Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 13, Tuesday, June 10, 2025
“In the midst of every crisis, lies great opportunity.”, Albert Einstein
Welcome to Issue #136 of the Global Business Update – As we hit the midpoint of 2025, the global economy is sending mixed—and at times, conflicting—signals. In this issue, we cover everything from rising gold prices to sinking tourist numbers, from trade skirmishes to surprising growth pockets.
The global economy sputters as new tariffs return under Trump, intensifying trade tensions now hitting on three fronts. We’re seeing ripple effects: jobs at the Port of Los Angeles are down by half, international tourist arrivals to the U.S. continue to decline, and tariffs are already making dolls more expensive for American families. Yet, in a twist, AmCham reports no polled U.S. firms in China are planning to reshore to the USA.
Meanwhile, China generated more electricity in 2024 than the U.S., EU, and India combined, and Starbucks is cutting prices in China as competition grows. Vietnam emerges as a high-growth market, while Canada pushes for faster project approvals and freer trade. Europe quietly doubles its growth pace, attracting investor attention.
This issue also features a deep dive into life expectancy by country, a timely look at The Art of Uncertainty, and what America’s Pizza Economy says about the real one. But despite the tariff challenges, Freddies® is opening its first restaurant in Canada!
One More Thing… In this issue’s book, The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck, global strategist and philosopher Dennis Shirshikov challenges conventional views on control and prediction in business. This thought-provoking book argues that embracing uncertainty—not avoiding it—is the most powerful way to succeed in today’s complex and volatile global environment.
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But First……The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.
PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896
Link to our current and past newsletters: https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“Uncertainty is the new norm. Leaders must rely on their ‘muscle memory’—past experience and foundational knowledge—to navigate challenges like trade policy shifts, fluctuating markets, AI integration, and evolving workforce dynamics.”, Janet Truncale – Global Chair & CEO, Ernst & Young (EY)
“Never to let one’s self be beaten down by persons or by events.”, Marie Curie
“Commitment is what transforms a promise into reality.”, Abraham Lincoln
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Highlights in issue #136:
How Long People Live, by Country
Global Economy Sputters as Trump Inks New Tariff
Plunge in Overseas Demand Hits China Manufacturing, Caixin PMI Shows
Jobs at the Port of Los Angeles are down by half, executive director says
Fewer international tourists are visiting the U.S.
What America’s Pizza Economy Is Telling Us About the Real One
Euro Economies Doubling Growth Grabs Investor Attention –
Brand Global News Section: Dave’s Hot Chicken®, Freddies®, Little Cesars® and Starbucks®
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, April 2025 – Markets fluctuate but return to early April levels; first-quarter US GDP data indicates consumer spending and investment growth despite 0.3% contraction, while China and Europe outpace expectations. Persistent high consumer prices and elevated levels of uncertainty continue to affect households, leading to low levels of overall consumer confidence in the US and beyond. Despite the uncertainty, leading indicators were above long-term trends across the main economies during March. Economies are continuing to reduce interest rates, except Russia and Brazil, which have been raising rates to combat high inflation.”, McKinsey & Co., May 29, 2025
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“Global Economy Sputters as Trump Inks New Tariff – Despite promised blowback from Europe, Donald Trump formally raised steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% from 25% on Tuesday. The move by the president raises trade tensions at a time when the US is locked in negotiations with numerous trading partners over his so-called “reciprocal” duties before a July 9 deadline. While those tariffs have been deemed by US courts to likely be illegal, they remain in place as litigation over them proceeds. The steel levies aren’t implicated by the rulings.”, Bloomberg, June 3, 2025
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“A New Era for the Global Economy – Established economic and trade rules are being eroded, without a clear replacement emerging. Over the past two decades, the global economy has endured significant shocks – most notably the 2008 financial crisis and the economic fallout from pandemic-related lockdowns. These events severely hindered real GDP growth. Despite these disruptions, the primary indicator of economic activity has remained resilient. Growth rebounded quickly after the pandemic, surpassing 3 percent for many countries. Still, the IMF expresses caution. It does not expect strong economic growth to continue into the coming year, although it does forecast positive growth overall. Ongoing instability – especially in trade relationships and global conflicts – poses serious risks. These factors threaten supply chains and the flow of goods, shifting economic risks to the downside. For example, new tariffs imposed by the United States, along with retaliatory measures by its trading partners, prompted the IMF to lower its global growth forecast in the January 2025 World Economic Outlook update to 2.8 percent for the year.”, Geopolitical Futures, May 28, 2025
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“How Long People Live, by Country – How long you live depends a lot on where you’re born. For example, Western European countries have an 80+ life expectancy at birth. However, several African countries have a below 60 life expectancy, a lifespan that is a full 20 years shorter. Parts of already Africa battle a perfect storm of difficult living conditions: poor nutrition, not enough clean water, and violence. However, the biggest difference between life expectancies of Africans and residents of high-income regions are for those before the age of 5 and after 60.”, Visual Capitalist and UN World Population Prospects 2024, May 22, 2025
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“China Generated More Electricity in 2024 Than the U.S., EU, & India Combined – China generated over 10,000 TWh (terawatt-hour) of electricity in 2024. That’s more than the combined output of the U.S., EU, and India—the next three biggest producers.”, Our World In Data, June 1, 2025
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“Why central banks are playing a big role in pushing up gold prices – Governments are buying up gold as they see it as a safe investment – and, in some cases, a tool for evading Western sanctions. Gold prices have surged this year as investors seek safe investments amid a spike in economic uncertainty unleashed by US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Countries are increasingly experimenting with creating gold-backed digital assets and trading systems that bypass the dollar-denominated financial system, according to an article by Kimberly Donovan and Maia Nikoladze of the Atlantic Council’s Economic Statecraft Initiative published earlier this month.”, South China Morning Post, May 27, 2025
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Global & Regional Travel News
“Travel advisor survey shows bookings decline, but not across the board – A majority of travel advisors say that bookings are down this year compared to last, with the economy, consumer confidence and price sensitivity all playing roles. A Travel Weekly survey fielded last month found that 27.8% of respondents reported a significant decrease in bookings so far in 2025, while 29.9% reported a slight decrease. That adds up to 57.7% who are reporting some kind of decrease. Ten percent reported no change in bookings, 18.5% reported a slight increase, and 12.8% reported a significant increase.”, Travel Weekly, June 2, 2025
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“Fewer international tourists are visiting the U.S. — economic losses could be ‘staggering,’ researchers estimate. Spending among international visitors to the U.S. is poised to fall $8.5 billion this year, according to Oxford Economics. Tourists are avoiding the U.S. as a destination amid tensions tied to Trump administration policy related to trade and the border, experts said. A relatively strong dollar and weak global growth prospects are also playing a role, they said. Spending from foreign visitors to the U.S. is poised to fall by $8.5 billion this year as negative perceptions tied to trade and immigration policy lead overseas tourists to look elsewhere, according to a research note published by Oxford Economics. The spending decline, which works out to a drop of about 5% relative to last year, is a result of less foot traffic. International arrivals to the U.S. are expected to fall about 9% this year, Aran Ryan, director of industry studies at Tourism Economics, part of Oxford Economics, wrote in a research note last week.”, CNBC, May 28, 2025
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Book Review
In The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck, global strategist and philosopher Dennis Shirshikov challenges conventional views on control and prediction in business. This thought-provoking book argues that embracing uncertainty—not avoiding it—is the most powerful way to succeed in today’s complex and volatile global environment. For professionals in international business, Shirshikov’s insights are particularly resonant.
Through compelling case studies and psychological insights, the book explores how successful decision-makers don’t eliminate risk; instead, they learn to work with randomness, incomplete information, and ambiguity. This mindset is essential in international markets, where variables such as cultural nuance, regulatory shifts, economic volatility, and geopolitical tension can disrupt even the most well-planned strategies.
Shirshikov emphasizes agility, scenario thinking, and the use of probabilistic models to guide choices—not for perfect forecasts, but to build resilience and adaptability. His discussion of “productive ignorance” is especially valuable for global business leaders, reminding us that humility and curiosity often yield better long-term outcomes than false confidence.
Ultimately, The Art of Uncertainty offers a compelling toolkit for thriving amid global ambiguity. For entrepreneurs, executives, and strategists operating across borders, this book is not only timely—it’s indispensable.
5 Key Takeaways for International Businesspeople
1. Embrace Uncertainty as a Strategic Asset: Use uncertainty to identify opportunities and drive innovation in unpredictable markets.
2. Make Decisions with Incomplete Information: Take action using probabilities and patterns, essential for navigating new territories.
3. Leverage “Productive Ignorance”: Recognize gaps in knowledge to ask better questions and build stronger local partnerships.
4. Design Flexible, Resilient Strategies: Use scenario planning and optionality to adapt to shifting global conditions.
5. Differentiate Luck from Skill: Understand the role of timing and luck to remain humble and prepared for change.
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Country & Regional Updates
Africa
“Africa’s gen AI potential – Africa has embraced gen AI with remarkable speed, and its institutions are quickly catching up with and in some instances leading global developments. However, the continent’s progress so far with both gen AI and AI more broadly is only the tip of the iceberg, say Partner Mayowa Kuyoro and coauthors. Gen AI adoption varies widely by sector, with digitally mature sectors such as technology, telecommunications, and financial services leading the way. The authors estimate that at-scale deployment of gen AI could lead to $61 billion to $103 billion of additional economic value across Africa.”, McKinsey & Co., May 29, 2025
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Canada
“Geography has made us neighbors. History has made us friends. Economics has made us partners. And necessity has made us allies”., President Kennedy, Ottawa in 1961.
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“Canada Introduces Bill to Speed Up Project Approval, Dismantle Trade Barriers – Officials say removing internal trade barriers and expediting approval of major infrastructure and resource projects would help maximize Canada’s economic potential. Canada introduced legislation on Friday that aims to accelerate approval of resource and infrastructure projects, and knock down internal trade barriers that analysts estimate cost the domestic economy tens of billions of dollars in growth. As for internal trade barriers, this marks the federal government’s boldest effort yet to get the country’s 10 provinces and three territories to mutually recognize their rules and regulations. For instance, provinces have different rules regarding how long truckers can work, and minimum energy efficiency requirements in appliances like washing machines. Wine made in one province can’t be directly sold to customers in another. Further, labor mobility is hampered as provinces have differing rules on who is qualified to work in the trades.”, The Wall Street Journal, June 6, 2025
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China
“Plunge in Overseas Demand Hits China Manufacturing, Caixin PMI Shows – China’s manufacturing shrank in May at the fastest pace since September 2022, with overseas demand falling at a quicker pace, a Caixin-sponsored survey showed Tuesday. The Caixin China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which gives an independent snapshot of the country’s manufacturing sector, came in at 48.3, down from 50.4 in April. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in activity, while a number below that signals a contraction. The Caixin PMI is one of the earliest available monthly indicators of activity in the world’s second-largest economy. Manufacturing accounted for around 26% of China’s GDP in the first quarter, according to government data.”, Caixin Global, June 3, 2025
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“China Tariffs Already Mean Fewer, More Expensive Dolls for American Kids – Toy makers are raising prices and are cautious about producing more amid uncertainty over tariff levels. Trump’s tariffs on China are hurting U.S. toy makers, who face higher costs and reduced assortment. A federal trade court ruling on tariffs was put on hold, adding to uncertainty for businesses. Smaller toy makers struggle to fulfill orders as Chinese factories prioritize larger customers. Trump’s China tariffs have been hurting low-margin industries such as toy makers, where companies say there are few alternatives to raising prices. As a result, these businesses expect American shoppers to face a smaller assortment of goods this Christmas—and at a higher cost.”, Wall Street Journal, June 7, 2025
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“No polled US firms in China shifting production back to US, AmCham survey finds – ‘Instead, they are localising operations or shifting some production to third countries,’ the American Chamber of Commerce says after poll of 112 member companies in China. “Tariffs are an added challenge for our member companies at a time when operating in China is already becoming more complex,” said Alvin Liu, AmCham China chair. Despite the challenges, however, most companies are not planning to exit China, the survey found. None report shifting production back to the US.”, South China Morning Post, June 6, 2025. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
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European Union & The Euro Zone
“Trump’s Trade Fight Now a War on Three Fronts – The European Union is preparing for another round of trade talks with the US, but it’s also warning that it may speed up retaliatory measures if President Donald Trump follows through on his latest threat: a 50% levy on steel and aluminum imports. The European Commission, which handles trade matters for the EU, said Monday it “strongly” regrets the tariff hike—up from an originally planned 25%—and said the move is undermining efforts to reach a solution to the trade conflict.”, Bloomberg, June 2, 2025
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“Euro Economies Doubling Growth Grabs Investor Attention – Eurozone economies led by Ireland and Germany expanded twice as much as previously reported to begin the year, with exports surging in anticipation of US tariffs. Eurostat’s upward revision to 0.6% growth caught most economists by surprise and capture a currency union that’s so far proving resilient. For all the Sturm und Drang hurled by the Trump administration, Europe’s macro-economic picture still shows light on the horizon. Private equity investors have a new-found love for Germany and are prowling for deals. Defense technology stocks are booming as investors pour into meeting EU security requirements. The reassessment of European fortunes takes place as jitters spread among investors eyeing what’s taking place on the other side of the Atlantic. The US has ceased to be a secure destination because of risks stemming from Trump’s tax and spending bills, according to the chief economist at French asset manager Carmignac.”, Bloomberg, June 6, 2025
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Middle East
“Etiquette Is Not Fluff: It is Strategy in the Gulf Market – When Western companies think about business expansion into the Gulf, their minds often jump straight to legal structures, market size, product fit, and perhaps even localisation. And yes, they are important. But one area often dangerously overlooked is this: Etiquette! Not as a nice-to-have. Not as an afterthought. Not to be googled as quick fix. But as a strategic imperative.
In the Gulf region — comprising countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman — Etiquette is not just about saying the right thing or offering the correct greeting. It’s about showing respect, building trust, and signalling that you understand the invisible rules of the game. If you don’t understand these rules, you are not just being seen as impolite. You are being seen as untrustworthy, incompetent, or simply not ready for serious business.”, Star Kat – Middle East Sunday Pages, May 25, 2025. Compliments of Corina Goetz
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United States
“Jobs at the Port of Los Angeles are down by half, executive director says – Job opportunities at the Port of Los Angeles are dwindling as President Trump’s steep tariffs take a hit on global trade and a major economic engine for the regional economy. Nearly half of the longshoremen who support operations at the port went without work over the last two weeks, Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, said in an interview. The port processed 25% less cargo than forecast for the month of May, he said.”, The Los Angeles Times, June 7, 2025
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“How big trade deficit drop as tariffs hit imports is playing out inside U.S. supply chain and economy – The U.S. trade deficit has plunged as imports surged and then plummeted as a result of President Trump’s trade war and tariffs. The impact of rapid global economic shifts can be seen in the supply chain activity across the U.S., from warehouses to freight orders and inventory. The data points to greater pain for small businesses. The U.S. trade deficit fell by the largest amount on record in April as imports fell by over 16% after a surge in orders to beat President Trump’s tariffs, but there’s a worrying flip side for the consumer. As the trade war whipsaws global economic activity, supply chain data shows that the retail inventory crunch could be next and small business across the country are bearing the brunt of the pain. From freight orders to inventory and warehousing, the latest logistics data shows the inability of many importers to make business decisions related to inventory levels.”, CNBC, June 5, 2025
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Vietnam
“Vietnam: a high-growth market going cheap – It has been 50 years since Vietnam was reunited after a 25-year war that devastated the country………..in the late 1980s, the government performed a sharp U-turn and turned Vietnam into a very capitalist country under autocratic rule. Since then, GDP per capita has risen from $270 a year to $4,300 in an economy that has grown from $6.3 billion to $430 billion, notes Tod Davis of brokers Deutsche Numis. Wider signs of social progress are equally impressive: the population has increased from 44 million to 100 million, male life expectancy at birth has risen from 61 to 75, literacy has risen from 57% to 96%, and the poverty rate has fallen from 78% to around 3%. With the economy growing at 6% per annum, ‘Vietnam is likely to become a high income nation similar to Taiwan and South Korea, with a GDP per capita of $12,500 within 20 years’, says Brook Taylor, chief executive of VinaCapital. The threat of tariffs is the current worry (America’s trade deficit with Vietnam is its third-largest), but this may be exaggerated. VinaCapital expects the US to settle for a 20% tariff in the end, probably with a high-tech exemption. This would reduce GDP growth from 7% to about 6% for 2025.”, Money Week, June 6, 2025
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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification
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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News
“Starbucks to cut prices in China – Consumer businesses under pressure from weaker economic backdrop and intense competition. Starbucks will cut the prices of several iced and tea-based drinks in China, as the coffee chain grapples with heated competition in its second-biggest market. The Seattle-based company said in a social media post on Monday it would reduce the prices of products, including tea lattes and frappucinos, by an average of Rmb5, taking the price of certain drinks to Rmb23 ($3.20). Businesses in Chinese consumer sectors from cars to food and beverage have been under pressure to lower prices amid a weaker economic backdrop and intense competition.”, The Financial Times, June 9, 2025
Editor’s Note: The Shanghai price is the same as it is in Southern California!!
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Roark Capital Investment Adds Sizzle to Dave’s Hot Chicken’s Explosive Growth Plans –With the private equity firm now a majority owner, the fast casual plans to become a worldwide sensation, with 155-165 stores opening this year. Dave’s Hot Chicken president Jim Bitticks remembers visiting restaurants five years ago and asking cofounder Dave Kopushyan what he thinks the brand will be someday. His answer? ‘We won’t sell until it’s a billion.’ Dave’s, founded in 2017 by childhood friends Kopushyan, Arman Oganesyan, and Tommy Rubenyan, started with $900 and a parking lot pop-up in East Hollywood. The brand became an instant sensation, and a couple of years later, it brought on Phelps—the former CEO of Wetzel’s Pretzels and Blaze Pizza—to begin franchising.
Since then, Dave’s has grown swiftly. After opening roughly 80 stores each in 2023 and 2024, the plan is to open 155 to 165 locations this year and around the same in 2026. The fast casual is working through a pipeline of over 1,000 franchise locations across the U.S., the Middle East, and Canada.”, QSR Magazine, June 2, 2025
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“What America’s Pizza Economy Is Telling Us About the Real One – Higher-end pies are still selling, but for lower-income consumers even frozen pizza is becoming a luxury. For the longest time, pizza has been the go-to dinner order for anyone looking to feed a family fast and on the cheap. What’s often touted as America’s favorite food took on another attribute during the pandemic: safe. Domino’s Pizza Inc., the largest of the delivery chains, and its smaller rival Papa John’s International Inc. each registered double-digit year-over-year same-store sales increases in the US and North America, respectively, in 2020, helped by Covid-19 lockdowns. Four years on, though, it looks as if low-income consumers are being priced out of pizza. Those same-store sales were down at all three pizza chains in the first quarter of 2025, declining 5% at Pizza Hut, 2.7% at Papa John’s and 0.5% at Domino’s. Domino’s did have one metric to celebrate, at least: Takeout ticked up 1%, because, as Chief Financial Officer Sandeep Reddy explained in an earnings call, it costs less than delivery.”, Bloomberg, June 6, 2025
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“Little Caesars makes India debut with NCR outlet plan – Harnessing Harvest to lead franchise push. Little Caesars, the world’s third-largest pizza chain by global presence, is set to enter India this month by opening its first outlet in the Delhi-NCR region, the company said on Friday. This will be the brand’s 30th global market. The Detroit-based brand, known for its ‘hot-n-ready’ pizzas and Crazy Bread, has partnered with Harnessing Harvest as its India franchisee. ‘Launching in India marks an exciting milestone for Little Caesars as we expand into our 30th country,’ said Paula Vissing, President, Global Retail at Little Caesars Pizza, in a statement. The company’s foray into India is part of a wider global expansion that recently included markets like Cambodia and Kuwait, PTI reported.”, The Times Of India, June 7, 2025
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“Freddy’s to open first Canadian restaurant – The Winnipeg unit is the first outside the U.S. for the growing burger chain, which is building out a significant store pipeline. The fast-growing burger brand is developing its Canadian footprint through a master franchise agreement with North 49 Frozen Custard and Steakburgers, and the first unit has been in the works for some time. Freddy’s has grown rapidly since its 2021 acquisition by Thompson Street Capital, according to its franchise disclosure document. In 2022, the brand said it was targeting a total unit count of about 1,000.”, Restaurant Dive, June 2, 2025
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To receive our biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
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William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ companies global.
| To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ |
Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking
For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 135, Tuesday, May 27, 2025
“Making predictions is hard to do, especially about the future.”,
Commentary about the 135th Issue: The global business landscape is more unpredictable than ever—tariffs come and go, regional conflicts disrupt supply chains, populist regimes change the rules overnight, and doing business in China gets trickier by the day. It’s tough to know what’s coming next. But here’s the thing—we don’t have to be perfect forecasters. What matters more is how quickly we can adapt. Flexibility, diversification, and staying informed give us a fighting chance in a world full of surprises. The goal isn’t to guess right every time, but to be ready to pivot when the ground shifts. Yogi had a funny way of saying it, but he was right—these days, smart business means being ready for anything.
One More Thing… Join us on May 28th at the Beall Center for Innovation and Entrepreneurship on the campus of the University of California, Irvine for an evening filled with very timely world-class keynote speakers, engaging panel discussions, and unparalleled business-to-business networking opportunities related to global trade, trade policy and even tariffs at the 11th Annual Orange County World Trade Week Forum Event.
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But First……The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.
PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896
Link to our current and past newsletters: https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.”, Sun Tzu
“No nation was ever ruined by trade.”, Benjamin Franklin
“Trade creates bridges where politics builds walls.”, Anonymous
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Highlights in issue #135:
Visualizing the World’s Shadow Economies
The World’s Largest Economies, Including U.S. States
What AI Means for the Future of Accounting Jobs
What It’s Like to Travel in China Right Now—And How to Do It
Will consumers pay more for EVs?
Supremacy: AI, ChatGPT, and the Race That Will Change the World.
Brand Global News Section: McDonalds® and Slim Chickens®
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MAY 28TH SPECIAL EVENT ANNOUNCEMENT
Join us tomorrow, May 28th at the Beall Center for Innovation and Entrepreneurship on the campus of the University of California, Irvine for an evening filled with very timely world-class keynote speakers, engaging panel discussions, and unparalleled business-to-business networking opportunities at 11th Annual Orange County World Trade Week Forum Event. This is your chance to connect with key trade organizations, international business groups, the diplomatic corps, academics and to earn about the extensive global resources available in Southern California.
Presented by the District Export Council of Southern California and supported by key partners such as the Greater Irvine Chamber of Commerce, The Ports Of Los Angeles and Long Beach and the U.S. Commercial Service, this gathering is essential for those in Southern California ready to embrace the future of international trade.
There is still time to register for this Wednesday, May 28th event at this link: bit.ly/OCWTC2025
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“The World’s Largest Economies, Including U.S. States – California passed Japan to become the fourth-largest economy in 2024, new data from the BEA reveals. Nine U.S. states feature in the world’s 30 largest economies as measured by their 2024 GDP. It’s in the name really. The United States of America began as a union of separate entities coming together. And while the U.S. is seen as a single global economic and political hegemon today, many of its 50 states are major economies on their own. To show just how big they are, we’ve mapped and ranked 30 of the world’s largest economies, including U.S. states, to see how they stack up against entire countries.”, Bureau of Economic Analysis(BEA) and International Monetary Fund (IMF), May 16, 2025
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“Visualizing the World’s Shadow Economies – Globally, the shadow economy is estimated to equal 11.3% of GDP based on analysis of 131 countries from Ernst and Young. In the U.S., the shadow economy is estimated to be valued at $1.4 trillion, or 5% of GDP. Meanwhile, the underground economy is valued at more than half of GDP in Sierra Leone, Niger, and Nepal. Shadow economies are highly prevalent. The shadow economy, which includes unreported and untaxed business activities, drug trafficking, and other illegal activities generates trillions annually in revenue. On average, the shadow economy is equal to 42.4% of GDP in low-income countries, with the highest concentration in Africa.”, EY Global Shadow Economy Report 2025 and the IMF, May 14, 2025
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““Will consumers pay more for EVs? Despite the ongoing increase in market share for electric vehicles (EVs), sales growth has slowed in many regions after years of rapid expansion. Consumer behavior is one important piece of the EV adoption puzzle, say Senior Partner Philipp Kampshoff and coauthors. Our annual mobility survey revealed that the price difference between comparable internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and battery electric vehicles (BEV) factors into purchasing decisions. In Europe and the United States, only about a third of respondents say they would accept a BEV premium.”, McKinsey & Co., May 22, 2025
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“AI Needs More Abundant Power Supplies to Keep Driving Economic Growth – Artificial intelligence is an emerging source of productivity and economic growth that’s also reshaping employment and investment. AI has the potentialto raise the average pace of annual global economic growth according to scenarios in our recent analysis, included in the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook. AI, however, needs more and more electricity for the data centers that make it possible. The resulting strain on power grids has major implications for global electricity demand. The world’s data centers consumed as much as 500 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2023, according to the most recent full-year estimate by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. That total, which was more than double the annual levels from 2015-19, could triple to 1,500 terawatt-hours by 2030, OPEC projects. As this Chart of the Week shows, electricity used by data centers alone, already as much as that of Germany or France, would by 2030 be comparable to that of India, third world’s largest electricity user. This would also leapfrog over the projected consumption by electric vehicles, using 1.5 times as much power than EVs by the decade’s end.”, Visual Capitalist & International Energy Agency, May 18, 2025
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“What AI Means for the Future of Accounting Jobs – New AI tools are redefining the future of accounting jobs. Learn how upskilling, adaptability, and human judgment define what comes next. Based on the Intuit QuickBooks poll, 98% of American bookkeepers and accountants used artificial intelligence (AI) in the last year. Consistent with other industry developments, AI usage increased from 37% to 58% among finance leaders between 2023 and 2024. Among those not yet using it, half reported active preparations for implementation. According to Thomson Reuters, support for generative AI increased from 52% to 71%in tax-focused firms. These shifts point to more than technology adoption. As AI becomes part of daily work, accounting roles are evolving. With automation handling routine processes, professionals are moving into more strategic, client-facing responsibilities. Still, communication, decision-making, and creative thinking continue to shape the value accountants bring to their teams and clients.”, Neil Sahota, Substack, May 20, 2025
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“The 90-Day Rush to Get Goods Out of China – American and Chinese firms are racing to clear a backlog of orders during a pause in trade war hostilities. Sky-high tariffs pummeled U.S.-China trade and now the cease-fire is causing a snapback. Firms across the U.S. are racing to rebook canceled orders and find space on containerships to get products out of China and bring them stateside before the 90-day window closes in August. Shipping executives in Asia say one headache for importers is there aren’t enough ships available to move goods to the U.S. right away. Carriers diverted some of the vessels that would usually ship goods to the U.S. West Coast from China to other busy routes when tariffs slammed U.S.-China trade. Some carriers replaced their biggest containerships with smaller vessels, while others canceled some scheduled sailings altogether, shipping executives say.”, The Wall Street Journal, May 25, 2025
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“China Resumes Rare Earth Exports Under Tight Controls as Global Prices Soar – Chinese rare earth magnet producers are gradually resuming overseas shipments under a new export license regime, after Beijing tightened controls on mid-to-heavy rare earth exports in April — sending shockwaves through global supply chains and driving up prices in Europe and the United States. Three leading Chinese rare earth magnet companies confirmed to Caixin that they had recently received export licenses from the Ministry of Commerce, enabling them to resume shipments to customers in Europe and North America. The approvals fall under China’s “one batch, one license” rule, requiring separate permits for each shipment due to varying metal content.”, Caixin Global, May 15, 2025
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“EU Takes Swing at Making a Deal With Trump – The European Union has shared a revised trade proposal with the US as it aims to inject momentum in talks with President Donald Trump’s administration amid lingering skepticism that a transatlantic deal can be reached. The new offer is said to include proposals that take into account US interests, including international labor rights, environmental standards, economic security and gradually reducing tariffs to zero on both sides for non-sensitive agricultural products as well as industrial goods. The 27-nation bloc has put together plans to hit $108 billion of US exports with additional tariffs in response to Trump’s “reciprocal” levies and 25% tariffs on cars and some auto parts. The EU agreed earlier this month to delay for 90 days the implementation of a separate set of retaliatory tariffs against the US over 25% duties Trump imposed on the bloc’s steel and aluminum exports. That move came after Trump lowered his so-called reciprocal rate on most EU exports to 10% from 20% for the same amount of time.”, Bloomberg, May 21, 2025
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“Trump’s assault on the global dollar – The difficulty is that, however unsatisfactory the hegemon might be, the alternatives look worse. Is the dominance of the dollar about to fade away? Donald Trump insists that “if we lost the dollar as the world currency . . . that would be the equivalent of losing a war”. Yet he himself could be the cause of such a loss. Reliance on a foreign currency depends on trust in its own soundness and liquidity. Trust in the dollar has been slowly eroding for a while. Now, under Trump, the US has become erratic, indifferent and even hostile: why would one trust a country that has launched a trade war on allies? The dollar has been the world’s leading currency for a century. Yet the dollar itself replaced the pound sterling after the first world war, as the UK’s power and wealth declined. Given the rise of China’s economy during that period, this is remarkable. The US also remains at the frontier of world technological development and the foremost military power. Its financial markets are still much the deepest and most liquid. Moreover, in the fourth quarter of last year, 58 per cent of global reserves were in dollars, down from 71 per cent in the first quarter of 1999, but far ahead of the euro’s 20 per cent.”, The Financial Times, May 20, 2025
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Global & Regional Travel News
“What It’s Like to Travel in China Right Now—And How to Do It – Less stringent visa policies and a flurry of new hotels are strong incentives for U.S. travelers to visit the country. Here’s what to know. For years, the country has been an enigma and a challenge for travelers. It’s a vast, deeply historic nation where ancient traditions fuse with hyperfast modernization and where language barriers, digital restrictions, and visa policies often deter casual tourists. But times are changing, and despite its complex global reputation, China has once again opened its doors with newly relaxed entry requirements and a slew of new hotels. In the past two years, China has made drastic changes to its visa policies, and visiting as a tourist has become easier than ever before. A recently extended visa waiver program allows nationals from 38 countries, including Ireland, Australia, Germany, and Japan, to enter China without a visa for up to 30 days. American citizens face fewer hurdles too. Last December, China extended its visa-free transit policy and now allows visitors with a U.S. passport (or passports from one of the other 53 eligible countries) to stay in China for up to 10 days.”, AFAR, May 22, 2025
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“Crypto travelers bring 3x greater lifetime value than fiat users – Crypto travelers tend to have higher spending per transaction, greater loyalty and more frequent bookings. Travelers using cryptocurrency for booking arrangements spend more than twice as much as regular travelers using fiat money, according to a joint report from Binance Pay and crypto travel platform Travala shared with Cointelegraph. Crypto-based bookings on Travala reached $80 million in 2024, up from $45 million the year before. Crypto travelers are also outspending their fiat counterparts, with an average booking value of $1,211 per transaction, over 2.5 times more than fiat users who spend $469. Additionally, the report said crypto users were three times more valuable over their lifetime due to longer stays and higher repeat bookings, with crypto travelers 57% more likely to make a repeat hotel purchase.”, Cointelegraph, May 22, 2025
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Book Review
Supremacy: AI, ChatGPT, and the Race That Will Change the World. Parmy Olson’s Supremacy offers a compelling narrative on the intense competition between OpenAI and DeepMind, two leading entities in the artificial intelligence (AI) arena. The book delves into the personal and professional journeys of Sam Altman and Demis Hassabis, highlighting their ambitions to develop artificial general intelligence (AGI) and the ethical dilemmas they encounter. Olson sheds light on how initial altruistic goals often clash with commercial pressures, leading to compromises that shape the trajectory of AI development.
For global business leaders, Supremacy serves as a critical examination of how technological innovation intersects with corporate strategy, ethics, and governance. It underscores the importance of understanding the broader implications of AI advancements on society and the global economy.
Key Takeaways for Global Businesspeople:
1. AI’s Dual Impact: AI holds the potential for both groundbreaking advancements and significant societal disruptions.
2. Ethical Considerations: The pursuit of AI supremacy often involves ethical compromises, necessitating vigilant oversight.
3. Corporate Influence: Large tech corporations play a pivotal role in steering AI development, raising concerns about monopolistic practices.
4. Global Regulation: There’s an urgent need for international regulatory frameworks to ensure responsible AI deployment.
5. Strategic Adaptation: Businesses must adapt to the evolving AI landscape, balancing innovation with ethical responsibility.
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Country & Regional Updates
China
“A Shrinking China Scrambles for a New Economic Model – A declining, aging population is a poor foundation for consumption-driven growth. China is shifting from an export- and investment-driven economy to one based on domestic consumption. The reason is persistent economic stagnation and a growing risk that the country will fall short of its growth targets. In the past, China could rely on its large and steadily growing population as a foundation for economic advancement, but now its population is aging and shrinking rapidly. A full transition to a consumption-based model appears out of reach for now, partly due to the demographic decline.”, Geopolitical Futures, May 14, 2025
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South Korea
“Navigating Norms and Expectations in the Korean Workplace – Navigating Korean workplace norms can be challenging for executives and teams around the world, as expectations often differ across cultures, writes Don Southerton. Steering Korean workplace norms and expectations can be challenging for the executives and teams worldwide, as workplace norms differ. Long-time global teams have observed Korean groups significantly adopt Western business norms, reducing the dispatch of expats, although a few divisions still adhere to the old model. What stands out is the shift from embedding expat operational teams with divisions acquired through M&A to forming partnerships.”, Branding In Asia, May 22, 2025
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United Kingdom
“An eccentric set of one-offs has knocked inflation up in Britain – Troublingly, the public no longer thinks inflation will keep falling. Annual headline inflation rose from 2.6% in March to 3.5%, blowing past forecasters’ expectations of a 3.3% rise. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose to 3.8%. Water and energy bills, as well as vehicle-excise duty, a car tax, explain nearly all of the increase.”, The Economist, May 22, 2025
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“Why developers are snapping up billions of pounds worth of unwanted offices – Over £3.4 billion worth of UK office space has been purchased for conversion in three years. But what’s driving this unexpected surge in repurposing? These offices, which are usually older and require expensive renovations, have been converted into everything from hotels and flats to laboratories and student halls. Developers’ plans vary by location, depending on what types of property are most in-need in the local area. In most cities — including Bristol, Glasgow and Leeds — residential is the dominant alternative use type, but in Cambridge, Oxford and London, where there is an acute shortage of life sciences space, there is the greatest proportion of offices being converted into laboratories.”, The Times of London, May 25, 2025
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United States
“The 15 U.S. Fast Food Chain Restaurants That Make The Most Money Annually – Fast food chains feed America cheap snacks and beverages that go down easily. It’s woven into the cultural food landscape, encompassing a massive ecosystem of franchises and loyal customers. Here, we dug through the data to compile our list of the 15 top-selling chains in the country per their 2024 revenue. According to Stock Analysis, revenue is “the amount of money a company receives from its business activities, such as sales of products or services….[revenue] does not take any expenses into account and is therefore different from profits.” The information we leveraged is publicly available — typically intended for shareholders — where we parsed the data for specifics on U.S. divisions of these companies since many are often globally scaled.”, Chowhound, May 24, 2025
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“Gen Z is actually the most enthusiastic generation about working in the office and are there 3 days a week – Gen Z is leading the charge in return-to-office, with an average in-person commitment of three days a week, according to recent survey findings from property group JLL. The company surveyed more than 12,000 workers around the world and found Gen Z is the generation that sees the most value in in-person work. Gen Z workers get a bad rap for being lazy and not wanting to go to the office, while in fact, many of them do want to see their coworkers in person. Contrary to popular belief, Gen Z—people who were born between 1997 and 2012—is actually leading the charge in return-to-office, according to a late March report by property group JLL shared with Fortune. JLL found workers under 24 years old are more likely to be in office than other generations and come in an average of 3 days a week.”, Fortune, May 3, 2025
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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification
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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News
“McDonald’s plans to hire 375,000 U.S. workers this summer – McDonald’s said Monday it plans to hire up to 375,000 U.S. restaurant employees this summer, its biggest hiring push in years. The Chicago burger giant said the beefed-up job openings at both company-owned and franchised stores are partly due to a U.S. expansion. The company, which has more than 13,500 restaurants in the U.S., plans to open 900 more by 2027. Its decision to staff up for this summer signals optimism that U.S. restaurant traffic will improve as the year unfolds.”, AP News, May 12, 2025
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“A Fast-Growing Chicken Chain Uses AI in Quest to Become a Household Name – Slim Chickens’ new chief marketing officer wants to play up its made-to-order Southern food with technology—and a music studio. If you haven’t heard of Slim Chickens, it is Patrick Noone’s job to make sure that changes. Noone this year became chief marketing officer at the Fayetteville, Ark.-based chain, which has opened about 300 restaurants, up from around 100 in 2020, with 1,000 more in development globally. Slim Chickens, which opened its first location in 2003, sells buttermilk-brined, hand-breaded chicken tenderloin sandwiches and other Southern fare. Noone previously led a brand transformation at Checkers & Rally’s and held marketing roles at Noodles& Company, Krispy Kreme and Domino’s Pizza.”, Wall Street Journal, May 14, 2025
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“So You Want to Take Your Restaurant(s) Oversees – A Six Part Series – Expanding your restaurant internationally is more than a growth strategy—it’s a major leap that tests every part of your business, from operations and supply chains to culture, finance, and of course, law. It’s easy to get swept up in the excitement of new markets and emerging culinary scenes, but international expansion is not just about translating your brand into a new language or replicating your menu abroad. It’s about understanding and complying with a new legal ecosystem, managing risk, structuring your business intelligently, and ensuring your intellectual property survives the journey intact.”, Lexology, May 19, 2025
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“Survey: 1 in 5 Small Businesses May Not Survive 2025 – A new report from Alignable in collaboration with Harvard Business School and MIT researchers reveals a dramatic surge in small business anxiety as the U.S. trade war continues. ‘Business owners are incredibly resourceful, but tariffs are creating more intense cost pressures and deeper uncertainty with each passing month,’ said Eric Groves, Alignable’s co-founder and CEO. ‘With half of small business owners now expecting sales to decline, it’s a clear signal that we need to act together. One of the most effective ways to push through this turbulence is by leaning on your community and tapping into your most trusted relationships.’ Drawn from 2,392 survey responses collected from April 9 to 24 and 13,000-plus earlier responses this year, the report highlights growing distress even among businesses without direct trade exposure.”, Franchising.com, May 14, 2025
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“Franchise Supply Chains Under Pressure: How to Stay Ahead of Tariff Fallout – Currently, the business world is abuzz with discussions about the tariffs recently imposed by the Trump administration. Targeting not only hostile countries but also some of the United States’ closest neighbors and trade allies, these tariffs are having a significant impact on businesses and franchises across the nation, both economically and operationally. Unfortunately, virtually no business is immune to the effects of these tariffs, including franchises. In the US, several restaurant chains have already raised their prices, passing on the costs of the tariffs to their customers. Although franchises might be tempted to hold out in the hopes that the situation will improve, the outlook is not encouraging that the tariff situation will be resolved anytime soon. One of the most obvious ways franchises will feel the impact of tariffs is in sourcing their ingredients, as many restaurant franchises obtain ingredients, produce, and meat from other countries.”, Franchising.com, May 20, 2025
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“Starbucks 1 Billion China Shake Up Major Deal Talks Brewing Behind the Scenes – Starbucks is makingquiet moves behind the scenes and they could reshape its future in China. The company has reached out to private equity firms, tech giants, and other strategic players to test interest in its China business, according to people familiar with the talks. While nothing’s locked in, insiders say a partial stake sale is on the table, potentially valuing the business in the billions. Conversations are still early, but investors are expected to send in feedback soon. The company hasn’t committed to any deal just yet but when a global brand starts taking meetings like this, you know the playbook is shifting. This comes as Starbucks faces intense pressure in what used to be one of its brightest growth stories. China is still its second-largest market, but local champions like Luckin Coffee and Cotti Coffee are moving fast and grabbing wallets. Luckin raked in $1.2 billion in revenue last quarter, outpacing Starbucks’ $740 million haul in the same region. With more than 7,750 stores across China and a 25% stock drop since February, Starbucks is under the gun to prove it still has room to run and that may require fresh capital, new partners, or both.”, Yahoo Finance, May 15, 2025. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
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To receive our biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
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William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ companies global.
| To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ |
Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking
For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 134, Tuesday, May 13, 2025
“When the winds of change blow, some build walls, others build windmills.”
Chinese Exporters Elated by Reprieve in US-China Trade War
The World’s 50 Most Valuable Companies in 2025
These 18 Industries Could Reshape the Global Economy by 2040
Boeing 737: American Made but Globally Sourced
Chinese Exports to US Slump 21% But Soar to Asia and Europe
Indonesia to Cut Fuel Imports From Singapore in Favor of US
Disney Announces Its First Middle East Theme Park in Abu Dhabi
Commentary about the 134th Issue: Perhaps it is the fact that I lived in China in the 1980s and have taken several U.S. brands into the country over the years but I always like Chinese proverbs as they are often based on thousands of years of history and not just what is happening to us today. There’s an old Chinese proverb that applies to where we find ourselves today: “When the winds of change blow, some build walls, others build windmills.” It’s a simple idea, but incredibly relevant in today’s global business landscape. Change is always coming—whether it’s new technology, shifting consumer behavior, or economic and political uncertainty. Some people try to block it out, stick with what’s familiar, and hope things settle down. That’s building a wall. But the smart ones, the successful leaders I’ve seen around the world, they do the opposite. They lean in. They find ways to use those winds to generate momentum. That’s building a windmill. They adapt, innovate, and look for new opportunities in the disruption. It’s not about avoiding risk—it’s about being strategic with it. In international business, especially, the ability to harness change instead of resisting it can make all the difference.
One More Thing…On Monday morning, May 12, 2025, the U.S. White House released a statement that the U.S. and China had reached agreement on new trade policies for at least the next 90 days. Under the agreement, China agreed to reduce its tariff on U.S. goods from 125 % to 10% and the U.S. agreed to slash its levy on China from 145% to 30%. The immediate result is that goods destined for the U.S. market for Christmas will probably make it on time and at a fairly low tariff of 30%.
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But First……The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.
PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896
Link to our current and past newsletters: https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“When the winds of change blow, some build walls, others build windmills.”, Chinese Proverb
“To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often.”, Winston Churchill
“In a time of drastic change, it is the learners who inherit the future.”, Eric Hoffer
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Highlights in issue #134:
Chinese Exporters Elated by Reprieve in US-China Trade War
The World’s 50 Most Valuable Companies in 2025
These 18 Industries Could Reshape the Global Economy by 2040
Boeing 737: American Made but Globally Sourced
Chinese Exports to US Slump 21% But Soar to Asia and Europe
Indonesia to Cut Fuel Imports From Singapore in Favor of US
Disney Announces Its First Middle East Theme Park in Abu Dhabi
Brand Global News Section: Dairy Queen®, Krispy Kreme®, Luckin®, McDonalds®, Starbucks®, TGI Fridays® and Wendy’s®
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SPECIAL EVENT ANNOUNCEMENT
Join us on May 28th at the Beall Center for Innovation and Entrepreneurship on the campus of the University of California, Irvine for an evening filled with very timely world-class keynote speakers, engaging panel discussions, and unparalleled business-to-business networking opportunities at 11th Annual Orange County World Trade Week Forum Event. This is your chance to connect with key trade organizations, international business groups, the diplomatic corps, academics and to earn about the extensive global resources available in Southern California.
Presented by the District Export Council of Southern California and supported by key partners such as the Greater Irvine Chamber of Commerce, The Ports Of Los Angeles and Long Beach and the U.S. Commercial Services, this gathering is essential for those in Southern California ready to embrace the future of international trade. Don’t miss this opportunity to propel your trade ambitions forward! Please register for this Wednesday, May 28th event at this link: bit.ly/OCWTC2025
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“The World’s 50 Most Valuable Companies in 2025 – The world’s most valuable companies hold immense sway over the global economy, shaping everything from technology to consumer trends. As of May 2025, U.S. giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia are worth trillions of dollars, reflecting America’s long-standing leadership in innovation and capital markets. The figures we used to create this graphic were sourced from companiesmarketcap.com, as of May 5, 2025.”, Visual Capitalist, May 9, 2025
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“The cost of compute: A $7 trillion race to scale data centers – Our research shows that by 2030, data centers are projected to require $6.7 trillion worldwide to keep pace with the demand for compute power. Data centers equipped to handle AI processing loads are projected to require $5.2 trillion in capital expenditures, while those powering traditional IT applications are projected to require $1.5 trillion in capital expenditures (see sidebar “What about non-AI workloads?”). Overall, that’s nearly $7 trillion in capital outlays needed by 2030—a staggering number by any measure.”, McKinsey & Co., Aoril 28, 2025
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“These 18 Industries Could Reshape the Global Economy by 2040 – McKinsey identified these industries as having the most potential for future growth, generating up to $48 trillion in revenues by 2040. AI Software & Services is expected to have a CAGR of up to 25% between 2022 and 2040. As the world evolves, new industries are emerging as the key drivers of future economic growth. According to McKinsey Global Institute, there are 18 high-growth arenas—including AI, cybersecurity, biotech, and air mobility—which could generate up to $48 trillion in annual revenue by 2040.”, Visual Capitalist and McKinsey & Co., May 7, 2025
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“Chinese Exporters Elated by Reprieve in US-China Trade War – The US-China deal temporarily lowering tariffs comes as a relief for Chinese exporters in limbo since the onset of a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. The Trump administration’s 145% duties on most Chinese imports will be cut to 30% by May 14, while China’s 125% retaliatory levy on US goods will drop to 10% during a 90-day cooling off period, Beijing and Washington said Monday following negotiations in Geneva.”, Bloomberg, May. 12, 2025
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Global & Regional Travel News
“US Lawmakers Request $400 Million in Transit Aid for World Cup – Next year’s games are expected to be the most highly attended in FIFA’s history, with more than five million fans expected to attend the tournament’s 104 matches in the US, Canada and Mexico. Boston, New York City, Kansas City, Philadelphia and Los Angeles are among the 11 host US cities. The nonprofit advocacy group US Travel Association said that the US would need to make more than $10 billion in transit infrastructure upgrades to be able to shuttle visitors to and from the games. ‘The tournament’s anticipated economic impact of over $17 billion will rely on the successful movement of people across our cities,” wrote Representative Sharice Davids and 55 other lawmakers in a letter penned to the Subcommittee on Transportation, Housing and Urban Development. It will be officially sent to the appropriations committee on May 23. “Adequate funding is critical to ensure that transit systems meet the heightened safety, security, and efficiency demand.’ ‘, Bloomberg, May 5, 2025
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“Business travel was making a post-Covid comeback — until the trade war diverted it – Corporate bookings haven’t collapsed, but U.S. policy swings have upended what was a sunny outlook for the $1 trillion global industry just months ago. Business travel’s four-year crawl out the pandemic was on track to continue this year, but the U.S. trade war has scrambled that outlook. ‘The big word is uncertainty,’ said Suzanne Neufang, CEO of the Global Business Travel Association, which had forecast worldwide spending to surge to $1.64 trillion in 2025, up from an expected $1.48 trillion in 2024. Last year’s estimated total, if preliminary data bears out, would mark the first time the sector surpassed its pre-Covid levels. Now, about 29% of U.S. corporate travel managers and an equal share abroad expect business travel to decline this year due to government actions, according to a recent GBTA survey. The expected pullbacks could dent business trips by as much as 22%, the group found. Industry experts caution that souring expectations so far haven’t translated to a collapse in bookings, despite signs of cooler demand. Business travel ‘hasn’t fallen off a cliff, said Jonathan Kletzel, a travel, transportation and logistics leader at the consulting firm PwC.”, NBC News, May 10, 2025
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Book Review
In Peak Human: What We Can Learn from the Rise and Fall of Golden Ages, historian Johan Norbergdelivers a compelling analysis of seven of history’s most remarkable civilizations—Ancient Athens, the Roman Republic, Abbasid Baghdad, Song China, Renaissance Italy, the Dutch Republic, and the modern Anglosphere. Through these case studies, Norberg identifies the patterns that led to their ascents and the missteps that precipitated their declines. The book serves as both a celebration of human progress and a cautionary tale about the fragility of prosperity.
Norberg’s central thesis is that openness—to ideas, trade, and diversity—is the cornerstone of societal flourishing. He argues that societies thrive when they embrace external influences and foster internal innovation. Conversely, periods of decline often follow when societies become insular, resistant to change, or overly reliant on past successes.
For global business leaders, Peak Human offers valuable insights into the dynamics of cultural and economic vitality. Norberg’s analysis underscores the importance of adaptability, inclusivity, and forward-thinking leadership in sustaining growth and competitiveness.
Five Key Takeaways for Global Business Leaders:
1. Openness Drives Innovation: Historical golden ages were characterized by a willingness to adopt and adapt foreign ideas and technologies. Modern businesses should similarly cultivate openness to external insights and diverse perspectives to foster innovation.
2. Inclusivity Enhances Resilience: Societies that encouraged participation across different segments of the population were more adaptable and resilient. Companies that promote inclusive cultures can better navigate challenges and seize opportunities.
3. Learning from Others Accelerates Progress: Just as past civilizations advanced by learning from their neighbors, businesses can benefit from benchmarking against industry leaders and adopting best practices.
4. Complacency Leads to Decline: A recurring theme in the book is that success can breed complacency. Organizations must remain vigilant and proactive to avoid stagnation.
5. Optimism Fuels Growth: A culture that believes in progress and the possibility of improvement is more likely to invest in the future. Leaders should inspire optimism to drive sustained growth.
Peak Human is a thought-provoking read that combines historical analysis with practical lessons for today’s leaders.
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Country & Regional Updates
Canada
“Canadian companies shift focus to Europe for exports, growth – For decades, most Canadian businesses rarely looked beyond the United States for export opportunities and expansion plans. The move southward made sense given the size and proximity of the U.S., and the long history of free trade between both countries. In a matter of months, Mr. Trump has upended those deeply entrenched ties and alienated Canadians by mocking former prime minister Justin Trudeau and calling for the annexation of Canada. As companies assess the fallout of Mr. Trump’s actions, many have begun looking elsewhere for new customers, especially to Europe. There’s also been renewed interest in the trade deal between Canada and the European Union, known as the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, which was signed in 2016. A similar pact that governs trade between Canada and Britain came into force in 2021.”, The Globe and Mail, May 9, 2025
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China
“Chinese Exports to US Slump 21% But Soar to Asia and Europe – Shipments to the US fell 21% from a year earlier after the imposition of duties earlier in April, according to data from the customs administration Friday. China’s tariffing of American goods meant that imports from the US fell almost 14% last month. Shipments to India and the 10 Southeast Asian nations in the Asean group soared by more than 20%, while exports to the European Union were up 8%. Imports fell 0.2% for the second straight monthly decline, leaving a trade surplus of $96 billion.”, Bloomberg. May 8, 2025
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Indonesia
“Indonesia to Cut Fuel Imports From Singapore in Favor of US – Southeast Asia’s largest economy will look to gradually eliminate its shipments of oil products from Singapore, which account for more than half its imports, Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia told reporters on Friday. Purchases will be switched to suppliers in the US and Middle East as Indonesia seeks lower prices and a “better balance” in the changing global geopolitical environment, Lahadalia said. ‘It is not only a matter of price but also geopolitical issues, we need to have a balance with other countries,’ Lahadalia said, adding that imports from Singapore would be reduced to zero ‘some day’.”, Bloomberg, May 9, 2025
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United Arab Emirates
“Disney Announces Its First Middle East Theme Park in Abu Dhabi – The company’s 13th park will be built, owned and operated by the Miral Group, according to the announcement Wednesday. Disneyland Abu Dhabi will be constructed on Yas Island, a major tourism hub in the United Arab Emirates that includes the Miral-built Ferrari World, Warner Bros. World and SeaWorld parks. It will be the company’s first all-new location since the Shanghai Disney Resort opened in 2016. The resort will be Disney’s most technologically advanced, and Miral will fund the entirety of the project…..The new park will give the company a footprint in the largest global airline hub in the world, with more than 120 million passengers traveling annually through Abu Dhabi and Dubai — without any capital commitment. Officials at Disney have been in talks with Miral for about 18 months……”, Bloomberg, May 7, 2025
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United Kingdom
“The U.S.-U.K. Trade Relationship Is Unique. Here’s Why – Cars, oil, aircraft parts and pharmaceuticals are among the goods crossing the Atlantic between the countries. The U.S. and the U.K. have long vaunted their special relationship, and trade is no different. The U.S. runs a trade deficit in goods with nine of its 10 biggest trading partners. The sole exception: the U.K., where the U.S. is ahead. The U.K. is now an exception in another way: It is the first country to have reached a trade deal with the U.S. after President Trump announced on Thursday what he called a “full and comprehensive” pact between the nations. The deal will retain a global 10% tariff on most goods. When it comes to goods, the U.S. counts the U.K. as its ninth-largest trading partner, ranking after Vietnam and before India. The U.S. exported $79.9 billion worth of stuff to the U.K. in 2024 and imported $68.1 billion, according to the Census Bureau—a goods trade surplus of $11.9 billion. In contrast, the U.S. ran goods trade deficits of $16.4 billion with France, $44 billion with Italy and $84.8 billion with Germany.”, The Wall Street Journal, May 8, 2025
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United States
“The US takes a wrecking ball to global trade – Mr. Trump has sent a wrecking ball through the global trade system and imperilled the US and many other economies. Policy
uncertainty stemming from new US tariffs – whether they are retained or rolled back – will upend global supply chains and could have unpredictable, non-linear effects that will pose risks in financial markets. Higher US tariffs form part of the Trump administration’s efforts
to rebalance the US’s economic and security relations. The chaotic manner in which the agenda is being pursued, however, will strain traditional US alliances and drive geopolitical and economic realignment. The risk of policy error will be high in this changing environment. In economic policy, miscalculations are possible as tariff-related price shocks make inflation trends difficult to decipher. In geopolitics, constraints on brinkmanship are weakening as rules related to territorial sovereignty erode, alliance commitments come under question and as trade conflicts – notably between the US and China – feed competition.”, Economist intelligence Unit, May 2025
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“Boeing 737: American Made but Globally Sourced – Boeing collaborates with suppliers across various nations to import thousands of parts for all of its airplanes. While the exact number of contributing countries can vary over time, this diagram charts key foreign suppliers for the 737 model as of April 2025, according to AirFramer.com. Every supplier part on an aircraft must meet strict airworthiness standards and approval from aviation regulators. This means that the requirements placed upon the suppliers are extremely high. Parts and manufacturing abroad must be tested and certified before they’re assembled into the airplane at Boeing’s facilities in the US. Furthermore, many parts are imported for their specific tooling and machining processes currently only available from other countries. As the American aviation industry braces for uncertain times ahead with new tariffs, maintaining strong international partnerships remains essential for ensuring both innovation and resilience in aircraft production.”, AirFramer.com, May 2, 2025
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“GM’s Mary Barra Has to Make a $35 Billion EV Bet Work in Trump’s America – The US automaker is up against tariffs, an oil-loving president and Elon Musk in the White House. After an entire career at the automaker—from inspecting fenders and hoods at the age of 18 to spending the last 11 years as chief executive officer—Barra has staked her legacy on EVs. Her bet has gotten riskier over the past year, first due to a slowdown in EV sales and then the return of Donald Trump and his tariff regime. Those factors encouraged other carmakers to hedge their bets on EVs by shifting more production back to gas cars or to hybrids. Barra has mostly stayed the course. GM depends on a global supply chain, and Trump has been waging a trade war with nearly every single country. The two most affordable EVs in GM’s current lineup, the $35,000 Chevy Equinox and larger Blazer, are manufactured in Mexico, and most of them are brought in over the border to be sold to Americans. GM is on the hook to pay the new tariff on the foreign parts in all cars that come across the northern or southern borders, a 25% tax on other components starting in May and 145% on the materials it ships in by boat from China.”, Bloomberg, April 14, 2025
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Vietnam
“Vietnam Eyes Huge Wind and Solar Farms to End Coal Use by 2050 – The latest amendments to the Power Development Plan VIII, approved by the government earlier this week, call for the nation to more than double its total generating ability by 2030 from 2023 levels, with the aim of increasing capacity nearly 10-fold by 2050. Officials expect power demand to soar as they aim for economic growth of at least 8% this year and double-digits through the end of the decade. The clean energy targets far outstrip what analysts expect the country to be able to achieve. The roadmap calls for as much as 73 gigawatts of solar and 38 gigawatts of wind by 2030 — but BloombergNEF forecasts that the country will have about 32 gigawatts of solar and 12 gigawatts of wind by then. By 2050, Vietnam is targeting as much as 230 gigawatts of wind and 296 gigawatts of solar.”, Bloomberg, April 16, 2025
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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification
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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News
“Starbucks Luckin get buzz from smaller city coffee sales in China – ‘There is still ample room for growth in lower-tier markets,’ analyst says. As coffee chains in China struggle with a bitter combination of sluggish consumption and cutthroat pricing, Starbucks and Luckin Coffee regained momentum in the last quarter by focusing on lower-tier cities. Same-store sales were flat for Starbucks’ China operations in the quarter ended March 30, but a 4 per cent increase in transactions helped to offset a 4 per cent decline in the average tab, the company said last month. This came after the Seattle-based firm suffered an 8 per cent decline in comparable-store sales in the country in the year ended September 29. Luckin, Starbucks’ biggest competitor in China, is also seeing improvements in its performance thanks to expansion. In addition, its new milk-tea drinks helped to capture sales from tea-drink makers like Chagee.”, South China Morning Post, May 11, 2025. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
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“Franchising Across the Tasman: A Smart First Step – Expanding a business internationally can feel like a huge leap, while your closest country neighbor might offer the most logical and achievable next step. This was learned firsthand when we expanded our own consulting business, Tereza Murray Franchising (TMF), across the Tasman from New Zealand to Australia several years ago. What began as a response to client demand quickly became a natural evolution of our brand. For those looking to scale internationally, Australia and New Zealand are uniquely well-matched, and expanding into one from the other is often far simpler than people expect.”, Franchising.com, May 8, 2025. From an article by Tereza Murray is a leading franchise and business consultant and CEO of Tereza Murray Franchising (TMF).
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“Beloved Restaurant Chain Is Shrinking Rapidly After Closing 185 Locations – The chain filed for bankruptcy. TGI Fridays used to be a popular restaurant chain, familiar to people throughout the US. But now the number of restaurants that remain open is shrinking rapidly. According to the chain’s website, there are now only 85 TGI Fridays restaurants left in the entire U.S. The restaurants are located in 19 states. Georgia has the most remaining with seven, according to the website. The company told CNN in April 2025 that TGI Fridays is ‘now led by franchisees, with a franchisee advisory board empowering and shaping brand-wide decisions’. However, according to the company’s website, TGI Fridays has more locations in other countries, 44 in all. There are a total of 461 restaurants in all of those countries, the site says, calling the chain ‘the original casual dining bar and grill.’”, Men’s Journal, May 11, 2025
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“Krispy Kreme Announces Disappointing News on McDonald’s Partnership – The donut chain had major plans with the fast food giant. Krispy Kreme announced last week it was pausing its partnership with McDonald’s. The donut chain began selling its products at McDonald’s in March 2024. Currently, Krispy Kreme products are available under the Golden Arches at more than 2,400 locations nationwide. However, on Thursday, when the company released its first quarter earnings report, it announced it would not be expanding its operations to any additional McDonald’s restaurants in the second quarter of this year. ‘The Company is reassessing the deployment schedule together with McDonald’s while it works to achieve a profitable business model for all parties and does not expect to launch in any additional restaurants in the second quarter of 2025,’ Krispy Kreme said in a press release. When the partnership between the two franchises was unveiled over a year ago, the original stated goal was to have Krispy Kreme sold at every McDonald’s in America by the end of 2026.”, Men’s Journal, May 11, 2025
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“Dairy Queen sets bold target: $10 billion in sales by 2030 – The Bloomington-based company, a Berkshire Hathaway holding, stands apart from its fast food competitors like McDonald’s, KFC and Wendy’s that are seeing declines in traffic because of higher prices and economic uncertainty. Last year, Dairy Queen restaurants around the world brought in $6.4 billion in sales. By 2030, the Bloomington-based company wants franchisees to hit $10 billion. That’s more than 4,500 Blizzards sold per minute around the clock. So to reach that $10 billion goal, Dairy Queen needs to emphasize value while expanding its global reach. There are more than 7,700 franchised DQ locations around the world, including 4,100 in the U.S. At the current rate of new store openings, it won’t be long until more than half of all locations are outside the U.S.”, Minnesota Star Tribune, May 12, 2025
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“Wendy’s To Lean Heavily on International Growth in Latest Plans for Expansion – The fast-food burger chain has a goal of opening 1,000 new restaurants globally by 2028 to increase to a total of 8,100 to 8,300 units worldwide. The expansion is expected to be primarily driven by growth outside of the United States, with foreign markets accounting for 70 percent of the planned additions. Wendy’s plans to add 125 new restaurants in Latin America and is targeting other key international markets in the UK and India.”, Franchsing.com, May 9, 2025.
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
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William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ companies global.
| To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ |
Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking
For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 133, Tuesday, April 29, 2025
Resilience is no longer a buzzword—it’s a board-level mandate
Commentary about the 133th Issue: In global business today, resilience is no longer optional—it’s a required core competency for success in doing global business. Companies navigating international markets in 2025 are facing constant disruption: new U.S. tariffs are reshaping trade dynamics, geopolitical tensions are redrawing supply routes, and AI is transforming how we operate and compete. Amid this turbulence, adaptability has become the key currency of global success. Veteran international executives know that growth across borders has never followed a straight line. It requires a mindset grounded in anticipation, flexibility, and a deep understanding of local realities.
Resilient organizations aren’t just prepared for shocks—they’re built to pivot with purpose. They localize intelligently, form durable partnerships, and continuously invest in forward-looking strategies that make them stronger over time. Resilience now lives at the core of every global playbook. It’s not a reaction—it’s readiness. And the companies that embed it deeply are those best positioned to lead with confidence in this new era we find ourselves in.
One More Thing…On another more interesting subject, this issue has several global AI references. And we learn that in the US, 67% of people who use AI are polite to it, while in the UK 71% are polite……
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But First……The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.
PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896
Link to our current and past newsletters: https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“In an era of volatility, the most resilient businesses aren’t the strongest—they’re the most adaptable.”, Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, IMF
AI isn’t replacing jobs—it’s replacing borders. The new workforce is global, digital, and 24/7.”, Tsedal Neeley, Harvard Business School, author of The Digital Mindset
“Resilience is no longer a buzzword—it’s a board-level mandate. Every global supply chain is being reimagined in real time.”, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General, World Trade Organization
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Highlights in issue #133:
Global growth forecast slashed by IMF over tariff impact
US Consumer Sentiment Plummets on Trump Trade War
China Has Accumulated 70% of the World’s AI Patents
Visualizing Global AI Investment by Country
How Top Economies Generated Electricity in 2024
Brand Global News Section: IHOP®, KFC® and Texas Roadhouse®
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“Global growth forecast slashed by IMF over tariff impact – The forecast for US economic growth for this year has been given the biggest downgrade among advanced economies by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) due to uncertainty caused by trade tariffs. Growth is now expected to be 1.8% this year, down from the IMF’s estimate of 2.7% for the US in January. The sharp increase in tariffs and uncertainty will lead to a “significant slowdown” in global growth, the Fund predicts. The IMF predicts the global economy will grow by 2.8% this year, down from its previous forecast of 3.3%, and by 3.0% in 2026.”, BBC, April 22, 2025
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“Trade turmoil takes hold – Uncertainty looms in the latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions, say Senior Partner Sven Smit and coauthors. Trade policy changes and geopolitical instability are now seen as the primary disruptors. Geopolitical risks have dominated survey respondents’ focus for the past three years, but concerns related to trade issues have surged and are now on par with geopolitics. In fact, over the past six months, the share of respondents citing trade-related changes as a major disruption to the global economy has more than doubled.”, McKinsey & Co., April 23, 2025
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“Here’s How Big the AI Revolution Really Is – OpenAI launched ChatGPT on Nov. 30, 2022, as a “low-key research preview.” In reality, it heralded the arrival of mainstream generative AI, the kind of artificial intelligence that creates and interprets text and images in an almost humanlike way. Google, Meta and other tech behemoths immediately shifted gears to focus on this new flavor of AI, and a boom was born. More than two years later, OpenAI still has the most popular product. This web-user data doesn’t even reflect people using ChatGPT on mobile apps, where it has a similar lead. But its competitors, including Google and China’s DeepSeek, are gaining their own audiences on the web—and in their respective apps.”, The Wall Street Journal, April 23, 2025
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“Are you polite to ChatGPT? Here’s where you rank among AI chatbot users – Most of us are nice, but some only out of fear. For some 12% of respondents to a new survey, it really is the case that they’re polite to AI because they fear the future consequences. That’s according to in-depth research conducted in December 2024 by Future, the publisher which owns TechRadar. The survey of more than 1,000 people found that while roughly 1 in 2 people use AI (51% of surveyed people in the US, and 45% in the UK), not everyone is kind to chatbots such as ChatGPT and their smart speakers. In the US, 67% of people who use AI are polite to it, while in the UK 71% are polite.”, Techradar, February 2, 2025
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“Visualizing Global AI Investment by Country – From 2013 to 2024, the U.S. has raised nearly half a trillion dollars in private investment for AI. The next three countries are China ($119B), the UK ($28B), and Canada & Israel ($15B each). Countries are investing heavily in artificial intelligence to position themselves for a future that could look significantly different from today. Greater investment in AI typically translates into stronger innovation ecosystems, which can attract top talent and fuel groundbreaking research that drives long-term economic growth.”, Visual Capitalist, April 21, 2025
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“Charting the Global Economy: US Dollar Slide Evocative of Nixon – The dollar is on pace for its worst performance during the first 100 days of a US presidency since Richard Nixon was in the White House as Donald Trump imposes tariffs and attempts to reshape global trade. Trump’s trade policy — aimed at rejuvenating domestic manufacturing, shoring up the industrial base and improving national security — has pushed investors into assets outside of the US. That’s led to a weakening in the greenback and lifted other currencies alongside gold. Meanwhile, data this week showed China remains dependent on foreign demand and South Korean exports to the US declined this month. Government forecasts pointed to a German economy that will struggle to expand this year.”, Bloomberg, April 26, 2025
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“Demand slump fuelled by Trump tariffs hits US ports and air freight – Bookings plunge as importers hold off on shipping goods to America in hope of Beijing-Washington deal. Logistics groups said container bookings to the US have fallen sharply since the introduction of 145 per cent tariffs on Chinese imports to the US. The Port of Los Angeles, the main route of entry for goods from China, expects scheduled arrivals in the week starting May 4 to be a third lower than a year before, while airfreight handlers have also reported sharp falls in bookings. Bookings for standard 20-foot shipping containers from China to the US were 45 per cent lower than a year earlier by mid-April, according to the latest available data from container tracking service Vizion.”, The Financial Times, April 27, 2025
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“Cocoa: The Global Trade of “Brown Gold” – Last year, a cocoa shortage drove up prices for European chocolate makers and consumers. This was largely due to an exceptionally wet rainy season as well as a viral cocoa disease that severely impacted the 2023/2024 harvest in West Africa. However, the situation is expected to improve this year, according to industry experts. In a note published at the end of February, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) estimated that the 2024/2025 harvest is expected to show a surplus, after three consecutive years of deficit…….global cocoa market relies heavily on harvests in the Gulf of Guinea for its supply. Nearly 65 percent of the world’s cocoa is harvested in just four West African countries: Côte d’Ivoire (38 percent), Ghana (12 percent), Nigeria (7 percent), and Cameroon (7 percent). South America comes in a distant second place for volume, with Ecuador and Brazil as the main producing countries, accounting for 10 percent and 4 percent of global production, respectively.”, Visual Capitalist and International Cocoa Organization, April 18, 2025
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“Plastics are greener than they seem – Even if the world needs to become much better at managing their waste. In 2000 some 234m tonnes of plastic were produced. By 2021 annual production had roughly doubled, with the trade in plastics (and goods containing it) estimated to be worth $1.2trn each year. The production of plastics, which generally involves breaking down fossil fuels into their constituent hydrocarbon building blocks, such as ethylene and propylene, releases lots of carbon dioxide. The production and disposal of plastics is currently responsible for around 3.4% of the world’s annual greenhouse-gas emissions, more than the aviation industry’s 2.5%. Then there is what happens to the 350m tonnes that are thrown away each year. Possible health risks have generated a renewed focus on where much of the world’s plastic waste ends up and have led to a growing number of countries adopting ambitious recycling targets. The eu, for example, wants to recycle 55% of all plastic packaging by 2030. Yet only 9% or so of used plastic is ever turned into something else, up from 4% in 2000.”, The Economist, April 16.
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“How Top Economies Generated Electricity in 2024 – Fossil fuels made up nearly 60% of 2024 electricity generation. Coal accounts for 35% of total power generation. Global energy demand grew faster than average in 2024, driven by rising electricity use across sectors. The power sector led the surge, with demand growing nearly twice as fast as overall energy use—fueled by increased cooling needs, industrial activity, transport electrification, and the expansion of data centers and AI. Despite a growing push toward cleaner energy sources, coal remains the leading source of electricity generation worldwide. In 2024, fossil fuels accounted for nearly 60% of global power generation, with coal alone contributing 35%, according to the International Energy Agency. While renewable energy continues to expand, making up about one-third of total electricity production, the global energy mix still leans heavily on traditional sources.”, IEA – Global Energy Review 2025, April 18, 2025
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Global & Regional Travel News
“Southwest Airlines drops forecast as US trade war shakes industry – Southwest Airlines became the latest U.S. carrier on Wednesday to withdraw its financial forecast as President Donald Trump’s trade war has created the biggest uncertainty for the industry since the COVID-19 pandemic. With little clarity on how consumers will behave in the face of a potentially worsening economy, airlines are struggling to accurately forecast their business. Alaska Air Group also pulled its 2025 profit forecast on Wednesday, citing the prevailing macroeconomic uncertainty. Earlier this month, Delta Air Lines and Frontier scrapped their forecasts. Last week, United Airlines gave two different forecasts, a highly unusual move, saying it was impossible to predict the macro environment this year.”, MSN, April 23, 2025
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Book Review
Our Dollar, Your Problem, By Kenneth Rogoff (2025) . In Our Dollar, Your Problem, Harvard economist and former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff delivers a compelling analysis of the U.S. dollar’s dominant role in the global economy and the internal challenges threatening its supremacy.Rogoff argues that the era of “Pax Dollar”—where the dollar serves as the world’s primary reserve currency—is under threat, not from external competitors like the euro or renminbi, but from within the United States itself. He highlights issues such as rising public debt, fiscal irresponsibility, and potential political interference in institutions like the Federal Reserve as key factors undermining global confidence in the dollar. The book provides historical insights spanning seven decades and warns that continued fiscal mismanagement could lead to a sudden loss of the dollar’s global standing, echoing Hemingway’s depiction of bankruptcy: gradually, then suddenly.
Rogoff’s work is particularly relevant in light of recent U.S. tariff policies and their implications for international trade and financial stability. It serves as a crucial read for global business leaders seeking to understand the evolving dynamics of currency dominance and the importance of maintaining fiscal discipline to ensure economic resilience. Financial Times
Editor’s Note: This summary is from the book’s listing on Amazon.com. This past weekend this new book also hahd rfeviews in both the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal.
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Country & Regional Updates
China
“China Has Accumulated 70% of the World’s AI Patents – America’s share has fallen from roughly 40% in 2010, to 14% in 2023. In the U.S., AI patenting is largely concentrated among companies like IBM, Microsoft, and Google. In China, AI patenting is more distributed across tech firms (e.g. Baidu, Tencent), government organizations, and universities. Note that 2023 is the most recent year for which data is accessible. All figures were sourced from patent-level bibliographic records in PATSTAT Global, provided by the European Patent Office (EPO).”, Visual Capitalist, April 17, 2025
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India
“India’s Economy to Grow 6.5% Despite Global Swings, RBI Says – “While this rate is lower than in recent years and falls short of India’s aspirations, it remains broadly in line with past trends and the highest among major economies,” Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra said in a speech in Washington on Friday and posted on RBI’s website Sunday. The outlook for global growth has taken a beating as US President Donald Trump’s tariffs spark a global trade war. To support growth, the RBI cut interest rates in early April and changed its policy stance to accommodative, signaling more easing.”, Bloomberg, April 27, 2025
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United States
“Rubio unveils sweeping reorganization of State Department – The Trump administration’s proposed shake-up targets human rights programs and others focused on war crimes and democracy. The effort targets some human rights programs and others focused on war crimes and democracy, according to internal documents shared with The Washington Post. As part of the plan, senior officials would submit to department leadership a path to reduce U.S.-based staff by 15 percent, according to the documents, potentially affecting hundreds of jobs, though there would be no immediate layoffs. This plan includes the elimination of 132 offices and 700 positions, said a congressional aide who reviewed the documents. Many others would be transferred or “reorganized,” though such changes were not clearly explained — leaving questions about how the proposed shake-up would functionally alter things, the aide said.”, The Washington Post, April 22, 2025
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“US Consumer Sentiment Plummets on Trump Trade War – As US President Donald Trump departed for Italy to attend the funeral of Pope Francis, the news at home for his administration was not good as the week came to an end. On the economic front, there is record fear among his constituents. US consumer sentiment fell to one of the lowest readings on record and long-term inflation expectations climbed to the highest since 1991 on worries over the domestic consequences from his tariffs. Economists see Trump’s policies, and in particular his global trade war, as making the chances of a self-induced recession a coin flip.”, Bloomberg, April 25, 2025
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Vietnam
“Tariff Threat Throws Vietnam’s Factories Into Race to Ship Goods – Vietnam furniture exporter Paul Yang is in a 90-day race. The vice president of a factory that makes indoor wood furnishings for the likes of Williams-Sonoma, Inc. and Crate & Barrel Holdings Inc. is being urged by American customers to ship “anything that’s ready” to them in the window of normalcy President Donald Trumpgranted before the risk of punishingly high levies hits Vietnamese products exported to the US. It may be the last opportunity to secure revenue from a customer base that buys goods equivalent to over a quarter of a $400 billion economy if the Southeast Asian country doesn’t secure a deal before Trump’s grace period ends. Nowhere is the perilous situation felt more deeply than in Vietnam’s southern industrial province Binh Duong. With almost half of the $34.5 billion of goods exported out of Binh Duong last year shipped to the US, the region is especially vulnerable to tariff shocks.”, Bloomberg, April 16, 2025
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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification
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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News
“New Reciprocal Tariffs Impact on Franchisors and Franchisees and Recommended Proactive Measures – The current tariff increases and volatility are creating challenges. In April 2025, President Trump implemented new “reciprocal” tariffs, introducing a 10% tariff on goods from most countries, and significantly higher rates for goods from countries with which the US has the largest trade deficits….As of April 9, there is a 90-day pause on the increase in reciprocal tariffs for all countries with reciprocal tariff rates above 10%, except for China. Many franchise-driven industries are impacted, including service-based brands and retail franchises.”, Franchising.com, April 24, 2025.
Editor’s Note: This is a second article on the impact of tariffs on franchises by Joyce Mazero, co-chair of Polsinelli’s Global Franchise and Supply Network practice, Josh Goldberg, an associate in Polsinelli’s Global Franchise and Supply Network practice and Alissa Chase, an associate in Polsinelli’s International Trade practice group.
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“How AI is Revolutionizing Franchise Development: Smarter Sales for Responsible Growth – Imagine a franchise sales environment where every lead receives personalized attention, every follow-up is timely and relevant, and every sales process continually evolves based on real-time data insights. It might sound futuristic, but thanks to Artificial Intelligence (AI), this is already becoming a reality in franchise development.”, BrightFran, April 28, 2025. Compliments of The Franchise Consortium
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“Webinar provides a close look at NZ prospects for U.S. franchises -In a well-attended webinar held yesterday, organised by the U.S. Commercial Service and the International Trade Organisation, U.S.-based franchisors and suppliers to the sector were given a comprehensive overview of the New Zealand franchise market. Jonathan Watt of the U.S. Commercial Service gave an overview of the New Zealand franchise market, explaining firstly that the population of New Zealand is comparable to that of New York, Singapore, or Hong Kong, but spread across a land mass similar to the UK or Japan. Stewart Germann of Stewart Germann Law Office in New Zealand, and well-known to many attendees as a CFE-accredited IFA member, spoke next, covering a range of important legal considerations of bringing a franchise to New Zealand from the United States. Daniel Cloete, the National Franchise Manager for Westpac New Zealand spoke next, advising attendees that there are four main banks funding franchise businesses in New Zealand, along with several smaller finance companies, indicating a robust financial support system for franchises. Dr. Callum Floyd of Franchize Consultants explained the main functions of the Franchise Association of New Zealand (FANZ), a membership-based organisation established in 1996, including their important advocacy, research partnership and compliance roles and the events that help bring NZ franchising networks together every year.”, Franchise New Zealand magazine, April 24, 2025
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“The Chain Restaurant Charging You Nearly 100% More For Breakfast In 2025 – Budget-savvy readers are likely wondering about the dishes to avoid ordering at IHOP. The country-fried steak and eggs saw an individual raise of 95%, from $7.99 to $15.59. The sought-after 2x2x2 combo is now priced 129% higher at an eye-watering $12.59 rather than $5.49. Times are certainly changing. Even the humble milkshake couldn’t escape, with a 111% rise to $7.99. Second in sky-high command? Texas Roadhouse was the runner-up, with a 46% increase in its menu prices. Admittedly, that’s considerably less than IHOP’s 82% — a colossal difference despite being in close quarters on the leaderboard.”, Tasting Table, April 28, 2025
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“5 Of The World’s Most Unique KFC Locations – Whether you’re exploring Egypt or find yourself on a road trip across the United States, you may want a familiar taste to keep you fueled during your adventures. We’ve rounded up a list of five KFC locations that offer some points of interest to consider while you sink your teeth into crispy chicken and refresh yourself with a cold beverage.”, The Tasting Table, April 25, 2025
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“Legal Impacts of the Economic Uncertainty Created by the Multiple Announcements of New Tariffs on the Quebec Franchise Sector – The current economic uncertainty, exacerbated by the new tariffs imposed by the U.S. Trump administration, poses major challenges in a wide range of sectors in Quebec, and the franchise sector is obviously no exception. This article explores the legal implications of this situation, focusing on the obligations of Quebec, Canadian and American franchisors, as well as the importance of sound trademark management by franchisors operating a network of Canadian franchises, and more specifically Quebec franchises, in these times of economic change.”, TCJ, March 31, 2025. Article compliments of Franchise New Zealand magazine.
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To receive our biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
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William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ companies global.
| To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ |
Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking
For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 132, Tuesday, April 15, 2025
Uncertainty, Historic Market Rally, Tariff Chaos , CEO Confidence
Commentary for the 132nd issue: The quotes in this issue are all about the tariff and trade situation we find ourselves in today. In stunning U-turn, Trump walks back some tariffs, triggering historic market rally. Extreme’ US-China decoupling could cost US$2.5 trillion in equity, bond sell-off: Goldman. Companies Getting ‘A Bit Tired’ of Tariff Chaos, DHL CEO Says . Uncertainty returns CEO confidence to pre-election levels.
One More Thing: Ladies and Gentlemen, this is getting serious – China has ordered its airlines not to take any further deliveries of Boeing Co. jets or parts from the US as part of the tit-for-tat trade war that’s seen US President Donald Trump levy tariffs of as high as 145% on some Chinese goods.
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But First……The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.
PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896
Link to our current and past newsletters: https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“Tariffs will raise prices, slow growth, and increase recession risk.” – Jamie Dimon, CEO, JPMorgan Chase
“Most CEOs I speak with believe the U.S. is already in recession.” – Larry Fink, CEO, BlackRock
“We’re committed to keeping prices low during this turbulent time.” – Doug McMillon, CEO, Walmart
“Apple is accelerating India-made iPhone shipments to avoid tariff impacts.” – Tim Cook, CEO, Apple
“Tariffs raise prices, cut profits, and increase unemployment.” – David Kelly, Global Strategist, J.P. Morgan AM
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Highlights in issue #132:
In stunning U-turn, Trump walks back some tariffs, triggering historic market rally
Extreme’ US-China decoupling could cost US$2.5 trillion in equity, bond sell-off: Goldman
Companies Getting ‘A Bit Tired’ of Tariff Chaos, DHL CEO Says
China Orders Boeing Jet Delivery Halt as Trade War Expands
Why Europe is a Prime Destination for U.S. Restaurant Franchise Brands
Uncertainty returns CEO confidence to pre-election levels [Q1 2025 CEO Index]
Agentic AI: What It Is, How It Works, and Why It Matters
Brand Global News Section: Burger King®, McDonalds® and Tim Hortons®
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“Companies Getting ‘A Bit Tired’ of Tariff Chaos, DHL CEO Says – Fatigue is setting in among companies and manufacturers trying to navigate President Donald Trump’s whipsawing tariff moves, according to DHL Group Chief Executive Officer Tobias Meyer. Meyer, head of one of the world’s biggest logistics companies, warned companies and people are getting “a bit tired” with the constantly shifting announcements. ‘They don’t know, even if something is announced, whether two days later it’s not changed again,” Meyer said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “You really see some fatigue of decision makers in manufacturing and also in the distribution sector.’, Bloomberg, April 13, 2025
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‘From Anxious to Petrified’: Consumer Sentiment Plunges Further – The University of Michigan’s closely watched index hit its second-lowest reading on record, dragged down by fears of higher prices and unemployment. The University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index, released Friday, nosedived to 50.8 in April from 57 last month. Sentiment has been falling steadily throughout 2025. Expectations for inflation also hit the highest level in 44 years, according to the survey. Sentiment is now at its second-lowest level in history, according to the survey. It was slightly lower in June 2022, when inflation was soaring thanks to snarled supply chains and pandemic buying. Back in 2022, the index touched 50, which was the lowest reading on record going back to 1952. Sentiment declined for Democrats, Republicans and independents alike.”, The Wall Street Journal, April 11, 2025
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Agentic AI: What It Is, How It Works, and Why It Matters – Agentic AI isn’t exactly a new concept. Researchers have been digging into it for years. But over the past year, interest has really taken off, and it’s not just hype. According to Deloitte’s State of Generative AI in the Enterprise report, survey respondents identified agentic AI (52%) and multi-agent systems (45%), its more advanced form, as AI’s two most intriguing aspects today. Agentic AI is an advanced form of artificial intelligence designed to complete tasks with minimal human involvement. It addresses challenges in real time using AI agents — machine learning models that simulate human decision-making. In a multi-agent system, each of these agents takes a smaller task, and when they work together, they’re coordinated seamlessly to hit a larger goal. Traditional AI follows tight rules and requires human input, whereas agentic AI is more autonomous.”, From a LinkedIn post on April 14, 2025 by Neil Sahota, Chief Executive Officer ACSILabs Inc
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Uncertainty returns CEO confidence to pre-election levels [Q1 2025 CEO Index] – Uncertainty rules, much like it did through the recovery phase of a post-pandemic economy. The hopes and beliefs following the election for a pro-business tax and regulatory environment, along with stabilized inflation and interest rates and increased business activity, have been replaced by mounting concerns about economic instability. With this uncertainty comes a reversal in post-election optimism, as the Vistage CEO Confidence Index fell 22.1 points to 78.5 in Q1 2025. The dramatic quarter-over-quarter drop is historic on the surface, but in reality, it’s just a 6.6-point drop from the Q3 2024 reading of 85.1 and is still above levels recorded in 2022 and 2023.”, Vistage, April 7, 2025
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“Chaos at European ports as trade war leaves ships in limbo – Queues are building across UK and Europe amid tit-for-tat tariffs and plan to impose $1m fee on Chinese-made vessels docking in the US. Major ports across the UK and mainland Europe are clogging up as ships carrying goods between the US and China are left in limbo due to the trade war between the world’s largest two economies. Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs of 145 per cent on Chinese imports — and Beijing’s retaliatory taxes of 125 per cent — has sparked chaos among shipping operators as end-customers renege on orders. Hundreds of ships are queuing up to enter ports across Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and the UK, with industry executives now worried that the chaos could be just the start of serious disruption. US officials will this week unveil plans for a $1 million fee — up from between $20,000 and $50,000 — to be imposed on all Chinese-made vessels docking at American ports.”, The Times of London, April 13, 2025
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Book Review
The Storm Before the Calm: America’s Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond
The master geopolitical forecaster and New York Times bestselling author of The Next 100 Years focuses on the United States, predicting how the 2020s will bring dramatic upheaval and reshaping of American government, foreign policy, economics, and culture.
In his riveting new book, noted forecaster and bestselling author George Friedman turns to the future of the United States. Examining the clear cycles through which the United States has developed, upheaved, matured, and solidified, Friedman breaks down the coming years and decades in thrilling detail.
American history must be viewed in cycles—particularly, an eighty-year “institutional cycle” that has defined us (there are three such examples—the Revolutionary War/founding, the Civil War, and World War II), and a fifty-year “socio-economic cycle” that has seen the formation of the industrial classes, baby boomers, and the middle classes. These two major cycles are both converging on the late 2020s—a time in which many of these foundations will change. The United States will have to endure upheaval and possible conflict, but also, ultimately, increased strength, stability, and power in the world.
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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification
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Country & Regional Updates
Argentina
“How Milei made Argentina deserving of an IMF bail-out – He offers the only way out of a supremely difficult situation. Since December, when the imf’s last agreement with Argentina ran out, the country’s president has sought a fresh bail-out. Indeed, his efforts include an executive order to remove the need for Congress to approve the deal. Since its first bail-out in 1958, the country has become the fund’s most difficult customer, endlessly stacking up debts, which now come to $41bn (or 28% of all of the imf’s lending). Mr Milei’s first deal will be Argentina’s 23rd. As the fund contemplates just how much cash to hand over, the question is whether his vim can overcome the country’s spendthrift tendencies.”, The Economist, April 3, 2025
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Brazil
“Brazil’s Stagnant Economy Is the Poster Child for High Tariffs – While high tariffs protect some jobs in the country, they have also driven up costs for consumers and helped make domestic industry inefficient. Brazil’s World War II-era policy of protectionism has kept some jobs home but has also driven up costs for consumers and, according to economists, stifled competition and innovation. That iPhone 16 made in Brazil costs almost twice as much as a Chinese-made model sold in the U.S. for $799. The strategy has done little to boost Brazil’s industrial production. On the contrary, it has lowered productivity and led to some notorious price-fixing scandals, economists said. Manufacturing made up 36% of gross domestic product in 1985. Now it has fallen to about 14%, the worst example of “premature deindustrialization” in the world, according to the São Paulo-based Institute for the Study of Industrial Development. Growing at a little over 2% a year on average for the past two decades, Brazil never became the economic powerhouse its leaders once envisioned, limiting its influence on the world stage. Brazil’s labor productivity is about a quarter of that of the U.S., according to Our World in Data, a database compiled at the University of Oxford.”, The Wall Street Journal, April 12, 2025
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China
| “China Orders Boeing Jet Delivery Halt as Trade War Expands – China has ordered its airlines not to take any further deliveries of Boeing Co. jets as part of the tit-for-tat trade war that’s seen US President Donald Trump levy tariffs of as high as 145% on Chinese goods, according to people familiar with the matter. Beijing has also asked that Chinese carriers halt any purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from US companies, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing matters that are private. The order came after China unveiled retaliatory tariffs of 125% on American goods this past weekend, the people said. Those levies on their own would have more than doubled the cost of US-made aircraft and parts, making it impractical for Chinese airlines to accept Boeing planes.”, Bloomberg, April 15, 2025 ============================================================================================ |
| “UPS reinstates China-to-US fee — with no end date – The $0.29 per pound surcharge is returning April 13 as the two countries’ trade war continues to escalate. The parcel carrier did not list an end date for the “Surge Fee,” which has a rate that can be adjusted at any time. The fee applies to a shipment’s billable weight and is also subject to UPS’ fuel surcharge. UPS previously levied the Surge Fee from March 16-29. The company said with the added surcharge, it aims to continue satisfying shippers’ needs ‘without compromising on the quality or timeliness of service expected from us.”’ The surcharge’s return comes as supply chains attempt to navigate volatile trade relations between the U.S. and China, and heavy price hikes for goods traveling between the two countries.”, Supply Chain Dive, April 11, 2025 ============================================================================================== “‘Extreme’ US-China decoupling could cost US$2.5 trillion in equity, bond sell-off: Goldman – Threat of decoupling emerged after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said delisting of US-traded Chinese companies was back on the table. US investors could be forced to sell nearly US$800 billion of Chinese stocks trading on American exchanges in case of a decoupling, the US investment bank’s analysts led by Kinger Lau and Timothy Moe said in a report on Monday. On the flip side, China could liquidate its US Treasury and equity holdings amounting to US$1.3 trillion and US$370 billion, respectively. The sell-off was based on the assumption that US investors would be restricted by US regulations from such investments, they said.”, South China Morning Post, April 14, 2025 |
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India
“How India’s middle-class debt crisis is threatening growth – A rise in unsecured credit among a consumer group that symbolises the country’s investment potential is hurting its economic ambitions. ‘Everybody wants a laptop, everybody wants a TV, everybody wants a smartphone,’ says Anil Agarwal, the billionaire chair of Indian natural resources and energy conglomerate Vedanta. ‘They want a car, they want a scooter and their children to study in a good school — demand is tremendous.’ But a day of reckoning is fast approaching. Household debt has grown to about 43 per cent of GDP in June, from just over 35 per cent in March 2020, according to the latest RBI data. A crackdown in 2023 by the Reserve Bank of India, which warned retail lending was getting out of hand, has hit financial sector earnings just as many Indians are struggling to repay their loans.”, The Financial Times, April 13, 2025
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“India sees opportunity, as well as risk, in Trump’s trade war – Narendra Modi hopes to strike a deal that will unleash growth. On April 2nd Mr Trump unveiled “reciprocal” tariffs on America’s trade partners, including a 27% levy on Indian goods. In public, Indian officials sound upbeat. They suggest India can weather any short-term pain and quickly agree to a trade deal with America that would unleash growth. Some even compare it to 1991. But privately many worry that any deal would face fierce resistance at home. And a drawn-out trade war could jeopardise the ambitious economic and political agenda of the prime minister, Narendra Modi. India had tried to appease Mr Trump by reducing tariffs on goods including bourbon and motorbikes before Mr Modi visited Washington in February.”, The Economist, April 2, 2025
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Mexico
“Can Mexico make hay after avoiding the reciprocal-tariff tantrum? It may struggle to do so. The United States is Mexico’s key trading partner, receiving more than 80% of Mexican exports—equivalent to just under 30% of Mexico’s gdp. This is a larger share than any other emerging market’s. Although Mexico is still vulnerable to Mr Trump’s fickle policymaking, for the time being it has an opportunity to seize. Today 49% of Mexican exports travel under the rules-of-origin requirements of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (usmca), and continue to enjoy tariff-free access. The rest is subject to a 25% tariff that Mr Trump announced in February.”, The Economist, April 10, 2025
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New Zealand
New Zealand
“New Zealand Central Bank Cuts Rates, Keeps Door Open to More – The central bank cut the official cash rate to 3.50% from 3.75%. New Zealand’s central bank has lowered interest rates, making it one of the first central banks to respond to the economic threats posed by the escalating trade war. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday brought its official cash rate to 3.50% from 3.75% and left the door open to further cuts “as the extent and effect of tariff policies become clearer.” It said the Trump administration’s trade policies could slow global growth soon. Will the U.S. follow suit? Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that the central bank doesn’t need to rush to lower rates, indicating that a cut isn’t on the table at its May meeting. He said the Fed would know more “as the months go by.”, The Wall Street Journal, April 9, 2025
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United Kingdom
“Britain is unusually well shielded from a tariff shock – Credit good luck more than diplomatic ingenuity. But as Donald Trump’s on-and-off-again tariff rodeo shakes the world economy, Britain has found itself in the rather unfamiliar position of being quite well insulated, and even in places poised to benefit from the turmoil. Certainly, any global slowdown would be bad news for an open and internationally exposed economy like Britain’s. But the direct hit from Mr Trump’s new tariffs is unlikely to be vast. Even before Mr Trump appeared to climb down on April 9th, offering a 90-day pause on tariffs above 10% to all countries except China, Britain had landed with the lowest 10% rate on most of its goods exports. Unlike every other economy of comparable size, though, the bulk of British exports are in services, which are not directly affected by the tariff conversation. America is Britain’s second-largest trading partner, after the European Union (eu), but two-thirds of that trade is in services, mostly in desk work like banking or law.”, The Economist, April 8, 2025
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United States
“In stunning U-turn, Trump walks back some tariffs, triggering historic market rally – Trump’s turnabout on Wednesday, which came less than 24 hours after steep new tariffs kicked in on most trading partners, followed the most intense episode of financial market volatility since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. The upheaval erased trillions of dollars from stock markets and led to an unsettling surge in U.S. government bond yields that appeared to catch Trump’s attention. Since returning to the White House in January, Trump has repeatedly threatened an array of punitive measures on trading partners, only to revoke some of them at the last minute. The on-again, off-again approach has baffled world leaders and spooked business executives, who say the uncertainty has made it difficult to forecast market conditions. The day’s events cast into stark relief the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies and how he and his team create and implement them.”, Reuters, April 9, 2025
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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades
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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News
“Why Europe is a Prime Destination for U.S. Restaurant Franchise Brands – The European market has become increasingly attractive to U.S.-based restaurant franchise brands, driven by diverse growth opportunities and consumer demand. With its blend of mature and emerging markets, rich culinary culture, and expanding urbanization, Europe offers a fertile ground for restaurant brands seeking to extend their global reach. Europe offers U.S. restaurant franchises a compelling combination of mature markets, high consumer demand, and strategic expansion opportunities. By leveraging strong franchise partnerships, adapting to cultural preferences, and strategically targeting both mature and emerging markets, American brands can achieve sustained success across the continent. However, to thrive in this complex environment, U.S. brands must prioritize local adaptation and long-term planning. With the right strategy, Europe can become a cornerstone of global growth for ambitious restaurant franchises.”, Franchising.com, April 2025. By Rebecca Viani is Partner with WhiteSpace Partners, a London-based firm, focused on the development and execution of market entry, franchise development, and acquisition strategies for restaurant brands expanding into Europe and the Middle East.
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‘Navigating International Franchising: Lessons from Expanding into the UK – Expanding a franchise into a new international market is both an exciting opportunity and a complex challenge. While the United Kingdom offers a promising landscape for franchise growth, its unique regulatory framework, consumer expectations, and business environment require a thoughtful and strategic approach. Expanding a franchise internationally, especially in a well-regulated and competitive market like the United Kingdom, requires patience, adaptability, and a strong strategy. Understanding local consumer behavior, navigating legal challenges, building a strong team, and utilizing franchise support systems are essential to a smooth and successful market entry. While every international expansion comes with its own set of hurdles, approaching the process with a clear plan and local expertise makes all the difference. With the proper foundation in place, franchising in the UK can be an incredibly rewarding endeavor that opens the door to long-term growth and sustainability.”, Franchising.com, April 2025, By Matias Puga H. is master franchise owner, School of Rock Latin America and School of Rock United Kingdom.
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“Who’s the King now Trade Mark troubles in the Burger Kingdom? The long running legal battle between Burger King Corporation and a Pune-based eatery in the case of Anahita Irani & Anr. Vs. Burger King Corporation[1] raises important questions about trademark rights, territoriality, and the protection of local business interests. At the heart of the dispute is the use of the trade name Burger King, a mark registered in India by the multinational fast-food giant, but which has been used by the Pune restaurant since 1992, long before the company entered the Indian market. The case highlights tension between the global reach of multinational corporations and the rights of prior users of a trademark in a specific jurisdiction. The Pune restaurant had been using the words ‘Burger King’ since 1992 in India and the US-based Burger King Corporation, entered the Indian market in 2014. Burger king corporation had been using the mark and trade name ‘Burger King’ since 1954 and operated a worldwide chain of 13,000 fast food restaurants in more than 100 countries. Moreover, it had registered the mark in India in 1979.”, Chadha & Chadha Intellectual Property Law Firm from Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
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“Tim Hortons launches retail coffee range in South Korea – Tim Hortons has launched its retail lineup in South Korea as part of its strategy to broaden the brand’s reach. ‘Like all Tim Hortons coffees, our bagged coffee retail products start with 100 per cent premium Arabica beans that are roasted with care and blended to perfection,’ said Mieka Burns, VP of consumer packaged goods at Tim Hortons. ‘Guests can already savour their favourite Tim Hortons beverages in restaurants and they can now complement that experience at home.’ Tim Hortons’ whole bean and fine grind coffee are available at the Lotte Mart grocery store in Gangdong Millennial Jungheung S-Class Complex, and will soon be available in department stores and online. The Canadian coffee chain debuted in South Korea in 2023 and has quickly expanded to 16 locations.”, Inside Retail, April 11, 2025. Compliment of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
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“McDonalds Philippines gears up for aggressive store expansion – McDonald’s Philippines is gearing up for a more aggressive store expansion, with plans to add 800 stores in its network before its new 20-year franchise term expires. Kenneth Yang, president and CEO of Golden Arches Development Corp. (GADC), also known as McDonald’s Philippines, said the company is looking to open more or less 65 new stores this year. ‘Most likely we should grow about the same as what we did last year which is 65 stores. Hopefully, we surpass it (this year), but most likely, it’s like that,’ he said. Yang said that McDonald’s Philippines’ upcoming expansion will not be primarily in the National Capital Region anymore.”, MSN, April 8, 2025. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
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To receive our biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!
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William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ companies global.
| To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ |
Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking
For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896
