EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 74, Tuesday, January 24, 2023

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others

“Success is not accident. It is hard work, perseverance, learning, studying, sacrifice, and most of all, love of what you are doing.”, Pele

“The best way to predict the future is to create it.”, Abraham Lincoln.

“The only sustainable competitive advantage is the speed with which we learn.”, Peter Senge

Highlights in issue #74:

• What the Experts See Coming in 2023

• The Biggest Global Risks of 2023

• China’s Reopening Is the Boost the Flagging World Economy Needs

• Europe may avoid recession in 2023

• PwC’s 26th Annual Global CEO Survey

• The Dipping Cost of Shipping

• Brand Global News Section:  Amrest KFC®, Subway®, Taco Bell®

NOTE: Bolded headlines in this newsletter are live links where the article is available without a paid subscription.

Interesting Data and Studies

“What the Experts See Coming in 2023 – In this, our fourth year of Prediction Consensus (now part of our more comprehensive 2023 Global Forecast Series), we’ve learned a few things about the universe of predictions, experts, outlooks, and forecasts. Experts are reasonably good at predicting the future one year out, though they are also in a strong position to help shape the future through their influential thought leadership and actions. Situations can and will flare up in unexpected ways, which can have knock-on effects on the whole system (e.g. COVID-19, Ukraine invasion). Visual Capitalist, January 11. 2023

“The Biggest Global Risks of 2023 – The profile of risks facing the world is evolving constantly. Events like last year’s invasion of Ukraine can send shockwaves through the system, radically shifting perceptions of what the biggest risks facing humanity are. Today’s graphic summarizes findings from the Global Risks Report, an annual publication produced by the World Economic Forum (WEF). It provides an overview of the most pressing global risks that the world is facing, as identified by experts and decision-makers. These risks are grouped into five general categories: economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal, and technological.”, Visual Capitalist / World Economic Forum, January 13, 2023

“Global Unemployment to Steady Despite Economic Slowdown, Says International Labour Organization – The U.N. agency sees the first episode of stagflation since the 1970s, but no similar surge in unemployment. Unemployment will stay mostly stable around the world this year and next despite a sharp economic slowdown, reflecting a shortage of workers in rich countries among other factors, the International Labour Organization said Monday.”, The Wall Street Journal, January 16, 2023

“PwC’s 26^th Annual Global CEO Survey – Winning today’s race while running tomorrow’s. Evolve or die, say 4,410 chief executives in our 2023 CEO Survey. But are they spending enough time on business reinvention? Many tell us no. Forty percent of global CEOs think their organization will no longer be economically viable in ten years’ time, if it continues on its current course…..Most of those CEOs feel it’s critically important for them to reinvent their businesses for the future.”, PWC, January 16, 2023

“Fake Meat Was Supposed to Save the World. It Became Just Another Fad – Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods wanted to upend the world’s $1 trillion meat industry. But plant-based meat is turning out to be a flop. Ever since founding Beyond Meat Inc. in 2009 with the then fantastical idea of making meat without animals, Ethan Brown has been giving the equivalent of one extremely long TED Talk. But Big Meat is still alive and well. After Beyond went public in 2019—at the time the most successful major initial public offering since the 2008 financial crisis—competitors rushed into the space, followed by a categorywide pandemic surge. Since then the industry has plunged.”, Bloomberg, January 18, 2023

Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation & Trade Issues

“The Dipping Cost of Shipping – A little over one year ago, congestion at America’s West Coast ports were making headlines, and the global cost of shipping containers had reached record highs. Today, shipping costs have come back down to Earth, with some routes approaching pre-pandemic levels. The graphic above, using data from Freightos, shows just how dramatically costs have fallen in a short amount of time. The Freightos Baltic Index (FBX)—a widely recognized benchmark for global freight rates—has fallen 80% since its peak in late 2021.”, Visual Capitalist, January 23, 2023

“Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) – Global supply chain pressures decreased moderately in December, disrupting the upward trend seen over the previous two months. The largest contributing factors to supply chain pressures were rises in Korean delivery times and Taiwanese inventories, but these were more than offset by smaller negative contributions over a larger set of factors. The GSCPI’s recent movements suggest that developments in Asia are slowing down the index’s return to normal historical levels.”, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, January 17, 2023

Global & Regional Travel Updates

“EU delays new entry rules requiring fingerprints until autumn – Rene Vihalem, chairman of the EES programme management board, told a meeting of the EU’s large-scale IT projects committee that a revised timetable would be published in March but that ports and airports should be equipped for the system to launch by the end of the year. Under the scheme, all arrivals from outside the European Union will have four fingerprints scanned and a photograph taken. The data will be captured on the first entry to the bloc and verified on subsequent visits. Holidaymakers had been told to expect long delays, especially at British ports — where border controls are juxtaposed with French immigration formalities carried out on UK land — because of difficulties of capturing passengers’ data from inside their cars. There are also concerns of long queues at the Eurotunnel terminal in Folkestone.”, The Times of London, January 7, 2023

“Airlines Resurrect Ancient Jumbo Jets to Meet First and Business-Class Demand – The fuel-inefficient 747 and A380 are being resurrected, thanks to their large numbers of premium seats. As global air travel comes roaring back from its pandemic-induced slump, airlines are racing to provide enough capacity, particularly for premium tickets on the long-haul flights enjoying a stronger-than-expected rebound. The surge has created a surprise bottleneck for some carriers, which are finding that many of their new-generation aircraft outfitted with enough business and first-class berths are either late for delivery or still awaiting regulatory approval. So carriers have been forced to revive a venerable plane model that looked consigned to the scrap heap even before the Covid‑19 outbreak: the four-engine dinosaur.”, Bloomberg, January 11, 2023

“Airlines face hurdles to cashing in on China re-opening – U.S. and European airlines will benefit from pent-up demand for travel to China after its recent border reopening, but route approvals, fresh COVID-19 testing rules and not enough large aircraft remain barriers to rising sales, analysts and industry officials say. Travel is returning to China, the world’s largest outbound tourism market worth $255 billion in 2019, after the country ended mandatory quarantines on Jan. 8. Airfares from China are now 160% higher than before the pandemic, data from travel firm ForwardKeys shows, due to limited supply.”, Reuters, January 17, 2023

“American Airlines To Restart Nonstop Dallas/Fort Worth-Shanghai Flights – China has finally reopened to the rest of the world, and international air travel demand to the country has already surged. However, due to conflicting capacity restrictions and geopolitical tensions, most US airline schedules have taken some time to adapt to the sudden demand. One carrier making such adjustments is American Airlines, which has now announced the resumption of flights to Shanghai. The last time American Airlines operated non-stop flight services between Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport and Shanghai Pudong International Airport was in March 2020, when it was suspended due to the impending pandemic.”, Simply Flying, January 9, 2023

Country & Regional Updates

Australia

“ASX off to the best start in at least 30 years – The Australian sharemarket has posted its second-best start to a year in at least three decades as optimism grows inflation will peak lower than the Reserve Bank’s 8 per cent forecast for the December quarter. Westpac chief economist Bill Evans tipped inflation data on Wednesday would show annual price rises peaked at 7.4 per cent and would slow to 3.7 per cent this year – well below the RBA’s 4.7 per cent forecast.”, Australian Financial Review, January 23, 2023

Canada

“Inflation rate eases to 6.3% in December as Bank of Canada considers new rate hike – Canada’s inflation rate eased in December alongside a steep drop in gasoline prices, an encouraging sign for the Bank of Canada as it considers further increases in interest rates. It was the latest in a string of promising developments for inflation. The U.S. rate is continuing to fall, while prices for many resources – such as lumber and natural gas – have dropped. Companies in several industries have reported that supply chain disruptions – a key factor in recently driving up prices – are improving, too.”, The Globe and Mail, January 19, 2023

China

“China’s Reopening Is the Boost the Flagging World Economy Needs – The easing of Covid restrictions will unleash pent-up demand for commodities, consumer goods and travel. Around the world, economies that rely on tourism and commodities are set to receive a shot from China’s sudden reopening, as consumers unleash some of the 5.6 trillion yuan ($836 billion) in excess savings they built up during the pandemic. Demand for air travel, hotels and spots at foreign schools and universities will light up as Chinese pack their bags for international travel for the first time since Covid-19 struck.”, Bloomberg, January 18, 2023

“China’s Economy Fails To Meet Government Target, Expanding 3% In 2022 – Although the data showed a marked slowdown in economic activity, it was slightly better than estimates including the World Bank’s earlier forecast of 2.7%. Officials expressed a note of optimism by saying that the economy held up under pressure from a volatile international environment as well as the difficult task to reform and maintain stability domestically. Now that China is reopening to the world, the top leadership is also voicing more support for the private sector. Officials are easing their crackdown on the property sector by providing fresh credit and allowing extensions in debt repayments, which sparked a recent rally in the shares of real estate developers. Another major source of growth, namely the internet sector, is also finding a more friendly regulatory environment as well.”, Forbes, January 17, 2023

“China’s population falls in historic shift – First decline in 60 years set to have long-term consequences for domestic and global economies. China’s population fell in 2022 for the first time in decades in a historic shift that is expected to have long-term consequences for the domestic and global economies. The world’s most populous country has long been a crucial source of labour and demand, fuelling growth in China and the world. ‘This is a truly historic turning point, an onset of a long-term and irreversible population decline,’ said Wang Feng, an expert on Chinese demographic change at the University of California, Irvine.”, The Financial Times, January 16, 2023

European Union

“Eurozone set to avoid recession this year as economists’ gloom lifts – Sharp about-turn in sentiment comes as IMF indicates it will upgrade its global economic forecasts.  The eurozone will avoid a recession this year according to a widely-watched survey of economists which illustrates the sharp about-turn in global economic sentiment in the past couple of weeks. The upgrade comes after officials and business leaders at this week’s annual World Economic Forum in Davos also embraced a more upbeat outlook, and the IMF signalled that it would soon upgrade its forecasts for global growth.”, The Financial Times, January 22, 2023

“Europe may avoid recession in 2023, economic chiefs say – Economic officials from the European Union on Monday offered a rosier vision for the bloc’s economic future, with the latest data showing Europe may avoid a recession that had been predicted several months ago.  EU Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said that although the bloc’s economic situation ‘is still uncertain … we had some encouraging news. We managed to reduce our energy dependence, energy prices went down significantly and inflation peaked last year in Europe,’ Gentiloni said ahead of monthly talks with eurozone finance ministers in Brussels. ‘So, there is a chance to avoid a deep recession and maybe to enter a more limited, shallow contraction,’ he added.”, Deutsche Welle, January 16, 2023

Germany

“German investors turn positive as recession fears wane – German investor sentiment turned positive for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in January, in a further sign that the downturn in Europe’s biggest economy may not be as sharp as feared. The ZEW Institute’s indicator of investors’ expectations of the outlook for the coming six months, a closely watched measure of economic confidence, rose for the fourth successive month to 16.9, from minus 23.3 in December. The reading was well above the minus 15 forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.”, The Financial Times, January 17, 2023

Latin America

“Brazil and Argentina eye a common currency similar to the euro, with Latin American nations invited to join – Argentina and Brazil are in the preliminary stages of renewing discussions on forming a common currency for financial and commercial transactions, reviving an often-discussed plan that would face numerous political and economic hurdles. South America’s two largest economies have considered options to coordinate their currencies for decades, often to counter the influence of the dollar in the region. The persistent macroeconomic imbalances of both countries, together with recurrent political obstacles to the idea, has resulted in little practical progress.”, Fortune, January 22, 2023

India

“Apple wants to manufacture 25% of its iPhones in India, minister says – Piyush Goyal, India’s minister of commerce and industry, called Apple ‘another success story’ as he talked up the business credentials of the world’s fifth-largest economy. ‘They’re [Apple] already at about 5-7% of their manufacturing in India. If I am not mistaken, they are targeting to go up to 25% of their manufacturing,’ Goyal said at a conference. Last year, Apple began assembling its flagship iPhone 14 in India. It was the first time the tech giant, based in Cupertino, California, produced its latest model in India so close to its launch. Apple has been manufacturing iPhones in India since 2017, but these were usually older models.”, CVNBC, January 23, 2023

Malaysia

“Malaysia Records Trade Surplus for 25th Consecutive Year – Malaysia registered a trade surplus for a 25th consecutive year in 2022, with exports to major markets, including China and ASEAN countries, setting records boosted by global inflation. – Exports rose 25% to MYR 1.55 trillion ($355.1 billion) last year, according to the Ministry of International Trade and Industry, lifted by shipments of electrical and electronic products, petroleum, liquefied natural gas and palm oil.”, Bloomberg, January 18, 2023

United Kingdom

“From the markets to falling energy prices: 10 reasons to be cheerful about the economy – The FTSE is close to record highs, inflation is on the wane, and interest rates are close to peaking — just some of the reasons to give the country hope. Many business leaders have been quietly sharing an increased sense of optimism, which increased last week after Friday’s data showed that the UK economy had avoided the recession that many had predicted. Upbeat trading statements from Marks & Spencer and Sainsbury’s showed that shoppers kept spending during Christmas, despite the cost of living crisis.

The stock market soared, with the FTSE 100 ending the week within a whisker of its all-time high — 5 per cent up already in 2023, just 13 days in…..While 2023 may be difficult, there are reasons to be cheerful.”, The Times of London, January 14, 2023

United States

“A drop in chicken prices gives operators something to cluck about – Current costs and supply are favorable, giving chicken concepts a reason to celebrate after steady price increases. But the year ahead may bring changes. Jim Bitticks, president and COO of Los Angeles-based Dave’s Hot Chicken, gets positively jubilant when he talks about the current price of chicken. ‘We use jumbo chicken tenders,’ he said of Dave’s menu. ‘Six months ago, they were over $3 a pound, but now they’re holding steady at 98 cents. They’ve been dropping in price since October.’ David Maloni, foodservice supply chain analyst and president of Datum FS, agrees that chicken breast prices have fallen drastically over the last six months, as have wings. But, he cautioned, prices are at their bottom and will move higher over the next six months.”, Restaurant Business, January 11, 2023

Brand & Franchising News

“AmRest sells its KFC restaurant business in Russia for 100 mln euro – Madrid-based restaurant operator AmRest said on Tuesday it agreed to sell its KFC restaurant business in Russia for at least 100 million euros ($104.48 million) to Russian restaurant and entertainment company Almira. AmRest follows hundreds of Western companies which have either withdrawn, sold or closed down operations in Russia since the invasion of Ukraine in February. Before the Ukrainian crisis, Russia was one of the main markets for the restaurant operator.”, Reuters, December 7, 2022. Compliments of Jason Gehrke, The Franchise Advisory Centre, Brisbane

“Subway Explores Sale That Could Value Sandwich Chain at More Than $10 Billion – Biggest restaurant chain by U.S. locations is in the midst of a turnaround – Sandwich chain Subway has retained advisers to explore a sale of the closely held company, according to people familiar with the situation. The process, which is in the early stages, is expected to attract potential corporate buyers and private-equity firms, and could value Subway at more than $10 billion, the people said. Still, it is possible there won’t be a sale or other deal.”, The Wall Street Journal, January 11, 2023

“The Next Wave of On-Demand Restaurant Delivery – Successful ghost kitchen models are learning from the successes, and pitfalls, of predecessors. Many startups across varying industries, eager to disrupt, often make a lot of mistakes out of the gate, the restaurant space is no different, however, here, the main blunder made by some of these startups was not understanding the business of hospitality from the get-go…..CEO and cofounder of OOMI Digital Kitchen, Markus Pineyro….is an example of one operator who has sat back, watched the model launch, and took copious notes. He attributes his patience and good timing to what he believes will be the winning ghost kitchen strategy.”, QSR Magazine, January 6, 2023

“Taco Bell (Canada) to open 200 new locations in partnership with Redberry Restaurants –  This will more than double the franchises’ existing Canadian location count and will establish Redberry’s position as the largest franchisee in the country. This is what restless creativity looks and feels like in (Canada). The restaurant company currently owns and operates 14 locations across Ontario. The plan to build 200 new locations will take place over an eight-year period.”, Franchiseinfo.ca, January 16, 2023

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, economic development and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing environment. Our GlobalTeam™ covering 25+ countries provides us with updates about what is happening in their specific countries. 

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During four-decades in international business, William (Bill) Edwards has played a leadership role in the global growth of more than 40 brands. He is widely recognized as an International Problem Solver, Strategist, Advisor and a specialist on global cultures. His career covers international operations, executive and entrepreneurial experience in the energy, technology, licensing, management consulting and retail sectors. He has been a technical specialist, manager, brand senior executive and country president. As a Global Advisor, he now shares his experiences and wisdom with senior executives to help them successfully navigate the complex international company growth landscape. To take  your business global successfully, contact Bill Edwards at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com or +1 949 224 3896. 

www.edwardsglobal.com

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EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 73, Tuesday, January 10, 2023

To receive this biweekly newsletter that is read by over 1,400 people in 20 countries, click here:

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others

“Try not to become a man of success. Rather become a man of value.”, Albert Einstein

“When you change your thoughts, remember to also change your world.”, Norman Vincent Peale

“I’m a greater believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it.” , Thomas Jefferson

Highlights in issue #73:

• Natural Gas Prices Are Plunging On a Warmer Start to Winter

• Is the 4-Day Work Week the Future of Work?

• Global Consumer Trends 2023 Report: Rediscovering the Human Connection

• China’s Struggle to Contain Covid Hits the Economy Hard

• Vietnam Pulls Off Asia’s Fastest Growth as Economy Powers On

• How McDonald’s Won Russia—and Then Lost It All –

• Brand Global News Section: Burger King®, Chiplote®, Dominos®, Gelatissimo®, McDonald’s®, Popeyes®, Starbucks®, Wendy’s®, White Castle®

NOTE: Bolded headlines in this newsletter are live links where the article is available without a paid subscription.

Interesting Data and Studies

“5 Top Issues Our Columnists Are Watching in 2023 – (Foreign Policy ) FP columnists identify key trends and events to look out for in the coming year.Each December, we survey some of our experts for the most important issue they’ll be following in the coming year. Beyond the most obvious one—Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine—here are five things Foreign Policy columnists are keeping an eye on in 2023.”, Foreign Policy magazine, January 2, 2023

“Global Consumer Trends 2023 Report: Rediscovering the Human Connection – ‘We spoke to more than 33,000 consumers in 29 countries around the world to find out what businesses need to do to win their loyalty. The answer? Act more human.’ That’s from the introduction to “2023 Global Consumer Trends,” a 31-page report from the Qualtrics XM Institute. As the pendulum continues to swing toward ever-greater use of technology, the report urges businesses seeking to improve their customer service to make 2023 the year they improve the balance of the human component in their customers’ experience.”, Franchising.com, January 1, 2023

“(McKinsey) Survey results: Expectations for company performance – Compared with last quarter, respondents share more optimistic views for their companies’ future profits. However, expectations overall for company performance are more muted than at the start of 2022. Respondents are much more likely now, compared with the September survey, to expect profits to increase: 59 percent say their companies’ profits will grow in the next six months, up from 51 percent in the previous survey. We see optimism increasing in each industry.”, McKinsey, December 21, 2022

“Is the 4-Day Work Week the Future of Work? Where did the 5-day work week come from? Who invented it? It is right for 2023, or are there better alternatives? Could 4 days be the flexible future of our work week? Or is 35 hours a week the right number, with business leaders allowing employees the option of spreading those 35 hours over however many days a week they prefer? A 4-day work week trial has been running since January 2022 across several countries, where more than 70 firms are taking part in the scheme where employees get 100% pay for 80% of their normal hours worked. After six months, data shows that productivity has been maintained or improved at most firms.”, Franchising.com, January 2023

“The safest place in the world to live is across the ocean: This country ranks most peaceful – Iceland is the world’s most peaceful country, making it a top option for the safest place to live. The Woodlands, just outside of Houston, Texas, is ranked the best city to live in America. New England states dominate the charts of the safest states to live in the United States. The top ten most peaceful countries, according to the 2022 GPI (Global Peace Index):

From USA Today, January 1, 2023

Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation & Trade Issues

“Europe leads pack on LNG imports as global competition for fuel heats up – EU nations bought 101mn tonnes last year — 58% more than in all of 2021. Europe was the largest customer in the global liquefied natural gas market in 2022, with the region importing substantially higher volumes than rival buyers as it seeks to replace dwindling Russian pipeline gas supplies. In previous years, the EU lagged behind Japan and China on LNG imports, but Russia’s weaponisation of energy since its invasion of Ukraine has forced the bloc to seek alternative fuel supplies.”, The Financial Times, January 7. 2023

“Natural Gas Prices Are Plunging On a Warmer Start to Winter – Milder weather seen from Europe to China over next few weeks. Gas rationing unlikely as top importers have built stockpiles. A warmer-than-expected start to winter in large parts of the world that could linger for weeks — especially across the US — is easing fears of a natural gas crisis that had been predicted to trigger outages and add to power bills. Forecasts point to temperatures above seasonal norms for most of Europe and the US over the next several weeks. It’ll also be more mild across much of China — the world’s biggest gas importer — over the next 10 days, and Tokyo may see a temperature spike around mid-January.”, Bloomberg, January 2, 2023

“Lower energy prices put brakes on eurozone inflation – The sharp decline in CPI was driven by an easing in annual energy price inflation which rose by 25.7 per cent last month compared with the same period in 2021, down from the 35 per cent climb recorded in November. Despite the drop in headline inflation, a measure of core inflation which strips out volatile elements like energy, rose by 20 basis points to a fresh record high of 5.2 per cent last month. Services prices also rose from 4.2 per cent to 4.4 per cent, in a sign that underlying inflationary pressures remain strong.”, The Times of London, January 7, 2023

“Shipping Companies Face More Dangerous Shoals –  A price war among shipping companies is looking more likely next year: Slowing growth amid high inflation and interest rates in the U.S. and an energy crisis in Europe may culminate in recession. And the demand cliff comes as the shipping industry is also preparing for a massive delivery of new vessels.  Drewry expects 2023 will witness the largest ever addition of new ship capacity—about 2.5 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU), unless some deliveries are deferred. Shipping companies will struggle to manage a simultaneous decline in global trade and a surge in ship supply unless they can form alliances to curtail sailings, sell excess capacity and convince clients to sign on to long-term contracts.”, The Wall Street Journal, December 30, 2022

Global & Regional Travel Updates

“Flight Mode Off: EU To Allow Phone Use On Planes – The EU has agreed to allow phones to be used on airplanes without the need to turn phones to flight mode—a change that will make a lot of travelers very happy indeed. Thierry Breton, EU Commissioner for the Internal Market said in a statement that ‘the sky is no longer a limit when it comes to possibilities offered by super-fast, high-capacity connectivity.’ (5G) The European Commission passed the ruling although it is not yet clear when and how it will work—EU member states have been given the deadline of June 30, 2023 to enable 5G technology aboard all aircraft.”, Forbes, December 26, 2022

“Will 2023 Bring China’s Tourism Recovery? Chinese international travelers had been the world’s biggest tourism spenders for a while before the pandemic crashed international tourism markets. Chinese tourist won’t have to quarantine anymore upon returning to their home country starting January 8. As seen in data by the UN World Tourism Organization, expenditures of outbound travelers from China were still down 58 percent on average from 2019 as of June 2022.”, Statista, January 2, 2023

“Delta Air Lines to Offer Free Wi-Fi Starting Feb. 1 – Delta Chief Executive Ed Bastian said Thursday that about 80% of Delta’s U.S. domestic mainline fleet will be equipped to launch the free offering at the start of next month, with more aircraft being added weekly. The airline said free Wi-Fi will be available on more than 700 planes by the end of this year, with the service expanding to all of Delta’s international and regional planes by the end of next year.”, The Wall Street Journal, January 5, 2023

Country & Regional Updates

Australia

“Wine, Lobsters Could Be Next in China-Australia Trade Thaw – China’s trade restrictions on Australian wine, lobsters and other commodities could be the next to ease amid a warming of diplomatic ties and expectations that Beijing will soon resume imports of coal. Curbs on commodity imports will probably be eased gradually and in an unofficial manner, said Hans Hendrischke, professor of Chinese Business and Management at the University of Sydney. While there’s some confidence that restrictions will be lifted, there’s currently no indication of timing, he said.”, Bloomberg, January 5, 2023

Canada

“Small business outlook for year improves slightly, but still shows recession fears – The Canadian Federation of Independent Business says the outlook among entrepreneurs for the 12 months ahead improved slightly from last month but remains quite low. The group says its latest survey found its small business confidence indicator registered 50.9 index points in December, up 0.9 points over last month. It says that while an improvement, it remains at levels usually only seen around recession periods, while the short-term outlook dropped more than three points to 40.2.”, The Globe and Mail, December 29, 2022

China

“China Is Open Again. 13 Ways to Tap Into Its Recovery Right Now – Chinese stocks look poised to keep bouncing into the Year of the Rabbit. As authorities peel back some of the last Covid restrictions this weekend and policy makers prioritize reviving the world’s second largest economy, Chinese stocks stand to recoup some of the steep losses of the past two years.”, Barron’s, January 7, 2023

“China’s Struggle to Contain Covid Hits the Economy Hard – Faced with faltering demand at home and abroad, China’s GDP has been expanding well below target this year. Exports used to be a major driver of China’s economic recovery, but that has been tapering off. But since August this year, export growth has slowed or even slipped into negative territory, as demand from the world’s three largest importers of Chinese goods, the U.S., the EU and Southeast Asia, has weakened as high inflation has weighed on consumers’ purchasing power and inventories have piled up.”, Caixin Global, December 30, 2022

Germany

“Germany’s finance minister sees 2023 inflation at 7% – Germany’s finance minister expects inflation in Europe’s biggest economy to drop to 7% this year and to continue falling in 2024 and beyond, but believes high energy prices will become the new normal. Pushed by spiking energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and falling Russian energy exports, Germany’s year-on-year inflation has slowed slightly in November to 11.3% from a high of 11.6% the month prior.”, Reuters, January 1, 2023

India

“India will become the world’s most populous country in 2023 – China is now suffering from a demographic slump. CHINA HAS been the world’s most populous country for hundreds of years. In 1750 it had an estimated 225m people, more than a quarter of the world’s total. India, not then a politically unified country, had roughly 200m, which ranked it second. In 2023 it will seize the crown. The UN guesses that India’s population will surpass that of China on April 14th. India’s population on the following day is projected to be 1,425,775,850.”, The Economist, November 14, 2023 (update from previous article)

“Indian economic growth to slow to 7% in 2022/23, govt forecasts – India’s government expects economic growth to slow in the financial year ending March, as pandemic-related distortions ease and pent-up demand for goods levels out going into 2023. Gross domestic product (GDP) will likely rise 7% this fiscal year, compared with 8.7% the previous year, the Ministry of Statistics said in its first estimate for the period that put manufacturing growth at just 1.6%.”, Reuters, January 6, 2023

Spain

“Spanish services activity expands again in December – Activity in the Spanish services sector expanded for the second consecutive month in December, supported by a marginally better demand environment amid slowing inflation, a survey showed on Wednesday. S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Spain’s services sector, which accounts for around half of Spanish economic output, rose to 51.6 last month from 51.2 in November, above the 50.0 mark that separates growth from contraction.”, Reuters, January 4, 2023

Thailand

“Thailand’s GDP will increase by 3.2% in 2022 and 4.5% in 2023 (Fitch) – During its 2022 Thailand Sovereign and Bank Outlook Webinar, Fitch Ratings analysts said that Thailand’s economic recovery is improving, despite growing inflationary pressures and weaker global growth posing risks to the short-term comeback…..supported by steady improvements in tourism and domestic demand, while noting that higher inflation and slower global growth are downside risks to the forecast.”, Fitch, December 2022. Compliments of Sean Ngo, VF Franchising, Ho Chi Minh City

United Arab Emirates

“Dubai announces $8.7 trillion economic plan to boost trade, investment and global hub status – Dubai aims to double the size of its economy in the next decade and become one of the “top 3 economic cities around the world,” Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum, the ruler of Dubai, tweeted. Recent years have seen Dubai roll out a flurry of reforms aimed at making it more attractive for foreigners and international companies to live and invest.”, CNBC, January 4, 2023

“Dubai scraps 30% alcohol tax and licence fee in apparent bid to boost tourism – It will also stop charging for personal alcohol licences – something residents who want to drink at home must have. Dubai has been relaxing laws for some time, allowing the sale of alcohol in daylight during Ramadan and approving home delivery during the pandemic. This latest move is thought to be an attempt to make the city more attractive to foreigners, in the face of competition from neighbours.”, BBC News, January 2, 2023

United Kingdom

“British Households Dialed Down Winter Gas Use to Save Cash – Use in homes was 8.7% below expectations, says BFY Group Savings show consumers’ power to lift strain on energy system. The figures are some of the first signs of British consumers’ ability to find energy savings in their homes amid record-high prices for heating. Governments in Germany and France have been more proactive in encouraging energy saving than in the UK, which only launched a campaign for demand reduction in December.”, Bloomberg, January 6, 2023

“Bosses toast reasons to cheer in 2023 – The year ahead will make a bumpy start, but business chiefs hope for a rebound after a likely bumpy start. ‘We think inflation is likely to have peaked in the fourth quarter, the Bank rate will reach 4 per cent in early 2023 and GDP will contract by about 1 per cent next year,’ said Charlie Nunn, head of Lloyds Banking Group. Cyrus Kapadia, chief executive of Lazard’s UK financial advisory arm said: “Financial markets could rebound more quickly than some expect. Despite the current economic slowdown, balance sheets remain relatively strong.”, The Times of London, January 1, 2023

United States

“U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed Sharply in November as Global Demand Cooled – American imports fell more than exports amid high inflation and interest rates. U.S. commerce with the rest of the world declined significantly in November, shrinking the U.S. trade deficit by more than a fifth and adding to signs of a global economic slowdown through the holiday season. U.S. exports fell 2% in November from October, reflecting an ebbing appetite abroad for American products—including aircraft, food and telecommunications equipment—the Commerce Department reported Thursday.”, The Wall Street Journal, January 5, 2023

“The American economy is set for a downturn, not a crisis – The coming recession looks likely to be mild. America is heading for a recession in 2023. Over the past half-century, whenever inflation has reached an annual pace of more than 5%, it has always taken a recession to wring it out of the economy. But it will not be all gloom. There is reason to think that the coming recession will be mild. Throughout the past year the number of open jobs has far outstripped the number of available workers. Disinflation will eventually take hold, turning into outright month-on-month deflation when the recession strikes. That ought to spell the end of the Fed’s rate-increase cycle by the middle of the year, with the focus instead shifting to when it might start to loosen policy.”, The Economist, November 18, 2022

Vietnam

“Vietnam Pulls Off Asia’s Fastest Growth as Economy Powers On – GDP grows 8.02% in 2022 signaling momentum to recovery Growth beats government’s initial full-year target of 6%-6.5%. Vietnam’s economy grew at the fastest pace in Asia this year, signaling momentum just before risks from a global slowdown began to materialize.”, Bloomberg, December 28, 2022

Brand & Franchising News

“Chipotle and White Castle are spending hundreds of thousands a month on automation to combat labor shortages and rising food costs – but it is still cheaper than paying human workers. Fast-food chains are employing robots that flip burgers, brew espressos and greet customers. The move to automation is due to labor shortages and rising food costs. White Castle uses a burger-flipping, fry-making robot at 100 of its locations, each costing $3,000 a month. Chipotle has a robot that makes tortilla chips at one site – but refused to tell DailyMail.com how much it pays. The cost of these robots is cheaper than paying a human worker”, The Daily Mail (UK), January 3, 2023

“Domino’s franchisee opens 600th store in Dubai – Middle East-based Alamar Foods has opened its 600th Domino’s Pizza store in Dubai, according to a TradeArabia report. Alamar Foods in the master franchisee for Domino’s in the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan.”, QSR Magazine, December 21, 2022

“Australian gelato franchise hits Hawaii – Gelatissimo, a 65-unit gelato concept based in Sydney, Australia, is offering American entrepreneurs a scoop of its multi-million-dollar franchise model as it rolls out its U.S. expansion plan. Opening a store in Hawaii next month at the Royal Hawaiian Center in Waikiki, the concept made its American debut earlier this year in Houston under the direction of franchisees Simon Stankevicius and Phanary Hok, who own several dessert concepts.”, Fast Causal, November 30, 2022. Compliments of Franchising.com

“How McDonald’s Won Russia—and Then Lost It All – For 30 years the fast-food icon turned meat, bread and potatoes into a display of capitalism that changed the way the country did business. Then Putin invaded Ukraine.” Bloomberg, January 3, 2023

“RBI signs master agreement to bring Popeyes, Burger King to Eastern Europe – Restaurant Brands International and McWin, a European franchisee, have signed a master agreement to bring Burger King and Popeyes to several countries in Eastern Europe. New restaurants are slated to open in 2023, according to a press release. McWin, through its newly established Rex Concepts CEE platform, is set to expand the Burger King brand in Czech Republic, Poland and Romania, and to bring the Popeyes to Czech Republic and Poland, with plans to open 600 restaurants throughout these countries over the next 10 years.”, QSR Web, November 30, 2022. Compliments of Franchising.com

“Starbucks commits to expanding in Việt Nam with 100th store plan – Starbucks is committed to expanding further in Việt Nam with its plan of opening the 100th store by the end of the second quarter this year – a decade after the first shop opened in HCM City in February 2013. Currently, the US coffee chain runs 87 outlets across seven cities and provinces nationwide with 50 in HCM City and 24 in Hà Nội and more than 1,000 employees (including 200 coffee masters).”, Vietnam News, January 6, 2023. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

“How Wendy’s Is Turning an All-American Chain Into a Brand for Brits – The brand’s signature sass has been adapted for UK audience. Since its U.K. relaunch in mid-2021, Wendy’s has opened 25 restaurants in the market, with sites in London, Sheffield and Brighton. Now, following a successful 18 months, it has ambitious plans to ramp things up with new spaces in Liverpool and Greater Manchester. The Ohio-founded chain’s most recent debut in the U.K. marked its third crack at the market following two previous unsuccessful forays.”, AdWeek, December 19, 2022

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Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, economic development and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing environment. Our GlobalTeam™ covering 25+ countries provides us with updates about what is happening in their specific countries. 

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During an extraordinary four-decades in international business, William (Bill) Edwards has played a leadership role in the global growth of more than 40 brands. He is widely recognized as an International Problem Solver, Strategist, Advisor and a specialist on global cultures. His career covers international operations, executive and entrepreneurial experience in the energy, technology, licensing, management consulting and retail sectors. He has been a technical specialist, manager, brand senior executive and country president.

Over the years, Bill has made or seen almost every mistake that companies can make when going global. He understands the global company world like few others. As a Global Advisor, he now shares his experiences and wisdom with senior executives to help them successfully navigate the complex international company growth landscape. To take  your business global successfully, contact Bill Edwards at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com or +1 949 224 3896. 

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