Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 148, Tuesday, November 25, 2025
“We are entering an age of protracted geopolitical competition that will reshape the world economy.”
Welcome to the 148th Edition of the Global Business Update – Global business conditions are increasingly shaped by powerful and sometimes conflicting forces—from accelerating AI investment to persistent economic uncertainty and shifting trade dynamics.
AI continues its breakneck expansion. Major tech companies report record capital spending, driving unprecedented demand for the physical backbone of data centers—chips, servers, transformers, and energy infrastructure.
Macroeconomic stresses remain significant. Global public debt has climbed to $102 trillion, with developing nations’ debt burdens rising twice as fast as those of advanced economies. Meanwhile, the booming digital economy is becoming increasingly concentrated among a handful of technologically dominant countries, leaving many others confined to the role of data suppliers rather than value creators.
Trade and tariff volatility continue to influence global supply chains, prices, and investment decisions. With U.S. tariff policy in flux and key court decisions underway, businesses face ongoing uncertainty.
Economic performance varies widely. Europe shows modest resilience, the U.K. slows following supply disruptions, Mexico risks recession, and China sees its strongest foreign equity inflows in four years. Additional trends—from Bolivia’s return to credit markets to demographic shifts in New Zealand’s business-buying landscape—underscore the rapid changes underway.
In global franchise sector news, analysts expect 2026 to bring strong M&A and IPO activity in the restaurant sector, with high-performing concepts seeking capital and distressed brands looking for turnaround investment. Emerging restaurant chains are also evaluating when they are ready to expand internationally. Europe and the U.K. remain top destinations for U.S. franchisors, who must adapt to shifting labor markets, the gig economy, and evolving real estate conditions.
Krispy Kreme has entered Spain and plans additional locations across Brazil and Uzbekistan, while Anytime Fitness has opened its first club in Dubai, extending its footprint to 49 countries. Captain D’s has debuted in the U.K., and Great American Cookies and Marble Slab Creamery will launch 10 co-branded stores in Iraq. Meanwhile, chicken chains—especially KFC—see global demand rising sharply, fueled by consumer preference and ease of cross-border adoption.
This edition’s book review highlights a CEO for All Seasons by Carolyn Dewar, Scott Keller, Vikram Malhotraand Kurt Strovink is one of the most relevant leadership books of 2025, offering a fresh and timely look at what it means to lead in an era defined by volatility, artificial intelligence, geopolitical uncertainty, and shifting workforce expectations. Rather than presenting a one-size-fits-all leadership formula, the book argues that today’s most effective executives are “seasonal CEOs”—leaders who can shift styles, mindsets, and strategies depending on market conditions, cultural context, and organizational stage.
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To receive our biweekly newsletter by email every other Tuesday, click here https://insider.edwardsglobal.com
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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. We do not get involved with or report on politics!
PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896
Link to our current and past newsletters: https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“We are entering an age of protracted geopolitical competition that will reshape the world economy.”, Dr. Hal Brands, Bloomberg Opinion
“Leadership is the capacity to translate vision into reality.” — Warren Bennis
“A thankful heart is not only the greatest virtue, but the parent of all other virtues.”, Marcus Tullius Cicero. This week is Thanksgiving here in the USA
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Highlights in issue #148:
Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes, Tariffs & Trade Issues
US Consumer Sentiment Nears Record Low
Euro Zone Set for Moderate Growth After Resilience in 2025
Digital economy: A new frontier for trade, sustainability and inclusion
Franchise Global News Section: Anytime Fitness®, Captain D’s®, Great American Cookies®, Krispy Kreme®, KFC®, Luckin Coffee® and Marble Slab®
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“When AI Hype Meets AI Reality – Record capital expenditures and data-center planning run up against the ground truths of physical infrastructure. The rate at which tech companies and startups are investing in AI shows no signs of slowing. In their latest financial reports, all of the big spenders revealed that their current investments had grown significantly, and projected that this trend would continue. All this investment has translated into record spending on the stuff that goes into data centers—aka “AI supercomputers”—all those chips, servers, HVAC systems, transformers, gas turbines, power lines and power plants.”, The Wall Street Journal, November 14, 2025
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“Vistage Digital Engagement – A predictor of productivity – Generative artificial intelligence (Gen Al) is accelerating disruption at an unprecedented pace. Its rapid evolution and transformative capabilities are redefining the way businesses operate, innovate, and compete. While we are only beginning to grasp the full scope of its potential, Gen Al is already delivering immediate and profound gains in productivity – ushering in a new era of possibility for leaders ready to embrace it. Despite its technological wonderment, humans will determine the speed of Gen Al’s impact and adoption. Today’s digitally engaged workers will lead the charge, pushing the organization into the future.”, Vistage, November 2025
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“A World of Debt – REPORT 2025 – Public debt can be vital for development. Governments use it to finance expenditures, protect and invest in their people and pave the way to a better future. However, when public debt grows excessively or its costs outweigh its benefits, it becomes a heavy burden. This is precisely what is happening across the developing world today. Global public debt reached a record high of $102 trillion in 2024. Although public debt in developing countries accounted for less than one third of the total – $31 trillion – it has grown twice as fast as in developed economies since 2010.”, UN Trade & Development, 4th Quarter 2025
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“Digital economy: A new frontier for trade, sustainability and inclusion – The digital economy marks the newest chapter in the long-running story of trade, driven in part by technological advances like artificial intelligence (AI) – a market projected to reach $5 trillion by 2033. The digital economy is booming but highly concentrated in a handful of countries, leaving the rest of the world, including many least developed countries, often relegated to the role of mere data providers.”, UN Trade & Development, September 30, 2025
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes, Tariffs & Trade Issues
“We Analyzed 5,000 Calls to Find Out What CEOs Really Think About Tariffs – Trump’s trade war is a pain, but less so than many executives expected. Business leaders are sounding less gloomy about tariffs, which are coming up less often in earnings calls. Businesses are mitigating tariff costs by securing exemptions, raising prices, cutting spending and rearranging supply chains. Companies have passed about two-thirds of tariff costs to customers, a decrease from nearly 100% in Trump’s first term.”, The Wall Street Journal, November 24, 2025
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“Cocoa Extends Slump to 21-Month Low on Robust Ivorian Supplies – Prices dropped as much as 2.7% on Monday, and are down about 60% from a record high set in December on forecasts for a bigger global surplus driven by better production and weakening demand. Traders are keeping a close eye on supplies from West Africa as farms continue to recover from poor harvests that caused prices to soar to an all-time high.”, Bloomberg, November 24, 2025
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“Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes, Tariffs & Trade Issues – Here’s what’s going on with Trump’s tariffs, prices and the Supreme Court. This is everything you need to know about where tariffs stand, and where they’re going. The levies that importers pay to bring in specific products fromforeign countries have evolved so many times that American shoppers could be forgiven for not knowing what is on, what is off, and what is on the table. Add in a pair of Supreme Court cases, tumultuous trade negotiations with longtime allies and national security concerns and it’s enough to make anyone need a field guide. This is what to know about tariffs currently in place, those threatened by court cases and how consumers are being hit.”, The Washington Post, November 16, 2025
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“Navigating Non-Tariff Barriers and Global Trade Challenges – The Global Chamber® Export-Import Forum, moderated by Anita Rodal, featured Bill Edwards, CEO and Global Trade Advisor at Edwards Global Services (Your newsletter Editor!!!), in a dynamic and highly informative discussion on international trade challenges and non-tariff barriers (NTBs) that impact businesses especially small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Bill emphasized that while tariffs are often discussed in trade policy, non-tariff barriers — including certification requirements, labeling regulations, customs procedures, and shifting political environments — often create even greater obstacles for small exporters. ‘About half of all non-tariff barriers serve legitimate public purposes,’ Bill explained, ‘But the other half can act as discriminatory trade barriers — depending on market.’”, Global Chamber, October 23rd. Please go to this link for the YouTube webinar:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7_pH5kSF6Q
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Global & Regional Travel News
“US tourism expected to score big with FIFA World Cup – International tourism to the U.S. could get a much-needed boost from the 2026 FIFA World Cup after a sluggish 2025, when visitors stayed away amid unease over President Donald Trump’s trade policies and concerns about tougher border scrutiny. Foreign visitation to the U.S. was down 4% year to date through July, according to visa data from the National Travel and Tourism Office. Travel data company Tourism Economics projects a full-year decline of about 6.3% in 2025. The World Cup, which will take place from June 11 to July 19, could account for roughly one in three additional foreign visitors to the U.S. in 2026, Tourism Economics estimates.”, Reuters, November 19, 2025
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‘World’s Safest Airline’: Air New Zealand Wins Big At World Travel Awards – Air New Zealand is flying high after collecting several industry awards these past few weeks, including the world’s safest airline, best airline in the South Pacific, and innovation of the year, and Australia’s most trusted airline. The airline has been acknowledged not only for its innovative designs but also for its continued commitment to sustainability. Air NZ was named by the World Travel Awards 2025 as Oceania’s leading airline, beating other carriers such as Fiji Airways and Qantas.”, Simply Flying, November 21, 2025
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Book Review
A CEO for All Seasons by Carolyn Dewar, Scott Keller, Vikram Malhotra and Kurt Strovink is one of the most relevant leadership books of 2025, offering a fresh and timely look at what it means to lead in an era defined by volatility, artificial intelligence, geopolitical uncertainty, and shifting workforce expectations. Rather than presenting a one-size-fits-all leadership formula, the book argues that today’s most effective executives are “seasonal CEOs”—leaders who can shift styles, mindsets, and strategies depending on market conditions, cultural context, and organizational stage.
The author blends real-world case studies, global business examples, and insights from executives across multiple continents. What stands out most is the book’s emphasis on adaptability—not as a buzzword, but as a disciplined practice. The writing is clear, contemporary, and highly actionable for CEOs, founders, and senior executives navigating global growth.
Top 5 Takeaways for Global Businesspeople
1. Leadership must be climate-adaptive, not personality-fixed. Great CEOs today flex between being a visionary, operator, crisis manager, diplomat, or culture-builder depending on what the moment requires.
2. Global markets require cultural seasonality. What motivates teams in Los Angeles may not work in Dubai, Tokyo, or São Paulo. Leaders must shift communication, incentives, and decision-making norms to match local cultures.
3. AI fluency is no longer optional. The book makes a compelling case that CEOs who don’t embrace AI as a co-executive—not just a tool—will fall behind. Decision cycles must be faster, data-driven, and augmented by automation.
4. Trust is the new global currency. In fragmented geopolitical environments, stakeholders choose brands—and partners—they trust. Transparency and consistency matter more than ever.
5. Resilience must be built, not assumed. The strongest organizations develop systems for resilience: diversified supply chains, cross-trained teams, scenario-planning, and disciplined cash management.
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Country & Regional Updates
Bolivia
“Bolivia Charts Return to International Credit Market by 2027 – Bolivia’s new government expects to secure up to $5 billion in multilateral loans next year and return to international credit markets in late 2026 or early 2027, Finance Minister José Gabriel Espinoza said. Around half of the loans under discussion are aimed at boosting private-sector transport, energy and infrastructure projects, Espinoza said. The Paz administration plans to cut costly fuel subsidies and transfer fuel distribution to the private sector to make it more efficient, while keeping state-owned YPFB in charge of supplying remote places.”, Bloomberg, November 20, 2025
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China
“Foreign investors return to China’s stock market – DeepSeek AI breakthrough spurs biggest overseas inflows in four years. Foreign purchases of Chinese equities have hit their highest level in four years, in a sign global investors are reassessing a market that until recently was considered “uninvestable”. Offshore inflows into China stocks from January to October this year totalled $50.6bn, up from $11.4bn in 2024….”, The Financial Times, November 15, 2025
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Eurozone Countries
“Euro Zone Set for Moderate Growth After Resilience in 2025 – The European Commission says the euro-area economy will maintain its moderate expansion after weathering Donald Trump’s tariff turmoil better than expected. Output will rise, with the commission predicting an upgrade for this year compared with May’s prediction, and a small downgrade for 2026, and inflation is seen at 2.1% in 2025. The commission sees recent outperformance driven by a pre-tariff surge in exports and investments, and says higher spending by governments, private consumption and a tight labor market should underpin expansion.”, Bloomberg, November 17, 2025
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Mexico
“Mexico Economy Dipped Last Quarter, Fueling Recession Fears – Mexico’s economy shrunk in the third quarter due in large part to trade uncertainty stoked by US President Donald Trump. Gross domestic product fell 0.3% in the July-to-September period compared to the prior three months, and declined 0.1% from a year ago. If Mexico’s economy were to suffer a contraction in the fourth quarter, it would tip into a technical recession, according to analysts. The national statistics institute also revised second-quarter figures downward, saying the economy fell 0.1% versus the same period the previous year, compared to the initial report of no change.”, Bloomberg, November 21, 2025
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New Zealand
“New Trends Emerging in New Zealand Business Sales Market – Younger, more diverse buyers are increasingly entering the market as older owners step aside. New research from The ABC Business September 2025 Quarterly Market Intelligence Report shows a shift in who is buying and selling businesses in New Zealand. The report reveals that 65% of business sellers are now over 46, while more than half of buyers are younger than that. Many sellers are leaving their businesses for retirement or lifestyle changes, creating opportunities for a new generation of entrepreneurs to take the reins.
Diversity among buyers is also on the rise. While more than 70% of sellers identify as NZ European, over 40% of buyers come from Indian, Chinese, or other non-European backgrounds. Migration trends are playing a role, with many newcomers seeing small business ownership as a pathway to stability and financial growth.”, Franchise New Zealand magazine, November 20, 2025
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United Kingdom
“UK growth slows after big fall in car production – Growth in the UK economy slowed to 0.1% in the July-to-September period, official figures show, as car production slumped. The Office for National Statistics said there had been a “marked” fall in car production in September as a result of the cyber-attack on Jaguar Land Rover. But even when this is taken out, other sectors of the economy showed weak growth.”, BBC, November 13, 2025
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United States
“US Economy 2026 Outlook From Economists – Modest growth with easing inflation and policy shifts. Economists expect the U.S. economy to navigate 2026 with modest growth, cooling but still above-target inflation, and a gradual easing of interest rates. Baseline expectations center on real GDP growth in the 1.7% to 1.9% range in 2026 (with some outlooks nearer 2.0%), inflation easing toward roughly 2.5% to 3.0%, and a Federal funds rate drifting to around 3.25% to 3.5% by mid-2026. The labor market is set to cool, with unemployment edging toward roughly 4.4% or higher, consumer spending slowing before re-accelerating late in the year, tariffs sustaining price pressures and squeezing margins, AI investment providing a supportive tailwind, and commercial real estate fundamentals gradually improving.”, Grey Journal, November 12, 2025
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“US Consumer Sentiment Nears Record Low – As far as Americans are concerned, the future of their wallets is looking glum. With inflation having hit 3% and unemployment rising to 4.4%, the third part of the troubled trifecta, US consumer sentiment, has fallen to one of the lowest levels on record. The final November sentiment index dropped to 51 from 53.6 in October, according to the University of Michigan. Views of personal finances were the dimmest since 2009. Data from the survey along with studies by private companies have become more useful of late, as federal agencies once renown for their “gold standard” in economic data have become unreliable.”, Bloomberg, November 21, 2025
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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification
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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News
“Will restaurants see more M&A and IPO activity next year? Next year may be marked by a high volume of deals for both high-performing growth concepts and distressed assets, as challenger brands look for capital and ailing systems seek turnarounds. Despite consumer pullback and macroeconomic uncertainty, 2025 turned out to be a major year for restaurant deal activity. Looking ahead to 2026, experts at the Restaurant Finance and Development Conference say the pace of deals might continue as high-performing brands seek fresh capital, underperformers look for turnaround sponsors and private equity eyes franchisees.”, Restaurant Dive, November 14, 2025
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“Is Your Emerging Restaurant Concept Ready to Go Global? Some brands spend decades perfecting their model before opening in a new country. Others find themselves faced with the question much sooner: Are we ready to go global? There’s no single formula for the right time. For some, it’s 30 years in. For others, it’s five. The better question is what signals tell you your brand is mature enough to thrive abroad. Here’s what every emerging restaurant brand should consider before taking the leap.”, Franchising.com, November 14, 2025. This article is authored by Carolyne Canady, the chief development officer with Dave’s Hot Chicken.
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“Breaking Out of the States: Expanding a Franchise into the U.K. and Europe – For decades, the United States has been the birthplace of some of the world’s most recognizable franchises. While America is fertile ground for franchising success, ambitious brands often face a crucial next step: international expansion. Among the most attractive destinations? The United Kingdom and Europe. For many franchises, taking the leap across the pond to establish a presence in the U.K. and Europe has been a strategic move driven by careful research, market evaluation, and an understanding of the growing gig economy and real estate landscape. Here are some of the top lessons franchises need to know before expanding into the U.K. and Europe.”, Franchising.com, November 14, 2025. This article is authored by Brian Kelley, the CEO and President of Phenix Salon Suites.
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“Luckin Coffee responds to questions about relisting on the US main board – On November 12, according to multiple media reports, Luckin Coffee CEO Guo Jinyi stated at an event in Xiamen that Luckin is actively promoting its relisting on the US main board. Once the listing is completed, it will help make Xiamen a more attractive global business and investment destination. In response, Luckin Coffee officially stated that it will continue to monitor the US capital market, but the company currently has no definite timetable for returning to the main board listing. Luckin Coffee’s primary task at this stage remains implementing its business strategy and focusing on development.”, Security Times Website (China), November 13, 2025. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
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“Krispy Kreme® Continues Global Expansion – Iconic doughnut brand opens first shop in Spain with more locations planned through a minority interest joint venture with Glaseados Originales S.L. International expansion continues with new shops in Brazil and first location in Uzbekistan expected to open before the end of 2025.”, Business Wire, October 15, 2025
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“Purpose Brands Announces Grand Opening of First Anytime Fitness Club in Dubai – Coinciding with Dubai Fitness Challenge Wellness Campaign. With the addition of the UAE, Anytime Fitness clubs now operate in 49 countries and territories around the world, with access to all locations a key benefit for the 5 million Anytime Fitness members worldwide. The UAE also marks expansion of the brand across the Middle East, joining Qatar and Kuwait, with additional countries to be announced.”, PR Newswire, October 23, 2025
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“Captain D’s Splashes Down in the UK in October – Iconic American seafood brand debuts refreshed design and UK-tailored menu at Westwood Cross Shopping Centre. The launch marks the start of an exciting new chapter for Captain D’s as the brand brings its refreshed restaurant design, UK-tailored menu, and international expansion strategy to life. This opening is part of a 20-unit master franchise agreement with local partner CD’s Holdings.”, Franchising.com, October 10, 2025
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“Great American Cookies and Marble Slab Creamery Build on Global Growth with Development Deal in Iraq – FAT (Fresh. Authentic. Tasty.) Brands Inc., parent company of Great American Cookies, Marble Slab Creamery, and 16 other restaurant concepts, has announced a new development deal to open 10 co-branded Great American Cookies and Marble Slab Creamery stores across Iraq over the next five years in partnership with Eric Wilson, a 27-year U.S. military veteran who served in Iraq.”, FAT Brands, October 22, 2025
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“KFC is not afraid of growing chicken competition – Company executives believe that increasing competition from other chicken chains can keep them on their toes internationally and help them get better back home in the U.S. More than any other protein, chicken is soaring in restaurants. Burger brands are adding chicken to their menus. New concepts are emerging and exploding all the time. Internationally, U.S. chicken chains are increasingly eyeing international expansion. Chicken sales worldwide grew 9% in 2024, according to Technomic, compared with 1.4% for burgers. Religious groups generally do not have objections to chicken, which makes it a relatively easy cuisine to expand in other markets.”, Restaurant Business, November 19, 2025
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
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William “Bill” Edwards: CEO & Global Trade Advisor “Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global”. With five decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service global management consultant since 2001 helping 40+ franchisors expand into new countries. Bill knows how to turn the challenges in taking a brand global into opportunities.
For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries successfully. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
And download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business, used by many companies for strategic planning, at this link:
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