Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 113, Tuesday, July 23, 2024
Commentary about the 113th Issue: Average salaries in 30 countries. Regenerative AI and the world’s software market. Microsoft orders all China staff to use iPhones. U.S. fast food chains raise prices more then 50% in the last ten years. Canada set to be the fastest growing G7 country in 2025. How to stay healthy at 35,000 feet.Commentary about the 113th Issue: Average salaries in 30 countries. Regenerative AI and the world’s software market. Microsoft orders all China staff to use iPhones. U.S. fast food chains raise prices more than 50% in the last ten years.
How to stay healthy at 35,000 feet. Saudi Arabia allows first sale of alcohol (really!). U.S. must add 290 terawatt hours of electricity by 2030. Olive Garden® parent buys Chuy’s®. McDonald s plans to have more than 10,000 restaurants in mainland China by 2028. Fossil fuels made up 81% of global energy consumption in 2023. India projects growth of 6.5%-7% vs 8.2% last year. And the United States and China combine for a massive 43.2% share of the global economy.
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with any questions, comments and contributions.
Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896
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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“Train people well enough so they can leave, treat them well enough so they don’t want to.”, Richard Branson, business magnate and founder of Virgin Group
“Get the right people. Then no matter what all else you might do wrong after that, the people will save you. That’s what management is all about.”, Tom DeMarco, software engineer
“Of all the things I’ve done, the most vital is coordinating the talents of those who work for us and pointing them toward a certain goal.”, Walt Disney
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Highlights in issue #113:
- Average Annual Salaries by Country
- Economic conditions outlook, June 2024
- Microsoft Orders China Staff to Use iPhones for Work and Drop Android
- Inflation Across U.S. Fast Food Chains (2014-2024)
- Small Businesses Still Struggling
- Staying Healthy at 35,000 Feet
- Brand Global News Section: Chuy’s®, Dominos®, Herbalife®, McDonalds®, Olive Garden® and Sol Bowl®
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“Software’s byte of the gen AI apple – Generative AI’s (gen AI’s) quick adoption over the past year suggests that the global software sector will undergo a major change, senior partner Jeremy Schneider and coauthors note. But based on a McKinsey survey of software leaders and executives, it is anticipated that gen AI will affect each software category to a different degree. Content creation is one of three areas expected to see a very high level of disruption, while system infrastructure is on the other end of the disruption spectrum. Overall, gen AI could spark almost $300 billion in new software spending over the next few years.”, McKinsey & Co., July 9, 2024
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“Economic conditions outlook, June 2024 – Executives’ views on the world economy remain more positive than negative, though they believe a recession is increasingly likely. In their own economies, concerns over unemployment are growing. So far in 2024, survey respondents seem more sanguine about the economy than they were for much of 2023. In our newest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions,1 respondents tend to say that conditions in their countries and globally are improving rather than declining and will continue to improve in the months ahead. Yet they also foresee a few clouds gathering on the horizon.”, McKinsey & Co., June 27, 2024
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“Help wanted: Charting the challenge of tight labor markets in advanced economies – Labor markets in advanced economies today are among the tightest in two decades, not merely a pandemic-induced blip but rather a long-term trend that may continue as workforces age. Tightness means forgone economic output. We estimate that GDP in 2023 could have been 0.5 percent to 1.5 percent higher across these economies if employers had been able to fill their excess job vacancies. Companies and economies will need to boost productivity and find new ways to expand the workforce. Otherwise, they will struggle to exceed—or even match—the relatively muted economic growth of the past decade.”, McKinsey & Co., June 28, 2024
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“WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE – Global growth is projected to be in line with the April 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, at 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025. However, varied momentum in activity at the turn of the year has somewhat narrowed the output divergence across economies as cyclical factors wane and activity becomes better aligned with its potential. Services price inflation is holding up progress on disinflation, which is complicating monetary policy normalization. Upside risks to inflation have thus increased, raising the prospect of higher-for-even-longer interest rates, in the context of escalating trade tensions and increased policy uncertainty. To manage these risks and preserve growth, the policy mix should be sequenced carefully to achieve price stability and replenish diminished buffers.”, International Monetary Fund, July 2024
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“Average Annual Salaries by Country – There are many reasons for why salaries vary between countries: economic development, cost of living, labor laws, and a variety of other factors. Because of these variables, it can be difficult to gauge the general level of income around the world. With this in mind, we’ve visualized the average annual salaries of 30 OECD countries, adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP). This means that the values listed have taken into account the differences in cost of living and inflation between countries. This data was sourced from the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), an international organization that promotes policies to improve economic and social well-being. It has 38 member countries, though in this instance, data for all of them was not available.”, OECD & Visual Capitalist, July 17, 2024
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“The world population is projected to peak slightly earlier than in previous projections – The United Nations doesn’t only publish historical estimates of how population and demographic trends have changed in the past; it also makes projections for what the future might look like. To be clear, these are projections, not predictions of changes in the future. In its 2022 publication, the UN estimated that, in its medium scenario, the global population would peak in 2086 at around 10.4 billion people. This year’s edition brings this peak forward slightly to 2084, with the population topping at just under 10.3 billion.”. Our World In Data, July 11, 2024
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“Inflation Across U.S. Fast Food Chains (2014-2024) – Fast food joints were once the go-to option for quick, cost-friendly meals, but now, they’re starting to pinch the budget.
Inflation has hit fast food chains hard in the past decade, with many restaurants seeing an average price increase on menu items of more than 50%. This graphic visualizes the average price increase of 10 core menu items from select American fast food chains, as well as the change in the consumer price index (U.S. city average) for food away from home, from 2014 to 2024.”, FianceBuzz and the Federal Reserve, July 12, 2024
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“New Labor Unrest Hits U.S. Ports – The peak shipping season is getting underway with another threat of labor disruption at American ports. The union representing about 45,000 workers at ports from Maine to Texas and the seaport employers are in a standoff with no negotiations on the calendar and the current longshore contract due to expire in a little over two months. German port workers are considering a “final offer” from employers after staging several walkouts in recent weeks. (Maritime Executive). A vote at a Coventory warehouse to force Amazon to recognize a union for the first time in the U.K. fell just short of a majority. (Financial Times).”, The Wall Street Journal, July 2024
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“Maersk says Red Sea shipping disruption having global effects – DENMARK’S AP Moller-Maersk said on Wednesday (Jul 17) that disruption to its container shipping via the Red Sea had extended beyond trade routes in the far east of Europe to its entire global network. Shipping groups have diverted vessels around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope since December to avoid attacks by Iran-aligned Houthi militants in the Red Sea, with the longer voyage times pushing freight rates higher. “Ports across Asia, including Singapore, Australia, and Shanghai, are experiencing delays as ships reroute and schedules are disrupted, caused by ripple effects from the Red Sea,” it said in a statement.”, The Business Times, July 17, 2024
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“2024 Statistical Review of World Energy – What Powered the World in 2023 – Fossil fuels continue to power the world. While a lot of spotlight in the energy industry is on the clean energy transition to renewable sources, fossil fuels continue to reign supreme when it comes to the world’s production and consumption of energy. Global production and consumption of coal, oil, and natural gas all increased in 2023, and as a result fossil fuels made up 81% of global energy consumption as shown above.”, Visual Capitalist & Energy Institute, July 2024
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Global & Regional Travel & Living
“Staying Healthy at 35,000 Feet – With the summer travel season in full swing, board-certified infectious disease physician Carl Abraham, M.D., assistant professor at the College of Osteopathic Medicine’s Jonesboro location (NYITCOM-Arkansas), arms passengers with information to stay healthy at 35,000 feet. Abraham notes that some people may be surprised about the risk of germ spread on most airplanes. ‘Disinfecting touched objects, like seatbelts or trays, won’t hurt, although airlines are supposed to make sure areas are cleaned thoroughly between flights,’ he adds. But, the real hotspot might be the airplane lavatory.”, New York Tech news, July 2, 2024
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Book Review – New Section
“The Fast Future Blur: Discover Transformative Interconnections Shaping the Future – Fast Future Blur provides invaluable insights and strategic frameworks to navigate the complexity of our current period of rapid and radical transformation (‘Fast Future’ phase). Focused on the interconnected nature of the evolution underway, the book serves as an eye-opener for business leaders, providing guidance in understanding this dynamic and complex landscape. Fast Future Blur delves into 12 key areas of change, including platform businesses, regenerative innovation, artificial intelligence, the future of healthcare, the future of work, the future of mobility, blockchain, metaverse, virtual & augmented reality, leadership, agility, fintech, and the impact from 6 inter-connections. With compelling, powerful, and timely insights from the Fast Future Executive faculty ― a global consortium of experts and industry leaders, many of whom are associated with the World Economic Forum, top business and technology schools and leading global companies.”, Amazon, July 2024
Editor’s Note: I attended a session of The Fast Future Blur 2024 Summit on June 11th at the Executive Next Practices event at the University of California, Irvine, Beall Center for Innovation. We had 19 speakers from the Fast Future Executive faculty who came in from around the world. Wow!
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Book Review – New Section
“The Fast Future Blur: Discover Transformative Interconnections Shaping the Future – Fast Future Blur provides invaluable insights and strategic frameworks to navigate the complexity of our current period of rapid and radical transformation (‘Fast Future’ phase). Focused on the interconnected nature of the evolution underway, the book serves as an eye-opener for business leaders, providing guidance in understanding this dynamic and complex landscape. Fast Future Blur delves into 12 key areas of change, including platform businesses, regenerative innovation, artificial intelligence, the future of healthcare, the future of work, the future of mobility, blockchain, metaverse, virtual & augmented reality, leadership, agility, fintech, and the impact from 6 inter-connections. With compelling, powerful, and timely insights from the Fast Future Executive faculty ― a global consortium of experts and industry leaders, many of whom are associated with the World Economic Forum, top business and technology schools and leading global companies.”, Amazon, July 2024
Editor’s Note: I attended a session of The Fast Future Blur 2024 Summit on June 11th at the Executive Next Practices event at the University of California, Irvine, Beall Center for Innovation. We had 19 speakers from the Fast Future Executive faculty who came in from around the world. Wow!
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Country & Regional Updates
Canada
“Canada set to be fastest growing economy in G7 in 2025, IMF forecasts – Latest outlook puts this country ahead of United States and United Kingdom. The IMF predicts the global economy is headed toward a “soft landing,” but warns risks remain for the inflation outlook, especially in advanced economies. ‘The good news is that, as headline shocks receded, inflation came down without a recession’, wrote Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, economic counsellor and the director of research at the IMF, in a blog post accompanying the release. “The bad news is that energy and food price inflation are now almost back to pre-pandemic levels in many countries, while overall inflation is not.”, International Monetary Fund, July 2024
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China
“Microsoft Orders China Staff to Use iPhones for Work and Drop Android – Company will block corporate access from Android in China Microsoft has been tightening cybersecurity following attacks. Microsoft has been ramping up security worldwide after incurring repeat attacks from state-sponsored hackers. Microsoft Corp. told employees in China that starting in September they’ll only be able to use iPhones for work, effectively cutting off Android-powered devices from the workplace. The US company will soon require employees based there to use Apple Inc. devices to verify their identities when logging in, according to an internal memo reviewed by Bloomberg News.”, Bloomberg, July 8, 2024
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“Comparing the Economies of U.S. and China in 3 Key Metrics – Starting with GDP, we used 2024 estimates from the latest edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (April 2024). Based on these figures, the United States and China combine for a massive 43.2% share of the global economy. It’s also interesting to note that America’s share of global GDP has actually been increasing in recent years, from a low of 21.1% in 2011. This is partly due to its relatively strong recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The U.S. dominates when it comes to stock market valuation, accounting for 61% of the global total as of Feb. 29, 2024.”, Visual Capitalist & International Monetary Fund, June 3, 2024
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India
“India Sets Subdued Economic Growth Forecast as Risks Mount – Government projects growth of 6.5%-7% vs 8.2% last year Finance minister to give annual budget speech on Tuesday. India’s government set a fairly conservative economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year, concerned about mounting global risks. The economy will likely expand 6.5%-7% in the year through March 2025, the Ministry of Finance said its Economic Survey report released Monday. That compares with 8.2% in the past financial year and the central bank’s projection of 7.2% for the current year. Modi must also balance demands from his coalition allies to spend billions of dollars in their states, with pressure from credit rating companies to curb government debt.”, Bloomberg, July 22, 2024
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Japan
“More than 40% of Japanese companies have no plan to make use of AI – The survey, conducted for Reuters by Nikkei Research, pitched a range of questions to 506 companies over July 3-12 with roughly 250 firms responding, on condition of anonymity. About 24% of respondents said they have already introduced AI in their businesses and 35% are planning to do so, while the remaining 41% have no such plans, illustrating varying degrees of embracing the technological innovation in corporate Japan. Asked for objectives when adopting AI in a question allowing multiple answers, 60% of respondents said they were trying to cope with a shortage of workers, while 53% aimed to cut labour costs and 36% cited acceleration in research and development.”, Reuter, July 17, 2024
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Saudi Arabia
“Saudi Arabia takes first step towards relaxing alcohol laws – Saudi Arabia has opened an off-licence in the diplomatic quarter of its capital, Riyadh, which is the kingdom’s first commercial outlet for the sale of alcohol beverages since a ban on the public sale and consumption of alcohol was imposed in 1952. We expect further relaxation of alcohol laws, together with the implementation of other social reforms and initiatives, in the years ahead as the government pushes ahead with its transformative Vision 2030 development plan, which includes the creation of a tourism offering that boasts major hotels, resorts, entertainment venues, sporting locations and (currently alcohol-free) restaurants and bars.”, Economist Intelligence Unit, February 23, 2024
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“One crucial piece of advise for business in Saudi – Landing that lucrative contract or big deal in Saudi Arabia requires much more than an impressive pitch deck and competitive pricing. One of the most crucial pieces of advice for doing business in the Kingdom is this: take the time to deeply understand the culture and build strong relationships before ever pitching your products or services. Why is this so important? Saudi Arabian culture places an extremely high value on personal connections, trust, and commitment. Saudis want to work with those they know and have established a bond with. Attempting to jump straight into business negotiations without first investing in relationship building is a surefire way to be met with skepticism and difficulty gaining traction.”, Middle East Sunday Pages by Corina Goetz, July 21, 2024
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Southeast Asia
“Southeast Asia’s economies continue to sustain their growth momentum in the first quarter 2024. GDP grew in all economies, with growth in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore increasing during this period, while Thailand and Vietnam recorded slower growth. Southeast Asia’s economies continue to sustain their growth momentum in the first quarter 2024. GDP grew in all economies, with growth in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore increasing during this period, while Thailand and Vietnam recorded slower growth.”, McKinsey & Co., June, 2024
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Turkey
This country has seen its wealth growth explode since 2008. It’s not the U.S. – Individual wealth has been soaring since 2008 in places some might find surprising, such as Turkey. That’s according to UBS’s 2024 Global Wealth Report, released on Wednesday. The report shows that globally, people have been getting progressively wealthier, with dramatic rises in some places. This chart shows average wealth growth from 2022 to 2023 in local currencies. On this metric, Turkey has surged above the rest at more than 157% (in dollar terms, that growth is 63%).”, MarketWatch, July 10, 2024
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United States
“U.S. will fall behind in the AI race without natural gas, Williams Companies CEO says – ‘The only way we’re going to be able to keep up with the kind of power demand and the electrification that’s already afoot is natural gas,’ Williams Companies CEO Alan Armstrong said in an interview Thursday. ‘If we deny ourselves that we’re going to fall behind in the AI race.’ The tech sector’s expansion of data centers to support AI and the adoption of electric vehicles is projected to add 290 terawatt hours of electricity demand by the end of the decade in the U.S., according to a recent report by the energy consulting firm Rystad. This load growth is equivalent to the entire electricity demand of Turkey, the world’s 18th largest economy.”, CNBC, July 19, 2024
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“Small Businesses Still Struggling – Small business (SMB) owners continue to face economic headwinds, including rent delinquency and revenue loss and stress around high interest rates and spiking labor costs. That’s according to Alignable’s June Revenue & Rent Report. The report was based on 3,690 responses to a poll of randomly selected small business owners in June. It also drew information from past survey responses. 72% of SMBs are earning less now monthly than pre-Covid, a slight increase from May’s 71%, breaking a 2024 record. Post-pandemic businesses are also struggling with 72% earning less than last year. Cumulative inflation—35% of SMB owners cite this as their top worry, up from 33% in May. Rising labor costs—79% of SMB employers are paying more for labor, up nine percentage points from May. Cash crisis—38% of SMBs have one month or less of cash on hand.”, Franchising.com, July 18, 2024
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Brand & Franchising News
“Olive Garden parent Darden Restaurants is buying Chuy’s for $605M – It will be the second acquisition for Darden in as many years and brings Mexican cuisine to its portfolio for the first time. Chuy’s has 101 restaurants and specializes in Tex-Mex cuisine. Darden Restaurants, the parent of Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse and other casual-dining brands, is acquiring Chuy’s Tex-Mex for $605 million in cash, the company announced Wednesday. The 101-unit, Austin-based Chuy’s is known for its scratch-made Tex-Mex cuisine and the funky, eclectic atmosphere of its restaurants.”, Restaurant Business, July 17, 2024
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“China Isn’t Done Tormenting Nike or Starbucks – Global Brands Hit Local Competition. China has become a more challenging market for global consumer brands like Nike and Starbucks, and investors are beginning to rethink the value of their Chinese business, according to a new report from TD Cowen analysts. Chinese consumers still like global brands like Nike, Adidas, Skechers andLululemon, which each generate a midteen share of their sales from China. But investors are beginning to discount the cash flows that companies generate from China as domestic competition and geopolitical risks intensify, TD Cowen analyst John Kernan, who co-wrote the report, tells Barron’s. Shares of some of these companies have already taken a hit as China’s economic recovery has sputtered, making consumers reluctant to spend as the property market—a major store of household wealth—is still struggling.”, Barron’s, July 18, 2024
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“Aussie boxing franchise UBX to enter United Arab Emirates – Brisbane-based boxing franchise UBX has announced its eighth international expansion with 18 locations planned in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), adding to an existing 100-plus gyms globally and hot on the heels of its recent campaign launch “Boxing is for Everyone” with adidas.
The company has appointed Mohsan Bari as the master franchisor for UBX UAE with initial sites being sourced in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. ‘In recent years, the Middle East has become a hotspot for combat sports, and the UAE’s enthusiasm for boxing makes it the perfect next step for UBX as interest in the sport is followed by participation,’ says UBX co-founder and managing director Tim West.”, Business New Australia, July 17, 2024
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“Domino’s to shutter 100 stores – The board of Domino’s Pizza Enterprises (Australia) waited until after the market closed yesterday to announce store closures in two of its largest markets, Japan and France, which will almost entirely offset the net effect of planned store growth globally over the course of FY25.”, Business News Australia, July 18, 2024
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“Herbalife expects China to become its largest market – China is expected to double the size of Herbalife’s India market in about five years, which is currently its largest in terms of sales, Herbalife President Stephan Gratziani said in Shanghai. The United States-based nutrition product manufacturer is confident in the Chinese market given the growth potential in the country’s health and well-being sector. ‘In 5-7 years, China is expected to double the size of our India market, which is currently its largest market in terms of sales followed by the US and Mexico,’ Gratziani said in a recent interview. Currently, Herballife service providers operate about 3,200 community health-care and nutritional advisory clubs in China, and the number could grow significantly in the coming years given the potential, especially in lower tier cities.”, Shine, July 17, 2024. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
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“McDonald s plans to have more than 10,000 restaurants in mainland China by 2028 with more than 60 percent of employees born after 1995 – McDonald’s entered the Chinese mainland market in 1990. In 2017, McDonald’s China became McDonald’s largest international franchise market in the world, and CITIC Consortium became the controlling shareholder. Before the “Golden Arches” era, McDonald’s focused more on market development in first- and second-tier cities. Now, about 50% of McDonald’s restaurants are located in third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities.”, Yicai, July 17, 2024
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“Piccolo Me parent plans 100 stores for Sol Bowl acquisition – Piccolo Me parent company FABE (Food and Beverage Enterprises) has added Sydney-based Sol Bowl to its portfolio of food brands. FABE has big goals for its newest addition: 100 stores, international expansion and co-branding with Piccolo Me. There are another five Sol Bowl sites planned for New South Wales and ACT before FABE takes the brand interstate. Sol Bowl founder Lilly Semaan launched the healthy-fast-food business as Soul Bowl in Parramatta in 2017. She has since refined the branding and added locations in Baulkham Hills and Rosehill.”, Inside Retail (Australia), July 17, 2024
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.
For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
And download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business, used by many companies for strategic planning, at this link:
Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking
Global Business Predictions for 2019
Despite global trade fears, new investment projects and new business development around world in 2019 will continue to be tied to a country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. Generally, the higher the annual GDP growth rate in country, the more new investment is being made in an economy.
While the International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes global growth will slow a bit to about 3.7% in 2019, there remain several countries where the annual GDP growth rate will exceed 5%, including China, India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. These high annual GDP growth countries have rapidly growing middle classes that need high growth rates to ensure there are sufficient jobs for the young consumer.
Argentina – “IMF support and fiscal reforms have pleased financial markets, but high interest rates are slowing domestic consumption and the economy is expected to have GDP growth of less than 2% in 2019. The second half of 2019 will be the time to begin looking at this market again.” Robert Jones, Chief International Officer, EGS
Brazil – Although the recent election of new President Jair Bolsonaro is somewhat of a wild card, he is expected to push fiscal reforms during his first year signaling a very positive message to the market, attracting domestic and foreign investors. Pro-business policies are expected to stimulate the economy and generate 2.4% GDP growth in 2019, creating new opportunities for foreign brands.
Canada – A GDP growth rate of 1.7% due to lower oil prices, new employment laws and regulations plus high business taxes will keep new brand investment and development down in this country in 2019.
Chile – Continued strong domestic demand and solid fiscal discipline should result in a GDP growth rate of 3.4% in 2019, making Chile a solid prospect for foreign brands.
China – Trade tensions with the U.S. and EU, as well as Chinese government controls and barriers, have increased the foreign investment difficulty factor in this market. GDP is expected to slow to 6.3% in 2019 as the government attempts to establish a more sustainable level of growth for the long-term. This ‘low’ GDP growth relative to recent years may be tied to lower consumer spending for the first time in almost 30 years
India – Although higher oil costs are a drag on the economy, GDP growth is expected to exceed 7% in 2019. This is slightly down form 2018. If the government implements regulatory and economic reforms, which it has announced it will do, the business climate could improve for foreign companies in 2019.
Indonesia – Strong domestic demand is expected to sustain a GDP growth rate of 5.2% in 2019. Foreign brand investment will continue due to the rapidly growing middle class consumer base. The presidential election needs watching for its impact on consumer confidence.
Italy – A higher fiscal deficit and disagreement with the EU regarding the new government’s budget have resulted in an estimated GDP of 1.2% in 2019; however, American brands are popular in this market and there is a demand despite the economy’s challenges.
Japan – Manufacturing has recently slowed somewhat and varying oil prices are a negative, but increasing domestic demand should maintain a GDP growth rate of 1.1% in 2019. This relatively low annual GDP growth rate is still good for this economy
Middle East – “The Middle East (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain), has experienced an economic contraction over the past several years with lower oil prices. Nevertheless, the restaurant segment continues to be strong. Retail is highly competitive and the B2B and B2C sectors offer limited opportunity for compelling new investment opportunities.” Paul Cairnie, CEO, World Franchise Associates.
Peru – Consumer spending is up, the government is pro-business growth, and increased export growth supports a prediction of 4% GDP growth for 2019, providing a solid opportunity for new investors.
Philippines – With an expected GDP growth rate of 6% in 2019, a fast-growing middle class consumer base, and a robust new investment environment, this country will continue to see continued new international brand entry this coming year.
Poland – Although the country’s very strong growth is expected to moderate somewhat in 2019, the current estimate of 3.6% is one of the European Union’s highest economic growth rates. This market offers solid opportunities for foreign franchisors, but market analysis and selection of the correct partner are keys for success.
Saudi Arabia – The 2019 GDP growth rate is expected to be an anemic 2% in 2019. Low oil prices, little new local investment plus fallout from recent legal issues, mean little new foreign investment in 2019.
Singapore – Weaker manufacturing will be offset by stronger consumer demand, with a 2.9% GDP growth rate estimated for 2019. Anti-immigrant legislation has made finding service workers difficult and choice retail space is priced at a premium.
South Africa – With a new government, the country could have an estimated GDP growth rate of 1.7% due to a program of fiscal stimulus. But security and rule of law challenges remain in a country with a huge middle class consumer upside.
Spain – Although 2019 annual GDP growth is expected to slow down from 2.7% in 2018, the pace of new development should continue to be high, especially in the food and beverage sector, in 2019. Retail rents are the price level before the 2008 recession.
Thailand – “As a center for global tourism, Thailand supports more international brands than its own population could support. It is also an excellent showcase of brands and proof-of-concept for the region. The Thai international brand market is crowded and tightly focused on selected urban areas. But there is a subset of strong, risk tolerant and qualified investors willing to invest in well-established American brands.” Greg Wong, Senior Commercial Officer, U.S. Commercial Service, Bangkok.
United Kingdom – “The United Kingdom is open for business, but until the details of what Brexit is going to look like have been confirmed, there will continue to be uncertainty in the marketplace. There are, however, still many good opportunities for the brave!” Iain Martin, The Franchising Centre, London.
Vietnam – This market continues to have strong retail sales and has benefitted from factories relocating from China. GDP growth of 6.6% is expected in 2019. American brands are highly desired in this market.
Projected 2019 GDP growth rates for this article are from the ‘Economist’ magazine.
William Edwards is CEO of Edwards Global Services (EGS). Contact him at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com or on +1 949 224 3896. With 45 years’ experience as a leader in international operations, business development and franchising, William “Bill” Edwards helps clients worldwide navigate the complex and often turbulent global business landscape. EGS provides a complete International Operations and Development Solution for Franchisors. From the initial global market research and country prioritization, to developing new international markets and providing operational support around the world, EGS offers the complete solution based on:
- Experience as Franchisors, International Licensees, Franchisees and Consultants working with 30+ U.S. franchise brands across 40 countries
- Knowledge across Food & Beverage, Retail and Service sectors and diverse cultures
- An operations and development team in over 40 countries experienced in finding,
- qualifying, signing, starting up, growing and fixing intentional licensees
- Trademarked processes and services based on decades of problem-solving experience
The EGS GlobalVue™ Country Ranking for Selected Countries in 2019
This blog is adapted from an article to appear this month in ‘Franchise Update’ magazine.
The Fastest 2 Minutes in International Franchising
Our GlobalTeam™ of highly experienced international specialists in the USA and on the ground in 32 countries contributed to this summary of today’s world business opportunities. Countries to watch for excellent business development opportunities in 2017: the Philippines, the UAE, Spain and Poland.
| Asia | China Japan Malaysia The Philippines Thailand Viet Nam |
Consumer economy growing at over 8% per year Corporations are seeking consumer investments Political and currency unrest Many new US international businesses opening Starting a comeback from post-coup recession 6%+ GDP growth, USA franchises desired |
| Americas | Argentina Brazil Canada Chile Colombia Mexico Peru USA |
Dramatic change, new government, improving economy Economy, stalled, inflation up, government problems New tax-focused government Government regulations increased Uneven growth, low new investment Post US election new investment stoppage New pro-business government, US brand friendly Renewed business confidence: lower taxes, regulations |
| Europe | Ireland Germany Poland Russia Spain Turkey United Kingdom |
Good GDP growth, slow to see new investment Difficult to find investors for foreign brands Highest EU GDP growth Not now!!! Recovery speeding up, heavy new investment Political unrest and terrorism = no new investment BREXIT & election fallout slowing new investment |
| Middle East | Egypt Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates |
Security and hard currency problems Difficult to get new businesses open once built New US brands entering, strong new investment |
| Elsewhere | Australia India New Zealand South Africa |
Challenge to find investors for foreign brands Challenge to find licensees who follow system Few consumers, but pro foreign brands High unemployment (25%), low new investment |
A Global Franchising Update for Selected Countries
Our company, Edwards Global Services, Inc., is honored to work with some of the very best U.S. franchisors to take them global.
We closely monitor consumer spending in over 50 countries as consumers are the target market for the U.S. franchise brands we represent. Often media reports look at a country’s economy from the macro or 30,000 foot perspective. We look at a country’s economic activity from about 50 feet: what is the consumer doing and are they spending?
Here are a few updates on our clients’ recent and planned international openings, plus, an update on a ‘new’ or ‘reawakened’ market: Argentina.
Argentina – For decades, this European-style country has experienced political and economic challenges. After only a few months in power, Argentina’s new government has already taken significant steps to address the country’s economic problems. Argentine President Mauricio Macri has removed export taxes for agricultural products, slowed the printing of pesos, abolished most currency controls, and taken steps to remove subsidies on electricity, food and natural gas.
He has removed export tariffs on beef, soybeans, wheat, and corn, giving exporters greater leeway to sell their products abroad. Macri also plans to eliminate subsidies on electricity, food, and natural gas, thereby reversing the inefficiencies that have burdened Argentina’s economy in previous years. (“Argentina’s New President Lays the Groundwork for a Better Economy”, Stratfor, January 19, 2016)
Argentina was a strong franchise market in the past, and we are beginning to see interest by U.S. franchisors in re-entering this large, well educated, and sophisticated market in Latin America.
Italy – While Italy is considered a slow growing market in the European Union, with significant economic challenges, there are opportunities for new consumer brands in certain sectors. Burgers are one of those sectors. Just over a year ago, Fuddruckers® burger brand opened its first European location in Milan, Italy. Today there are two locations in Milan and a new location in Warsaw, Poland. Europe loves Fuddruckers’ burgers and wings!
Near Milan, Italy
Japan – This is generally considered a slow growth country that has been slow for several decades. That is not true in the consumer sector, and certainly not in the burger sector, where several U.S. brands have entered recently to challenge McDonald’s 3,000 unit monopoly. Carl’s Jr.® recently announced the opening of its first restaurant in Tokyo. In this photo, Ned Lyerle, President of CKE Restaurants International, is on the right, along with our company’s Japan Associate, Ichiro (Roy) Fujita.
Carl’s Jr.®
Philippines – In December 2015 it was announced that Denny’s® has signed a license agreement with the Bistro Group, who also is the Philippines licensee for TGI Friday’s® and Buffalo Wild Wings®. The first Denny’s® restaurant in the Philippines will open in Manila in mid-2016. The Philippine economy is expected to grow at 6.5% in 2016. U.S. food franchise brands are greatly desired.
Poland – This is the one country in Europe where GDP growth did not turn negative between 2008-2012. This year the country’s economy is expected to grow at 3.1%, the highest in the European Union. This is driven almost entirely by consumer spending.
International Dairy Queen entered Europe last year. This 75-year old brand, with 6,500 stores in 28 countries, now has three stores in Warsaw. Yes, the iconic Blizzard® is present in Poland and selling well, even in the winter!
International Dairy Queen
Turkey – Two years ago, Build-A-Bear Workshop®, the world’s largest children’s entertainment retail brand, opened its first store in Istanbul. Today there are three stores in Istanbul and one in Ankara. Turkish families love to spend money on their kids and Build-A-Bear Workshop® helps!
Build-A-Bear Workshop®
United Arab Emirates – The UAE continues to see annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in excess of 3% per year. Dubai is the center of tourism and financial business in the region. New U.S. food brands are continuing to enter this lucrative market.
In December 2015, Denny’s® opened its first restaurants in the Middle East in Dubai. In this picture are John Miller, the CEO of Denny’s®, and Steve Dunn, The Denny’s® Global Chief Development Officer.
Denny’s®
Vietnam – With a GDP annual growth rate of over 6% and a very fast growing middle class consumer market, Vietnam is one of the top developing markets in Asia. U.S. franchise brands are highly desired. Recently our company finalized the country license for PJ’s Coffee of New Orleans® to open 10 or more high end coffee shops in Vietnam over the next 5-7 years. Vietnamese are very big coffee drinkers and love the social aspects of meeting for coffee and pastries with their friends.
The Fastest 2 Minutes in International Franchising
Our GlobalTeam™ of highly experienced international specialists on the ground in 32 countries contributed to the following brief summary of the franchise world opportunities for 1st quarter 2016. Countries to watch for franchise opportunities in 2016: Argentina, the Philippines, the UAE, Spain, Poland and Peru.
| Asia | China Japan Malaysia The Philippines Thailand Viet Nam |
Consumer economy growing at 8.2% per year Only large corporations are investing in new projects Political unrest, declining Foreign Direct Investment Many new US F&B brands opening 4% GDP growth expected in 2016 6.5% GDP growth, prefer US franchise brands |
| Americas | Argentina Brazil Canada Chile Colombia Mexico Peru USA |
Dramatic change, new positive government Economy is stalled, inflation climbing, political uncertainty Declining investment in F&B, tax focused new government 3.7% GDP growth for 2016. Government regulations? Show me the money and where it came from Mexico City, Monterrey and Cancun booming Lima is a city of cranes and new foreign franchises US$15/hour minimum wage kills margins. Election year |
| Europe | Ireland Germany Poland Russia Spain Turkey United Kingdom |
GDP growth of 3.5% projected for 2016 Difficult to find investors/risk takers for new foreign brands 3%+ GDP growth for 2016. Slow new franchise investment Not now 2.7% GDP growth for 2016. Recovery speeding up Political unrest leading to drop in new project investment 2.2% GDP growth, but normal investment analysis paralysis |
| Middle East | Egypt Saudi Arabia Dubai |
Pent-up consumer demand, high growth, iffy security Challenges to get new businesses open due to regulations New building push, large expat influx, airport & airline soaring |
| Elsewhere | Australia India South Africa |
GDP growth of 2.5% but falling commodity exports. Jobs iffy? Not another country, another universe. But opportunities. Low growth, high unemployment (25%), low new investment |
