Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 121, Tuesday, November 12 , 2024
The World’s Elections Have Consequences
This edition is primarily focused to the projected impact on doing business around the world post USA national election last week. The new USA administration that will take office on January 20th has said that it will take a different economic, political, diplomatic and business approach here at home and in other countries than the current administration that has been in office and in charge of economic and foreign policy for the past almost 4 years. In this edition we look at what numerous reports say will be the business policies that those of us who do business in other countries will need to factor into our plans in order to be successful going forward.
On other matters, Starbucks® is putting into place an innovate supply chain strategy. McKinsey looks at how countries compare in productivity. Consumer anger over high prices piles pressure on politicians. The top 10 countries by value of all their natural resources. The global economy is returning to normalcy (??). Wynn is bulding a casino in the United Arab Emirates!! And the surprise rich country with the worst mobile-phone service!
This Edition’s Book Review: Adam Smith’s “The Wealth of Nations”, written 250 years ago, is still hugely relevant in global business today. Smith’s concept of the “invisible hand” explains how, when people act in their self-interest, markets naturally move toward efficiency, creating a win-win for society. It’s the foundation of how free-market economies work – basically, capitalism as we know it today.
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Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with any questions, comments and we welcome contributions.
The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.
Editor’s Note: You will see small ads in each edition for carefully vetted companies that serve international businesses. These small, focused, vetted ads are in place of charging subscriptions to our readers. Please click on the ads or use the QR code to see what each of our carefully chosen advertisers can do to make doing global business easier.
Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/ +1 949 375 1896
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“I’ve learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel.” – Maya Angelou
“Everything is going to be fine in the end. If it’s not fine, it’s not the end.”, Attributed to Oscar Wilde
“When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth”, Sherlock Holmes+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Highlights in issue #121:
- Brand Global News Section: Jolibee®, Starbucks®, Wendys® and Wingstop®
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B2B Payments Platform For Global Businesses
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Special Section: Elections Have Consequences
As my readers here in the USA and in other countries are aware, there was an election here in the USA last week. The surprise result will significantly impact the way we do business going forward not just in the USA but around the world. I have spoken to the Global Chamber and will give a webinar on the impact of the USA election on global business. What follows is a projection based on numerous articles and reports. This is NOT a political summary.
What happens in the USA has an impact in Asia, Latin America, Europe and the Middle East. The change in government direction here at home will make it easier to do business in some countries and more difficult in others. It is expected that the new USA administration will impose tariffs on products and services coming into the USA as soon as January. Other countries can be expected to add tariffs to what they export to the USA. This will hurt USA exports as it will cost more to buy them in other countries.
Overall, there have been major national elections in 71 countries in 2024 covering 50% of the world’s population and over 50% of the world’s Gross Domestic Product. Businesses across the world are now trying to figure out what the new political and economic environment will be in 2025 as a result of all these elections. Political stability may change substantially in countries the new USA administration target for tariffs and sanctions. Other examples of business changes that can and will come from national elections are taxes going up or down, more or less regulations, changes in currency export policy, tariffs in both directions and labor costs to name but a few. The ‘Financial Times’ reports that most ruling parties in countries around the world lost a share of control as a result of votes in their countries this year.
Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency is set to disrupt trans-Atlantic relations, likely escalating trade tensions, weakening already limited cooperation on climate and tech policy, and straining EU unity on defense and support for Ukraine. The key is to figure out what impact on doing business in European Union countries if the Ukraine war is solved or of it expands due to the new USA President’s foreign policy after January 20thwhen he takes over.
For example, it is expected on January 20th when the new USA administration takes over among the first executive orders will be the reimposition of oil sanctions on Iran that could result in their daily production dropping from 4 million barrels a day to 2 million barrels or less a day. This will have an impact on the worldwide price of oil and will cost China about 40% more to pay for their oil imports as they have been getting very cheap oil from Iran the past two years.
With the U.S. increasing tariffs on imports, particularly from countries like China, businesses may face rising costs on goods and raw materials. This could prompt companies to rethink their supply chains and even relocate production closer to their primary markets to avoid steep tariffs and trade barriers.
As the U.S. enacts new tech, data privacy, and energy policies, other nations are likely to follow suit with similar but distinct regulations. This means foreign companies will need to navigate a patchwork of rules, especially in industries like telecommunications, software, and cloud services, where data privacy and localization are crucial. Managing compliance across different countries may become more challenging and costly as each region enforces its own version of these standards.
The U.S. trade policies could also encourage allies to strengthen or create new regional trade agreements, such as within the EU or ASEAN. For foreign companies, this will mean continuing to shift their supply chains toward countries with more stable trade relationships, gradually moving operations away from traditional manufacturing hubs (China). The added uncertainty from tariffs, regulatory shifts, and currency fluctuations may further disrupt financial stability for businesses, potentially requiring them to hedge their bets by diversifying investments and managing risk more proactively.
Furthermore, as immigration restrictions tighten, global talent mobility may become limited. Foreign companies that depend on specialized talent across borders might turn to remote work or emphasize developing local talent pools, impacting operational efficiency.
We believe that the global business landscape will likely experience increased volatility and complexity in the coming years. Companies that can adapt by revising strategies, maintaining flexible supply chains, and keeping compliance agile will be best positioned to navigate the challenges and opportunities ahead. Time to update that Going Global’ strategic business plan!
Here are a number of articles from information sources both here in the USA and in other countries.
The Impact of the U.S. Elections on Trade and International Supply Chains
The likely winners and losers in Trump presidency
Trump re-election entrenches global instability
Wall Street girds for Trump 2.0: Tariffs, tax cuts and volatility
So, what does a Trump presidency mean for markets?
China Nears Record $1 Trillion Trade Surplus as Trump Returns
Here’s what’s at stake in the Middle East under Trump’s second term
Trump’s Return Looks to Upend US Foreign Policy Once Again
Welcome to Trump’s world – His sweeping victory will shake up everything
What Trump’s Win Means for the Economy
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“Economically complex, highly productive – Countries with higher economic complexity scores—a calculation based on the diversity and complexity of a country’s exports—tend to have greater labor productivity. This may suggest a potential link between a nation’s economic structure and its overall productivity levels, McKinsey global managing partner Bob Sternfels and senior partner Tracy Francis and coauthors explain. Higher-income G-20 countries shifted from agrarian to industrial and service-based economies, resulting in higher economic complexity scores. Conversely, many middle-income economies tend to have relatively low economic complexity due to their reliance on commodities.”, McKinsey & Co., November 7, 2024
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“The Global Economy’s Return to Normalcy – Economists are now focused on implementing the next phase of recovery. International Monetary Fund data shows the global economy has stabilized since the pandemic shock four and a half years ago. Inflation has largely eased, though rates remain higher in developing and emerging markets than in advanced economies. Global gross domestic product held steady, bolstered by economic growth in the U.S. and Asia, while projections for commodity-dependent economies in the Middle East, Central Asia and sub-Saharan Africa have been revised downward. Economists are now focused on implementing the next phase of recovery, which demands tighter fiscal policies and structural reforms to boost productivity and sustain growth. They also urged governments to address demographic challenges affecting labor forces. Each of these steps risks fueling renewed political and social pressures.”, Geopolitical Futures, November 8, 2024
Editor’s Note: This analysis is dated three days after the USA election but does not mention the election impact.
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“The World’s Largest Unconnected Populations – The internet has become essential for humanity, with most of the population spending hours online each day. Yet, over 2.5 billion people worldwide still lack internet access. This graphic illustrates the countries with the largest unconnected populations in absolute terms, according to We Are Social as of January 2024. Asia and Africa Have the Largest Unconnected Populations. All 10 countries on the list are located in Africa or Asia. India has the largest unconnected population, with over 684 million individuals offline, representing 47.6% of its population. China has the second-largest unconnected population, at 336 million, though its percentage of offline individuals is relatively lower, at 23.6%.”, Visual Capitalist, Social Canada and World Economic Forum, November 8, 2024
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Simple, secure currency transfers
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“Consumer anger over high prices piles pressure on politicians – Post-Covid inflation rise leaves toxic legacy for governments across rich economies. Discontent over the economy was a key motivator for Republican voters in last week’s US election, exit polling suggested — contributing to vice-president Kamala Harris’s defeat at the hands of Donald Trump. Incumbents in countries including the UK and Japan have also suffered in elections this year, partly because of anger at high living costs. Polling suggests the legacy of inflation will also play a role in national elections next year, including in Germany and Canada.”, The Financial Times, November 10, 2024
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“Top 10 Countries by Value of All Their Natural Resources – Natural resources are the backbone of modern manufacturing, necessary to produce everything around us. According to 2021 data from Statista, 10 countries dominate the global natural resource landscape, each holding vast reserves critical for various industries. Russia leads the pack with natural resources valued at $75 trillion, largely consisting of coal, natural gas, oil, and rare earth metals. At the end of 2018, Russia’s Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment valued the country’s mineral reserves at approximately $1.44 trillion. In terms of global share, Russia is unmatched in natural gas, holding the world’s largest proven reserves at 1.32 quadrillion cubic feet as of 2020—nearly 20% of the global total. Russia also ranks as a gold powerhouse.”, Visual Capitalist and Statista, November 7, 2024
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“Forecast of the global middle class population from 2015 to 2030, by region – By 2030, the middle-class population in Asia-Pacific is expected to increase from 1.38 billion people in 2015 to 3.49 billion people. In comparison, the middle-class population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase from 114 million in 2015 to 212 million in 2030. China accounted for over half of the global population for middle-class wealth in 2017. The United States had the highest number of individuals belonging to the top one percent of wealth holders.”, Statista and the Brookings Institute, November 2024
Editor’s Note: This confirms what we have seen in the literature over the past few years for the Asia Pacific region. For example. as of 2024, Indonesia’s middle class comprises approximately 47.85 million individuals, accounting for about 17.1% of the population. (Channel News Asia) The Indonesian government has set an ambitious target to elevate the middle-class population to 80% by 2045, coinciding with the nation’s centennial. (Jakarta Globe).
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Book Review
Adam Smith’s “The Wealth of Nations”, written 250 years ago, is still hugely relevant in global business today. Smith’s concept of the “invisible hand” explains how, when people act in their self-interest, markets naturally move toward efficiency, creating a win-win for society. It’s the foundation of how free-market economies work – basically, capitalism as we know it today.
Smith’s emphasis on the division of labor, where everyone does what they’re best at, set the stage for modern business structure and supply chains. Think about how today’s companies operate: specialized tasks lead to more productivity and competitive edge, just as Smith predicted.
Smith also argued against the old idea that nations get rich by hoarding gold and controlling colonies. Instead, he said wealth comes from productivity, not stockpiling resources. This thinking led to today’s liberal trade policies, encouraging open markets and fewer barriers. So, when companies source globally and countries trade based on their unique strengths, they’re following Smith’s playbook.
While he was all about free markets, he knew that governments need to provide public goods, enforce laws, and keep things fair. Today’s mixed economies still use that balance, allowing free markets to grow while governments step in when needed for the public good.
Overall, The Wealth of Nations is still the backbone of modern economic thought, guiding how businesses and nations operate in a connected world.introduced principles that continue to influence economics and public policy today.
This book is a unique way to understand globalization’s impact on everyday goods, showing how something as simple as a T-shirt reflects the vast, interconnected web of today’s economy.
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Keith Gerson and Bill Edwards Join Forces To Offer Trusted Suppliers To The Franchise Community
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Country & Regional Updates
Canada
“Port of Montreal Employers Move to Lock Out Dockworkers After Final Offer Rejected – The dispute exacerbates the disruption to trade in Canada as a lockout at ports along the West Coast continues. The movement of cargo through Canada’s second-largest seaport halted late Sunday after dockworkers at the Port of Montreal rejected a revised pay offer from employers, heightening stresses on trade as talks aimed at reopening ports on the country’s West Coast faltered.”, The Wall Street Journal, November 10, 2024
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China
“Din Tai Fung, a Taiwan-based restaurant chain, will close several of its mainland China stores as customers lose appetite for pricier meals – The chain’s announcement it would close all its shops in northern China – no alternate Beijing locations for the Yin family – marks the end of a 20-year engagement between the wildly popular restaurant and a consumer base once flush with discretionary income and hungry for new places to spend it. Data from Chinese food and beverage platform Hongcan 18 showed 1.36 million restaurants severed their licences in 2023, more than double the 519,000 closures reported in 2022.”, South China Morning Post, September 4, 2024
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“China sharpens edge in global trade with zero-tariff deal for developing world – China will eliminate tariffs for goods from countries classified as the world’s least developed starting in December, a move expected to lower shipping costs from parts of Africa and Asia and give Beijing more sway in global trade. The zero-tariff treatment for the group of mostly small, non-industrialised countries poses little threat to China’s manufacturing-intensive economy, analysts said, and gives Beijing an edge in emerging markets as the US and Europe attempt to stem the flow of Chinese goods into their own backyards. The scheme will cover all countries the United Nations considers “least developed” that have diplomatic ties to China….”, South China Morning Post, October 30, 2024
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Europe & European Union Countries
“Can Europe’s unity survive as its sense of crisis grows? – The EU needs investment to boost growth and competitiveness, but the debate over who pays has echoes of the financial crisis. The sense of crisis grew on Wednesday after Trump was re-elected US president. Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe his pledges to impose tariffs on US imports from Europe and demand that the continent spend more on its own defence will further curtail economic growth in the EU. Trump has also pledged to roll back swaths of environmental legislation, which EU officials fear will leave European businesses at a further competitive disadvantage. ‘You cannot pay for competitiveness. You have to create the conditions for it,’ says a senior EU diplomat present in Budapest. ‘[And] where is this new money supposed to come from? Borrow against future generations? Or expect other member states to pay for you?’”, The Financial Times, November 7, 2024
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United Arab Emirates
“Inside Wynn Resorts’ $3.9 Billion Gamble On The UAE – With its first casino resort set to open in 2027, a little-known emirate is suddenly an unlikely hot gaming market. Here’s how the U.S. casino giant made a high-stakes bet on its future—and left Abu Dhabi, Dubai and other casino operators in the dust. Wynn Resorts CEOCraig Billings raised eyebrows a year ago when he told investors that the United Arab Emirates was the “the most exciting new market opening in decades.” Outside of Egypt and Lebanon, casinos are practically nonexistent in the Middle East, since majority Muslim countries typically ban gambling. Even more intriguing: At the time Billings was enthusing about the UAE’s gaming future, the kingdom had exactly zero casinos.”, Forbes, November 10, 2024
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United Kingdom
“The rich country with the worst mobile-phone service – 5G networks are fast. Their roll-out is not. Britian has long been a pioneer in telecoms. In 1837 it built the world’s first commercial telegraph; the first transatlantic call was placed from London in 1927; in 1992 a British programmer sent the world’s first text message to a mobile phone. Today it lags rather than leads. A new “core network” using stand-alone technology will need to be installed to get the full benefits of 5G. Last year just 2,000 of the country’s 81,000 mobile base stations were broadcasting stand-alone 5G. In laboratory environments the next generation of mobile networks has reportedly notched up speeds 100 times faster than 5G. Britain is anything but that.”, The Economist, November 11, 2024
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United States
“2024 Election Analysis – After an unprecedented campaign cycle that cost nearly $16 billion, 158 million Americans went to the polls to elect our next set of leaders up and down the ballot. While it may take time to sort out the remaining House and Senate races that will determine the full balance of power in Congress, one thing is certain, President-elect Donald Trump and the new 119th Congress will be met in January with an enormous inbox of global threats and challenges, with escalating threats from foreign rivals, wars raging in Ukraine and the Middle East, and cascading humanitarian crises.
USGLC organized over 1,000 local leaders across the nation – business leaders, veterans, mayors, farmers, community and faith-based leaders to engage hundreds of candidates running for the House and Senate. Some candidates were already well-versed on foreign policy – from their own military service, missionary work, or international business experience – but for many, this was one of their few, if not their only, in-depth discussion about foreign policy and how global diplomacy and development impacts our communities here at home.”, U.S. Global Leadership Coalition (USGLC), November 9, 2024Editor’s Note: This is a very detailed analysis of the USA election with several key ‘election takeaways’.
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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades
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Brand & Franchising News
“Starbucks ramps up supply chain investments for climate resilience – Starbucks, which sources 3% of the world’s coffee, is ramping up investments in its supply chain as experts expect hotter temperatures and changing climates to dramatically transform production and shrink the amount of land suitable for growing in half by 2050. The company is buying two innovation farms in Central America to advance research to protect its coffee supply. The coffee giant said it plans additional farm investments in Africa and Asia as it looks to build an innovation network across the world’s largest growing regions. New innovation farms in Asia and other areas of the world will enable new research tailored to specific geographies and allow Starbucks to scale solutions across the “Coffee Belt” growing regions.”, Supply Chain Dive, October 31, 2024
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“Wingstop unit growth spikes with strong performance – With same-store sales at the chicken-wing chain up nearly 21% in third quarter, almost all from traffic, it’s no surprise franchisees want to open more restaurants. Wingstop on Wednesday reported yet another outstanding performance in the third quarter with domestic same-store sales up nearly 21%. The 20.9% increase, which was almost entirely driven by transactions yet again, wasn’t quite the comparable sales of 28.7% in the second quarter this year, which disappointed Wall Street watchers who were expecting even better sales, sending the stock price tumbling immediately after the report. Still, the chain’s two-year comparable sales topped 36%, and the company still expects to reach 20% same-store sales growth for the year, which far surpasses most public restaurant companies. The shops in the United Kingdom are averaging annual per shop sales of US$3,000,000.”, Restaurant Business Online, October 30, 2024
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“Wendy’s Bets on Palantir AI to Keep Up With $1 Frosty Demand – Program could eventually place orders without human help. Supply chain executive: This will ‘change the way we work’. AI is making inroads in a restaurant industry grappling with increased costs for labor and ingredients after years of high inflation. That’s pushed a sector already operating on tight margins to look even closer at managing expenses. Wendy’s supply chain co-op, an independent group that purchases on behalf of the chain’s restaurants, is betting Palantir’s system will do just that for the burger brand’s 6,000 US locations. Normally, stores keep extra inventory just in case, and that’s become more expensive thanks to inflation.”, Bloomberg, November 7, 2024
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“Jollibee parent fully acquires Hong Kong’s Michelin-rated Tim Ho Wan dim sum chain – Jollibee Food Corporation buys remaining 8 per cent stake in company for S$20.2 million. Jollibee Food Corporation, which runs fast-food chains across Asia, owned 92 per cent of the dim sum company in January, and the latest deal gives it full ownership. Tim Ho Wan runs about 80 stores in 11 markets including Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, Melbourne, Tokyo, Macau, South Korea and Manila. The deal comes at a time when Hong Kong’s food and beverage industry faces an uphill battle to retain customers, with many residents crossing the border to mainland China for leisure. Consumption has also slowed on the mainland, with Beijing rolling out a raft of stimulus measures in a bid to electrify the economy.”, South China Morning Post, November 6, 2024
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.
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For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
