Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 145, Tuesday, October 14, 2025

“History is who we are and why we are the way we are.”

Welcome to the 145th Edition of the Global Business Update – The world is changing faster than our assumptions — but opportunity remains for those who adapt with clarity. As we enter the final quarter of 2025, global business is defined by contrasts—momentum in some markets and fragility in others. The World Trade Organization reports stronger-than-expected trade growth this year, driven by AI-related demand, even as tariffs and political headwinds reshape supply chains. Emerging markets are surging back, marking their biggest rally in 15 years, while developed markets face slower growth and rising caution.

Innovation continues to redraw the global landscape: China enters the top ten of the Global Innovation Index for the first time, and South Korea reaches new heights in R&D-driven competitiveness. Yet these shifts occur amid widening gaps in access and cost—such as internet prices ranging from $0.01 per Mbps in Romania to over $4 in the UAE.

From Australia’s search for a post-China growth model to Brazil’s rise as an energy powerhouse and Vietnam’s new status as an emerging-market leader, nations are redefining their global roles. Meanwhile, Europe’s gradual digital border rollout, India’s billion-dollar IPO wave, and the Middle East’s growing appeal to Chinese travelers signal an era of recalibration rather than retreat.

In franchising and consumer brands, staying power is the new currency of success. Dave’s Hot Chicken’s billion-dollar acquisition, Din Tai Fung’s global momentum, and Pizza 4P’s expansion to New York highlight how authentic concepts cross borders when backed by operational discipline and cultural adaptability.

This edition’s book review highlights: History Matters by David McCullough, one of America’s most respected historians, is best known for his Pulitzer Prize–winning biographies and accessible storytelling. In History Matters: Reflections on History and the American Experience, McCullough gathers speeches and essays delivered over several decades. While brief in form, the collection packs enduring insights on why history is not simply about the past—it is about how we live, lead, and make choices in the present.

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To receive our biweekly newsletter by email every other Tuesday, click here https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.  We do not get involved with or report on politics!

PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.

Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896

Link to our current and past newsletters:  https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“History is who we are and why we are the way we are.”, David McCullough

“The future belongs to those who can see connections where others see walls.”, Madeleine Albright, Former U.S. Secretary of State

“In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.”, Warren Buffett

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Highlights in issue #145:

Internet Costs by Country in 2025

The World’s Most Innovative Countries in 2025

EU begins gradual rollout of digital border system

Which Chinese regions are being hit hardest by US tariffs?

Brand Global News Section: Dave’s Hot  Chicken®, Din Tai Fung®, Dominos®, Pizza 4Ps®

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“Internet Costs by Country in 2025 – UAE has the world’s most expensive fixed internet at $4.31 per Mbps. Eastern Europe leads affordability, with Romania as low as $0.01 per Mbps. In a world more connected than ever, internet access has become essential infrastructure. But the price people pay for that access varies dramatically around the globe. This graphic compares the cost of fixed broadband internet per megabit per second (Mbps) across 60+ countries in 2025. At the top of the list, the United Arab Emirates stands out with an average cost of $4.31 per Mbps—nearly double that of the second-most expensive, Ghana ($2.58). These high prices are often due to limited competition, infrastructure challenges, and regulatory factors. Switzerland, Kenya, and Morocco also rank high on the list, all exceeding $1.00 per Mbps.”, Visual Capitalist & We Are Social, October 2, 2025

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“The AI capex endgame is approaching – The rapid building of excess capacity both extends bubbles and ultimately bursts them.  The dramatic rise in AI capital expenditure by so-called hyperscalers of the technology and the stock concentration in US equities are classic peak bubble signals. But history shows that a bust triggered by this over-investment may hold the key to the positive long-run potential of AI. AI stocks have exhibited bubble characteristics for a while. Share prices have skyrocketed, driving excessive index concentration.   The good news is that the aggressive AI capex build-out almost guarantees AI’s future ubiquity. The bad news is that this will probably only come after a period of Schumpeterian creative destruction.”, The Financial Times, October 2, 2025

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“The World’s Most Innovative Countries in 2025 – This graphic maps the main results of the Global Innovation Index (GII) 2025, which captures the innovation ecosystem performance of 139 economies. China has entered the GII’s top 10 for the first time, while South Korea climbed to fourth (its highest position to date). Innovation is often viewed as the backbone of economic competitiveness.  In this graphic, we’ve visualized the results of the annual Global Innovation Index (GII), which ranks countries on their ability to foster research and entrepreneurship.  In our map, lower scores are shown as darker shades of blue, transitioning to green and then yellow as score increases.”, Visual Capitalist & WIPO Global Innovation Index, October 2, 2025

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes, Tariffs & Trade Issues

“Hell Hath No Fury Like a Coffee Drinker in 2025 – Prices are driving people to expletive-laden rants, but few are quitting caffeine; ‘I cannot function without that coffee.’ Roasted coffee prices at the grocery store are up 22% in the past year, more than any other item tracked by the government. The price increases are due to bad weather in the world’s coffee-growing regions and the Trump Administration’s tariffs.”, The Wall Street Journal, October 3, 2025

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“Emerging markets roar back with biggest stock rally in 15 years – ‘Stars are finally aligning’ for EM assets, as weakening US dollar sends investors in search of yield. An MSCI benchmark index of emerging-market stocks has risen 28 per cent so far this year, its biggest gain over the same period since 2009, while a JPMorgan index of government bonds sold by developing countries in their own currencies is up 16 per cent, in a growing comeback from a “lost decade” in the shadow of US markets. The rally in emerging market stocks has far outpaced gains in advanced economies — an MSCI index of developed market stocks is up less than 17 per cent so far this year.”, The Financial Times, October 6, 2025

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“Global Trade Growth to Be Stronger Than Expected, WTO Says – Cites artificial intelligence surge and a buildup in inventories in the U.S. that softens the impact of higher tariffs. Global trade is projected to increase by 2.4% in 2025, a significant rise from earlier forecasts due to AI-related purchases and U.S. inventory buildup. Trade in AI-related products, including semiconductors and servers, surged by 20% in the first half of 2025, accounting for 42% of total trade growth. The WTO lowered its 2026 trade growth forecast to 0.5% from 1.8%, anticipating the full impact of tariffs and the depletion of built-up inventories. Global trade in goods will increase more rapidly than previously expected this year as purchases of goods related to artificial intelligence surge and a buildup in inventories in the U.S. softens the impact of higher tariffs, the World Trade Organization said Tuesday.”, The Wall Street Journal, October 7, 2025

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Global & Regional Travel News

“Travel Forecast – The U.S. Travel Fall 2025 update projects slower growth for travel in 2025, but higher growth rates in 2026 and beyond. Spending is buoyed by continued growth in domestic leisure travel despite economic concerns. International inbound travel is projected to decrease in 2025 for the first time since 2020, but to resume growth in 2026 driven by U.S. hosted events such as the FIFA World Cup and America 250 celebrations. Travel to the United States is projected to reverse course and fall to just 85% of 2019 levels in 2025.”, U.S. Travel Association, October 1, 2025

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“Middle East gains ground with Chinese tourists during Golden Week – The Middle East has traditionally not ranked among the top destinations for Chinese travelers, but that appears to be changing fast. During this year’s extended Golden Week holiday — which runs Oct. 1–8 — Chinese travel reservations to Doha surged 441% from a year earlier, while bookings to Abu Dhabi rose 229%, according to Trip.com. Meanwhile, Dubai saw a 27% increase, placing it among the top 10 destinations outside Asia, according to travel data analytics firm ForwardKeys, which counted international departures from China between Sept. 27 and Oct. 12.”, CNBC, October 11, 2025

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“Boeing 737 loses status as world’s most popular jet – First introduced in 1967, Boeing’s 737 was developed as an industry workhorse to run on high-frequency routes between cities within the US and Europe. A 737 takes off or lands every 1.5 seconds and the global fleet has carried more than 31 billion passengers – or four flights for everyone on the planet. Airbus, based in Toulouse, France, introduced the A320 in 1988 – giving Boeing’s 737 a 19-year head start on orders. However, the arrival of the re-engined A320neo model in 2020 saw Airbus gain an advantage and it has been steadily gaining ground since.”, The London Telegraph, October 7, 2025

Editor’s Note: During my first career in the international oil & gas sector, I flew on a 737 in the Persian Gulf at 130 degrees F and 100% humidity and on the North Slope of Alaska in -77 degrees F and 0% humidity. This airplane has had the widest operating range ever.

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“EU begins gradual rollout of digital border system – EU Entry/Exit System to be rolled out over six months. Passport stamping to be replaced by digital records. EU seeks tighter border controls amid immigration pressures. European Union member countries began rolling out a new entry and exit system on Sunday at the bloc’s external borders, electronically registering non-EU nationals’ data. The Entry/Exit System (EES), an automated system that requires travellers to register at the border by scanning their passport and having their fingerprints and photograph taken, will be introduced over six months. The move is aimed at detecting overstayers, tackling identity fraud and preventing illegal migration amid political pressure in some EU countries to take a tougher stance.”, Reuters, October 11, 2025

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Book Review

History Matters by David McCullough, one of America’s most respected historians, is best known for his Pulitzer Prize–winning biographies and accessible storytelling. In History Matters: Reflections on History and the American Experience, McCullough gathers speeches and essays delivered over several decades. While brief in form, the collection packs enduring insights on why history is not simply about the past—it is about how we live, lead, and make choices in the present.

McCullough insists that history is more than facts and dates. It is a narrative of people—leaders, innovators, citizens—facing uncertainty, overcoming obstacles, and often reshaping the world in ways they themselves could not fully see. That perspective resonates deeply for business leaders navigating today’s volatile global environment. The stories McCullough shares remind us that resilience, values, and the willingness to adapt are the threads connecting successful endeavors across time.

Another recurring theme is humility. McCullough urges readers not to view history as inevitable but as contingent—a series of decisions made by fallible human beings. For executives and boards, this is a powerful reminder: success is not guaranteed, and the decisions you make today will become tomorrow’s history. Just as past leaders faced wars, depressions, or technological disruption, modern executives face geopolitical risks, regulatory uncertainty, and fast-moving innovation. Learning from history is not optional; it is essential preparation.

McCullough also highlights the role of storytelling. Nations, organizations, and leaders who tell compelling stories about their mission inspire trust, attract talent, and build resilience. For global franchisors and executives, this insight underscores the importance of shaping a brand narrative that both honors its roots and adapts to new markets.

5 Takeaways for Global Business

Context matters – Decisions without historical perspective risk repeating past mistakes.

Resilience is timeless – Every era has crises; thriving requires persistence and adaptability.

Leadership is human – Imperfection is universal; great leaders learn and adjust.

Culture is strategic – Shared values sustain both nations and companies during uncertainty.

The past inspires the future – Stories of innovation and courage motivate bold action today

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Country & Regional Updates

Australia

Brazil

“New Highs for Brazil’s Oil Production – Offshore oil discoveries bode well for its plans to become a top producer. According to data from Brazil’s hydrocarbon regulator, Brazil extracted an average of 4.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in June. This is the largest volume of hydrocarbons that Brazil, Latin America’s top oil producer, has ever pumped. Crude oil output also reached a new record of 3.8 million bpd. Oil discoveries in ultra-deep waters off Brazil’s coast bode well for its plans to become a top-five global oil producer. Brazil also expects to attract more than $120 billion in investment by 2029, primarily in its pre-salt oil fields, where the average breakeven cost is below $40 per barrel.”, Geopolitical Futures, October 3, 2025

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Canada

“Canada’s economy added 60,000 jobs in September, rebounding from two months of losses – The Canadian labour market snapped out of a funk in September, partially unwinding a spate of job losses over the summer. Employment prospects have been dinged by the U.S.-driven trade war, resulting in job losses in certain export industries and a cautious approach to hiring from employers.”, The Globe and Mail, October 10, 2025

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China

“China’s Green Push for the Global South – Domestic overproduction of green technologies means new markets need to be found. China’s focus on renewable energy is not driven by ideology but by economic interest and strategic competition. China has massively expanded its output of solar panels, batteries and wind turbines. Despite rapid domestic uptake, production outstrips demand at home, forcing Beijing to seek out new markets for export. By flooding global markets with cheap green hardware and pairing exports with financing, Beijing is turning the energy transition into a strategic export industry.”, Geopolitical Futures, October 10, 2025

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“Which Chinese regions are being hit hardest by US tariffs? Some Chinese provinces have recorded sharp drops in US exports amid the trade war. Others have seen shipments soar as much as 265%. As the trade war between the world’s two largest economies drags on, the impact is already showing: China’s exports to the United States were down 15.5 per cent year on year in the first eight months of 2025. But US tariffs are not affecting China equally. The country is made up of more than 30 provincial-level regions, and there is a wide divergence between these areas both in terms of their exposure to the US market and the effect of the trade war. China’s export hubs on the country’s eastern coastline dominate trade with the United States. Six coastal regions – Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Shandong and Fujian – together accounted for nearly 80 per cent of China’s exports to the US in value terms during the first seven months of 2025, according to CIB Research.”, South China Morning Post, September 19, 2025

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European Union

“Lagarde Sees ECB on Target With Growth Headwinds Fading Soon – Christine Lagarde said inflation remains close to the European Central Bank’s 2% target and expects the economy to pick up in 2026. Lagarde stated that sluggish export performance is expected to hold growth back for the remainder of the year, but the effect of these headwinds should fade next year. The ECB president suggested that the euro can become a global anchor of trust and raised the prospect of common EU debt, such as joint financing of public goods like defense. Addressing told European Union lawmakers in Strasbourg, she said that ‘sluggish export performance, driven by higher tariffs, a stronger euro and increased global competition, is expected to hold growth back for the remainder of the year.’”, Bloomberg, October 6, 2025

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India

“Two Billion-Dollar Debuts Test Strength of Hot India IPO Market – Tata Capital Ltd. and LG Electronics India Ltd. will begin trading in Mumbai after concluding two of the nation’s biggest initial public offerings this year. The two listings will test the strength of India’s equity capital market and underscore the country’s growing status as a global fundraising hub. The success of these offerings could set the tone for hundreds of firms waiting to go public in India and fuel optimism that proceeds from new Indian listings in 2025 could exceed last year’s record haul. The two listings underscore India’s growing status as a global fundraising hub, powered by deep domestic liquidity and an expanding retail investor base.”, Bloomberg, October 11, 2025

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United States

“Roughly half of U.S. states are effectively in a recession and ‘hanging on by their fingertips’ – Despite strong national figures—3.8% GDP growth and 4.3% unemployment—large parts of the U.S. are effectively in recession, according to Moody’s Analytics. Chief economist Mark Zandi exclusively told Fortune that 22 states are contracting and many lower- and middle-income households are “hanging on by their fingertips,” struggling with debt and slowing wage growth despite steady employment. Private data during the federal shutdown shows weakening consumer confidence, particularly among those earning under $35,000.”, Fortune, October 9, 2025

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Vietnam

“Vietnam Wins Emerging-Market Status From FTSE, Drawing Investor Optimism – The upgrade from frontier status puts Vietnam alongside peers such as China, Indonesia and India. Index provider FTSE Russell reclassified the Southeast Asian nation as a secondary emerging market, citing reforms that have brought its capital markets more in line with international standards. “The upgrade affirms that Vietnam has reached a key milestone in its development,’ Julius Baer equity research analyst Jen-Ai Chua said in a note. ‘This should drive more reforms.” DBS senior economist Chua Han Teng expects the change to help attract stronger foreign inflows.”, The Wall Street Journal, October 8, 2025

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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification

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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News

“Establishing Staying Power: Five Steps To Consider When Expanding Internationally – Expanding into international markets can be one of the most rewarding and strategic moves a franchise brand makes, but success isn’t measured at the ribbon-cutting. It’s measured in staying power. Sustained success abroad requires more than a strong launch. It demands deep local insight (primarily guided by your franchisee), long-term thinking (from both franchisor and franchisee), and the operational discipline to scale with consistency (franchisor to instill standards, then monitoring and supporting franchisee).”, Franchising.com, October 10, 2025. Article by Benjamin Simon is the regional vice president of international at Mathnasium.

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“Vietnam’s Pizza 4P’s to launch in New York City – Vietnamese restaurant chain Pizza 4P’s is set to make its US debut with a flagship location in Brooklyn, New York, marking a significant milestone in the company’s ongoing international expansion. Known for its farm-to-table philosophy and house-made cheese, the fast-growing restaurant group will take a distinctive blend of Japanese Omotenashi hospitality and artisanal pizza to one of the world’s most competitive dining markets. The Brooklyn opening will be Pizza 4P’s fifth international location, joining its presence in Japan, Cambodia, Indonesia, and India.”, Inside Retail Asia, October 2, 2025. Compliments of Jim Mayfield.

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“How Din Tai Fung Became America’s Top-Earning Restaurant Chain – The dumpling restaurant was started in Taiwan half a century ago. Now there are 17 always-packed locations in the US, including one in Disneyland. Din Tai Fung, a staple of international and California dining that arrived on America’s East Coast just over a year ago, generates an annual average of $27.4 million per US location, according to industry researcher Technomic—almost triple what high-end restaurant group Nobu pulls in. Headquartered in Taipei, Din Tai Fung is undeniably a global brand, with more than 165 locations worldwide and a cult following on multiple continents. In 2024 the chain opened restaurants in Singapore, Dubai, Phuket in Thailand, Manila, and one at Disneyland in Anaheim, California, in addition to an East Coast flagship in Manhattan. This year it added more than a dozen, including North American locations in Vancouver and Santa Monica, California.”, Bloomberg, October 6, 2025

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“Meet the finance duo behind Dave’s Hot Chicken’s $1 billion deal as Gen Z flocks to the brand – Fast-casual restaurant Dave’s Hot Chicken began as a $900 pop-up in a Los Angeles parking lot in 2017. Eight years later, the brand has expanded to over 345 stores worldwide—a remarkable rise from seven locations in early 2020. Known for its Nashville-style hot chicken, Dave’s attracted Atlanta-based private equity firm Roark Capital, which specializes in franchised businesses and acquired Subway in 2023. Roark owns two major restaurant holding companies: Inspire Brands (Dunkin’, Buffalo Wild Wings, Sonic) and GoTo Foods (Auntie Anne’s, Carvel, Cinnabon). Dave’s Hot Chicken was acquired by Roark this past summer for $1 billion and expects to reach 400 stores this year.”, Fortune, October 6, 2025

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“Dunkin’ Sells $900 Million of Bonds Backed By Franchise Fees – Dunkin’ Brands Group Inc. sold $900 million of bonds backed by the fees it gets from franchising its restaurants. The company will use the proceeds from the sale to repay the Class A-2-II portion of a similar bond it sold in 2019 and the outstanding amount of Class A-1 of a variable funding note in 2023. There have been 10 whole-business securitization sales this year, totaling about $7.4 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.”, Bloomberg, October 9, 2025

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To receive our biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries.   We do not get involved in or report on politics!

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William “Bill” Edwards: CEO & Global Trade Advisor “Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global”.  With five decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other.  He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service global management consultant since 2001 helping 40+ franchisors expand into new countries. Bill knows how to turn the challenges in taking a brand global into opportunities.

For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries successfully. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896

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