Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 135, Tuesday, May 27, 2025
“Making predictions is hard to do, especially about the future.”,
Commentary about the 135th Issue: The global business landscape is more unpredictable than ever—tariffs come and go, regional conflicts disrupt supply chains, populist regimes change the rules overnight, and doing business in China gets trickier by the day. It’s tough to know what’s coming next. But here’s the thing—we don’t have to be perfect forecasters. What matters more is how quickly we can adapt. Flexibility, diversification, and staying informed give us a fighting chance in a world full of surprises. The goal isn’t to guess right every time, but to be ready to pivot when the ground shifts. Yogi had a funny way of saying it, but he was right—these days, smart business means being ready for anything.
One More Thing… Join us on May 28th at the Beall Center for Innovation and Entrepreneurship on the campus of the University of California, Irvine for an evening filled with very timely world-class keynote speakers, engaging panel discussions, and unparalleled business-to-business networking opportunities related to global trade, trade policy and even tariffs at the 11th Annual Orange County World Trade Week Forum Event.
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But First……The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.
PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896
Link to our current and past newsletters: https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.”, Sun Tzu
“No nation was ever ruined by trade.”, Benjamin Franklin
“Trade creates bridges where politics builds walls.”, Anonymous
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Highlights in issue #135:
Visualizing the World’s Shadow Economies
The World’s Largest Economies, Including U.S. States
What AI Means for the Future of Accounting Jobs
What It’s Like to Travel in China Right Now—And How to Do It
Will consumers pay more for EVs?
Supremacy: AI, ChatGPT, and the Race That Will Change the World.
Brand Global News Section: McDonalds® and Slim Chickens®
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MAY 28TH SPECIAL EVENT ANNOUNCEMENT
Join us tomorrow, May 28th at the Beall Center for Innovation and Entrepreneurship on the campus of the University of California, Irvine for an evening filled with very timely world-class keynote speakers, engaging panel discussions, and unparalleled business-to-business networking opportunities at 11th Annual Orange County World Trade Week Forum Event. This is your chance to connect with key trade organizations, international business groups, the diplomatic corps, academics and to earn about the extensive global resources available in Southern California.
Presented by the District Export Council of Southern California and supported by key partners such as the Greater Irvine Chamber of Commerce, The Ports Of Los Angeles and Long Beach and the U.S. Commercial Service, this gathering is essential for those in Southern California ready to embrace the future of international trade.
There is still time to register for this Wednesday, May 28th event at this link: bit.ly/OCWTC2025
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“The World’s Largest Economies, Including U.S. States – California passed Japan to become the fourth-largest economy in 2024, new data from the BEA reveals. Nine U.S. states feature in the world’s 30 largest economies as measured by their 2024 GDP. It’s in the name really. The United States of America began as a union of separate entities coming together. And while the U.S. is seen as a single global economic and political hegemon today, many of its 50 states are major economies on their own. To show just how big they are, we’ve mapped and ranked 30 of the world’s largest economies, including U.S. states, to see how they stack up against entire countries.”, Bureau of Economic Analysis(BEA) and International Monetary Fund (IMF), May 16, 2025
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“Visualizing the World’s Shadow Economies – Globally, the shadow economy is estimated to equal 11.3% of GDP based on analysis of 131 countries from Ernst and Young. In the U.S., the shadow economy is estimated to be valued at $1.4 trillion, or 5% of GDP. Meanwhile, the underground economy is valued at more than half of GDP in Sierra Leone, Niger, and Nepal. Shadow economies are highly prevalent. The shadow economy, which includes unreported and untaxed business activities, drug trafficking, and other illegal activities generates trillions annually in revenue. On average, the shadow economy is equal to 42.4% of GDP in low-income countries, with the highest concentration in Africa.”, EY Global Shadow Economy Report 2025 and the IMF, May 14, 2025
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““Will consumers pay more for EVs? Despite the ongoing increase in market share for electric vehicles (EVs), sales growth has slowed in many regions after years of rapid expansion. Consumer behavior is one important piece of the EV adoption puzzle, say Senior Partner Philipp Kampshoff and coauthors. Our annual mobility survey revealed that the price difference between comparable internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and battery electric vehicles (BEV) factors into purchasing decisions. In Europe and the United States, only about a third of respondents say they would accept a BEV premium.”, McKinsey & Co., May 22, 2025
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“AI Needs More Abundant Power Supplies to Keep Driving Economic Growth – Artificial intelligence is an emerging source of productivity and economic growth that’s also reshaping employment and investment. AI has the potentialto raise the average pace of annual global economic growth according to scenarios in our recent analysis, included in the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook. AI, however, needs more and more electricity for the data centers that make it possible. The resulting strain on power grids has major implications for global electricity demand. The world’s data centers consumed as much as 500 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2023, according to the most recent full-year estimate by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. That total, which was more than double the annual levels from 2015-19, could triple to 1,500 terawatt-hours by 2030, OPEC projects. As this Chart of the Week shows, electricity used by data centers alone, already as much as that of Germany or France, would by 2030 be comparable to that of India, third world’s largest electricity user. This would also leapfrog over the projected consumption by electric vehicles, using 1.5 times as much power than EVs by the decade’s end.”, Visual Capitalist & International Energy Agency, May 18, 2025
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“What AI Means for the Future of Accounting Jobs – New AI tools are redefining the future of accounting jobs. Learn how upskilling, adaptability, and human judgment define what comes next. Based on the Intuit QuickBooks poll, 98% of American bookkeepers and accountants used artificial intelligence (AI) in the last year. Consistent with other industry developments, AI usage increased from 37% to 58% among finance leaders between 2023 and 2024. Among those not yet using it, half reported active preparations for implementation. According to Thomson Reuters, support for generative AI increased from 52% to 71%in tax-focused firms. These shifts point to more than technology adoption. As AI becomes part of daily work, accounting roles are evolving. With automation handling routine processes, professionals are moving into more strategic, client-facing responsibilities. Still, communication, decision-making, and creative thinking continue to shape the value accountants bring to their teams and clients.”, Neil Sahota, Substack, May 20, 2025
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“The 90-Day Rush to Get Goods Out of China – American and Chinese firms are racing to clear a backlog of orders during a pause in trade war hostilities. Sky-high tariffs pummeled U.S.-China trade and now the cease-fire is causing a snapback. Firms across the U.S. are racing to rebook canceled orders and find space on containerships to get products out of China and bring them stateside before the 90-day window closes in August. Shipping executives in Asia say one headache for importers is there aren’t enough ships available to move goods to the U.S. right away. Carriers diverted some of the vessels that would usually ship goods to the U.S. West Coast from China to other busy routes when tariffs slammed U.S.-China trade. Some carriers replaced their biggest containerships with smaller vessels, while others canceled some scheduled sailings altogether, shipping executives say.”, The Wall Street Journal, May 25, 2025
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“China Resumes Rare Earth Exports Under Tight Controls as Global Prices Soar – Chinese rare earth magnet producers are gradually resuming overseas shipments under a new export license regime, after Beijing tightened controls on mid-to-heavy rare earth exports in April — sending shockwaves through global supply chains and driving up prices in Europe and the United States. Three leading Chinese rare earth magnet companies confirmed to Caixin that they had recently received export licenses from the Ministry of Commerce, enabling them to resume shipments to customers in Europe and North America. The approvals fall under China’s “one batch, one license” rule, requiring separate permits for each shipment due to varying metal content.”, Caixin Global, May 15, 2025
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“EU Takes Swing at Making a Deal With Trump – The European Union has shared a revised trade proposal with the US as it aims to inject momentum in talks with President Donald Trump’s administration amid lingering skepticism that a transatlantic deal can be reached. The new offer is said to include proposals that take into account US interests, including international labor rights, environmental standards, economic security and gradually reducing tariffs to zero on both sides for non-sensitive agricultural products as well as industrial goods. The 27-nation bloc has put together plans to hit $108 billion of US exports with additional tariffs in response to Trump’s “reciprocal” levies and 25% tariffs on cars and some auto parts. The EU agreed earlier this month to delay for 90 days the implementation of a separate set of retaliatory tariffs against the US over 25% duties Trump imposed on the bloc’s steel and aluminum exports. That move came after Trump lowered his so-called reciprocal rate on most EU exports to 10% from 20% for the same amount of time.”, Bloomberg, May 21, 2025
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“Trump’s assault on the global dollar – The difficulty is that, however unsatisfactory the hegemon might be, the alternatives look worse. Is the dominance of the dollar about to fade away? Donald Trump insists that “if we lost the dollar as the world currency . . . that would be the equivalent of losing a war”. Yet he himself could be the cause of such a loss. Reliance on a foreign currency depends on trust in its own soundness and liquidity. Trust in the dollar has been slowly eroding for a while. Now, under Trump, the US has become erratic, indifferent and even hostile: why would one trust a country that has launched a trade war on allies? The dollar has been the world’s leading currency for a century. Yet the dollar itself replaced the pound sterling after the first world war, as the UK’s power and wealth declined. Given the rise of China’s economy during that period, this is remarkable. The US also remains at the frontier of world technological development and the foremost military power. Its financial markets are still much the deepest and most liquid. Moreover, in the fourth quarter of last year, 58 per cent of global reserves were in dollars, down from 71 per cent in the first quarter of 1999, but far ahead of the euro’s 20 per cent.”, The Financial Times, May 20, 2025
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Global & Regional Travel News
“What It’s Like to Travel in China Right Now—And How to Do It – Less stringent visa policies and a flurry of new hotels are strong incentives for U.S. travelers to visit the country. Here’s what to know. For years, the country has been an enigma and a challenge for travelers. It’s a vast, deeply historic nation where ancient traditions fuse with hyperfast modernization and where language barriers, digital restrictions, and visa policies often deter casual tourists. But times are changing, and despite its complex global reputation, China has once again opened its doors with newly relaxed entry requirements and a slew of new hotels. In the past two years, China has made drastic changes to its visa policies, and visiting as a tourist has become easier than ever before. A recently extended visa waiver program allows nationals from 38 countries, including Ireland, Australia, Germany, and Japan, to enter China without a visa for up to 30 days. American citizens face fewer hurdles too. Last December, China extended its visa-free transit policy and now allows visitors with a U.S. passport (or passports from one of the other 53 eligible countries) to stay in China for up to 10 days.”, AFAR, May 22, 2025
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“Crypto travelers bring 3x greater lifetime value than fiat users – Crypto travelers tend to have higher spending per transaction, greater loyalty and more frequent bookings. Travelers using cryptocurrency for booking arrangements spend more than twice as much as regular travelers using fiat money, according to a joint report from Binance Pay and crypto travel platform Travala shared with Cointelegraph. Crypto-based bookings on Travala reached $80 million in 2024, up from $45 million the year before. Crypto travelers are also outspending their fiat counterparts, with an average booking value of $1,211 per transaction, over 2.5 times more than fiat users who spend $469. Additionally, the report said crypto users were three times more valuable over their lifetime due to longer stays and higher repeat bookings, with crypto travelers 57% more likely to make a repeat hotel purchase.”, Cointelegraph, May 22, 2025
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Book Review
Supremacy: AI, ChatGPT, and the Race That Will Change the World. Parmy Olson’s Supremacy offers a compelling narrative on the intense competition between OpenAI and DeepMind, two leading entities in the artificial intelligence (AI) arena. The book delves into the personal and professional journeys of Sam Altman and Demis Hassabis, highlighting their ambitions to develop artificial general intelligence (AGI) and the ethical dilemmas they encounter. Olson sheds light on how initial altruistic goals often clash with commercial pressures, leading to compromises that shape the trajectory of AI development.
For global business leaders, Supremacy serves as a critical examination of how technological innovation intersects with corporate strategy, ethics, and governance. It underscores the importance of understanding the broader implications of AI advancements on society and the global economy.
Key Takeaways for Global Businesspeople:
1. AI’s Dual Impact: AI holds the potential for both groundbreaking advancements and significant societal disruptions.
2. Ethical Considerations: The pursuit of AI supremacy often involves ethical compromises, necessitating vigilant oversight.
3. Corporate Influence: Large tech corporations play a pivotal role in steering AI development, raising concerns about monopolistic practices.
4. Global Regulation: There’s an urgent need for international regulatory frameworks to ensure responsible AI deployment.
5. Strategic Adaptation: Businesses must adapt to the evolving AI landscape, balancing innovation with ethical responsibility.
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Country & Regional Updates
China
“A Shrinking China Scrambles for a New Economic Model – A declining, aging population is a poor foundation for consumption-driven growth. China is shifting from an export- and investment-driven economy to one based on domestic consumption. The reason is persistent economic stagnation and a growing risk that the country will fall short of its growth targets. In the past, China could rely on its large and steadily growing population as a foundation for economic advancement, but now its population is aging and shrinking rapidly. A full transition to a consumption-based model appears out of reach for now, partly due to the demographic decline.”, Geopolitical Futures, May 14, 2025
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South Korea
“Navigating Norms and Expectations in the Korean Workplace – Navigating Korean workplace norms can be challenging for executives and teams around the world, as expectations often differ across cultures, writes Don Southerton. Steering Korean workplace norms and expectations can be challenging for the executives and teams worldwide, as workplace norms differ. Long-time global teams have observed Korean groups significantly adopt Western business norms, reducing the dispatch of expats, although a few divisions still adhere to the old model. What stands out is the shift from embedding expat operational teams with divisions acquired through M&A to forming partnerships.”, Branding In Asia, May 22, 2025
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United Kingdom
“An eccentric set of one-offs has knocked inflation up in Britain – Troublingly, the public no longer thinks inflation will keep falling. Annual headline inflation rose from 2.6% in March to 3.5%, blowing past forecasters’ expectations of a 3.3% rise. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose to 3.8%. Water and energy bills, as well as vehicle-excise duty, a car tax, explain nearly all of the increase.”, The Economist, May 22, 2025
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“Why developers are snapping up billions of pounds worth of unwanted offices – Over £3.4 billion worth of UK office space has been purchased for conversion in three years. But what’s driving this unexpected surge in repurposing? These offices, which are usually older and require expensive renovations, have been converted into everything from hotels and flats to laboratories and student halls. Developers’ plans vary by location, depending on what types of property are most in-need in the local area. In most cities — including Bristol, Glasgow and Leeds — residential is the dominant alternative use type, but in Cambridge, Oxford and London, where there is an acute shortage of life sciences space, there is the greatest proportion of offices being converted into laboratories.”, The Times of London, May 25, 2025
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United States
“The 15 U.S. Fast Food Chain Restaurants That Make The Most Money Annually – Fast food chains feed America cheap snacks and beverages that go down easily. It’s woven into the cultural food landscape, encompassing a massive ecosystem of franchises and loyal customers. Here, we dug through the data to compile our list of the 15 top-selling chains in the country per their 2024 revenue. According to Stock Analysis, revenue is “the amount of money a company receives from its business activities, such as sales of products or services….[revenue] does not take any expenses into account and is therefore different from profits.” The information we leveraged is publicly available — typically intended for shareholders — where we parsed the data for specifics on U.S. divisions of these companies since many are often globally scaled.”, Chowhound, May 24, 2025
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“Gen Z is actually the most enthusiastic generation about working in the office and are there 3 days a week – Gen Z is leading the charge in return-to-office, with an average in-person commitment of three days a week, according to recent survey findings from property group JLL. The company surveyed more than 12,000 workers around the world and found Gen Z is the generation that sees the most value in in-person work. Gen Z workers get a bad rap for being lazy and not wanting to go to the office, while in fact, many of them do want to see their coworkers in person. Contrary to popular belief, Gen Z—people who were born between 1997 and 2012—is actually leading the charge in return-to-office, according to a late March report by property group JLL shared with Fortune. JLL found workers under 24 years old are more likely to be in office than other generations and come in an average of 3 days a week.”, Fortune, May 3, 2025
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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification
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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News
“McDonald’s plans to hire 375,000 U.S. workers this summer – McDonald’s said Monday it plans to hire up to 375,000 U.S. restaurant employees this summer, its biggest hiring push in years. The Chicago burger giant said the beefed-up job openings at both company-owned and franchised stores are partly due to a U.S. expansion. The company, which has more than 13,500 restaurants in the U.S., plans to open 900 more by 2027. Its decision to staff up for this summer signals optimism that U.S. restaurant traffic will improve as the year unfolds.”, AP News, May 12, 2025
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“A Fast-Growing Chicken Chain Uses AI in Quest to Become a Household Name – Slim Chickens’ new chief marketing officer wants to play up its made-to-order Southern food with technology—and a music studio. If you haven’t heard of Slim Chickens, it is Patrick Noone’s job to make sure that changes. Noone this year became chief marketing officer at the Fayetteville, Ark.-based chain, which has opened about 300 restaurants, up from around 100 in 2020, with 1,000 more in development globally. Slim Chickens, which opened its first location in 2003, sells buttermilk-brined, hand-breaded chicken tenderloin sandwiches and other Southern fare. Noone previously led a brand transformation at Checkers & Rally’s and held marketing roles at Noodles& Company, Krispy Kreme and Domino’s Pizza.”, Wall Street Journal, May 14, 2025
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“So You Want to Take Your Restaurant(s) Oversees – A Six Part Series – Expanding your restaurant internationally is more than a growth strategy—it’s a major leap that tests every part of your business, from operations and supply chains to culture, finance, and of course, law. It’s easy to get swept up in the excitement of new markets and emerging culinary scenes, but international expansion is not just about translating your brand into a new language or replicating your menu abroad. It’s about understanding and complying with a new legal ecosystem, managing risk, structuring your business intelligently, and ensuring your intellectual property survives the journey intact.”, Lexology, May 19, 2025
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“Survey: 1 in 5 Small Businesses May Not Survive 2025 – A new report from Alignable in collaboration with Harvard Business School and MIT researchers reveals a dramatic surge in small business anxiety as the U.S. trade war continues. ‘Business owners are incredibly resourceful, but tariffs are creating more intense cost pressures and deeper uncertainty with each passing month,’ said Eric Groves, Alignable’s co-founder and CEO. ‘With half of small business owners now expecting sales to decline, it’s a clear signal that we need to act together. One of the most effective ways to push through this turbulence is by leaning on your community and tapping into your most trusted relationships.’ Drawn from 2,392 survey responses collected from April 9 to 24 and 13,000-plus earlier responses this year, the report highlights growing distress even among businesses without direct trade exposure.”, Franchising.com, May 14, 2025
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“Franchise Supply Chains Under Pressure: How to Stay Ahead of Tariff Fallout – Currently, the business world is abuzz with discussions about the tariffs recently imposed by the Trump administration. Targeting not only hostile countries but also some of the United States’ closest neighbors and trade allies, these tariffs are having a significant impact on businesses and franchises across the nation, both economically and operationally. Unfortunately, virtually no business is immune to the effects of these tariffs, including franchises. In the US, several restaurant chains have already raised their prices, passing on the costs of the tariffs to their customers. Although franchises might be tempted to hold out in the hopes that the situation will improve, the outlook is not encouraging that the tariff situation will be resolved anytime soon. One of the most obvious ways franchises will feel the impact of tariffs is in sourcing their ingredients, as many restaurant franchises obtain ingredients, produce, and meat from other countries.”, Franchising.com, May 20, 2025
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“Starbucks 1 Billion China Shake Up Major Deal Talks Brewing Behind the Scenes – Starbucks is makingquiet moves behind the scenes and they could reshape its future in China. The company has reached out to private equity firms, tech giants, and other strategic players to test interest in its China business, according to people familiar with the talks. While nothing’s locked in, insiders say a partial stake sale is on the table, potentially valuing the business in the billions. Conversations are still early, but investors are expected to send in feedback soon. The company hasn’t committed to any deal just yet but when a global brand starts taking meetings like this, you know the playbook is shifting. This comes as Starbucks faces intense pressure in what used to be one of its brightest growth stories. China is still its second-largest market, but local champions like Luckin Coffee and Cotti Coffee are moving fast and grabbing wallets. Luckin raked in $1.2 billion in revenue last quarter, outpacing Starbucks’ $740 million haul in the same region. With more than 7,750 stores across China and a 25% stock drop since February, Starbucks is under the gun to prove it still has room to run and that may require fresh capital, new partners, or both.”, Yahoo Finance, May 15, 2025. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
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William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ companies global.
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For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
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