Global Business Development

EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 81, Tuesday, May 2, 2023

Posted on May 1st, 2023 in World Economy | Comments Off

Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)

Introduction: In this issue, inflation continues to fall for most developed economies. AI may give as many jobs as it takes away….over time. The numbers for China seem mixed. European consumer trends report. Some developing countries try to move away from the US$. And we track the interesting growth of gold production over 200 years.

The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources to update our 1,400+ readers in 20+ countries on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad.

To receive this biweekly newsletter that is read by over 1,400 people in 20 countries, click here:

First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others

“To be successful, you must act big, think big and talk big.”, Aristotle Onassis

“Whenever you see a successful business, someone once made a courageous decision.”, Peter F. Drucker

The secret of getting ahead is getting started.”, Mark Twain

Highlights in issue #81:

Global Economy Gets Boost but Inflation Worries Linger

What is generative AI?

Tech, AI Driving Job Changes for Nearly a Quarter of All Workers

2023 European Consumer Trends & Attitudes

US firms’ confidence in China’s economy is rising, but so are fears over bilateral tensions

Brand Global News Section: Anytime Fitness®, Johnny Rockets, McDonalds®, Popeyes®, Shake Shack® and Subway®

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Interesting Data and Studies

“Global Economy Gets Boost but Inflation Worries Linger – U.S., European business activity accelerated in April, but price pressures picked up as central banks consider additional interest-rate increases. U.S. and European business activity rose in April at the fastest pace in about a year, a boost for the global economy but a potentially complicating factor for central banks working to reduce high inflation. Demand for services drove the growth, according to surveys by data firm S&P Global covering U.S., eurozone and U.K. businesses. That kept pressure on price increases in regions where inflation last year reached its highest level in decades.”, Wall Street Journal, April 21, 2023

“What is generative AI? Generative artificial intelligence (AI) describes algorithms (such as ChatGPT) that can be used to create new content, including audio, code, images, text, simulations, and videos. Recent breakthroughs in the field have the potential to drastically change the way we approach content creation. While many have reacted to ChatGPT (and AI and machine learning more broadly) with fear, machine learning clearly has the potential for good.”, McKinsey, January 19, 2023

“Tech, AI Driving Job Changes for Nearly a Quarter of All Workers – Technology may eliminate 26 million jobs over next five years. Green transition will provide opportunities for job creation. Over the next five years, nearly a quarter of all jobs will change as a result of AI, digitization and other economic developments like the green energy transition and supply chain re-shoring, according to a report published by the World Economic Forum in Geneva on Monday. While the study expects AI to result in “significant labor-market disruption,” the net impact of most technologies will be positive over the next five years as big data analytics, management technologies and cybersecurity become the biggest drivers of employment growth.”, Bloomberg, April 30, 2023

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation & Trade Issues

“The ECB’s inflation dilemma: can Lagarde silence her critics again? – The Financial Times has spoken to a dozen current and former members of the ECB’s rate-setting governing council in the past few weeks as well as several economists, financiers and analysts who follow the central bank closely. Most of them praise Lagarde for rebuilding unity among ECB monetary policymakers and preventing recent economic shocks from spiralling into a financial crisis. But critics complain she lacks economic expertise, was late to react to soaring inflation and should communicate more clearly.”, The Financial Times, April 30, 2023

“Visualizing Global Gold Production Over 200 Years – Although the practice of gold mining has been around for thousands of years, it’s estimated that roughly 86% of all above-ground gold was extracted in the last 200 years. With modern mining techniques making large-scale production possible, global gold production has grown exponentially since the 1800s. The above infographic uses data from Our World in Data to visualize global gold production by country from 1820 to 2022, showing how gold mining has evolved to become increasingly global over time.”, Visual Capitalist / Our World In Data, April 26, 2023

“Here’s How Supply Chains Are Being Reshaped for a New Era of Global Trade –

Nearshoring. Automation. Supplier diversification. Sustainability. Companies are adapting their operations to changing market pressures and geopolitics. When a measure of strains on global supply chains fell earlier this year to levels last seen before the Covid-19 pandemic, it signaled to some that the product shortages, port bottlenecks and shipping disruptions of the past three years were over and that a new era of stability was on the horizon.”, The Wall Street Journal, April 24, 2023

“Oil exploration: modest revival leaves majors ahead by a whisker – Total spend on exploration is set to rise to $65bn in 2023, from $57.5bn last year. It takes a brave oil and gas major to wager on wildcat wells, as risky drilling is termed. Most have taken an axe to budgets, believing the energy transition will stem demand for fossil fuels. Now there are inklings of excitement in exploration. That is good news for the likes of Shell, TotalEnergies and drilling services groups. But investors yearning for the return of roustabout rock ‘n’ roll in London stocks will be disappointed.”, The Financial Times, April 24, 2023

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Global & Regional Travel Updates

“American Airlines Sees Topping Profit Forecast as Global Demand Grows – Airline is boosting capacity for international flights. Ease of Covid restrictions is boon for overseas travel. The company, like its largest rivals, is seeing a rebound in flights outside the US after travelers pulled back on those trips last year when many Covid-related restrictions were still in place. The airline is devoting 80% of its capacity growth this quarter to long-haul international routes.”, Bloomberg, April 27, 2023

“These Airlines Are Using AI to Make Long-haul Flights More Efficient – The goal is to cut down on delays and cancellations. Airlines like Air New Zealand and Qantas are using AI-powered software to determine fuel-efficient routes in efforts to prevent having to stop to refuel, Bloomberg reported. (The former launched a 17.5-hour flight from New York City to Auckland, New Zealand. The latter plans to launch the longest flights in the world between Sydney to New York and London with its Project Sunrise.) The software, which is designed to get better the more it’s used, warns pilots about bad weather, helps them catch a tailwind, and more.”, Travel & Leisure magazine, April 24, 2023

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Country & Regional Updates

Canada

“Small businesses expect to grow in next 6 months despite economic challenges – 62% of small and medium-sized businesses anticipate growth. Business leaders of Canadian small and medium-sized companies are optimistic about the future, with 62 per cent expecting to grow in the next six months, according to a new report by Zoho Corp. More specifically, 38.2 per cent expect growth of one to 10 per cent, 15.4 per cent estimate growth of 10 to 20 per cent and 8.5 per cent forecast growth of above 20 per cent, the Zoho Canada SMB Outlook Report, which surveyed 1,016 Canadian business leaders in March, showed. However, 31.2 per cent are expecting zero growth and only 7.8 per cent are expecting declines.”, The Financial Post, April 21, 2023

China

“US firms’ confidence in China’s economy is rising, but so are fears over bilateral tensions – AmCham China poll finds a sharp increase in negative sentiment regarding the impact of souring relations between the world’s two largest economies. However, more business executives are visiting China, and more foreigners say they would consider moving to China. A total of 59 per cent of 109 respondents had a positive outlook on China’s economic recovery in AmCham’s latest “flash survey” conducted from April 18-20, marking a significant increase from 33 per cent in the previous survey results released in March after 319 respondents were polled in October, November and February. Yet, pessimistic views on bilateral relations have worsened, rising across the two surveys from 73 per cent to 87 per cent.”, South China Morning Post, April 26, 2023. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

“If China’s growth is so strong, why is inflation so weak? This newspaper described China’s reopening as the biggest economic event of the year. So why has it had such a small effect on prices? Some suspect the recovery is weaker than the official statistics portray. Analysts at China Beige Book, which relies on independent surveys to track the country’s economy, told clients they were “snickering” at official figures showing that retail sales surged by 10.6% in March compared with the previous year.”, The Economist, April 27, 2023

Eurozone

“Eurozone returns to weak growth in first quarter – GDP fails to hit expectations as German stagnation weighs on outlook. The eurozone economy returned to growth in the first three months of the year as output expanded by 0.1 per cent. But the figure undershot economists’ expectations of stronger growth as stagnation in Germany, the region’s largest economy, offset expansions elsewhere in the bloc. The eurozone’s economy is now 1.3 per cent larger than in the first quarter of 2022. That compares with US growth of 1.6 per cent over the same period and a 4.5 per cent expansion of the Chinese economy in the same period.”, The Financial Times, April 28, 2023

“2023 European Consumer Trends & Attitudes – Are European consumers different from consumers elsewhere in the world? Marigold, in conjunction with Econsultancy, asked 7,392 consumers across Europe (U.K., Germany, France, Spain, Denmark, Sweden, and the Benelux region) for their thoughts on 2023. Here’s some of what they found, all reported in the Europe Consumer Trends Index 2023. The 41-page report focuses on European consumer attitudes and trends in six areas: messaging, brand loyalty, privacy and personalization, the rising cost of living, and consumer sentiment by industry.”, Euroconsultancy, April 2023. Compliments of Eddy Goldberg, Franchising.com

India

“India Pushes Rupee Settlements With Trade Partners Amid Dollar Shortages. – New Delhi is boosting its efforts to expand the use of the Indian rupee (INR) in international trade, as it seeks to increase exports to nations facing a shortage of the U.S. dollar. The United Arab Emirates, a rising economy in the Middle East, is now set to join 18 other countries that are settling cross-border trade transactions with the rupee. India’s push to advance rupee transactions in global trade follows in the lines of similar efforts by other countries, notably China and Russia, to ditch the dollar as the world looks warily at the weaponization of the greenback by the United States.”, International Business Times, May 1, 2023

Japan

“Japan Inflation Outpaces Forecasts Again as BOJ Prepares to Meet – Gauge of underlying price trend at strongest since 1981. Consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 3.1% in March from a year ago, matching the pace of the previous month, the internal affairs ministry said Friday. Economists had expected the inflation measure to ease to 3%. A separate gauge of price growth that excludes both energy and fresh food also proved stronger than expected, climbing to 3.8% for its highest reading since 1981.”, Bloomberg, April 20, 2023

Spain

“No rain in Spain pushes olive oil prices to record levels – Continuing drought conditions leave traders and analysts worried about this year’s output. Olive oil prices have surged almost 60 per cent since June to roughly €5.4 per kilogramme, on the back of a severe drought in Europe that last year ruined olive crops across the continent. Spain, the largest olive oil producer, was hit particularly hard. The country’s farmers typically produce half of the world’s olive oil, though annual supplies have roughly halved to about 780,000 tonnes in the past 12 months.”, The Financial Times, April 23, 2023

United Kingdom

“Demand for services pushes private sector to 12-month high – The flash composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI), which is compiled by the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply and S&P Global, jumped by more than expected to hit 53.9 on the index this month, up from 52.2 in March. City economists had predicted that it would stay at 52.2. It is the third consecutive month in which there has been a rise in business activity, adding to signs that the wider economy is holding up despite the cost of living squeeze on households.”, The Times of London, April 21, 2023

United States

“US manufacturing contracts again in April, but pace slows – Manufacturing PMI rises to 47.1 in April New orders improve moderately; prices paid pick up. U.S. manufacturing pulled off a three-year low in April as new orders improved slightly and employment rebounded, but activity remained depressed amid higher borrowing costs and tighter credit, which have raised the risk of a recession this year.Despite the weakness in factory activity and demand for goods reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday, there was a build-up of inflation pressures last month.”, Reuters, May 1, 2023

“US growth slowed sharply in first quarter as Fed pushed rates higher – GDP climbed 1.1% on annualised basis as consumers spent heavily in face of elevated inflation. The world’s largest economy grew 1.1 per cent on an annualised basis between January and March, according to preliminary data released by the commerce department on Thursday. The figures marked an abrupt deceleration from the 2.6 per cent pace registered in the final three months of 2022 and came in well below economists’ expectations of a 2 per cent increase.”, The Financial Times, April 27, 2023

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Brand & Franchising News

“Information statement for prospective franchisees – The Australian government has released a new version of the ‘Information statement for prospective franchisees. This document must be given to potential franchisees by a franchisor if they express an interest in a franchise. It must be given as soon as practicable, but not later than 7 days after interest is expressed. The information statement must be given to the potential franchisee before giving them any other documents. It is part of Australia’s Franchising Code of Conduct and is a legal requirement for every foreign or local franchisor to comply with if offering franchises in Australia.”, Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, April 2023. Compliments of Rod Young, Chairman, DC Strategy, Sydney

“Anytime Fitness has signed a master franchise deal for Austria with Manfred Mitterlehner, the fitness and personal training operator of Austria-based Mitterlehner Fitness. He will continue to operate Mitterlehner Training Physio brand locations separately and independently. Within the next 12 months, however, he will convert 9 existing Mitterlehner Fitness Clubs across Austria to Anytime Fitness clubs. He also plans to open two new Anytime Fitness clubs in Vöcklamarkt and Andorf in this autumn. With this deal, parent company Self Esteem Brands will have Anytime Fitness clubs operating in 40 countries and territories.”, Franchising.com, April 27, 2023

“Johnny Rockets Touches Down in India at Kempegowda International Airport – Classic Burger Chain Broadens International Presence with Newest Bengaluru Location. FAT Brands Inc. announces a new location in India at the Kempegowda International Airport in partnership with HMSHost. Located in Bengaluru, the capital city of Karnataka, the new Johnny Rockets serves the classic fare that put the brand on the map over 35 years ago, including juicy, made-to-order burgers and hand-spun shakes. ‘Expanding Johnny Rockets’ presence in non-traditional venues continues to be a key growth objective for the brand,’ said Jake Berchtold, COO of FAT Brands’ Fast Casual Division. ‘Strategically, we are pleased to spearhead this type of expansion in a country like India, where we see significant opportunity to build our footprint.’”, Franchising.com, April 27, 2023

“McDonald’s Restaurant Revamp Is Paying Off, CEO Says – Net income rises 63% in first quarter. McDonald’s Corp.’s efforts to improve operations across its U.S. restaurants are making orders faster and more accurate, its chief executive said, as the burger giant pursues a broader restructuring. McDonald’s said that restaurant staffing levels are improving, and that the chain is continuing to draw business from rival fast-food restaurants despite raising menu prices.”, The Wall Street Journal, April 25, 2023

“Popeyes (China) spreads its wings for a new operator – Tims China announced it would acquire the exclusive rights to develop and sub-franchise the fried chicken brand earlier this year. Tims China completed a transaction on March 30 to become the exclusive operator and developer of the Popeyes brand on the Chinese mainland. Under the transaction, Popeyes China would bring US$30 million in cash to Tims China and the latter will earmark an additional US$60 million to develop its Popeyes China business over the coming years.”, Shina.cn, April 24, 2023

“‘Too Many Seats, Too Few Butts’ Mean Changes at Your Favorite Restaurant – As eating out is replaced by ordering out, restaurant real estate gets a radical makeover. For most people, a meal at an upscale chain is about the ambience as much as the food. A surprisingly high 18% of sales at American fine dining establishments last year, surveyed by consulting firm Technomic, were to people for whom there is no place like home—except maybe their car. At the other end of the quality and price spectrum–fast food–about 60% of meals already were consumed off-premises in 2019. That rose to about three-fourths in the final quarter of 2022.”, The Wall Street Journal, April 29, 2023

“Restaurant Earnings Have Been Strong. Why Some Operators See Trouble Ahead – Menu prices are up across the board—but if the current spate of restaurant earnings are anything to go by, that hasn’t ruined people’s appetites for dining out. This week, McDonald’s, Domino’s Pizza, and Chipotle Mexican Grill all released first-quarter results—and beat analysts’ estimates. ‘Our base case does not include a recession, or certainly not a meaningful recession’, said John Hartung, Chipotle’s chief financial and administrative officer, in a call with analysts. BofA’s economics team has a different view, arguing that the report’s strength was thanks to a series of one-off boosts to spending, including an unseasonably warm January and an 8.7% increase to Social Security benefits. “The handoff to 2Q spending is soft and the outlook for the consumer over the rest of 2023 is murky,” the team wrote.”, Barron’s, April 28, 2023

“Shake Shack to Open in Israel in 2024 – Shake Shack will partner with Harel Wizel and Yarzin Sella Group to bring Shake Shack to Israel. Harel Wizel is the CEO of Fox Group, a fashion and lifestyle retail group with more than 1,000 global stores. Yarzin Sella Group is one of Israel’s leading culinary groups that owns and manages more than 30 restaurant concepts, and operates high-end corporate dining services in more than seven countries.” QSR Magazine, April 19, 2023

“Subway shed more U.S. sandwich shops in 2022 – Subway, which is exploring a potential $10 billion sale, further shrank last year in the United States as franchisees closed 2.7% of the brand’s sandwich shops, squeezing its royalties and fees. The chain shed another net 571 locations in 2022 after even steeper closings in previous years in the United States, its largest global market, according to the latest disclosure document it provides to franchisees who are interested in buying locations.”, Reuters, May 1, 2023

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, economic development and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing environment. Our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provides us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries.

William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global.

With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant taking 40 franchisors global.

For a complimentary 30 minute consultation on how to take your business global successfully, contact Bill Edwards at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com or +1 949 224 3896.

www.edwardsglobal.com

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EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 80, Tuesday, April 18, 2023

Posted on Apr 17th, 2023 in World Economy | Comments Off

Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)

Introduction: In this issue, are we approaching the end of the central bank interest rate increases? There is a natural gas surplus due to increased U.S. LNG shipments and conservation post Ukraine invasion. Delta has already sold 75% of its seats for summer travel. Inflation continues to fall except for sugar. And the global future lies with electric cars ready or not!

To receive this biweekly newsletter that is read by over 1,400 people in 20 countries, click here:

First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others

“Europe was created by history. America was created by philosophy.”, Margaret Thatcher

“To understand Europe, you have to be a genius – or French.”, Madeleine Albright

“You can’t go back and change the beginning, but you can start where you are and change the ending.”, C. S. Lewis

Highlights in issue #80:

Global economy fends off geopolitical and banking threats

End May Be in Sight for Global Rate-Hike Cycle as Fed Nears Peak

World Gas Supply Shifts From Shortage to Glut With Demand Muted

The future lies with electric vehicles

Subway Sale Process Heats Up as Bidders Head to Second Round

Winning in China Top priorities for global apparel and fashion brands

Brand Global News Section: Burger King®, Chick-Fil-A®, Papa Johns® and Subway

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Interesting Data and Studies

“Global economy fends off geopolitical and banking threats – China, US, eurozone, India and UK well-placed to avoid slowdown going into IMF-World Bank spring meetings. The world’s leading economies are showing surprising resilience despite facing a perilous moment, according to research for the Financial Times that suggests the global economy may avoid a sharp slowdown this year. China, the US, the eurozone, India and the UK are all growing faster than had been expected late last year, the latest edition of the twice-yearly Brookings-FT tracking index found, with consumer and business confidence rising after a rocky end to 2022.”, The Financial Times, April 9, 2023

“End May Be in Sight for Global Rate-Hike Cycle as Fed Nears Peak – Quarterly outlook on what to expect from monetary policy. One more Fed hike and a pause could herald pivot by peers. Most global central banks may be either close to a peak or already done with interest-rate hiking, auguring a hiatus before possible monetary loosening comes into view.”, Bloomberg, April 9, 2023

“Intelligence for Sanctions Compliance – International sanctions and trade restrictions are growing in scope and complexity, not least in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Compliance with such laws can require insights into third-parties that cannot be achieved with automated screening or desktop research. For situations of heightened risk, an investigative approach that goes beyond the public record is recommended.”, Enquirisk, April 10, 2023

Editor’s Note: this site and company offer unusual insight into the all-important but often murky area of sanctions that companies need to know about when doing business on a global basis

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation & Trade Issues

**Annual % change in consumer price index**

“Global inflation tracker – Inflation has started to show signs of easing from the multi-decade highs reached in many countries following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The latest figures for most of the world’s largest economies still make for worrying reading, with price pressures remaining high as the war in Ukraine continues to keep energy and food prices elevated. But in some countries pressures have eased and energy and food wholesale prices have declined. Economist and investors also expect inflationary levels to stabilise in the next few years.”, The Financial Times, April 12, 2023

“World Gas Supply Shifts From Shortage to Glut With Demand Muted – Europe is reaching storage milestones weeks earlier than usual. Analysts uncertain over how long gas supply glut will last. The world is becoming awash with natural gas, pushing prices lower and creating an overabundance of the fuel in both Europe and Asia — at least for the next few weeks…… inventories are filling up from South Korea to Spain, a result of mostly mild winter weather and efforts to reduce consumption. Tankers filled with liquefied natural gas — a stopgap in replacing lost Russian pipeline flows — now often struggle to find a home, spending weeks idling at sea.”, Bloomberg, April 15, 2023

“Sugar Prices Bubble Up to Highest Since 2012 – The surge could lead to costlier sweet foods and drinks. Bad weather in India, China and Thailand has hit sugar production in all three countries, just as China’s economy has begun to reopen following the end of coronavirus lockdowns. Winners from the rally include Brazilian farmers, who are on track for a solid crop. Losers could include both food companies and consumers.”, The Wall Street Journal, April 14, 2023

“The future lies with electric vehicles – The car industry is electrifying rapidly and irrevocably. A draft law approved by the European Union in February may mean a total ban on new ice cars by 2035 (though Germany has won an exception for cars using carbon-neutral synthetic fuels). Governments and cities are cracking down on carbon and other emissions that affect local air quality. China is demanding that 20% of cars must be (electric) by 2025.”, The Economist, April 14, 2023

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Global & Regional Travel Updates

“Delta’s International Flights Are Already 75% Booked for Summer Travel – Want to fly Delta this summer? The increased demand follows a record March in which consumer demand ‘was well ahead of pre-pandemic levels,’ Delta president Glen Hauenstein said in an earnings call this week reviewed by Travel + Leisure. As a result, Delta is growing its international capacity this summer, and flying its largest-ever Transatlantic summer schedule (including new flights to London, increased service to Paris, and beyond).”, Travel & Leisure, April 14, 2023

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Country & Regional Updates

Australia

“May rate rise on the cards after strong jobs numbers – Overall consumer spending appears to be coming off the boil following 10 Reserve Bank interest rate increases and the inflationary squeeze on household incomes. But the 53,000-strong job surge in March, reported yesterday, brings a May rate rise back onto the table, reported Michael Read, following the central bank’s pause this month. If so, that would come exactly a week before the May 9 federal budget. Amid the loss of tech and consulting jobs, the red-hot labour market has been one of the big surprises of the pandemic recovery.”, Australia Financial Review, April 13, 2023

Canada

“Companies turn to baristas, free food and socializing to lure employees back to the office – Manulife’s chief executive Roy Gori says a complete overhaul of the company’s nearly 100-year-old office building, as well as pro-actively listening to employee feedback on their hybrid arrangement, has already paid off. ‘We’re not seeing any decrease in productivity,’ Mr. Gori says over lunch in the company’s renovated second floor cafeteria. “If anything, I think we’re going to see – and probably already are seeing – productivity improve because people are now being more purposeful with their time.”, The Globe And Mail, April 11, 2023

China

“Chinese Exports Surge as Trade With Russia and Southeast Asia Jumps – Shipments to Russia more than doubled in March from a year earlier. Outbound shipments from China soared 14.8% in March from a year earlier, data from China’s customs bureau showed Thursday, reversing the 6.8% decline recorded during the first two months of 2023 and ending a nearly half-year string of such drops stretching back to October.”, The Wall Street Journal, April 13, 2023

“Winning in China Top priorities for global apparel and fashion brands – The apparel, fashion, and luxury market in China continues to be one of the largest and most dynamic in the world. After a difficult 2022, the industry is likely to resume double-digit growth, fueled in part by a rising middle class. However, for multinational companies, doing business in China is getting harder. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the China Consumer Confidence Index fell by 28 percent from October 2021 to October 2022, dampening consumer spending.2 Chinese champions are increasingly outpacing their global peers, and many are adopting a more agile operating model and supply chain to enable greater responsiveness to changing consumer preferences.”, McKinsey, March 30, 2023. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

India

“India’s plan to export its wildly successful digital payments system – After starting cross-border payments with Singapore, India is now setting up more international partnerships. The country’s biometric ID system, Aadhaar, already has takers in developing countries in Africa and Southeast Asia that are seeking digital sovereignty. With wider adoption of its unified payments interface, India’s digital stack is now positioned as a ‘benign’ alternative to international networks like Swift.”, Rest Of World, April 10, 2023

Japan

“Japan to Drop COVID-19 Testing, Vaccination Protocols Next Month — What to Know: ‘All border measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 will be lifted on May 8, 2023,’ the Japan National Tourism Organization announced. Currently, all travelers heading to Japan are required to show either proof of three doses of a COVID-19 vaccine or proof of a negative test conducted within 72 hours of departure, according to the Japan National Tourism Organization.”, Travel & Leisure, April 7, 2023

Turkey

“Turkey to make inaugural deliveries from big Black Sea gas discovery – Turkish Petroleum, the state oil and gas company, will on Thursday flip the switch on the Sakarya gasfield development, roughly three years after making the find, according to its chief executive, Melih Han Bilgin.”, The Financial Times, April 16, 2023

United Kingdom

“Big firms a lot more confident about the future – Confidence among finance chiefs at the UK’s biggest companies has seen its sharpest rise since 2020. The Deloitte survey of chief financial officers showed sentiment rebounded as their concerns about energy prices and Brexit problems eased. There were 25% more chief financial officers feeling better about the future than worse, compared to 17% more feeling the opposite three months ago. Not since the Covid vaccine rollout has there been such a swing in confidence.”, BBC News, April 16, 2023

“No recession — but growth to be subdued, forecasters warn – The forecasting group expects the gross domestic product (GDP) measure of output to rise by 0.2 per cent. This reflects a significant upgrade from the 0.7 per cent decline expected in its January forecast. Output is then expected to rise by 1.9 per cent next year and 2.3 per cent in 2025. Inflation will begin to decline quickly because prices this year are compared with already high prices last year, and household bills are set to drop from July once households benefit from the sharp decline in natural gas prices over winter, the EY Item Club said.”, The Times of London, April 17, 2023

United States

“The Q4 2022 Vistage CEO Confidence Index rose 1.9 points in Q4 to reach 75.3, which is the fourth lowest reading since the Great Recession. Looking across the six core components of the Index, the shifts in CEOs’ responses between improved, stayed the same and worsened largely offset each other. While plans for increased hiring in the year ahead rose, that improving sentiment was tempered by confidence in the economy remaining near historic lows.”, Vistage, January 5, 2023

“Homebuilder sentiment jumps to highest level since September – Confidence among builders in the U.S. housing market increased more than expected in April as declining mortgage rates and low inventory helped drive demand higher for new homes. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which measures the pulse of the single-family housing market, rose one point to 45, the highest reading since September.”, Fox Business, April 17, 2023

“Small businesses are less optimistic about the future, survey finds – The National Federation of Independent Businesses released survey results showing their small business optimism index decreased in March, ‘marking the 15th consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98.’ “Small business owners are cynical about future economic conditions,” NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said. ‘Hiring plans fell to their lowest level since May 2020, but strong consumer spending has kept Main Street alive and supported strong labor demand.’”, Washington Examiner, April 12, 2023

Brand & Franchising News

“Burger King is selling more Whoppers than ever before in early days of its U.S. turnaround – Seven months after Burger King unveiled a strategy to revive its U.S. business, the chain is selling more Whoppers than ever before. Burger King U.S. President Tom Curtis told CNBC that preliminary improvements to restaurant operations and new marketing campaigns are already boosting sales and customer satisfaction, although it’s still early innings.”, CNBC, April 5, 2023

“Chick-fil-A Has the Country’s ‘Slowest Drive-Thru,’ But It’s Still Bringing in Major Profits – The chicken chain brought in $18.8 billion in U.S. sales last year, marking consistent upward growth since 2019, according to the brand’s Franchise Disclosure Document released earlier this week. But Chick-fil-A also ranked last for speed of service, according to The 2022 QSR Drive-Thru Report, with the average transaction taking 325.47 seconds (for reference, Taco Bell ranked number one at 221.99 seconds).”, Entrepreneur magazine, April 7, 2023

“Papa Johns Plots Global Domination – QSR Magazine reports that Papa Johns has announced, in partnership with PJP Investments Group, plans to open a whopping 650 new restaurants in India by 2033. That’s a lot of stores. According to Papa Johns’ filings, as of 2019 the chain consisted of 3,142 locations in the United States and 5,395 restaurants worldwide. The new locations in India would account for 11% of all Papa Johns units—which is wild, considering the restaurant operates in 49 other countries.”, The Takeout, April 4, 2023

“Subway Sale Process Heats Up as Bidders Head to Second Round – The first pool of bids were lodged in March, and several interested parties have already been thrown out by the company’s advisers for offering too little, the people said. Subway is aiming for a valuation of $10 billion or more. More than 10 possible suitors, including some big names in private equity, are conducting due diligence that should draw to a close by the end of this month, the people added. Final bids will likely be due around then and a buyer could emerge by the end of May, the people said.”, The Wall Street Journal, April 13, 2023

To receive this biweekly newsletter, click here : https://bit.ly/geowizardsignup

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global.

For a complimentary 30 minute consultation on how to take your business global successfully, contact Bill Edwards at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com or +1 949 224 3896.

www.edwardsglobal.com

Download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business at this link:

Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking

EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 79, Tuesday, April 4, 2023

Posted on Apr 3rd, 2023 in World Economy | Comments Off

Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)

Introduction: In this issue, inflation falling around the world, AI spreading, EV adoption spreading, oil rising again, Middle East IPOs are up, UK house prices are down and post pandemic western food & beverage brands are once again on the rise in China as Chinese consumers are heading back to stores and restaurants.

To receive this biweekly newsletter that is read by over 1,400 people in 20 countries, click here:

https://bit.ly/geowizardsignup

First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others

“Take risks. Failure is a stepping stone to success.”, Arianna Huffington, co-founder of The Huffington Post

“If you always do what you’ve always done, you’ll always get what you’ve always got.”, Henry Ford, founder of the Ford Motor Company

“The road to success is always under construction.” , Lily Tomlin, actress and comedian

This issue’s quotes are compliments of Zyro.com

Highlights in issue #79:

Oil Prices Jump as Saudi-Led Group Plans Output Cuts

Eurozone inflation lower than expected, as energy costs drop

Artificial intelligence has advanced despite having few resources dedicated to its development

Starbucks braced for price war in China as rivals pile into coffee market

2023 Franchising Economic Outlook Predicts Industry Will Stay Strong

Brand Global News Section: BurgerFi®, Dominos®, Haidilao®, KX Pilates®, Popeyes® and Starbucks® China

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Interesting Data and Studies

“Artificial intelligence has advanced despite having few resources dedicated to its development – now investments have increased substantially. In the past, relatively few researchers were working on AI technology and there was little commercial interest and funding. Now, the available resources have increased substantially. We should expect that the field continues to advance rapidly.”, Our World In Data, March 29, 2023

“The World’s 25 Richest Countries by GDP per Capita – Measuring GDP per capita is a common measure of the economic wealth on a per person basis. This article sorts countries according to the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections on GDP per capita for 2023. Currently this metric is at $13,920 globally in 2023, up from $13,400 in 2022 and $11,160 in 2020, all nominal figures, not accounting for inflation.”, Visual Capitalist, March 29, 2023

“Actions the best CEOs are taking in 2023 – Corporate leaders are addressing the risks while finding the opportunities in digital disruption, the economy, and geopolitical uncertainties. the torrent of trends, ideas, and information that leaders now face makes knowing what matters more difficult than ever…….McKinsey conducted its latest CEO Excellence Survey, to take the pulse of leading CEOs’ evolving priorities and the actions they’re taking in response. We started by asking a group of the world’s top-performing CEOs which trends will have the biggest impact on how they lead their business in 2023 compared with past years. Their answers suggest that three “true signals” matter most: digital disruption, the economy, and geopolitics.” McKinsey, March 15, 2023

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation & Trade Issues

**Data explorer: consumer price inflation – Annual % change in consumer price index**

“Oil Prices Jump as Saudi-Led Group Plans Output Cuts – Potential U.S. recession and China’s demand will help determine whether crude pushes even higher. Tallying up Sunday’s commitments by Saudi Arabia, Iraq and others, OPEC producers say they will cut daily output by more than 1.1 million barrels from May, according to Natasha Kaneva, head of commodities research at JPMorgan Chase.”, The Wall Street Journal, April 3, 2023

“Electric vehicles are forecast to be half of global car sales by 2035 – EV sales will soar to about 73 million units in 2040, up from around 2 million in 2020, according to forecasts by Goldman Sachs Research. The percentage of EVs in worldwide car sales, meanwhile, is expected to rise to 61% from 2% during that span. The share of EV sales is anticipated to be well over 80% in many developed countries.”, Goldman Sachs, February 10, 2023

“The global rice crisis – Rice feeds more than half the world—but also fuels diabetes and climate change. Asia accounts for 90% of the world’s rice production and almost as much of its consumption. Asians get more than a quarter of their daily calories from rice. The un estimates that the average Asian consumes 77kg of rice a year—more than the average African, European and American combined. Hundreds of millions of Asian farmers depend on growing the crop, many with only tiny patches of land. Yet the world’s rice bowl is cracking.”, The Economist, March 28, 2023

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Global & Regional Travel Updates

“Flights at Cathay Pacific budget carrier HK Express ‘back to pre-pandemic levels by Friday – Airline seeks 500 staff as it ramps up services. Low-cost carrier took delivery of the first of 16 narrow-body Airbus A321neo aircraft on Wednesday… the carrier’s service frequency would return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the month with more than 400 flights per week and 500 by the summer to around 22 destinations. HK Express is looking to expand network and aims to hire 180 pilots and more than 300 cabin crew by the end of the year.”, South China Morning Post, March 29, 2023

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Country & Regional Updates

Argentina

“IMF approves next tranche of emergency loans to Argentina – The $5.4 billion set for disbursement brings the total lent to the Latin American country under the Extended Fund Facility to $28.9 billion. Argentina is the target of the IMF’s largest assistance program. The International Monetary Fund’s executive board approved late on Friday the disbursement of $5.4 billion (approximately €4.97 billion) to Argentina, as part of a $44 billion loan program to the Latin American nation struggling with an ailing economy.”, Deutsche Welle, March 31, 2023

Canada

“Canada’s Population Grows by Over 1 Million for First Time – Annual expansion of 2.7% is fastest among advanced economies. Rush of newcomers strains housing market, health-care system. International migration accounted for 95.9% of the growth — a testament to Canada’s decision to counter the economic drag of an aging populace by throwing its doors open to newcomers.”, Bloomberg, March 27, 2023

China

“China’s Consumers Extend Economic Rebound From Pandemic – A gauge of activity in China’s services sector reached its highest level in more than a decade in March, a sign that Chinese consumers are heading back to stores and restaurants, powering an economic recovery following the end of almost three years of strict Covid-19 controls.”, The Wall Street Journal, Mach 31, 2023

Eurozone & European Union Countries

“Eurozone inflation lower than expected, as energy costs drop – Inflation in the Eurozone slowed sharply to 6.9% in an unexpected turnaround after months of steady increases. The 20 countries that make up the Eurozone recorded slowed inflation rates, although food prices rose with energy prices falling official, European Union’s statistics agency revealed on Friday. -Consumer prices in the Eurozone rose by 6.9% in March, but that represented a decrease from 8.5% in February, the data showed.”, Deutsche Welle, March 31, 2023

India

“From fast food to autos, India’s digitally connected users lure investors – China saw a jump in consumption from 2006 when, as per World Bank data, its per capita gross domestic product (GDP) crossed $2,000. India crossed that threshold in 2021, according to the bank’s latest available data, which could put it on a similar growth trajectory even though weak job growth and income inequalities in the country pose a risk to this outcome.

With the cheapest mobile data rates in the world, thanks to intense competition among telecoms providers, and the explosive growth of social media and personal entertainment, Indian consumers are going digital at a breakneck pace.”, Reuters, April 2, 2023

“India Offers Rupee Trade Option to Nations Facing Dollar Crunch – New Delhi has been pushing to internationalize the rupee Central bank unveiled plans for rupee settlement last year. India will offer its currency as an alternative for trade to countries that are facing a shortage of dollars in the wake of the sharpest tightening in monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve in decades. Facilitating the rupee trade for countries facing currency risk will help “disaster proof” them, Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal said during an announcement on India’s foreign trade policy Friday in New Delhi.”, Bloomberg, March 31, 2023

“India’s Emerging Foreign Policy – India’s economic rise has validated its historical efforts to maintain a diverse set of foreign relations. Russia’s war in Ukraine is both an opportunity and a challenge for New Delhi’s foreign policy approach. While managing pressures from Western governments to help isolate Moscow, the Indians have also been trying to assert themselves on the world stage. The South Asian powerhouse will not content itself with being merely an ally of the West and instead will maintain its policy independence, with implications for the U.S.-Chinese rivalry.”, Geopolitical Futures, March 29, 2023

Indonesia

“Nickel Revolution Has Indonesia Chasing Battery Riches Tinged With Risk – A wave of new supply from the Southeast Asian nation, key for climate goals, is challenging metal markets and a pristine environment. Within two years, Indonesia could supply 65% of the world’s nickel, up from 30% in 2020, Macquarie Group Ltd. estimates. With so much metal outside the London Metal Exchange and the Shanghai exchange, Indonesia threatens to upend even nickel pricing benchmarks.”, Bloomberg, March 28, 2023

Italy

“ChatGPT banned in Italy over privacy, data collection concerns – Calls have grown in the United States to stop development of the AI technology. The Italian Data Protection Authority said it is blocking OpenAI from processing the data from American users, and has opened an investigation into the organization. The order lasts until OpenAI respects the EU’s privacy law, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR).”, Fox Business, March 29, 2023

Japan

“Tokyo Inflation Slows Ahead of BOJ Leadership Change to Ueda – Production, retail sales improve in more positive sign Labor market worsens slightly in challenge for wages outlook. Consumer prices excluding fresh food in the capital rose 3.2% from a year ago, following a sharp deceleration in the previous month that was mainly driven by government subsidies for electricity costs, according to the ministry of internal affairs Friday.”, Bloomberg, March 30, 2023

South Korea

“Five trends that will define South Korean grocery in 2023 – South Korean consumers are increasingly shifting from cooking from scratch to eating out or more conveniently. What does “convenience” mean? According to our 2021 South Korea grocery survey,1 45 percent of consumers prefer prepackaged and partially cooked fresh meals that require some preparation (compared with 34 percent of the world), and 41 percent order prepared foods for delivery (versus 24 percent of the world).”, McKinsey, March 22, 2023

Mexico

“Mexico Sees Inflation Slowing to 4% in 2024 as Economy Grows 3% – Finance Ministry released preliminary budget plan for 2024 The country’s economy expected to grow 3% this year and next. Inflation in Latin America’s second-largest economy is expected to slow to 5% by the close of this year and reach 4% by the end of 2024, from the most recent level of 7.12% in early March.”, Bloomberg, March 31, 2023

Middle East Region

“Middle East on ‘radar’ of global investors as it enjoys IPO boom – Frenzy of activity across the region contrasts sharply with Europe’s moribund market. The 51 IPOs across the Middle East and north Africa last year was a record, according to EY. They raised $22bn, a 179 per cent increase on 2021, the advisory firm said, adding that this year’s market looked “healthy”. Financial regulatory reform, a privatisation push amid political stability and oil and gas prices that have risen significantly from their Covid-19 pandemic lows are driving both the IPO frenzy and private deals, bankers said.”, The Financial Times, March 27, 2023

United Kingdom

“Joining this trade partnership opens up a world of opportunity – The UK’s accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is a significant milestone for UK trade. This landmark deal will help the UK enhance its trading links in the Asia-Pacific region and strengthen its ties with some of the fastest-growing markets in the world. It is a marker of the UK’s strong position on the global stage that we are the first country from outside the Pacific Rim to join this bloc — and our presence will enhance its total value from 13 per cent of global GDP to 15 per cent, making it worth £11 trillion.”, The Times of London, April 1, 2023

“House prices see biggest annual fall since 2009 – House prices fell in March at their fastest annual pace for 14 years, according to the latest figures from the Nationwide. The lender said prices were down 3.1% compared with a year earlier, the largest annual decline since July 2009. The Nationwide said the housing market reached a “turning point” last year, after the financial market turbulence which followed the mini-budget. Since then, “activity has remained subdued”, it added.”, BBC News, March 31, 2023

“Businesses in battle to find skilled staff – Most British businesses are struggling to plug gaps in their workforces amid a shortage of skilled talent. About 80 per cent of companies reported difficulty filling jobs, according to the latest talent shortage survey by ManpowerGroup, the American recruitment giant. That marks the highest percentage since 2006, while the proportion of businesses reporting difficulties with recruitment has jumped from 13 per cent a decade ago.”, The Sunday Times of London, March 27, 2023

United States

“Remote work gains momentum despite return-to-office mandates from high-profile CEOs – In some major US cities, the number of job postings for remote-friendly roles is hitting record levels — and trending up. That’s the latest finding of researchers including Stanford University’s Nicholas Bloom who’ve been gathering data on remote work since the early days of the pandemic. Data from security firm Kastle Systems show that office occupancy in major US cities is only about half of the pre-Covid level.”, Fortune, March 25, 2023

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Brand & Franchising News

“2023 Franchising Economic Outlook Predicts Industry Will Stay Strong – Despite economic uneasiness from ongoing inflation, labor shortages and supply chain problems, the franchise industry remained healthy last year and most sectors are expected to grow steadily in 2023, according to the 2023 Franchising Economic Outlook Report by FRANdata. In 2022, total franchised units grew 2% to a total of 790,492. The report projects that franchisee-owned businesses will increase by 15,000 units, to a total of roughly 805,000 this year. Franchising will grow by about 254,000 jobs, a 3% increase over 2022.”, FranchiseWire, March 22, 2023

“Study Finds 2 Out of 3 Restaurant Franchise Operators Feel Optimistic – Yet another survey has confirmed that restaurant operators are most concerned about inflation as they operate in 2023. But TD Bank’s Restaurant Franchise Finance Group’s new survey also finds people in the restaurant industry optimistic about the future and finding opportunities to invest. The poll surveyed 300 restaurant franchise operators and other finance professionals at the 2022 Restaurant Finance and Development Conference in Las Vegas, Nevada, to identify restaurant franchise finance trends.”, Franchising.com, March 30, 2023

“The Franchise in Spain 2023 Report Shows Post-Pandemic Resilience – The data shows that the turnover (revenue) figure grew by 2.9%, from €26,154 million at the end of 2019 to €26,929 million at year-end 2022. In 2022 franchising in Spain provided jobs for 303,595 people, compared with 294,231 employed in 2019, an increase of 3.18%. The number of networks that make up the country’s franchise system fell slightly, from 1,381 at the end of 2019 to 1,375 at year-end 2022, a decline of 0.5%. The number of open establishments also fell slightly (0.7%), from 77,819 operational premises at the end of 2019 to 77,426 at the end of 2022. Of Spain’s 1,375 franchise networks, 1,137 (82.6% ) are of national origin. The remaining 238 brands (17.4%) come from a total of 24 countries.”, Franchising.com, March 28, 2023

“BurgerFi Predicts Growth Despite Financial Woes And Closures – BurgerFi closed 15 stores in 2022 and 17 in 2021, on top of many other pandemic-related closures in 2020 (via QSR Magazine). As of 2022, the chain has 114 total remaining stores, all located exclusively in the U.S., 11 of which it opened in 2022. The chain cited the previous store closures as the result of staffing shortages, lack of capital, and inadequate operational knowledge. Looking forward, BurgerFi expects to opens 15 to 20 stores in 2023, including airport restaurants…..”, Tasting Table, March 25, 2023

“Chinese top hotpot chain’s overseas unit sees profit this year – The overseas unit of China’s biggest hotpot chain Haidilao expects to return to profit this year, after posting almost 80% year-on-year growth in revenue for 2022 late on Thursday. Originally founded in Sichuan Province of China in 1994, Haidilao now operates more than 1,300 stores across China……Haidilao currently has 114 stores overseas, including a new store opened in Dubai this month, its first venture into the Middle East market.”, Reuters, March 30, 2023

“Domino’s (China) Pizza Franchiser DPC Dash Looks to Tap Hong Kong IPO Market – The pizza chain operator has set a price range of HK$41.4 to HK$55.0 a share. The latest offering is higher than its earlier plan to raise up to HK$567.50 million. The Shanghai-headquartered company began managing Domino’s Pizza outlets in China in 2010, and now operates more than 450 of the restaurants in Beijing, Shanghai and eight other cities across the country.”, The Wall Street Journal, March 15, 2023

“KX Pilates (Australia) eyes global expansion as it celebrates 100 studios – Founded by fitness entrepreneur Aaron Smith, KX Pilates opened its first studio in Melbourne in 2010 and now spans across 100 studios in Australia and the broader Asia Pacific region, including New Zealand, Indonesia, China and Taiwan, and is soon to launch in Singapore. It counts six international studios and 94 Australian-based studios in its franchised network, with Noosa taking the title as the 100th location. In 2023, a further 15 new studios are on the cards, and 2024 is forecasted to be bigger than ever for the global business.”, Smart Company AU, March 14, 2023. Compliments of Jason Gehrke, Franchise Advisory Centre, Brisbane

“Popeyes to Accelerate Growth in China – Roughly $90 million is being poured into growth and development efforts. Tims China, the master franchisee rapidly growing Tim Hortons across mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau, announced Thursday that it will spearhead growth for Popeyes as well. The company purchased PLKC International (Popeyes China), which holds exclusive rights to develop and sub-franchise Popeyes in mainland China and Macau.”, QSR Magazine. March 31, 2023. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

“Starbucks braced for price war in China as rivals pile into coffee market – Chains backed by private equity bet consumers will turn social pastime into daily routine. The US chain plans to open a store in China every nine hours to reach 9,000 locations by 2025, up from just over 6,000 currently. As with many consumer brands in China, Starbucks’s expectations of a big rebound rest on projections for a huge market opportunity, but they are tempered by increased competition from international and domestic rivals and often fickle consumer habits.”, The Financial Times, March 22, 2023

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To receive this biweekly newsletter, click here : https://bit.ly/geowizardsignup

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor – Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global.

For a complimentary 30 minute consultation on how to take your business global successfully, contact Bill Edwards at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com or +1 949 224 3896.

www.edwardsglobal.com

Download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business at this link:

Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking

EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 78, Tuesday, March 21, 2023

Posted on Mar 20th, 2023 in World Economy | Comments Off

Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)

Introduction: This issue’s quotes are all about banking over the past 250 years. Global business travel is almost back to pre-COVID levels. The world’s happiest country survey is out. European economies limp into 2023 but it could have been worse. U.S. inventories fall and small business confidence improves.

To receive this biweekly newsletter that is read by over 1,400 people in 20 countries, click here:

https://bit.ly/geowizardsignup

First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others

“If you owe the bank $100 that’s your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that’s the bank’s problem.”, J. Paul Getty, Founder, Getty Oil

“Banking is a very good business if you don’t do anything dumb.”, Warren Buffett,

Chairman and CEO, Berkshire Hathaway

“I sincerely believe that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies.”, Thomas Jefferson

Highlights in issue #78:

The World’s Happiest Countries in 2023

IATA Reports January Traffic At 84% Of 2019 Level

Where Students Choose STEM Degrees

How inflation has upped the price of your Big Mac

U.S. business inventories fall for first time in nearly two years

Brand Global News Section: Carl’s Jr®, Chick-Fil-A®, Restauramt Group (UK), Strong Pilates®, Subway®, Sweetgreen®, Wendys®

NOTE: Bolded headlines in this newsletter are live links where the article is available without a paid subscription.

Interesting Data and Studies

“Where Students Choose STEM Degrees – Many countries have tried to bolster enrollment in STEM to aid important growth industries like medtech, digital services, mobility or computer sciences. However, countries have had varying success, as data from UNESCO shows. In general, countries that have managed to produce a higher share of STEM graduates than elsewhere are more likely to be found in the Arab world, in Eastern Europe and also in East Asia. Using the latest available data from 2020 through 2022, Malaysia saw the highest share of STEM graduates in all tertiary education degree recipients at 43.5%.”, Forbes, March 10, 2023

“The World’s Happiest Countries in 2023 – Released today!! Are wealth and prosperity legitimate measures of happiness? How about safety and health outcomes? In the West, we view democracy as a key component to happiness, yet there are countries under authoritarian rule that score high in the Happiness Index. The map above is a global snapshot of life satisfaction around the world. It utilizes the World Happiness Report—an annual survey of how satisfied citizens are worldwide—to map out the world’s happiest and least happy countries. To create the index the map is based on, researchers simply asked people how satisfied they are with their lives. While there may be no perfect measure of happiness around the world, the report is a robust and transparent attempt to understand happiness at the global level.”, Visual Capitalist / World Happiness Report, March 20, 2023

“Are Western companies becoming less global? Operating as a multinational company has always involved difficulties, from co-ordinating across time zones to navigating a patchwork of regulatory regimes. The latest strains on globalised commerce—wrought by geopolitical tensions and rising protectionism—raise tricky questions for the corporate giants of the West that have been among globalisation’s biggest beneficiaries. Since 2010 the foreign sales of listed American and European companies have grown by a meagre 2% per year, down from 8% in the 2000s and 10% in the 1990s. American firms may have a quarter fewer foreign subsidiaries than a decade ago, on average, but the drop was more than offset by the number of them with a presence abroad.”, The Economist, March 16, 2023

Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation & Trade Issues

“Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, February 2023 – Some economic indicators strengthen amid persisting inflation and investor uncertainty; central banks keep to a tightening course. In the United States, positive retail sales totals and outsize jobs growth suggest a stronger business environment in early 2023. In China, the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for manufacturing, a key leading indicator, reached 52.6 in February, the highest reading in more than a decade. The nonmanufacturing PMI for China rose to 56.3 on higher services and construction activity in an economy awakening from the “zero-COVID” closures. In the eurozone, services growth pushed the composite PMI (for manufacturing and services) above the expansion line of 50 with a reading of 50.3 in January; the indicator then advanced to 52.6 in February, the highest mark recorded since May 2022.”, McKinsey, February 2023

“Charted: 30 Years of Central Bank Gold Demand – Did you know that nearly one-fifth of all the gold ever mined is held by central banks? Besides investors and jewelry consumers, central banks are a major source of gold demand. In fact, in 2022, central banks snapped up gold at the fastest pace since 1967. However, the record gold purchases of 2022 are in stark contrast to the 1990s and early 2000s, when central banks were net sellers of gold. The above infographic uses data from the World Gold Council to show 30 years of central bank gold demand, highlighting how official attitudes toward gold have changed in the last 30 years.”, Visual Capitalist, March 15, 2023

Global & Regional Travel Updates

“IATA Reports January Traffic At 84% Of 2019 Level – In its latest air passenger traffic report released yesterday, IATA said that January 2023 traffic increased by 67% compared to January last year. t’s not news that domestic traffic remained strong, with many nations already operating at pre-pandemic levels. The relaxing of travel restrictions in China is now starting to translate into airline passengers, which helped domestic RPKs to rise by 32.7% in January compared to the same month last year.”, Simple Flying, March 9, 2023

“Singapore Snatches Back ‘World’s Best Airport’ Crown From Qatar – Singapore’s Changi has regained its title as the world’s best airport, after losing its long-held crown to Qatar for two years running during the height of pandemic travel restrictions. The Asian hub edged Doha’s Hamad International Airport into second place, with Tokyo’s Haneda Airport bagging third, in the Skytrax World Airport Awards 2023. The US was conspicuous by its absence in the top 10. Paris Charles de Gaulle was Europe’s top performer, up one spot to fifth place, while Seattle-Tacoma International Airport was the highest ranked North American airport, languishing in 18th position — but an improvement from 27th place last year.”, Bloomberg, March 15, 2023

Country & Regional Updates

Argentina

“Argentina’s inflation rate soars past 100%, its worst in over 30 years – Annual rate of 102.5% is denting purchasing power, savings, economic growth and government’s chances in elections next year. In Argentina’s markets, shops and homes, the impact of rising prices is being felt keenly as one of the highest inflation rates in the world stretches people’s wallets. With inflation so high, prices change almost weekly.”, The Guardian, March 15, 2023

China

“Economy Rebounds but Further Acceleration Needed – The National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) release of February’s data gives us our first glimpse of how quickly the economy might rebound in 2023. Last year, GDP only grew by 3 percent, as the authorities implemented policies to stop the spread of the pandemic. This year, the government is targeting growth of around 5 percent. The increase in industrial value added was disappointing. It had risen by 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 and by 3.8 percent last year. However, the growth in service production was encouraging given that it had fallen by 0.1 percent last year and by 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter.”, Yicai Global, March 17, 2023

“China to Resume Issuing Range of Visas to Foreigners – China will resume issuing various types of visas to tourists and other foreign travelers from Wednesday, as the country lifts some of the last Covid restrictions that have hampered cross-border travel for the past three years. According to the Chinese foreign ministry, the move includes allowing foreigners with visas issued before March 28, 2020, which are still valid, to enter China.”, Caixin Global, March 14, 2023

Eurozone & European Union Countries

“European Economies Limp into 2023. It could have been worse – The European Union’s economy shrank slightly in the final quarter of 2022. It could have been worse. Most countries tolerated the sharp rise in energy prices without a major hit to growth. Employment also climbed slightly in both the eurozone and the EU. It remains to be seen how well Europe will withstand monetary tightening, the war, and warning signs in the banking sector, among other things, in 2023.”, Geopolitical Futures, March 17, 2023

India

“Air India Confident on Funding for World’s Biggest Aircraft Deal – Indian carrier placed order for 470 jets from Boeing. Air India Ltd. is in talks with banks to help fund its recently announced record aircraft order, benefitting from the support of new owner Tata Sons Ltd., the carrier’s chief executive officer said. ‘We have the backing of Tata Sons, so there is financing available for these aircraft,’ CEO Campbell Wilson said in an interview with Bloomberg News on the sidelines of the CAPA India Aviation Summit in New Delhi on Monday.”, Bloomberg, March 20, 2023

Indonesia

“Indonesia sets aside $455 million to subsidise electric motorcycle sales – Indonesia will allocate 7 trillion rupiah ($455.88 million) in state funds to subsidise electric motorcycle sales through 2024, officials said on Monday, as it pushes mass adoption of EVs with the aim of attracting investment in the domestic industry. The government will also announce incentives for electric cars on April 1, said senior cabinet minister Luhut Pandjaitan said. Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said the subsidies will cover sales of 800,000 new electric motorcycles and the conversion of 200,000 combustion engine motorcycles.”, Reuters, March 20, 2023

Japan

“Japan/eggs: mayonnaise crisis highlights food price pressures – Bird flu has led to shortages of household staple, hitting manufacturers, retailers and consumers. Japan has culled about 15mn birds, as it deals with its worst-ever outbreak of bird flu. As a result, wholesale prices of eggs in February almost doubled. The shortages are widely felt. Convenience stores including 7-Eleven have suspended the sale of some egg-related products. Ingredient prices for food companies are rising across the board. The biggest problem is with mayonnaise. Egg yolks are a key ingredient of this staple Japanese condiment. Manufacturers including the largest, Kewpie and Ajinomoto, will raise prices by up to 21 per cent from April.”, The Financial Times, March 10, 2023

New Zealand

“How franchisors supported franchisees after Gabrielle – The Anniversary Day floods and Cyclone Gabrielle turned summer from a happy and relaxed time into a period of danger, despair and stress for many people, small business owners included. One touching story came from The Coffee Club, which had a new franchisee in Napier hit by the floods just 11 days after opening. The new café was closed for 8 days, then had to start all over again. The franchisor flew two staff down to help, and also encouraged suppliers to donate free product to help the franchisees get back on their feet. The franchisee said, ‘No, there are people worse off than us,’ and made up 150 lunch bags using the donated product to give to the volunteers helping the worst affected.”, Franchise New Zealand magazine, March 20, 2023. Compliments of Simon Lord, Publisher

United Kingdom

“UK economy returns to growth in January – Month-on-month gross domestic product rose 0.3 per cent during the month, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). City economists had forecast a 0.1 per cent rise. In the three months to January, however, growth was flat and the economy remains 0.2 per cent below its pre-pandemic size, adding pressure on Jeremy Hunt to spur growth in next week’s budget. It also adds to the challenge facing the chancellor to meet his target to get government debt falling as a share of GDP. The country is the only one among its G7 peers that has not yet recovered its pre-pandemic size.”, The Times Of London, March 10, 2023

“Doctors Are Quitting Britain’s NHS for a Career in Business – Newly-qualified medics are switching to management consultancy. Unions blame poor pay and conditions in the health system. A poll published by the British Medical Association at the end of last year found that 2-in-5 junior doctors plan to leave the NHS once they’re offered another job, while 79% “often think about leaving the NHS.” Pay, deteriorating conditions and increasing workloads were the main gripes, according to the survey. Of those actively planning a new career, the most popular option was management consulting, with the pharmaceutical sector also a key destination.”, Bloomberg, March 13, 2023

United States

“U.S. business inventories fall for first time in nearly two years – Business inventories dropped 0.1%, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. That was the first decline and also the weakest reading since April 2021 and followed a 0.3% gain in December. Economists polled by Reuters had expected inventories, a key component of gross domestic product, would be unchanged. Inventories increased 11.1% on a year-on-year basis in January.”, Reuters, March 15, 2023

“U.S. small business confidence improves further in February – The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said its Small Business Optimism Index increased 0.6 point to 90.9 last month. Still, it was the 14th straight month that the index was below the 49-year average of 98. Forty-seven percent of owners reported job openings that were hard to fill, up 2 points from January, with workers scarce for both skilled and unskilled positions.”, Reuters, March 15, 2023

“How inflation has upped the price of your Big Mac: State-by-state breakdown reveals the staggering difference in cost for a McDonald’s. A Big Mac in Hawaii will set you back $5.31, which is the most expensive in America, according to data sourced by CashNetUSA. The same burger in Mississippi is available for just $3.91 and priced at $3.95 in Arkansas and $3.99 in Missouri, South Dakota and Alabama. The average cost of a Big Mac in the US is $4.40 which is among the cheapest in 76 countries.”, The Daily Mail, March 19, 2023

Brand & Franchising News

“2023 State of the (U.S.) Restaurant Industry – A new normal takes hold. Many restaurant owners have a growth mindset for 2023. Nearly 3 in 4 operators say business conditions are already close to normal—a new, more positive normal—or are well on the path, and the focus is on sustaining growth in the coming year. While the headwinds of 2022 will carry over into 2023, consumers’ desire for the restaurant experience is as strong as ever and will play a critical role in the industry’s recovery.”, National Restaurant Association, February 28, 2023

“US burger giant Carl’s Jr. instructs Christie & Co to find franchise partners for UK debut – In 2021, BigHospitality revealed that the 1,000 plus strong brand was looking to enter the UK market for first time following its success in mainland Europe. Carl’s Jr. initially looked to find a master franchisee, but it is now looking to partner with multiple ‘ambitious’ hospitality entrepreneurs/investment groups who can open at least 20 restaurants in their respective region, in the next few years, ideally with extensive restaurant experience and the financial capability.”, Bighospitality UK, March 15, 2023

“Chick-Fil-A Is Investing $1 Billion In International Markets – Chick-fil-A is booming in the United States. QSR reported that the famed maker of chicken sandwiches was the third-biggest fast food restaurant in America by sales as of 2021. Chick-fil-A’s sales are particularly striking when you consider that the chain has under 3,000 locations in the US. As CEO Andrew Cathy recently told The Wall Street Journal, the company plans to spend $1 billion to establish a presence abroad in the coming years. Chick-fil-A’s previous attempts to expand internationally have largely fallen flat.”, The Tasting Table, March 19, 2023

“Restaurant Group (UK) to close 35 underperforming outlets – The operator of the Wagamama and Frankie & Benny’s restaurant chains has announced plans to exit from about 35 uneconomic restaurants in its leisure division as it seeks to whittle down its least successful businesses. The Restaurant Group (TRG) announced the move alongside a three-year plan to reduce debt and improve margins in what was widely regarded as a riposte aimed at Oasis Management Company, an activist investor with a 6.5 per cent stake.”, The Times of London, March 8, 2023

“STRONG Pilates secures Singapore as it looks to Canada, the US – Only four months after announcing plans to enter the UK market, fitness brand STRONG Pilates has added another region to its global footprint as it looks to roll out 11 locations across Singapore over the next three years. The foray into Singapore is part of the Melbourne-based company’s bullish ambitions to launch into three new global markets this year, with plans for the remaining two – Canada and the US – currently in the works.”, Business News Australia, March 20, 2023

“Your Sweetgreen Salads May Soon Be Delivered By Flying Robots – Only 16 years after the first restaurant premiered in Washington D.C. …. Sweetgreen has become a nationwide chain, and a growing one at that. In fact, according to QSR, the restaurant chain, who reached 150 locations in 2021, announced in 2022 that it had set its sights on reaching 1,000 by 2030. This week, Zipline announced in a press release that it was collaborating with Sweetgreen and healthcare companies on a new delivery method that will bring food and prescription medicines to people’s homes in a faster and more convenient fashion — and in a more sustainable manner.”, Tasting Table, March 17, 2023

“Advent International joins list of suitors for sandwich chain Subway – Buyout firm Advent International is among a list of firms that remain in contention to buy sandwich chain Subway, Sky News reported on Monday. The firm joins rival bidders including Goldman Sachs’ asset management arm, Bain Capital, TDR Capital – the joint owner of Asda – and TPG, according to the report. Advent had previously invested in entertainment retailer HMV and currently has investments in companies such as Laird International and McAfee Corp, among others.”, Reuters, March 13, 2023

“US fast food chain Wendy’s to launch ‘hundreds’ of restaurants in Australia – Speaking exclusively to the Australian Financial Review, Wendy’s chief development officer Abigail Pringle said she was convinced there was an appetite for the chain’s signature burgers, fries and frosty desserts Down Under. ‘We believe Australia is a lucrative market for long-term growth,’ Ms Pringle told the publication.”, News.com.au, February 27, 2023. Compliments of Jason Gehrke, Franchise Advisory Centre, Brisbane

“9 Iconic (U.S.) Restaurant Chains That Are Struggling – Your favorite restaurants of the past are closing one by one. These iconic restaurant chains, among others, are struggling to regain customers against an avalanche of difficulties. The stalwart legacy restaurants of the past are in worse shape than ever before thanks to long-term financial woes, changing customer tastes, and low post-pandemic recovery efforts. Soon, some of the classic restaurants you grew up on could be a thing of the past. So if you want to relive the glory days of fast-casual dining (or grab a low-cost deli sandwich), grab a high-top table before it’s too late.”, Eat This, Not That!, March 17, 2023

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Over 4 decades William (Bill) Edwards has steered more than 40 brands successfully through the complexities of Going Global. Problem-solver, strategist, visionary and trusted Global Advisor, Bill Edwards sees what others don’t. Now he’s sharing this unmatched experience and wisdom with select senior executives traversing the complex international growth landscape.

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EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 77, Tuesday, March 7, 2023

Posted on Mar 6th, 2023 in World Economy | Comments Off

Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)

Introduction: Prices – both up and down – once again highlight our biweekly global business update newsletter. From what a Starbuck’s coffee costs around the world to higher hotel rates due to recovering travel to dropping shipping container costs to a 34% salary increase for Delta Airlines pilots. Interesting AI analyses. And the strange McDonald’s® menu items to be found around the world.

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others

“The difference between the possible and the impossible lies in a person’s determination.”, Tommy Lasorda

“When you’re good at something you’ll tell everyone. When you’re great at something, they’ll tell you.”, Walter Payton

“There is only one way to succeed in anything….and that is to give it everything.”, Vince Lombardi

Highlights in issue #77:

The Price of Starbucks Coffee, by Country

Consumer Price Inflation, by Type of Good or Service (2000-2022)

KPMG Global Study Confirms Trusting AI Remains A Major Employee Confidence Gap

How a Global Shortage Turned Into a Shipping Container Glut

Pay attention to Indonesia. It will help determine the future of Asia

World’s Largest Four-Day Work Week Trial Finds Few Are Going Back

Brand Global News Section: Appleby’s®, Chili’s®, F45®, Gelatissimo®, McDonalds® and Starbucks®

NOTE: Bolded headlines in this newsletter are live links where the article is available without a paid subscription.

Interesting Data and Studies

“The Price of Starbucks Coffee, by Country – In 1971, three former students from the University of San Francisco set up the first Starbucks at Seattle’s Pike Place Market, selling fresh roasted coffee beans, teas, and spices from around the world. This was a relatively humble beginning for what is now the largest coffeehouse chain in the world. Today, Starbucks boasts 32,000 stores across 80 countries, second only to McDonald’s in the fast-food chain business. And like McDonald’s, the price of a coffee at Starbucks varies wildly depending on the country you’re in. This map made by SavingSpot has the answer to which country has the most and least expensive Starbucks coffee…”, Visual Capitalist / SavingSpot, February 24, 2023

“Black swans, gray rhinos, and silver linings: Anticipating geopolitical risks (and openings) – The global order still reels from disruptions related to the war in Ukraine, including those in energy, food security, supply chains, and more. A central concern among global CEOs who speak with us is whether and how they will contend with additional geopolitical ruptures when they occur. The imperative to lift one’s gaze and look around the corner has become key to strategy and performance—scenario planning is squarely back.”, McKinsey & Co., February 24, 2023

“The Rise of ChatGPT and the Future of White-Collar Jobs – Since its release on Nov. 30, 2022, an artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot called ChatGPT has taken the world by storm with its ability to provide in-depth answers to a variety of questions and seemingly hold meaningful conversations. The seeming leaps and bounds that ChatGPT represents in the field of AI are refueling age-old fears about the impact of new technologies on the job market, fears that date back perhaps most memorably to the early 19th-century Luddite movement.”, RANE Stratfor Worldview, March 2, 2023

“KPMG Global Study Confirms Trusting AI Remains A Major Employee Confidence Gap – Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly used to invent new products and services, enhance productivity, improve decision making and reduce costs, including automating administrative tasks and improving cyber security. However, integrating AI into the everyday workplace still creates challenges, especially without a clear policy and communication process to ensure employees trust the technology methods, approaches, and societal reasons for deploying the new practices and solutions. AI poses unique challenges in employee minds, including the big question – Can they trust the technology?”, Forbes, February 25, 2023

Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation & Trade Issues

“How a Global Shortage Turned Into a Shipping Container Glut – Facing slack demand, low order volumes and rising materials costs, China’s globally dominant container-manufacturing industry is slashing output. Less than two years ago, authorities exhorted companies to dramatically increase production in response to logistics disruptions caused by the pandemic. The Taicang factory in eastern China’s Jiangsu province has cut more than 80% of its capacity and stopped hiring. Chinese factories build more than 96% of the world’s dry cargo containers and 100% of the world’s refrigerated containers, according to U.K. maritime consultancy Drewry.”, Caixin Global, March 2, 2023

“Supply Chains Aren’t Fixed, But They’re Getting There – Problems remain, but complaints of missing parts, delivery delays and gluts of half-finished products are becoming rarer. While companies that produce memory chips used in phones and PCs are cutting production as they grapple with a historic plunge in demand, manufacturers continue to struggle to get enough of the microprocessors that enable the injection of software into a wide range of industrial products….But complaints of missing parts, delivery delays and gluts of half-finished products are becoming rarer. Overall, running an assembly line feels less and less like a random game of whack-a-mole.”, Bloomberg, February 24, 2023

“Consumer Price Inflation, by Type of Good or Service (2000-2022) – The Consumer Price Index (CPI) provides a steady indication of how inflation is affecting the economy. This big picture number is useful for policymakers and professionals in the financial sector, but most people experience inflation at the cash register or checkout screen. Since the start of the 21st century, U.S. consumers have seen a divergence of price movements across various categories. Nowhere is this better illustrated than on this chart concept thought up by AEI’s Mark J. Perry. It’s sometimes referred to as the “chart of the century” because it provides such a clear and impactful jump-off point to discuss a number of economic forces.: Visual Capitalist, February 22, 2023

“Global economy: will higher wages prolong inflation? Price growth remains stubbornly high and central bankers worry that pay settlements will keep it that way. Whether the world’s workers can press home their demands for better pay is the single biggest question facing central bankers around the world this year as they fight to curb the rates at which prices are rising. ‘Even after energy and pandemic factors fade . . . wage inflation will be a primary driver of price inflation over the next several years,’ Philip Lane, chief economist at the European Central Bank, warned in November.”, The Financial Times, February 28, 2023

Global & Regional Travel Updates

“Travel demand fuels a boom in Asia Pacific — in hotel rates. Finding a great hotel deal may be harder than ever before. Finding a great hotel deal may be harder than ever before. Hotel rates are at an “all-time high,” Alan Watts, Hilton’s Asia-Pacific president, told “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday. Rates are being fueled by travel demand that is like “a feast … to offset the famine,” he said, referencing the pandemic. According to earnings reports, Hilton’s average daily rates increased by 8% in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared with the same period in 2019. Similarly, Marriott and IHG hiked prices by 13%, while Hyatt had a 14% daily rate increase.”, CNBC, March 5, 2023

“Delta Pilots Ratify Contract With Massive 34% Salary Hike – Roughly 78% of Delta’s 15,000 pilots, represented by the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA), voted to ratify the new contract, which includes over $7 billion in cumulative increases through December 2026. Delta’s pilots get an immediate raise of at least 18%, with another 5% after one year, 4% after two years and 4% after three years, according to a contract seen by Forbes.”, Forbes, March 1, 2023

“Qantas to Hire 8,500 Workers Over Decade to Reverse Covid Cuts – Roles include pilots, engineers and cabin crew, airline says Expansion underscores aviation’s post-Covid growth trajectory. With potentially more than 300 new aircraft arriving in the next 10 years, Qantas also plans to open an engineering academy to help maintain the fleet, it said Friday.”, Bloomberg, March 2, 2023

Country & Regional Updates

Australia

“Australia’s economy grows 0.5% in December quarter powered by household and government spending – The country’s GDP grew by 2.7% through the year, marking the fifth consecutive quarterly rise in GDP. Consumer spending and government expenditure were the driving forces behind the 0.4% increase in overall consumption, with the retail, hospitality and transportation industries seeing the most significant gains. Meanwhile, the export sector experienced 1.1% growth, mainly thanks to a surge in demand for travel services and the continued interest from foreign markets in Australia’s coal and mineral ores.”, Proactive, March 2, 2023

Canada

“Bank of Canada expected to hold rates steady in face of conflicting economic signals – After eight consecutive rate increases, central bank officials believe they’ve done enough to get inflation back under control. The pace of consumer price growth remains well above the bank’s target. But there are increasing, if conflicted, signs that higher borrowing costs are having their intended effect: slowing the economy and weighing on price growth. In January, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem announced a “conditional pause” to further rate hikes, teeing up the March 8 rate decision as a turning point for monetary policy.”, The Globe & Mail, March 5, 2023

China

“Here’s how much economists expect China s GDP to grow this year – The Chinese government is widely expected to announce on Sunday a GDP growth target of around or above 5% for the year. The average estimate among economists is slightly higher, at 5.21%, according to CNBC analysis. China’s latest factory data marked the highest reading in nearly eleven years, indicating further recovery ahead.”, CNBC, March 1, 2023. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

“Private Sector’s Shrinking Share of China’s Top Stocks – The share of private enterprises in the total market capitalization of China’s top 100 listed firms has suffered an unbroken decline since peaking in mid-2021, according to new research by U.S. think tank the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE). As of the end of 2022, companies less than 10% state-owned comprised 42.8% of the total market cap of China’s top 100 listed firms, down 1.7 percentage points in six months, data compiled by PIIE researchers Tianlei Huang and Nicolas Véron show.”, Caixin Global, February 22, 2023

Egypt

“Dollar Woes, Inflation Batter Egyptian Firms’ Hopes for 2023 – Activity in Egypt’s non-oil economy contracted for a 27th month, with businesses seeing little prospect that high inflation and foreign-currency shortages will ease this year, a survey showed. The Purchasing Managers’ Index compiled by S&P Global, which measures the performance of the private sector, rose to 46.9 in February from 45.5 the month before, yet remained well below the 50 mark that separates growth from decline.”, Bloomberg, March 5, 2023

Eurozone & European Union Countries

“Europe’s Top Economies Lag Behind on Pandemic Export Rebound – Cross-border trade in all European Union countries is now above pre-pandemic levels. Yet a closer look reveals that Germany’s exports in 2022 were only 18% above those in 2019 and France trailed even more with a mere 15%. That compares with a euro-area average of 30%. Within the 20-member currency bloc, Slovenia, Latvia and Greece lead the export recovery, all showing increases higher than 60% versus the pre-pandemic period.”, Bloomberg, February 23, 2023

Indonesia

“Pay attention to Indonesia. It will help determine the future of Asia – It’s hard to think of another country as big and important as Indonesia that is so completely ignored by the American public. With a population of 274 million, it is the fourth-largest country in the world, the third-most populous democracy, and the most populous Muslim-majority country. It is the world’s largest producer of nickel and could become the second-largest producer of cobalt. It dominates one of the world’s most strategically important waterways — the Straits of Malacca, linking the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Most of China’s energy supplies pass through the Straits.”, Washington Post, February 20, 2023

“Nickel Shows Indonesia How to Escape the Middle Income Trap – The success of its strategy to boost investment in smelting has encouraged the government to expand the idea to other industries. The goal is to double per-capita GDP to $10,000 by 2045, which would bring Indonesia close to the World Bank’s high-income threshold. At the same time, the shift would create new centers of growth outside Java, its richest and most populated island.”, Bloomberg, February 24, 2023

Peru

“Country Announces Public-Private Partnerships to Boost Economic Activity – The Peruvian minister of production announced the launch of more than 30 public-private partnerships, collectively worth more than $9 billion, in a bid to boost the economy….The projects are in a variety of sectors including road maintenance, energy and sanitation. The first two months of 2023 saw economically disruptive protests as Peruvians demanded early elections and the release of former left-wing President Pedro Castillo, who was impeached and detained on Dec. 7, 2022, following a coup attempt. Peru was the fastest growing economy in South America over the past decade, with an annual average of 5.9% gross domestic product growth.”, RANE Stratfor Worldview, March 1, 2023

Russia

“Over 1,000 Companies Have Curtailed Operations in Russia—But Some Remain – Since the invasion of Ukraine began, we have been tracking the responses of well over 1,200 companies, and counting. Originally a simple “withdraw” vs. “remain” list, our list of companies now consists of five categories—graded on a school-style letter grade scale of A-F for the completeness of withdrawal. The list below is updated continuously by Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and his team of experts, research fellows, and students at the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute to reflect new announcements from companies in as close to real time as possible.”, Yale School of Management, March 2, 2023

Spain

“Spain’s February jobless rises 0.1% from January to 2.91 million – The number of people registering as jobless in Spain rose by 0.1% in February from a month earlier, or by 2,618 people, leaving a total of 2.91 million people out of work, data from the Labour Ministry showed on Thursday. The number of unemployed people was the lowest registered in a month of February since 2008, the ministry said, adding that the data reflected ‘a trend of stability in the labour market’. Meanwhile, consumer prices in Spain rose 6.1% year-on-year in February – a faster pace than the 5.9% during the 12 months to January – preliminary data from the National Statistics Institute (INE) showed on Tuesday.”, Reuters, March 2, 2023

Thailand

“Thai economy seen growing 3% to 4% this year, inflation to fall – Thailand’s economy is seen growing between 3%-4% this year as it follows a sustained recovery path despite a global slowdown, with tourism and private consumption key drivers, the central bank said on Tuesday. Headline inflation, above target at 5.02% in January, should return to within the targeted 1%-3% in the second half of 2023, the Bank of Thailand said, citing a speech on Monday by its governor, Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput.”, Reuters, February 28, 2023

United Kingdom

“World’s Largest Four-Day Work Week Trial Finds Few Are Going Back – And about one in six employees in the study said no amount of money would convince them to return to five days a week. The study involved 61 organizations and about 2,900 workers who voluntarily adopted truncated work weeks from June to December 2022. Only three organizations decided to pause the experiment, and two are still considering shorter hours, data released Tuesday showed. The rest were convinced by revenue gains, drops in turnover and lower levels of worker burnout that four is the new five when it comes to work days.”, Bloomberg, February 20, 2023

“HSBC to halve space for head office – HSBC told staff that it may yet remain at its tower in Canary Wharf, with renovations. HSBC moved into the tower, owned by Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund, in 2002. Its lease expires in early 2027. HSBC’s mooted departure from Canary Wharf echoes law firm Clifford Chance, which is ditching 700,000 sq ft of space in a Canary Wharf tower for a City office less than half the size. The enduring popularity of remote working is forcing Canary Wharf Group, the site’s owner, to offset the fall in office workers by attracting more families and tourists. Chief executive Shobi Khan is seeking to diversify away from banks and law firms, by building lab space to attract companies in life sciences.”, The Times of London, February 21, 2023

United States

“Brisk Sales Are Powering Restaurant Stocks – High inflation hasn’t prevented chains from thriving. The restaurant industry usually fares well when labor and food costs rise gradually, and attracting customers with lower prices becomes easier. Even though inflation has remained stubbornly high of late, that hasn’t prevented restaurant companies—and their stocks—from thriving. Shares of restaurant chains have been among this year’s stronger performers, after lagging behind in early 2022. Restaurants haven’t been immune to rising labor and food costs, but prices at grocery stores have actually risen more quickly than on restaurant menus over the past year, driving more traffic to restaurants.”, The Wall Street Journal, March 1, 2023

“Bars, Hotels and Restaurants Become the Economy’s Fastest-Growing Employers – Hospitality companies revive their hiring after pandemic cuts, offsetting slower growth in tech jobs. The leisure-and-hospitality industry is rebuilding its workforce after cutting back during the pandemic’s early days. In contrast, companies focused on providing business and tech-related services have slowed their growth in recent months. Because the hospitality industry includes a larger number of private-sector jobs than the tech and information sectors, the shift in hiring patterns has helped keep the U.S. unemployment rate at a 53-year low and the overall job market tight.”, The Wall Street Journal, March 5, 2023

Brand & Franchising News

“Applebee’s Is Closing Even More Locations Nationwide – Applebee’s parent company Dine Brands anticipates that the chain will have between 10 and 20 fewer restaurants in its roster when 2023 comes to a close, Restaurant Business Magazine reported. This would be an even larger decrease in store count for Applebee’s than in 2022, when it ended the year with nine fewer stores after closing 13 and opening four new locations.”, Eat This, Not That!, March 3, 2023

“How Chili’s Is Prepping for Tough Times, Starting With the Fries – Rising costs and a shortage of workers are pushing the Southwest-style restaurant chain to do more with less. When Kevin Hochman became CEO last June of the company that owns Chili’s Bar & Grill, amid a labor shortage and escalating costs, he started looking for bottlenecks in the kitchen. When he started the new job last year, inflation was spiking, and the economy was blinking early warnings of a slowdown. In the months since, he has trimmed menu offerings, raised prices and streamlined kitchen procedures.”, The Wall Street Journal, March 4, 2023

“Take a Crack at These Breakfast Franchise Opportunities – Breakfast is a multibillion-dollar opportunity for entrepreneurs. Gen-Zers – adults born between 1993 and 2003 – consistently buy breakfast through third-party delivery services. In fact, two-thirds of Gen-Zers buy breakfast outside the home at least once a week, according to food manufacturer J.M. Smucker Co. But is owning a breakfast franchise a wise investment? If the success of American icons like Denny’s and IHOP are any indication, breakfast franchises are a hit in any community. Here are 13 breakfast franchise opportunities to consider in 2023.”, FranchiseWire, February 27, 2023

“Multiple F45 Training gyms collapse, equipment up for sale on Facebook Marketplace – A popular Aussie gym franchise has suffered an epic fall from grace with staff laid off, mass resignations from board members and its share price staying stubbornly low. And now it’s emerged that a number of stores have gone into liquidation in the past several months while gym equipment is being sold incredibly cheaply online in a sign of the business struggling to stay afloat. F45 Training – which known for its functional high intensity interval training (HIIT) classes that takes place in 45 minutes – was at first an Australian success story after hitting the New York Stock Exchange in 2021 and raking in $500 million on the first day.”, News.com.au, February 22. 2023. Compliments of Jason Gerhrke, Managing Director, Franchise Advisory Centre, Brisbane

“Gelatissimo opens stores in Thailand, Singapore, Hawaii – Australian gelato chain Gelatissimo has opened five new stores – including in Thailand and Singapore – taking its international store network to 70. One store has opened in Sunny Laguna in Phuket, Thailand, another in Hawaii’s Royal Hawaiian Center at Waikiki and a third at Jewel Changi Airport in Singapore. In Australia, the company opened stores in Rhodes, NSW, and Highpoint, Victoria.”, Inside Retail, February 22, 2023

“Strange McDonald’s menu items around the world – The fast-food place has created menu items that fall in line with a foreign country’s culture. McDonald’s doesn’t operate like a regular fast-food corporation. With over 38,000 locations in over 100 countries, the chain prides itself on two things — uniformity and cultural awareness. The latter is evident in its menus in other countries, whether it’s replacing the famous Big Mac with a pork burger in Thailand or offering a larger variety of vegetarian options in India. Here is a look at unique menu items specific to other countries.”, Deseret News, February 18, 2023

“Starbuck’s China: Big opportunities inject shot of caffeine into smaller cities – Popular chains bank on lower costs, ties with customers for rapid expansion. Starbucks entered the Chinese market 24 years ago and, beginning in January, consumers in the downtown area of Suihua, Heilongjiang province, can also enjoy Starbucks beverages as the coffee chain has opened its first store in the smaller city. The move into lower-tier Chinese cities signals the rapid expansion from top on-premise coffee chain players to grab more consumers at better costs, said an industry expert.}, China Daily, February 21, 2023. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

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For a free 30 minute consultation on how to take your business global successfully, contact Bill Edwards at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com or +1 949 224 3896.

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