EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 104, Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)
Introduction: Perhaps the most critical trend today is discussed in the “Regulate AI? How US, EU and China Are Going About It” article. Perhaps the second most important trend is McDonalds winning over French villages – seriously! Third is probably the fact that cocoa has surged to record prices and that means hot chocolate’s price will soar. The world’s economy has a growing chance of a soft landing and why inflation will drop in 2024. KFC surpasses 30,000 restaurants worldwide.
Reshoring, nearshoring, and friend shoring back into the United Kingdom. Chinese goods flow into Mexico to eventually enter the USA. The global sporting goods industry growth stand out for 2024 (pickleball??). Africa’s population to hit 2.5 billion by 2050. Better days for Australian wine exports ahead. Where are the obesity capitals of the world and why. Japan’s workers secure their highest annual pay raise in 30 years.
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA
Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896
The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.
Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.
First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“The possibilities are numerous once we decide to act and not react”, George Bernard Shaw
“When opportunity comes, it is too late to prepare”, Coach John Wooden
“Whenever you see a successful business, someone once made a courageous decision.”, Peter F. Drucker
Highlights in issue #104:
- Brand Global News Section: Jollibees®, Haidilao®, KFC® and McDonalds®
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“Regulate AI? How US, EU and China Are Going About It – Governments don’t have a great track record of keeping up with emerging technology. But the complex, rapidly evolving field of artificial intelligence raises legal, national security and civil rights concerns that can’t be ignored. The European Union passed a sweeping law that would put guardrails on the technology; in China, no company can produce an AI service without proper approvals. The US is still working on its regulatory approach. Already at work in products as diverse as toothbrushes and drones, systems based on AI have the potential to revolutionize industries from health care to logistics. But replacing human judgment with machine learning carries risks.”, Bloomberg, March 13, 2024
“Mapping Population Growth by Region (1900-2050F) – In fewer than 50 years, the world population has doubled in size, jumping from 4 to 8 billion. China was the main source of Asia’s population expansion, though its population growth has slowed in recent years. That’s why in 2023, India surpassed China to become the world’s most populous country. Southeast Asian countries like the Philippines and Indonesia have also been big drivers of Asia’s population boom to this point. Africa to hit 2.5 billion by 2050. Three countries—Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Egypt—will account for roughly 30% of that 2.5 billion population figure. A century ago, Europe’s population was close to 30% of the world total. Today, that figure stands at less than 10%.” Visual Capitalist and Our World In Data, March 10, 2024
“What types of meat does the world consume? Here’s an approximate breakdown of the percentages of beef, fish, chicken, and pork consumed globally each year:
- Pork: 36% (Most consumed meat globally)
- Chicken: 35%
- Beef: 22%
- Fish: 7%”
Our World In Data, December 2023
“The obesity capitals of the world – A new study shows that waistlines are widening almost everywhere. It was not that long ago that more of the world’s people had too little to eat than ate too much. Now the scales have tipped. A study published on February 29th in the Lancet, a medical journal, shows that more than 1bn people were classified as obese in 2022. The analysis finds higher obesity rates in low- and middle-income countries than in many high-income ones. More than 60% of adults in Polynesia and Micronesia were living with obesity in 2022—the highest rate in the world. This is likely to be a result of changing diets and a culture that puts a value on size.”, The London Economist, March 1, 2024
“Sporting goods industry trends for 2024 – As the world continued its uneven progress in 2023, the sporting goods industry faced familiar challenges. Economic headwinds, persistent inflation, and regional conflicts undermined consumer confidence, while companies continued to struggle with inventories—mainly overstocking, because anticipated demand failed to materialize. But the industry demonstrated its resilience again. Revenue growth in 2023 was 6 percent (compared with 2 percent in 2022) amid stronger performance across geographies.As we begin 2024, this report highlights a renewed sense of optimism among industry leaders. This reflects opportunities arising from an improving market environment and new consumer preferences. More people are choosing sports that are quicker to pick up, require less commitment, and are more social, rather than organized sports with fixed time commitments or requirements for teams or high levels of skill.”, McKinsey & Co., January 30, 2024
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation & Trade Issues
“World Economy Has Growing Chance of Soft Landing, G-20 Says – Finance ministers in Sao Paulo will finalize closing statement Draft cites ‘faster-than-expected disinflation’ as upside risk. The global economy has a growing chance of pulling off a soft landing, finance chiefs said in a draft of the G-20’s closing statement at this week’s meeting in Brazil, citing faster-than-expected disinflation as one of the upside risks. ‘We note that the likelihood of a soft landing in the global economy has increased,’ said the draft communique dated Feb. 23, seen by Bloomberg News. ‘Risks to the global economic outlook are more balanced. Upside risks include faster-than expected disinflation.’”, Bloomberg, February 27, 2024
“Global inflation and interest rates tracker – Central banks around the world are expected to lower borrowing costs as global inflation eases from the multi-decade highs reached in many countries over the past two years. Some institutions, particularly in emerging markets, have already started cutting rates, but many more are forecast to follow this year, including the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. The FT global inflation and interest rates tracker provides a regularly updated visual narrative of consumer price inflation and central bank policy rates around the world.”, The London Financial Times, March 12, 2024
“Your Sweet Tooth Is Getting Expensive – Prices for cocoa, the key ingredient in chocolate, have surged to records. Cocoa prices have climbed past a record set nearly a half-century ago, costing chocolate makers, bakers and aficionados alike. The sharp climb in price for chocolate’s main ingredient started with bad weather in West Africa, where much of the world’s cocoa is grown. Speculators piling into one of the hottest trades outside of artificial intelligence have added fuel to the rally.”, The Wall Street Journal, March 15, 2024
“Inflation Projections by Country, in 2024 – Global economic prospects hang on a delicate balance, largely hinging on the path of inflation. While inflation looks to be easing, there remains the risk of a second wave of price pressures driven by geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions in the Red Sea. Adding to this, a stronger than expected labor market could drive consumer demand, pushing up higher prices. n 2024, global inflation is projected to decline to 5.8%, down from a 6.8% estimated annual average in 2023. Tighter monetary policy and falling energy prices are forecast to dampen price pressures alongside a cooling labor market.”, Visual Capitalist and the International Monetary Fund, February 28, 2024
“Global BEV Market Share: Tesla Retains its #1 Spot for 2023 – Global BEV market share for the full year 2023, based on figures compiled by TrendForce. BEV refers to “battery electric vehicle”, also known as fully electric. This differs from PHEVs (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles), which still have a combustion engine. Analysts expect China’s BYD to surpass Tesla in BEV sales for 2024, given that BYD already outsold Tesla in the fourth quarter of 2023 (526,000 compared to 485,000).” ,Visual Capitalist, February 29, 2024
“Global Fuel Prices Are Surging With Supply Risks Ahead – US pump prices 60% higher than 2020, when Biden was elected. Global oil demand and refinery runs are both forecast to rise. US gasoline futures have jumped sharply in recent weeks and are now up by more than a fifth so far this year, while diesel in Europe has risen 10%. Disruptions on the world’s major trade routes, refinery closures and resurgent demand are pushing up global fuel prices and making forecasts difficult in the run-up to a US presidential election in which inflation will be a key issue. Interruptions to fuel production — a combination of scheduled work, unplanned outages and drone attacks on Russian facilities — have been lifting prices. They’ve come on top of higher shipping costs caused by Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and drought at the Panama Canal, as well as the supply-chain ructions spurred by Western sanctions on the Kremlin.”, Blomberg, March 12, 2024
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Country & Regional Updates
Australia
“China-Australia wine trade barriers seen falling as (Chinese) foreign minister Wang Yi confirms trip down under – Beijing is widely expected to reduce some trade barriers that were imposed in the past few years as relations deteriorated following Canberra’s call for an investigation into the origin of the coronavirus. Australia’s largest wine producer, Treasury Wine Estates, has been informed that the Chinese Ministry of Commerce had issued a draft interim decision outlining the cancellation of additional tariffs on Australian wine, according to a filing with the Australian Securities Exchange on Tuesday.”, South China Morning Post, March 14, 2024
Canada
“Companies must design offices people want to come to – 76 per cent of Canadian companies are partially or fully mandating a return to the office. Offices are not currently designed to meet employees’ needs for collaboration. Companies can make thoughtful design updates that foster connection and support hybrid work so everyone wins. Data from Cisco Canada’s new Reimagining Workspaces Survey shows that there is a gap between what workers are looking for when they return to the office – collaboration – and what companies are currently offering – mostly solo work spaces.”, The Global and Mail, March 17, 2024
India
“On Eve of Elections, India Secures Pivotal $100bn Trade Agreement – India has successfully brokered a comprehensive free-trade pact with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), consisting of Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, and Liechtenstein, injecting a staggering $100 billion investment into the Indian economy. The pact is designed with the objective of curtailing tariffs, simplifying investment frameworks, and enhancing the trade of goods and services. This move is expected to forge a dynamic economic alliance. Finalized after persistent negotiations spanning over a decade and a half, the deal entails India’s agreement to abrogate most import tariffs on industrial products from the EFTA countries, who, in turn, are set to make significant investments in Indian industries, including pharmaceuticals, machinery, and manufacturing, over the next 15 years.”, Intpolicydigest.org, March 12, 2024
Japan
“Japan’s Blowout Wage Result May Spur BOJ March Rate Increase – Japan’s workers secured the largest pay hike in more than 30 years. Largest union group says annual deals hit 5.28% in first tally Biggest gains in more than 30 years may prompt Bank Of Japan (BOJ) move. The stronger-than-expected result may be enough to convince the BOJ to end the world’s last negative rate on Tuesday instead of waiting until April. The central bank has long pursued a goal of achieving sustainable 2% inflation.”, Bloomberg, March 14, 2024
Latin America
“Catalysts of Change: How Entrepreneurs Are Transforming Latin America – In 2021, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) was the fastest-growing region in the world for venture capital (VC) investment, reaching an all-time high of $15.7 billion. At the close of that year, a total of 47 Latin American companies had secured the requisite valuation to be considered a unicorn. Of these 47 companies, a total of 10 had gone public or been acquired in 2022. The start-up ecosystem in LAC is having a considerable impact in the region, catalyzing a generation of innovators to increase competitiveness and economic growth.”, Center for Strategic & International Studies, March 8, 2024
Mexico
“China Goods Flood Into Mexico, Making It Top Global Trade Route – China-to-Mexico containers surged 60% in January, Xeneta says At that rate, Mexico volumes may pass US West Coast by 2031. Global goods trade is struggling to accelerate in most corners of the world economy this year — with one big exception: Chinese goods flowing into Mexico. After jumping almost 35% in 2023 from a year earlier, the number of containers shipped to Mexico from China surged 60% in January, according to a blog post Thursday by Oslo-based Xeneta, which analyzes ocean and air freight markets. ‘This is probably the strongest-growing trade in the world right now’, Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand wrote. The reason, he suggested, has more to do with tariff avoidance than a growing demand from Mexican consumers and businesses to purchase Chinese products.”, Bloomberg, March 14, 2024
Singapore
“Singapore bumps up 2024 GDP forecast on manufacturing growth – lowers headline inflation outlook. GDP is expected to grow at 2.4% in 2024, up from 2.3% forecast in the previous survey, while CPI is estimated to be lower at 3.1%, compared with 3.4% expected earlier. The city-state’s economic growth is expected to increase to 2.5% in 2025. Singapore’s manufacturing sector — which makes up over 20% of the country’s GDP — is now expected to grow at 4% in 2024, up from 2.3%.”, CNBC, March 13, 2024
United Kingdom
“Why firms are bringing their manufacturing back home (to the UK) – Reshoring is when a company decides to stop getting its manufacturing done overseas, such as in China, and instead returns the work to its home country. More than half of UK manufacturers are now reshoring, according to one study at the start of this year. Other firms are “near shoring”, which means that while they are still getting their manufacturing done overseas, they are moving it to a nearer country. And then there is so-called “friend shoring”, whereby you keep your manufacturing abroad, but move it to a country that has friendlier relationships with your own.”, BBC, March 12, 2024
“Increase in UK Jobs for Window Cleaners, Gardeners and Authors – There has also been a growing demand for translators, fashion designers and data entry administrators. The biggest fall in vacancies included those for delivery drivers and couriers, optometrists and prison officers, said the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC).”, Bloomberg, March 16, 2024
United States
“SOCi’s 2024 Consumer Behavior Index – SOCi’s Consumer Behavior Index (CBI) asks U.S. consumers to weigh in on their practices and preferences when interacting on and offline with local businesses. The survey asked1,002 consumers across the U.S. about: The sites and apps they use to research and discover local businesses; The peer feedback about businesses that consumers both use and provide; The importance of open lines of communication between customers and local businesses; and Consumer feelings about AI in local marketing. Our U.S. consumers told us that they search online for local businesses online quite a bit, with 80% saying they do so at least once
a week and 32% searching every day or even multiple times a day.”, SOCI and the International Franchise Association, February 14, 2024
“Small businesses employment and job vacancy growth by region – Monthly employment growth rates and levels for small businesses with 1-9 employees (seasonally adjusted), showing the number of people employed in each region by businesses of this size and the monthly change in employment. National sample: almost 333,000 small businesses that run payroll with QuickBooks. The Index uses QuickBooks anonymized data to create aggregated data outputs which are normalized against official statistics to reflect the general population of small businesses, rather than the QuickBooks customer base. Regions are defined by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.”, Intuit, February 2, 2024
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Brand & Franchising News
“KFC surpasses 30K restaurants globally – KFC is opening a new restaurant somewhere in the world every 3.5 hours on average. KFC’s newest restaurant in Rome, Italy, marks the company’s 30,000th global location. In 2023, KFC opened nearly 2,7000 restaurants across 96 countries, a 10% development pace and setting a brand development record. More than 80% of unit growth came from 15 publicly traded franchisees. KFC accounts for nearly 50% of parent company Yum Brands’ divisional operating growth.”, Nation’s Restaurant News, March 12, 2024
“Why has Haidilao opened its franchise business and catering chain franchises become so popular? In recent years, many catering brands have opened up franchises, and China’s catering chain process has accelerated. On March 4, Haidilao announced the opening of a franchise model to further expand. According to the company’s financial report, as of June 30, 2023, Haidilao had a total of 1,382 stores in Greater China, of which about 17% were located in first-tier cities, about 40% were opened in second-tier cities, and another 40% were opened in third-tier and below cities.”, Caixin, March 4, 2024. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto.
“Why McDonald’s is winning over French villages – Despite years of protests the chain is expanding in rural France — and as traditional cafés close, young people are embracing the fast-food giant. The local café used to be a focus of social life in French villages, a place to enjoy a leisurely coffee, catch up on gossip or savour an aperitif after work. Some 70 per cent of village cafés have been forced to close, however, as rural populations have dwindled and habits have changed. Now, an unlikely newcomer may be replacing them as a place for young people to socialise in small communities: McDonald’s. Long popular in French towns and cities, McDonald’s is expanding into rural areas. Surprisingly perhaps, it appears to be welcome.”, The Sunday Times of London, March 14, 2024
“Jollibee Targets Exponential Growth in China to Triple Profit – Company allots up to 23 billion pesos (US$415,00,000) for capital spending It plans to sell preferred shares to raise 8 billion pesos. With 6,885 stores at the end of 2023, the company plans to open another 700 to 750 outlets this year and boost its network in multiple lower-tier cities in China as it ramps up franchising to expand globally. Aggressive expansion plans in China of the food chain known for its crispy fried chicken and sweet spaghetti comes as the Philippines’ assertive stance in the South China Sea has made some businesses cautious.”, Bloomberg, March 11, 2024
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing environment. Our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provides us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries.
William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.
For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business global successfully, contact Bill Edwards at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com or +1 949 224 3896.
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EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 103, Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)
Introduction: This is one of the largest issues of our newsletter ever. Trends from Argentina, Brazil, Canada, China, India, Ireland, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the USA and Vietnam. Chocolate, coffee, marketing, EVs, GDP growth, pickleball, unemployment, freedom and consumers. Applebee’s®, Athlete’s Foot®, Buffalo Wild Wings®, Dairy Queen®, IHOP®, KFC® and Sprinkles®. Eclectic!!!!
To receive this currently free biweekly newsletter every other Tuesday in your email, click here: https://bit.ly/geowizardsignup
The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad.
NOTE: We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.
First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“I’m a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it.” – Thomas Jefferson
“It’s not what you don’t know that gets you in trouble but what you know that just ain’t so!” – Mark Twain
“Opportunities multiply as they are seized.” – Sun Tzu, 544 BC-496 BC.
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Highlights in issue #103:
- (U.S.) Small Business Owners’ Optimism Reaches A 22-Year High
- Brand Global News Section: Applebee’s®, Athlete’s Foot®, Buffalo Wild Wings®, Dairy Queen®, IHOP®, KFC® and Sprinkles®
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“Global Savings Glut’s Demise Threatens Higher Borrowing Costs – Aging populations, economic fragmentation to push yields up Draghi sees reversal of era of falling global interest rates. Ben Bernanke’s global savings glut is drying up. Long-term interest rates worldwide may be heading higher as a result. Aging populations, an embattled Chinese economy and an increasingly fragmented global one are among the factors threatening to turn the surplus of savings the former Federal Reserve chair identified almost 20 years ago into a shortfall. The result, according to some economists: A reversal of the decades-long trend toward lower interest rates as borrowers from Washington on down are forced to pay up for a dwindling supply of excess cash.”, Bloomberg, February 28, 2024
“The US Economy is Outperforming Much of the Rest of the World – For much of the world, the past few years, including last year, have been particularly difficult from an economic standpoint. However, for the United States economy, 2023 proved to be a surprisingly strong year, despite lingering inflationary pressures, high interest rates and persistent labor shortages. Moreover, while economic sentiment among the US public has risen, it still low enough to suggest that the US economy has been performing poorly. However, it has not, especially when it is compared to its contemporaries around the world.”, LinkedIn, February 26, 2024
“Employment Returns to Pre-Pandemic Levels – But the data hide major weaknesses in the labor market. Global employment rates have returned to pre-pandemic levels despite 2023’s macroeconomic downturns. Yet, multiple indicators reveal underlying fragility in the labor market. The Ukraine war, Gaza conflict, U.S.-China trade tensions and other geopolitical conflicts continue to inject uncertainty, driving central banks to aggressive actions. Consequently, global economic growth has decelerated. Labor market imbalances persist in advanced and some emerging economies.”, Geopolitical Futures, March 3, 2024
“2024 Atlas Freedom and Prosperity Around the World – Democracy and freedom are in crisis. Freedom House reports that democracy around the world has been in constant retreat for seventeen con- secutive years.1 In 2021, sixty countries experienced declines in their democracy score, while only twenty-five showed improvement. Today, the world is less democratic than it has been at any time since 1997. Concurrently, there has been a steep decline in support for democracy. In international surveys, 60 percent of respondents reported a positive view of democracy in the mid-1990s; the number now stands at 50 percent.”, Atlantic Council Freedom and Prosperity Center, Early 2024
“Four Marketing Trends to Elevate Brand Loyalty in 2024 – Getting ahead of the curve in marketing will be essential for organizations in 2024 — and beyond. AI and technology are impacting nearly every aspect of how marketers create, collaborate and operate. It’s never been more important (or difficult) to cut through the noise and innovate your brand while remaining relevant. (Here) are four trends that we anticipate will shape the marketing landscape in 2024: Understanding these will help keep your customers loyal and you competitive in the year ahead.”, Compliments of Steve Dobbins, theDobbins Group, February 2024
“Pickleball nets fans – The sporting goods sector has shown resilience despite subdued consumer confidence in recent years. Although participation in organized sports has declined, senior partner Gemma D’Auria and coauthors note, consumers instead are favoring more accessible activities. Pickleball participation has shot up 159 percent from 2019 to 2022, and off-course golf grew 57 percent during that span.”, McKinsey & Co., March 1, 2024
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation & Trade Issues
“Tracking global data on electric vehicles – Explore data on electric car sales and stocks worldwide. Globally, around 1-in-7 new cars sold was electric in 2022. (the preliminary estimate for 2023 is around 1-in-5). In Norway, the share was well over 4-in-5, and in China, it was around 1-in-3.”, Our World In Data, February 26, 2024
“Chocolate Makers Try a New Recipe: Less Chocolate – The soaring cost of cocoa has made candy manufacturers crank out new treats with less of the expensive ingredient—or none at all. Cocoa prices have climbed to record highs, and market participants don’t expect any near-term relief. Prices have skyrocketed as the world’s biggest producers in West Africa grapple with drought and disease as well as structural problems that could linger for years to come.”, Bloomberg, February 29, 2024
“Coffee powerhouses Indonesia and Vietnam are sourcing beans from Brazil to meet surging demand at home – Some of Asia’s biggest coffee-producing nations are finding it more challenging to satisfy the caffeine cravings in their home markets.From the streets of Ho Chi Minh City to the cafes of Jakarta, consumers are rapidly developing a taste for coffee, and that’s transforming Asian producers into large buyers. While Vietnam and Indonesia still rank as major shippers, they are increasingly sourcing coffee from agriculture powerhouse Brazil to meet the consumption boom. Both Indonesia and Vietnam, big growers of the bitter robusta variety favored to make espresso and instant drinks, prefer to export their coffee production while importing for domestic consumption — their own beans are more expensive than Brazil’s. Coffee’s cool factor at home is a good indication that the imports will continue, especially after extreme weather and insufficient yields over the past years have weighed on global production.”, Fortune, March 2, 2024
“Marigold Releases Its 2024 Global Consumer Trends Index – The 2024 Global Consumer Trends Index is an annual research study designed to provide brands with consumer data and insights critical to developing effective relationship marketing strategies. For the 2024 iteration, Marigold, in conjunction with Econsultancy, surveyed a total of 10,394 consumers from the following regions: Australia and New Zealand, the Benelux Region, Denmark, France, Germany, Japan, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The survey was conducted from September to November 2023.”, Franchising.com, February 29, 2024
“Strengthening fraying ties: The Global Cooperation Barometer 2024 – Global cooperation is key to better human lives. Our new barometer, developed with the World Economic Forum, can help leaders track trends, monitor critical outcomes, and act to increase cooperation. The barometer takes the pulse of five pillars of global cooperation—trade and capital flows, innovation and technology, climate and natural capital, health and wellness, and peace and security. The world is at an inflection point. The barometer indicates that global cooperation has stalled, after trending positively for much of the past decade.”, McKinsey & Co., February 27, 2024
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Country & Regional Updates
Argentina
“Argentina’s Javier Milei says he doesn’t need congress to save the economy – Libertarian president argues that ‘capitalism, savings and hard work’ are the way to exit poverty. Argentina’s libertarian president Javier Milei is ready to bypass hostile legislators who blocked his landmark economic reforms and rely on decrees and other executive powers to implement his radical austerity plan. His strategy for reviving the stricken economy is widely perceived as high-risk, but Milei waved aside doubts during a confident interview at the pink-coloured presidential palace, the Casa Rosada.”, The Financial Times, February 28, 2024
Brazil
“Lula’s gaffes are dulling Brazil’s G20 shine – Its relationships with the West are healing. But Brazil has not decided what kind of country it will be. After being in power between 2003 and 2010, the first year of Lula’s third term in office has, for the most part, been a repudiation of conspiracy and insularity. Economic revival after a decade-long slump has lent Lula more heft. Analysts initially reckoned gdp might grow by just 0.8% in 2023, the year he took office. Official figures, due to be published as The Economist went to press, are expected to show it grew by 3%.”, The Economist, February 27, 2024
Canada
“Canadian economy returns to growth, with heavy assist from U.S. – The Canadian economy is nearing a soft landing as it resumed growth in the final months of 2023, allowing the country to skirt a recession in what was otherwise a sluggish year. Real gross domestic product rose at an annualized pace of 1 per cent in the fourth quarter, Statistics Canada said on Thursday, outpacing analyst estimates of 0.8 per cent.”, The Globe and Mail, February 29, 2024
China
“What’s Wrong With China’s Economy, in Eight Charts – Challenges multiply after the country’s years of rapid growth. China’s economy is at a turning point. An old economic model underpinned by heavy investment in infrastructure and real estate is crumbling. Growth is slowing and prices are falling, raising the specter of a Japan-style slide into stagnation. How did the world’s second-largest economy get into such a mess?”, The Wall Street Journal, March 1, 2024
“Yum China CEO says consumers are growing more ‘rational’ as rising costs cut dining budgets – While economists and investors fret over China’s low consumer confidence and sluggish growth, Yum China CEO Joey Wat says the Chinese consumer is growing more rational — and has been for years. Weighed down by investors’ concern about the broader Chinese economy, shares of Yum China have fallen 27% over the past year, dragging its market value down to $17.51 billion. For comparison, Licensor Yum Brands, which spun off the Chinese unit in 2016 and has a global footprint, has seen its own stock rise 8%, giving it a market value of $38.87 billion. Despite Wall Street’s worries, Yum China’s sales are growing.”, CNBC, March 1, 2024
“Foreign firms say China s economic woes geopolitical feuds won’t scare them off but they’re investing less – Latest poll from American Chamber of Commerce in South China found that Chinese firms were much more keen on ramping up investments, but most US firms still plan to. However, there was a massive drop-off in reinvestment interest among firms from elsewhere, showing how market uncertainties and concerns in China persist. In a survey by the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in South China, involving 183 respondents polled from October 9 to December 31, 49 per cent were from the US, 35 per cent were from China and the rest were from other regions, including Europe. It said most were ‘optimistic about the growth of the Chinese market’, with 76 per cent planning to reinvest in China – a year-on-year rise of 1 percentage point. And there was a massive drop-off among firms from elsewhere, with only 11 per cent planning in to reinvest in China – way down from 71 per cent a year prior.”, South China Morning Post, February 27, 2024. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
India
“India Q3 GDP growth surges to 8.4%, exceeding expectations – PM Modi cruises to election as government upgrades this year’s forecast. The government also revised up its GDP growth forecast for the year ending in March 2024 to 7.6%, from its January projection of 7.3%. India is set for a general election due in April and May this year, when Modi will be seeking a third term.”, Nikkei Asia, February 29, 2024
“Indian Households Boost Discretionary Spending, Survey Shows – Indian household spending has more than doubled in over a decade with discretionary items getting a larger share of expenditure, a government report showed, providing clues for companies tapping on the world’s most populous nation. Households are spending less as a percentage on food items, the survey showed, giving insight on consumption patterns of Indian households. Expenditure on discretionary items such as clothes, television sets and entertainment increased, according to the report.”, Bloomberg, February 24, 2024
Ireland
“Irish domestic economic growth slowed more than expected in 2023 – Ireland’s domestic economy expanded by just 0.5% last year, far below the 2.2% expected by the country’s finance department following a continued fall in investment in the final quarter, official data showed on Friday. With Ireland’s large multinational sector often distorting gross domestic product (GDP), officials prefer to use modified domestic demand (MDD) to gauge the strength of the economy and it contracted 0.4% quarter-on-quarter from October to December.”, The Daily Mail, March 1, 2024
Japan
“Japan Is Back. Is Inflation the Reason? Deflation might be vanquished, but the payoff could be elusive. It also comes amid mounting evidence that Japan has finally broken the hold of deflation. Inflation in January was 2.2%, the 22nd month above 2%. Wage growth has picked up too. This appears to vindicate the economic consensus that deflation was a primary driver of Japan’s decades long malaise. But that conclusion might be premature. Proof of deflation’s harm has been elusive, and the benefits of low, positive inflation might be similarly subtle.”, The Wall Street Journal, February 29, 2024
South Korea
“South Korea’s Exports Keep Rising, Supporting Growth Outlook – South Korea serves as a key link in global trade as its companies are positioned widely across a variety of supply chains. South Korean exports continued to grow last month, adding to the optimistic outlook for economic growth and global commerce this year. The Bank of Korea last week maintained its forecast that gross domestic product will grow 2.1% in 2024, pointing to the recovery in exports.”, Bloomberg, February 29, 2024
Turkey
“Turkish stocks soar in world-leading rally as ‘tech mania’ grips market – Equities gain 20% in dollar terms as hot inflation again pushes savers into shares. Turkish stocks have notched up a world-leading rally this year as “tech mania” grips the country’s equities market and runaway inflation again sends local savers piling into shares. The broad Borsa Istanbul all-share index has risen around 20 per cent in US dollar terms since the start of 2024, led by a 61 per cent jump in the technology sector, Bloomberg data shows. Turkey’s gains this year are the sharpest among the countries tracked by MSCI’s All-World indices.”, The Financial Times, February 29, 2024
United Kingdom
“London and southeast’s economy ‘to pull further away from rest of UK’ – Economic growth and employment in London and the southeast will outpace the rest of the UK over the next three years, according to new forecasts that deliver a blow to the government’s levelling-up ambitions. Britain’s economic inequalities are on course to widen, EY, a professional services firm, said in its latest projections for regional growth, which show that London’s economy is on course to expand by 2.1 per cent between 2024 and 2027, and 2 per cent in the broader southeast.”, The Times of London, March 4, 2024
United States
“(U.S.) Small Business Owners’ Optimism Reaches A 22-Year High – Markets are doing well, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting their best February since 2015, and the Dow with its best performance since 2021.According to the personal consumption expenditures index, a key inflation indicator watched closely by the Federal Reserve, Americans spent 2.4% more this January than in January 2023, which is the lowest reading on this scale since March 2021. PNC’s semi-annual survey of small and mid-sized businesses found that 55% of these business owners are highly optimistic about the national economy, up from 26% who felt that way a year ago. Nearly eight in 10 (79%) said they are highly optimistic about the prospects for their own businesses.”, Forbes, March 4, 2024
“Return-to-Work Policies Devolve Into a Toxic Cultural Flashpoint – The debate over working remotely has turned ugly as companies call employees back to the office and workers resist the loss of a popular perk. Nearly four years after pandemic-induced office shutdowns, the fight over working remotely or showing up in person has become a cultural flashpoint as bosses increasingly summon employees back to the office and workers resist the loss of a popular perk. Two thirds of the country thinks the subject has become unnecessarily politicized, according to a nationally representative survey conducted for Bloomberg News by the Harris Poll. Seventy-four percent think employees need to stop complaining about having to go back in office.”, Bloomberg, March 2, 2024
Vietnam
“Vietnam: Hanoi May Allow Union Formation To Avert Trade Disputes – Vietnam will ratify the U.N. International Labor Organization’s Convention 87, which allows the free establishment of trade unions, this year, according to U.N. officials cited by Reuters on Feb. 27. The U.N. standard on the free organization of labor is a basic component of the broader U.N. framework, so ratifying it would help Vietnam avoid trade disputes that could damage its economy. While allowing union formation in Vietnam would increase labor costs, which would slightly dent the country’s attractiveness as a foreign investment destination, Vietnam will remain an attractive pivot country away from China, likely enabling Vietnam to maintain the current level of high interest.”, Worldview – Stratfor, February 27, 2024
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Brand & Franchising News
“China, Thailand Among Key Markets as Dairy Queen Targets International Growth – Ice cream is big business in Thailand. With more than 500 Dairy Queen locations, it’s one of the largest international markets for the brand, and for master franchisee Minor Food it’s viewed as a key growth vehicle with plenty of runway ahead. ‘The only two seasons are hot and hotter, or rainy and rainier,’ said Anhul Chauhan of Thailand’s tropical climate that makes it ideal for year-round ice cream sales. ‘And the Thai customer has a sweet tooth.’”, Franchise Times, January 26, 2024
Small Businesses, Big Brands: Franchising’s $893.9B Impact in ’24 – If national business headlines have you convinced the sky is falling, I invite you to read the 2024 Franchising Economic Outlook that was recently released by FRANdata and the International Franchise Association. Because, once again, the franchise community is propping up the economy in cities and states with record growth:
“New Data Shows Franchising Continues To Exceed Growth Expectations”
By Monica Feid, Co-Founder/COO, BizCom Associates
“Applebee’s and IHOP eye co-branded locations in the U.S. – Dual locations have generated strong returns overseas and could provide a spark to the chains’ domestic development. Parent company Dine Brands has already opened eight such locations in Canada, the United Arab Emirates and Mexico. The restaurants are the same size as a regular Applebee’s or IHOP, but generate twice as much revenue because they cover all four dayparts, CEO John Peyton said Wednesday. ‘The two brands are extraordinarily complimentary,’ he said.”, Restaurant Business, February 28, 2024
“KFC Fried Chicken Flavors You Won’t Find In The US – Classics are classic for a reason, but given that there are approximately 27,000 KFCs spread over 145 nations and territories, some locations offer fried chicken flavors that are truly unique. Depending on where you’re placing your KFC order, those flavors can vary dramatically. These unique fried chicken tastes are opportunities for different countries to celebrate national flavors and dream up some unexpected combinations. In some cases, the menu choices are also indicative of unique cultural food practices. So, want to know which KFCs have fried chicken that’s one of a kind? These are the KFC chicken flavors you won’t find in the U.S.”, Mashed, March 2, 2024
“Destination MENA: 9 restaurant franchises with regional potential – As one exciting year for international franchising comes to an end and another begins, Farrah Rose, head of international development at The Franchising Centre, takes a globe-trotting look at some of the restaurant concepts causing a stir worldwide, from poke to Parisian pastries.”, Hospitality News Middle East, February 27, 2024
“PE Backing Can Fuel Franchise Growth – Private equity is reshaping the franchise industry and enabling brands to accelerate growth and fast-track innovation. The influence of PE backing is creating opportunities and challenges for franchise businesses. Private equity’s willingness to purchase a franchise business for more than the market value is hard for many successful brands to pass up. Roark Capital’s acquisition of Buffalo Wild Wings in 2017 was valued at more than 30% of its market capitalization. A private equity firm can help a franchise with a strong regional market expand its reach.”, Forbes, February 27, 2024
“Accent Group calls time on The Athlete’s Foot franchise model – The multi-brand business reports its ongoing franchise acquisition strategy “has driven significant operational efficiency and growth for the business over the last six years”. So far the business has acquired 73 TAF stores. It announced it will not renew the agreements of the remaining 62 franchise territories. The agreements are set to expire over the next five years. The group projects integration of the stores could add an incremental $170 million to owned sales annually. This forecast is based on FY23 franchise sales.”, Inside Retail (Australia), February 28, 2024
“Sprinkles Sets Sail: Enters South Korean Market as First International Venture – The renowned bakery brand, famous for its cupcakes, cakes, cookies, and brownies, has unveiled plans to expand its footprint in Asia, with subsequent openings scheduled in Singapore and Malaysia. With ambitions to establish over 18 new bakeries in global markets starting from 2024, Sprinkles aims to introduce its delectable offerings to a wider audience. The inaugural Sprinkles store in South Korea is slated to launch in Seoul, according to a report by The Korea Herald.”, VF Franchise Consulting, March 2, 2024
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Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing environment. Our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provides us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries.
William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.
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