of taking franchises into new countries successfully to share best practices – what works and what fails!
To sign up for this free webinar please go to this LinkedIn link to register:
https://www.linkedin.com/events/7246525895643987968/comments
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Book Review
Professionals cannot ask their most successful competitors and peers their secrets of rainmaking. That would be awkward, impractical, and sometimes illegal. But it pays to compare yourself to your successful peers.
So, the authors of Rainmaker Confidential did it for you in this 2022 book. Henry DeVries, Scott Love and Mark LeBlanc went behind closed doors and asked the tough questions. We asked more than one hundred successful rainmakers what they are investing more in, what they are cutting back on, and what are their go-to strategies. In other words, how are they investing their time, treasure, and talent. Think of us as your rainmaking R&D department. You’ve no doubt heard of using OPM (other people’s money) to grow your business. This book is about using OPE (other professionals’ experience) to grow your business.
This book is for those who serve in roles such as chief executive officer, general manager, principal, partner, or head of an office, business unit, or practice for professional service firms, especially in the fields of accounting, dental consulting, financial services, management consulting, marketing and advertising, executive search services, software development, technology services, and law firm management. Some define R&D as research and development; the authors define it as rob and duplicate. (!!!??)
The authors say they have done the research so you can ‘rob and duplicate’ the most successful rainmaking strategies from your professional peers. It’s okay, we did not use espionage to gain their secrets. The OPE rainmaking insider secrets were willingly shared.
Editor’s Note: Your editior has known and valued Henry DeVries and his common sense wisdom about rainmaking and publishing your own book for many years.
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Keith Gerson and Bill Edwards Join Forces To Offer Trusted Suppliers To The Franchise Community
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Country & Regional Updates
China
“Can joint ventures fix China’s trade imbalance with the EU and US? Chinese investment abroad is ‘only way’ to ease Beijing’s trade surplus, says leading researcher in wake of Brussels’ EV tariff vote. Trade tensions are growing, with China announcing on Tuesday that it will start collecting anti-dumping duties on European brandy. The announcement came just days after Brussels voted to impose tariffs on Chinese-made EVs after concluding that Beijing was unfairly subsidising EV exports to Europe.”, South China Morning Post, October 12, 2024
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“Who makes China’s stimulus decisions, and what’s the procedure? What has changed since China rolled out a 4-trillion-yuan (US$141 billion) stimulus package in 2008, and why a concrete stimulus figure now remains elusive. Compared with the 2008 stimulus package announced by China’s then premier, Wen Jiabao, China’s current economic power now largely rests with the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission headed by President Xi Jinping. The National Development and Reform Commission, which is a long-term planner and a coordinator on economic issues, will focus on expanding and front-loading government investment to boost the economy, as it is responsible for approving large infrastructure projects. And the source of funding will come from the Ministry of Finance (MOF), whose plans include debt relief for local governments, capital replenishment for major state-owned banks and fiscal support for the property market.”, The South China Morning Post, October 14, 2024
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Germany
“Germany’s choice – Should Europe’s largest economy embrace the future or double down on past successes? Europe is at a hinge moment, but so is Germany. And it is hard for the EU to go anywhere without its largest economy consenting to go in the same direction. Hard though not impossible, as shown by last week’s imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports, in the face of Berlin’s opposition. Still, so long as Germany does not know what it wants, the EU will struggle to make any big steps forward.”, The Financial Times, October 10, 2024
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Portugal
“Portugal proposes decade of tax breaks for young people to stem brain drain – In April, Portugal swore in a new center-right government. It inherited a huge problem, namely: how do you stop a brain drain that’s seen thousands of young people leave your country, at a time when your population is naturally aging and birth rates are hitting record lows? The new prime minister, Luís Montenegro, has a radical proposal — a decade of super low taxes for people under 35. Under the proposed scheme, young workers who earn less than €28,000 ($30,650) would enjoy a completely tax-free first year. They would then be exempted from 75% of tax until the fourth year, enjoy a 50% exemption in years five to seven, and a final 25% in years eight to ten.”, Chartr, October 12, 2024
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United Kingdom
“UK economy grew 0.2% in August – Figure comes as chancellor Rachel Reeves prepares Labour government’s first Budget this month. Friday’s figure, in line with economists’ forecasts, came after zero growth in June and July but marked a slowdown from the start of the year. Services output grew 0.1 per cent in August, production was up 0.5 per cent and construction expanded 0.4 per cent, the Office for National Statistics said. The ONS data comes less than three weeks before Labour’s first Budget, when chancellor Rachel Reeves faces the challenge of lifting economic growth while repairing the public finances”, The Financial Times, October 11, 2024
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“UK employers and staff pay more tax on earnings than Germany – Taxes on income, profits and capital gains paid by individuals and corporations in the UK rose to the equivalent of 13.3pc of the economy in 2022, amid fears that Rachel Reeves will push the burden even higher in her maiden Budget on Oct 30. This is the highest share since records began in 1990, according to data compiled by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), pushing the UK’s burden on earnings further ahead of Germany, Europe’s largest economy. The UK’s tax share on earnings surpassed German levels in 2021 amid a stealth raid on wages presided over by Rishi Sunak.”, The Telegraph, October 7, 2024
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United States
“US Consumer Sentiment Unexpectedly Falls on High Cost of Living – University of Michigan sentiment index at 68.9 after 70.1. Short-term inflation views rose to 2.9% in early October. Consumers expect prices will climb 2.9% over the next year, up from the 2.7% expected in September and the first increase in five months, the report issued Friday showed. At the same time, they see costs rising 3% over the next five to 10 years, down from 3.1% in the prior month.”, Bloomberg, October 11, 2024
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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades
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Brand & Franchising News
“Foot Locker’s reimagined concept store set to debut in Australia – The store will feature the ‘Home Court’ experience, a multi-brand destination developed in partnership with Nike and Jordan. The store will feature Foot Locker’s ‘Home Court’ experience, a multi-brand destination developed in partnership with Nike and Jordan. Its product offer will include on-court and off-court items from Nike, Jordan, Adidas, Puma, New Balance, and Under Armour. The reimagined store concept launch comes after Foot Locker celebrated its 50th anniversary last month. The brand has also launched the reimagined store concept in New York, Paris, and New Jersey, and will launch soon in Delhi.”, Inside Retail Australia, October 14, 2024
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“Shake Shack reinvents the labor deployment model – The burger chain joins a growing number of fast-casual chains using AI-driven technology to better manage staffing. Shake Shack is moving to a bespoke labor deployment model that CEO Rob Lynch said could be a game changer. In fact, the fast-casual burger chain joins a number of peers making similar moves toward using AI-driven technology to more accurately predict the team members needed in each restaurant and when to deploy them. The CEOs of Chipotle, Sweetgreen and Cava in recent months have all described using similar types of technology as they look to improve profitability at a time when macroeconomic pressures are keeping a lid on menu price increases.”, Restaurant Business, September 5, 2024
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“Family favourite restaurant to close 35 locations immediately – More than 1,000 staff will lose their jobs at TGI Fridays (UK) after a deal to save the well-known brand failed to include all 86 locations. A deal has been struck that saves 51 restaurants and nearly 2,400 jobs. The new deal was agreed today with private equity firms Breal Capital and Calveton UK, and will operate under the Liberty Bar and Restaurant Group Limited name.”, The Sun UK, October 7, 2024
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To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here https://insider.edwardsglobal.com
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.
| To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ |
Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking
For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 118, Tuesday, October 1, 2024
How Hello Kitty Took Over The World – 50 Years Ago!
Commentary about the 118th Issue: China releases a ‘shock and awe’ economic package. Chick-fil-a® reenters the United Kingdom and Slim Chickens® enters Germany. The world’s superpower(s)? Inflation continues to fall in European countries. The immense energy needs to train a new AI bot. Wisdom from Abraham Lincoln, Jeff Bezos and Vidal Sassion (really!). Nearshoring in Central Europe. G7 government debt projections.
An amazing chart showing the progression of corruption in Mexican companies and institutions is in this edition. In 2022, China’s population shrank for the first time since 1961. How Hello Kitty Took Over the World 50 years ago! And…..women are beginning to leave men behind.
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Editor’s Note: You will see small ads in each edition for carefully vetted companies that serve international businesses. These small, focused, vetted ads are in place of charging subscriptions to our readers. Please click on the ads or use the QR code to see what each of our carefully chosen advertisers can do to make doing global business easier.
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Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with any questions, comments and we welcome contributions.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/
+1 949 375 1896
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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“Whatever you are, be a good one.”, Abraham Lincoln
“If you can’t feed a team with two pizzas, it’s too large.”, Jeff Bezos
“The only place where success comes before work is in the dictionary.”, Vidal Sassoon
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Highlights in issue #118:
- Brand Global News Section: Chick-fil-a®, Hello Kitty® and Slim Chickens®
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B2B Payments Platform For Global Businesses
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“The end of Moore’s law will not slow the pace of change – Semiconductors are likely to continue their transformational role. In the past 50 years, processors have come to operate tens of thousands of times faster and store a million times more data in the same area. The cost of a transistor has also fallen by a factor of a billion, making technology a global deflationary force. They are also ubiquitous: semiconductors are now the third-most traded commodity in the world by value, after oil and cars. A single Blackwell chip, Nvidia’s latest, runs five times faster than its predecessor, but uses 70% more power in the process. Data centres lash hundreds or thousands of these power-hungry chips together to run large artificial-intelligence (ai) models. By some estimates, Openai, maker of Chatgpt, guzzled more than 50 gigawatt-hours of electricity to train its latest model (see chart). The International Energy Agency calculates that in 2022 data centres consumed 460 terawatt-hours, or almost 2% of global electricity demand. The agency expects this figure to double by 2026.”, The Economist, September 16, 2024
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“World’s Biggest Superpowers in 2024 – The global economic order is stitched together by trade and economic collaboration, but these show signs of fraying. With nationalism on the rise and cross-border trade flows stagnating, economies are growing more protectionist. At the same time, demographic shifts are driving economic growth and productivity in India and Asia, which could shift the global power balance. This graphic ranks world superpowers in 2024, based on analysis from Ray Dalio’s Great Powers Index 2024. (This chart shows) the total strength of world superpowers, based on a wide range of metrics including economic output, military strength, and trade. Additionally, we show per capita strength, indicating a country’s efficiency relative to its population. Visual Capitalist & Ray Dalio, September 24, 2024
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“We spent nearly a year building a generative AI tool. These are the 5 (hard) lessons we learned. McKinsey built an AI tool called Lilli to bring sources and capabilities into one platform to improve workflows. Say hello to “Lilli,” the gen AI tool launched in August 2023. Named after Lillian Dombrowski, the first professional woman hired by McKinsey in 1945, our goal was to aggregate McKinsey’s 40-plus sources and capabilities into a single platform. This would allow teams around the world to readily access McKinsey’s knowledge, generate insights, and thus help clients. Technological change is inherently difficult. For any organization, incorporating gen AI will probably feature such difficulties. That said, it is possible to benefit from experience. Looking back on our 11-month effort, here are five principles we learned—sometimes the hard way.”, Fast Company, June 11, 2024
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“Young women are starting to leave men behind – Men’s education deficit is increasingly becoming an employment, earnings and outcomes gap, with significant repercussions. Across the developed world, girls and young women have been pulling ahead of boys and young men in education for several decades, with much larger proportions going on to attend university than their male counterparts. Much less appreciated than the widening tertiary education gap is the fact that in several rich countries young women are now more likely to be in work than young men.”, The Financial Times, September 19, 2024
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Simple, secure currency transfers
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“Government Debt Projections for G7 Countries (2024-2029F) – This graphic uses data from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) April 2024 edition of the World Economic Outlook to show how the U.S. stacks up against its G7 counterparts in terms of projected gross debt as a percentage of GDP in 2024, and how debt is forecasted to change by 2029. Gross debt is the total value of all of a country’s liabilities at a given point in time. Net debt is gross debt less a country’s financial assets, including cash reserves or investments. The debt figures in this infographic are of government debt, and don’t include public sector debt from provincial or state-level debt. While this reduction in rates will help reduce debt-servicing costs, the U.S. is still projected to see the biggest increase in its gross debt of all G7 nations over the next five years.” Visual Capitalist & IMF, September 25, 2024
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“The hard stuff: Navigating the physical realities of the energy transition – The energy transition is in its early stages, with about 10 percent of required deployment of low-emissions technologies by 2050 achieved in most areas. What challenges lie ahead? About half of energy-related CO2 emissions reduction depends on addressing the most demanding physical challenges. For all its advantages, today’s system also has critical flaws. About two-thirds of energy is currently wasted. And the system generates more than 85 percent of global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2).”, McKinsey, August 14, 2024
Editor’s Note: This article by McKinsey is very dense but very detailed about the challenges faced by many industries and countries to make the transition to renewable energy worldwide.
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“Sustainable fuel flies higher – Global projections for sustainable aviation fuel capacity in 2030 have increased significantly since 2022. According to partner Axel Esqué and coauthors, the projected 2030 volume has doubled, from seven million metric tons in 2022 to 14 million metric tons this year. Although the 2030 projection is now higher, the amount of fuel expected to be available in the near future has decreased since last year’s projection.”, McKinsey, September 26, 2024
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Global & Regional Travel
“Everything you need to know about EES, the new EU visa scheme – With the new Entry/Exit System (EES) launching in November, following by the long-delayed visa waiver next year, we take a look at what it means for travellers. It will mean anyone travelling to and from most European countries without an EU passport will need to have their biometrics — fingerprints and photograph — captured and then checked on every visit. There are fears of queues in terminals and at ports as the rules come into force. It will add two to three minutes of processing time per passenger, up from about 45 seconds at present. The scheme will be adopted by 29 countries, including all EU members bar Cyprus and Ireland. It will also be in force in Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. People with passports issued by any of these countries — including Cyprus and Ireland — will be exempt.”, National Geographic Traveler, September 20, 2024
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Book Review
“Generative AI in Practice” by Bernard Marr (2024) is a timely and accessible guide for professionals and business leaders looking to understand how generative AI can be applied across various industries. Marr does an excellent job of breaking down complex AI concepts into practical insights that are easy to grasp, even for those without a technical background. One of the key strengths of this book is its real-world examples, which provide readers with concrete illustrations of how generative AI can drive business innovation. Whether it’s automating creative processes like writing and design or improving product development through AI-generated simulations, Marr shows how AI is more than just a trend—it’s reshaping industries.
Marr doesn’t shy away from discussing the risks of generative AI, such as job displacement, biased outputs, and the potential for misuse. He emphasizes the need for responsible AI implementation, making this book not just a technical guide but also a thoughtful exploration of the societal impact of AI.
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Keith Gerson and Bill Edwards Join Forces To Offer Trusted Suppliers To The Franchise Community
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Country & Regional Updates
Central & Eastern Europe (CEE)
“Near-shoring is turning eastern Europe into the new China – With firms moving production closer to market, CEE is the place to be. cee countries are benefiting from firms shifting production closer to the European market (near-shoring) or to places considered politically reliable (friend-shoring), as well as old-fashioned offshoring for lower costs. There are three reasons to expect more investment into the region. The first is the global transition to climate neutrality. The second reason is Chinese overcapacity. Finally, tension between America and China, with Europe in between, can disrupt supply chains. This is why firms have started to bring production closer to markets (near-shoring).”, The Economist, September 19, 2024
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China
“China’s Shock-and-Awe Package Misses Key Element: Fiscal Policy – It probably says more about China’s lack of policy stimulus to date that the package of monetary measures announced Tuesday amounted to the strongest set of steps seen in years. The production “speaks to the urgency felt in Beijing to head off deflationary risks and get growth on track for the 5% target” for 2024, Chang Shu and Eric Zhu of Bloomberg Economics wrote. The team’s SHOK model indicates a boost of as much as about 1% of GDP over the coming year. But at the end of the day it’s a “growth boost,” not an “economy fix,” Shu and Zhu wrote.”, Bloomberg, September 25, 2024
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“China’s Silver Economy Is Thriving as Birthrate Plunges – The shrinking population poses threats to growth but has opened opportunities for businesses that serve seniors. Schools for children have been turned into education centers offering activities for seniors like singing, dancing and art classes. China’s aging society is expected to deplete the vigor and vitality of the world’s second-largest economy in the coming decades. But the adverse effects of demographic change are already apparent for Chinese businesses that cater to children. Dairy companies that produced formula for China’s infants are now developing powdered milks for seniors. Proprietors of preschools and kindergartens are closing those facilities to start senior care centers. A technology firm that made devices for parents to track their young children is now designing products allowing grown children to keep tabs on their aging mothers and fathers.
In 2022, China’s population shrank for the first time since 1961. Deaths outnumbered births again last year, and the number of 60-year-olds topped 290 million, or one in every five Chinese people.”, The New York Times, September 20, 2024. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
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Europe & European Union Countries
“ECB Rate-Cut Bets Jump as France, Spain Inflation Sinks Below 2% – Prices rose 1.5% in France in September, 1.7% in Spain. Markets now see 80% chance of rates being lowered in October. Inflation in France and Spain plunged below 2% — fueling predictions by investors and economists that the European Central Bank will speed up the pace of interest-rate cuts.”, Bloomberg, September 26, 2024
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“No End in Sight for Europe’s Sluggish Economy – The European Union’s economic growth rate slowed in the second quarter, though the bloc’s gross domestic product was 0.2 percent higher compared with the previous three-month period. The EU’s largest economies showed very modest growth, with Germany, traditionally the region’s economic driver, even posting negative figures. This confirms a stable trend of slower economic growth amid ongoing domestic and foreign policy challenges. The war in Ukraine has become a money pit for all sides, while the loss of Russia as a supplier of cheap energy and a buyer of European goods continues to drag on the EU economy.
Other factors, including a stronger emphasis on fiscal discipline, further hinder Europe’s economic acceleration, especially compared with the U.S., where GDP grew by 0.7 percent on a quarterly basis over the same period. Although the European Central Bank has started to lower interest rates as inflation cools, a sudden turnaround in growth is unlikely.”, Geopolitical Futures, September 27, 2024
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Germany
“German inflation drops below 2% for first time since early 2021 – Softer price pressure and weak economic activity increase chances of ECB rate cut in October. Inflation in Germany is now at its lowest level since February 2021, when it stood at 1.6 per cent. It had surged to 11.6 per cent by October 2023, driven by higher energy prices, pent-up demand after the Covid-19 pandemic and shortages in the wake of global supply chain disruptions.”, The Financial Times, September 30, 2024
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Indonesia
“Indonesia formally requests to join Trans-Pacific trade pact – Indonesia has formally requested to join the Trans-Pacific trade pact to widen its export markets, its chief economic minister said on Wednesday, according to a report by state news agency Antara. Jakarta announced its intention to join the free trade agreement that already groups 12 countries in May, hoping to attract investment by widening export market access. CPTPP members are Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United Kingdom and Vietnam.”, Reuters, September 25, 2024
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Japan
“How Hello Kitty Took Over the World – Investors in Sanrio have made 10 times their money as the iconic Japanese brand expands digitally. Hello Kitty is celebrating her 50th birthday this year. Sanrio the Japanese company behind the iconic character, has much to cheer about too. Sanrio’s share price is at a record high after surging 10-fold from its trough in 2020. The company is delivering record profits with strong revenue growth. Operating profit last quarter rose 80% from a year earlier……Sanrio’s business outside of Japan is booming, particularly in China and the U.S. Its profit contribution from abroad, including royalties payment from overseas subsidiaries to the parent company, nearly doubled year on year in the June quarter. Sanrio struck a deal with China’s e-commerce giant Alibabain 2022 to license its characters in the country. But the U.S. is among its fastest-growing markets: Sales in the Americas grew 141% year on year last quarter. The younger generation is increasingly familiar with Sanrio’s characters given the company’s strong presence on social media.”, The Wall Street Journal, September 25, 2024
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Mexico
“Mexico’s Audacious Judicial Overhaul – Just weeks away from leaving office, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador ushered legacy-defining judicial reforms through Congress, sparking concern among opponents and international businesses. Mexican governments have restructured the court system several times over the past 30 years, but institutional weaknesses have persisted. Whether the latest reforms will do what they’re intended to do remains an open question, but the deep-rooted problems that undermine public confidence in the courts are likely to endure. The implications for the economy could be severe. Critics worry that the new judiciary, reflecting the politics of Morena, could favor protectionist policies and adopt a more nationalistic regulatory approach. The reforms pave the way for changes to regulatory bodies overseeing economic competition, telecommunications, and oil and gas, potentially undermining Mexico’s commitments under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. Other opponents say the reforms could undermine labor, environmental and trade standards required by the agreement or jeopardize dispute resolution procedures involving judges.”, Geopolitical Futures, September 24, 2024
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United States
“(U.S.) Consumer Confidence Drops in August – The August Consumer Confidence Score was 55.9 (-0.5 vs. July), which is an average of how consumers feel about the job market, their household finances, and their spending comfort levels. The August Financial Outlook Score was 50.8 (+0.1), indicating that consumers feel neutral about their household finances. Thinking about one year from now, 25% think their finances will be better than they are now, 51% think they’ll be the same, and 24% think they’ll be worse.”, Franchising.com, September 23, 2024
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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades
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Brand & Franchising News
“Chick-fil-A shares ‘first phase’ of U.K. expansion plans – The chain’s initial entry in the market includes restaurants in Belfast, Leeds, Liverpool, and London. That stage is expected to take two years, while the company plans to invest over $100 million to expand there within the next 10 years. In addition to the U.K., the company is eyeing ambitious international growth in stores across Europe and Asia supported by a $1 billion investment. Plans currently call for five international markets by 2030, with the U.K. housing the first permanent store outside of North America.”, Nation’s Restaurant News, September 26, 2024
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“Inflation Threatens 87% of (U.S.) Franchisees — Here Are the Ways They’re Fighting Back From soaring labor costs to escalating supply prices, franchise owners are facing significant economic challenges, mostly due to inflation. Industries such as food and personal services, where profit margins are already slim, are feeling the inflationary squeeze more acutely. Franchisees across the country are feeling the squeeze of rising costs, with 87% reporting that inflation is impacting their bottom line, according to the 2024 IFA Annual Franchisee Survey. From soaring labor costs to escalating supply prices, franchise owners face significant economic issues.”, Entrepreneur, September 23, 2024
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“Slim Chickens Opens First Location in Germany – Slim Chickens announced today its first restaurant in Berlin, Germany. The brand has opened locations across the United States, Turkey, and the United Kingdom.”, Franchising.com, September 10, 2024
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“2024 Top Global Franchises Ranking – Click here to see the list of this year’s top 200 global – not U.S. – franchise brands across 12 different business sectors. From small to very large and from food to senior care, these franchise brands are making history across the globe.
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To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here https://insider.edwardsglobal.com
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.
| To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ |
Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking
For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
