Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 140, Tuesday, August 5, 2025
“Resilience is the new currency of global business.”
Welcome to the 140th Edition of the Global Business Update – Global volatility has eased but rising tariff tensions are reshaping the international business landscape. President Trump’s sweeping new tariff orders—targeting imports from over 70 countries—are sparking concern across industries. U.S. consumers are reacting strongly: 86% express concern about tariffs, with 77% fearing a recession and 43% anticipating higher prices or product shortages. While intended to bolster U.S. manufacturing, economists warn these actions could trigger renewed inflation and suppress demand.
Trade policy uncertainty is now the top disruptor to global growth, according to McKinsey’s latest economic survey. Surprisingly, most executives are not prioritizing trade strategy responses; instead, AI investment remains their central focus. McDonald’s, for example, is rolling out AI-driven order systems globally after testing success in India.
Despite modest economic stabilization, the U.S. labor market has weakened, particularly in hospitality and entry-level tech jobs—partly due to automation pressures.
On the international stage, China’s trade dominance continues to grow, while its domestic consumption debate intensifies. The EU and U.S. remain large trading blocs but are now navigating more protectionist climates. Africa’s booming e-commerce sector shows promise, though limited credit access poses challenges.
The global franchise sector continues to show resilience amid global headwinds. McDonald’s is selling off the real estate for several restaurants in Hong Kong. Wendy’s is expanding into Italy and Armenia, adding up to 190 new units. Marco’s Pizza celebrates milestones in Mexico and Puerto Rico, reinforcing its international growth. Reborn Coffee signed a master franchise deal with Dubai’s Arjomand Group, aiming to scale in Europe and the Middle East. The RIFC 50 Index rose 2.2% in Q2, led by strong gains from Avis and Hertz. Krispy Kreme, however, dropped sharply. Asia Pacific remains a franchising hotbed, with demand driven by health-conscious brands and digital convenience across F&B segments.
This issue’s book is Resurgent: How established organizations can fight back and thrive in an age of digital transformation by Julian Birkinshaw and John Fallon. In Resurgent, business strategist Julian Birkinshaw and former Pearson CEO John Fallon dismantle the myth that only startups and disruptors succeed in volatile times. Drawing from two decades of data across global corporations, they reveal how established companies not only survive—but often thrive—amid technological, economic, and geopolitical upheaval.
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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. We do not get involved with or report on politics!
PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896
Link to our current and past newsletters: https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“Think globally, but act with surgical local precision.”, Amara Li, Asia Market Strategist
“AI is your compass, but culture is still your map.”, Ravi Menon, Global Innovation Consultant
“Resilience is the new currency of global business.”, Leila Morgan, CEO, Borderless Ventures
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Highlights in issue #140:
The World’s 50 Most Valuable Private Companies in 2025
Trump’s new tariffs will hit these major trading partners
86% of (U.S.) Consumers Express Concerns About Tariffs
Global Trade Dominance: U.S., EU, or China (2000 vs. 2024)
The Consumption Conundrum Dividing China’s Economists –
Brand Global News Section: Marco’s Pizza®, McDonald’s®, Reborn Coffee®, Starbucks® and Wendy’s®
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“Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, June 2025 – Overall economic volatility has subsided, but consumer confidence is deteriorating and demand remains fragile, despite inflation decelerating across most countries. Businesses are keeping a close watch on potential trade disruptions. Indeed, the perceived risk from shifts in trade continues to grow, according to the latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions. Respondents cite changes in trade policy or relationships as the top growth disruptor in the global economy, their home economies, and for their companies (Exhibit 1). Interestingly, the survey found that responding to changes in trade dynamics isn’t the priority focus among business leaders in any industry: The largest group of respondents points to leaders prioritizing AI investments.”, McKinsey, July 30, 2025
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“The World’s 50 Most Valuable Private Companies in 2025 – 31 of the 50 most valuable private companies are based in the United States. AI-focused companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and Safe Superintelligence are among the most highly valued. China has 8 entries, including ByteDance, Xiaohongshu, DJI, and Yuanfudao, showing strong representation in consumer tech and hardware. While public markets get most of the spotlight, private companies are quietly building massive valuations and shaping the future of industries. This visualization ranks the world’s 50 most valuable private companies in 2025, highlighting emerging powerhouses from different countries and sectors. The data for this visualization comes from CB Insights. It ranks private companies globally by their most recent reported valuations.”, Visual Capitalist and CB Insights, July 31, 2025
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“War, geopolitics, energy crisis: how the economy evades every disaster – Although today’s dangers are not in the same league as a world war, they are significant. Pundits talk of a “polycrisis” running from the covid-19 pandemic, land war in Europe and the worst energy shock since the 1970s to stubborn inflation, banking scares, a Chinese property bust and trade war. One measure of global risk is 30% higher than its long-term average (see chart 1). Consumer-confidence surveys suggest that households are unusually pessimistic about the state of the economy, both in America and elsewhere.”, The Economist, July 15, 2025
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“McDonald’s plans AI expansion to streamline customer orders, executive says – Fast-food giant to roll out AI tech that will catch order errors, forecast sales. The fast-food giant currently uses AI to verify orders at 400 restaurants in India, allowing the chain to catch and correct errors before food is handed to customers, according to the outlet. McDonald’s is planning to roll out the new system globally in two years, Head of Global Business Services Operations Deshant Kaila said, Reuters reported. Fox Business, August 1, 2025
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“Is AI Killing Entry-Level Jobs? Here’s What We Know – Job postings have plunged and unemployment is up for young people, yet new research suggests an emerging paradox in which AI may expand access in some fields. AI’s arrival is adding to the anxiety of graduates scrambling to land their first job interviews. It may also be making them less likely to secure one: The US unemployment rate for college-educated people age 22 through 27 reached 5.8% in March, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York—the highest level in four years and significantly above the national average. Many people blame AI. Researchers at job site Indeed found that postings for junior roles in the tech industry fell 36% from 2020 to 2025.”, Bloomberg, July 31, 2025
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“Trade Between the U.S. and EU Is Massive. We Break It Down. After steeper threat, deal sets 15% baseline tariff on largest U.S. trading partner. While Mexico ranks as the largest single-country U.S. trading partner, the EU as a 27-nation bloc is larger, and EU trade policy is handled centrally. In 2024, the U.S. imported about $606 billion in goods from the EU and exported around $370 billion. This kind of imbalance is a major sticking point for Trump as he tries to use tariffs to revamp U.S. manufacturing. Europe is a big buyer of U.S. oil, gas, cars, airplanes—and human blood products like plasma. The U.S. shipped $32.3 billion worth of airplanes and airplane parts, plus $12.4 billion worth of vehicles to the EU. Many of the cars shipped across the Atlantic are European brands, like BMWs and Mercedes made in American factories. The U.S. sent $5.2 billion in blood products to the EU last year.”, The Wall Street Journal, July 29, 2025
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“Global Trade Dominance: U.S., EU, or China (2000 vs. 2024) – In 2000, the U.S. was the top trading partner for most of the Americas, several major Asia-Pacific economies, and parts of Africa. The EU dominated trade with much of Europe, large parts of Africa and Asia, and significant portions of South America. China was the largest partner for only a few smaller economies, including Myanmar, Mongolia, North Korea, Oman, Sudan, and Yemen. By 2024, China’s trade footprint expanded dramatically, becoming the largest trading partner for nearly all of Asia, much of Africa, and the majority of South America. The U.S. maintained dominance in North America and select countries in South America. The EU remained the leading partner for much of Europe, North Africa, and nearby regions, but its global reach diminished relative to China’s. China’s total trade surged from $474 billion in 2000 to $6.2 trillion in 2024, overtaking both the U.S. and EU to become the world’s leading trading power.”, Visual Capitalist and various other sources, July 7, 2024
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“Trump’s new tariffs will hit these major trading partners – Here’s how Canada, Mexico, China and other countries fare under President Donald Trump’s plan to rebalance global trade. In a pair of executive orders, President Donald Trump has raised tariffs on merchandise from about 70 countries, most of them set to fall into place in a week. Trump has argued that his high-risk trade strategy will rebalance a global system that he said has been tilted against the United States — even as some economists warn that it could lead to renewed inflation and recession.”, Washington Post, July 31, 2025
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“10 Most Expensive Countries in the World to Grab a Cappuccino – How much is too much for coffee? According to Deutsche Bank’s 2025 “Mapping the World’s Prices” report, the cheapest cup of cappuccino in the world is in Cairo, Egypt, at just $1.57. While Zurich in Switzerland tops the chart at a steep $6.77 per cup.”, Conde Nast Traveler, August 1,2 2025
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“86% of (U.S.) Consumers Express Concerns About Tariffs – 7% are worried about general inflation, 47% are worried about higher prices on nonessential items, and 43% of U.S. consumers are concerned about the limited availability of certain products. 77% of respondents are concerned about the possibility of a recession in the coming year. 71% of consumers say they are aware of new or proposed tariffs on goods imported into the U.S. 43% oppose tariffs, 29% support, and 28% feel neutral. 27% of U.S. consumers say tariffs will have a positive impact on the nation’s economy, 58% believe they will have a negative effect.”, Franchising.com, July 30th. From an article by M. Scott Morris
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Global & Regional Travel News
“A New Tourist Visa Will Make Travel Much Easier Among 6 Gulf Countries – Set to launch by early 2026, the new multicountry visa was modeled after Europe’s Schengen visa system. In a sweeping move set to transform travel in the Middle East, six Gulf countries have announced plans to implement a unified tourist visa, allowing visitors to move freely across Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates under a single entry permit. Called the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Grand Tours Visa (or the GCC Unified Visa), the long-anticipated initiative, modeled on Europe’s Schengen visa system, is expected to launch by the end of 2025 or early 2026. GCC officials say the visa will simplify travel and encourage longer, multicountry trips throughout the region.”, AFAR, July 28, 2025
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Book Review
Resurgent: How established organizations can fight back and thrive in an age of digital transformation by Julian Birkinshaw and John Fallon. In Resurgent, business strategist Julian Birkinshaw and former Pearson CEO John Fallon dismantle the myth that only startups and disruptors succeed in volatile times. Drawing from two decades of data across global corporations, they reveal how established companies not only survive—but often thrive—amid technological, economic, and geopolitical upheaval.
Rather than chasing radical reinvention, the authors argue, resilient incumbents succeed through strategic adaptation, cultural consistency, and thoughtful long-term investments. Through case studies from industries like media, education, aviation, and healthcare, Resurgent shows how companies like Microsoft, Pearson, and Schneider Electric reinvented their trajectories without losing their identity.
This book is especially timely for 2025’s global leaders managing through tariff uncertainty, AI disruption, and market fragmentation. It offers a pragmatic, evidence-backed alternative to short-termism: recommit to purpose, empower people, and evolve decisively.
Five Key Takeaways:
Survival isn’t about speed—it’s about strategic clarity and durability.
Don’t abandon your core business; evolve it with conviction.
Reinvention can be incremental yet powerful – consistency builds trust across markets.
Empower local leadership in global operations to respond with agility.
Enduring companies balance purpose and performance, even under pressure.
Resurgent is a must-read for executives facing today’s complex global environment. It’s a thoughtful counterpoint to the “disrupt or die” narrative—grounded in experience, not hype.
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Country & Regional Updates
Africa
“How to unlock e-commerce in Africa – Small and medium-sized businesses need better credit access. Africa’s e-commerce sector is experiencing a renaissance. In 2025, Africa’s retail e-commerce is expected to reach over $39 billion, and $55 billion by 2029. This growth is driven by ambitious brands, from contemporary fashion labels to innovative lifestyle businesses, capturing both local and international demand. These businesses are leveraging digital commerce and modern payment rails to reach more customers than ever before. E-commerce is also emerging as a critical lever to help businesses recover from economic shocks and unlock the trade potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Yet one critical barrier threatens to limit their growth: access to affordable, flexible credit. The financing shortfall for sub-Saharan Africa exceeds $331 billion, with medium-sized consumer-facing businesses among the hardest hit. As Africa’s middle class expands, with roughly 212 million people projected to reach middle income status by 2030 and consumer spending expected to hit $2 trillion in 2025—the demand for e-commerce will surge. However, tight credit access could block supply-side growth.”, Fast Company, August 1, 2025
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Asia
“The global crypto wave is catching on in Asia as businesses warm up to stablecoins – Unlike conventional bank transfers that take days and incur steep processing fees, stablecoin transactions are nearly instantaneous and also cheaper. Singapore and Hong Kong were among the top three markets for stablecoin flows, just following the U.S. Businesses across Asia are increasingly warming up to stablecoins for cross-border transactions — a trend set to accelerate further as Hong Kong moves to legalize the use of digital tokens, experts told CNBC. From online travel agencies and luxury goods resellers to high-end hotels, companies are embracing stablecoin for payments, citing both speed and cost-efficiency compared to the traditional financial system. Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies usually pegged to sovereign currencies or even gold, making them more stable compared to other crypto assets.”, CNBC, August 1, 2025
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Canada
“Canadian producers relieved as Trump’s 50% tariff on imported copper spares key products – The White House said it will slap the duty on copper pipes, wires, rods, sheets and tubes as well as derivative products such as pipe fittings, cables and electrical components. However, copper concentrate and anodes and cathodes, semi-processed materials that companies in Canada produce and export in large volumes, as well as copper scrap, are exempt for the time being, it said.”, The Globe and Mail, July 30, 2025
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China
“The Consumption Conundrum Dividing China’s Economists – Household consumption — or rather the lack of it — has been at the center of the policymaking debate in China for several years, and top officials from President Xi Jinping down have become increasingly vocal about the need to increase domestic demand amid growing headwinds facing the world’s second-largest economy. As the government and its advisers prepare to put together the 15th Five-Year Plan to guide the country’s economic and social development through 2030, a contentious debate has erupted over the true strength of the Chinese consumer and what policies are needed to get them to spend more. The dispute is pitting influential economists against each other. One side argues that China’s consumption power is significantly underestimated by traditional monetary metrics, which don’t take price differences and currency valuations into account.”, Caixin Global, July 15, 2025
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United Kingdom
“HSBC tells managing directors to return to office four days a week – London-listed bank’s senior managers must ‘set the tone from the top’ by being present from October, following a trend in the banking sector. It is the latest example of a big UK company pushing for higher office attendance amid concerns over productivity since pandemic-era lockdowns caused a surge in remote working. The likes of JP Morgan, Tesco, John Lewis and Uber have all introduced policies to compel employees to show up more. HSBC’s memo defines in-office work as work in the bank’s offices or with customers, Bloomberg reported. It includes visiting stakeholders and attending conferences, offsite meetings or the equivalent.”, The Times of London, July 29, 2025
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United States
“The (U.S.) labor market has slowed to a crawl – Restaurant job growth has flattened in recent months while employment throughout the economy has slowed this year, according to new federal data. Restaurant and bar employment was flat in July, down 300 jobs, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The industry has added just 100 jobs over the past two months, continuing a period of year-long, tepid employment growth.
The overall economic picture is not much better. The economy added 73,000 jobs, under expectations, but prior months’ jobs estimates were revised downward significantly. May’s job growth was revised downward to 19,000 from 144,000, for instance. June’s was revised to 14,000 from 147,000, according to the Labor Department.”, Restaurant Business, August 1, 2025
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“Charting the Global Economy: US Job Market Wavers in Cue for Fed – The US labor market is wavering after a slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year — implications of heightened uncertainty tied to trade policy. Signs of a sluggish job market and the risk of a reacceleration in inflation due to higher import duties are dueling forces dividing Federal Reserve officials over the path of interest rates. In the wake of a weak jobs report on Friday, Treasury yields declined on bets the Fed will lower interest rates as soon as September after keeping them unchanged this week.”, Bloomberg, August 2, 2025
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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification
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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News
“McDonald’s seeks US 153 million for 8 Hong Kong retail properties in rare asset sale – Fast-food chain to sell assets in Tsim Sha Tsui, Causeway Bay, Mong Kok, Kennedy Town, Tai Kok Tsui, Yuen Long, Tsuen Wan and Tsz Wan Shan. McDonald’s Corp is selling eight retail properties in Hong Kong with an estimated market value of HK$1.2 billion (US$153 million), giving investors a rare opportunity to own fully tenanted assets, as the world’s biggest fast-food chain reviews its real estate portfolio in the city. McDonald’s said it would continue to operate its restaurants in the eight locations on long-term leases. Some of the properties would be sold with additional tenancies involving 7-Eleven convenience stores and independent pharmacies, it added.”, South China Morning Post, July 28, 2025. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
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“Starbucks Says Over 20 Firms Interested in Buying China Business Plans to Retain Significant Stake – On July 29 local time, during the earnings call for Q3 FY2025 (calendar Q2), Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol stated that the company has been actively looking for a strategic partner that shares its values to capture future growth opportunities in China. More than 20 interested parties have shown strong interest, and Starbucks is currently evaluating its options. Niccol candidly noted that the ideal partner would help Starbucks operate more efficiently in China. “This isn’t about capital — it’s about ensuring that the Starbucks brand remains in a position of strength. I believe there are still thousands more Starbucks stores to come in the China market,” he said.”, Caixin, July 29, 2025. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., July 29, 2025
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“RIFC 50 Index – The RIFC 50 Index, initially published in 2002 by the Rosenberg International Franchise Center (RIFC), is the first stock index to track the financial market performance of the US franchising sector. It is published quarterly. The RIFC 50 Index gained 2.2 percent in market value in 2Q 2025, with 32 Index components posting positive returns, with 22 garnering double digit returns. Car rental franchisors Avis Budget Group (CAR) and Hertz Global (HTZ) had very strong performances, up +123 percent and +74.8 percent, respectively. Krispy Kreme Donuts (DNUT) had the Index’ weakest performance in 2Q 2025, shedding 40.3 percent of its market value. Year to date, the RIFC 50 Index is up 3.3 percent while over 1-year, 5-years, and 10-years, the RIFC 50 Index returned +11.9%, +80.0%, and 87.0% respectively. Since its inception in 2000, it has gained 497.5%.” The Rosenberg International Franchise Center, Peter Paul College of Business and Economics, University of New Hampshire, July 2025. Compliments of E. Hachemi Aliouche, Ph.D., Director – Rosenberg International Franchise Center, Rosenberg Chair in Franchising, University of New Hampshire
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“Reborn Coffee signs $1.7m franchise deal – The US specialty coffee group has inked licensing deals for over 100 stores across a dozen international markets, with its latest agreement focused on kickstarting outlet growth in Europe and the Middle East. US specialty coffee group Reborn Coffee has signed a master franchise agreement with Dubai-based Arjomand Group to open stores across Europe and the Middle East. The coffee chain, which has 11 stores in the US and a single international site in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, has previously announced agreements to open outlets in the UAE, the Czech Republic, Austria and Italy. However, first stores in Dubai and Prague, which were scheduled to open in June 2025, are yet to materialise. Reborn also has multiple franchise deals in place to launch in China, alongside partnerships in South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Turkey – which could add over 100 stores to its international footprint, if fully realised.”, World Coffee Portal, July 21, 2025
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“Wendy’s Announces New Development Agreements for 190 New Restaurants Across Italy and Armenia. Momentum builds behind global expansion strategy as brand aims to accelerate global net unit growth to achieve 2,000 international restaurants by 2028. The Wendy’s Company announced today the finalization of two new franchise agreements that will add up to 190 new Wendy’s® restaurants across Italy and Armenia, marking a significant step forward in advancing the brand’s strategic priority to accelerate global net unit growth. These commitments support Wendy’s goal to achieve 70 percent of its unit growth outside the United States, with the Company expecting to reach 2,000 international restaurants by 2028.”, Wendy’s, July 29, 2025
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“Marco’s Pizza Celebrates Key International Milestones in Mexico and Puerto Rico – Marco’s Pizza, one of the nation’s fastest-growing pizza brands, celebrates major milestones in its international expansion strategy – marking one year since opening its first location in Mexico and ten years of operations in Puerto Rico. These anniversaries underscore the brand’s robust global appeal and continued investment in international development. Marco’s entrance into Mexico began in 2024 through a 50-unit master franchise agreement with Grupo Pizza Amantes SA de CV, a seasoned group of operators with decades of experience in the restaurant and hospitality industry.”, Franchising.com, July 22, 2205
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“Trends shaping the next phase of growth in Asia Pacific’s franchise boom – F&B remains the most franchised sector in Asia Pacific. Brands in quick service restaurants, coffee chains and casual dining continue to expand rapidly, especially in Southeast Asia and China. Tech continues to shape how franchises operate as touchless payment systems, loyalty apps or app-based ordering become the norm. The booming health and wellness focus offers prime opportunities as brands focused on health-conscious lifestyle concepts are rapidly gaining traction across Asia Pacific. Consumers, especially younger demographics, are actively choosing brands that demonstrate environmental responsibility.”, Baker McKenzie, July 25, 2025
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
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William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ companies global.
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