Biweekly Global Business Update Newsletter, Issue 157, Tuesday, March 31, 2026
“The increase of disorder creates the demand for order.”
Welcome to the 157th Edition of the Biweekly Global Business Update – This issue updates our readers on oil import dependency by country, Internet freedom around the world, global AI adoption, global life expectancy, Strait of Hormuz, global LNG shipments, global fertilizer shipments, gold’s fall in 2026, global M&A deals, global jet fuel soars, surging Africa fuel imports, Asis crude oil imports, Canada and Cuba economic challenges, the USA’s competitive edge and where the USA exports. A special book review as always and franchise sector news about Jollibee®, Nothing Bundt Cakes®, Red Lobster® and Krispy Kreme®.
This edition’s book review highlights: “Story Business: Why Stories Rule the World and How They Can Reinvent Your Business” by Gavin McMahon. In Story Business, Gavin McMahon makes a compelling—and highly practical—argument that many global executives still underestimate: the companies that win are not always those with the best strategies, but those that tell the best stories.
A special letter to my 4,435 Current Subscribers:
For 6 years since the initial issue in March 2020, I have published this Bi-weekly Global Business Update Newsletter, sharing curated global intelligence with global business leaders who need to understand how international events affect their companies. Today marks my 157th edition. Thank you for being a subscriber!
In today’s environment of tariffs, geopolitical conflict, and rapidly shifting global alliances, timely global intelligence is not optional for internationally minded companies. It is essential. Given what the world is experiencing in global trade as I write this edition, my newsletter is far timelier than I thought would be when it started in the middle of COVID 6 years ago this month.
Every two weeks I review dozens of international sources and combine them with my own analysis of global trade, geopolitics, franchising, and economic trends. I also review a different book for each issue with takeaways for global businesspeople. The goal has always been straightforward: help executives see what is really happening around the world before it impacts their business. Not just what is on the evening news.
Over the past 156 editions, this newsletter has grown to more than 4,400 readers worldwide and is regularly cited and summarized by industry publications and senior international executives.
However, producing a high-quality global briefing requires a significant investment of time – 20-30 hours per edition – intense research, and access to numerous paid international information sources. After many years of publishing the newsletter as a complimentary resource, I will be moving the Bi-weekly Global Business Update Newsletter to a subscription model on Substack beginning with the 158th edition on April 14th.
For US$10 per month or US$100/year, subscribers will receive:
- 26 Bi-weekly Global Business Update Newsletter issues per year
- A quarterly proprietary Global Business Trends Report with analysis and forward-looking insights for 40 countries
- Continued access to the curated global intelligence many of you have relied on for 6 years
A brief word of background for those who may be newer readers: I have spent more than five decades working internationally, living in China, the Czech Republic, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, and Turkey, and directing projects across many business sectors in more than 50 countries. I have developed and maintain an extensive networks of senior contacts. Today I serve as CEO and Global Advisor at Edwards Global Services and have helped over 50 companies expand into international markets. The perspective in this newsletter comes directly from that real-world experience working in global markets.
If the Bi-weekly Global Business Update Newsletter has helped you stay informed about global business and geopolitical trends, I hope you will consider becoming one of the founding subscribers who ensures its continuation.
Subscribe here: https://geowizard.substack.com/subscribe
Thank you for reading my newsletter and for your continued interest in using it to successfully navigate the ‘excessively interesting’ global business landscape we live in today.
Best regards,
William (Bill) Edwards
CEO & Global Business Advisor
Edwards Global Services, Inc.
bedwards@edwardsglobal.com
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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. We do not get involved with or report on politics!
PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.
Sunce March 2020, this newsletter has been assembled, edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA and the EGS GlobalTeam™ in several countries. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896
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Here is a link to our current and past newsletters: https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“The increase of disorder creates the demand for order.”, Adlai Stevenson
“Even if you are on the right track, you’ll get run over if you just sit there.”, Will Rogers
“Do what you can, with what you have, where you are”, President Theodore Roosevelt
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Highlights in issue #157:
The World’s Energy Safety Net Is Buckling
Freedom On The Internet Around The World
Six breakthrough business models reshaping (Asian) growth
Iran Conflict Sparks Global Rush For Critical Fertilizers
Gold’s Safe-Haven Status Is Failing Its Biggest Test
The Americas lead global trade deals
Franchise Global News Update Section: Jollibee®, Krispy Kreme®, Nothing Bundt Cakes® and Red Lobster®
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
The chart shows the percentage of oil that is imported by these countries. This analysis is based on data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and Eurostat, March 20, 2026
Editor’s Note: Going forward there will be more of this basic research in the Edwards Biweekly Global Business Update Newsletter. This research is from several online data sources.
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“Freedom On The Internet Around The World – Iceland Tops Global Internet Freedom; China, Myanmar Rank Lowest. The Internet Freedom Index measures how easily people can speak, access information, and share opinions online without heavy censorship, surveillance, or interference from state or non-state actors……“Freedom on the Net” tracks political and civil liberties in 70 countries, measuring internet freedom through classifications of “Free”, “Partly Free”, or “Not Free”. China and Myanmar are the most restricted, scoring 9/100 with no improvement from last year. South Korea is partly free at 65 and on a downward trend. India shows an upward climb at 51, indicating a recent improvement in digital rights.”, Visual Capitalist & Freedom House, March 17, 2026
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This analysis is based on data from Stanford’s AI Index, Microsoft’s global adoption studies, and McKinsey’s enterprise surveys. This analysis is focused on surveys of large enterprise companies in each country, March 28
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“Comparing Life Expectancy in Major Economies – This graphic shows life expectancy by country across the world’s 30 largest economies, based on data from the United Nations. GDP data was drawn from the International Monetary Fund. Japan has the highest life expectancy among the world’s largest economies, at 85 years. Indonesia, ranked 17th globally by GDP in 2025, has the lowest life expectancy at 72 years.”, Visual Capitalist and the United Nations and the IMF, January 27, 2026
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“The world’s most unaffordable housing is not where you think – Asia’s great cities will founder without more reasonably priced homes. Cities in developing countries such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines are gaining hundreds of millions of people. This urbanisation is only getting started. In South Asia, for example, barely 35% of the population is urban, compared with 80% in North America. Yet problems in Asia’s great metropolises are mounting. The likes of Delhi, Jakarta and Manila suffer from awful pollution, traffic and crime. The greatest challenge is a shortage of decent and affordable housing.”, The Economist, March 25, 2026
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes, Tariffs & Trade Issues
“EU Sees Risk of Stagflation Shock for Europe From Iran War – The European Union economy is at danger of enduring low growth combined with high inflation because of the war in the Middle East, according to Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis. A shorter conflict would push up inflation by 1 percentage points this year, while a more severe scenario could add as much as 1.5 percentage points, according to Dombrovskis and people familiar with the matter. The European Commission “stands ready to work closely with member states to design policy measures at national level to mitigate impact of high energy prices,” Dombrovskis said. European capitals have already started to downgrade their forecasts due to the fallout from the war and the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”, Bloomberg, March 27, 2026
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“The World’s Energy Safety Net Is Buckling – The Iran war has hit every node in the supply chain for liquefied natural gas. The war in Iran has fractured every node of the regional LNG supply chain. Iranian strikes on Qatar, one of the world’s top LNG producers, have damaged its Ras Laffan facility, knocking out some 17% of its capacity for up to five years, and delayed the country’s massive expansion plans. Meanwhile, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which usually carries around a fifth of global LNG, is paralyzed.”, The Wall Street Journal, March 25, 2026
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“Iran Conflict Sparks Global Rush For Critical Fertilizers – A third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, while gas from the region is crucial to production of nutrients for global agriculture. The US and Israel’s attacks on Iran and Tehran’s retaliation have disrupted supplies of fertilizer, causing farmers worldwide to rush to secure critical nutrients. The conflict has come at a sensitive moment for global agriculture, with the cost of fertilizers already high and farmers in the northern hemisphere about to begin fertilizing their fields. If the disruption continues, it could add to inflationary pressures and affect output of critical crops, with consumers worldwide likely to feel the impact, particularly in countries in the global south.”, Bloomberg, March 6, 2026
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“Gold’s Safe-Haven Status Is Failing Its Biggest Test – The war in the Middle East has revealed that gold isn’t much of a haven. It’s almost exactly the opposite. The metal has lost about a fifth of its value since it surged to an all-time high in late January. The simplest explanation of this selloff then, as Gavekal’s Charles Gave and Louis-Vincent Gave note, is that gold was massively overbought in the lead-up to the war. In a period of market dislocation, overbought assets get hurt; people wanted to take profits, of which there were many in gold.”, Bloomberg, March 24, 2026
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“Ships forgo cargo to carry fuel as Iran war sends prices soaring – Ships have been forgoing cargo in order to take shipping fuel to critical ports, as shortages caused by strikes in the Gulf pile almost $5bn of extra costs on the industry since the Iran war began. While fuel oil costs have come down from a peak of $1,130 a tonne on March 9 to $796 on March 25, they are still about 55 per cent higher than at the end of February, according to Argus. Some container ships are also filling up their bunker tanks more than usual as a way of transporting fuel.”, The Financial Times, March 26, 2026
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“The Americas lead global trade deals – After dealmaking slowed momentarily in early 2025, global M&A activity quickly assumed a grand scale—delivering big gains for the year. All this week, we explore M&A trends, from megadeals to cross-regional trading and more. The Americas led cross-regional trade deals in 2025, accounting for 16 of the world’s 20 largest deals. Rounds of US-led tariffs, softer regulations, and a large addressable market contributed to net inflows to the Americas increasing by 70 percent, to (US)$149 billion.”, McKinsey & Co., March 26, 2026
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Global & Regional Travel News
“Asia’s Air Travel Crisis Risks Spreading on Iran War’s Jet Fuel Squeeze – The aviation crisis in Asia is threatening to intensify and spread to Europe and beyond due to energy turmoil caused by the Iran war. Airlines are canceling flights as jet fuel prices surge to record highs, with some costs doubling since the start of the year. The European Union and the UK could be weeks away from similar conditions, and even the US is vulnerable to supply shocks, particularly in regions reliant on Asian supply.”, Bloomberg, March 27, 2026
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Book Review
“Story Business: Why Stories Rule the World and How They Can Reinvent Your Business” by Gavin McMahon. In Story Business, Gavin McMahon makes a compelling—and highly practical—argument that many global executives still underestimate: the companies that win are not always those with the best strategies, but those that tell the best stories.
Drawing on examples ranging from early human history to modern global corporations, McMahon shows that storytelling is not simply a marketing tool—it is a core business capability. Stories shape how customers perceive value, how employees align behind strategy, and how leaders drive change across organizations. Ideas alone are not enough; they must be framed in a way that people can understand, remember and act upon.
What makes this book particularly relevant for today’s global business environment is its emphasis on execution. McMahon outlines six key storytelling domains—value, product, brand, sales, leadership and culture—providing a framework that can be applied across international markets and diverse teams.
For global business leaders navigating increasingly complex and fragmented markets, the message is clear: data informs decisions, but stories drive action. In a world shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, cultural differences and digital noise, the ability to communicate a clear, compelling narrative may be one of the most underutilized competitive advantages available.
Key Takeaways for Global Businesspeople
- The best story—not the best idea—often wins in global markets
- Storytelling is a leadership tool, not just a marketing function
- Clear narratives align teams across cultures and geographies
- Customers buy meaning and identity, not just products
- In uncertain environments, stories provide clarity and direction
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Country & Regional Updates
Africa
“Iran War Ignites African Race to Keep Gas Pumps Flowing – Adding to the grim outlook are the scores of shut refineries from Mombasa and Lusaka to Durban. The Persian Gulf was once a dependable, steady and conveniently located fuel supplier to meet Africa’s steadily rising demand. Most of the diesel that’s shipped out of the Strait of Hormuz usually headed to the continent. The US-Israel strikes on Iran have changed all that — effectively closing the crucial maritime chokepoint and leaving a gigantic fuel hole for developing nations to fill. The war has triggered a scramble by African nations to find new sources of petroleum, putting strained budget and fragile economic recoveries at risk. Many are merely weeks away from pumps running dry, with bigger and more powerful economies ahead in the queue.”, Bloomberg, March 18, 2026
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Asia
“Why Asia Hopes for a Short Mideast War – The conflict has already exposed structural vulnerabilities that can’t be fixed easily. The war in Iran has already had far-reaching consequences in the Asia-Pacific. The region is highly dependent on Middle Eastern oil, liquefied natural gas and petrochemicals, so the closure of the Strait of Hormuz immediately triggered inflationary pressure, supply chain disruptions and strategic uncertainty. In Southeast Asia, the impact of the war is widespread but uneven, reflecting significant differences in economic structure, energy dependencies and political priorities among ASEAN member states. Recent estimates suggest that around 60-70 percent of ASEAN’s crude oil imports originate from the Middle East, a substantial share of which transit the Strait of Hormuz.”, Geopolitical Futures, March 18, 2026
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Canada
“Canada’s economy is falling even further behind the U.S. by these key measures – The years-long boom in oil and other commodity prices that ended in spectacular fashion last decade masked how badly Canada’s weak labour productivity has weighed down the country’s economy since the late 1990s, a new report by Statistics Canada found. Yet since the turn of the millennium, Canada’s productivity gap with the U.S. has steadily widened, with relative productivity tumbling by 26 per cent over that time, according to the report.”, The Globe and Mail, March 26, 2026
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Cuba
“Cuba’s Energy Crisis – The U.S. has an interest in supporting political unrest on the island. Cuba’s energy crisis has been going on for years but is now taking on a geopolitical dimension. The country’s electricity infrastructure has two major vulnerabilities: fuel supply and physical maintenance. Since the U.S. deposed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in early January, Cuba has stopped receiving oil supplies from Caracas. Only Mexico and Russia have ventured to step in and provide Havana with oil. Cuba’s dilapidated electrical system also factors into the frequent, large-scale power outages experienced on the island.”, Geopolitical Futures, March 20, 2026
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United States
“At 250, sustaining America’s competitive edge – At 250 years old, the United States is the world’s most competitive economy. It generates 26 percent of global GDP and is home to 59 of the world’s top 100 firms. In the past several years, accelerating US productivity growth and announced foreign direct investment inflows have sharpened its edge over other advanced economies. Current generations owe it to future ones to address deteriorating fiscal health, eroding infrastructure, declining educational achievement, fading manufacturing know-how, and sustained disparities in income and wealth. Collective effort from American individuals, business, and government can ensure energy abundance, an infrastructure backbone, education that builds minds and skills to match new technology, and the financial strength to pay for it all. The prize is continued growth, national economic security, and economic opportunity for everyone.”, McKinsey & Co., March 9, 2026
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“U.S. Exports Set A Record But Mexico And Canada Not As Dominant – Mexico and Canada accounted for 30.65% of all U.S. exports in 2025, the lowest percentage since 1996 for the top two buyers of U.S. goods and USMCA partners, my analysis of Census Bureau data shows.”, Forbes, March 18, 2026. Article by Ken Roberts, Forbes Contributor.
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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification
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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News
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“Fast-growing Nothing Bundt Cakes is sold to KKR – The bundt cake chain, which is approaching $1 billion in system sales, is being sold at a reported value of $2 billion. It’s a rare exit for the private-equity firm Roark Capital. Dena Tripp and Debbie Schetz founded the concept in 1997 in Las Vegas based on the bundt cake, which itself is based on a German cake called the Gugelhopf. Nothing Bundt Cakes grew to 390 locations when Roark acquired the chain in 2021. The chain is mostly franchised. At the end of 2024 the chain operated 643 locations, up nearly 19% compared with the previous year, and meaning the brand has nearly doubled since Roark’s acquisition. A typical location makes about $1.4 million in revenue per year, according to Restaurant Business sister company Technomic.”, Restaurant Business, March 25, 2026
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“Red Lobster’s Last Gasp – The new CEO is pitching a turnaround story. Behind the scenes, the restaurant chain is treading water. Red Lobster, founded in 1968, once defined American casual dining, with more than 700 restaurants in the US and abroad at its peak. Since the early 2000s, an explosion of alternatives, including Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. and other fast-casual companies, has eroded its market share, along with those of its peers like TGI Friday’s. Wall Street pressure pushed Red Lobster’s longtime parent, Darden Restaurants Inc., to sell the chain; over the next decade it was passed around to various owners and investors, getting stripped of its quality and real estate along the way. The pandemic followed, which roiled the restaurant industry. Onerous real estate arrangements mean roughly 100 chronically unprofitable restaurants are draining any profit the rest of the chain brings in.”, Bloomberg, March 24, 2026
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“Krispy Kreme’s latest move to shed debt: Deals in Japan and US worth $160 million – As part of a corporate turnaround strategy, Krispy Kreme completed two major refranchising deals to drive “sustainable, profitable growth,” the company announced Tuesday. WKS Restaurant Group (Western U.S. Joint Venture) increased its ownership stake in the Western U.S. joint venture from 45% to 80%. Krispy Kreme received approximately $90 million, including $50 million in cash at closing. The joint venture added 23 former company-operated shops in California and Hawaii and plans to expand its fresh delivery network over the next several years. Unison Capital acquired Krispy Kreme’s operations in Japan on March 2 with nearly $70 million in cash. Last year, about 75% of Krispy Kreme’s sales were from company-operated locations…..Krispy Kreme aims to have franchisees generate nearly 50% of systemwide sales starting in fiscal 2027 through refranchising efforts, the report said.”, The Herald Online, March 26, 2026
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“The Philippines loves Jollibee. Overseas Filipinos love it even more – In the Philippines, where Jollibee operates over 1,000 outlets and is the dominant fast-food chain, it is simply part of the furniture. Overseas, it is something closer to a lifeline. There are now more than 80 Jollibee outlets across the US, with the very first opening in Daly City, California, in 1998. Worldwide, Jollibee operates over 1,600 stores in 17 countries – and its parent group runs more than 10,000 outlets in 33 countries through acquisitions including Tim Ho Wan, Smashburger and The Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf.”, The South China Morning Post, March 29, 2026
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
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William “Bill” Edwards: CEO & Global Trade Advisor “Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global”. With five decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service global management consultant since 2001 helping 40+ franchisors expand into new countries. Bill knows how to turn the challenges in taking a brand global into opportunities.
For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries successfully. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
And download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business, used by many companies for strategic planning, at this link:
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