Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 133, Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Resilience is no longer a buzzword—it’s a board-level mandate

Commentary about the 133th Issue:  In global business today, resilience is no longer optional—it’s a required core competency for success in doing global business. Companies navigating international markets in 2025 are facing constant disruption: new U.S. tariffs are reshaping trade dynamics, geopolitical tensions are redrawing supply routes, and AI is transforming how we operate and compete. Amid this turbulence, adaptability has become the key currency of global success. Veteran international executives know that growth across borders has never followed a straight line. It requires a mindset grounded in anticipation, flexibility, and a deep understanding of local realities. 

Resilient organizations aren’t just prepared for shocks—they’re built to pivot with purpose. They localize intelligently, form durable partnerships, and continuously invest in forward-looking strategies that make them stronger over time. Resilience now lives at the core of every global playbook. It’s not a reaction—it’s readiness. And the companies that embed it deeply are those best positioned to lead with confidence in this new era we find ourselves in.

One More Thing…On another more interesting subject, this issue has several global AI references. And we learn that in the US, 67% of people who use AI are polite to it, while in the UK 71% are polite……

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But First……The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.  

PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.

Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896

Link to our current and past newsletters:  https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“In an era of volatility, the most resilient businesses aren’t the strongest—they’re the most adaptable.”, Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, IMF

AI isn’t replacing jobs—it’s replacing borders. The new workforce is global, digital, and 24/7.”, Tsedal Neeley, Harvard Business School, author of The Digital Mindset

“Resilience is no longer a buzzword—it’s a board-level mandate. Every global supply chain is being reimagined in real time.”, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General, World Trade Organization

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Highlights in issue #133:

Trade turmoil takes hold

Global growth forecast slashed by IMF over tariff impact

US Consumer Sentiment Plummets on Trump Trade War

China Has Accumulated 70% of the World’s AI Patents

Visualizing Global AI Investment by Country

How Top Economies Generated Electricity in 2024

Brand Global News Section: IHOP®, KFC® and Texas Roadhouse®

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“Global growth forecast slashed by IMF over tariff impact – The forecast for US economic growth for this year has been given the biggest downgrade among advanced economies by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) due to uncertainty caused by trade tariffs. Growth is now expected to be 1.8% this year, down from the IMF’s estimate of 2.7% for the US in January. The sharp increase in tariffs and uncertainty will lead to a “significant slowdown” in global growth, the Fund predicts. The IMF predicts the global economy will grow by 2.8% this year, down from its previous forecast of 3.3%, and by 3.0% in 2026.”, BBC, April 22, 2025

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“Trade turmoil takes hold – Uncertainty looms in the latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions, say Senior Partner Sven Smit and coauthors. Trade policy changes and geopolitical instability are now seen as the primary disruptors. Geopolitical risks have dominated survey respondents’ focus for the past three years, but concerns related to trade issues have surged and are now on par with geopolitics. In fact, over the past six months, the share of respondents citing trade-related changes as a major disruption to the global economy has more than doubled.”, McKinsey & Co., April 23, 2025

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“Here’s How Big the AI Revolution Really Is – OpenAI launched ChatGPT on Nov. 30, 2022, as a “low-key research preview.” In reality, it heralded the arrival of mainstream generative AI, the kind of artificial intelligence that creates and interprets text and images in an almost humanlike way. Google, Meta and other tech behemoths immediately shifted gears to focus on this new flavor of AI, and a boom was born. More than two years later, OpenAI still has the most popular product. This web-user data doesn’t even reflect people using ChatGPT on mobile apps, where it has a similar lead. But its competitors, including Google and China’s DeepSeek, are gaining their own audiences on the web—and in their respective apps.”, The Wall Street Journal, April 23, 2025

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“Are you polite to ChatGPT? Here’s where you rank among AI chatbot users – Most of us are nice, but some only out of fear. For some 12% of respondents to a new survey, it really is the case that they’re polite to AI because they fear the future consequences. That’s according to in-depth research conducted in December 2024 by Future, the publisher which owns TechRadar. The survey of more than 1,000 people found that while roughly 1 in 2 people use AI (51% of surveyed people in the US, and 45% in the UK), not everyone is kind to chatbots such as ChatGPT and their smart speakers. In the US, 67% of people who use AI are polite to it, while in the UK 71% are polite.”, Techradar, February 2, 2025

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“Visualizing Global AI Investment by Country – From 2013 to 2024, the U.S. has raised nearly half a trillion dollars in private investment for AI. The next three countries are China ($119B), the UK ($28B), and Canada & Israel ($15B each). Countries are investing heavily in artificial intelligence to position themselves for a future that could look significantly different from today. Greater investment in AI typically translates into stronger innovation ecosystems, which can attract top talent and fuel groundbreaking research that drives long-term economic growth.”, Visual Capitalist, April 21, 2025

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues

“Charting the Global Economy: US Dollar Slide Evocative of Nixon – The dollar is on pace for its worst performance during the first 100 days of a US presidency since Richard Nixon was in the White House as Donald Trump imposes tariffs and attempts to reshape global trade. Trump’s trade policy — aimed at rejuvenating domestic manufacturing, shoring up the industrial base and improving national security — has pushed investors into assets outside of the US. That’s led to a weakening in the greenback and lifted other currencies alongside gold. Meanwhile, data this week showed China remains dependent on foreign demand and South Korean exports to the US declined this month. Government forecasts pointed to a German economy that will struggle to expand this year.”, Bloomberg, April 26, 2025

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“Demand slump fuelled by Trump tariffs hits US ports and air freight  – Bookings plunge as importers hold off on shipping goods to America in hope of Beijing-Washington deal.  Logistics groups said container bookings to the US have fallen sharply since the introduction of 145 per cent tariffs on Chinese imports to the US. The Port of Los Angeles, the main route of entry for goods from China, expects scheduled arrivals in the week starting May 4 to be a third lower than a year before, while airfreight handlers have also reported sharp falls in bookings. Bookings for standard 20-foot shipping containers from China to the US were 45 per cent lower than a year earlier by mid-April, according to the latest available data from container tracking service Vizion.”, The Financial Times, April 27, 2025

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“Cocoa: The Global Trade of “Brown Gold” – Last year, a cocoa shortage drove up prices for European chocolate makers and consumers. This was largely due to an exceptionally wet rainy season as well as a viral cocoa disease that severely impacted the 2023/2024 harvest in West Africa. However, the situation is expected to improve this year, according to industry experts. In a note published at the end of February, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) estimated that the 2024/2025 harvest is expected to show a surplus, after three consecutive years of deficit…….global cocoa market relies heavily on harvests in the Gulf of Guinea for its supply. Nearly 65 percent ​​of the world’s cocoa is harvested in just four West African countries: Côte d’Ivoire (38 percent), Ghana (12 percent), Nigeria (7 percent), and Cameroon (7 percent). South America comes in a distant second place for volume, with Ecuador and Brazil as the main producing countries, accounting for 10 percent and 4 percent of global production, respectively.”, Visual Capitalist and International Cocoa Organization, April 18, 2025

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“Plastics are greener than they seem – Even if the world needs to become much better at managing their waste. In 2000 some 234m tonnes of plastic were produced. By 2021 annual production had roughly doubled, with the trade in plastics (and goods containing it) estimated to be worth $1.2trn each year. The production of plastics, which generally involves breaking down fossil fuels into their constituent hydrocarbon building blocks, such as ethylene and propylene, releases lots of carbon dioxide. The production and disposal of plastics is currently responsible for around 3.4% of the world’s annual greenhouse-gas emissions, more than the aviation industry’s 2.5%. Then there is what happens to the 350m tonnes that are thrown away each year. Possible health risks have generated a renewed focus on where much of the world’s plastic waste ends up and have led to a growing number of countries adopting ambitious recycling targets. The eu, for example, wants to recycle 55% of all plastic packaging by 2030. Yet only 9% or so of used plastic is ever turned into something else, up from 4% in 2000.”, The Economist, April 16.

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“How Top Economies Generated Electricity in 2024 – Fossil fuels made up nearly 60% of 2024 electricity generation. Coal accounts for 35% of total power generation. Global energy demand grew faster than average in 2024, driven by rising electricity use across sectors. The power sector led the surge, with demand growing nearly twice as fast as overall energy use—fueled by increased cooling needs, industrial activity, transport electrification, and the expansion of data centers and AI. Despite a growing push toward cleaner energy sources, coal remains the leading source of electricity generation worldwide. In 2024, fossil fuels accounted for nearly 60% of global power generation, with coal alone contributing 35%, according to the International Energy Agency.  While renewable energy continues to expand, making up about one-third of total electricity production, the global energy mix still leans heavily on traditional sources.”, IEA – Global Energy Review 2025, April 18, 2025

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Global & Regional Travel News

“Southwest Airlines drops forecast as US trade war shakes industry – Southwest Airlines became the latest U.S. carrier on Wednesday to withdraw its financial forecast as President Donald Trump’s trade war has created the biggest uncertainty for the industry since the COVID-19 pandemic. With little clarity on how consumers will behave in the face of a potentially worsening economy, airlines are struggling to accurately forecast their business. Alaska Air Group also pulled its 2025 profit forecast on Wednesday, citing the prevailing macroeconomic uncertainty. Earlier this month, Delta Air Lines and Frontier scrapped their forecasts. Last week, United Airlines gave two different forecasts, a highly unusual move, saying it was impossible to predict the macro environment this year.”, MSN, April 23, 2025

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Book Review

Our Dollar, Your Problem, By Kenneth Rogoff (2025) . In Our Dollar, Your Problem, Harvard economist and former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff delivers a compelling analysis of the U.S. dollar’s dominant role in the global economy and the internal challenges threatening its supremacy.Rogoff argues that the era of “Pax Dollar”—where the dollar serves as the world’s primary reserve currency—is under threat, not from external competitors like the euro or renminbi, but from within the United States itself. He highlights issues such as rising public debt, fiscal irresponsibility, and potential political interference in institutions like the Federal Reserve as key factors undermining global confidence in the dollar. The book provides historical insights spanning seven decades and warns that continued fiscal mismanagement could lead to a sudden loss of the dollar’s global standing, echoing Hemingway’s depiction of bankruptcy: gradually, then suddenly. 

Rogoff’s work is particularly relevant in light of recent U.S. tariff policies and their implications for international trade and financial stability. It serves as a crucial read for global business leaders seeking to understand the evolving dynamics of currency dominance and the importance of maintaining fiscal discipline to ensure economic resilience. ​Financial Times

Editor’s Note: This summary is from the book’s listing on Amazon.com. This past weekend this new book also hahd rfeviews in both the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal.

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Country & Regional Updates

China

“China Has Accumulated 70% of the World’s AI Patents – America’s share has fallen from roughly 40% in 2010, to 14% in 2023. In the U.S., AI patenting is largely concentrated among companies like IBM, Microsoft, and Google. In China, AI patenting is more distributed across tech firms (e.g. Baidu, Tencent), government organizations, and universities. Note that 2023 is the most recent year for which data is accessible. All figures were sourced from patent-level bibliographic records in PATSTAT Global, provided by the European Patent Office (EPO).”, Visual Capitalist, April 17, 2025

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India

“India’s Economy to Grow 6.5% Despite Global Swings, RBI Says – “While this rate is lower than in recent years and falls short of India’s aspirations, it remains broadly in line with past trends and the highest among major economies,” Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra said in a speech in Washington on Friday and posted on RBI’s website Sunday. The outlook for global growth has taken a beating as US President Donald Trump’s tariffs spark a global trade war. To support growth, the RBI cut interest rates in early April and changed its policy stance to accommodative, signaling more easing.”, Bloomberg, April 27, 2025

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United States

“Rubio unveils sweeping reorganization of State Department – The Trump administration’s proposed shake-up targets human rights programs and others focused on war crimes and democracy. The effort targets some human rights programs and others focused on war crimes and democracy, according to internal documents shared with The Washington Post. As part of the plan, senior officials would submit to department leadership a path to reduce U.S.-based staff by 15 percent, according to the documents, potentially affecting hundreds of jobs, though there would be no immediate layoffs. This plan includes the elimination of 132 offices and 700 positions, said a congressional aide who reviewed the documents. Many others would be transferred or “reorganized,” though such changes were not clearly explained — leaving questions about how the proposed shake-up would functionally alter things, the aide said.”, The Washington Post, April 22, 2025

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“US Consumer Sentiment Plummets on Trump Trade War –  As US President Donald Trump departed for Italy to attend the funeral of Pope Francis, the news at home for his administration was not good as the week came to an end. On the economic front, there is record fear among his constituents. US consumer sentiment fell to one of the lowest readings on record and long-term inflation expectations climbed to the highest since 1991 on worries over the domestic consequences from his tariffs. Economists see Trump’s policies, and in particular his global trade war, as making the chances of a self-induced recession a coin flip.”, Bloomberg, April 25, 2025

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Vietnam

“Tariff Threat Throws Vietnam’s Factories Into Race to Ship Goods – Vietnam furniture exporter Paul Yang is in a 90-day race. The vice president of a factory that makes indoor wood furnishings for the likes of Williams-Sonoma, Inc. and Crate & Barrel Holdings Inc. is being urged by American customers to ship “anything that’s ready” to them in the window of normalcy President Donald Trumpgranted before the risk of punishingly high levies hits Vietnamese products exported to the US. It may be the last opportunity to secure revenue from a customer base that buys goods equivalent to over a quarter of a $400 billion economy if the Southeast Asian country doesn’t secure a deal before Trump’s grace period ends. Nowhere is the perilous situation felt more deeply than in Vietnam’s southern industrial province Binh Duong. With almost half of the $34.5 billion of goods exported out of Binh Duong last year shipped to the US, the region is especially vulnerable to tariff shocks.”, Bloomberg, April 16, 2025

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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification

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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News

“New Reciprocal Tariffs Impact on Franchisors and Franchisees and Recommended Proactive Measures – The current tariff increases and volatility are creating challenges. In April 2025, President Trump implemented new “reciprocal” tariffs, introducing a 10% tariff on goods from most countries, and significantly higher rates for goods from countries with which the US has the largest trade deficits….As of April 9, there is a 90-day pause on the increase in reciprocal tariffs for all countries with reciprocal tariff rates above 10%, except for China. Many franchise-driven industries are impacted, including service-based brands and retail franchises.”, Franchising.com, April 24, 2025. 

Editor’s Note: This is a second article on the impact of tariffs on franchises by Joyce Mazero, co-chair of Polsinelli’s Global Franchise and Supply Network practice, Josh Goldberg, an associate in Polsinelli’s Global Franchise and Supply Network practice and Alissa Chase, an associate in Polsinelli’s International Trade practice group.

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“How AI is Revolutionizing Franchise Development: Smarter Sales for Responsible Growth – Imagine a franchise sales environment where every lead receives personalized attention, every follow-up is timely and relevant, and every sales process continually evolves based on real-time data insights. It might sound futuristic, but thanks to Artificial Intelligence (AI), this is already becoming a reality in franchise development.”, BrightFran, April 28, 2025. Compliments of The Franchise Consortium

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“Webinar provides a close look at NZ prospects for U.S. franchises -In a well-attended webinar held yesterday, organised by the U.S. Commercial Service and the International Trade Organisation, U.S.-based franchisors and suppliers to the sector were given a comprehensive overview of the New Zealand franchise market. Jonathan Watt of the U.S. Commercial Service gave an overview of the New Zealand franchise market, explaining firstly that the population of New Zealand is comparable to that of New York, Singapore, or Hong Kong, but spread across a land mass similar to the UK or Japan. Stewart Germann of Stewart Germann Law Office in New Zealand, and well-known to many attendees as a CFE-accredited IFA member, spoke next, covering a range of important legal considerations of bringing a franchise to New Zealand from the United States. Daniel Cloete, the National Franchise Manager for Westpac New Zealand spoke next, advising attendees that there are four main banks funding franchise businesses in New Zealand, along with several smaller finance companies, indicating a robust financial support system for franchises. Dr. Callum Floyd of Franchize Consultants explained the main functions of the Franchise Association of New Zealand (FANZ), a membership-based organisation established in 1996, including their important advocacy, research partnership and compliance roles and the events that help bring NZ franchising networks together every year.”, Franchise New Zealand magazine, April 24, 2025

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“The Chain Restaurant Charging You Nearly 100% More For Breakfast In 2025 – Budget-savvy readers are likely wondering about the dishes to avoid ordering at IHOP. The country-fried steak and eggs saw an individual raise of 95%, from $7.99 to $15.59. The sought-after 2x2x2 combo is now priced 129% higher at an eye-watering $12.59 rather than $5.49. Times are certainly changing. Even the humble milkshake couldn’t escape, with a 111% rise to $7.99.  Second in sky-high command? Texas Roadhouse was the runner-up, with a 46% increase in its menu prices. Admittedly, that’s considerably less than IHOP’s 82% — a colossal difference despite being in close quarters on the leaderboard.”, Tasting Table, April 28, 2025

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“5 Of The World’s Most Unique KFC Locations – Whether you’re exploring Egypt or find yourself on a road trip across the United States, you may want a familiar taste to keep you fueled during your adventures. We’ve rounded up a list of five KFC locations that offer some points of interest to consider while you sink your teeth into crispy chicken and refresh yourself with a cold beverage.”, The Tasting Table, April 25, 2025

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“Legal Impacts of the Economic Uncertainty Created by the Multiple Announcements of New Tariffs on the Quebec Franchise Sector – The current economic uncertainty, exacerbated by the new tariffs imposed by the U.S. Trump administration, poses major challenges in a wide range of sectors in Quebec, and the franchise sector is obviously no exception. This article explores the legal implications of this situation, focusing on the obligations of Quebec, Canadian and American franchisors, as well as the importance of sound trademark management by franchisors operating a network of Canadian franchises, and more specifically Quebec franchises, in these times of economic change.”, TCJ, March 31, 2025. Article compliments of Franchise New Zealand magazine.

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries.   We do not get involved in or report on politics!

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William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global.  With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other.  He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ companies global.

To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here –  https://insider.edwardsglobal.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896

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