Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 153, Tuesday, February 3, 2026
“Global commerce is being reshaped by both opportunity and friction”
Welcome to the 153rd Edition of the Biweekly Global Business Update – The global business environment continues to reset—quietly in some places, forcefully in others. Economic optimism is returning in parts of Asia and emerging markets, even as uncertainty lingers across North America and Europe. Capital is shifting, currencies are moving, and long-standing trade patterns are being rewritten in real time.
In this wide ranging issue we look at: global economic optimism, the movement of top economies up and down the ranking over time, where the world’s population is today, Europe and the AI race, wind and solar pull ahead of oil and gas in the European Union, the fast rise of copper prices, US container shipment changes. energy issues in Canada and China, uneven economic growth in the European Union, Poland entering the global top 10 economies, London as the leading world startup capital outside the USA, America’s top trading partners and the decline of US consumer confidence
Global franchise leaders continue to prioritize unit-level economics, operational efficiency, and disciplined expansion as the foundation for sustainable growth. At the same time, rising debt burdens and evolving regulatory frameworks underscore the importance of capital discipline and governance as brands expand internationally.
This edition’s book review highlights: “The Science of Scaling: Grow Your Business Bigger and Faster Than You Think Possible“ by Dr. Benjamin Hardy and Blake Erickson. This book challenges one of the most common myths in business—that growth is primarily about working harder or expanding incrementally. Instead, Hardy and Erickson argue that meaningful scale comes from strategic leverage, identity shifts, and systems thinking, not effort alone. Drawing on behavioral psychology, case studies, and performance science, the book reframes scaling as a process of elimination, focus, and multiplication, rather than accumulation.
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To receive our biweekly newsletter by email every other Tuesday, click here https://insider.edwardsglobal.com
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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. We do not get involved with or report on politics!
PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896
Link to our current and past newsletters: https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“Technology moves at digital speed; regulation moves at political speed. Global leaders must manage both.”, Christine Lagarde
“AI is not merely a tool for efficiency, but a transformative force reshaping workforce dynamic.”, Hussain Sajwani, UAE business leader
“Trade is changing……global commerce is being reshaped by both opportunity and friction.”, World Economic Forum trade insights from Davos 2026
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Highlights in issue #153:
How Major Economies Have Shifted Since 2000
America’s Top Trading Partners in 2025
US Container Growth Vanishes With World Trade Flows ‘Moving On’
US Consumer Outlook at Its Darkest in 12 Years
Franchise Global News Section: Chili’s®, Fat Brands, Starbucks®, YUM Brands and Wingstop®
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Please join me and 200+ other Southern California senior executives at the February 12th ReINVENT SUMMIT at the University of California, Irvine to learn the latest business trends across many diverse business sectors that can help you be more successful in 2026.
I will be interviewing Dr. Noel Hacegaba, CEO of the Port Of Long Beach, on his view of global trade going forward. Register to attend the afternoon of Thursday, February 12th at the Beall Center for Innovation at UCI at this link:
https://enpinstitute.com/event/emerge-26/
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“Economic optimism returns – Executives around the globe have shown increased optimism about their domestic economies compared with just a few months earlier, according to a December 2025 McKinsey survey. Senior Partner Sven Smit and coauthors note that survey respondents in Greater China and India remain the most optimistic, with more than two-thirds in each region expecting economic conditions to improve in the next six months. Although sentiment has also brightened in North America and Europe, a significant share of executives in those regions still anticipate that conditions may worsen.”, McKinsey & Co., January 29, 2026
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“How Major Economies Have Shifted Since 2000 – This graphic shows the top economies by GDP over the past quarter century, based on data from the International Monetary Fund. America has long held the title as the world’s largest economy, rising from a GDP of $10.3 trillion in 2000 to $30.6 trillion in 2025. China emerged as the second-biggest economy in 2010, with its economy growing by a factor of nearly 17 since 2000. The global balance of power looks very different than it did 25 years ago. In 2000, Japan was the world’s second-largest economy and China was only in sixth place. Since then, the global hierarchy has shifted dramatically, driven by the rapid rise of China and India.”, Visual Capitalist and the IMF, January 19, 2026
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“Emerging markets make roaring start to 2026 as dollar slides – Stocks, bonds and currencies have all soared as dollar weakness puts focus on fundamentals. ‘Fundamentals in emerging markets have been improving for a while but it took the weak dollar for global investors to pay attention,’ said David Hauner, head of global emerging markets fixed-income strategy at Bank of America. Many emerging-market central banks have boosted interest rates well above inflation in recent years in an attempt to retain capital that was being enticed away by the rise in US interest rates since 2022, which helped drive a decade-long strengthening in the dollar. In comparison, the MSCI World index of advanced economy stocks is up 2.8 per cent this year, while the S&P 500 index of US blue-chip stocks is up 1.6 per cent.”, The Financial Times, January 29, 2026
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“The Entirety of the World’s 8.2 Billion Population in One Chart – The global population surpassed 8.2 billion in 2025, up from 8.0 billion in 2022. India drove nearly a quarter of global population growth over the period, with its population now close to 1.5 billion. After reaching 1 billion people in 1804, the world’s population has expanded eightfold over roughly 200 years. Since 2022, the global population has increased by more than 200 million despite widespread declines in birth rates. While the populations of China and Brazil have shrunk, India and Nigeria have been significant drivers of overall population growth.”, Visual Capitalist and the UN Statistics Division, January 25, 2026
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“Europe can still win the other AI race – Use of the technology is picking up pace. From cloud-computing to 5g, European companies have tended to be slow in adopting new technologies. Many feared that the same would happen with the most recent wave of so-called generative ai. The opportunity is big. Europe has a large industrial base and it is hunting for ways to boost economic growth. Already Europeans as individuals are among the most enthusiastic adopters of generative ai. According to research from Microsoft, a software giant, 32% of them use the technology, based on a population-weighted average of European countries, compared with 28% of Americans and 16% of Chinese.”, Economist, January 22, 2206
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes, Tariffs & Trade Issues
“Dollar sinks to 4-month low and gold soars past $5,000 as yen leaps – Japanese currency climbs sharply on speculation of joint US-Japan market intervention, adding to pressure on greenback. The dollar, which analysts said was also suffering from concerns over a potential US government shutdown, fell 0.6 per cent on Monday against a broader group of major currencies, extending the losses sparked by last week’s Greenland crisis. As US risks pushed investors out of the dollar, they sought safety in precious metals, sending gold to an all-time high and silver to its highest level since 2008.”, The Financial Times, January 25, 2026
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“In the EU, wind and solar surpass fossil fuels for first time – The watershed moment comes as the region looks to prioritize clean, domestic energy sources over dirty coal or imported natural gas. In 2025, wind and solar produced more electrons for the EU than fossil fuels did, per a new Ember report — the first time that’s ever happened over the course of an entire year. Though wind still produces more power for the EU than solar does, it was the blistering growth of the latter that drove last year’s achievement. Last year, coal accounted for just 9.2% of the region’s electricity, and several EU nations have already phased it out entirely or committed to doing so before 2030.”, Canary Media, January 30, 2026
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“Copper Billionaires’ Fortunes Double as Metal Prices Soar – The wealth of Latin America’s two richest copper billionaires has doubled over the past year, fueled by record-setting prices for copper. German Larrea and Iris Fontbona have generated $64 billion in new wealth in the past year, with Larrea’s fortune jumping to $71.6 billion and Fontbona’s net worth increasing 91% to $55.6 billion. Copper prices have soared due to shipments flowing into US warehouses, disruptions to copper supplies, and favorable longer-term factors, including the need for more cables for data centers, electric vehicles, and electronics. Copper supplies have been further disrupted by a string of incidents at major mines around the world, while a weakening dollar and lower interest rates create additional support for commodities. A normalization of supply disruptions could see prices retreat, but underpinning the market are favorable longer-term factors.”, Bloomberg, January 29, 2026
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“US Container Growth Vanishes With World Trade Flows ‘Moving On’ – US container imports ended 2025 in a four-month skid that’s likely to lengthen this year as trade shifts to other economies to avoid President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Inbound volumes in December dropped 6.4% from a year earlier to 1.9 million 20-foot container units, after a 5.7% slide the previous month. The result is an upheaval in international commerce that ING Groep NV economists called “a global recalibration and the start of a new era” with the US lagging much of the world in growth rates for container shipping. Trump has used import taxes — actual or threatened — as leverage against trading partners, hoping to reduce the US trade deficit and increase domestic production. In response, major economies such as China and the European Union are seeking ways to reduce their reliance on the American market, and signing trade deals with other countries or blocs.”, Bloomberg, January 31, 2026
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Book Review
“The Science of Scaling: Grow Your Business Bigger and Faster Than You Think Possible” by Dr. Benjamin Hardy and Blake Erickson challenges one of the most common myths in business: that growth is primarily about working harder or expanding incrementally. Instead, the authors argue that meaningful scale comes from strategic leverage, identity shifts, and systems thinking, not effort alone. Drawing on behavioral psychology, case studies, and performance science, the book reframes scaling as a process of elimination, focus, and multiplication, rather than accumulation.
For leaders operating across borders, the message is particularly relevant. Global growth amplifies complexity, and the authors are clear: without clarity of vision, disciplined priorities, and the right partnerships, scale actually destroys value. The book’s strength lies in its insistence that leaders must first scale themselves—their decision-making, time allocation, and tolerance for change—before attempting to scale organizations.
The Science of Scaling offers a mindset and framework that translates well to franchising, licensing, and cross-border expansion.
5 Takeaways for Global Business Leaders
- Scale follows focus, not geography
- Eliminate before you expand
- Leverage partnerships, not just capital
- Systems beat heroics at scale
- Leadership identity must evolve before the business can
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Country & Regional Updates
Canada
“Canada shipped a record share of oil to non-U.S. countries in November – The share of Canada’s crude petroleum flowing to countries other than the United States hit an all-time high in November, topping the previous month’s record, as the Trans Mountain pipeline boosted Canada’s trade diversification efforts. But while the latest trade numbers from Statistics Canada show the pivot away from the U.S. is working, the gains elsewhere have not been enough to make up for slumping demand from south of the border. Canada shipped 14.1 per cent of its crude to the rest of the world in November, with China alone accounting for 10 per cent of Canada’s total oil exports that month.”, The Globe and Mail, January 30, 2026
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China
“China Takes on Green Energy Gridlock With Direct Connections – Unlike most wind farms across China, the 500-megawatt facility run by Swan Electric Power in Sanmenxia in the central province of Henan does not feed electricity into the national grid. Rather, it delivers power through a dedicated transmission line into a self-operated distribution network, bypassing the state-run utility system to directly supply end users. This setup — known as a “green power direct connection” — is emerging as one of Beijing’s most closely watched experiments in fixing a growing imbalance that has emerged from China’s energy transition. The country has built renewable capacity faster than its grid can handle it, leading to widespread waste. The policy-backed direct connection model is expected to ease pressure on the grid, lower energy costs for factories, and create an outlet for projects that might otherwise sit idle.”, Caixin Global, January 23, 2026
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European Union
“Uneven Growth Continues to Plague Europe – Germany and France are lagging behind. Gross domestic product in the European Union grew 0.4 percent in the third quarter of 2025 relative to the previous quarter, demonstrating resilience in the face of immense challenges, including trade disputes with the U.S. and fierce competition from China. Denmark saw the highest rate of growth, driven by its pharmaceutical industry. However, growth across the Continent was again highly uneven. While less economically developed countries surged ahead (in Poland, for example, household consumption and rising consumer sentiment fueled increases in GDP and employment), key European heavyweights remain in limbo. In Germany, the EU’s traditional economic engine, unemployment reached a 12-year high, and political instability in France is also leaving its mark on growth. Additionally, Europe’s shift away from cheaper Russian energy has left it dependent on a limited number of costlier alternatives.”, Geopolitical Futures, January 30, 2026
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“What a Break With Europe Means for the American Economy – Europe is the U.S.’s biggest trading partner, largest investor and closest financial ally. The economies of the U.S. and Europe are intertwined. The European Union is the U.S.’s biggest trading partner—and Europe is the largest source of foreign direct investment in the U.S., with $3.6 trillion invested into the U.S. as of 2024. It goes the other way, too: U.S. companies make a fortune selling software, financial products and oil across the Atlantic. While the trans-Atlantic goods trade has grown more slowly since the 2007-09 recession, U.S. services exports have continued to expand rapidly. That includes financial, legal and insurance services, but increasingly centers on digital services and cloud computing provided by leading American tech companies such as Microsoft, Amazon.com, Google and International Business Machines. The European Union is the largest destination for U.S. services exports, which for the bloc totaled $294.7 billion in 2024.”, Wall Street Journal, January 19, 2026.
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Poland
Poland
“Poland’s Economy Set to Enter Global Top 20 Following Another Strong Year – Strong private consumption and sustained public investment helped the economy hit $1 trillion in 2025. The milestone, confirmed by data released Friday by the country’s statistics agency, likely lifted Poland into the world’s top 20 economies for 2025. It is expected to supplant Switzerland, which hasn’t yet released its end-of-year tally. Poland now sits right behind No. 19 Saudi Arabia’s $1.3 trillion economy. Three-and-a-half decades ago, under an isolated communist regime, the purchasing power of an average Pole—adjusted for local prices—was on par with Jamaica. Now, it’s higher than Japan. The European Commission expects Poland’s budget deficit to narrow to 6.3% of GDP in 2026.”, The Wall Street Journal, January 30, 2026
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United Kingdom
“How London became the rest of the world’s startup capital – Outside America, no other city comes close. London is one of the best places in the world to start a company. It has produced more unicorns ($1bn-plus startups) than Berlin, Paris and Tokyo combined. Their alumni are now spawning a second generation of firms. It is the world’s fourth-largest venture hub, according to Dealroom, a data provider. In 2025 its startups raised $17.7bn, behind only the Bay Area, New York and Los Angeles. Three main ingredients explain the city’s enduring success. The most important is talent. London is one of the world’s most diverse startup hubs. More than half of Britain’s fastest-growing startups were founded by immigrants. Capital is the third ingredient. London struggles to fund companies at later stages (hence the flight problems). But it excels at nourishing them early on and is beginning to attract more specialist investors for that crucial early stage.”, The Economist, January 26, 2026
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United States
“America’s Top Trading Partners in 2025 – This graphic shows America’s biggest trading partners in 2025 through October, based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau. U.S. bilateral trade reached $4.7 trillion between January and October 2025, in a volatile year for trade policy. The European Union accounted for 18.8% of all U.S. trade in the first 10 months of 2025, valued at $883.3 billion. China ranks as America’s fourth-largest trading partner, with U.S. imports declining 26.7%, given rising tensions. In August 2025, the U.S. and EU agreed to a framework that set a 15% tariff ceiling on most goods, while existing 50% U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum were left in place for all global trading partners. Mexico follows, with $731.2 billion in cross-border trade in 2025. After the U.S. announced tariffs on Mexican imports in February 2025, subsequent negotiations led to delays and partial exemptions. Ranking in third is Canada, with $606.7 billion in trade value.”, U.S. Census Bureau and Visual Capitalist, January 25, 2026
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“US Consumer Outlook at Its Darkest in 12 Years – US consumer confidence plummeted in January to the lowest level in 12 years on more pessimistic views from Americans worried about the nation’s economy, inflation and a weakening labor market. The gauge by the Conference Board decreased to 84.5, from an upwardly revised 94.2 last month, data out Tuesday showed. The figure was the lowest since May 2014 and fell short of all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. In write-in responses to the survey, consumers often mentioned prices of oil, gas and groceries, said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. Mentions of politics, the labor market and health insurance also rose.”, Bloomberg,
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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification
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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News
“How Franchise Economics Can Fuel YUM’s Next Growth Cycle – Yum! Brands is making franchise economics the core driver of unit growth and long-term value creation. KFC and Taco Bell grew system sales and restaurant margins despite inflation in labor and commodities. YUM is using scale, supply-chain leverage and the Byte platform to boost franchise productivity. Yum! Brands, Inc.’s next growth phase appears increasingly tied to a single, deliberate priority: improving franchise-level economics. Management has made it clear that unit expansion, margin durability and long-term value creation all hinge on how attractive the four-wall economics look for franchise partners. The strategy is already showing traction. Yum! Brands delivered solid system sales growth alongside expanding restaurant-level margins at both KFC and Taco Bell, despite inflationary headwinds in commodities and labor.”, Zacks, January 25, 2026
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“More of the same’ for Chili’s as sales soar again – The chain seems to have perfected a formula for growth in casual dining and shows no signs of letting up. Next up is a new chicken sandwich and remodeled restaurants. Same-store sales jumped 8.6% year over year for the three months ending Dec. 24, continuing a spectacular run since CEO Kevin Hochman arrived in 2022 with a plan to revive the Dallas-based casual-dining chain. The sales growth included a 4.4% price increase, 2.7% traffic growth and a 1.5% mix improvement. In an earnings call Wednesday, the company chalked up its ongoing momentum to the playbook Hochman put in place nearly four years ago: Improved food and operations backed by widespread, value-based marketing.”, Restaurant Business, January 28, 2026
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““Wingstop’s COO Revival: Raj Kapoor’s Rise Amid Expansion Push” – Wingstop reinstates COO role with Rajneesh Kapoor’s promotion, targeting ops amid 2025 sales dips and 475+ new units. Tech like Smart Kitchen drives efficiency as chain eyes 10,000 stores globally. Wingstop’s franchise-heavy model—98% franchised—relies on such efficiencies. Domestic average unit volumes hit $2.1 million in 2024, with pilots showing Smart Kitchen slashing ticket times nearly in half via AI-driven demand forecasting using over 300 variables like weather and sports schedules, as detailed by Restaurant Business Online.”, Web Pro News, January 25, 2026
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“Starbucks China Revenue Jumps Amid Restructuring Push – Starbucks China s revenue is projected to grow by 11 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025. The company’s China business saw comparable store sales grow 7% during the period after years of stagnation, driven by a 5% rise in comparable transactions and a 2% jump in average ticket, the report said. In November, Starbucks announced a deal to form a joint venture (JV) with private equity firm Boyu Capital to operate its retail business in China, with the transaction expected to close in the spring, subject to regulatory approvals. Overall, Starbucks posted total revenue of $9.9 billion for the quarter, a 5.5% increase, while net income dropped 62.4% to $293 million. However, the international segment saw a 19% rise in operating income, helped by cost reductions after the company classified its China retail assets as held-for-sale and ceased related depreciation and amortization.”, Caixing Global, January 29, 2026. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
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“Is UK franchising law about to change? Key takeaways for businesses. The UK government may soon take a closer look at the legislative framework governing franchising relationships, an area that, unlike many other jurisdictions, currently operates without a dedicated statutory framework, relying instead on contract law principles and voluntary codes. The result is a pronounced power imbalance between franchisors and individual operators. For now, franchising in the UK continues to rely on contract law and voluntary industry codes. However, if the government proceeds with reforms, we could see new requirements emerge around disclosure, fair‑dealing standards and more accessible arbitration routes.”, Lexology, January 26, 2026
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“Fat Brands, burdened with heavy debt, declares bankruptcy – The owner of Fazoli’s, Round Table Pizza and several other brands is seeking Chapter 11 debt protection. The company owes $1.45 billion in securitized debt, most of which is through a series of whole business securitizations (WBS) taken out in 2020 and 2021 to fund several acquisitions. Yet those securitizations left the company without enough funds to cover its costs, effectively ‘starving the business,’ according to a court filing this week. Fat Brands started out as Fatburger, owned by Wiederhorn, until 2017 when the company acquired Ponderosa and Bonanza and went public that year through a so-called mini-IPO. It mostly acquired small brands at super-low prices until 2020, when it started using a series of securitization financings to acquire some $900 million worth of restaurant chains. It acquired Johnny Rockets and Round Table Pizza owner Global Franchise Group, along with Fazoli’s and Twin Peaks, and later Nestle Toll House Café and Smokey Bones. Fat Brands’ various restaurant chains have 2,200 locations and 7,500 locations.”, Restaurant Business, January 27, 2026
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
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William “Bill” Edwards: CEO & Global Trade Advisor “Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global”. With five decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service global management consultant since 2001 helping 40+ franchisors expand into new countries. Bill knows how to turn the challenges in taking a brand global into opportunities.
For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries successfully. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
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