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Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 127, Tuesday, February 18, 2025

Posted on Feb 17th, 2025 in Asia Pacific, Europe, India, Miscellaneous, Predictions and Trends, Professional Development, World Culture, World Economy | 0 comments

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The Global Price Of Gas, More Tariffs, China and Franchising

Commentary about the 128th Issue: In the USA the average price of a gallon of gas is US$3.42. In Iran it is 11¢ and in Hong Kong it is US$13. This issue has comparisons of tariffs countries charge each other and how each region of the world depends on cross border trade. India has a big tariff problem with the USA. Global unemployment is the lowest ever recorded but jobless rates are climbing again in both low- and high-income countries. Despite all its challenges, the European Union has a US$19 trillion economy. Long touted as an emerging country with a fast-growing middle class, Indonesia is now losing this key demographic. China continues to export more than other countries want it to.

One More Thing: In this issue’s brand section, various reports indicate 2025 will be a major growth year for the franchise business sector that will probably end 2025 with 9 million employees in over 800,000 individual businesses that collectively are approaching 5% of the USA’s gross domestic product (GDP).

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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.

PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.

Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896

https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/ +1 949 375 1896

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“I’ve learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel.”, Maya Angelou

“Happiness depends more upon the internal frame of a person’s own mind, than on the externals of the world.”, George Washington

“People do not buy goods and services. They buy relations, stories, and magic.”, Seth Godin

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Highlights in issue #128:

How Much Each Country Pays for Gas in 2025

The $19 Trillion European Union Economy

Why 2025 Will be a Big Year For Franchising — And How to Capitalize

The restaurant industry is projected to reach US$1.5 trillion in sales this year

India Plans More Tariff Changes to Curb Trump’s Trade Threats

Brand Global News Section: Hilton®, Jollibee®, Pizza Hut®, YUM China

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“Geopolitics and the geometry of global trade: 2025 update – Trade relationships are continuing to reconfigure, and changing geopolitics is a major reason. The United States has continued to shift trade away from China and toward other economies such as Mexico and Vietnam. In some cases, this is due to these economies forming an intermediate step in trade flows between China and the United States. European economies have moved away from trade with Russia and increased trade with other partners, notably the United States. Developing economies, rather than advanced ones, now account for the majority of China’s imports and exports. Economies such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Brazil, and India continue to strengthen trade ties across the geopolitical spectrum.”, McKinsey & Co., January 27, 2025

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“Singapore, Japan To Remain Property Hot Spots As Global Investors Diversify: JLL CEO – The real estate markets of Australia, Japan, Korea and Singapore will remain hot spots in the next few years as global investors seek to diversify their portfolios with demand for real estate in China and Europe continues to be soft, according to Christian Ulbrich, global CEO and president of property consultancy JLL. Real estate investments in the Asia Pacific climbed 23% to $131 billion in 2024, led by gains in Australia, India, Japan, Korea and Singapore, according to the capital tracker report published by JLL in January. Singapore—which has been attracting scores of billionaires and high-net worth individuals setting up family offices in the island nation—posted the strongest growth across the region, with global investors pouring over $11.5 billion in the Lion City, up 60% from the previous year.”, Forbes, February 17, 2025

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“Low Global Unemployment Won’t Last – Jobless rates are climbing again in both low- and high-income countries. In 2024, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and tight monetary policies contributed to a slowing global economy. Yet, global unemployment remained stable at 5 percent, its lowest level in decades. In Europe and East Asia, jobless rates fell as economies continued recovering from the pandemic and adjusted to trade restrictions and sanctions on Russia. This decline offset a sharp rise in U.S. unemployment, driven by the Federal Reserve’s high base rate, weak demand and slower hiring. The International Labor Organization does not expect unemployment to stay this low. An upward trend has already emerged in both low- and high-income countries. Meanwhile, despite job growth, real wages have declined in many nations due to persistently high inflation. The ILO sees no immediate factors that could mitigate future labor market risks.”, Geopolitical Futures, February 14, 2025

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues

“Cocoa stockpiles plunge to record low – Chocolate makers grab available reserves to counter acute global shortage. Stocks of cocoa in London and New York have plunged to all-time lows in the latest sign of a shortage that has forced chocolate makers desperate to meet Valentine’s Day demand to seek alternative ingredients. Traders and chocolate manufacturers have withdrawn most of the lower-quality surpluses at the world’s largest commodity exchanges as the market struggles to cope with years of poor global harvests.”, The Financial Times, February 13, 2025

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“How Much Each Country Pays for Gas in 2025 – This map tracks the retail price of gas in 169 countries and territories around the world. Data is sourced from Global Petrol Prices, as of Feb 3^rd, 2025. Gas is more commonly known as petrol, and also priced per liter in many places. The equivalent cost has been included in the table in the next section. Even amongst the cluster of countries with cheap gas in the Middle East, pump prices in Iran are astonishingly low. On average, Iranians paid 11 cents per gallon in the week of February 3^rd.On the other hand, people in Hong Kong paid close to $13/gallon in the same time period.”, Visual Capitalist &Global Petrol Prices, February 12, 2025

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Global, Regional & Country Travel

“Hilton Expects Leisure, Business-Travel Demand to Continue to Grow in 2025 Despite Political Challenges – System-wide top-line growth of 2% to 3% for 2025 expected, CEO says. The company is taking a more positive view on economic and geopolitical conditions as well. Business confidence has been shaken some by Trump’s proposed tariffs, though, forcing companies to scramble to adjust their operations.”, The Wall Street Journal, February 6, 2025

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“Travel agents say Canadians are cancelling U.S. trips amid tariff threats – U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened punishing tariffs, mused about making Canada the 51^st state. The threats of a trade war have led to an upswing in Canadian pride, with sports fans booing the U.S. national anthem and polls suggesting Canadian patriotism is on the rise. Now, Canadian travel agents say they’re seeing more customers cancel their U.S. trips and book vacations elsewhere, in wh’t could prove to be an impactful way of voting with their wallets.”, CBC, February 11, 2025

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Book Review

In “The AI-Driven Leader: Harnessing AI to Make Faster, Smarter Decisions,” Geoff Woods provides a comprehensive guide for executives aiming to integrate artificial intelligence into their strategic decision-making processes. Drawing from his tenure as Chief Growth Officer at Jindal Steel & Power, where he facilitated a market cap increase from $750 million to over $12 billion in four years, Woods emphasizes the transformative potential of AI when used as a strategic thought partner. Woods introduces practical tools, including effective AI prompting techniques, to enhance strategic clarity and accelerate data-driven decisions. By presenting real-world examples and prompt libraries, he equips leaders with the means to harness AI effectively, thereby amplifying employee impact and maintaining a competitive edge in an AI-driven landscape.

Five Key Takeaways:

1. AI as a Thought Partner: Leaders should view AI not merely as a tool but as a strategic collaborator to enhance decision-making.

2. Overcoming Operational Overwhelm: Implementing AI can automate routine tasks, allowing leaders to focus on strategic initiatives.

3. Effective AI Communication: Crafting precise prompts and providing context are essential for obtaining valuable AI-generated insights.

4. Accelerated Data-to-Decision Process: AI enables faster analysis and interpretation of data, leading to quicker, informed decisions.

5. Amplifying Employee Impact: Utilizing AI can significantly enhance individual and team productivity, leading to exponential organizational growth.

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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification

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Country & Regional Updates

Asia

“Asia’s emerging business corridors: New highways to growth – As geopolitical shifts affect global business corridors, opportunities are opening for companies. Asia is positioned at the epicenter to lead the way in reshaping trade and investment patterns. During this period of transition and uncertainty, Asia remains the key to global connectivity. The newly emerging and fast-growing business corridors are evidence of this. The growth of new corridors in technology, services, and green business will likely be accompanied by opportunities arising from the redirection of established business corridors. These include entrenched but nascent bilateral relations.”, McKinsey & Co., January 20, 2025

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“South-East Asian producers are being hammered by Chinese imports – Deep ties with China stymie a protectionist response. The phenomenon begins in China. Because of a property slump, dispirited consumers and the state’s resistance to large fiscal stimulus, demand is weak. In search of new drivers of growth, China has doubled down on manufacturing. Much of this is bound for export markets: in 2024 China’s net exports made up almost a third of gdp growth, the highest share since 1997. Since the start of 2021, Asean has introduced 104 new trade restrictions on Chinese goods, including both tariffs and subsidies to offset import competition….Governments taking a more protectionist response would result in higher costs for price-sensitive South-East Asian consumers.”, The Economist, February 13, 2025

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Australia

“RBA Poised to Deliver First Rate Cut in Four Years – A majority of economists in a Bloomberg News survey as well traders expect the RBA to finally begin easing tomorrow with a 25 basis-point reduction in the cash rate to 4.1%. A cut may provide a shot in the arm for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.”, Bloomberg, February 16, 2025

(RBA – Reserve Bank of Australia)

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China

“Cheap coffee and smaller pizzas help Yum China survive an uncertain consumer market – China’s economy still can’t shake its consumption slump. Retail sales in China grew by 3.5% in 2024, lower than the headline growth rate of 5% for the year, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Yet Yum China, which operates over 16,000 stores, including Chinese outlets of Kentucky Fried Chicken and Pizza Hut outlets, is finding growth in a tougher market. The company, No. 368 on the Fortune 500, managed to grow sales across both its directly owned and franchised outlets by 5% in 2024, ahead of the broader industry. Yum China launched Pizza Hut WOW in May, which offers smaller, more affordable servings for thrifty diners, including a pepperoni pizza for just 29 yuan ($4). “This kind of store is more for individuals, like a small plate of tapas,” a spokesperson told Reuters in early September. The company now has over 200 WOW outlets across China.”, Fortune, February 7, 2025

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“Chinese cars are taking over the global south – Petrol (gas) engines, not batteries, are powering their growth. China has taken a decisive lead as the world’s biggest manufacturer of cars. The number of cars shipped abroad from China reached 4.7m last year, triple the amount three years earlier, according to Citigroup (around a third of these came from multinational brands with factories in the country). The surge is set to continue—in 2030 the bank reckons sales abroad will hit 7.3m. Car-carrying vessels are departing China’s ports in ever greater numbers in part because the domestic market, where 23m passenger vehicles were sold last year, is neither as fast-growing nor as profitable as in the past.”, The Economist, February 13, 2025

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European Union

“The $19 Trillion European Union Economy – Europe’s Economic Giants Hold Their Ground. Germany, France, and Italy have long been the EU’s largest economies, driven by industrial strength, financial hubs, and manufacturing power. Together, they account around 53% of the EU’s $19.4 trillion GDP, with Germany alone surpassing the combined output of the 20 smallest EU economies. However, these top three economies saw stagnating or negative growth last year. Spain and the Netherlands round out the top five, bringing their collective share to 68%. Meanwhile, Malta posted the highest GDP growth at 5% in 2024 but remains the EU’s smallest economy at just 0.1% of the total.”, Visual Capitalist & The International Monetary Fund, February 8, 2025

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India

“India Plans More Tariff Changes to Curb Trump’s Trade Threats – India’s top officials said they will continue to cut import taxes as the government looks to work around US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose reciprocal tariffs on trading partners. Weeks after she unveiled sweeping cuts to duties on imports from textiles to motorcycles, India’s finance minister said that she will carry on the process of reforming the nation’s tariff regime. Economists said India’s higher tariff rate and a $41 billion trade surplus with the US makes the South Asian nation among the most exposed to risks if Trump follows through with plans to impose like-for-like tariffs. Analysts from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc said US tariffs on India could rise to above 15%, from around 3% currently, ‘if full reciprocity were enforced in theory.’”, Bloomberg, February 17, 2025

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Indonesia

“Indonesia’s shrinking middle class rattles businesses betting on a boom – People are falling behind as commodities giant fails to deliver well-paid jobs. Pizza Hut’s Indonesian franchisee pinned its hopes on the middle class’s expansion in the world’s fourth-most populous country. But its decision to shut 20 stores and reduce its workforce offers a warning for those betting on a consumer boom in south-east Asia’s largest economy. Businesses selling everything from pizzas to cars have been hit by Indonesia’s shrinking middle class. The number of people considered to be middle class by the government has declined 20 per cent over the past six years, a risk to the commodity giant’s growth plans and a warning for potential investors such as Apple. Economists said the decline had been triggered by a lack of formal employment, a shortage of investment in higher-income industries and overreliance on a commodities sector that has produced poorly paid work — pressures that have been exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic.”, The Financial Times, February 16, 2025

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The Philippines

“Jollibee Jumps Most Since 2020 as Foreign Ownership Cap Scrapped – Move could make stock more attractive for foreign funds. The fast-food chain, known for dishes like fried chicken and sweet spaghetti, said the Philippine Stock Exchange has approved its request which is in line with changes in its articles of incorporation that removes its ability to own, acquire or mortgage land. Apart from expanding its Jollibee brand outlets, the company has made acquisitions in recent years. It took over South Korea’s Compose Coffee for $340 million in July, following investments in a Taiwan milk tea brand in 2021 and the $350 million purchase of Los Angeles-based Coffee Bean and Tea Leaf in 2019.”, Bloomberg, February 12, 2025

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United States

“The restaurant industry is projected to reach US$1.5 trillion in sales this year – 80% of operators are optimistic their sales will be either higher than or the same as they were in 2024, according to the National Restaurant Association’s 2025 State of the Restaurant Industry report. This trajectory is driven by more than just pricing, however. The report indicates that consumers have plenty of pent-up demand, with about 80% stating they would use restaurants more frequently if they had the money (including 81% for table service restaurants, 76% for quick-service, snack, deli, and coffee concepts, and 82% for delivery). Some recent trends suggest consumers may be feeling a bit more confident with their financial status.”, Nation’s Restaurant News, February 6, 2025

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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades

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Brand & Franchising News

“The International Franchise Association (IFA) today released its annual Franchising Economic Outlook showing that franchise growth exceeded projections for 2024, even in the face of ongoing economic uncertainty and policy headwinds. On top of the 2.2% growth experienced in 2024, which exceeded the 1.9% projection, the report forecasts that franchises will grow an additional 2.4% in 2025, a faster rate than the 1.9% projected for the broader economy by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

The full report, conducted by FRANdata, is available here.

“The resilience of the franchise business model not only helped the sector survive the uncertainty of recent years, but thrive in the face of challenging economic conditions,” said Matt Haller, IFA President and CEO. “A more favorable economic and regulatory climate have created new optimism and confidence for the year ahead.

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“Why 2025 Will be a Big Year For Franchising — And How to Capitalize. Franchising is an excellent choice for the business owner who wants to join an established brand that enjoys widespread name recognition, has built customer loyalty and offers reliable, time-tested systems and processes. With a business-friendly environment and strong industry momentum, 2025 presents major opportunities for franchise expansion. AI, automation, and customer-focused strategies will drive franchise success in the coming year. Business services, sustainable brands, and fast-casual food franchises are among the most promising investments for new franchisees.

This article is by Ray Titus, CEO of United Franchise Group (UFG), the global leader for entrepreneurs. With over three decades in the franchising industry and more than 1,800 franchisees throughout the world, UFG offers unprecedented leadership and solid business opportunities for entrepreneurs.”, Entrepreneur magazine, February 13, 2025

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“5 Trends to Watch: 2025 Franchising – Franchise Brokers Face Greater Scrutiny; Increased Regulatory Uncertainty; Restaurant Chain Challenges Expected to Continue; Continued Consolidation of Franchisees; and Increased Focus on Junk Fees.”, by Greenberg Traurig in Lexology, February 10, 2025

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“Franchising Trends in Canada: Here’s What To Expect in 2025 – In 2025, franchising will continue to be a thriving and dynamic sector of Canada’s economy. However, the landscape is evolving, with shifts driven by economic trends, technology, and consumer preferences. Here are some of the key franchising trends that may define Canada’s franchise industry in 2025.”, Franchising.com, February 2025 from an article by Kevin Winters, the franchise development manager with Little Caesars Canada.

To receive our biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!

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William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.

To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com
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And download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business, used by many companies for strategic planning, at this link:

Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking

For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896

www.edwardsglobal.com

Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 127, Tuesday, February 4, 2025

Posted on Feb 17th, 2025 in Asia Pacific, Europe, India, Miscellaneous, Predictions and Trends, Professional Development, World Culture, World Economy | 0 comments

Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs and More

Commentary about the 127th Issue: In 2025, success in international business isn’t just about crossing borders—it’s about bridging cultures, leveraging technology, and adapting to rapid economic and geopolitical shifts.

As this edition goes to press, the U.S. President has announced tariffs on goods coming into the USA from Canada, China and Mexico. The situation is changing almost hourly! This issue also looks at DeepSeek, the world’s projected population growth by generations including the newest generation, Generation Beta. And the ‘massive’ global work force of 3.67 billion workers of which almost 20% are government workers.

One More Thing: The United States has the largest trade deficit of any country in the world. Last year it was almost US$1 Trillion from just the top ten countries the USA has a trade deficit with.

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https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/ +1 949 375 1896

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“In an era of shifting trade policies and technological disruption, the best global strategy is flexibility and a deep understanding of local markets.”, Richard Branson

“The companies that will thrive in global markets by 2025 are those that embrace digital trade, sustainability, and the agility to pivot amid geopolitical uncertainty.”, Christine Lagarde

“International business in 2025 will be defined by resilience: the ability to manage supply chain disruptions, regulatory changes, and new consumer expectations in a hyperconnected world.”, Klaus Schwab

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Highlights in issue #127:

What the Experts See Coming in 2025

America First Trade Policy

Powering the World: A Look at Global Electricity Generation in 2023

Visualizing the Global Population in 2035, by Generation

A massive global workforce

These Were the Busiest Airports in 2024

Foreign Investment in Africa Reaches Record $94bn in 2024

Brand Global News Section: Chili’s® and Luckin Coffee®

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

Tariff, Tariffs, Tariffs – The U.S. President over the weekend announced 25% tariffs on most goods coming into the USA from Canada and Mexico, 10% on oil and gas coming from Canada and 10% on almost everything coming into the USA from China. As of late on Monday, February 3^rd, the US President had calls with the President of Mexico and the Prime Minister of Canada and all agreed to hold off implementing tariffs for at least one month during which they would have talks to try resolve this issue.

Meanwhile, China plans to bring the new USA 10% tariffs to the World Trade Organization (WTO) for discussion. Up till now, China has either imposed or proposed tariffs on $110 billion of U.S. goods, representing most of its imports of American products. And then there is the ban on shipments from China to the USA of certain critical minerals (see below).

Needless to say, the tariff situation is very fluid. Perhaps by our newsletter on February 28 we will have more details on the actual tariffs. Or maybe not……..

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The new U.S. President issued a new America First Trade Policy on January 20. The links below are the full policy and a January 29^th analysis of the policy.

America First Trade Policy

CalChamber Analysis by Susanne T. Stirling, Senior Vice President, International Affairs

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For our Artificial Intelligence section in this issue, we will briefly look at DeepSeek which has been in the news recently. Here are some interesting articles from a variety of sources about this new AI tool that speak for themselves.

“Six things DeepSeek won’t tell you about — but ChatGPT will”, The Times of London, January 28, 2025

The DeepSeek Wake-Up Call, The Atlantic, January 30, 2025

Inside Microsoft’s quick embrace of DeepSeek The Verge, January 30, 2025

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg says DeepSeek will ‘benefit’ the company and the future of its AI business: The Business Insider, January 30, 2025

Is the DeepSeek Panic Overblown?: Time, January 30, 2025

DeepSeek says it built its chatbot cheap. What does that mean for AI’s energy needs and the climate?:

DeepSeek, Stargate, and the new AI arms race, AP News, January 28, 2025

OpenAI says it has proof DeepSeek used its technology to develop its AI model, The New York Post, January 29, 2025

“The DeepSeek controversy: Authorities ask where does the data come from and how safe is it?”, Malwarebytes.com, January 30, 2025

“How small Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek shocked Silicon Valley”, The Financial Time, January 24, 2025

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“What the Experts See Coming in 2025 – In this now sixth year of our Prediction Consensus (part of our comprehensive 2025 Global Forecast Series presented by Inigo Insurance), we’ve summarized the most common predictions and forecasts by experts into a single visual of what they expect to happen in 2025. Drawing from our predictions database of over 800 forecasts compiled from reports, interviews, podcasts, and more, the Prediction Consensus “bingo card” and this article offer an overview of the most cited trends and opportunities that experts are watching for the rest of the year.”, Visual Capitalist, January 26, 2025

Editor’s Note: This chart is, of course, already out of date but it combines input from over 800 forecasts compiled from reports, interviews, podcasts.

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“A massive global workforce – In 2023, the global workforce consisted of 3.627 billion workers. Approximately one-fifth of these people, or 675 million, were employed in the public sector……. Governments must serve their constituents and take care of their employees, including their professional development and job security. This dual mission can be challenging, given constraints such as public scrutiny, competing priorities and stakeholders, politics, budget, and citizen dissatisfaction with government.”, McKinsey & Co., January 30, 2025

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“Visualizing the Global Population in 2035, by Generation – The year 2025 marks the start of Generation Beta. This graphic compares the current population share of each generation with the projected share in 2035, based on data from McCrindle as of May 2024. Generation Beta will be born from 2025 to 2039. They will be the children of younger Gen Ys (Millennials) and older Gen Zs, and many will live to see the 22nd century. By 2035, this group is expected to make up at least 16% of the global population.”, Visual Capitalist and The Federal Reserve, January 17, 2025

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues

“Powering the World: A Look at Global Electricity Generation in 2023 – In 2023, the world relied heavily on a mix of sources to power our homes, businesses, and industries. The data from 2023 paints a picture of a world in transition. While fossil fuels still hold a strong grip, generating a combined 60.7% or 17,943.4 TWh of the world’s electricity, the increasing adoption of renewable energy sources is a clear sign of a shift towards a cleaner, more sustainable future. Clean energy sources collectively generated 39.3% or 11,619.5 TWh of the world’s electricity in 2023. While the world is transitioning to cleaner energy sources, fossil fuels still dominate global electricity generation. In 2023, coal remained a major player, accounting for a substantial 35.4% of the world’s power, generating a massive 10,460.4 Terawatt-hours (TWh). Natural gas also played a crucial role, contributing 22.6% or 6,668.7 TWh, often favored as a cleaner-burning alternative to coal.”, Visual Capitalist & Ember Electricity Data Explorer, January 18, 2025

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“Beijing’s Ban on Mineral Exports to U.S. Leaves Traders Scrambling – On Dec. 3 (2024), the commerce ministry banned shipments of gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials to the U.S., and tightened the rules on graphite exports, based on China’s Export Control Law and related regulations. China maintains a dominant position in the global production of gallium, germanium and antimony. According to estimates from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China supplied 98% of the world’s primary low-purity gallium, 60% of germanium, and 48% of antimony in 2023.”, Caixing Global, January 24, 2025

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This chart is based on data from a 27/7 Wall Street article on December 20, 2024 and gives us a glance at the U.S. trade deficit. Almost a trillion dollars each year from just the top 10 countries we trade with.

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Global, Regional & Country Travel

“These Were the Busiest Airports in 2024 – If your flight is departing from an airport on this list, be sure to build in some extra time (and patience). By calculating the airline capacity (the total number of seats), for international and domestic flights in airports across North America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, (global travel statistics provider) OAG has determined which airports truly are the world’s most frenetic. Holding firm in first place is Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport (ATL). This won’t come as a surprise—the Georgia airport has been named the world’s busiest for 23 of the 24 years the report has been published.”, Conde Nast Traveler, January 21, 2025

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Book Review

In Build Your Cultural Agility, Paula Caligiuri provides a practical guide for professionals navigating the complexities of global business. The investment in global collaboration technology now exceeds US$45 billion. Professionals who work across cultures face some of the most cognitively, psychologically and emotionally difficult challenges, regardless of whether they work virtually or in person. And they often face these challenges without the help of a corporate guide. Build Your Cultural Agility is that guide. 5 Key Takeaways:

1. Adaptability is Critical – Successful global professionals must quickly adjust to new cultural norms and business practices.

2. Emotional Resilience Enhances Performance – Managing stress and ambiguity is essential when working in unfamiliar environments.

3. Curiosity Drives Cultural Learning – Being open-minded and eager to learn improves cross-cultural interactions.

4. Building Trust Across Cultures is Key – Effective communication and respect for local customs foster strong global relationships.

5. Cultural Agility is a Learnable Skill – Through experience, training, and exposure, professionals can improve their ability to work across cultures.

Caligiuri’s book is a must-read for those looking to expand their global mindset and succeed in international business.borders.

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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification

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Country & Regional Updates

Africa

“Foreign Investment in Africa Reaches Record $94bn in 2024 – Despite a global decline in foreign investment, Africa saw a significant boost last year, largely driven by a single major urban and tourism project in Egypt. Even without this mega-project, Africa saw a 23% increase in FDI inflows in 2024, totaling $50 billion. The gains came despite a tough economic climate marked by rising interest rates, mounting public debt, and persistent political and security challenges across the continent. Asia, traditionally the largest recipient of FDI among developing regions, saw inflows shrink by 7%, while Latin America and the Caribbean experienced a 9% decline. UN Trade and Development predicts moderate FDI growth in 2025, supported by better financial conditions and a recovery in mergers and acquisitions. However, risks such as geopolitical tensions and global economic instability remain significant challenges for both developing and developed countries.”, Ecofina Agency, January 23, 2025. Compliments of Africa Alert, a regional newsletter published by colin smith.

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China

“China’s financial system is under brutal pressure – When will something break? “Short essays” appear to be causing big problems in China’s bond market. Over the past year the term has been used to refer to rumours swirling around financial hubs, which often originate with brief posts on social media that attempt to explain the inner workings of the system. One such rumour claims that the central bank is hunting down speculators who have made “illegal transactions” on the bond market. Another implies the China Financial Futures Exchange, where bond futures are bought and sold, has ratcheted up fees in order to discourage trading…..Falling (home) prices will please first-time homebuyers, but not banks. They use unsold flats and the land reserves of property developers as collateral against loans.”, The Economist, January 23, 2025

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Germany

“Germany’s Economic Model Is Broken, and No One Has a Plan B – The country is focused on exports, but China is slowing imports and U.S. tariff threats are growing. Politicians are offering few alternatives. Gross domestic product has roughly flatlined since 2019, before the start of the Covid-19 pandemic—the longest period of stagnation since the end of World War II. Most economists expect it will stagnate again this year. Most politicians are focusing on how to tweak and improve the current export-reliant, manufacturing-heavy economic model. New ideas to encourage investment and consumption, boost trade inside Europe or open up to fast-growing tech or services sectors are virtually absent.”, The Wall Street Journal, January 26, 2025

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India

“WeWork’s India franchisee files for Mumbai IPO – WeWork India has an aggregate leaseable area of 602,012 square metres (6.48 million square feet). The offer will consist of the sale of 33 million equity shares by Indian real estate firm Embassy Group (EMBA.NS) and 10.3 million equity shares by 1 Ariel Way Tenant. WeWork India is controlled by real estate tycoon Jitu Virwani and son Karan Virwani who own Bengaluru-based developer Embassy Group. Karan Virwani is CEO of WeWork India.”, Reuters, February 2, 2025

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Japan

“Bank of Japan raises interest rates to highest level in 17 years – Central bank signals more increases to come if wage and price growth hit forecasts. The Bank of Japan has raised short-term interest rates to “around 0.5 per cent”, the highest level in 17 years, as the central bank said that economic activity and wage and price inflation were at targets to justify its push to “normalise” monetary policy. The BoJ’s decision, by an 8-1 vote, raised the policy rate from 0.25 per cent to its highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis. The central bank is targeting a stable inflation rate of about 2 per cent.”, The Financial Times, January 24, 2025

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United Kingdom

“(UK) Pay after inflation rises at fastest rate since 2021 – UK pay after inflation has risen at its fastest rate for more than three years, driven by strong wage growth in the private sector. Pay packets increased on average by 3.4% between September and November compared with the same period a year ago after taking into account the impact of price rises, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Growth in private sector earnings was stronger than for public sector jobs.”, BBC, January 21, 202

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United States

“Sales of Electric Heavy-Duty Trucks Are Hitting a Regulatory Wall – Commercial prospects for the vehicles face shifting and contradictory mandates, leaving dealers in limbo. Heavy-duty truck manufacturers and dealers are caught in a swirl of shifting and conflicting rules over zero-emissions big rigs as the changing regulatory landscape undercuts the commercial prospects of the vehicles. Trucking industry officials broadly welcomed California’s move because of battery-electric trucks’ limited driving range compared with diesel and because of the scarcity of electric-charging infrastructure across the state.”, The Wall Street Journal, January 29, 2025

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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades

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Brand & Franchising News

“This Iconic Chain’s Shocking Comeback Is Outpacing Olive Garden and Texas Roadhouse – Ever since the pandemic, sit-down chains have been struggling to stay afloat. From inflation forcing the price of dining out to the healthy eating trend, fewer people have been spending their money at their local Chili’s, Outback, or Olive Garden. However, little by little, the bigger chains are building their customer bases once again. According to stats, Brinker International’s (EAT) Chili’s experienced nearly a 15 percent growth in 2024. Jefferies analyst Andy Barish called the chain ‘the most extreme example of being able to hit a value promotion at exactly the right time and then be able to support it with an incredible amount of social media spending and influencers.’”, Eat This, February 2, 2025

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“Luckin Coffee beat Starbucks in China. It’s now taking its playbook overseas to markets like Malaysia– The chain is expected to copy its successful China playbook of promotions and steep discounts in Malaysia. To commemorate the launch, Luckin priced its beverages as low as 2.99 Malaysian ringgit ($0.67). A Starbucks Americano costs about 11 ringgit ($2.50). The chain’s revenue overtook Starbucks’ Chinese revenue by the following year. Luckin also started its overseas expansion in 2023 with its first Singapore outlet; it now has 45 stores in the city-state, according to its latest quarterly filing. The chain reportedly plans to continue its expansion in Southeast Asia and even to launch in the U.S., aiming for cities with large Chinese student and tourist populations like New York.”, Fortune, January 23, 2025++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

To receive our biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

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Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 126, Tuesday, January 21, 2025

Posted on Jan 20th, 2025 in Asia Pacific, Europe, India, Miscellaneous, Predictions and Trends, Professional Development, World Culture, World Economy | Comments Off

The Year of the Wood Snake Starts on January 29, 2025

Commentary about the 126th Issue: Many more 2025 predictions in this issue, of course. It seems every publication and think tank has predictions this year. USA CEO confidence surged in December. The world’s safest and least safe airlines are ranked. Falling birth rates around the world will impact global productivity and living standards. The number of ‘BRICS’ countries are expanding but it is not clear there is much value in this shaky alliance. Wendy’s® opens its first new restaurant in 40 years in Australia. Upcoming U.S. tariffs are coming and are a BIG topic of discussion but are not defined as of the date of this newsletter – next issue!!!

One More Thing: Syria is being flooded with Pepsi and Pringles as the new rulers open the economy. The end of Assad-era restrictions on dollars, exorbitant duties and extortion leads to a boom in foreign goods once again on store shelves.

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https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/ +1 949 375 1896

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“Many obstacles melt away when you decide to boldly walk through them.”, Martin Luther King

“You miss 100 percent of the shots you don’t take.”, Wayne Gretzty, Hall of Fame Hockey Great

“Go as far as you can see; when you get there, you’ll be able to see further.”, J. Pierpont Morgan. Compliments of Beth Adkisson, Vistage Master Chair

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Highlights in issue #124:

CEO confidence surges, indicating growth in 2025

Why the Year of the Wood Snake starting in 2025 could bring major change, and more luck

The world’s safest (and least safe) airlines

Key European Markets and Their Unique Peculiarities

With Indonesia, Brics is adding Southeast Asia to its power base

Wendy’s opens first Australia store in 40 years

Small Business Sales Expectations Return To Normal

Brand Global News Section: Chipolte®, Crumbl® and Wendy’s

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“2025 Global Forecast Report” – This comprehensive report by the Visual Capitalist and Inigo taps into a wide variety of sources. Here are some of the predictions in the report:

“(GDP) Growth is projected to edge up to an average of 2.7% in 2025-26, as trade growth strengthens and broad but measured monetary policy easing supports activity.”, World Bank

“We remain optimistic that major economies can achieve sustained economic growth as interest rates ease, although the range of potential macroeconomic outcomes has widened following the U.S. elections.”, Goldman Sachs

“Globally we are at the tail end of this idea of unlimited government spending. I think deficit reduction will be the theme through 2025. And the main tradeoff here will be real GDP growth.”, Mark Meldrum

“With growing regional ties Emerging Asian economies are enjoying strong growth, driven by the dominance of their IT supply chain and supportive fiscal and monetary policies.”, Amundi

“We are concerned about three pressing issues: China/Taiwan, Russia/Ukraine, and Israel/Hezbollah/Iran/Middle East. Any or all could be the source of a further dramatic shock to the global economy.”, Apollo

“China is in a deflationary trap. They have an overbuilt real estate and infrastructure market, and you cannot remove 100 million empty homes overnight in a population that is not growing anymore.”, Felix Zulauf

“Governments in developed markets are increasingly competing with those in emerging markets for incremental manufacturing investments. With most countries having already outlined manufacturing incentives in recent years, 2025 should be the year in which capital expenditures are implemented.”, S&P Global

“Annual consumer price inflation in the G20 countries is expected to moderate to 3.5% and 2.9% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, from 5.4% this year. By the end of 2025 or early 2026, inflation is projected to be back to target in almost all major economies.”, OECD

“India will again be a bright spot for long-term investors. The country’s prospects remain solid, underscored by advantageous demographics and investments in infrastructure and manufacturing.”, Fidelity

“While some countries are trying to remain ‘non-aligned’, we expect most countries to eventually fall inside either the U.S. or Chinese ‘sphere of influence’–or at least have to lean one way or the other as the U.S. and China make it increasingly complicated to equally straddle both camps.”, Deutsche Bank

“Voters across the globe sent incumbent parties packing in 2024. We will see if that anti-incumbent mood carries over into 2025.”, James M. Lindsay, Council on Foreign Relations

“The (China) “old economy”, including sectors like housing, construction, and steel continue to experience weak demand. In contrast, the “new economy” including electric vehicles and green transition sectors are suffering from overcapacity.”, KKR

“In 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies.”, Sam Altman, CEO OpenAI

“We expect companies across the AI value chain to generate more than $1.1 trillion in revenue by 2027, just five years after the onset of ChatGPT.”, UBS

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“Why the Year of the Wood Snake starting in 2025 could bring major change, and more luck – On January 29, 2025, the celestial dragon will make way for the earthly snake in the Chinese lunisolar calendar. If history is anything to go by, the year ahead will be a time of dynamic change – much as the world experienced in the previous Year of the Wood Snake. Since each elemental animal follows a 60-year cycle, the last Year of the Wood Snake was in 1965.”, South China Morning Post, January 1, 2025

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“Tariffs on the move? A guide for CEOs for 2025 and beyond – Tariffs are top of mind for executives—and are likely to stay there. Understanding various tariff scenarios can position leaders to seize opportunities in the coming years. But despite widespread concerns, few leaders have developed robust plans to understand the second- and third-order effects and to steer their businesses through potential scenarios. Those who understand tariffs—and their likely impacts—will be better positioned to navigate the ambiguities of 2025 and beyond.”, McKinsey & Co., December 19, 2024

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“Falling birth rates raise prospect of sharp decline in living standards – People will need to produce more and work longer to plug growth gap left by women having fewer babies, report says. Many of the world’s richest economies will need to at least double productivity growth to maintain historical improvements in living standards amid sharp falls in their birth rates. Two-thirds of people now live in countries with birth rates per woman below the so-called “replacement rate” of 2.1, while populations are already shrinking in several OECD member states — including Japan, Italy and Greece — along with China and many central and eastern European countries.”, The Financial Times, January 14, 2025

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“Is BRICS+ Gathering Steam as a G7 Rival? The BRICS+ sphere is growing, adding five new members and eight new “partner” countries in in the last year. Together this bloc accounts for around 29% of the global economy in 2025, which is still dominated by the G7. The BRICS acronym initially started as a way to signal investment opportunities in fast-growing economies in the 2000s. Since then, the five founding members (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) have tried to create a platform supporting a multipolar world, with global institutions that are not funded by Western nations.”, Visual Capitalist, January 16, 2025

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“The great global redistributor we never hear about: money sent or brought back by migrants – Migrants send or bring back over three times the amount of money provided by global foreign aid. Cutting transaction fees could make this support even more effective in reducing poverty. The main beneficiaries are middle-income countries. Upper-middle-income countries send 7% but receive 30%, and lower-middle-income countries send only 4% but receive 44%. This also means that very little money reaches the poorest countries⁴, where people need it the most. Low-income countries receive just 1.7% of all money sent or brought back by migrants, despite being home to 9% of the global population.”, Our World In Data, January 13, 2025

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“CEO confidence surges, indicating growth in 2025 [Q4 Vistage CEO Index] – Heading into 2025, CEO confidence is optimistic on all fronts. The Vistage CEO Confidence Index soared 15.7 points to reach 100.8, signaling the approach of the long-anticipated growth cycle. Excluding the post-pandemic surge created by stimulus: Positive sentiment about the future of the U.S. economy spiked to levels last recorded in Q1 2017. Over three-quarters (76%) of CEOs expect increased revenue in the new year. Plans for increased investments and hiring both reached levels above Q4 2019 and the norms from the 2010s.”, Vistage, January 15, 2025

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues

“EU and Mexico revive stalled trade deal as Trump tariffs loom – The European Union and Mexico revived a stalled free trade agreement on Friday, days before the return to the White House of Donald Trump, who has threatened both sides with tariffs.

The two parties are seeking to update their trade accord from 2000, which covers only industrial goods, by adding services, government procurement, investment and farm produce. EU proponents say the bloc urgently needs new partners to reduce its reliance on China, particularly for critical raw materials, and to insulate it from Trump tariffs. Last month, It struck a deal with South America’s Mercosur bloc.”, Reuters, January 17, 2025

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“With Port Strike Averted, Dockworkers Draw New Curbs on Automation – A new six-year contract sets a 62% pay increase along with tougher standards for adding robotics to the docks. The pact would allow operators of automated equipment at ports in New Jersey and Virginia, where multiple machines are managed by a single dockworker at a time, to continue to use the semiautonomous cranes, according to people familiar with the matter. But the agreement says that companies that add semiautonomous equipment must hire one dockworker for each new crane added, the people said.”, The Wall Street Journal, January 9, 2025

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“Chinese Merchants Plow Cash Into Overseas Warehouses Amid Global E-Commerce Boom – China’s e-commerce merchants are investing ever more in overseas warehouses to keep pace with the booming cross-border trade and make deliveries more efficient. As of the end of June (2024), Chinese companies had built more than 2,500 warehouses overseas, of which over 1,800 are dedicated to serving cross-border e-commerce transactions, Ministry of Commerce data showed.”, Caixin Global, January 7, 2025

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Global, Regional & Country Travel

“The world’s safest (and least safe) airlines – A new report has named the best and worst, but is judging the safety of an airline really so straightforward? This month, a new report from AirlineRatings.com takes stock of the publicly available data to rank the world’s safest airlines. Despite a handful of accidents in 2024, the overall message on air travel from authorities remains the same as it has been for decades: flying is significantly safer than driving, with the chances of any kind of accident vanishingly small. When it comes to full-service airlines, the top spots go to Air New Zealand (in first place), followed by Qantas, Cathay Pacific, Qatar Airways and Emirates. British Airways finishes in 15th place, just above Iberia, Finnair, and Lufthansa.”, The Telegraph, January 19, 2025

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Book Review

In How the World Ran Out of Everything, Peter S. Goodman delivers a compelling analysis of how global supply chains collapsed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Through detailed reporting and vivid storytelling, he reveals how decades of prioritizing efficiency through just-in-time manufacturing and concentrated production created dangerous vulnerabilities in the global economy.

His investigation is particularly powerful when examining how supply chain failures disproportionately impacted developing nations, exposing deep inequities in the global economic system.

Key Takeaways:

Efficiency vs. Resilience: The relentless pursuit of lean operations eliminated crucial safety margins

Geographic Risk: Concentrated manufacturing created dangerous global chokepoints

Social Impact: Supply chain failures hit developing nations hardest

System Failure: Traditional risk assessment proved inadequate for global crises

Future Solutions: Strategic redundancy and diversification are essential for resilience

Goodman presents balanced solutions for building resilience while preserving the benefits of global trade. Goodman shows how the pursuit of lean operations led companies to eliminate redundancies and stockpiles that could have helped weather the pandemic’s disruptions. Through compelling case studies, he illustrates how this efficiency-at-all-costs mindset created cascading failures across industries and borders.++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification

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Country & Regional Updates

Canada

“The one way that productivity is improving in Canada – Since the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic, sales per employee for companies in the S&P/TSX Composite Index are up by about 20 per cent. This spike in productivity has translated into higher profit margins. Now at around 12.5 per cent across the market’s benchmark index, Canadian margins are on par with those of U.S. blue chips. How does this jibe with Canada’s productivity crisis? Economists have sounded the alarm over declining output per hour worked, which has made Canada 30 per cent less productive than the U.S. The first thing to remember is that the stock market is not the economy. The TSX is globally oriented, with considerable strength in the resource industries.”, The Globe and Mail, January 12, 2025

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China

“China’s population drops for third year in a row despite uptick in births – Though China’s birth rate rose this year after an all-time low in 2023, the country’s overall population continued its decline. The total population dropped by 1.39 million in 2024 to 1.4083 billion, down from 1.4097 billion people in 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Friday. Demographers have said it is possible China’s fertility rate dropped below 1.0 in 2023, but an official fertility rate for last year has not been provided.”, The South China Morning Post, January 17, 2025

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“China’s Economic Outlook in 2025 – After declaring that China had “smoothly” achieved its targets for 2024, President Xi Jinping said in late December that the nation faces a “very arduous” year of reform in 2025. He’s not wrong, at least about the second point. Many economists and market watchers think that escaping deflation needs to become China’s top priority this year. Prices are falling as households pare back spending during a property crash, prompting comparisons to Japan’s lost decades. The country’s economy needs reforms that reduce overcapacity and allow inefficient zombie firms to fail — but that would mean layoffs, making things worse in the short term. It remains to be seen how Xi will navigate these issues. But on the last day of 2024, he warned a group of politicians that ‘the journey of Chinese modernization” would include “choppy waters, and even dangerous storms.’”, Extracted from a Bloomberg article on ‘What Wall Street Banks Are Watching in 2025’, January 12, 2025

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Egypt

“IMF Pressure Breathes New Life Into Egypt’s Privatization Efforts – Egypt’s partial privatization efforts will somewhat reduce the government and the military’s role in the economy, and boost private sector engagement and market competition. However, increasing foreign currency reserves will grant Cairo flexibility in both the timeline and the extent of its privatization efforts. The International Monetary Fund, or IMF, announced on Dec. 24 that it had reached a staff-level agreement with Egypt to disburse $1.2 billion after completing the fourth review of the country’s expanded $8 billion program. To unlock the disbursement, Cairo agreed to meet the Fund’s conditions, including accelerating its ongoing privatization efforts to decrease the government and military’s role in the economy.”, RANE Worldview, January 9, 2025

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Indonesia

“With Indonesia, Brics is adding Southeast Asia to its power base – Indonesia has become the first Southeast Asian country to join Brics as a full member. Together with its Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) counterparts Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, Indonesia was invited last October to be a Brics “partner country”, a category created at the Kazan summit with a path to full membership. Among them, only Vietnam has yet to accept. As countries in the West reorient supply chains in the name of national security, Global South countries are collaborating to align their policies and build their own reliable supply chains for critical minerals and related technologies and industries.”, South China Morning Post, January 12, 2025

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Syria

“Syria flooded with Pepsi and Pringles as rulers open economy – End of Assad-era restrictions on dollars, exorbitant duties and extortion leads to boom in foreign goods. In the weeks since Assad was deposed in an offensive led by Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, imported western and regional goods have poured into shops. Around the capital Damascus, stores are now lined with Turkish bottled water, Saudi-produced bouillon cubes, Lebanese powdered milk and western chocolate brands such as Twix and Snickers. In one supermarket in the centre of the city, an entire wall was dedicated to Pringles. Foreign items used to be hidden behind counters and sold in secret to those who knew to ask. The new HTS-led government has since permitted transactions in dollars, and on Saturday announced a new set of unified custom fees that it said reduced fees by 50 to 60 per cent. It added that lower fees on raw material imports would help protect local producers.”, The Financial Times, January 12, 2025

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United Kingdom

“UK economy will outdo Germany, France and Italy, predicts IMF – UK economic growth will outpace Germany, France and Italy over the next two years, according to data from the International Monetary Fund. Gross domestic product (GDP) is set to expand by 1.6 per cent this year and 1.5 per cent in 2026, well above the projected growth rates for Europe’s major economies, according to the Washington-based group’s analysis. The United States and the UK are the only nations in the G7 to receive upgrades on their growth forecasts for this year since the fund’s last report in October. However, the IMF lowered its growth projection for the UK in 2024 to 0.9 per cent from 1.1 per cent. Spain will also outpace the UK in 2025 and 2026.”, The Times of London, January 17, 2025

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United States

“Small Business Sales Expectations Return To Normal – By industry, manufacturing was most optimistic with a net 34% expecting improved real sales. This sector has been underperforming for years, so they are looking to grow, a fresh start. Firms in finance and real estate are equally positive about sales. Firms in the two services sectors have a positive view of sales growth but less exuberant. On the downside, firms in construction, transportation and communication, and agriculture still have a negative view for sales growth. The trades were balanced, with about as many owners expecting sales improvements as expect sales declines.”, Forbes, January 17, 2025

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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades

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Brand & Franchising News

“Exploring Europe: Key European Markets and Their Unique Peculiarities – For restaurant groups and U.S.-based brands considering European franchise expansion, the continent offers a blend of opportunities and challenges. Each country presents unique cultural, economic, and regulatory dynamics that shape franchising strategies. Here’s a closer look at five key European markets and their distinct franchising landscapes.”, Franchising.com, January 2025. Article by Rebecca Viani, White Space Partners

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“Following Openings in the Middle East, Chipotle Looks to Continue Plans for Global Growth – Chipotle is increasing its strategy for international growth with recent openings in the Middle East and plans for further expansion into Western Europe and beyond. The fast-casual Mexican chain signed its first-ever development agreement with international franchise retail operator Alshaya Group in 2023 to bring the brand to the Middle East. It opened its first restaurants in Kuwait in April and in Dubai in October and will add more locations across the region in coming year. Chipotle has……taken a methodical approach and currently has more than 40 locations in Canada, about 20 in the U.K., six in France, and two in Germany.”, Franchsiing.com, January 2025

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“Bakery franchise chain Crumbl explores US$2 billion sale, sources say – The owners of the cookie chain are hoping to command a valuation for the business equivalent to more than 10 times its annual earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of nearly $150 million, the sources said. Launched in 2017 by cousins Jason McGowan and Sawyer Hemsley, Crumbl in recent years has amassed a sizable social media following across platforms such as TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube. The company, which sells its cookies in a distinctive pink box with its logo, opened its first location in 2017 in Logan, Utah, when Hemsley was finishing his degree at Utah State University. Crumbl is now present in 1,071 locations across North America, according to its website.”, CTV News, January 13, 2025

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“Wendy’s opens first Australia store in 40 years – The world’s largest franchisee operator Flynn Group is taking a punt on the Australian fast food market opening a Wendy’s store on the Gold Coast. It comes forty years after the last one closed down. Flynn Group purchased the rights to Wendy’s in Australia in late 2023 and has spent more than 15 months planning today’s opening.”, Sky new Australia, January 15, 2025

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“AI and Franchise Sales: Driving Smarter Decisions, Avoiding Costly Errors – The rise of AI and automation is reshaping industries worldwide, and franchising is no exception. From lead generation to candidate engagement, the potential for efficiency and scale is immense. However, the promise of AI often blurs the distinction between meaningful investments and tools that could lead to costly missteps. Franchise sales are not just about technology; they are about relationships, strategy, and aligning with the right candidates. Missteps in adopting AI can lead to inefficiencies, impersonal interactions, and ultimately, financial and reputational losses. For franchisors to truly benefit from automation, it’s critical to assess and refine the foundation of their sales processes. Without this groundwork, even the best AI tools can amplify existing flaws.”, Franchisesales.org, January 13, 2025. From an article by Joe Caruso.

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To receive our biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

And download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business, used by many companies for strategic planning, at this link:

Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking

www.edwardsglobal.com

Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 125, Tuesday, January 7, 2025

Posted on Jan 6th, 2025 in Asia Pacific, Europe, India, Miscellaneous, Predictions and Trends, Professional Development, World Culture, World Economy | Comments Off

Predictions, Predictions, Predictions, Predictions!!!

Commentary about the 125th Issue: This issue has links to 20+ prediction sources that cover just about everything we need to be aware of in 2025 to do business in our own countries and around the world.

This issue also covers franchise trends for 2025, the world’s top companies and the world’s richest countries, the global semiconductor industry, challenges for the global supply chain, a US$1.3 million-dollar tuna in Japan, the fact that green energy is not cheap, European Union countries may be seeing a slight economic improvement but the United Kingdom is not, a slowing of India’s economy, the decline of TGI Fridays and wonderful quotation from U.S. President Jimmy Carter.

One More Thing: Few now expect China to catch up with the U.S. before midcentury, if it manages to at all.

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You will see small ads in each edition for carefully vetted companies that serve international businesses. Please click on the ads or use the QR code to see what each of our carefully chosen advertisers can do to make doing global business easier. Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)

Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/ +1 949 375 1896

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“We must adjust to changing times and still hold to unchanging principles.”, U.S. President Jimmy Carter

“A bad attitude is like a flat tire; if you do not change it you won’t go anywhere.”, Joyce Meyer. Compliments of Judge Jim Gray

“Teamwork is dependent on trusting the other folks to come through with their part without watching them all the time.”, Steve Jobs

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Highlights in issue #124:

The World’s Top Companies by Revenue in 2024

The Value of the Global Semiconductor Industry

Franchise M&A Experts Predict Robust 2025 for Dealmaking

China Industries to Watch in 2025

Year of Global Supply Chains Turbulent Landscape

EU Economy Shows Modest Improvement

Brand Global News Section: Cava®, Doner Shack®, Lao Xiang Ji, Raising Canes®, Starbucks®, TGI Fridays® and Wingstop®

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

2025 Prediction Sources – The following twenty-one 2025 prediction sources are eclectic, very diverse and some are certain to be wrong. They cover the economy, climate change, technology, China, the Middle East, Europe, the United Kingdom and the United States, the impact of Trump’s election, trade policies, fiscal policies, geopolitical tensions, taxes, health, exports and imports, research, stock markets, bitcoin, interest rates, the U.S. dollar, tariffs, shipping, supply chain, nearshoring, energy, inflation as well as stagflation, employment and unemployment as well as many other factors that go together to impact doing business around the world in 2025. The comments and projections in these predictions are not necessarily those of the editor of this newsletter.

The Times: “Could the boosters be wrong about the global economy in 2025?” – An analysis of differing economic projections for the global economy in 2025, highlighting potential challenges and uncertainties.

El País: “La economía mundial en 2025: claves para entender un año marcado por la vuelta del imprevisible Donald Trump” – An exploration of how global economic dynamics in 2025 may be influenced by significant political changes, particularly in the United States. The article titled “La economía mundial en 2025: claves para entender un año marcado por la vuelta del imprevisible Donald Trump” from El País discusses the potential global economic implications of Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency in 2025.

FocusEconomics: “Global Economic Prospects for 2025” – A comprehensive report providing forecasts on global economic growth, inflation, and other key indicators for 2025.

J.P. Morgan: “Outlook 2025: Building on Strength” – An investment outlook discussing potential global economic scenarios, market strategies, and investment opportunities for 2025.

IMD Business School: “The Business World in 2025” – A report presenting four scenarios to help businesses stress test their strategies against potential future developments by 2025.

“What the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2025 – The experts at Good Judgment weigh in on the coming year. The Economist

Financial Times: “Business trends, risks and companies to watch in 2025” – This article discusses anticipated global business trends, potential risks, and key companies to monitor in 2025.

Convera: “Are you ready for 2025? A global economic forecast” – An analysis of anticipated global economic conditions in 2025, highlighting opportunities and risks for international businesses.

Forbes: “4 Small Business Predictions For 2025 You Must Read” – An article outlining key predictions and trends that small businesses should prepare for by 2025.

The Atlantic: “Ten Predictions for 2025” – This article explores forecasts such as teleportation testing, the decline of dementia, and solar energy becoming the largest energy source.

World Economic Forum: “Future shocks: 17 technology predictions for 2025”: Insights into technological advancements expected by 2025, including quantum computing and 5G developments.

Quantumrun: “Predictions for 2025 | Future timeline” – A comprehensive list of 785 predictions covering various sectors like culture, technology, science, health, and business.

KnowInsiders: “Prophecies for 2025 from Past and Present Seers” – An exploration of predictions from figures like Baba Vanga, focusing on natural disasters and extreme weather events.

TechAcute: “What 2025 Holds: Predictions Based on Survey” – Survey-based insights into societal and technological changes anticipated by 2025.

Eckerson: “Predictions 2025: Everything is About to Change” – An analysis of upcoming changes in data responsibility platforms and analytics by 2025.

Futurebase: “Predictions for the Year 2025 – Future Timeline” – A curated list of 31 future predictions across transport, technology, food, and health.

Ipsos: “Ipsos Predictions Survey 2025” – A survey revealing global anxieties about climate change and confidence in technological solutions.

Forbes: “What Is Bitcoin’s Price Prediction For 2025?” – An analysis of factors influencing Bitcoin’s potential growth by 2025.

The Times: “The Times view on what the year ahead holds: The World in 2025” – An editorial discussing anticipated global events and trends for 2025.

“2025 – A Year of Complexity, Caution, and Emerging Possibilities”, As 2024 draws to an end, here are the thoughts and predictions on ⑫ areas shaping the coming year from Jonathan Lishawa, award-winning IoT & Smart Energy CEO.

Business, the economy and the pound in your pocket – what to expect from 2025. Biggest cause of uncertainty posed by incoming Trump administration.

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“The World’s Top Companies by Revenue in 2024 – Today, U.S. retail giants are the largest companies by revenue globally thanks to their international reach and the strength of the American consumer. Looking beyond the U.S., many of the world’s leading companies by this measure are in the energy sector. Notable heavyweights, such as Saudi Aramco and China National Petroleum, are predominantly state-owned with expansive global operations. This graphic shows the top companies by revenue worldwide, based on data from Fortune.”, Visual Capitalist & Fortune magazine, December 30, 2024

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“The world’s richest countries in 2024 – Our annual ranking compares economies in three different ways. The Economisttherefore ranks countries by three measures: dollar income per person, income adjusted for local prices (known as purchasing-power parity, or ppp) and income per hour worked. Take America first. Its gdp has been the largest at market exchange rates for over a century. But by income per person it falls to sixth, behind Luxembourg (first) and Switzerland (second). Adjusting for America’s higher prices pushes it down to ninth; accounting for its long workdays and limited holidays, to tenth. The results for China—the world’s second-largest economy in nominal terms—are even starker: it falls to 69th by gdp per person, 75th at local prices and 97th after accounting for hours worked.”, The Economist, July 4, 2024

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“The Value of the Global Semiconductor Industry – This graphic visualizes the market capitalization of the entire global semiconductor industry as of Dec. 30, 2024. Data was accessed from Companiesmarketcap.com, and only covers publicly-traded companies.

Nvidia is currently the world’s most valuable semiconductor company, followed by Broadcom and TSMC.”, Visual Capitalist & Companiesmarketcap.com, January 6, 2025

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues

“Green Electricity Costs a Bundle – The data make clear: The notion that solar and wind power save money is an environmentalist lie. The claim that green energy is cheaper relies on bogus math that measures the cost of electricity only when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing. Modern societies need around-the-clock power, requiring backup, often powered by fossil fuels. That means we’re paying for two power systems: renewables and backup. Moreover, as fossil fuels are used less, those power sources need to earn their capital costs back in fewer hours, leading to even more expensive power. This means the real energy costs of solar and wind are far higher than what green campaigners claim. One study shows that in China the real cost of solar power on average is twice as high as that of coal. Similarly, a peer-reviewed study of Germany and Texas shows that solar and wind are many times more expensive than fossil fuels.”, The Wall Street Journal, January 2, 2025

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“Shipowners switch to smaller vessels as world trade reroutes from China – Attacks on Red Sea ships have also hit demand for bulkiest carriers. The rerouting of global trade from China to ports elsewhere in Asia is leading shipowners to move on from the era of ordering ever-larger vessels and switch to smaller crafts instead. Just six container ships capable of carrying the equivalent of more than 17,000 20-foot containers, known in industry parlance as TEUs, are due to be delivered in 2025, against 17 delivered in 2020, according to shipbroker Braemar. At the same time, 83 mid-sized vessels measuring between 12,000 TEUs and 16,999 TEUs are set to be completed in 2025, almost five times the number five years earlier.”, The Financial Times, January 1, 2025

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“Year of Global Supply Chains Turbulent Landscape – From escalating geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation to crippling labor shortages and the ripple effects of technological disruption, 2024 has been a year of adaptation and innovation, forcing stakeholders to rethink traditional approaches and embrace new strategies to navigate the complexities of a rapidly evolving global trade landscape. The U.S.-China trade war continued to cast a long shadow over the global economy, with the European Union caught in the crossfire between the two superpowers. The global supply chain faced another hurdle in 2024: a surge of excess inventory, primarily in the technology sector.”, EPS News, December 31, 2025

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Global, Regional & Country Travel

“Traveling in 2025? Here are some need-to-know changes happening next year – From new ID and entry and exit requirements to updated airline refund policies, there are notable new rules affecting tourists coming in the new year. Starting in 2025, travelers will be impacted by international travel updates, as well as by changes in domestic flight ID rules for U.S. flyers. Meanwhile, advantageous customer protections are finally being locked into place, and some airlines have announced welcome cabin overhauls.”, National Geographic, December 30, 2025

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Book Review

In On Xi Jinping: How Xi’s Marxist Nationalism is Shaping China and the World, Kevin Rudd provides a compelling analysis of Xi Jinping’s leadership style, ideological framework, and the profound impact of his governance on China and global affairs. Rudd explores Xi’s deep-rooted Marxist-Leninist convictions intertwined with Chinese nationalism, revealing how these principles drive his domestic and international policies. Kevin Rudd is the Ambassador to the USA from Australia and the former Prime Minister of Australia.

Under Xi, China has witnessed a centralization of power, aggressive economic reforms, and a return to ideological orthodoxy. Domestically, his emphasis on party discipline and anti-corruption campaigns has solidified the Communist Party’s grip on power. Internationally, Xi’s vision of the “China Dream” and Belt and Road Initiative reflect his ambitions for China to reclaim a dominant global role.

Rudd delves into Xi’s strategic calculus, highlighting how his approach diverges from predecessors by challenging the liberal international order and reshaping global institutions to align with Beijing’s interests. The book also examines Xi’s handling of critical issues, including Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the South China Sea, while addressing the risks posed by escalating tensions with the United States.

Rudd’s work provides crucial insights into understanding Xi Jinping’s China—a nation at the crossroads of its rise and its complex relationship with the world.

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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification

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Country & Regional Updates

Brazil

“How Will Brazil’s Financial Crisis Evolve in 2025? Despite financial markets’ recent turbulence, Brazil is unlikely to pursue a harsh fiscal adjustment in the coming months, meaning persistent investor concern over the country’s debt trajectory will continue to undermine macroeconomic conditions and the business environment. Economists now expect the Central Bank’s main interest rate to reach 14.75% by the end of 2025 (up from the 12.25% they forecasted in mid-November); they also expect Brazil’s inflation rate to hit 4.96% by the end of next year (versus the 4.34% forecast in mid-November).”, Geopolitical Futures/RANE World View, December 30, 2024

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China

“China Industries to Watch in 2025 – As the world’s second-largest economy, China continues to be a hub of innovation and economic dynamism. Its vast domestic market, advanced digital ecosystem, and strategic focus on modernization have made it a global leader in several industries. In 2025, China’s evolving consumer preferences, policy shifts, and technological advancements will shape opportunities for businesses and investors alike. From the rise of green technologies to the growing appetite for health-conscious products, the country offers lucrative avenues for foreign firms ready to adapt to its unique market dynamics. However, thriving in China’s competitive environment requires more than just identifying growth areas. Businesses must navigate complex regulatory frameworks, cultural nuances, and a fast-paced digital transformation. By understanding the opportunities and challenges in key sectors, companies can position themselves effectively to succeed in one of the world’s most dynamic markets. This article explores the top industries to watch in China in 2025 and provides insights into overcoming potential hurdles.”, The American Chamber of Commerce in China (AmCham), January 3, 2025 (The link can be very slow to load.)

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“China’s Economy Is Burdened by Years of Excess. Here’s How Bad It Really Is. Overindebtedness, overbuilding and overcapacity are causing problems at home and abroad. China’s rapid growth meant that for years forecasters expected China to overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy. As recently as 2019, some forecasters were expecting China’s GDP to eclipse the U.S.’s around 2030. Today, it is the U.S. powering the global economy and China that is battling stumbling growth. Few now expect China to catch upwith the U.S. before midcentury, if it manages to at all.”, The Wall Street Journal, January 1, 2025

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European Union

“EU Economy Shows Modest Improvement – The EU economy is recovering modestly but still faces significant structural adjustments and external pressures. In the third quarter of 2024, gross domestic product grew 0.4 percent compared with the previous three-month period in both the eurozone and the broader EU, fueled by steady domestic consumption and a rebound in international tourism. Rising energy costs, worsened by the cutoff of Russian gas, are straining industrial economies, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe. Southern Europe is grappling with high youth unemployment and growing sectoral inequalities, further straining social stability. Global trade uncertainties, including weaker Chinese demand and potential U.S.-EU frictions, are undermining export growth.”, Geopolitical Futures, January 3, 2025

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India

“Has the ‘India trade’ run out of steam? Slowing growth and high inflation hit household incomes and raise questions about economic fundamentals. Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. GDP growth in the quarter ended September came in at just 5.4 per cent year on year, the lowest rate in nearly two years. The Reserve Bank of India in November cut its growth forecast for the 2024-25 financial year from 7.2 per cent to 6.6 per cent. Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. India’s finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in December that the drop in economic growth was a “temporary blip”. But many economists believe the slowdown is not just seasonal, pointing to a drop in spending among overleveraged urban and middle-class Indians.”, The Financial Times, December 31, 2024

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Japan

“Sushi restaurateurs fork out $1.3m for motorbike-sized tuna at auction in Tokyo – Onodera Group paid second highest price ever at prestigious annual new year auction at Tokyo’s main fish market. Michelin-starred sushi restaurateurs the Onodera Group said they had paid 207m yen on Sunday for the 276kg (608lbs) bluefin tuna, roughly the size and weight of a motorbike. But the highest ever auction price was 333.6m yen (US$2.l million) for a 278kg bluefin in 2019, as the fish market was moved from its traditional Tsukiji area to a modern facility in nearby Toyosu.”, The Guardian, January 5, 2025

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United Kingdom

“UK economy shrinks for second month in a row – The UK economy shrank for the second month in a row in October as concerns about the Budget continued to weigh on confidence. Official figures showed a 0.1% drop, despite expectations that the economy would return to growth after a fall in September. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that activity had stalled or declined with pubs, restaurants and retail among sectors reporting ‘weak months’.”, BBC News, December 13, 2024

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“Tax rises ‘to cost businesses £2,000 more’ for each worker – The Centre for Policy Studies says low-paid workers and those re-entering the workforce will cost employers the most. The analysis showed that it would cost an average of £24,806 to employ someone over 21 earning the minimum wage — £2,367 (US$2,939) more than last year. That will partly be driven by the hourly national minimum wage rising from £11.44 to £12.21 (US$15.16) from April.”, The Times of London, January 3, 2025

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United States

“Will 2025 Be the Watershed Year for Return-to-Office Mandates? That Depends. Executives are paying attention as major companies including Amazon.com and Dell Technologies tell certain workers to return to the office full-time. Years after the Covid-19 pandemic normalized remote work, the recent developments have executives wondering which companies will pull staff back to the office next—and who will benefit. Many employers continue to see the benefits of hybrid working schedules, from the ability to attract employees to retaining top talent. But the degree of flexibility at the workplace is shifting.”, The Wall Street Journal, December 26, 2024

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Vietnam

“Vietnam’s economy smashes growth forecasts as trade-obsessed Trump returns to the White House – The Southeast Asian economy grew 7.09% in 2024, according to data released by the country’s General Statistics Office on Monday. That smashed the government’s forecast of 6.5% growth for the year, as well as last year’s growth figure of 5.05%. Exports, driven by electronics, smartphones, and garments, grew 14.3% in 2024 to reach $405.5 billion, and that helped drive Vietnam’s growth. Vietnam’s government hopes to have an even better 2025, with Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh recently expressing hope that the economy will grow by 8% this year.”, Fortune magazine, January 6, 2025

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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades

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Brand & Franchising News

“What’s Ahead for Franchising in 2025? Here are the Key Trends to Watch – With the U.S. election now settled, we have a clearer picture of what to expect for franchise development in 2025. Though nothing is completely certain, the following trends appear likely to play an important factor for franchise development teams in the coming year…..”, Entrepreneur magazine, January 6, 2025. This is an article by Rob Lancit, Stratus Building Solutions

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“Franchise M&A Experts Predict Robust 2025 for Dealmaking – Buyers are looking for new investments and sellers can get a price closer to what they’re hoping for as the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates toward the end of last year. Private equity firms have been showing increased interest in franchisees of strong, proven concepts—and that trend is set to continue, said Joe Philip of First Horizon Bank. There haven’t been many initial public offerings from franchisors in recent years. But there are indications of some IPOs to come.”, Franchise Times, December 26, 2024

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“Fast casuals had a terrific 2024. Except for those that didn’t – Wingstop, Cava and Raising Cane’s beat all odds, and others had a pretty great year, despite road bumps. But for a few, it was pretty rough. Mostly, however, the leading fast-casual players thrived this year, while restaurant chains in the quick-service and casual-dining segments struggled and were forced into aggressive value promotions to compete for inflation-weary customers. For several fast-casual brands, it was a year of menu transformation.”, Restaurant Business, December 18, 2024

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“Starbucks Is Said to Consider Selling Stake in Chinese Unit – US coffee chain speaking to advisers about China growth plans. Company gauging interest from domestic private equity firms. A stake sale could also attract interest from Chinese conglomerates or other local companies with experience in the industry, some of the people said.”, Bloomberg, November 22, 2024

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“Chinese fast food chain LXJ seeks IPO in Hong Kong amid market revival – LXJ operates 1,404 restaurants across 53 mainland cities, serving meals costing about 20 yuan (US$2.73) on average. LXJ International, which operates the largest fast-food chain in mainland China, is seeking a stock listing in Hong Kong to raise funds for expansion, after two unsuccessful attempts to float its shares in Shanghai last year. The chain, known as Lao Xiang Ji or Home Original Chicken, submitted its application to the Hong Kong stock exchange on Friday, without disclosing the size of its offering. The funds will be used to enhance its supply chain, expand its restaurant network and improve technologies, among other purposes.”, South China Morning Post, January 3, 2025. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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“Franchising Predictions for 2025 – What’s in store for the franchise sector? Franchise thought leaders share their top predictions for 2025…….. …there will be a continued focus on the people in our organizations in 2025. Creating space for them to be authentic with colleagues and focusing on their personal and professional growth will help retain great people, as well as find new ones to join the team. With hiring and retention remaining the top challenge for most business owners, franchisors and suppliers will need to prioritize strategies to support franchise owners in building strong cultures within their organizations.”, Franchise Business Review, December 13, 2024

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“Doner Shack Launches Revolutionary Franchise Opportunity in the U.S. – Primed to capitalize on the global popularity of kebabs, Doner Shack has launched a unique franchise opportunity stateside in an untapped sector primed for explosive growth. It’s a move already fueling Doner Shack’s mission to become the world’s No. 1 kebab brand. The brand, founded in 2018, continues to capture the industry’s attention, generating plenty of buzz at the recent Franchise Expo South. As part of a bold expansion strategy, co-founders Sanjeev Sanghera and Laura Bruce plan to relocate the corporate headquarters from Scotland to Miami, underscoring a bullish commitment to franchisee support and long-term U.S. growth. Doner Shack is already making waves on the global stage, with five company-owned stores, 50 franchise restaurants sold in the United Kingdom, and a flurry of development news. The brand continues to expand its global presence, recently inking a 150-store master franchise agreement in India and hatching plans for 100 stores in the Middle East.”, Franchising.com, January 1, 2025

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“The Epic Mess at TGI Fridays – The chain that spread happy hour and family dining across America has vacated its headquarters and left bills unpaid. One restaurant owner sees a revival plan. The unraveling of a chain that defined happy hour and family dinner out across America is an epic business saga that spans four CEOs, dozens of restaurant closures, bungled refinance attempts and unpaid bills that no Long Island iced tea could cure. Its U.S. restaurant count has dwindled to less than 200, including 39 locations that are bankrupt. Complex financial plans by private-equity investors to try to stabilize the company backfired when Fridays couldn’t meet certain obligations during the pandemic and beyond. Franchise owners became so frustrated with the lack of communication and direction from company leaders that some stopped paying royalties, franchisees and their advisers said. The chain that once said “in here, it’s always Friday” has seen better days.”, The Wall Street Journal, December 26, 2024

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To receive our biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

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To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com
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And download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business, used by many companies for strategic planning, at this link:

Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking

www.edwardsglobal.com

Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 124, Tuesday, December 24 , 2024

Posted on Dec 23rd, 2024 in Asia Pacific, Europe, India, Miscellaneous, Predictions and Trends, Professional Development, World Culture, World Economy | Comments Off

Navigating Global Business in Uncertain Times:

Insights for 2024 and Beyond

Commentary about the 124^th Issue: I wish all our 4,600 subscribers Happy Holidays and a prosperous and healthy 2025. It will certainly be an ‘interesting’ year for global business!

In conjunction with our last edition for 2024, we release the December 2024 GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking as places to do business, have a graphic showing the countries that make up US$115 trillion of gross domestic product (GDP) as well as a graphic that show the US$102 trillion of debt!

Inflation in first world countries is stubbornly staying a bit above 2% on an annual basis. The ‘Economist’ says Spain had the best major country economy in 2024. At the end of the year, we had 76 national elections which will have consequences on places to do business in 2025. And do not miss the special article by Don Southerton on the Impeachment of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and the International Business Implications.

A case study on how NOT to successfully take a global brand into China and India. Versus three entrepreneurs who started their first Wingstop® fried chicken franchise six years ago in the United Kingdom and have just sold their business for a whopping £400 million!

The Future: After November 5^th, searches for “Trump’s tariff plan” increased by more than 1650%, and queries about “who pays tariffs” rose by 350% (The Nightly, Australia). We expect that by the February 4^th edition of our newsletter the business world will know much more about what tariffs will be imposed by the USA.

One More Thing: The price of cocoa just hit US$12,000 per ton, up from US$4,000 per ton in February of this year!!!

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Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/ +1 949 375 1896

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“Done is better than perfect.”, Sheryl Sandberg

“Successful people keep moving. They make mistakes, but they don’t quit.”, Conrad Hilton

“Action is the foundational key to all success.”, Pablo Picasso

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Highlights in issue #124:

GlobalVue™ December 2024

The $115 Trillion World Economy in One Chart

Visualizing $102 Trillion of Global Debt in 2024

The World’s 20 Largest Economies, by GDP (PPP)

Why Dunkin’s Expansion Into China And India Was A Total Failure

How Poland became one of Europe’s biggest success stories

The Impeachment of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and the International Business Implications

Brand Global News Section: Burger King®, Dominos¢, Dunkin® and Wingstop®

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

GlobalVue™ December 2024 – This is the short version of the 40 country December ranking as places to do business in 2025. Since the September 2024 version, Japan has gone up the ranking while China, Isreal and Turkey fell down the chart. The 76 natiobnal elections in 2024 had consequences. Many countries will see changes in business taxation and regulations due to elections. Click on the chart to download the full 40 country version.

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“Visualizing $102 Trillion of Global Debt in 2024 – In 2024, global public debt is forecast to reach $102 trillion, with the U.S. and China largely contributing to rising levels of debt. As the world’s largest economy, the U.S. debt pile continues to balloon, accounting for 34.6% of the world’s total government debt. Over the next five years, China’s debt to GDP ratio is projected to hit 111.1% of GDP, up from 90.1% in 2024. In Europe, the UK has amassed the most debt, about $3.65 trillion, equal to 101.8% of GDP. This is far higher than the regional average, standing at 77.4% of GDP in 2024. Europe has a lower debt to GDP than North America and the Asia-Pacific, but European budgets likely face increasing pressures looking ahead, due to sluggish economic growth, trade wars, and aging populations”, Visual Capitalist & the IMF, December 17, 2024

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“Sorry, Mad Men. The Ad Revolution Is Here – Two advertisers are combining into a $30 billion behemoth to harness the data, tech and AI expertise now dominating Madison Avenue—and all the marketing you see. Tech giants control more than half of the $1 trillion ad market, and quants armed with reams of data direct ad buying. Now, generative artificial intelligence is sending shock waves through the marketing world, promising to create and personalize ads cheaper and faster than ever. Many industries talk about preparing for AI. With this blockbuster deal, the ad industry is trying to transform for it.”, The Wall Street Journal, December 13, 2024

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues

“The global inflation battle is stalling and diverging – Trump’s agenda and domestic uncertainty shroud the rate-cutting cycle. The global battle against inflation is entering a new phase. After price pressures dropped steeply last year, central banks in advanced economies began slashing interest rates in earnest this summer. But pulling inflation back to its 2 per cent target, persistently, has proved difficult. As the year-end approaches, fresh inflationary threats are on the horizon, and the future path of interest rates is becoming more uncertain.”, The Financial Times, December 20, 2024

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“Trump tariffs as confrontation, deterrence and art of the deal – Three possible futures for the global economy if Trump imposes new trade tariffs as threatened and vowed. The last time Donald Trump was US president, he entered trade wars with China and Europe. But despite his bravado and tariffs, the US trade deficit did not improve. In fact, it deteriorated from US$195 billion in the first quarter of 2017 to $260 billion in the same period of 2021. Scenario 1: Confrontation; Scenario 2: The art of the deal; and Scenario 3: Deterrence.”, Asia Times, December 23, 2024

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“The World’s 20 Largest Economies, by GDP (PPP) – Born during the 1970s oil crisis, the G7 emerged as a group of the world economy’s cool kids: large, mature, high-income economies dominating key global sectors.

Then, in the 2000s, BRICS showed up—a collection of countries mostly from the “Global South”— vying for influence with their steadily growing economic might, boosted by globalization. Now they’re positioned as competitors to the G7. Together, both groups are in the G20, the world’s 20 largest economies, which accounts for 70–85% of the world economy (depending if nominal or PPP-adjusted GDP is used). Despite its name, the G20 only has 19 members who are sovereign states. The EU and African Union are regional organizations that are also members of the group but are excluded from calculations in this article. This chart shows the value of each G20 member’s GDP in 2024, adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP). Data is sourced from the International Monetary Fund as of October, 2024.

Editor’s Notes: This chart compares countries based on ‘Purchase Power Parity’ and not the standard nominal GDP that most publications use.

Nominal GDP Growth measures the total economic output of a country in current prices, without adjusting for cost-of-living differences between countries or inflation. Best for comparing economies over time in a single currency.

PPP GDP Growth adjusts for differences in the cost of goods and services between countries, reflecting what people can actually buy with their income. Best for comparing living standards or economic size across countries.

In short, Nominal GDP focuses on market exchange rates, while PPP GDP accounts for local purchasing power.

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“Which economy did best in 2024? – The world economy delivered another strong performance in 2024; according to the IMF, global gdp will grow by 3.2%. Inflation has eased and employment growth remains solid. Stockmarkets have risen by more than 20% for a second consecutive year. Yet, as ever, the rosy global picture conceals wide variation between countries. To assess these differences, we have compiled data on five economic and financial indicators—gdp, stockmarket performance, core inflation, unemployment and government deficits—for 37 mostly rich countries. The Mediterranean’s rally rolls on for the third consecutive year, with Spain at the top of this year’s list. Greece and Italy, once emblematic of the euro zone’s woes, continue their recoveries. Ireland, which has attracted tech firms, and Denmark, home to Novo Nordisk of Ozempic fame, round out the top five.”, The Economist, December 10, 2024

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“The $115 Trillion World Economy in One Chart – There’s nothing quite like a big chart to really get into the data. In this edition we take a look at the massive $115 trillion world economy in 2025, along with how it breaks down per country. Data is sourced from the International Monetary Fund’s GDP estimates for 2025 (except for Pakistan). All figures are rounded and in nominal USD. Second-largest China ($19.5 trillion) will also hold its position, now on a 15-year streak. The top two together account for over two-fifths (43%) of the world’s $115 trillion GDP. Germany ($4.9 trillion) overtook Japan ($4.4 trillion) in 2024 as the third-largest economy. Meanwhile India ($4.3 trillion) passed the UK ($3.7 trillion) as 5th largest in 2020. All three countries are expected to retain their positions till 2026—when India is projected to first pass Japan for fourth, and then Germany for third place in 2028. Meanwhile, around the top 10 mark, Australia is predicted to overtake Spain for 13th place this year. And Brazil is expected to make the top eight by 2028.”, Visual Capitalist & IMF, December 19, 2024

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“Cocoa Surges Past (US)$12,000 on Supply Concerns – Dry weather across West Africa could hurt harvest volumes in the coming months. Prices have more than doubled since the start of the year, as severe droughts resulted in poor harvests in Ghana and Ivory Coast—the world’s biggest producers of cocoa beans—reducing global supplies. Low stock levels have also left the market extremely sensitive.”, The Wall Street Journal, December 18, 2024, and Trading Economics (chart)

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Global, Regional & Country Travel

“The 10 best airline upgrades that are worth the money — with flat bed seats and tons of legroom – Researchers evaluated 49 different international airlines, including Virgin Atlantic, Delta Airlines, and Qatar Airways. They included seat size and type, in-flight entertainment, food reviews, Wi-Fi availability, and overall Tripadvisor review scores. Singapore Airlines landed on top with an 87.46% overall score — that’s mostly due to its luxury business class seating that converts into flat beds with a 9.5-inch width, the experts explained. In second place was Iberia, which was able to earn a still-impressive 82.59% score. The airline’s business class cabin is the roomiest in the entire ranking, the number crunchers said, offering an average of 40 inches more than you get in economy. Delta Airlines came in third, with a ranking of 81.64% for overall experience. The airline was the only US-based and North American air carrier to crack the top ten. Qatar, Air New Zealand and Virgin Atlantic rounded out the top five, according to the publication.”, The New York Post, December 18, 2024

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“What is the strongest passport in the world? According to the Henley Passport Index, Singapore currently holds the title of the world’s most powerful passport. If you’re a Singaporean passport holder, you can travel to 195 destinations out of 227 around the world visa-free.”, The Manual, December 18, 2024

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Book Review

“Supremacy: AI, ChatGPT, and the Race that Will Change the World” – In Supremacy, Parmy Olson dives deep into the AI revolution, showcasing how artificial intelligence tools like ChatGPT are reshaping industries and altering the global power dynamic. The book highlights the fierce competition between tech giants and nations striving for dominance in the AI space. Olson explores how AI is revolutionizing sectors such as healthcare, education, and finance, enabling groundbreaking innovations while raising critical ethical questions about bias, privacy, and control.

The book doesn’t shy away from discussing the disruptive impact of AI on jobs, societal structures, and geopolitics. Olson presents a balanced narrative, celebrating AI’s potential to address global challenges like climate change and disease while cautioning against risks like misinformation and deepening inequality.

Through meticulous research and compelling storytelling, Olson paints a vivid picture of the new age of technological supremacy, where the race for AI dominance is as much about innovation as it is about power and survival.

Recognized as the Financial Times Business Book of the Year for 2024, Supremacy is an essential read for professionals, policymakers, and anyone looking to grasp the profound changes shaping our world. This is a call to stay informed and prepared in the face of unprecedented technological evolution.

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Country & Regional Updates

Brazil

“Why Brazil’s currency is plunging – Fiscal and monetary policy are now pitted against one another. THE BRAZILIAN real holds an ignominious title this year: it is the worst-performing major currency, down by more than 20% to a record low of almost 6.3 to the dollar. The slump is fuelled by panic about fiscal plans. Given Brazil’s budget deficit of almost 10% of gdp and gross debt of nearly 90% of gdp, jitters are understandable. On December 17th the central bank sold over $3bn in currency reserves in a failed attempt to prop up the real. But monetary hawkishness is not cutting the mustard. Financial markets are clamouring for a fiscal u-turn, which the government is reluctant to offer.”, The London Economist, December 19, 2024

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China

“Five Percent GDP Growth Within Sight – The November data released by the National Bureau of Statistics suggest that China’s economy rebounded significantly in the fourth quarter and it is on track to meet the 5 percent target set by the authorities. Our indicator suggests that economic activity grew more rapidly in October and November compared to the rates recorded in the third quarter (Figure 1). Most of this acceleration came from the service sector, which grew by 6.2 percent year-over-year in October-November, up from 4.8 percent in Q3. The growth of industrial value added also accelerated by a modest 0.4 percentage points.”, Yicai, December 23, 2024

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“Starbucks hires its first-ever China chief growth officer as it battles fierce local competition – Starbucks is creating an entirely new position to fix its China problem. For years, the U.S. coffee chain enjoyed success as Chinese consumers, optimistic about China’s economic prospects, flocked to Western brands. But changing tastes and tighter budgets are now pushing China’s coffee drinkers to cheaper local alternatives. Starbucks’ new chief growth officer will have his work cut out for him. The U.S. coffee company’s China revenue is falling as local chains win over Chinese coffee drinkers. Starbucks faces fierce competition from newer coffee chains with larger footprints and more affordable drinks.”, Fortune, December 10, 2024. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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South Korea

The Impeachment of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and the International Business Implications – The very timely article on this very important subject form those doing business in South Korea is by Don Southerton, THE go to person for knowledge of doing business in South Korea. From Don’s article on December 16, 2024

“The National Assembly (Parliament) has passed a motion to impeach President Yoon Suk-yeol for issuing a short-lived martial law on December 3rd. The motion suspends Yoon’s role as South Korea’s president. Prime Minister Han Deok-soo will step in as acting president to lead the nation until Yoon returns to office or until a new president is elected. The Constitutional Court has six months to review the impeachment motion. If the court upholds the motion, a new presidential election will be held within two months of the court’s decision. I assume he will be impeached, as most feel the reasons President Yoon’s grounds for martial law were political rather than his reason to “investigate election fraud manipulated by North Korea.”

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New Zealand

“New Zealand’s Economy Expected to Recover Supported by Aggressive Rate Cuts – Increased deficit will lead to sovereign debt rising to NZ$192.8 billion by mid-2025. A midyear update of the budget forecasts the farm-rich economy to grow 0.5% for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, before accelerating to 3.3% in the next fiscal year. However, the stronger growth momentum won’t speedily patch up the government’s budget bottom line with a return to surplus not expected until 2029. The pace of the economic recovery will be limited by constrained supply capacity, with weakness in labor productivity expected to continue, the budget update said. With inflation well-contained the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has indicated that significant cuts to the official cash rate are likely next year, with another 50 basis points cut in February, bringing the total reduction in the official cash rate since August to 175 basis points.”, The Wall Street Journal, December 16, 2024

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Poland

“How Poland became one of Europe’s biggest success stories – The country’s focus on productivity and EU membership have been key to growth that is the envy of bigger economies. he International Monetary Fund thinks that Polish GDP will expand by 3 per cent this year, by 3.5 per cent next year and 3.4 per cent in 2026. Many G7 finance ministers would view these rates with envy.Astoundingly, they are a slight slowdown from recent highs. Between 2004 and 2019, the Polish economy grew at an average annual rate of about 4 per cent, OECD stats show. Membership of another centralised body, the European Union, has aided Poland’s rapid economic development. After joining in 2004, the country immediately benefited from access to the single market, European labour, more public money, foreign direct investment flows and greater investor interest.”, The Times of London, December 17, 2024

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United Kingdom

“British car production falls to lowest level since 1980 – Year-on-year output was down by nearly a third in November, with electric vehicles hit hardest amid weak consumer demand. The number of cars rolling off British production lines fell by almost a third in November to the lowest level for the month since 1980, amid industry upheaval and weak consumer demand. A total of 64,216 units were manufactured in the month, down 27,711 on November 2023, in the ninth consecutive month of decline, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). Of those, just under a third (19,165) were battery electric or hybrid vehicles, representing a 45.5 per cent fall year-on-year. Overall it was the worst performance for the month since November 1980, when 62,728 units were produced….”, The Times of London, December 10, 2024

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“Budget has caused economy to stagnate, Bank of England says – Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank, said that there would be a gradual approach to cutting interest rates because of concerns over the impact of tax rises and a higher minimum wage. A survey of businesses by the Bank of England suggested that companies were responding to the £25 billion national insurance tax raid by increasing prices and cutting jobs.”, The Times of London, December 10, 2024

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United States

“Burger chain named as America’s most expensive fast-food restaurant: ‘Overpriced’ – Customers have complained of price increases at fast-food chains amid inflation. The study conducted by Preply said Shake Shack was ranked the most overpriced restaurant for chains, followed by Five Guys and the Sugar Factory. To make their determinations, researchers analyzed the language of 57,245 reviews for over 10,000 restaurants in 50 cities across the country. To determine the scores for being overpriced, the authors looked for keywords — such as “pricey” or “rip-off” — in restaurant reviews in each city and analyzed how frequently they were used by patrons. The study comes as many restaurants and fast-food chains have hiked prices. In May, McDonald’s USA President Joe Erlinger defended the hikes, refuting reports that the increases were significant.”, Fox Business, December 18, 2024

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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades

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Brand & Franchising News

“Why Dunkin’s Expansion Into China And India Was A Total Failure – When Dunkin’ brought its signature pink-and-orange branding overseas to China and India, the company found that the average consumer didn’t quite resonate with donuts for breakfast. To counteract this, Dunkin’ implemented some small menu changes to help regionalize its menu to the unique tastes and palates of these nations. In 1994, Dunkin’ (then known as Dunkin’ Donuts), attempted to break into the Chinese market. While the company had great aspirations for success, the brand wasn’t strong enough in China to get consumers into its cafés as it expected. 1n 2012, Dunkin’ chose to provide exclusivity in its Indian franchising to Jubilant FoodWorks Ltd., a food service company with over 3,000 restaurants across six global markets. Since 1996, Jubilant FoodWorks has been responsible for the highly successful Indian expansion of Domino’s Pizza, which saw its 2,000th store opening in June 2024. But unlike Domino’s, Dunkin’ struggled to connect with the average Indian consumer. For one, the American-style, on-the-go breakfast isn’t the norm in the country….Dunkin’s signature item — the donut — isn’t regarded as a breakfast food in India, but rather a sweet pastry that’s consumed as a dessert from time to time on special occasions.”, Tasting Table, December 22, 2024

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“Fried chicken trio in line for fortune after selling much-loved chain for a whopping £400MILLION to US firm – after winging it and starting restaurant from scratch six years ago – Three entrepreneurs who started a fried chicken franchise have sold their business for a whopping £400million. In one of the biggest take-overs deals for a restaurant brand in Britain, the UK arm of Wingstop will be acquired by California-based private equity firm Sixth Street. The restaurant was started from scratch in 2018 by Tom Grogan, Herman Sahota, and Saul Lewin who opened the first Wingstop in central London. The company now boasts 57 sites and employs 2,500 staff, The Times reports.”, The Daily Mail, December 22, 2024

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“Bain Capital in talks to acquire mega-franchisee Sizzling Platter, report says – The Utah-based franchise group operates more than 750 restaurants across eight brands, including Little Caesars, Wingstop, Dunkin’ and more. The mega-franchisee is owned by CapitalSpring, which has been working with investment bankers at UBS and Deutsche Bank on a sale process for several months, according to the report. Bain Capital acquired the casual-dining chain Fogo de Chao last year, and was reportedly in talks to acquire Subway at one point, but the sandwich chain was sold in the end to Roark Capital for nearly $10 billion.”, Restaurant Business Online, December 10, 2024

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“UK’s Domino’s Pizza eyes digital growth with new franchise deal – The UK’s Domino’s Pizza Group (DPG) (DOM.L) has reached a new five-year agreement with its franchise partners, it said on Monday, as the fast-food chain looks to expand its store network and increase investment in its digital platform. The new Profitability and Growth Framework, which the company said had the “unanimous support” of its franchise partners, allows for shared investment in marketing and technology, and provides incentives for new store openings. The London-listed pizza chain, which operates under the umbrella of U.S.-based Domino’s Pizza (DPZ.N) in the UK and Ireland, is targeting 2 billion pounds ($2.55 billion) of sales by 2028 from more than 1,600 stores, around 200 more than currently.”, Reuters, December 9, 2024

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