Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 13, Tuesday, June 10, 2025
“In the midst of every crisis, lies great opportunity.”, Albert Einstein
Welcome to Issue #136 of the Global Business Update – As we hit the midpoint of 2025, the global economy is sending mixed—and at times, conflicting—signals. In this issue, we cover everything from rising gold prices to sinking tourist numbers, from trade skirmishes to surprising growth pockets.
The global economy sputters as new tariffs return under Trump, intensifying trade tensions now hitting on three fronts. We’re seeing ripple effects: jobs at the Port of Los Angeles are down by half, international tourist arrivals to the U.S. continue to decline, and tariffs are already making dolls more expensive for American families. Yet, in a twist, AmCham reports no polled U.S. firms in China are planning to reshore to the USA.
Meanwhile, China generated more electricity in 2024 than the U.S., EU, and India combined, and Starbucks is cutting prices in China as competition grows. Vietnam emerges as a high-growth market, while Canada pushes for faster project approvals and freer trade. Europe quietly doubles its growth pace, attracting investor attention.
This issue also features a deep dive into life expectancy by country, a timely look at The Art of Uncertainty, and what America’s Pizza Economy says about the real one. But despite the tariff challenges, Freddies® is opening its first restaurant in Canada!
One More Thing… In this month’s book, The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck, global strategist and philosopher Dennis Shirshikov challenges conventional views on control and prediction in business. This thought-provoking book argues that embracing uncertainty—not avoiding it—is the most powerful way to succeed in today’s complex and volatile global environment.
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But First……The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.
PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896
Link to our current and past newsletters: https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“Uncertainty is the new norm. Leaders must rely on their ‘muscle memory’—past experience and foundational knowledge—to navigate challenges like trade policy shifts, fluctuating markets, AI integration, and evolving workforce dynamics.”, Janet Truncale – Global Chair & CEO, Ernst & Young (EY)
“Never to let one’s self be beaten down by persons or by events.”, Marie Curie
“Commitment is what transforms a promise into reality.”, Abraham Lincoln
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Highlights in issue #136:
How Long People Live, by Country
Global Economy Sputters as Trump Inks New Tariff
Plunge in Overseas Demand Hits China Manufacturing, Caixin PMI Shows
Jobs at the Port of Los Angeles are down by half, executive director says
Fewer international tourists are visiting the U.S.
What America’s Pizza Economy Is Telling Us About the Real One
Euro Economies Doubling Growth Grabs Investor Attention –
Brand Global News Section: Dave’s Hot Chicken®, Freddies®, Little Cesars® and Starbucks®
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, April 2025 – Markets fluctuate but return to early April levels; first-quarter US GDP data indicates consumer spending and investment growth despite 0.3% contraction, while China and Europe outpace expectations. Persistent high consumer prices and elevated levels of uncertainty continue to affect households, leading to low levels of overall consumer confidence in the US and beyond. Despite the uncertainty, leading indicators were above long-term trends across the main economies during March. Economies are continuing to reduce interest rates, except Russia and Brazil, which have been raising rates to combat high inflation.”, McKinsey & Co., May 29, 2025
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“Global Economy Sputters as Trump Inks New Tariff – Despite promised blowback from Europe, Donald Trump formally raised steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% from 25% on Tuesday. The move by the president raises trade tensions at a time when the US is locked in negotiations with numerous trading partners over his so-called “reciprocal” duties before a July 9 deadline. While those tariffs have been deemed by US courts to likely be illegal, they remain in place as litigation over them proceeds. The steel levies aren’t implicated by the rulings.”, Bloomberg, June 3, 2025
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“A New Era for the Global Economy – Established economic and trade rules are being eroded, without a clear replacement emerging. Over the past two decades, the global economy has endured significant shocks – most notably the 2008 financial crisis and the economic fallout from pandemic-related lockdowns. These events severely hindered real GDP growth. Despite these disruptions, the primary indicator of economic activity has remained resilient. Growth rebounded quickly after the pandemic, surpassing 3 percent for many countries. Still, the IMF expresses caution. It does not expect strong economic growth to continue into the coming year, although it does forecast positive growth overall. Ongoing instability – especially in trade relationships and global conflicts – poses serious risks. These factors threaten supply chains and the flow of goods, shifting economic risks to the downside. For example, new tariffs imposed by the United States, along with retaliatory measures by its trading partners, prompted the IMF to lower its global growth forecast in the January 2025 World Economic Outlook update to 2.8 percent for the year.”, Geopolitical Futures, May 28, 2025
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“How Long People Live, by Country – How long you live depends a lot on where you’re born. For example, Western European countries have an 80+ life expectancy at birth. However, several African countries have a below 60 life expectancy, a lifespan that is a full 20 years shorter. Parts of already Africa battle a perfect storm of difficult living conditions: poor nutrition, not enough clean water, and violence. However, the biggest difference between life expectancies of Africans and residents of high-income regions are for those before the age of 5 and after 60.”, Visual Capitalist and UN World Population Prospects 2024, May 22, 2025
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“China Generated More Electricity in 2024 Than the U.S., EU, & India Combined – China generated over 10,000 TWh (terawatt-hour) of electricity in 2024. That’s more than the combined output of the U.S., EU, and India—the next three biggest producers.”, Our World In Data, June 1, 2025
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“Why central banks are playing a big role in pushing up gold prices – Governments are buying up gold as they see it as a safe investment – and, in some cases, a tool for evading Western sanctions. Gold prices have surged this year as investors seek safe investments amid a spike in economic uncertainty unleashed by US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Countries are increasingly experimenting with creating gold-backed digital assets and trading systems that bypass the dollar-denominated financial system, according to an article by Kimberly Donovan and Maia Nikoladze of the Atlantic Council’s Economic Statecraft Initiative published earlier this month.”, South China Morning Post, May 27, 2025
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Global & Regional Travel News
“Travel advisor survey shows bookings decline, but not across the board – A majority of travel advisors say that bookings are down this year compared to last, with the economy, consumer confidence and price sensitivity all playing roles. A Travel Weekly survey fielded last month found that 27.8% of respondents reported a significant decrease in bookings so far in 2025, while 29.9% reported a slight decrease. That adds up to 57.7% who are reporting some kind of decrease. Ten percent reported no change in bookings, 18.5% reported a slight increase, and 12.8% reported a significant increase.”, Travel Weekly, June 2, 2025
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“Fewer international tourists are visiting the U.S. — economic losses could be ‘staggering,’ researchers estimate. Spending among international visitors to the U.S. is poised to fall $8.5 billion this year, according to Oxford Economics. Tourists are avoiding the U.S. as a destination amid tensions tied to Trump administration policy related to trade and the border, experts said. A relatively strong dollar and weak global growth prospects are also playing a role, they said. Spending from foreign visitors to the U.S. is poised to fall by $8.5 billion this year as negative perceptions tied to trade and immigration policy lead overseas tourists to look elsewhere, according to a research note published by Oxford Economics. The spending decline, which works out to a drop of about 5% relative to last year, is a result of less foot traffic. International arrivals to the U.S. are expected to fall about 9% this year, Aran Ryan, director of industry studies at Tourism Economics, part of Oxford Economics, wrote in a research note last week.”, CNBC, May 28, 2025
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Book Review
In The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck, global strategist and philosopher Dennis Shirshikov challenges conventional views on control and prediction in business. This thought-provoking book argues that embracing uncertainty—not avoiding it—is the most powerful way to succeed in today’s complex and volatile global environment. For professionals in international business, Shirshikov’s insights are particularly resonant.
Through compelling case studies and psychological insights, the book explores how successful decision-makers don’t eliminate risk; instead, they learn to work with randomness, incomplete information, and ambiguity. This mindset is essential in international markets, where variables such as cultural nuance, regulatory shifts, economic volatility, and geopolitical tension can disrupt even the most well-planned strategies.
Shirshikov emphasizes agility, scenario thinking, and the use of probabilistic models to guide choices—not for perfect forecasts, but to build resilience and adaptability. His discussion of “productive ignorance” is especially valuable for global business leaders, reminding us that humility and curiosity often yield better long-term outcomes than false confidence.
Ultimately, The Art of Uncertainty offers a compelling toolkit for thriving amid global ambiguity. For entrepreneurs, executives, and strategists operating across borders, this book is not only timely—it’s indispensable.
5 Key Takeaways for International Businesspeople
1. Embrace Uncertainty as a Strategic Asset: Use uncertainty to identify opportunities and drive innovation in unpredictable markets.
2. Make Decisions with Incomplete Information: Take action using probabilities and patterns, essential for navigating new territories.
3. Leverage “Productive Ignorance”: Recognize gaps in knowledge to ask better questions and build stronger local partnerships.
4. Design Flexible, Resilient Strategies: Use scenario planning and optionality to adapt to shifting global conditions.
5. Differentiate Luck from Skill: Understand the role of timing and luck to remain humble and prepared for change.
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Country & Regional Updates
Africa
“Africa’s gen AI potential – Africa has embraced gen AI with remarkable speed, and its institutions are quickly catching up with and in some instances leading global developments. However, the continent’s progress so far with both gen AI and AI more broadly is only the tip of the iceberg, say Partner Mayowa Kuyoro and coauthors. Gen AI adoption varies widely by sector, with digitally mature sectors such as technology, telecommunications, and financial services leading the way. The authors estimate that at-scale deployment of gen AI could lead to $61 billion to $103 billion of additional economic value across Africa.”, McKinsey & Co., May 29, 2025
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Canada
“Geography has made us neighbors. History has made us friends. Economics has made us partners. And necessity has made us allies”., President Kennedy, Ottawa in 1961.
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“Canada Introduces Bill to Speed Up Project Approval, Dismantle Trade Barriers – Officials say removing internal trade barriers and expediting approval of major infrastructure and resource projects would help maximize Canada’s economic potential. Canada introduced legislation on Friday that aims to accelerate approval of resource and infrastructure projects, and knock down internal trade barriers that analysts estimate cost the domestic economy tens of billions of dollars in growth. As for internal trade barriers, this marks the federal government’s boldest effort yet to get the country’s 10 provinces and three territories to mutually recognize their rules and regulations. For instance, provinces have different rules regarding how long truckers can work, and minimum energy efficiency requirements in appliances like washing machines. Wine made in one province can’t be directly sold to customers in another. Further, labor mobility is hampered as provinces have differing rules on who is qualified to work in the trades.”, The Wall Street Journal, June 6, 2025
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China
“Plunge in Overseas Demand Hits China Manufacturing, Caixin PMI Shows – China’s manufacturing shrank in May at the fastest pace since September 2022, with overseas demand falling at a quicker pace, a Caixin-sponsored survey showed Tuesday. The Caixin China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which gives an independent snapshot of the country’s manufacturing sector, came in at 48.3, down from 50.4 in April. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in activity, while a number below that signals a contraction. The Caixin PMI is one of the earliest available monthly indicators of activity in the world’s second-largest economy. Manufacturing accounted for around 26% of China’s GDP in the first quarter, according to government data.”, Caixin Global, June 3, 2025
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“China Tariffs Already Mean Fewer, More Expensive Dolls for American Kids – Toy makers are raising prices and are cautious about producing more amid uncertainty over tariff levels. Trump’s tariffs on China are hurting U.S. toy makers, who face higher costs and reduced assortment. A federal trade court ruling on tariffs was put on hold, adding to uncertainty for businesses. Smaller toy makers struggle to fulfill orders as Chinese factories prioritize larger customers. Trump’s China tariffs have been hurting low-margin industries such as toy makers, where companies say there are few alternatives to raising prices. As a result, these businesses expect American shoppers to face a smaller assortment of goods this Christmas—and at a higher cost.”, Wall Street Journal, June 7, 2025
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“No polled US firms in China shifting production back to US, AmCham survey finds – ‘Instead, they are localising operations or shifting some production to third countries,’ the American Chamber of Commerce says after poll of 112 member companies in China. “Tariffs are an added challenge for our member companies at a time when operating in China is already becoming more complex,” said Alvin Liu, AmCham China chair. Despite the challenges, however, most companies are not planning to exit China, the survey found. None report shifting production back to the US.”, South China Morning Post, June 6, 2025. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
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European Union & The Euro Zone
“Trump’s Trade Fight Now a War on Three Fronts – The European Union is preparing for another round of trade talks with the US, but it’s also warning that it may speed up retaliatory measures if President Donald Trump follows through on his latest threat: a 50% levy on steel and aluminum imports. The European Commission, which handles trade matters for the EU, said Monday it “strongly” regrets the tariff hike—up from an originally planned 25%—and said the move is undermining efforts to reach a solution to the trade conflict.”, Bloomberg, June 2, 2025
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“Euro Economies Doubling Growth Grabs Investor Attention – Eurozone economies led by Ireland and Germany expanded twice as much as previously reported to begin the year, with exports surging in anticipation of US tariffs. Eurostat’s upward revision to 0.6% growth caught most economists by surprise and capture a currency union that’s so far proving resilient. For all the Sturm und Drang hurled by the Trump administration, Europe’s macro-economic picture still shows light on the horizon. Private equity investors have a new-found love for Germany and are prowling for deals. Defense technology stocks are booming as investors pour into meeting EU security requirements. The reassessment of European fortunes takes place as jitters spread among investors eyeing what’s taking place on the other side of the Atlantic. The US has ceased to be a secure destination because of risks stemming from Trump’s tax and spending bills, according to the chief economist at French asset manager Carmignac.”, Bloomberg, June 6, 2025
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Middle East
“Etiquette Is Not Fluff: It is Strategy in the Gulf Market – When Western companies think about business expansion into the Gulf, their minds often jump straight to legal structures, market size, product fit, and perhaps even localisation. And yes, they are important. But one area often dangerously overlooked is this: Etiquette! Not as a nice-to-have. Not as an afterthought. Not to be googled as quick fix. But as a strategic imperative.
In the Gulf region — comprising countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman — Etiquette is not just about saying the right thing or offering the correct greeting. It’s about showing respect, building trust, and signalling that you understand the invisible rules of the game. If you don’t understand these rules, you are not just being seen as impolite. You are being seen as untrustworthy, incompetent, or simply not ready for serious business.”, Star Kat – Middle East Sunday Pages, May 25, 2025. Compliments of Corina Goetz
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United States
“Jobs at the Port of Los Angeles are down by half, executive director says – Job opportunities at the Port of Los Angeles are dwindling as President Trump’s steep tariffs take a hit on global trade and a major economic engine for the regional economy. Nearly half of the longshoremen who support operations at the port went without work over the last two weeks, Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, said in an interview. The port processed 25% less cargo than forecast for the month of May, he said.”, The Los Angeles Times, June 7, 2025
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“How big trade deficit drop as tariffs hit imports is playing out inside U.S. supply chain and economy – The U.S. trade deficit has plunged as imports surged and then plummeted as a result of President Trump’s trade war and tariffs. The impact of rapid global economic shifts can be seen in the supply chain activity across the U.S., from warehouses to freight orders and inventory. The data points to greater pain for small businesses. The U.S. trade deficit fell by the largest amount on record in April as imports fell by over 16% after a surge in orders to beat President Trump’s tariffs, but there’s a worrying flip side for the consumer. As the trade war whipsaws global economic activity, supply chain data shows that the retail inventory crunch could be next and small business across the country are bearing the brunt of the pain. From freight orders to inventory and warehousing, the latest logistics data shows the inability of many importers to make business decisions related to inventory levels.”, CNBC, June 5, 2025
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Vietnam
“Vietnam: a high-growth market going cheap – It has been 50 years since Vietnam was reunited after a 25-year war that devastated the country………..in the late 1980s, the government performed a sharp U-turn and turned Vietnam into a very capitalist country under autocratic rule. Since then, GDP per capita has risen from $270 a year to $4,300 in an economy that has grown from $6.3 billion to $430 billion, notes Tod Davis of brokers Deutsche Numis. Wider signs of social progress are equally impressive: the population has increased from 44 million to 100 million, male life expectancy at birth has risen from 61 to 75, literacy has risen from 57% to 96%, and the poverty rate has fallen from 78% to around 3%. With the economy growing at 6% per annum, ‘Vietnam is likely to become a high income nation similar to Taiwan and South Korea, with a GDP per capita of $12,500 within 20 years’, says Brook Taylor, chief executive of VinaCapital. The threat of tariffs is the current worry (America’s trade deficit with Vietnam is its third-largest), but this may be exaggerated. VinaCapital expects the US to settle for a 20% tariff in the end, probably with a high-tech exemption. This would reduce GDP growth from 7% to about 6% for 2025.”, Money Week, June 6, 2025
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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification
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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News
“Starbucks to cut prices in China – Consumer businesses under pressure from weaker economic backdrop and intense competition. Starbucks will cut the prices of several iced and tea-based drinks in China, as the coffee chain grapples with heated competition in its second-biggest market. The Seattle-based company said in a social media post on Monday it would reduce the prices of products, including tea lattes and frappucinos, by an average of Rmb5, taking the price of certain drinks to Rmb23 ($3.20). Businesses in Chinese consumer sectors from cars to food and beverage have been under pressure to lower prices amid a weaker economic backdrop and intense competition.”, The Financial Times, June 9, 2025
Editor’s Note: The Shanghai price is the same as it is in Southern California!!
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Roark Capital Investment Adds Sizzle to Dave’s Hot Chicken’s Explosive Growth Plans –With the private equity firm now a majority owner, the fast casual plans to become a worldwide sensation, with 155-165 stores opening this year. Dave’s Hot Chicken president Jim Bitticks remembers visiting restaurants five years ago and asking cofounder Dave Kopushyan what he thinks the brand will be someday. His answer? ‘We won’t sell until it’s a billion.’ Dave’s, founded in 2017 by childhood friends Kopushyan, Arman Oganesyan, and Tommy Rubenyan, started with $900 and a parking lot pop-up in East Hollywood. The brand became an instant sensation, and a couple of years later, it brought on Phelps—the former CEO of Wetzel’s Pretzels and Blaze Pizza—to begin franchising.
Since then, Dave’s has grown swiftly. After opening roughly 80 stores each in 2023 and 2024, the plan is to open 155 to 165 locations this year and around the same in 2026. The fast casual is working through a pipeline of over 1,000 franchise locations across the U.S., the Middle East, and Canada.”, QSR Magazine, June 2, 2025
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“What America’s Pizza Economy Is Telling Us About the Real One – Higher-end pies are still selling, but for lower-income consumers even frozen pizza is becoming a luxury. For the longest time, pizza has been the go-to dinner order for anyone looking to feed a family fast and on the cheap. What’s often touted as America’s favorite food took on another attribute during the pandemic: safe. Domino’s Pizza Inc., the largest of the delivery chains, and its smaller rival Papa John’s International Inc. each registered double-digit year-over-year same-store sales increases in the US and North America, respectively, in 2020, helped by Covid-19 lockdowns. Four years on, though, it looks as if low-income consumers are being priced out of pizza. Those same-store sales were down at all three pizza chains in the first quarter of 2025, declining 5% at Pizza Hut, 2.7% at Papa John’s and 0.5% at Domino’s. Domino’s did have one metric to celebrate, at least: Takeout ticked up 1%, because, as Chief Financial Officer Sandeep Reddy explained in an earnings call, it costs less than delivery.”, Bloomberg, June 6, 2025
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“Little Caesars makes India debut with NCR outlet plan – Harnessing Harvest to lead franchise push. Little Caesars, the world’s third-largest pizza chain by global presence, is set to enter India this month by opening its first outlet in the Delhi-NCR region, the company said on Friday. This will be the brand’s 30th global market. The Detroit-based brand, known for its ‘hot-n-ready’ pizzas and Crazy Bread, has partnered with Harnessing Harvest as its India franchisee. ‘Launching in India marks an exciting milestone for Little Caesars as we expand into our 30th country,’ said Paula Vissing, President, Global Retail at Little Caesars Pizza, in a statement. The company’s foray into India is part of a wider global expansion that recently included markets like Cambodia and Kuwait, PTI reported.”, The Times Of India, June 7, 2025
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“Freddy’s to open first Canadian restaurant – The Winnipeg unit is the first outside the U.S. for the growing burger chain, which is building out a significant store pipeline. The fast-growing burger brand is developing its Canadian footprint through a master franchise agreement with North 49 Frozen Custard and Steakburgers, and the first unit has been in the works for some time. Freddy’s has grown rapidly since its 2021 acquisition by Thompson Street Capital, according to its franchise disclosure document. In 2022, the brand said it was targeting a total unit count of about 1,000.”, Restaurant Dive, June 2, 2025
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
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William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ companies global.
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