Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 115, Tuesday, August 20, 2024

Commentary about the 115^th Issue: Big tech is beginning to use more electricity than whole countries. How the world’s stock markets and the Magnificent 7 have changed in value over time.  generative AI (gen AI) is here to stay, and its business potential is massive. Unexpectedly rapid declines in fertility suggest the population will peak this century.  Country GDPs are growing…overall. China is now the world leader in coffee shops….really!!! US Retail Sales Chugging Along. Indonesian fishermen use AI to increase their catches. Starbucks replaces it CEO with a work from home CEO 1,000 miles away. ure hold for India? And Texas’ own Dickey’s Barbecue Pit is ‘hot’ in Lahore, Pakistan.

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Editor’s Note: This is the 115^th edition of our biweekly global business update newsletter that started in March 2020. Each edition takes 20-23 hours to create and publish. And we subscribe to ~30 paid information sources to bring this truly diverse, non-partisan global business trends newsletter to 4,600 subscribers around the world. Recently we considered making this a paid subscriber or ad supported newsletter to help recover some of the costs to bring you the latest global trends that can impact your business and even your lives.  We chose to make this newsletter ad supported. You will see small ads in each edition for organizations that serve international businesses. We ask that our subscribers click on the ads or use the QR code to see what each of our carefully chosen advertisers can do to make doing global business easier.

Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with any questions, comments and we welcome contributions.

Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896

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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.  Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.  

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“To succeed, work hard. Never give up and above all cherish a magnificent obsession.”, Walt Disney

“The best way to persuade people is with your ears.”, Dean Rusk, U.S. Secretary of State, 1961-1969

“Not everything that is faced can be changed, but nothing can be changed until it is faced.”, James Baldwin. Compliments of Linda DiMario

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Highlights in issue #115:

• GDP Growth Projections for Key Economies (2024-2025)
• Big Tech Uses More Electricity Than Entire Countries
• What does the future hold for India?
• The Surging Value of the Magnificent Seven (2000-2024)
• The Fight Against Global Hunger – Is food insecurity a political issue, or an existential one?
• The World’s Largest Stock Markets (1900 vs. 2023)
• Brand Global News Section: Dickey’s Barbeque®, Popeyes®, Starbucks® anmd Tropical Smoothie®

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B2B Payments Platform For Global Businesses

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“GDP Growth Projections for Key Economies (2024-2025) – In this graphic, we summarize the latest GDP growth projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which are as of July 2024. The U.S. has been one of the strongest advanced economies since the COVID-19 pandemic, though the IMF believes growth will taper off in 2025. This will be due to slower job growth and tighter fiscal policy (less government spending and/or higher taxes). In Europe, the IMF believes GDP growth will bottom out in 2024, and pick up in 2025. Germany in particular has struggled due to weakness in the manufacturing sector.” Visual Capitalist and the IMF, August 14, 2024

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“The Fight Against Global Hunger – Is food insecurity a political issue, or an existential one? Last year, approximately 30 percent of the world’s population experienced moderate to severe food insecurity. This means some 2.3 billion people “compromised on the quality and quantity of their food” or simply could not eat for a day or more, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization. An additional 500 million people – that’s roughly 50 percent more than the population of the United States – could not afford nutritious food. Yet only a quarter of global development assistance is used to fund the fight against hunger. This raises the question of whether food insecurity is a social, economic and political problem or an existential one.”, Geopolitical Futures, August 7, 2024

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“Gen AI’s next inflection point: From employee experimentation to organizational transformation –  After nearly two years of debate, the verdict is in: generative AI (gen AI) is here to stay, and its business potential is massive. We’ve already witnessed an exponential rate of gen-AI-related innovation, which promises to accelerate automation and enhance productivity, innovation, and the quality of work, as well as the employee and customer experience. The companies that fail to act and adapt now will likely struggle to catch up in the future. Despite all the buzz, most companies have yet to scratch the surface of gen AI’s promise. A recent McKinsey Global Survey reveals that employees are far ahead of their organizations in using gen AI,¹ as companies have been slow to adopt in ways that could realize gen AI’s trillion-dollar opportunity.”, McKinsey & Co., August 7, 2024

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“The World’s Largest Stock Markets (1900 vs. 2023) –  Data for 1900 comes from the DMS Database, accessed via the UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2024. Figures for 2023 are based on the FTSE Russell All-World Index Series Monthly Review (Dec 2023). Starting with 1900, we can see that the UK accounted for nearly one quarter of global market cap. Overall, European countries accounted for over 67% of global market cap in 1900. Looking at 2023’s data, we can see that much has changed since then.”, Visual Capitalist, DMS Database 2024 and FTSE Russell All-World Index Series Monthly Review, August 6, 2024

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“Tracking Changes in Global Demographics – Unexpectedly rapid declines in fertility suggest the population will peak this century. The latest edition of the U.N. World Population Prospects covers changes in demographic data after the COVID-19 pandemic. Life expectancy is rising, contributing to population growth, especially in developed countries. Despite falling fertility rates globally – down by one child per woman on average since 1990 – migration now plays a key role in sustaining population levels, particularly in developed regions. But while immigration helps the economy, it also risks social friction due to cultural clashes, forcing governments to balance the need for population growth with potential public resistance. Developed nations face tough decisions about supporting or limiting migration as other demographic solutions dwindle.”, Geopolitical Futures, August 16, 2024

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues

“America’s Resilient Oil Drillers Pump Out Another Record……the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Thursday that domestic oil and gas producers set another new record high in oil production during the week ended August 4. U.S. producers pumped out an amazing 13.4 million barrels per day (bpd) for the week, an increase of 800,000 bpd from the same week a year ago. This latest record represents the highest level of oil ever produced by any nation on earth. For context, this weekly production record is more than 3 times the 3.794 million bpd the U.S. produced in September 2008, just 16 years ago, and more than double the volume produced in September 2012.”, Forbes, August 11, 2024

Editor’s Note: 50 years ago the USA had to import 6 million barrels a day mostly from the Middle East and Venezuela. Today, The U.S. is one of the top suppliers of crude oil globally, and its export levels are expected to remain strong due to the ongoing high production rates and relatively stable domestic demand.

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“A man, a plan, a canal, Panama – On top of the partial blockage of Suez Canal trade by attacks from the Houthi militants, the world’s other great artificial waterway, the Panama Canal, has also been suffering. In this case it’s been a drought, most likely related to climate change, which reduced water levels in the canal from last July onwards.  The FT reported last week that the bulk carriers that transport low-value, time-insensitive commodities such as grain and liquefied natural gas are unlikely to return to the canal, even though higher rainfall should restore its carrying capacity in September. Having adjusted to longer journeys to Asia around the southern tip of Africa rather than through the canal, they’re not in a hurry to pay the high transit fees and face the risk of renewed disruption. (The Suez Canal LNG trade had already shifted to the Cape of Good Hope route thanks to the Houthis, of course.)”, The Financial Times, August 19, 2024

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“Big Tech Uses More Electricity Than Entire Countries – Big Tech’s AI dreams are coming with a big energy price tag—technology companies and their data centers are consuming more electricity than countries with many millions of people. We compare Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Apple’s 2023 electricity use against select countries. Data sourced from company reports and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (2022). Google and Microsoft both consume more electricity (24 TWh) than countries like Jordan (population: 11 million) and Ghana (34 million).”, Visual Capitalist, U.S. Energy Information Administration, World Bank, Microsoft, Google, Apple, Statista and Forbes.”, August 12, 2024

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Global & Regional Travel & Living

“Delta takes fast, free Wi-Fi international – Delta’s industry-leading Wi-Fi rollout is taking off internationally. Starting this summer, customers on select Viasat-equipped long-haul international flights can enjoy fast, free Wi-Fi presented by T-Mobile – bringing the airline one step closer to recognizing its goal of offering free Wi-Fi on its entire global fleet.   Today, free, streaming-quality connectivity is available on nearly 700 aircraft – more than 90% of Delta’s domestic mainline fleet – and the airline expects the vast majority of customers will have access to the product by the end of the year.”, Delta News Hub, August 12, 2024

Editor’s Note: A year and a half ago if there was wi-fi available (and it worked!!!) on long hall international flights it was slow and US$35-60 per trip.

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Book Review

Elaine Jobson is the CEO and Managing Director of the Australia-based Jetts Fitness® franchise. She was2017 Outstanding Business Woman of the Year and Jetts Fitness® is consistently ranked as one of the top places to work in Australia.

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Country & Regional Updates

Australia

“Generative AI: How will it affect the future of work in Australia? With between 79 and 98 percent of jobs in Australia predicted to be automated by 2030, enabling vast productivity gains, how will this change the nature of work? Generative AI (gen AI) will have different effects on different sectors; however, early adopters in any sector can drive positive change—at the company and employee level—not only in productivity but also in the quality of work. Top-down thinking will be critical for a tech strategy that delivers value and enables an organization to scale. But where will this leave the individual? There will be an increasing demand for people with technical skills, social-emotional competencies, critical thinking and complex problem-solving capabilities, and good interpersonal skills; basic digital literacy will be necessary for almost every job.”, McKinsey & Co., August 9, 2024

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“Westpac Profit Rises – Westpac’s profit edged higher as pressure on margins eased and mortgage lending grew faster than the wider industry, offsetting a fragile outlook for the nation’s economy.  The RBA remains some way off easing monetary policy, Governor Michele Bullock told a parliamentary panel in Canberra on Friday, as inflation is proving persistent and will only return back to the target range late next year.”, Bloomberg, August

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China

“China is now the world leader in coffee shops – But the average Chinese person still guzzles much less than a typical American. Between 2010 and 2022 coffee consumption per person in China rose fourfold (see chart), according to the International Coffee Organisation, a group of producer and user countries. (China’s GDP per person doubled over the same period.) The average Chinese person still drinks a fraction of the amount of coffee guzzled by the typical American: 0.1kg per year compared with 4.7kg. But last year China surpassed America, becoming the country with the most branded coffee shops (places like Starbucks) in the world, as the World Coffee Portal, a research firm, reported. China is home to nearly 50,000 such outlets., The Economist, August 8, 2024

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“GM Cuts China Jobs as It Resets in World’s Biggest Car Market – Carmaker eyeing production capacity cuts, people familiar say Long-anticipated restructuring targets once-flush business. The reassessment represents a major shift in strategy for GM, which earned billions of dollars in China as recently as 2018. The automaker is pulling back as many foreign brands are struggling with a profusion of local competitors in the world’s largest car market, which is now facing massive overcapacity. The reset involves a shift to producing electric vehicles, focusing on more upscale models and importing premium vehicles, these people said. GM and its joint ventures in China employ more than 58,000 people, according to a GM website.”, Bloomberg, August 12, 2024

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Czech Republic

“Semiconductor Factory Reshapes Czech Region’s Industrial Past – In the Czech town of Roznov pod Radhostem, a $2 billion investment by a US company promises to create a tech hub and help modernize the country’s stagnating economy. It’s the biggest bet by a foreign company in the Czech Republic in three decades. Arizona-based ON Semiconductor, or Onsemi, is expanding an existing operation, where about 2,200 employees in the Eastern European country make 10 million chips a day for customers such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Siemens, Apple and Samsung Electronics. The planned investment will create 800 new jobs over the next seven years, Bloomberg’s Krystof Chamonikolas and Michal Kubala report on Tuesday.”, Bloomberg, August 13, 2024

Editor’s Note: I lived in Prague from 1999-2001 while being the COO of a U.S. franchise licensee for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. 10 years out of communism the Czech people were very hard-working capitalists and still are.

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France

“Olympics Lift French Employment – Based on second-quarter data, however, the bump looks temporary. Employment levels in France have fluctuated significantly in 2024. In the first quarter, the private sector added 61,100 jobs, but in the second quarter, it lost 7,900 jobs. A likely contributing factor was a first-quarter surge in demand for workers during preparations for the Olympics. In another noteworthy development, the employment rate for those aged 50-64 – a group that faces heightened challenges in securing jobs – increased significantly. The key question now is whether these employment gains will persist after the Olympics, capitalizing on seasonal trends, or if they were merely temporary. The job losses in the second quarter suggest the need for caution in assessing the long-term impact of these jobs.”, Geopolitical Futures, August 9, 2024

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India

“What does the future hold for India? This may be India’s century. We look ahead at seven trends likely to shape the country for years to come—and help it achieve its development goals. India is a place of superlatives. It’s home to the world’s fifth-largest economy. Its population, at over 1.4 billion people, has surpassed China’s to become the largest in the world. And that population is young: at a median age of 27.6, Indians are on average more than ten years younger than the citizens of most other major economies.  In 2024, India also held the world’s largest democratic elections, in which 642 million people cast their ballots., McKinsey & Co., July 3, 2024

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Indonesia

“Indonesian fishermen are using a government AI tool to find their daily catch – Unlike wealthier nations where startups and Big Tech take the lead on AI, an Indonesian government agency is leading the charge and focusing on practical applications. The NN Marlin application can locate the densest fishing grounds based on the sea surface temperature and the level of chlorophyll. The app uses machine learning to crunch satellite data and remote sensing to identify schools of fish within a certain radius. ‘Now, catching fish is much more certain and efficient,’ 42-year-old Dedi told Rest of World. ‘We are guaranteed to get fish every day, and the use of fuel is also more efficient.’”, RestOfWorld.org, August 9, 2024

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Japan

“Japan’s Economy Sees Consumption-Led Rebound in Tailwind for BOJ – Private spending rebounds, suggesting virtuous cycle emerging. Data create positive backdrop ahead of LDP leadership election.  apan’s economy rebounded to growth in the second quarter on the back of an increase in private consumption, in a sign that a virtuous cycle long sought by the central bank linking rising incomes to increased spending may be starting to emerge. Gross domestic product expanded at an annualized pace of 3.1% in the three months through June versus the prior period, the Cabinet Office reported Thursday. The reading, which exceeded the 2.3% consensus estimate, came after the economy contracted by a revised 2.3% in the first quarter.”, Bloomberg, August 14, 2024

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United Kingdom

“Restaurant sector shakes off blues with return to growth – The number of outlets is rising again with three net new sites a week opening in first half of 2024. The fortunes of the casual dining sector, which suffered under the twin pressures of Covid and soaring inflation, have taken a turn for the better. The number of midmarket restaurants is up for the first time since the pandemic. According to Hospitality Market Monitor, the number of outlets had reached 6,696 when lockdown was imposed in March 2020. That had tumbled to 5,082 by June 2023, equivalent to more than one closure a day. Now there is a modest return to growth, with a 1.7 per cent increase in the number of casual dining venues in the past 12 months, an average of three net new sites a week in the first half of 2024. Hospitality Market Monitor suggests that the turnaround applies to the wider industry, with the number of licensed premises up by 0.5 per cent between March and June, comprising 462 net new openings, or five a day.”, The Times of London, August 19, 2024

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United States

“The Surging Value of the Magnificent Seven (2000-2024) – The Magnificent Seven are some of the largest companies in the U.S. stock market today, but things looked quite different back in 2000.  At that time, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Nvidia had a combined value of just $244 billion. Alphabet (Google) was still a private company, and Meta (Facebook) and Tesla weren’t even founded yet.  In this visualization, creator Ehsan Soltani looks at the market capitalization of these prominent technology companies over the last few decades using data from CompaniesMarketCap.com as well as Yahoo Finance. As of July 2024, the Magnificent Seven companies are worth $15.4 trillion combined. The below table shows their market capitalization from 2000 to 2024 in billions of dollars.”, Visual Capitalist, CompaniesMarketCap, Yahoo Finance, August 14, 2024

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“US Retail Sales Chugging Along – Brisk July retail sales along with fewer applications for unemployment benefits underscored a US economy with staying power as inflationary pressures gradually subside. Across the Atlantic, the UK jobless rate fell and wage growth cooled, while euro-zone productivity dropped for a sixth straight quarter and job growth slowed. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment in China slumped on investor concerns about the economy.  The value of retail sales increased in July by the most since early 2023 in a broad advance and firmer sales guidance by Walmart Inc., a barometer of growth, also indicated that shoppers are becoming more selective but are still spending.”, Bloomberg, August 17, 2024

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Bill Edwards and Keith Gerson Announce the Formation of The Franchise Consortium

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Brand & Franchising News

“Tropical Smoothie Eyes $610 Million Securitization – Whole-business deals are popular among franchise-heavy firms. Such transactions have surged this year in a hot ABS market. Tropical Smoothie Café is attempting to raise $610 million in its first-ever securitization, just two months after Blackstone Inc. funds acquired the drinks-and-food chain. The funds’ acquisition of Tropical Smoothie was valued at around $1.7 billion, according to a Kroll Bond Rating Agency pre-sale report for the securitization dated Monday. The chain has more than 1,400 locations, all but one franchised, according to Kroll, up nearly 500 since December 2020. Blackstone said when the deal closed that it planned to accelerate Tropical Smoothie’s national expansion.  Revenue topped $1.3 billion for the year through March 2024 and same-store sales have climbed 12 consecutive years, Kroll’s report said.”, Bloomberg, August 12, 2023

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“Starbucks replaces CEO with Chipotle CEO after coming under activist investor pressure – Starbucks replaces CEO with Chipotle CEO after coming under activist investor pressure: Starbucks has hired Chipotle chief executive Brian Niccol to replace Laxman Narasimhan, who leaves the business with immediate effect.  Niccol joined Chipotle as chief executive and a director in March 2018, and became chairman in March 2020. Before joining Chipotle, he served as chief executive of Taco Bell.”, Propel, August 13, 2024

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“M.U.M.B.O.s: Franchising’s New Heavyweights – In the franchise development world, not all prospective franchisees are alike. And in case you’ve been stranded on an island, the whale of all prospects for many franchisors is called a M.U.M.B.O. – a multi-unit, multi-brand operator. That’s code for well-capitalized, diversified, experienced and in need of very little hand-holding on the part of franchisors. These franchisees are savvy. They hire well. They employ strong teams. They know their way around an FDD(Franchise Disclosure Document). And best of all, they tend to execute on time to achieve strong track records and top accolades for the brands they champion.”, By Monica Feid, FranchiseWire, August 10, 2024.

Editor’s Note: Please also see “MUMBO-fication, Multi-branding grows across international borders” published in 2022 in ‘Franchise Update’ magazine by your Editor.

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“Protection of Intellectual Property in Franchise Systems – Intellectual property (IP) covers a wide range of information, such as trade marks, confidential information, the manuals, trade secrets, know how, business systems, company names, logos, symbols, insignia, email addresses, business know how, client lists and client information. Prior to issuing franchise agreements, the franchisor should register all trade marks that will be used in the system.”, Corporate LiveWire, Export Guide 2024, Compliments of Khushbu Sundarji, Stewart Germann Law Office, Auckland, New Zealand

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“Popeyes Fuels Growing Demand Across The World – The chicken chain’s international business now earns more than $1 billion in systemwide sales. Since RBI acquired the brand in March 2017, it has grown from more than 500 international restaurants generating roughly $300 million in annual system sales to nearly 1,300 restaurants and over $1 billion in systemwide sales. Same-store sales rose 19.4 percent in the second quarter. In 2019, Popeyes entered Spain with the help of a Burger King operator. Now there are close to 140 restaurants in the market, with clear runway for future development. In the U.K. and India, there are 50 stores each—achieved in less than three years. Popeyes sees more growth in those trade areas, as well as France, which has 16 units in about a year. The chain also recently debuted in New Zealand, and that restaurant is projected to earn $6 million in annual sales. That’s one of the strongest country debuts the brand has ever experienced.”, QSR magazine, August 9, 2024

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“Q&A: offer and sale of franchises in Japan – Franchising is very widespread in Japan. According to the data published by the Japan Franchise Association, for the period from April 2022 to March 2022, the number of chains operating in Japan stood at 1,282 with 249,316 stores and a total turnover of approximately ¥27 trillion. Among other sectors, convenience stores are particularly common in Japan, with a total of 57,451 outlets as at 2022…..franchisors whose businesses fall under the definition of a specified chain business are required to provide a written document that describes prescribed items and to explain the contents of the written documents prior to executing a franchise agreement with prospective franchisees.”, Lexology, July 4, 2024

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“The Dickey’s Barbecue Pit in Lahore Is Just the Latest Example of Pakistanis Embracing Texan Culture – Texas-style barbecue is very popular in the country better known for charcoal-grilled meats. But it’s been obsessed with all things Texas since the nineties. On a hot June afternoon, Mazhar Zaidi is sitting at one of the dining tables on the ground floor of Dickey’s Barbecue Pit in Lahore, Pakistan. The top floor has a few families and groups of friends occupying the tables, enjoying some of Dickey’s specialties, such as the brisket and the short ribs. Zaidi offers barbecue platters to the candidates he is interviewing to help market the Dallas-based franchise he brought to the food capital of Pakistan three years ago. Texas’ trademark pit-smoked barbecue is in stark contrast to the traditional tikka, meat grilled usually over coal, that Lahore is renowned for. Also, unlike Texas, the meat barbecued in Dickey’s Lahore outlet is predominantly beef, since pork, which is forbidden in Islam, isn’t consumed in the 97 percent, Muslim-majority country. The location also offers chicken and mutton.”, Texas Monthly, August 12, 2024

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries.   We do not get involved in or report on politics!

William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global.  With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other.  He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.

For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896

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