EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 46, Monday, December 27, 2021
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)
The world economy is predicted to top US$100 trillion for the first time in 2022: As we come to the end of 2021 and prepare to start 2022, the Year of the Tiger, this special issue focuses on predictions for the coming year.
And we also look back at how 2021 predictions turned out.
First, please click on this link to go to my latest article in ‘Global Trade’ magazine:
“5 Strategies To Expand Your Business Globally, Even in Trying Times”
Global Business Predictions for 2022, Year of the Tiger
“World economy to top $100 trillion in 2022 for first time – The world’s economic output will exceed $100 trillion for the first time next year and it will take China a little longer than previously thought to overtake the United States as the No.1 economy, a report showed on Sunday.”, Reuters, December 25, 2021
“2022 Market Outlook: More Upside For Stocks, Economic Growth To Rebound – ‘Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak. We believe this will produce a strong cyclical recovery, a return of global mobility and strong growth in consumer and corporate spending, within the backdrop of still-easy monetary policy. For this reason, we remain positive on equities, commodities and emerging markets and negative on bonds.’”, J.P. Morgan, December 15, 2021
“Corporate predictions for 2022: what the business schools say – Academics share their thoughts on what’s to come — and how to thrive. With demand and supply in many sectors pitching like ships in a hurricane so that the twain hardly ever seem to meet, leaders need resilient people and systems that can cope with the oscillation and not become prostrated by organisational seasickness. Julian Birkinshaw, professor of strategy and entrepreneurship at London Business School, identified the three key areas — finance, people and operations — where that resilience lies.”, The Times of London, December 22, 2021
“2022 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview – The global economy will continue its uneven recovery amid progress in COVID-19 vaccinations in most developed countries, lagging vaccinations in much of the rest of the world and the threat of new outbreaks. While global growth will be relatively strong, it is likely to slow from 2021 due to setbacks from the pandemic, persistent supply chain disruptions, higher inflation and tightening financial conditions, as well as constraints on public spending in many countries as they cope with high levels of debt and increased interest rates.”, Stratfor Worldview, December 20, 2021
“Five areas will shape the global operating environment for business in 2022 – Embedded in this year’s predictions are increased demand for virtual healthcare, continued pressures on the availability of critical raw materials and advanced manufacturing products, and lingering social and economic pressures. All have been magnified by the festering pandemic.”, Kearney Global Business Policy Council, December 2021
“Wall Street’s 2022 Outlook – New Challenges And Opportunities – Growth through easy money and deficit spending is being replaced by realistic expectations, planning and actions. Add in the Federal Reserve move to market-determined interest rates, and the 2022 outlook necessarily includes shifts in the financial markets. Among the shifts will be serious valuation adjustments of all assets, not just bonds.”, Forbes, December 22, 2021
“Global Airline Capacity Is Seen Rising in 2022, Along With Fares – Carriers poised to return to 2015 level, U.K. consultancy says Ticket prices to be affected by labor, debt, other factors. Bloomberg, December 22, 2-21
“Japan govt weighs raising FY22 growth forecast to +3.0% or more – The projection would be an upgrade from a forecast for 2.2% real GDP growth for the fiscal year starting in April 2022 released at a mid-year review in July. ‘The projected growth figure is not that overly bullish, considering the continued growth thanks to eased restrictions and a high vaccination rate,’ said Saisuke Sakai, senior economist at Mizuho Research and Technologies.”, Reuters, December 20, 2021
“What to Expect of China’s Economy in 2022 – After a bumpy ride in 2021, China enters a politically important year ahead…..one thing that’s certain is that growth will become the top priority in 2022. The readout from the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) that concluded on Dec. 10 became the most widely dissected document of this economically turbulent year. ‘Stability,’ mentioned 25 times in the CEWC readout this time, is the paramount goal before the party’s 20th National Congress later in 2022.”, Caixing Global, December 23, 2021
“Wall Street’s 2022 Outlook – New Challenges And Opportunities – Growth through easy money and deficit spending is being replaced by realistic expectations, planning and actions. Add in the Federal Reserve move to market-determined interest rates, and the 2022 outlook necessarily includes shifts in the financial markets. Among the shifts will be serious valuation adjustments of all assets, not just bonds.”, Forbes, December 22, 2021
“2022 Projected to Be Another Record Year For New Business Starts – A recent survey reveals that almost three out of five U.S. employees (57%) want to start a business and one in five (20%) will make the leap in 2022. After two record-breaking years of new business creation, there’s no sign of the trend slowing down as QuickBooks projects as many as 17 million new small businesses could be set up in 2022. The prediction comes from a recent survey of 8,000 U.S. employees, commissioned by QuickBooks in November 2021.”, The Street, December 22, 2021
“The business builders – The more new businesses you build, the better you get at building them. That’s the lesson from the companies that do it best. Business building helps companies diversify their revenues and keep pace with shifting customers and markets.” McKinsey & Co., December 25, 2021
“What major themes will we see in global media in 2022? What should we see more of? 0McKinsey Global Publishing’s Raju Narisetti asked dozens of journalists and media leaders around the world for their own perspectives on what’s to come—their personal lens on what’s likely to be covered heavily in 2022, and what issues might fly under the radar.”, McKinsey & Co., December 26, 2021
“Technomic Releases 2022 Foodservice Predictions – 2022 Global Restaurant Trends Forecast…….read ahead for Technomic’s take on six major trends poised to make a global impact on foodservice in 2022, plus some up-and-comers likely to break out.”, Technomic, via Franchising.com, December 21, 2021
“India Is on a Tear – Massive modernization presents opportunities for investors. ‘Adventures do occur, but not punctually,’ writes E.M. Forster in A Passage to India. In other words, exciting things happen in India, but a little patience is required. In recent years, however, it seems events have sped up in the Asian subcontinent, and that’s fueling a stock market rally.”, Kiplinger.com, December 21, 2021
“Global demand for coal could hit all-time high in 2022 – Electricity from coal plants has risen by 9% this year to fuel economic recovery from Covid, says watchdog. Coal power is on track to hit a new global record this year after an economic rebound that could drive worldwide coal demand to an all-time high in 2022, according to the International Energy Agency.”, The London Guardian, December 17, 2021
“2022 Global Public Real Estate Outlook – We expect 2022 to be another solid year for the global economy with consensus forecasts calling for global real GDP growth of +4.4%. Job growth is anticipated to be strong in 2022. Segments we believe are exceptionally well positioned to outperform in 2022 include: Industrial Facilities in North America; Data Centers in Asia; U.S. Residential Sector; European Office REITs; and Cell Towers.”, Hazelview Securities Inc., December 2021
A Look Back at 2021 Predictions
“Who Got It Right? A Look Back at Expert Predictions For 2021 – Last year, the editorial team at Visual Capitalist scoured through 200+ reports, articles, podcasts, and more, to create our 2021 Prediction Consensus—a big picture and aggregated look at the key trends that experts predict for the year ahead. If 2021 taught us anything, it’s that things can change at the drop of the hat. Amidst all this uncertainty, how many of the highlighted predictions came to fruition, and which ones didn’t pan out exactly as expected?”, Visual Capitalist, December 13, 2021
“2021: The year in (McKinsey & Co.) charts – While the quick arrival of vaccines buoyed optimism, the persistence of COVID-19 and the rise of variants continue to pose stumbling blocks toward achieving herd immunity. In this new normal, people are learning to live with an endemic disease. The future of work is at a pivotal crossroad—with many workers reassessing their options. During the pandemic, people grappled with finding meaning and purpose in their work. Will the future of work be hybrid, purposeful, inclusive, and built for balance?”, McKinsey & Co., December 17, 2021
“What Happened to Supply Chains in 2021? Pandemic-related disruptions threw a wrench into global supply chains this year, causing shortages of goods. Significantly, the pandemic-induced increase in demand for goods persisted even as demand for services (such as dining out, entertainment, and travel) largely returned to pre-pandemic levels.”, Council on Foreign Relations, December 13, 2021
“How 2021 became the year of ESG investing – Investors concerned about climate change and social justice had a bumper year in 2021, successfully pushing companies and regulators to make changes amid record inflows to funds focused on environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) issues.”, Reuters, December 23, 2021
Our Information Sources & Who We Are
We constantly monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and ten business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing environment. Our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covers 43 countries and provides us with updates about what is happening in their specific countries. Please feel free to send us your input and sources of information. Our contact information is at the bottom of this newsletter.
William (Bill) Edwards, CFE and CEO and Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS) has 4 decades of international operations, development, executive and entrepreneurial experience and has lived in 7 countries. Over the years, Bill has solved global challenges in the franchise, oil and gas, information technology and management consulting sectors. Along the way, he has directed projects on-site in Alaska, Asia, Europe and the Middle and Near East. Mr. Edwards advises a wide range of companies on early to long term global development of their brands.
Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS) provides a complete International solution for companies Going Global. From initial global market research and country prioritization, to developing new international markets, providing in-country operations support and problem solving around the world. Our U.S. based executive team has experience living and working around the world. Our Team on the ground overseas covers 40+ countries. EGS has twice received the U.S. President’s Award for Export Excellence.
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One Response to “EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 46, Monday, December 27, 2021”
Fantastic analysis going into the new year. Economic growth should be a lot better in most countries in 2022 and I like your approach and comments Bill. We all have to live with Covid-19 which will hang around for years to come so keeping up with vaccinations is crucial. Thank you Bill for your superb fortnightly update which must be many hours of work and is greatly appreciated. Happy 2022. Regards, Stewart Germann