Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 129, Tuesday, March 4, 2025

The Impact Of Trade Imbalances And The Resulting Broad Tariffs

Commentary about the 129th Issue:  Much of this issue is about tariffs being put on a wide range of products first by the USA and then by its trading partners We also look at the massive trade imbalance between what the USA exports and what its main trading partners import from the USA. AI infrastructure spending continues to rocket up. A look at shipbuilding which also have a massive difference between the USA and other countries and what this means to global trade. Which countries are the most corrupt and which are not. And advice on doing business in the Middle East during Ramadan. McDonalds® is no longer the largest fast food chain in the world!!

One More Thing: The price of eggs in the USA and how restaurants are adapting to what appear to be increasing food prices…….again. Even Turkey is involved in supplying eggs to the USA.

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But First……The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.  

PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.

Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896

https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/ +1 949 375 1896

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“Most people, companies, and teams fail because they do the wrong thing, they fail because they did the right thing for too long.”, Rajeev Kapur

“Whether you think you can, or think you can’t – you’re right.”, Henry Ford

“Difficulties mastered are opportunities won.”, Winston Churchill

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Highlights in issue #129:

China and Canada Hit Back as Trump’s Tariffs Kick In

The True Cost of U.S. Tariffs on Canada

Navigating Tariffs and Trade Uncertainty: South Korea’s Next Moves

The Chicken and The Egg Headlines

Forget McDonalds This Chinese Fast Food Chain Is Now the World’s Biggest.

Navigating Gulf Business during the Holy Month

Which Countries Are The Most Corrupt?

Brand Global News Section: Mixue®, McDonalds®

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“Why AI Spending Isn’t Slowing Down – Soaring demand for reasoning models will consume electricity, microchips and data-center real estate for the foreseeable future. Despite a brief period of investor doubt, money is pouring into artificial intelligence from big tech companies, national governments and venture capitalists at unprecedented levels. The technology is shifting away from conventional large language models and toward reasoning models and AI agents. Owing to their enhanced capabilities, these reasoning systems will likely soon become the default way that people use AI for many tasks.”, The Wall Street Journal, February 21, 2025

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“Which Countries Are The Most Corrupt? The Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) of 180 countries and territories. The CPI ranks countries and territories worldwide by their perceived levels of public sector corruption. Data is for 2024 and comes from Transparency International.  CPI scores are calculated through a combination of at least 3 data sources drawn from 13 different corruption surveys and assessments, answered by experts and business executives. Sub-Saharan Africa had the lowest regional CPI score in 2024, with an average of 33. South Sudan had the lowest CPI score out of all countries surveyed, followed by Somalia which had a CPI score of 9. Nordic countries ranked the highest, with Denmark coming in first–for the seventh year in a row–with a score of 90, followed by Finland at 88.”, Visual Capitalist & Transparency International, March 2025

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues

“In Shipbuilding, the U.S. Is Tiny and Rusty – Asian shipyards churn out hundreds of big boxships and oil tankers a year. The U.S. is lucky if it can finish more than one each year. It has been that way for decades. Few major American shipyards remain and they now mostly build or repair vessels for the U.S. Navy. Those that do produce new commercial ships mostly make small vessels for U.S. companies operating on domestic routes, not the giant containerships and ocean vessels that underpin global trade. hina now dominates the shipbuilding industry, accounting for more than half of world tonnage in 2023 and 74% of orders for new ships last year. The biggest shipping lines, such as MSC, Maersk and CMA CGM, now rely on hundreds of Chinese built ships to move goods around the world.”, The Wall Street Journal, March 2, 2025

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“The Countries Driving America’s $1.2 Trillion Trade Deficit in Goods – Growing gaps with Mexico and Vietnam add to the biggest imbalance the U.S. faces—with China. The U.S. had a record $1.2 trillion goods trade deficit in 2024, driven by its largest trading partners. The U.S. runs goods trade deficits with most European countries, with the exceptions including the Netherlands and the U.K. The goods deficit with India has doubled since the first year of Donald Trump’s first term. The U.S. imported $1.2 trillion more in goods in 2024 than it exported, a record annual deficit and a major economic irritant for President Trump. On Feb. 13, the president announced that his administration would evaluate tariffs and other trade barriers imposed on U.S. exports by other nations and match them with “reciprocal” tariffs. Those deficits were mitigated only slightly by surpluses the U.S. had in 2024 with Hong Kong, Australia and Singapore.”, The Wall Street Journal, March 1, 2025

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“China and Canada Hit Back as Trump’s Tariffs Kick In – China hit back as Donald Trump’s new tariffs came into effect. It imposed levies of up to 15% on American agricultural goods and banned exports to some defense companies, escalating a trade warbetween the world’s two largest economies. Canada also retaliated, putting tariffs on $107 billion of US products. The first stage is 25% tariffs on about C$30 billion ($20.6 billion) worth of goods from US exporters, and will go into effect at 12:01 a.m. New York time unless the US drops its tariffs, Trudeau said. A second round of tariffs at the same rate will be placed on C$125 billion of products in three weeks — a list that will include big-ticket items like cars, trucks, steel and aluminum.”, Bloomberg, March 4, 2025

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Global, Regional & Country Travel

“(U.S.) Federal government layoffs affect official and leisure travel – Travel advisors are feeling the impact as mass layoffs of the federal workforce chill travel plans for current and former employees and government contractors.  The Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), formed in January, initiated a sweeping campaign to streamline the federal government and slash spending, which has included eliminating thousands of jobs.  Further, a Feb. 27 executive order took aim at federal employee travel, directing government agencies to prohibit travel without written and approved justification for the trip. The directive also requires that federal agencies, with assistance from DOGE, build a system that records approval for federally funded travel for conferences and other nonessential purposes.”, Travel Weekly, March 3, 2025

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Book Review

I
A Brief History of Intelligence: Evolution, AI, and the Five Breakthroughs That Made Our Brains by  Max S. Bennett  provides valuable insights for business leaders, particularly in decision-making, innovation, and AI adoption. 

This book helps business leaders better understand AI, adaptability, and decision-making, offering valuable perspectives for navigating the future of business and technology. Here’s how the book impacts business strategy:

Understanding Intelligence & Adaptation – Just as intelligence evolved through key breakthroughs, businesses must adapt and evolve in response to changing markets, technology, and consumer behavior. Companies that fail to innovate risk becoming obsolete.

AI & Business Strategy – The book highlights how human intelligence shaped AI. Business leaders can better integrate AI into operations, ensuring human-AI collaboration rather than just automation.

Data-Driven Decision Making – Mental simulation and learning from past experiences mirror predictive analytics in business. Understanding how intelligence evolved helps leaders make more strategic, forward-thinking decisions.

Social Cognition & Leadership – Business success depends on team dynamics, collaboration, and emotional intelligence—all crucial aspects of human intelligence that AI has yet to master.

Communication & Market Influence – Language shaped human progress; in business, effective communication, storytelling, and brand messaging are critical for market leadership.

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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification

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Country & Regional Updates

Canada

“The True Cost of U.S. Tariffs on Canada – The Canada-U.S. trading relationship is at an inflection point, and how we meet this moment will affect North American economic security and competitiveness for decades to come. By trading essential goods at competitive prices, Canada and the United States make life more affordable for millions of people in both countries. But tariffs threaten this mutually beneficial partnership. While they’ll hit Canadian exporters hardest, the true cost will be felt far more widely, including by U.S. companies, workers and consumers. In a trade war, there are no winners. Potential tariffs on Canadian exports could take effect as early as March 4, including 25% on goods and 10% on energy.”, Advocacy – CalChamber, February 25, 2025

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China

“Holiday Spending Gives Chinese Consumption a Needed Boost – The average daily sales of the country’s consumption industries grew by 10.8% compared with last year’s holiday, according to the State Taxation Administration, based on value-added tax data. Consumption of goods rose 9.9% and services 12.3%. Wu Chaoming, chief economist at Hunan province-based investment firm Chasing Financial, attributed the growth to consumer preferences for activities that bring joy and emotional value, as well as local governments’ efforts to stimulate spending through vouchers for tourism, dining and movies. Despite the holiday-driven rebound, there are signs that many Chinese consumers remain reluctant to splurge, suggesting the recovery may be short-lived.”, Caixing Global, February 21, 2025

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“Chinese Carmakers Expand Into Growing Central Asian Markets – Chinese automakers are pushing deeper into Central Asian markets through exports and manufacturing localization after Russia’s crackdown on a lucrative loophole that allowed re-exports of vehicles through Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) member states. Last year, China-made cars accounted for 39% of the 205,111 vehicles sold in Kazakhstan, the region’s largest economy. That’s up from 10% in 2021, according to a recent report by Kazinform News Agency. Market observers attributed the growing popularity of Chinese car brands to their lower prices, product diversification and promotions by local dealerships, the report said.’, Caixing Global, February 20, 2025

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The Middle East

“Ramadan Etiquette for Westerners: Navigating Gulf Business during the Holy Month – As Ramadan approaches, Western professionals engaging in business in the Gulf region must adapt their practices to align with this sacred month of reflection, community, and tradition. Understanding and respecting Ramadan etiquette is crucial for maintaining strong relationships and demonstrating cultural sensitivity. Let’s explore how Ramadan influences business in the Gulf and provide essential tips for navigating this period with respect and success.”, Star Kat, February 23, 2025. Compliments of Corina Goetz.

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South Korea

“Navigating Tariffs and Trade Uncertainty: South Korea’s Next Moves – As U.S. tariff threats mount, South Korea’s key industries brace for impact, navigating shifting trade policies and economic uncertainty, writes Don Southerton. When examining trade between nations, 2025 is particularly worrisome. Recent concerns are widespread. Specifically, the Trump administration’s threats of tariffs against countries like South Korea emphasize that there will be no exceptions, even with a Free Trade Agreement revised under Trump 1.0. Newly appointed President Trump announced that he will introduce a 25% tariff on autos, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductor chips. More immediately, levies on automobiles could be coming as soon as April 2.”, Branding In Asia, March 3, 2025

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Turkey

“Major Egg Shipper Turkey to Tax Exports as US Snaps Up Supply – Turkey — one of the world’s biggest egg shippers — introduced a tax on exports to help control domestic prices, as bird flu outbreaks squeeze supply on the global market.  Exporters will pay the lira equivalent of $0.50 per kilogram under the new measure, effective from Wednesday, according to a Trade Ministry statement earlier this week. It cited expectations of further demand growth abroad and the need to protect “consumer welfare” during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which begins on March 1. Bloomberg, February 27, 2025

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“Turkey Set to Exit Recession Just as Rate Cuts Add Economic Push – Lower borrowing costs seen helping growth accelerate in 2025. Rates were cut to 45% from 50% across two policy meetings as inflation continued to trend lower from a high of 75% last year — but it remains significantly above the official target. In January, consumer prices rose 42% year-on-year, reflecting slower disinflation than expected and hinting at the challenge ahead for policymakers.” Bloomberg, February 27, 2025

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United States

“US GDP Held Steady While Inflation Marked Higher at End of 2024 – Economy grew at an unrevised 2.3% pace, fueled by consumers. Core PCE price index rose 2.7%, up from 2.5% in prior estimate. The report showcases an economy that continued to expand at a solid pace on the shoulders of resilient consumer spending. While elevated interest rates and a higher cost of living are taking a bigger toll on lower-income households, many Americans are benefiting from healthy pay growth and hiring.”, Bloomberg, February 27, 2925

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“The Chicken and The Egg Headlines – Egg prices rose more than 15% from December to January. If memory serves, it was the price of a whole chicken that rose some 14.8% from ’22 to ’23. Who knew chicken-laying hens and broiler chickens could command such attention? For context, the current egg shortage is due to the bird flu disproportionately impacting some 75% of losses among egg-laying hens versus 9% of losses with broilers. But God bless the restaurants. They continue to work hard to find new efficiencies, economies of scale, speed of service and menu innovations. They flash the open sign, welcome our cash-strapped communities through the door and drive-thru, deliver service with a smile, and repeat it day after day. They also do everything within their power to not raise prices. In fact, the last thing they want to do is make it easy for customers to stay away.”, From an article on LinkedIn by Monica Feid, February 26, 2025

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“Business – American consumer confidence fell sharply in February, in part because of expectations that inflation will rise over the coming months and increasing pessimism about the economy. The data suggest that Donald Trump’s trade war and his imposition of tariffs on even friendly trading partners is starting to worry consumers.”, The Economist, February 27, 2025

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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades

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Brand & Franchising News

 “Trade war could see American franchises replaced by Canadian versions – The expansion of a U.S. franchise brand into Canada has typically been met with fanfare. Given the size of the U.S. market and Canada’s close proximity to the border, Canadians have always had visibility into which chains are the most exciting. Canadian franchisees will soon find that U.S. franchises are an increasingly expensive proposition. The combination of a high exchange rate and new tariffs will make U.S. franchise brands less attractive, forcing Canadian entrepreneurs to look domestically for opportunities. In response, Canadian franchise brands have a chance to expand, capturing a larger share of the domestic market and offering business owners a more viable path to success.”, The Globe & Mail, March 2, 2025

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“Forget McDonalds This Chinese Fast Food Chain Is Now the World’s Biggest. Mixue lures cost-conscious customers with ice cream and drinks under $1 during China’s economic slump. Mixue is found across Asia and Australia and ended last year with 45,000 stores. Mixue is found across Asia and Australia and ended last year with 45,000 stores. It sells ice cream and sugary drinks for under $1. Its mascot looks like the love child of Frosty the Snowman and the Michelin Man. And its stores relentlessly blare a jingle set to the tune of ‘Oh! Susanna.’ This recipe helped Mixue Ice Cream and Tea become the world’s biggest food-and-beverage chain by number of locations, topping McDonald’s and Starbucks. Mixue was founded in 1997 by Zhang Hongchao, who opened a store selling shaved ice in Henan, a Chinese heartland province. Its blistering expansion can be explained by the simplicity of its bright red stores, often stalls wedged next to phone-repair kiosks or dumpling shops.”, The Wall Street Journal, March 3, 2025. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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“McDonald’s Resists Extra Egg Charge, Offers $1 McMuffin Deal – Not only is McDonald’s Corp. saying it will spare customers an egg surcharge, it will also launch a one-day offer on the McMuffin sandwich for just $1. The discount celebrates 50 years of breakfast menu items, and arrives as an avian flu crisis pushes US egg prices to record highs.  ‘Unlike others making news recently, you definitely won’t see McDonald’s USA issuing surcharges on eggs,’ the company’s North American Chief Impact Officer Michael Gonda said in a post on LinkedIn.  The Egg McMuffin promotion provides some relief for budget-conscious Americans squeezed by an ongoing egg shortage. Bloomberg, February 25, 2025

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“Franchisors Say Labor Challenges Have Wide-Ranging Impacts – In a survey conducted by the International Franchise Association, in partnership with Frandata, a combined 37 percent listed the quality and cost of labor as the primary challenge. Of that amount, 26 percent cited the quality of labor and 13 percent said it was the cost. It marks a reverse from 2024 when more franchisors saw a problem in the cost of labor than quality.  The annual survey included responses from 171 senior executive franchisors and franchise portfolio companies that own 229 brands, representing 96,000 locations. The study was conducted from January 8-17 and had franchisors with unit counts ranging from 10 to more than 9,500. Across all of those sectors, 70 percent of the franchisors said their franchisees had unfilled job vacancies. The most challenging aspect, per 48 percent surveyed, is the pool of qualified candidates. Leadership at health and fitness brands said they’ve been particularly impacted, with 55 percent reporting it as the most significant challenge.”, Franchise Times, February 28, 2025

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“A New Pipeline: MUMBO is the word – Multi-unit operators and especially multi-unit, multi-brand operators (MUMBOs) can be crucial for the rapid expansion of your system. These operators possess the infrastructure and experience necessary to scale efficiently and effectively. Brands like Crumbl and 7 Brew Drive-thru Coffee achieved 100 operating units within three years, showing the benefits of aligning with capable franchisees.  A number of successful franchisees aren’t sticking within familiar industries. Many are diversifying, owning operations across food, healthcare, automotive, and retail services. For example, a Dunkin’ franchisee might own coffee shops as well as healthcare centers and schools, reflecting a sophisticated and diversified business model. A practice usually reserved for large investment groups is becoming common among franchisees with large or small portfolios.”, Franchising.com, March 2025

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries.   We do not get involved in or report on politics!

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William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global.  With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other.  He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ companies global.

To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here –  https://insider.edwardsglobal.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896

www.edwardsglobal.com