Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 133, Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Resilience is no longer a buzzword—it’s a board-level mandate

Commentary about the 133th Issue:  In global business today, resilience is no longer optional—it’s a required core competency for success in doing global business. Companies navigating international markets in 2025 are facing constant disruption: new U.S. tariffs are reshaping trade dynamics, geopolitical tensions are redrawing supply routes, and AI is transforming how we operate and compete. Amid this turbulence, adaptability has become the key currency of global success. Veteran international executives know that growth across borders has never followed a straight line. It requires a mindset grounded in anticipation, flexibility, and a deep understanding of local realities. 

Resilient organizations aren’t just prepared for shocks—they’re built to pivot with purpose. They localize intelligently, form durable partnerships, and continuously invest in forward-looking strategies that make them stronger over time. Resilience now lives at the core of every global playbook. It’s not a reaction—it’s readiness. And the companies that embed it deeply are those best positioned to lead with confidence in this new era we find ourselves in.

One More Thing…On another more interesting subject, this issue has several global AI references. And we learn that in the US, 67% of people who use AI are polite to it, while in the UK 71% are polite……

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But First……The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.  

PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.

Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896

Link to our current and past newsletters:  https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“In an era of volatility, the most resilient businesses aren’t the strongest—they’re the most adaptable.”, Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, IMF

AI isn’t replacing jobs—it’s replacing borders. The new workforce is global, digital, and 24/7.”, Tsedal Neeley, Harvard Business School, author of The Digital Mindset

“Resilience is no longer a buzzword—it’s a board-level mandate. Every global supply chain is being reimagined in real time.”, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General, World Trade Organization

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Highlights in issue #133:

Trade turmoil takes hold

Global growth forecast slashed by IMF over tariff impact

US Consumer Sentiment Plummets on Trump Trade War

China Has Accumulated 70% of the World’s AI Patents

Visualizing Global AI Investment by Country

How Top Economies Generated Electricity in 2024

Brand Global News Section: IHOP®, KFC® and Texas Roadhouse®

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“Global growth forecast slashed by IMF over tariff impact – The forecast for US economic growth for this year has been given the biggest downgrade among advanced economies by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) due to uncertainty caused by trade tariffs. Growth is now expected to be 1.8% this year, down from the IMF’s estimate of 2.7% for the US in January. The sharp increase in tariffs and uncertainty will lead to a “significant slowdown” in global growth, the Fund predicts. The IMF predicts the global economy will grow by 2.8% this year, down from its previous forecast of 3.3%, and by 3.0% in 2026.”, BBC, April 22, 2025

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“Trade turmoil takes hold – Uncertainty looms in the latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions, say Senior Partner Sven Smit and coauthors. Trade policy changes and geopolitical instability are now seen as the primary disruptors. Geopolitical risks have dominated survey respondents’ focus for the past three years, but concerns related to trade issues have surged and are now on par with geopolitics. In fact, over the past six months, the share of respondents citing trade-related changes as a major disruption to the global economy has more than doubled.”, McKinsey & Co., April 23, 2025

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“Here’s How Big the AI Revolution Really Is – OpenAI launched ChatGPT on Nov. 30, 2022, as a “low-key research preview.” In reality, it heralded the arrival of mainstream generative AI, the kind of artificial intelligence that creates and interprets text and images in an almost humanlike way. Google, Meta and other tech behemoths immediately shifted gears to focus on this new flavor of AI, and a boom was born. More than two years later, OpenAI still has the most popular product. This web-user data doesn’t even reflect people using ChatGPT on mobile apps, where it has a similar lead. But its competitors, including Google and China’s DeepSeek, are gaining their own audiences on the web—and in their respective apps.”, The Wall Street Journal, April 23, 2025

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“Are you polite to ChatGPT? Here’s where you rank among AI chatbot users – Most of us are nice, but some only out of fear. For some 12% of respondents to a new survey, it really is the case that they’re polite to AI because they fear the future consequences. That’s according to in-depth research conducted in December 2024 by Future, the publisher which owns TechRadar. The survey of more than 1,000 people found that while roughly 1 in 2 people use AI (51% of surveyed people in the US, and 45% in the UK), not everyone is kind to chatbots such as ChatGPT and their smart speakers. In the US, 67% of people who use AI are polite to it, while in the UK 71% are polite.”, Techradar, February 2, 2025

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“Visualizing Global AI Investment by Country – From 2013 to 2024, the U.S. has raised nearly half a trillion dollars in private investment for AI. The next three countries are China ($119B), the UK ($28B), and Canada & Israel ($15B each). Countries are investing heavily in artificial intelligence to position themselves for a future that could look significantly different from today. Greater investment in AI typically translates into stronger innovation ecosystems, which can attract top talent and fuel groundbreaking research that drives long-term economic growth.”, Visual Capitalist, April 21, 2025

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues

“Charting the Global Economy: US Dollar Slide Evocative of Nixon – The dollar is on pace for its worst performance during the first 100 days of a US presidency since Richard Nixon was in the White House as Donald Trump imposes tariffs and attempts to reshape global trade. Trump’s trade policy — aimed at rejuvenating domestic manufacturing, shoring up the industrial base and improving national security — has pushed investors into assets outside of the US. That’s led to a weakening in the greenback and lifted other currencies alongside gold. Meanwhile, data this week showed China remains dependent on foreign demand and South Korean exports to the US declined this month. Government forecasts pointed to a German economy that will struggle to expand this year.”, Bloomberg, April 26, 2025

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“Demand slump fuelled by Trump tariffs hits US ports and air freight  – Bookings plunge as importers hold off on shipping goods to America in hope of Beijing-Washington deal.  Logistics groups said container bookings to the US have fallen sharply since the introduction of 145 per cent tariffs on Chinese imports to the US. The Port of Los Angeles, the main route of entry for goods from China, expects scheduled arrivals in the week starting May 4 to be a third lower than a year before, while airfreight handlers have also reported sharp falls in bookings. Bookings for standard 20-foot shipping containers from China to the US were 45 per cent lower than a year earlier by mid-April, according to the latest available data from container tracking service Vizion.”, The Financial Times, April 27, 2025

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“Cocoa: The Global Trade of “Brown Gold” – Last year, a cocoa shortage drove up prices for European chocolate makers and consumers. This was largely due to an exceptionally wet rainy season as well as a viral cocoa disease that severely impacted the 2023/2024 harvest in West Africa. However, the situation is expected to improve this year, according to industry experts. In a note published at the end of February, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) estimated that the 2024/2025 harvest is expected to show a surplus, after three consecutive years of deficit…….global cocoa market relies heavily on harvests in the Gulf of Guinea for its supply. Nearly 65 percent ​​of the world’s cocoa is harvested in just four West African countries: Côte d’Ivoire (38 percent), Ghana (12 percent), Nigeria (7 percent), and Cameroon (7 percent). South America comes in a distant second place for volume, with Ecuador and Brazil as the main producing countries, accounting for 10 percent and 4 percent of global production, respectively.”, Visual Capitalist and International Cocoa Organization, April 18, 2025

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“Plastics are greener than they seem – Even if the world needs to become much better at managing their waste. In 2000 some 234m tonnes of plastic were produced. By 2021 annual production had roughly doubled, with the trade in plastics (and goods containing it) estimated to be worth $1.2trn each year. The production of plastics, which generally involves breaking down fossil fuels into their constituent hydrocarbon building blocks, such as ethylene and propylene, releases lots of carbon dioxide. The production and disposal of plastics is currently responsible for around 3.4% of the world’s annual greenhouse-gas emissions, more than the aviation industry’s 2.5%. Then there is what happens to the 350m tonnes that are thrown away each year. Possible health risks have generated a renewed focus on where much of the world’s plastic waste ends up and have led to a growing number of countries adopting ambitious recycling targets. The eu, for example, wants to recycle 55% of all plastic packaging by 2030. Yet only 9% or so of used plastic is ever turned into something else, up from 4% in 2000.”, The Economist, April 16.

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“How Top Economies Generated Electricity in 2024 – Fossil fuels made up nearly 60% of 2024 electricity generation. Coal accounts for 35% of total power generation. Global energy demand grew faster than average in 2024, driven by rising electricity use across sectors. The power sector led the surge, with demand growing nearly twice as fast as overall energy use—fueled by increased cooling needs, industrial activity, transport electrification, and the expansion of data centers and AI. Despite a growing push toward cleaner energy sources, coal remains the leading source of electricity generation worldwide. In 2024, fossil fuels accounted for nearly 60% of global power generation, with coal alone contributing 35%, according to the International Energy Agency.  While renewable energy continues to expand, making up about one-third of total electricity production, the global energy mix still leans heavily on traditional sources.”, IEA – Global Energy Review 2025, April 18, 2025

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Global & Regional Travel News

“Southwest Airlines drops forecast as US trade war shakes industry – Southwest Airlines became the latest U.S. carrier on Wednesday to withdraw its financial forecast as President Donald Trump’s trade war has created the biggest uncertainty for the industry since the COVID-19 pandemic. With little clarity on how consumers will behave in the face of a potentially worsening economy, airlines are struggling to accurately forecast their business. Alaska Air Group also pulled its 2025 profit forecast on Wednesday, citing the prevailing macroeconomic uncertainty. Earlier this month, Delta Air Lines and Frontier scrapped their forecasts. Last week, United Airlines gave two different forecasts, a highly unusual move, saying it was impossible to predict the macro environment this year.”, MSN, April 23, 2025

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Book Review

Our Dollar, Your Problem, By Kenneth Rogoff (2025) . In Our Dollar, Your Problem, Harvard economist and former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff delivers a compelling analysis of the U.S. dollar’s dominant role in the global economy and the internal challenges threatening its supremacy.Rogoff argues that the era of “Pax Dollar”—where the dollar serves as the world’s primary reserve currency—is under threat, not from external competitors like the euro or renminbi, but from within the United States itself. He highlights issues such as rising public debt, fiscal irresponsibility, and potential political interference in institutions like the Federal Reserve as key factors undermining global confidence in the dollar. The book provides historical insights spanning seven decades and warns that continued fiscal mismanagement could lead to a sudden loss of the dollar’s global standing, echoing Hemingway’s depiction of bankruptcy: gradually, then suddenly. 

Rogoff’s work is particularly relevant in light of recent U.S. tariff policies and their implications for international trade and financial stability. It serves as a crucial read for global business leaders seeking to understand the evolving dynamics of currency dominance and the importance of maintaining fiscal discipline to ensure economic resilience. ​Financial Times

Editor’s Note: This summary is from the book’s listing on Amazon.com. This past weekend this new book also hahd rfeviews in both the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal.

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Country & Regional Updates

China

“China Has Accumulated 70% of the World’s AI Patents – America’s share has fallen from roughly 40% in 2010, to 14% in 2023. In the U.S., AI patenting is largely concentrated among companies like IBM, Microsoft, and Google. In China, AI patenting is more distributed across tech firms (e.g. Baidu, Tencent), government organizations, and universities. Note that 2023 is the most recent year for which data is accessible. All figures were sourced from patent-level bibliographic records in PATSTAT Global, provided by the European Patent Office (EPO).”, Visual Capitalist, April 17, 2025

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India

“India’s Economy to Grow 6.5% Despite Global Swings, RBI Says – “While this rate is lower than in recent years and falls short of India’s aspirations, it remains broadly in line with past trends and the highest among major economies,” Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra said in a speech in Washington on Friday and posted on RBI’s website Sunday. The outlook for global growth has taken a beating as US President Donald Trump’s tariffs spark a global trade war. To support growth, the RBI cut interest rates in early April and changed its policy stance to accommodative, signaling more easing.”, Bloomberg, April 27, 2025

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United States

“Rubio unveils sweeping reorganization of State Department – The Trump administration’s proposed shake-up targets human rights programs and others focused on war crimes and democracy. The effort targets some human rights programs and others focused on war crimes and democracy, according to internal documents shared with The Washington Post. As part of the plan, senior officials would submit to department leadership a path to reduce U.S.-based staff by 15 percent, according to the documents, potentially affecting hundreds of jobs, though there would be no immediate layoffs. This plan includes the elimination of 132 offices and 700 positions, said a congressional aide who reviewed the documents. Many others would be transferred or “reorganized,” though such changes were not clearly explained — leaving questions about how the proposed shake-up would functionally alter things, the aide said.”, The Washington Post, April 22, 2025

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“US Consumer Sentiment Plummets on Trump Trade War –  As US President Donald Trump departed for Italy to attend the funeral of Pope Francis, the news at home for his administration was not good as the week came to an end. On the economic front, there is record fear among his constituents. US consumer sentiment fell to one of the lowest readings on record and long-term inflation expectations climbed to the highest since 1991 on worries over the domestic consequences from his tariffs. Economists see Trump’s policies, and in particular his global trade war, as making the chances of a self-induced recession a coin flip.”, Bloomberg, April 25, 2025

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Vietnam

“Tariff Threat Throws Vietnam’s Factories Into Race to Ship Goods – Vietnam furniture exporter Paul Yang is in a 90-day race. The vice president of a factory that makes indoor wood furnishings for the likes of Williams-Sonoma, Inc. and Crate & Barrel Holdings Inc. is being urged by American customers to ship “anything that’s ready” to them in the window of normalcy President Donald Trumpgranted before the risk of punishingly high levies hits Vietnamese products exported to the US. It may be the last opportunity to secure revenue from a customer base that buys goods equivalent to over a quarter of a $400 billion economy if the Southeast Asian country doesn’t secure a deal before Trump’s grace period ends. Nowhere is the perilous situation felt more deeply than in Vietnam’s southern industrial province Binh Duong. With almost half of the $34.5 billion of goods exported out of Binh Duong last year shipped to the US, the region is especially vulnerable to tariff shocks.”, Bloomberg, April 16, 2025

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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification

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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News

“New Reciprocal Tariffs Impact on Franchisors and Franchisees and Recommended Proactive Measures – The current tariff increases and volatility are creating challenges. In April 2025, President Trump implemented new “reciprocal” tariffs, introducing a 10% tariff on goods from most countries, and significantly higher rates for goods from countries with which the US has the largest trade deficits….As of April 9, there is a 90-day pause on the increase in reciprocal tariffs for all countries with reciprocal tariff rates above 10%, except for China. Many franchise-driven industries are impacted, including service-based brands and retail franchises.”, Franchising.com, April 24, 2025. 

Editor’s Note: This is a second article on the impact of tariffs on franchises by Joyce Mazero, co-chair of Polsinelli’s Global Franchise and Supply Network practice, Josh Goldberg, an associate in Polsinelli’s Global Franchise and Supply Network practice and Alissa Chase, an associate in Polsinelli’s International Trade practice group.

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“How AI is Revolutionizing Franchise Development: Smarter Sales for Responsible Growth – Imagine a franchise sales environment where every lead receives personalized attention, every follow-up is timely and relevant, and every sales process continually evolves based on real-time data insights. It might sound futuristic, but thanks to Artificial Intelligence (AI), this is already becoming a reality in franchise development.”, BrightFran, April 28, 2025. Compliments of The Franchise Consortium

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“Webinar provides a close look at NZ prospects for U.S. franchises -In a well-attended webinar held yesterday, organised by the U.S. Commercial Service and the International Trade Organisation, U.S.-based franchisors and suppliers to the sector were given a comprehensive overview of the New Zealand franchise market. Jonathan Watt of the U.S. Commercial Service gave an overview of the New Zealand franchise market, explaining firstly that the population of New Zealand is comparable to that of New York, Singapore, or Hong Kong, but spread across a land mass similar to the UK or Japan. Stewart Germann of Stewart Germann Law Office in New Zealand, and well-known to many attendees as a CFE-accredited IFA member, spoke next, covering a range of important legal considerations of bringing a franchise to New Zealand from the United States. Daniel Cloete, the National Franchise Manager for Westpac New Zealand spoke next, advising attendees that there are four main banks funding franchise businesses in New Zealand, along with several smaller finance companies, indicating a robust financial support system for franchises. Dr. Callum Floyd of Franchize Consultants explained the main functions of the Franchise Association of New Zealand (FANZ), a membership-based organisation established in 1996, including their important advocacy, research partnership and compliance roles and the events that help bring NZ franchising networks together every year.”, Franchise New Zealand magazine, April 24, 2025

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“The Chain Restaurant Charging You Nearly 100% More For Breakfast In 2025 – Budget-savvy readers are likely wondering about the dishes to avoid ordering at IHOP. The country-fried steak and eggs saw an individual raise of 95%, from $7.99 to $15.59. The sought-after 2x2x2 combo is now priced 129% higher at an eye-watering $12.59 rather than $5.49. Times are certainly changing. Even the humble milkshake couldn’t escape, with a 111% rise to $7.99.  Second in sky-high command? Texas Roadhouse was the runner-up, with a 46% increase in its menu prices. Admittedly, that’s considerably less than IHOP’s 82% — a colossal difference despite being in close quarters on the leaderboard.”, Tasting Table, April 28, 2025

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“5 Of The World’s Most Unique KFC Locations – Whether you’re exploring Egypt or find yourself on a road trip across the United States, you may want a familiar taste to keep you fueled during your adventures. We’ve rounded up a list of five KFC locations that offer some points of interest to consider while you sink your teeth into crispy chicken and refresh yourself with a cold beverage.”, The Tasting Table, April 25, 2025

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“Legal Impacts of the Economic Uncertainty Created by the Multiple Announcements of New Tariffs on the Quebec Franchise Sector – The current economic uncertainty, exacerbated by the new tariffs imposed by the U.S. Trump administration, poses major challenges in a wide range of sectors in Quebec, and the franchise sector is obviously no exception. This article explores the legal implications of this situation, focusing on the obligations of Quebec, Canadian and American franchisors, as well as the importance of sound trademark management by franchisors operating a network of Canadian franchises, and more specifically Quebec franchises, in these times of economic change.”, TCJ, March 31, 2025. Article compliments of Franchise New Zealand magazine.

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To receive our biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries.   We do not get involved in or report on politics!

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William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global.  With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other.  He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ companies global.

To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here –  https://insider.edwardsglobal.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896

www.edwardsglobal.com

Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 132, Tuesday, April 15, 2025

Uncertainty, Historic Market Rally, Tariff Chaos , CEO Confidence

Commentary for the 132nd issue: The quotes in this issue are all about the tariff and trade situation we find ourselves in today. In stunning U-turn, Trump walks back some tariffs, triggering historic market rally. Extreme’ US-China decoupling could cost US$2.5 trillion in equity, bond sell-off: Goldman. Companies Getting ‘A Bit Tired’ of Tariff Chaos, DHL CEO Says . Uncertainty returns CEO confidence to pre-election levels.

One More Thing: Ladies and Gentlemen, this is getting serious – China has ordered its airlines not to take any further deliveries of Boeing Co. jets or parts from the US as part of the tit-for-tat trade war that’s seen US President Donald Trump levy tariffs of as high as 145% on some Chinese goods.

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But First……The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.  

PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.

Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896

Link to our current and past newsletters:  https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“Tariffs will raise prices, slow growth, and increase recession risk.” – Jamie Dimon, CEO, JPMorgan Chase

“Most CEOs I speak with believe the U.S. is already in recession.” – Larry Fink, CEO, BlackRock

“We’re committed to keeping prices low during this turbulent time.” – Doug McMillon, CEO, Walmart

“Apple is accelerating India-made iPhone shipments to avoid tariff impacts.” – Tim Cook, CEO, Apple

“Tariffs raise prices, cut profits, and increase unemployment.” – David Kelly, Global Strategist, J.P. Morgan AM

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Highlights in issue #132:

In stunning U-turn, Trump walks back some tariffs, triggering historic market rally

Extreme’ US-China decoupling could cost US$2.5 trillion in equity, bond sell-off: Goldman

Companies Getting ‘A Bit Tired’ of Tariff Chaos, DHL CEO Says

China Orders Boeing Jet Delivery Halt as Trade War Expands

Why Europe is a Prime Destination for U.S. Restaurant Franchise Brands 

Uncertainty returns CEO confidence to pre-election levels [Q1 2025 CEO Index] 

Agentic AI: What It Is, How It Works, and Why It Matters

Brand Global News Section: Burger King®, McDonalds® and Tim Hortons®

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“Companies Getting ‘A Bit Tired’ of Tariff Chaos, DHL CEO Says – Fatigue is setting in among companies and manufacturers trying to navigate President Donald Trump’s whipsawing tariff moves, according to DHL Group Chief Executive Officer Tobias Meyer. Meyer, head of one of the world’s biggest logistics companies, warned companies and people are getting “a bit tired” with the constantly shifting announcements. ‘They don’t know, even if something is announced, whether two days later it’s not changed again,” Meyer said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “You really see some fatigue of decision makers in manufacturing and also in the distribution sector.’, Bloomberg, April 13, 2025

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‘From Anxious to Petrified’: Consumer Sentiment Plunges Further – The University of Michigan’s closely watched index hit its second-lowest reading on record, dragged down by fears of higher prices and unemployment. The University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index, released Friday, nosedived to 50.8 in April from 57 last month. Sentiment has been falling steadily throughout 2025. Expectations for inflation also hit the highest level in 44 years, according to the survey. Sentiment is now at its second-lowest level in history, according to the survey. It was slightly lower in June 2022, when inflation was soaring thanks to snarled supply chains and pandemic buying. Back in 2022, the index touched 50, which was the lowest reading on record going back to 1952. Sentiment declined for Democrats, Republicans and independents alike.”, The Wall Street Journal, April 11, 2025

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Agentic AI: What It Is, How It Works, and Why It Matters – Agentic AI isn’t exactly a new concept. Researchers have been digging into it for years. But over the past year, interest has really taken off, and it’s not just hype. According to Deloitte’s State of Generative AI in the Enterprise report, survey respondents identified agentic AI (52%) and multi-agent systems (45%), its more advanced form, as AI’s two most intriguing aspects today. Agentic AI is an advanced form of artificial intelligence designed to complete tasks with minimal human involvement. It addresses challenges in real time using AI agents — machine learning models that simulate human decision-making. In a multi-agent system, each of these agents takes a smaller task, and when they work together, they’re coordinated seamlessly to hit a larger goal. Traditional AI follows tight rules and requires human input, whereas agentic AI is more autonomous.”, From a LinkedIn post on April 14, 2025 by Neil Sahota, Chief Executive Officer ACSILabs Inc

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Uncertainty returns CEO confidence to pre-election levels [Q1 2025 CEO Index] – Uncertainty rules, much like it did through the recovery phase of a post-pandemic economy. The hopes and beliefs following the election for a pro-business tax and regulatory environment, along with stabilized inflation and interest rates and increased business activity, have been replaced by mounting concerns about economic instability. With this uncertainty comes a reversal in post-election optimism, as the Vistage CEO Confidence Index fell 22.1 points to 78.5 in Q1 2025. The dramatic quarter-over-quarter drop is historic on the surface, but in reality, it’s just a 6.6-point drop from the Q3 2024 reading of 85.1 and is still above levels recorded in 2022 and 2023.”, Vistage, April 7, 2025

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues

“Chaos at European ports as trade war leaves ships in limbo – Queues are building across UK and Europe amid tit-for-tat tariffs and plan to impose $1m fee on Chinese-made vessels docking in the US. Major ports across the UK and mainland Europe are clogging up as ships carrying goods between the US and China are left in limbo due to the trade war between the world’s largest two economies. Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs of 145 per cent on Chinese imports — and Beijing’s retaliatory taxes of 125 per cent — has sparked chaos among shipping operators as end-customers renege on orders. Hundreds of ships are queuing up to enter ports across Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and the UK, with industry executives now worried that the chaos could be just the start of serious disruption. US officials will this week unveil plans for a $1 million fee — up from between $20,000 and $50,000 — to be imposed on all Chinese-made vessels docking at American ports.”, The Times of London, April 13, 2025

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Book Review

The Storm Before the Calm: America’s Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond

The master geopolitical forecaster and New York Times bestselling author of The Next 100 Years focuses on the United States, predicting how the 2020s will bring dramatic upheaval and reshaping of American government, foreign policy, economics, and culture.

In his riveting new book, noted forecaster and bestselling author George Friedman turns to the future of the United States. Examining the clear cycles through which the United States has developed, upheaved, matured, and solidified, Friedman breaks down the coming years and decades in thrilling detail.   

American history must be viewed in cycles—particularly, an eighty-year “institutional cycle” that has defined us (there are three such examples—the Revolutionary War/founding, the Civil War, and World War II), and a fifty-year “socio-economic cycle” that has seen the formation of the industrial classes, baby boomers, and the middle classes. These two major cycles are both converging on the late 2020s—a time in which many of these foundations will change. The United States will have to endure upheaval and possible conflict, but also, ultimately, increased strength, stability, and power in the world. 

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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification

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Country & Regional Updates

Argentina

“How Milei made Argentina deserving of an IMF bail-out – He offers the only way out of a supremely difficult situation. Since December, when the imf’s last agreement with Argentina ran out, the country’s president has sought a fresh bail-out. Indeed, his efforts include an executive order to remove the need for Congress to approve the deal. Since its first bail-out in 1958, the country has become the fund’s most difficult customer, endlessly stacking up debts, which now come to $41bn (or 28% of all of the imf’s lending). Mr Milei’s first deal will be Argentina’s 23rd. As the fund contemplates just how much cash to hand over, the question is whether his vim can overcome the country’s spendthrift tendencies.”, The Economist, April 3, 2025

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Brazil

“Brazil’s Stagnant Economy Is the Poster Child for High Tariffs – While high tariffs protect some jobs in the country, they have also driven up costs for consumers and helped make domestic industry inefficient. Brazil’s World War II-era policy of protectionism has kept some jobs home but has also driven up costs for consumers and, according to economists, stifled competition and innovation. That iPhone 16 made in Brazil costs almost twice as much as a Chinese-made model sold in the U.S. for $799. The strategy has done little to boost Brazil’s industrial production. On the contrary, it has lowered productivity and led to some notorious price-fixing scandals, economists said. Manufacturing made up 36% of gross domestic product in 1985. Now it has fallen to about 14%, the worst example of “premature deindustrialization” in the world, according to the São Paulo-based Institute for the Study of Industrial Development. Growing at a little over 2% a year on average for the past two decades, Brazil never became the economic powerhouse its leaders once envisioned, limiting its influence on the world stage. Brazil’s labor productivity is about a quarter of that of the U.S., according to Our World in Data, a database compiled at the University of Oxford.”, The Wall Street Journal, April 12, 2025

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China

“China Orders Boeing Jet Delivery Halt as Trade War Expands – China has ordered its airlines not to take any further deliveries of Boeing Co. jets as part of the tit-for-tat trade war that’s seen US President Donald Trump levy tariffs of as high as 145% on Chinese goods, according to people familiar with the matter. Beijing has also asked that Chinese carriers halt any purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from US companies, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing matters that are private. The order came after China unveiled retaliatory tariffs of 125% on American goods this past weekend, the people said. Those levies on their own would have more than doubled the cost of US-made aircraft and parts, making it impractical for Chinese airlines to accept Boeing planes.”, Bloomberg, April 15, 2025 ============================================================================================

“UPS reinstates China-to-US fee — with no end date – The $0.29 per pound surcharge is returning April 13 as the two countries’ trade war continues to escalate. The parcel carrier did not list an end date for the “Surge Fee,” which has a rate that can be adjusted at any time. The fee applies to a shipment’s billable weight and is also subject to UPS’ fuel surcharge. UPS previously levied the Surge Fee from March 16-29. The company said with the added surcharge, it aims to continue satisfying shippers’ needs ‘without compromising on the quality or timeliness of service expected from us.”’ The surcharge’s return comes as supply chains attempt to navigate volatile trade relations between the U.S. and China, and heavy price hikes for goods traveling between the two countries.”, Supply Chain Dive, April 11, 2025 ============================================================================================== “‘Extreme’ US-China decoupling could cost US$2.5 trillion in equity, bond sell-off: Goldman – Threat of decoupling emerged after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said delisting of US-traded Chinese companies was back on the table. US investors could be forced to sell nearly US$800 billion of Chinese stocks trading on American exchanges in case of a decoupling, the US investment bank’s analysts led by Kinger Lau and Timothy Moe said in a report on Monday. On the flip side, China could liquidate its US Treasury and equity holdings amounting to US$1.3 trillion and US$370 billion, respectively. The sell-off was based on the assumption that US investors would be restricted by US regulations from such investments, they said.”, South China Morning Post, April 14, 2025

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India

“How India’s middle-class debt crisis is threatening growth – A rise in unsecured credit among a consumer group that symbolises the country’s investment potential is hurting its economic ambitions. ‘Everybody wants a laptop, everybody wants a TV, everybody wants a smartphone,’ says Anil Agarwal, the billionaire chair of Indian natural resources and energy conglomerate Vedanta. ‘They want a car, they want a scooter and their children to study in a good school — demand is tremendous.’ But a day of reckoning is fast approaching. Household debt has grown to about 43 per cent of GDP in June, from just over 35 per cent in March 2020, according to the latest RBI data. A crackdown in 2023 by the Reserve Bank of India, which warned retail lending was getting out of hand, has hit financial sector earnings just as many Indians are struggling to repay their loans.”, The Financial Times, April 13, 2025

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“India sees opportunity, as well as risk, in Trump’s trade war – Narendra Modi hopes to strike a deal that will unleash growth. On April 2nd Mr Trump unveiled “reciprocal” tariffs on America’s trade partners, including a 27% levy on Indian goods. In public, Indian officials sound upbeat. They suggest India can weather any short-term pain and quickly agree to a trade deal with America that would unleash growth. Some even compare it to 1991. But privately many worry that any deal would face fierce resistance at home. And a drawn-out trade war could jeopardise the ambitious economic and political agenda of the prime minister, Narendra Modi. India had tried to appease Mr Trump by reducing tariffs on goods including bourbon and motorbikes before Mr Modi visited Washington in February.”, The Economist, April 2, 2025

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Mexico

“Can Mexico make hay after avoiding the reciprocal-tariff tantrum?  It may struggle to do so. The United States is Mexico’s key trading partner, receiving more than 80% of Mexican exports—equivalent to just under 30% of Mexico’s gdp. This is a larger share than any other emerging market’s. Although Mexico is still vulnerable to Mr Trump’s fickle policymaking, for the time being it has an opportunity to seize. Today 49% of Mexican exports travel under the rules-of-origin requirements of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (usmca), and continue to enjoy tariff-free access. The rest is subject to a 25% tariff that Mr Trump announced in February.”, The Economist, April 10, 2025

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New Zealand

New Zealand

“New Zealand Central Bank Cuts Rates, Keeps Door Open to More – The central bank cut the official cash rate to 3.50% from 3.75%. New Zealand’s central bank has lowered interest rates, making it one of the first central banks to respond to the economic threats posed by the escalating trade war. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday brought its official cash rate to 3.50% from 3.75% and left the door open to further cuts “as the extent and effect of tariff policies become clearer.” It said the Trump administration’s trade policies could slow global growth soon. Will the U.S. follow suit? Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that the central bank doesn’t need to rush to lower rates, indicating that a cut isn’t on the table at its May meeting. He said the Fed would know more “as the months go by.”, The Wall Street Journal, April 9, 2025

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United Kingdom

“Britain is unusually well shielded from a tariff shock – Credit good luck more than diplomatic ingenuity. But as Donald Trump’s on-and-off-again tariff rodeo shakes the world economy, Britain has found itself in the rather unfamiliar position of being quite well insulated, and even in places poised to benefit from the turmoil. Certainly, any global slowdown would be bad news for an open and internationally exposed economy like Britain’s. But the direct hit from Mr Trump’s new tariffs is unlikely to be vast. Even before Mr Trump appeared to climb down on April 9th, offering a 90-day pause on tariffs above 10% to all countries except China, Britain had landed with the lowest 10% rate on most of its goods exports. Unlike every other economy of comparable size, though, the bulk of British exports are in services, which are not directly affected by the tariff conversation. America is Britain’s second-largest trading partner, after the European Union (eu), but two-thirds of that trade is in services, mostly in desk work like banking or law.”, The Economist, April 8, 2025

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United States

“In stunning U-turn, Trump walks back some tariffs, triggering historic market rally – Trump’s turnabout on Wednesday, which came less than 24 hours after steep new tariffs kicked in on most trading partners, followed the most intense episode of financial market volatility since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. The upheaval erased trillions of dollars from stock markets and led to an unsettling surge in U.S. government bond yields that appeared to catch Trump’s attention. Since returning to the White House in January, Trump has repeatedly threatened an array of punitive measures on trading partners, only to revoke some of them at the last minute. The on-again, off-again approach has baffled world leaders and spooked business executives, who say the uncertainty has made it difficult to forecast market conditions. The day’s events cast into stark relief the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies and how he and his team create and implement them.”, Reuters, April 9, 2025

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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades

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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News

“Why Europe is a Prime Destination for U.S. Restaurant Franchise Brands – The European market has become increasingly attractive to U.S.-based restaurant franchise brands, driven by diverse growth opportunities and consumer demand. With its blend of mature and emerging markets, rich culinary culture, and expanding urbanization, Europe offers a fertile ground for restaurant brands seeking to extend their global reach. Europe offers U.S. restaurant franchises a compelling combination of mature markets, high consumer demand, and strategic expansion opportunities. By leveraging strong franchise partnerships, adapting to cultural preferences, and strategically targeting both mature and emerging markets, American brands can achieve sustained success across the continent. However, to thrive in this complex environment, U.S. brands must prioritize local adaptation and long-term planning. With the right strategy, Europe can become a cornerstone of global growth for ambitious restaurant franchises.”, Franchising.com, April 2025. By Rebecca Viani is Partner with WhiteSpace Partners, a London-based firm, focused on the development and execution of market entry, franchise development, and acquisition strategies for restaurant brands expanding into Europe and the Middle East.

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‘Navigating International Franchising: Lessons from Expanding into the UK – Expanding a franchise into a new international market is both an exciting opportunity and a complex challenge. While the United Kingdom offers a promising landscape for franchise growth, its unique regulatory framework, consumer expectations, and business environment require a thoughtful and strategic approach. Expanding a franchise internationally, especially in a well-regulated and competitive market like the United Kingdom, requires patience, adaptability, and a strong strategy. Understanding local consumer behavior, navigating legal challenges, building a strong team, and utilizing franchise support systems are essential to a smooth and successful market entry. While every international expansion comes with its own set of hurdles, approaching the process with a clear plan and local expertise makes all the difference. With the proper foundation in place, franchising in the UK can be an incredibly rewarding endeavor that opens the door to long-term growth and sustainability.”, Franchising.com, April 2025, By Matias Puga H. is master franchise owner, School of Rock Latin America and School of Rock United Kingdom. 

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“Who’s the King now Trade Mark troubles in the Burger Kingdom? The long running legal battle between Burger King Corporation and a Pune-based eatery in the case of Anahita Irani & Anr. Vs. Burger King Corporation[1] raises important questions about trademark rights, territoriality, and the protection of local business interests. At the heart of the dispute is the use of the trade name Burger King, a mark registered in India by the multinational fast-food giant, but which has been used by the Pune restaurant since 1992, long before the company entered the Indian market. The case highlights tension between the global reach of multinational corporations and the rights of prior users of a trademark in a specific jurisdiction. The Pune restaurant had been using the words ‘Burger King’ since 1992 in India and the US-based Burger King Corporation, entered the Indian market in 2014. Burger king corporation had been using the mark and trade name ‘Burger King’ since 1954 and operated a worldwide chain of 13,000 fast food restaurants in more than 100 countries. Moreover, it had registered the mark in India in 1979.”, Chadha & Chadha Intellectual Property Law Firm from Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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“Tim Hortons launches retail coffee range in South Korea – Tim Hortons has launched its retail lineup in South Korea as part of its strategy to broaden the brand’s reach. ‘Like all Tim Hortons coffees, our bagged coffee retail products start with 100 per cent premium Arabica beans that are roasted with care and blended to perfection,’ said Mieka Burns, VP of consumer packaged goods at Tim Hortons. ‘Guests can already savour their favourite Tim Hortons beverages in restaurants and they can now complement that experience at home.’ Tim Hortons’ whole bean and fine grind coffee are available at the Lotte Mart grocery store in Gangdong Millennial Jungheung S-Class Complex, and will soon be available in department stores and online.  The Canadian coffee chain debuted in South Korea in 2023 and has quickly expanded to 16 locations.”, Inside Retail, April 11, 2025. Compliment of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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“McDonalds Philippines gears up for aggressive store expansion – McDonald’s Philippines is gearing up for a more aggressive store expansion, with plans to add 800 stores in its network before its new 20-year franchise term expires. Kenneth Yang, president and CEO of Golden Arches Development Corp. (GADC), also known as McDonald’s Philippines, said the company is looking to open more or less 65 new stores this year. ‘Most likely we should grow about the same as what we did last year which is 65 stores. Hopefully, we surpass it (this year), but most likely, it’s like that,’ he said. Yang said that McDonald’s Philippines’ upcoming expansion will not be primarily in the National Capital Region anymore.”, MSN, April 8, 2025. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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To receive our biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries.   We do not get involved in or report on politics!

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William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global.  With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other.  He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ companies global.

To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here –  https://insider.edwardsglobal.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896

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