Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 137, Tuesday, June 24, 2025

“Think global, act local.”, Patrick Geddes

Welcome to Edition #137 of the Edwards Biweekly Global Business Update, your trusted biweekly briefing on the complex and fast-moving developments shaping global trade, investment, and franchising. This edition provides curated insights across several sectors—from energy strategy shifts in Canada to etiquette nuances in the Gulf—and is designed to help executives anticipate risks and spot new global opportunities.

This issue captures a world in continuing flux. The OECD has revised its inflation forecasts upward for 2025 and 2026, highlighting how persistent trade barriers and geopolitical instability are reshaping economic expectations. At the same time, global unemployment trends paint a mixed picture—some nations are hitting record lows, while others like Spain are now struggling with double-digit jobless rates.

In the realm of global aid, major donor countries are pulling back. With official development assistance projected to drop by up to $60 billion, there’s growing concern over the future of global health, education, and infrastructure initiatives. Meanwhile, cities once known for stability—like Vienna—have seen their reputations shaken, underscoring how safety and security increasingly influence global livability and business decisions.

Trade and tourism are also under pressure. President Trump’s second-term policies, including new travel bans and protectionist tariffs, may have wiped out $12.5 billion in U.S. tourism revenue this year and triggered retaliatory moves in regions like Southeast Asia. Meanwhile the biggest companies across America are cutting their workforces.

On the franchise front, innovation continues. From Yum China’s rollout of an AI assistant for KFC store managers to U.S. Congressional recognition of June 11 as the first-ever World Franchise Day, we see both technological and political forces validating the growing relevance and success of the franchise model worldwide. And some casual-dining franchise chains are staging a comeback.

In this issue’s book, Marketcrafters: The 100-Year Struggle to Shape the American Economy, Chris Hughes, Co-Founder of Facebook, presents a compelling historical narrative that challenges the myth of the “free market” as a natural phenomenon. Instead, he argues that markets are deliberately created and continuously shaped by policymakers, economists, and corporate interests—a process he calls “marketcraft.” Covering a century of U.S. economic history, from New Deal reforms to Big Tech’s modern dominance, Hughes reveals how intentional rule-making has defined winners and losers in the American economy.

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But First……The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.  

PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.

Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896

Link to our current and past newsletters:  https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“Choose lazy people to do difficult jobs, they always find ways to do it easily.”, Bill Gates

“The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.”, Eleanor Roosevelt

“We must ensure that the global market is embedded in broadly shared values and practices that reflect global social needs, and that all the world’s people share the benefits of globalization.”, Kofi Annan

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Highlights in issue #137:

Global Inflation Projections in 2025 and 2026

How Much it Costs to Make 100 T-Shirts

Yum China is testing an AI assistant for store managers

Unemployment Rates in OECD Countries in 2025

How Weight-Loss Drugs Blew Out the U.S. Trade Deficit

Trump’s $12 Billion Tourism Wipeout

Brand Global News Section: Chili’s®, Honeymoon Dessert® and YUM China

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Please sign up for this amazing future looking August 6^th event at the Beall Center for Innovation and Entrepreneurship at the University of California, Irvine at this kink: www.enpinstitute.com/events

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“Global Inflation Projections in 2025 and 2026 – Average headline inflation across the OECD is projected to be 4.2% in 2025, and 3.2% in 2026. The OECD’s previous inflation projections have been revised upwards due to escalating trade barriers. After a global spike in inflation following the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, central banks have worked to cool price growth. This visualization shows the OECD’s latest inflation projections through 2026, highlighting where price pressures are easing—and where they are still stubbornly high.”, OECD Economic Outlook, June 2025

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“Global aid at a crossroads – Global aid faces a pivotal moment. After years of official development assistance increasing, major foreign donors have announced significant reductions. As a result, a 15 to 22 percent reduction in funds is expected, for an estimated loss of $41 billion to $60 billion, according to McKinsey & Co. Senior Partner Tania Holt and coauthors. Stakeholders can consider several levers to combat these challenges, including mobilizing additional resources and reprioritizing investments and programs.”, McKinsey & Co., June 11, 2025

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“Unemployment Rates in OECD Countries in 2025 – Japan and Mexico have the lowest unemployment rates at 2.5%. Spain’s unemployment rate of 10.9% is the highest of all OECD countries. Unemployment rates in Türkiye, Slovenia, and Slovakia are at their lowest levels since 2001. As of March 2025, the average unemployment rate across OECD countries stood at 4.9%, nearly in line with its lowest level since 2001. However, behind that average lies a wide spectrum, ranging from countries at near-record unemployment lows to others grappling with high joblessness.”, OECD & Visual Capitalist, June 20, 2025

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“The world’s most liveable cities in 2025 – Vienna has lost its crown. Instability threatens living standards everywhere. Vienna is a case in point. The Austrian capital was the world’s most liveable city from 2022 to 2024. But this year it lost its place because two foiled terrorist attacks—on a Taylor Swift concert and on a train station—brought down its stability score, which quantifies the threat of military conflict, civil unrest and terrorism. Smaller places generally do well on the index. Only three cities in the top 20 have more than 6m residents. London and New York are in 54th and 69th place respectively.”, The Economist, June 16, 2025

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues

“How Much it Costs to Make 100 T-Shirts – This graphic breaks down the cost to produce 100 T-shirts from manufacturers in various countries. Bangladesh offers the lowest total cost and cost per shirt. Shipping costs significantly impact the total cost, with locations like Ho Chi Minh and Guangdong showing higher shipping fees. Manufacturing in the USA is the most expensive option, with the highest bulk order fee and cost per shirt, despite lower shipping costs. Based on quotes from 50 manufacturers across the U.S., China, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Pakistan, as of April 2025.”, Successful Fashion Designer, June 9, 2025

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Global & Regional Travel News

“Trump’s $12 Billion Tourism Wipeout – Four months into the president’s second term, his policies are upending tourism worldwide. Nine charts show the toll on global travel. US President Donald Trump’s “America First” policies have cut into travel worldwide. The simmering trade war, the crackdown at the border and the rollback of LGBTQ rights—capped by a ban on visitors from a dozen countries announced on June 4—have led to tens of thousands of canceled trips. With travelers choosing alternate destinations, the American economy will lose out on $12.5 billion this year, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council—which will widen the trade deficit, because economists count spending by visitors to the country as an export.”, Bloomberg, June 5, 2025

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Book Review

In Marketcrafters: The 100-Year Struggle to Shape the American Economy, Chris Hughes presents a compelling historical narrative that challenges the myth of the “free market” as a natural phenomenon. Instead, he argues that markets are deliberately created and continuously shaped by policymakers, economists, and corporate interests—a process he calls “marketcraft.” Covering a century of U.S. economic history, from New Deal reforms to Big Tech’s modern dominance, Hughes reveals how intentional rule-making has defined winners and losers in the American economy.

Hughes draws from his background in politics and technology to show how power, not just policy, influences economic outcomes. The book is rigorously researched yet highly readable, offering both historical insight and a call to action for more democratic participation in market design. For global business leaders, Marketcrafters is a timely reminder that markets are not immutable—they’re built, and they can be rebuilt for broader prosperity.

Top 5 Takeaways for Global Businesspeople

Markets Are Engineered, Not Natural – Policies, institutions, and legal frameworks actively shape economic systems.

Power Determines Outcomes – Market structures often reflect the interests of those with influence, not pure efficiency.

Globalization is a Policy Choice – Trade liberalization, labor flows, and tech regulation are outcomes of crafted decisions, not inevitabilities.

Economic Fairness Requires Deliberate Design – Equity and competition don’t emerge on their own—they must be built into market rules.

Business Leaders Are Market Participants and Market Shapers – Executives must recognize their role in shaping fair and functional systems, not just operating within them.

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Country & Regional Updates

Canada

“Strategic Projects Under Consideration in Canada – Ottawa has ambitions to become an energy superpower. The Canadian government is making a strong push to improve the country’s strategic independence. The government of Prime Minister Mark Carney has rallied provincial and business leaders to fast-track infrastructure projects that will make Canada more self-reliant, improve national security and support long-term economic growth. The country wants to become an energy superpower (both for internal consumption and export), improve its export infrastructure, build a strong Arctic presence and boost development of critical mineral resources. Tensions with the U.S. are accelerating these efforts, but the projects address longstanding needs that will persist long after the Trump administration.”, Geopolitical Futures, June 13, 2025

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China

“China’s Top 100 Chain Stores in 2024 Released – Based on the results of the 2024 industry basic situation survey, the China Chain Store & Franchise Association (CCFA) released the “Top 100 Chinese Chains in 2024”. In 2024, the sales volume of the top 100 chain enterprises will be 2.13 trillion yuan, and the total number of stores will be 257,200, an increase of 4.9% and 13.5% respectively over the previous year’s top 100 chain enterprises. Among the top 100 chain enterprises, there are 46 comprehensive retailers, 23 supermarkets, 13 convenience stores, and 18 specialty stores. Among them, comprehensive retail enterprises face the greatest growth pressure, with 19 enterprises experiencing year-on-year sales growth, and 9 enterprises achieving year-on-year double growth in sales and number of stores.”, China Chain Store & Franchise Association, June 18, 2025. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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“Despite Stronger Trade Ties, China’s Influence in Latin America Will Remain Limited – In 2000, the United States was the main trade partner of countries across the Western Hemisphere. However, China soon became the largest trading partner of most regional countries, especially in South America, after joining the World Trade Organization in 2001 and expanding commerce with the region. In the coming years, China will diversify and expand trade and investment in Latin America and the Caribbean amid U.S. protectionism, but Beijing’s influence will likely remain limited due to its declining financial capacity and the region’s enduring ties with the West.”, RANE Worldview, June 11, 2025

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Middle East

“Same Gulf? Different Rules: The Saudi vs UAE Etiquette You Can NOT Ignore – When most Western professionals think of the Gulf region, they tend to paint it with the same brush: conservative, wealthy, hierarchical, and relationship-driven. And while there is truth to that, each country has its own unwritten rules that can make or break a deal. One of the biggest mistakes expats make is assuming the Gulf is culturally identical. Many think a smooth pitch in Dubai guarantees success in Riyadh. In reality, copying your UAE approach in Saudi can damage trust overnight. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the subtle but important differences between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).”, Star Katz, June 22, 2025. Compliments of Corina Goertz.

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United States

“The Biggest Companies Across America Are Cutting Their Workforces – It isn’t just Amazon. There’s a growing belief that having too many employees will slow a company down—and that anyone still on the payroll could be working harder. U.S. public companies have reduced their white-collar workforces by a collective 3.5% over the past three years, according to employment data-provider Live Data Technologies. Over the past decade, one in five companies in the S&P 500 have shrunk. New technologies like generative artificial intelligence are allowing companies to do more with less. The message from many bosses: Anyone still on the payroll could be working harder.”, The Wall Street Journal, June 18, 2025

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“How big trade deficit drop as tariffs hit imports is playing out inside U.S. supply chain and economy – The U.S. trade deficit has plunged as imports surged and then plummeted as a result of President Trump’s trade war and tariffs. The impact of rapid global economic shifts can be seen in the supply chain activity across the U.S., from warehouses to freight orders and inventory. The data points to greater pain for small businesses. The U.S. trade deficit fell by the largest amount on record in April as imports fell by over 16% after a surge in orders to beat President Trump’s tariffs, but there’s a worrying flip side for the consumer. As the trade war whipsaws global economic activity, supply chain data shows that the retail inventory crunch could be next and small business across the country are bearing the brunt of the pain. From freight orders to inventory and warehousing, the latest logistics data shows the inability of many importers to make business decisions related to inventory levels.”, CNBC, June 5, 2025

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“How Weight-Loss Drugs Blew Out the U.S. Trade Deficit – Shipments have propelled Ireland, a country of 5.4 million, to the second-largest goods-trade imbalance with the U.S., behind China. Planes have been jetting from Ireland to the U.S. this year carrying something more valuable than gold: $36 billion worth of hormones for popular obesity and diabetes drugs. Fit into temperature-controlled air-cargo containers, the pharmaceutical ingredients have had a huge impact on the U.S. trade imbalance. The shipments have propelled Ireland, a country of only 5.4 million people, to the second-largest goods-trade imbalance with the U.S., trailing only China. They accounted for roughly half of the $71 billion in goods the U.S. imported from the country in the first four months of the year.”, The Wall Street Journal, June 20, 2025.

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Vietnam

“Vietnam risks being the trade war’s biggest loser. Does it have a plan B? The south-east Asian country benefited hugely from US-China tensions, but the Trump tariffs strike at the heart of its economy.  On Trump’s so-called “liberation day”, he announced Vietnam would face a 46 per cent tariff rate, one of the highest in the world. For A&M and its 120 employees, new orders from American clients slowed to a trickle. Like thousands of companies across Vietnam, it is now frantically trying to figure out its future.   The country’s recent economic success — with GDP growth at 7 per cent last year — has been driven primarily by exports to the US and surging investments from companies fleeing China.”, The Financial Times, June 12, 2025

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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification

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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News

“(U.S.) Congressional Leaders Introduce Resolution Recognizing First-Ever World Franchise Day – A bipartisan and bicameral group of lawmakers today introduced a historic congressional resolution recognizing June 11 as the first-ever World Franchise Day, honoring the franchise business model’s impact on job creation, entrepreneurship, and economic development across the United States and the world. The resolution is being led in the U.S. Senate by U.S. Sens. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) and Chris Coons (D-DE), and in the U.S. House by Representatives by U.S. Reps. Kevin Hern (R-OK), Troy Carter (D-LA), Hillary Scholten (D-MI), and Beth Van Duyne (R-TX). The House resolution has 12 bipartisan original cosponsors. ‘World Franchise Day is a powerful reminder of the franchise model’s unparalleled ability to create opportunity for aspiring entrepreneurs of all backgrounds and walks of life,’ said Matt Haller, IFA President and CEO.”, The International Franchise Association, June 11, 2025

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“Yum China is testing an AI assistant for store managers – The company began incorporating similar tools as early as 2019. Yum China today announced the pilot launch of “Q-Smart,” an artificial intelligence-enabled assistant for restaurant managers, at select KFC restaurants. According to the company, Q-Smart helps with labor scheduling, inventory management, and food quality and safety inspection. Managers can interact with the system using wearable devices such as wireless earphones and smart watches, creating a hands-free experience rather than having to rely on touchscreens or PCs to complete tasks. An example of Q-Smart’s application is its ability to monitor a restaurant’s inventory and compare it with upcoming sales forecasting, reminding managers to make timely ordering decisions. Q-Smart can also understand and respond to managers’ voice commands, helping them to conduct equipment inspections and inventory counts. Further, the system can provide real-time support and solutions for managers to handle urgent operational issues.”, NRN, June 20, 2025

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“After a Bruising Year, Casual-Dining Chains Try to Stage a Comeback – Vintage restaurant brands aim for overhauls without scaring loyal customers; ‘No one is getting drunk at Cracker Barrel’. Restaurants like Cracker Barrel and Red Lobster are working to stage a comeback by spending millions to update menus and dining rooms. Red Lobster is recovering from bankruptcy with new leadership, menu updates and improved customer sentiment. Chains like Chili’s and Texas Roadhouse have focused on offering high service levels and good prices. U.S. restaurant bankruptcies last year hit the highest level in decades excluding 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic upended the industry. TGI Fridays, Rubio’s Coastal Grill and Red Lobster were among chains that filed for Chapter 11, closing hundreds of restaurants……the shakeout in casual dining continues as brands such as Denny’s, Applebee’s and Hooters close locations in efforts to improve profitability. Restaurant locations run by the largest casual-dining chains dropped 1.2% last year, the first unit decline since 2020, according to market-research firm Technomic.”, The Wall Street Journal, June 20, 2025

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“Honeymoon Dessert launches global partner program – The dessert industry seeks new support points through self service model and overseas expansion. Honeymoon Dessert, which is sandwiched between the forces of new tea drinks, has launched a global partner program while fine-tuning and adjusting its business model, emphasizing its determination to expand overseas. Honeymoon Dessert “has now arrived in Southeast Asia, North America, Europe and other places”, and a new store in Thailand is about to open. After 30 years, Honeymoon Desserts is not only exploring the old business of stores.”, Caijing.com.cn, June 17, 2025. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto.

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To receive our biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries.   We do not get involved in or report on politics!

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William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global.  With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other.  He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ companies global.

To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here –  https://insider.edwardsglobal.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896

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