Global Business Development

Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 148, Tuesday, November 25, 2025

Posted on Nov 24th, 2025 in Asia Pacific, Europe, India, Miscellaneous, Predictions and Trends, Professional Development, World Culture, World Economy | 0 comments

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“We are entering an age of protracted geopolitical competition that will reshape the world economy.”

Welcome to the 148th Edition of the Global Business Update – Global business conditions are increasingly shaped by powerful and sometimes conflicting forces—from accelerating AI investment to persistent economic uncertainty and shifting trade dynamics.

AI continues its breakneck expansion. Major tech companies report record capital spending, driving unprecedented demand for the physical backbone of data centers—chips, servers, transformers, and energy infrastructure.

Macroeconomic stresses remain significant. Global public debt has climbed to $102 trillion, with developing nations’ debt burdens rising twice as fast as those of advanced economies. Meanwhile, the booming digital economy is becoming increasingly concentrated among a handful of technologically dominant countries, leaving many others confined to the role of data suppliers rather than value creators.

Trade and tariff volatility continue to influence global supply chains, prices, and investment decisions. With U.S. tariff policy in flux and key court decisions underway, businesses face ongoing uncertainty.

Economic performance varies widely. Europe shows modest resilience, the U.K. slows following supply disruptions, Mexico risks recession, and China sees its strongest foreign equity inflows in four years. Additional trends—from Bolivia’s return to credit markets to demographic shifts in New Zealand’s business-buying landscape—underscore the rapid changes underway.

In global franchise sector news, analysts expect 2026 to bring strong M&A and IPO activity in the restaurant sector, with high-performing concepts seeking capital and distressed brands looking for turnaround investment. Emerging restaurant chains are also evaluating when they are ready to expand internationally. Europe and the U.K. remain top destinations for U.S. franchisors, who must adapt to shifting labor markets, the gig economy, and evolving real estate conditions.

Krispy Kreme has entered Spain and plans additional locations across Brazil and Uzbekistan, while Anytime Fitness has opened its first club in Dubai, extending its footprint to 49 countries. Captain D’s has debuted in the U.K., and Great American Cookies and Marble Slab Creamery will launch 10 co-branded stores in Iraq. Meanwhile, chicken chains—especially KFC—see global demand rising sharply, fueled by consumer preference and ease of cross-border adoption.

This edition’s book review highlights a CEO for All Seasons by Carolyn Dewar, Scott Keller, Vikram Malhotraand Kurt Strovink is one of the most relevant leadership books of 2025, offering a fresh and timely look at what it means to lead in an era defined by volatility, artificial intelligence, geopolitical uncertainty, and shifting workforce expectations. Rather than presenting a one-size-fits-all leadership formula, the book argues that today’s most effective executives are “seasonal CEOs”—leaders who can shift styles, mindsets, and strategies depending on market conditions, cultural context, and organizational stage.

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To receive our biweekly newsletter by email every other Tuesday, click here https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. We do not get involved with or report on politics!

PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.

Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896

Link to our current and past newsletters: https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“We are entering an age of protracted geopolitical competition that will reshape the world economy.”, Dr. Hal Brands, Bloomberg Opinion

“Leadership is the capacity to translate vision into reality.” — Warren Bennis

“A thankful heart is not only the greatest virtue, but the parent of all other virtues.”, Marcus Tullius Cicero. This week is Thanksgiving here in the USA

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Highlights in issue #148:

Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes, Tariffs & Trade Issues

US Consumer Sentiment Nears Record Low

Euro Zone Set for Moderate Growth After Resilience in 2025

A World of Debt – REPORT 2025

Digital economy: A new frontier for trade, sustainability and inclusion

Franchise Global News Section: Anytime Fitness®, Captain D’s®, Great American Cookies®, Krispy Kreme®, KFC®, Luckin Coffee® and Marble Slab®

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“When AI Hype Meets AI Reality – Record capital expenditures and data-center planning run up against the ground truths of physical infrastructure. The rate at which tech companies and startups are investing in AI shows no signs of slowing. In their latest financial reports, all of the big spenders revealed that their current investments had grown significantly, and projected that this trend would continue. All this investment has translated into record spending on the stuff that goes into data centers—aka “AI supercomputers”—all those chips, servers, HVAC systems, transformers, gas turbines, power lines and power plants.”, The Wall Street Journal, November 14, 2025

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“Vistage Digital Engagement – A predictor of productivity – Generative artificial intelligence (Gen Al) is accelerating disruption at an unprecedented pace. Its rapid evolution and transformative capabilities are redefining the way businesses operate, innovate, and compete. While we are only beginning to grasp the full scope of its potential, Gen Al is already delivering immediate and profound gains in productivity – ushering in a new era of possibility for leaders ready to embrace it. Despite its technological wonderment, humans will determine the speed of Gen Al’s impact and adoption. Today’s digitally engaged workers will lead the charge, pushing the organization into the future.”, Vistage, November 2025

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“A World of Debt – REPORT 2025 – Public debt can be vital for development. Governments use it to finance expenditures, protect and invest in their people and pave the way to a better future. However, when public debt grows excessively or its costs outweigh its benefits, it becomes a heavy burden. This is precisely what is happening across the developing world today. Global public debt reached a record high of $102 trillion in 2024. Although public debt in developing countries accounted for less than one third of the total – $31 trillion – it has grown twice as fast as in developed economies since 2010.”, UN Trade & Development, 4^th Quarter 2025

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“Digital economy: A new frontier for trade, sustainability and inclusion – The digital economy marks the newest chapter in the long-running story of trade, driven in part by technological advances like artificial intelligence (AI) – a market projected to reach $5 trillion by 2033. The digital economy is booming but highly concentrated in a handful of countries, leaving the rest of the world, including many least developed countries, often relegated to the role of mere data providers.”, UN Trade & Development, September 30, 2025

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes, Tariffs & Trade Issues

“We Analyzed 5,000 Calls to Find Out What CEOs Really Think About Tariffs – Trump’s trade war is a pain, but less so than many executives expected. Business leaders are sounding less gloomy about tariffs, which are coming up less often in earnings calls. Businesses are mitigating tariff costs by securing exemptions, raising prices, cutting spending and rearranging supply chains. Companies have passed about two-thirds of tariff costs to customers, a decrease from nearly 100% in Trump’s first term.”, The Wall Street Journal, November 24, 2025

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“Cocoa Extends Slump to 21-Month Low on Robust Ivorian Supplies – Prices dropped as much as 2.7% on Monday, and are down about 60% from a record high set in December on forecasts for a bigger global surplus driven by better production and weakening demand. Traders are keeping a close eye on supplies from West Africa as farms continue to recover from poor harvests that caused prices to soar to an all-time high.”, Bloomberg, November 24, 2025

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“Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes, Tariffs & Trade Issues – Here’s what’s going on with Trump’s tariffs, prices and the Supreme Court. This is everything you need to know about where tariffs stand, and where they’re going. The levies that importers pay to bring in specific products fromforeign countries have evolved so many times that American shoppers could be forgiven for not knowing what is on, what is off, and what is on the table. Add in a pair of Supreme Court cases, tumultuous trade negotiations with longtime allies and national security concerns and it’s enough to make anyone need a field guide. This is what to know about tariffs currently in place, those threatened by court cases and how consumers are being hit.”, The Washington Post, November 16, 2025

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“Navigating Non-Tariff Barriers and Global Trade Challenges – The Global Chamber® Export-Import Forum, moderated by Anita Rodal, featured Bill Edwards, CEO and Global Trade Advisor at Edwards Global Services (Your newsletter Editor!!!), in a dynamic and highly informative discussion on international trade challenges and non-tariff barriers (NTBs) that impact businesses especially small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Bill emphasized that while tariffs are often discussed in trade policy, non-tariff barriers — including certification requirements, labeling regulations, customs procedures, and shifting political environments — often create even greater obstacles for small exporters. ‘About half of all non-tariff barriers serve legitimate public purposes,’ Bill explained, ‘But the other half can act as discriminatory trade barriers — depending on market.’”, Global Chamber, October 23^rd. Please go to this link for the YouTube webinar:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7_pH5kSF6Q

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Global & Regional Travel News

“US tourism expected to score big with FIFA World Cup – International tourism to the U.S. could get a much-needed boost from the 2026 FIFA World Cup after a sluggish 2025, when visitors stayed away amid unease over President Donald Trump’s trade policies and concerns about tougher border scrutiny. Foreign visitation to the U.S. was down 4% year to date through July, according to visa data from the National Travel and Tourism Office. Travel data company Tourism Economics projects a full-year decline of about 6.3% in 2025. The World Cup, which will take place from June 11 to July 19, could account for roughly one in three additional foreign visitors to the U.S. in 2026, Tourism Economics estimates.”, Reuters, November 19, 2025

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‘World’s Safest Airline’: Air New Zealand Wins Big At World Travel Awards – Air New Zealand is flying high after collecting several industry awards these past few weeks, including the world’s safest airline, best airline in the South Pacific, and innovation of the year, and Australia’s most trusted airline. The airline has been acknowledged not only for its innovative designs but also for its continued commitment to sustainability. Air NZ was named by the World Travel Awards 2025 as Oceania’s leading airline, beating other carriers such as Fiji Airways and Qantas.”, Simply Flying, November 21, 2025

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Book Review

A CEO for All Seasons by Carolyn Dewar, Scott Keller, Vikram Malhotra and Kurt Strovink is one of the most relevant leadership books of 2025, offering a fresh and timely look at what it means to lead in an era defined by volatility, artificial intelligence, geopolitical uncertainty, and shifting workforce expectations. Rather than presenting a one-size-fits-all leadership formula, the book argues that today’s most effective executives are “seasonal CEOs”—leaders who can shift styles, mindsets, and strategies depending on market conditions, cultural context, and organizational stage.

The author blends real-world case studies, global business examples, and insights from executives across multiple continents. What stands out most is the book’s emphasis on adaptability—not as a buzzword, but as a disciplined practice. The writing is clear, contemporary, and highly actionable for CEOs, founders, and senior executives navigating global growth.

Top 5 Takeaways for Global Businesspeople

1. Leadership must be climate-adaptive, not personality-fixed. Great CEOs today flex between being a visionary, operator, crisis manager, diplomat, or culture-builder depending on what the moment requires.

2. Global markets require cultural seasonality. What motivates teams in Los Angeles may not work in Dubai, Tokyo, or São Paulo. Leaders must shift communication, incentives, and decision-making norms to match local cultures.

3. AI fluency is no longer optional. The book makes a compelling case that CEOs who don’t embrace AI as a co-executive—not just a tool—will fall behind. Decision cycles must be faster, data-driven, and augmented by automation.

4. Trust is the new global currency. In fragmented geopolitical environments, stakeholders choose brands—and partners—they trust. Transparency and consistency matter more than ever.

5. Resilience must be built, not assumed. The strongest organizations develop systems for resilience: diversified supply chains, cross-trained teams, scenario-planning, and disciplined cash management.

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Country & Regional Updates

Bolivia

“Bolivia Charts Return to International Credit Market by 2027 – Bolivia’s new government expects to secure up to $5 billion in multilateral loans next year and return to international credit markets in late 2026 or early 2027, Finance Minister José Gabriel Espinoza said. Around half of the loans under discussion are aimed at boosting private-sector transport, energy and infrastructure projects, Espinoza said. The Paz administration plans to cut costly fuel subsidies and transfer fuel distribution to the private sector to make it more efficient, while keeping state-owned YPFB in charge of supplying remote places.”, Bloomberg, November 20, 2025

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China

“Foreign investors return to China’s stock market – DeepSeek AI breakthrough spurs biggest overseas inflows in four years. Foreign purchases of Chinese equities have hit their highest level in four years, in a sign global investors are reassessing a market that until recently was considered “uninvestable”. Offshore inflows into China stocks from January to October this year totalled $50.6bn, up from $11.4bn in 2024….”, The Financial Times, November 15, 2025

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Eurozone Countries

“Euro Zone Set for Moderate Growth After Resilience in 2025 – The European Commission says the euro-area economy will maintain its moderate expansion after weathering Donald Trump’s tariff turmoil better than expected. Output will rise, with the commission predicting an upgrade for this year compared with May’s prediction, and a small downgrade for 2026, and inflation is seen at 2.1% in 2025. The commission sees recent outperformance driven by a pre-tariff surge in exports and investments, and says higher spending by governments, private consumption and a tight labor market should underpin expansion.”, Bloomberg, November 17, 2025

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Mexico

“Mexico Economy Dipped Last Quarter, Fueling Recession Fears – Mexico’s economy shrunk in the third quarter due in large part to trade uncertainty stoked by US President Donald Trump. Gross domestic product fell 0.3% in the July-to-September period compared to the prior three months, and declined 0.1% from a year ago. If Mexico’s economy were to suffer a contraction in the fourth quarter, it would tip into a technical recession, according to analysts. The national statistics institute also revised second-quarter figures downward, saying the economy fell 0.1% versus the same period the previous year, compared to the initial report of no change.”, Bloomberg, November 21, 2025

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New Zealand

“New Trends Emerging in New Zealand Business Sales Market – Younger, more diverse buyers are increasingly entering the market as older owners step aside. New research from The ABC Business September 2025 Quarterly Market Intelligence Report shows a shift in who is buying and selling businesses in New Zealand. The report reveals that 65% of business sellers are now over 46, while more than half of buyers are younger than that. Many sellers are leaving their businesses for retirement or lifestyle changes, creating opportunities for a new generation of entrepreneurs to take the reins.

Diversity among buyers is also on the rise. While more than 70% of sellers identify as NZ European, over 40% of buyers come from Indian, Chinese, or other non-European backgrounds. Migration trends are playing a role, with many newcomers seeing small business ownership as a pathway to stability and financial growth.”, Franchise New Zealand magazine, November 20, 2025

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United Kingdom

“UK growth slows after big fall in car production – Growth in the UK economy slowed to 0.1% in the July-to-September period, official figures show, as car production slumped. The Office for National Statistics said there had been a “marked” fall in car production in September as a result of the cyber-attack on Jaguar Land Rover. But even when this is taken out, other sectors of the economy showed weak growth.”, BBC, November 13, 2025

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United States

“US Economy 2026 Outlook From Economists – Modest growth with easing inflation and policy shifts. Economists expect the U.S. economy to navigate 2026 with modest growth, cooling but still above-target inflation, and a gradual easing of interest rates. Baseline expectations center on real GDP growth in the 1.7% to 1.9% range in 2026 (with some outlooks nearer 2.0%), inflation easing toward roughly 2.5% to 3.0%, and a Federal funds rate drifting to around 3.25% to 3.5% by mid-2026. The labor market is set to cool, with unemployment edging toward roughly 4.4% or higher, consumer spending slowing before re-accelerating late in the year, tariffs sustaining price pressures and squeezing margins, AI investment providing a supportive tailwind, and commercial real estate fundamentals gradually improving.”, Grey Journal, November 12, 2025

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“US Consumer Sentiment Nears Record Low – As far as Americans are concerned, the future of their wallets is looking glum. With inflation having hit 3% and unemployment rising to 4.4%, the third part of the troubled trifecta, US consumer sentiment, has fallen to one of the lowest levels on record. The final November sentiment index dropped to 51 from 53.6 in October, according to the University of Michigan. Views of personal finances were the dimmest since 2009. Data from the survey along with studies by private companies have become more useful of late, as federal agencies once renown for their “gold standard” in economic data have become unreliable.”, Bloomberg, November 21, 2025

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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification

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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News

“Will restaurants see more M&A and IPO activity next year? Next year may be marked by a high volume of deals for both high-performing growth concepts and distressed assets, as challenger brands look for capital and ailing systems seek turnarounds. Despite consumer pullback and macroeconomic uncertainty, 2025 turned out to be a major year for restaurant deal activity. Looking ahead to 2026, experts at the Restaurant Finance and Development Conference say the pace of deals might continue as high-performing brands seek fresh capital, underperformers look for turnaround sponsors and private equity eyes franchisees.”, Restaurant Dive, November 14, 2025

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“Is Your Emerging Restaurant Concept Ready to Go Global? Some brands spend decades perfecting their model before opening in a new country. Others find themselves faced with the question much sooner: Are we ready to go global? There’s no single formula for the right time. For some, it’s 30 years in. For others, it’s five. The better question is what signals tell you your brand is mature enough to thrive abroad. Here’s what every emerging restaurant brand should consider before taking the leap.”, Franchising.com, November 14, 2025. This article is authored by Carolyne Canady, the chief development officer with Dave’s Hot Chicken.

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“Breaking Out of the States: Expanding a Franchise into the U.K. and Europe – For decades, the United States has been the birthplace of some of the world’s most recognizable franchises. While America is fertile ground for franchising success, ambitious brands often face a crucial next step: international expansion. Among the most attractive destinations? The United Kingdom and Europe. For many franchises, taking the leap across the pond to establish a presence in the U.K. and Europe has been a strategic move driven by careful research, market evaluation, and an understanding of the growing gig economy and real estate landscape. Here are some of the top lessons franchises need to know before expanding into the U.K. and Europe.”, Franchising.com, November 14, 2025. This article is authored by Brian Kelley, the CEO and President of Phenix Salon Suites.

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“Luckin Coffee responds to questions about relisting on the US main board – On November 12, according to multiple media reports, Luckin Coffee CEO Guo Jinyi stated at an event in Xiamen that Luckin is actively promoting its relisting on the US main board. Once the listing is completed, it will help make Xiamen a more attractive global business and investment destination. In response, Luckin Coffee officially stated that it will continue to monitor the US capital market, but the company currently has no definite timetable for returning to the main board listing. Luckin Coffee’s primary task at this stage remains implementing its business strategy and focusing on development.”, Security Times Website (China), November 13, 2025. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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“Krispy Kreme® Continues Global Expansion – Iconic doughnut brand opens first shop in Spain with more locations planned through a minority interest joint venture with Glaseados Originales S.L. International expansion continues with new shops in Brazil and first location in Uzbekistan expected to open before the end of 2025.”, Business Wire, October 15, 2025

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“Purpose Brands Announces Grand Opening of First Anytime Fitness Club in Dubai – Coinciding with Dubai Fitness Challenge Wellness Campaign. With the addition of the UAE, Anytime Fitness clubs now operate in 49 countries and territories around the world, with access to all locations a key benefit for the 5 million Anytime Fitness members worldwide. The UAE also marks expansion of the brand across the Middle East, joining Qatar and Kuwait, with additional countries to be announced.”, PR Newswire, October 23, 2025

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“Captain D’s Splashes Down in the UK in October – Iconic American seafood brand debuts refreshed design and UK-tailored menu at Westwood Cross Shopping Centre. The launch marks the start of an exciting new chapter for Captain D’s as the brand brings its refreshed restaurant design, UK-tailored menu, and international expansion strategy to life. This opening is part of a 20-unit master franchise agreement with local partner CD’s Holdings.”, Franchising.com, October 10, 2025

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“Great American Cookies and Marble Slab Creamery Build on Global Growth with Development Deal in Iraq – FAT (Fresh. Authentic. Tasty.) Brands Inc., parent company of Great American Cookies, Marble Slab Creamery, and 16 other restaurant concepts, has announced a new development deal to open 10 co-branded Great American Cookies and Marble Slab Creamery stores across Iraq over the next five years in partnership with Eric Wilson, a 27-year U.S. military veteran who served in Iraq.”, FAT Brands, October 22, 2025

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“KFC is not afraid of growing chicken competition – Company executives believe that increasing competition from other chicken chains can keep them on their toes internationally and help them get better back home in the U.S. More than any other protein, chicken is soaring in restaurants. Burger brands are adding chicken to their menus. New concepts are emerging and exploding all the time. Internationally, U.S. chicken chains are increasingly eyeing international expansion. Chicken sales worldwide grew 9% in 2024, according to Technomic, compared with 1.4% for burgers. Religious groups generally do not have objections to chicken, which makes it a relatively easy cuisine to expand in other markets.”, Restaurant Business, November 19, 2025

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To receive our biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!

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William “Bill” Edwards: CEO & Global Trade Advisor “Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global”. With five decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service global management consultant since 2001 helping 40+ franchisors expand into new countries. Bill knows how to turn the challenges in taking a brand global into opportunities.

For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries successfully. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896

www.edwardsglobal.com

And download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business, used by many companies for strategic planning, at this link:

Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking

Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 147, Tuesday, November 11, 2025

Posted on Nov 10th, 2025 in Asia Pacific, Europe, India, Miscellaneous, Predictions and Trends, Professional Development, World Culture, World Economy | Comments Off

“If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go together.”

Welcome to the 147th Edition of the Global Business Update – Global economic indicators reveal resilience amid uneven regional recovery. The IMF projects roughly 3 percent growth for 2025-26, with the U.S. constrained by a government shutdown, China’s slowdown deepening, and Europe wrestling with fiscal and political instability.

Global debt continues to climb, reaching 94.7 percent of GDP, while McKinsey reports a rebound in worldwide economic profits—driven by technology, energy, and materials sectors. AI adoption remains high, though many firms are still early in scaling enterprise-wide value.

In energy, OPEC+ faces conflicting pressures as surplus risks meet renewed sanctions on Russia; meanwhile, tanker earnings and shipping activity surge. Rystad Energy forecasts a 30 percent rise in global power demand by 2035. Visual Capitalist notes that Greece, China, and Japan now control 40 percent of global shipping capacity.

In trade and geopolitics, your Editor, EGS CEO Bill Edwards, highlighted non-tariff barriers as a growing challenge for SMEs in a webinar at the Global Chamber Export-Import Forum.

Franchise section headlines include the $620 million sale of Denny’s to private equity, Brinker’s strong Chili’s results, Yum China’s record expansion, Starbucks’ China joint venture with Boyu Capital and Burger King China also selling part of its business.

Overall, 2025 continues to be defined by moderate economic optimism, strong energy logistics, accelerating AI transformation, and renewed global franchise activity—tempered by political volatility and consumer caution.

This edition’s book review highlights The Art of Less – How to Focus on What Really Matters at Work by Mats Alvesson and André Spicer argue that many organizations and professionals are burdened by excess — too many meetings, overlapping initiatives, training programs, targets, rules and bureaucratic structures that distract from core work and value creation. They label this burden “organizational sludge” — the accumulation of practices, procedures and policies that consume time and energy yet deliver little meaning or impact.

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To receive our biweekly newsletter by email every other Tuesday, click here https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Link to our current and past newsletters: https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go together.”, African Proverb

“Successful entrepreneurs are givers and not takers of positive energy.” , Anonymous

“You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” – Wayne Gretzky

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Highlights in issue #147:

Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, September 2025

The state of AI in 2025: Agents, innovation, and transformation

Government Debt to GDP by Country in 2025

Navigating Non-Tariff Barriers and Global Trade Challenges

US Consumer Sentiment Is at Near-Record Lows

World Power Demand to Rise Almost a Third by 2035

Franchise Global News Section: Burger King®, Chili’s®, Club Pilates®, Denny’s®, Pizza Hut®, Starbucks®, Wendy’s® and YUM China

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, September 2025 – The global economy is showing resilience, although growth remains uneven across regions. IMF projections indicate global growth of around 3% for 2025 and 2026, but underlying data is mixed. Currently, the United States faces a government shutdown, China’s momentum continues to slow, and Europe is contending with persistent political and fiscal turbulence. Central banks are cautiously pivoting toward easing, yet uncertainty surrounding trade dynamics, tariff policies, and the trajectory of AI markets continues to cloud the outlook.”, McKinsey & Co., October 31, 2025

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“Government Debt to GDP by Country in 2025 – The global debt-to-GDP ratio rose 2.3 percentage points to 94.7% in 2025, but is still below the pandemic-era peak of 98.7% in 2020. Japan remains the world’s most indebted nation at 230% of GDP, followed by Sudan (222%) and Singapore (176%). Global debt levels continue to rise, with 2025 marking another year of fiscal strain across both advanced and developing economies. This map shows how much each country’s government debt compares to its economic output, measured as debt-to-GDP ratio, offering insight into fiscal resilience and vulnerability worldwide.”, Visual Capitalist & IMF World Economic Outlook, October 27, 2025

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“Global economic profit bounces back to an all-time high – After years of decline, economic profits rebounded with a vengeance—driven by tech companies, performance in the energy and materials sector, and capital growth in China and North America. When adjusted for inflation, and despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic profit between 2020 and 2024 increased to about $1.2 trillion per annum—50 percent above levels between 2005 and 2009. This is a notable shift from the past 15 years, when, as our previous research showed, companies’ aggregate economic profit—or their profit above the total cost of capital—mostly shrank.”, McKinsey & Co., September 4, 2025

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“The state of AI in 2025: Agents, innovation, and transformation – Three years since the introduction of gen AI tools triggered a new era of artificial intelligence, nearly nine out of ten survey respondents say their organizations are regularly using AI—but the pace of progress remains uneven. Almost all survey respondents say their organizations are using AI, and many have begun to use AI agents. But most are still in the early stages of scaling AI and capturing enterprise-level value. High curiosity in AI agents: Sixty-two percent of survey respondents say their organizations are at least experimenting with AI agents.”, McKinsey & Co., November 5, 2025

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“How Franchises Can Properly Structure AI for Success – A recent study from MIT delivered a sobering finding: 95 percent of AI initiatives fail to generate measurable return on investment. For many brands, this statistic has been a wake-up call. In a recent six-month study, Goldfish Swim School and Heights Wellness Retreat offered two early proof points. Instead of trying to overhaul their entire tech stack, each brand zeroed in on a single, high-impact question: how can they help their franchise business coaches identify underperforming units faster, understand what’s driving the issues, and act on the right next steps? A second factor is human-centered design that integrates AI into existing workflows. Systems that operate in isolation, or attempt to replace human judgment entirely, often struggle to gain adoption.”, Franchising.com, October 22, 2025

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes, Tariffs & Trade Issues

“OPEC+ Balances Oil Risks From Surplus to Sanctions – When OPEC+ meets this weekend, it’ll confront an oil market assailed by hazards on all sides. First, there are growing signs that a long-predicted supply surplus — swollen by the group’s production increases this year — is finally showing up. With Chinese demand cooling, top forecasters are bracing for a record glut in 2026. Then there are new US sanctions that threaten to disrupt exports from OPEC+ co-leader Russia. Finally, there’s the one-year trade truce reached this week between Washington and Beijing, which has allayed some of the concerns over oil demand and buoyed Brent crude futures near $65 a barrel.”, Bloomberg, October 31, 2025

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“Navigating Non-Tariff Barriers and Global Trade Challenges – The Global Chamber® Export-Import Forum, moderated by Anita Rodal, featured Bill Edwards, CEO and Global Trade Advisor at Edwards Global Services (Your newsletter Editor!!!), in a dynamic and highly informative discussion on international trade challenges and non-tariff barriers (NTBs) that impact businesses especially small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The conversation explored regulatory, compliance, and cultural challenges that companies face when entering global markets, and how to navigate these obstacles effectively through market research, local partnerships, and access to international resources. Bill emphasized that while tariffs are often discussed in trade policy, non-tariff barriers — including certification requirements, labeling regulations, customs procedures, and shifting political environments — often create even greater obstacles for small exporters. ‘About half of all non-tariff barriers serve legitimate public purposes,’ Bill explained, ‘But the other half can act as discriminatory trade barriers — depending on market.’”, Global Chamber, October 23^rd. Please go to this link for the YouTube webinar:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7_pH5kSF6Q

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“Oil Supertanker Earnings Soar to $125,000 a Day as Supply Swells – Earnings for ships that can carry two million barrels of crude from the Middle East to China jumped 40% to $125,000 a day, according to the Baltic Exchange. It’s the highest since April 2020, when the global pandemic forced traders to hoard oil at sea. Rates have been steadily rising as global oil supplies climb, with production growing both inside and outside of the OPEC+ alliance.”, Bloomberg, October 29, 2025

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“Three Nations Control the Global Fleet – The top three ship-owning nations by capacity, Greece, China, and Japan, account for over 40 percent of the world fleet by deadweight tonnage. Measured by vessel count, these three nations control nearly one-third of the global fleet. The combined share of the top 10 ship-owning countries reaches 67.3 percent of global fleet capacity. Much of the capacity owned by these top 10 ship-owning countries is registered under foreign flags.”, Visual Capitalist, October 31, 2025

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“World Power Demand to Rise Almost a Third by 2035 – Global power demand will continue to grow rapidly over the next decade, jumping about 30% as electric vehicles, data centers and the need to heat and cool buildings increases, although the source of that electricity will shift markedly, according to Rystad Energy. Legacy industrial sectors such as iron and steel, which were also key in seeing electricity consumption double over the past two decades, will be the biggest drivers, the energy research company said in a report. While data centers are becoming a notable source of demand growth, their power usage will remain a relatively small part of the total — at 3.5% in 2035.”, Bloomberg, October 30, 2025

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Global & Regional Travel News

“The world’s most—and least—powerful passports – Americans’ travel documents aren’t as muscular as they used to be. Citizens of some countries can speed through the gates; citizens of others must submit to interrogation and delay. Henley & Partners, a consultancy that helps rich people acquire citizenship in attractive countries, ranks passports by the number of countries their holders can enter without a visa. Its latest assessment of passport power shows that America is sliding down the table. Our map shows how countries compare this year.”, The Economist, October 16, 2025

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“Visa fees may blunt U.S. travel gains from weakened dollar – According to Morgan Stanley, the value of the U.S. dollar against other currencies dropped about 11% in the first half of 2025, the biggest decline in more than 50 years. Travel industry leaders are hopeful this might convert into more inbound visitation. But for many international visitors, a $250 visa fee introduced this month for visitors from countries that are not part of the Visa Waiver Program, including top markets Mexico, China, India and Brazil, makes visiting the U.S. more expensive. It does not apply to visitors from Canada or countries in the Visa Waiver Program, which includes most of Europe, Australia, Chile, Japan and South Korea.”, Travel Weekly, October 29, 2025.

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“The world’s best airports for business travellers revealed – The Booking.com for Business study analysed 50 of the world’s busiest airports based on factors such as the number of business class routes and proximity to the local business district. It comes as global business travel spending is forecast to climb to £1.2trillion by the end of 2025, before accelerating with 8.1 per cent growth in 2026. With a score of 9.55, Dubai International Airport holds the coveted top position in the Business Travel Airport Index. Singapore Changi Airport takes second place with a Business Travel Airport Index score of 9.01.”, The Daily Mail, November 5, 2025

Editor’s Note: Airports in both the United Kingdom and the United States did not make the top ten in the world for business travelers.

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Book Review

In The Art of Less – How to Focus on What Really Matters at Work by Mats Alvesson and André Spicer argue that many organizations and professionals are burdened by excess — too many meetings, overlapping initiatives, training programs, targets, rules and bureaucratic structures that distract from core work and value creation. They label this burden “organizational sludge” — the accumulation of practices, procedures and policies that consume time and energy yet deliver little meaning or impact.

The book explains how sludge arises (from over‑standardization, risk aversion, stakeholder demands and managerial interventions), how it proliferates via a “sludge cycle”, and the ways in which it throttles productivity, stifles innovation and demoralizes employees. In the final section the authors propose a “de‑sludging” agenda: diagnosing what is truly meaningful work, challenging assumptions about mandatory activities, streamlining structures, creating space for judgment and initiative, and instituting “institutional minimalism” — doing fewer things, but doing them better.

For global organizations especially, the book emphasizes that focus, clarity and simplicity become even more critical in complex transnational contexts where cultural, structural and regulatory burdens can multiply. The central message: doing less of the unnecessary enables more of what matters.

Five Key Takeaways for Global Businesspeople

Identify and eradicate “sludge” – In multinational operations you’ll often encounter layers of processes, approvals, trainings or reporting systems that serve local comfort rather than real value. Ask: What practices don’t help but hinder?

Prioritize meaningful work – Especially in global teams with time‑zones and cultural differences, ensure that the tasks people spend most time on align with value‑creation, not just activity.

Empower judgement rather than rigid controls – Standardizing globally can pull you into high sludge. Give local teams discretion so they can focus on what really matters in their context.

Streamline structures and governance – Franchising, licensing, global joint ventures: all benefit from “less but sharper” rules. Avoid duplicative procedures across countries that slow responses and innovation.

Embed minimalism in culture – Build a mindset of “do fewer things, do them better” across your global organization: fewer horizons, fewer KPIs, fewer initiatives but higher impact. A global business that executes fewer priorities well will outperform one stretched thin across many weak ones.

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Country & Regional Updates

China

“China’s exports fall for first time since ‘liberation day’ trade tariffs – China’s exports have declined for the first time since the US unleashed its “liberation day” tariffs in April, highlighting the impact of months of trade tensions even as the two powers struck a truce. Exports from the world’s second-biggest economy were down 1.1 per cent year-on-year in dollar terms in October, China customs data showed on Friday. The last time they fell was in February. The unexpected decline comes after months of strong export growth, including an 8.3 per cent rise in September. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 3 per cent increase last month.”, The Financial Times, November 6, 2025

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Eurozone Countries

“Eurozone economy expands 0.2% in third quarter – Better than expected performance comes after French output grows at fastest pace since 2023. It came after France’s statistical office Insee said earlier on Thursday that the Eurozone’s second-biggest economy grew by a better than expected 0.5 per cent in the third quarter, despite the country’s recent political turmoil. By contrast, Germany and Italy failed to grow in the third quarter.”, The Financial Times, October 30, 2025

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Mexico

“Mexico City Is the Most Video-Surveilled Metropolis in the Americas – Despite 83,000 public cameras, crime in Mexico City remains high—and widespread surveillance raises myriad ethical issues. This video surveillance system helps to offer traffic alternatives, to follow up demonstrations or road accidents, and to track robbery suspects in real time. It is a fundamental piece in the security plan promoted by city authorities. Although Mexico City’s video surveillance system is a tool to prevent and punish crimes, the city still registers the highest crime rate in the country, with 54,473 crimes per 100,000 inhabitants.’, Wired, November 7, 2025

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United States

“Private reports suggest US labor market weakened in October – Revelio Labs data shows job losses in October, including in the government sector. AI and cost-cutting drive surge in planned layoffs, Challenger reports. Chicago Fed estimates unemployment rate rose to 4.36% in October. The U.S. economy shed jobs in October amid losses in the government and retail sectors, while cost-cutting and the adoption of artificial intelligence by businesses led to a surge in announced layoffs, data showed on Thursday. The reports, including an estimate from the Chicago Federal Reserve that the unemployment rate edged up last month from September, would at face value suggest a deterioration in labor market conditions. But a shutdown of the government, the longest on record, and the accompanying official economic data blackout have made it impossible to gauge the labor market status.”, Reuters, November 6, 2025

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“US Consumer Sentiment Is at Near-Record Lows – American consumers are not happy campers. Sentiment across the country is close to the lowest it has ever been as rising inflation, rising unemployment, mass firings, a global trade war and now a record-breaking government shutdown have combined to make people less than cheery as the holidays approach. Unemployment expectations rose for a third straight month as consumers assigned an average 43% probability—the highest since April—to the likelihood the unemployment rate will be higher a year from now.”, Bloomberg, November 7, 2025

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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification

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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News

“These Are The Fastest-Growing Chain Restaurants In 2025 – While legacy chains like McDonald’s (founded in 1940), Chick-fil-A (founded in 1946), and Starbucks (founded in 1971) continue to dominate the market, ambitious restaurant chains are racing to claim real estate across the country. Private equity firms are buying up chains that have mastered the franchise model. Pandemic-era shifts in dining habits have created opportunities for brands to refine takeout, delivery, and drive-thru services. And consumers, heavily influenced by social media and always hungry for the next big thing, are embracing both nostalgic comfort food and bold new flavors.”, Tasting Table, November 4, 2025

Editor’s Note: Leading the charge to open lots of new restaurants a year are Dave’s Hot Chicken®, Raising Cane’s®, Jersey Mike’s Subs®, Bojangles® and Bonchon®.

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“Denny’s to be acquired by group of investors for $620M – TriArtisan Capital Advisors, Treville Capital Group and Yadav Enterprises will take the diner chain and its sister brand Keke’s private in a surprising deal. Spartanburg, S.C.-based Denny’s consists of the 1,484-unit namesake diner chain as well as the 74-unit Keke’s Breakfast Cafe. It has been publicly traded since 1997, and there had been no indications that it was for sale.”, Restaurant Business, November 3, 2025

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“Brinker Profit Rises as Chili’s Shrugs Off Restaurant Slowdown – The chain recorded 13% growth in traffic. Chili’s owner Brinker International reported higher first-quarter profit and sales despite broader industry concern about consumers pulling back from restaurants due to higher prices. Top-line gains were fueled by 21% comparable sales growth for Chili’s. Restaurants have reported weaker earnings in recent months as consumers pull back from higher prices. But Chili’s has been able to draw customers, who see the chain as having better value than other restaurants.”, The Wall Street Journal, October 29, 2025

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“Burger King Owner Sells Majority of China Unit to Speed Growth – Restaurant Brands International Inc. agreed to sell a majority stake in the China unit of its Burger King chain, part of a plan to ignite growth there. The Burger King owner entered a joint venture with CPE, an Asia-based asset manager. CPE will invest $350 million in the entity to boost Burger King locations there to more than 4,000 by 2035 — up from 1,250. After completion of the transaction, CPE will own about 83% of the business.”, Bloomberg, November 10, 2025

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“Behind Yum China’s solid Q3: Franchising gains and cost discipline pay off – Yum China delivered another solid quarter with a revenue jump of 4 per cent to US$3.2 billion. For the three months ended September 30, operating profit rose 8 per cent year-on-year to US$400 million, setting a third-quarter record. Expansion accelerated to 536 net new stores in the quarter, bringing Yum China’s footprint to 17,514 locations across six brands. The company remains on track for 1600 – 1800 net new stores this year and 20,000 by the end of next year, with franchisees accounting for about one-third of the new units this quarter. The franchise mix reached 41 per cent for KFC and 27 per cent for Pizza Hut, a key part of the company’s strategy to lower capital intensity and improve returns.”, Inside Retail AU, November 7, 2025

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“Starbucks China is valued at over 13 billion and Boyu Capital will acquire a 60 percent stake in the joint venture – Starbucks Enterprise Management (China) Co., Ltd. announced on its official Weibo account that Starbucks Coffee Company and Boyu Capital, a Chinese alternative asset management company, have reached a strategic cooperation agreement. The two parties will establish a joint venture to jointly operate Starbucks’ retail business in the Chinese market. Under the agreement, Boyu Capital will hold up to 60% of the joint venture, while Starbucks will retain 40% and continue to license the Starbucks brand and intellectual property to the newly established joint venture. Boyu Capital, founded in 2011, is an alternative asset management company with a strong presence in the Chinese market and a global footprint. Currently, Boyu Capital has offices in Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, and Singapore, with a portfolio of over 200 companies, and has built a diversified investment management platform covering private equity, public markets, infrastructure, and venture capital.”, Caijing.com.cn, November 4, 2025. Translation provided by Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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“Club Pilates Announces Thailand Master Franchise Agreement – Club Pilates announced today it has signed a Master Franchise Agreement in Thailand, with a commitment to open 20 studios in Bangkok, the municipality and Chonburi Province.”, Franchising.com. October 15, 2025

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“Wendy’s to Close Hundreds of Stores as Consumers Cut Restaurant Spending – Wendy’s said it would close hundreds of locations through next year as consumers continue to pull back on spending at restaurants. Interim Chief Executive Ken Cook said on the company’s earnings call that it would close a midsingle-digit percentage of its U.S. restaurants beginning this year and continuing into next year. Wendy’s has roughly 6,000 restaurants in the U.S.”, The Wall Street Journal, November 7, 2025

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To receive our biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

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www.edwardsglobal.com

And download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business, used by many companies for strategic planning, at this link:

Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking

Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 146, Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Posted on Oct 28th, 2025 in Asia Pacific, Europe, India, Miscellaneous, Predictions and Trends, Professional Development, World Culture, World Economy | Comments Off

The most dangerous phrase in business is:

‘We’ve always done it this way.’

Welcome to the 146th Edition of the Global Business Update – As 2025 closes, business leaders face a world defined by economic recalibration and geopolitical realignment. The global economy continues to expand—though unevenly—as nations adapt to persistent inflation, rising borrowing costs, and shifting supply-chain dependencies. Emerging markets are proving surprisingly resilient, powered by domestic demand, digital adoption, and regional trade initiatives that are gradually replacing the old globalization model with something more balanced and diversified. Eight Of Top 10 U.S. Imports From China In 2018 Down More Than 50% Now

At the same time, non-tariff barriers and regulatory nationalism continue to challenge exporters and investors alike. Governments are becoming more assertive in protecting domestic industries, setting new environmental and labor standards, and regulating data flows and market access. These policies are reshaping how companies think about risk and market entry. Success today requires agility, partnerships built on trust, and a long-term commitment to local compliance and cultural understanding.

The global energy transition, rapid advances in AI, and demographic shifts are also influencing business decisions in profound ways. Many corporations are investing in technology and sustainability not only to meet shareholder expectations but to secure their license to operate in a world that values accountability and resilience.

This edition includes our regular look at global economic indicators, corporate expansion trends, and the latest developments in international trade and investment. We close with a focus on global franchising, one of the most consistently successful models for taking U.S. concepts abroad. The franchise section highlights new markets opening for brands and the evolving legal and operational frameworks shaping this dynamic sector.

This edition’s book review highlights: The Corporation in the Twenty-First Century: Why (Almost) Everything We Are Told About Business Is Wrong by John Kay (2025) challenges decades of assumptions about what corporations are, how they create value, and what their true purpose should be. Kay argues that most of the models we still teach and follow were built for an industrial economy that no longer exists. In that world, success was measured by control of physical assets, vertical integration, and economies of scale.

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To receive our biweekly newsletter by email every other Tuesday, click here https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Link to our current and past newsletters: https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“The most dangerous phrase in business is: ‘We’ve always done it this way.’”, Grace Hopper, Computer Scientist and U.S. Navy Rear Admiral

“The companies that survive are the ones that work out what they uniquely can give to the world.”, Simon Sinek, Author and Speaker

“Leadership today means connecting the dots between cultures, not just markets.”, Satya Nadella, CEO, Microsoft

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Highlights in issue #146:

Global trade has flourished even as U.S. tariffs rocked American trade

Eight Of Top 10 U.S. Imports From China In 2018 Down More Than 50% Now

Gen Alpha Purchasing Power Tops $28 Billion

Understanding Decision-making in Korean Business Culture

Brand Global News Section: Burger King®, German Doner Kebab® Pizza Hut UK and Wingsup®

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim – The global economy is adjusting to a landscape reshaped by new policy measures. Some extremes of higher tariffs were tempered, thanks to subsequent deals and resets. But the overall environment remains volatile, and temporary factors that supported activity in the first half of 2025—such as front-loading—are fading. As a result, global growth projections in the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) are revised upward relative to the April 2025 WEO but continue to mark a downward revision relative to the pre-policy-shift forecasts. Global growth is projected to slow from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026, with advanced economies growing around 1.5 percent and emerging market and developing economies just above 4 percent. Risks are tilted to the downside. Prolonged uncertainty, more protectionism, and labor supply shocks could reduce growth.”, The International Monetary Fund, October 2025

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“Upgrading corporate affairs for a new geopolitical era – Geopolitical tensions and economic competition are raising the demands on corporate-affairs teams. Geopolitical turmoilis shifting the ground beneath business leaders’ feet. Executives are navigating waves of new tariffs, fallout from conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, escalating tensions in Asia, and an expanding web of policy measures through which governments seek to secure economic and strategic advantages. At a time when rules governing global trade and business change rapidly and perceived geopolitical affiliations can reverse a company’s fortunes, defining the corporate narrative and deftly managing relations with governments, regulators, and other geopolitical influencers are crucial to success.”, Geopolitical Futures, October 8, 2025

Editor’s Note: There is the emergence of a new ‘C’ level executive in several large corporations– the Geopolitical Risk Officer (GRO) who is responsible for identifying, analyzing, and mitigating risks to the company’s operations, supply chains, and investments arising from global political, economic, and security developments. A Geopolitical Risk Officer monitors and manages the impact of international political, economic, and security events on a company’s global strategy, operations, and reputation.

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“Across the rich world, fiscal crises loom – Gross public debt as a share of gdp in advanced economies stands near 110%, close to an all-time high. A rise in interest rates since 2022—initiated by central bankers to control inflation that was caused in part by government spending sprees—has made debts far more burdensome. Rich countries as a whole now spend half as much again on interest as they do on national defence. The prospect investors must worry about is not just—or even mainly—that of default. There is another weapon that can hurt them over long horizons: inflation. Debts are typically fixed in nominal terms, meaning higher prices can erode their real value. The irony of the world’s fiscal mess is that economic conditions are benign. No major economy is in a recession. Public debts have fallen slightly in real terms since their pandemic peak (due to inflation). And though interest rates have risen, in many countries they remain below the rate of economic growth.”, The Economist, October 13, 2025

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“The 20 happiest cities in the world in 2025, according to locals – We quizzed more than 18,000 urbanites on how joyful their city makes them feel – here’s what they had to say. Our happiness metric was based on the percentage of positive responses to five statements: My city makes me happy; I feel happier in my city than other places I’ve visited or lived; The people in my city seem happy; I find joy in the everyday experiences my city offers; The sense of happiness in my city has grown a lot recently. Here are the “Top 20” happiest cities in the world in 2025: 1. Abu Dhabi, UAE, 2. Medellín, Colombia, 3. Cape Town, South Africa, 4. Mexico City, Mexico, 5. Mumbai, India, 6. Beijing, China, 7. Shanghai, China. 8. Chicago, US, 9. Seville, Spain, 10. Melbourne, Australia, 11. Brighton, UK, 12. Porto, Portugal, 13. Sydney, Australia, 14. Chiang Mai, Thailand, 15. Marrakech, Morocco, 16. Dubai, UAE, 17. Hanoi, Vietnam, 18. Jakarta, Indonesia; 19. Valencia, Spain and 20. Glasgow, UK.”, Time Out, October 10, 2025

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“1 in 4 European workplaces make decisions with algorithms and AI that impact employee working life– As artificial intelligence (AI) and algorithmic management tools trickle into Europe’s workplaces, labour professionals are urging the European Union to introduce a new directive to safeguard workers’ rights. A joint report from the Commission and the International Labour Organisation (ILO) found that the French logistics sector uses AI-powered route planning tools to give drivers information like road traffic and delivery locations in real time, but this can lead to ‘extensive monitoring and surveillance of drivers’. Algorithmic management can decide an employee’s working conditions, such as the hours that people work, wages, shifts, and performance assessment.”, Euro News, October 27, 2025

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“Gen Alpha Purchasing Power Tops $28 Billion – 66% of Gen Alpha parents say their child prefers shopping in-store with the top reasons being family time outside the home (47%) and the sense that shopping trips are fun (45%). 53% of Gen Alpha parents report giving some sort of allowance to their children with the average weekly allowance being $22 for personal spending and saving. Gen Alpha uses their allowance dollars to purchase snacks (59%), toys (55%), entertainment (34%), electronics (31%), and beverages (31%). Gen Alpha consumer behavior is also clear in their quick-service restaurant preferences. Gen Alpha parents say their kids like McDonald’s best overall (34%), especially among 1–5-year-olds (40%) and 6–10-year-olds (39%), thanks to kid-friendly menus and cultural staying power. Chick-fil-A ranks second at 17%, maintaining steady appeal across all groups. But by ages 11–14, choices diversify: McDonald’s slips to 25% while Starbucks (10%) and Taco Bell (9%) rise in popularity. Gen Alpha is the first truly digital-native generation, and social media is central to how they discover products. Among 11–14-year-olds, 48% learn about new products from influencers and internet personalities, a rate that now rivals in-store discovery.”, Franchising.com, October 22, 2025

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes, Tariffs & Trade Issues

“Global trade has flourished even as U.S. tariffs rocked American trade – Waves of American tariffs may have rocked freight flows with the country’s closest partners, but worldwide trade continued largely unabated, according to a study from parcel and logistics firm DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business. In fact, global trade grew faster in the first half of 2025 than in any half-year since 2010, excluding the pandemic rebound, the researchers said. One reason why trade can continue growing even as the U.S. raises tariffs is that only 13% of global goods imports went to the U.S. in 2024 and only 9% of exports came from the U.S. Another reason is that most countries have not followed the U.S. in implementing broad tariff increases, DHL said.”, Supply Chain Xchange, October 14, 2025

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Global & Regional Travel News

“6 Ways Travel Is About to Get More Expensive—And Why – Groaning at the cost of your latest rental, flight, or hotel stay? Get used to it, because global events are turning. These are the travel-related costs that are most likely to increase in the near future. According to the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA), hotel rates are expected to increase globally by 4% over the next few years. This is partly due to demand outstripping supply in certain places, especially popular business hubs…… In 2025, Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport tripled its hourly parking rates, Denver International Airport increased usage fees that are tacked onto airfare so it can fund infrastructure improvements, and Richmond International Airport jacked up parking charges as a direct response to its own rising operational costs. Starting in 2027, airlines in 126 member states will be required offset growth in CO2 emissions. Some airlines, including Lufthansa, have already started raising the price you pay to offset these costs, adding what they’re referring to as ‘environmental cost surcharges’”., Frommers, October 14, 2025

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Book Review

The Corporation in the Twenty-First Century: Why (Almost) Everything We Are Told About Business Is Wrong by John Kay (2025) challenges decades of assumptions about what corporations are, how they create value, and what their true purpose should be. Kay argues that most of the models we still teach and follow were built for an industrial economy that no longer exists. In that world, success was measured by control of physical assets, vertical integration, and economies of scale.

Today’s leading companies, he explains, thrive not by owning machinery or real estate, but by orchestrating networks of people, partners, technology, and ideas. The modern corporation’s true strength lies in coordination — the ability to align talent, innovation, and purpose across a complex ecosystem.

He also dismantles the long-standing notion that the primary goal of business is to maximize shareholder value. According to Kay, this thinking has led to short-term decision-making, fragile supply chains, and declining trust. Instead, he calls for a renewed focus on corporate purpose — building organizations that create sustainable value for customers, employees, and societies over time.

In essence, Kay reframes the modern corporation as a living system — one that must continually learn, adapt, and evolve. It’s not just about financial engineering or scale, but about cultivating capabilities that competitors cannot easily copy. His message is especially relevant for global business leaders: those who succeed in the 21st century will be the ones who build resilient, people-centered organizations capable of thriving amid constant technological and geopolitical disruption.

Five Takeaways for Global Business Leaders

Prioritize capabilities over assets – Competitive advantage today comes from talent, brand, and partnerships, not factory ownership.

Redefine corporate purpose – Profit follows from delivering sustained value to customers and society, not from chasing shareholder returns.

Build adaptive networks – Global success depends on orchestrating people, suppliers, and knowledge across borders.

Think long-term – Resist short-term financial targets that erode innovation and resilience.

Lead with trust and purpose – Transparency, responsibility, and shared goals now define durable global enterprises

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Country & Regional Updates

Africa

“Africa Attracts Billions as Tariffs Redraw Global Trade Map – As US tariffs redraw traditional trade routes, investors are plowing tens of billions of dollars into the continent’s farms, railways, renewable energy, and data hubs, betting that Africa will be the next big supply-chain link in a fractured world economy. With the African Continental Free Trade Area promising a $3.4 trillion common market by 2035, the region with the world’s youngest population is becoming a magnet for both capital and competition. But opportunity brings risk. The continent faces an infrastructure gap of as much as $108 billion a year, patchy governance and rising debt burdens.”, Bloomberg, October 23, 2025

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Canada

“Why more Canadian small businesses are embracing AI to build for the future – According to a recent report from Statistics Canada, 12.2 per cent of businesses surveyed in the second quarter of 2025 reported using AI to produce goods or deliver services in the previous 12 months, an increase of 6.1 per cent from the same period in 2024. A separate study from the Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC) found ‘a staggering 97 per cent of SMEs (small- and medium-sized enterprises) using AI reported tangible benefits, including increased efficiency, reduced costs, higher sales, improved customer service, and better management of sales, production or inventory.’, The Globe and Mail, October 21, 2025

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China

“Eight Of Top 10 U.S. Imports From China In 2018 Down More Than 50% Now – The U.S. deficit with China is down 52.94% from 2018 to today, when comparing the latest year-to-date Census data, which is through July. The deficit has fallen, in that seven-month window, from $296.54 billion to $194.98 billion. Part of that is because overall imports from China have fallen 34.62% from the same seven-month period in 2018. U.S. exports to China are down 12.01%, which I discuss in this post. There are other signs. The U.S. deficit with China, more than five times as great as that with any other country in 2018, is little more than 12% larger than the U.S. deficit with Mexico today. While the U.S. trade deficit with China declined, the U.S. deficit with the world hit $809.29 billion, the first time ever above $800 billion through July. The U.S. deficit with the world today is 29.71% greater than it was in the summer of 2018.”, Forbes, October 21, 2025

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“China’s secret stockpiles have been a great success—so far – Since early 2024, when it became clear that President Donald Trump might return to the White House, officials have stockpiled fuel, food and metals to limit exposure to sanctions and tariffs. Those measures accelerated, and broadened, after Mr Trump slapped high duties on Chinese goods in the spring. China does have reason to fret about its energy supply. Despite booming electric-vehicle sales, it will continue to need 16m or so oil barrels a day (b/d) for years—three-quarters of which it must import. Its purchases of natural gas have tripled in the past ten years as urban heating and fertiliser plants demand more. And it imports half a billion tonnes a year of coal, which remains the fuel for 60% of its power. Although the country is one of the world’s mineral refining centres, it imports 85% of the iron it bakes into steel; is short of bauxite, the underlying ore for aluminium; and its smelters ship in 88% of their raw copper. It buys four-fifths of the 100m-120m tonnes of soyabeans it feeds to its 430m hogs and 70% of the edible oil it blends into processed food.”, The Economist, October 26, 2025

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India

“Amazon says India’s e-commerce exports top $20 billion, despite US tariffs – U.S. tariffs pose short-term challenge; long-term outlook firm. Seller base hits 200,000 across 200 cities; small towns surge. Sets $80 bln export goal for 2030 as reforms boost e-commerce. Thousands of Indian artisans and small businesses were affected after the U.S. doubled tariffs on certain goods to 50% starting on August 27. The tariffs were a response to India’s purchases of Russian oil. Amazon’s Global Selling programme, unveiled in 2015, enables Indian small- and medium-sized enterprises to sell to customers in 18 global markets, including the U.S., Britain, Germany, Canada and the United Arab Emirates.”, Reuters, October 27, 2025

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South Korea

“Understanding Decision-making in Korean Business Culture – In most Korean companies, leadership makes decisions on direction and major issues. Your role as part of the local or working team is to gather and prepare the necessary information. Once approved, you’ll report back to headquarters on implementation and progress. If you’re hoping to propose a new idea, service, or program, understand this: your local Korean management’s role is to collect your information and share it with the appropriate senior team members—often back in Korea. Your local opinion is valued, but the final approval? That always comes from Korea.”, Bridging Culture Worldwide, October 2025. Compliments of Don Southerton.

Editor’s Note: This is one of our author focus additions to the Geowizard newsletter. Don has more than 20 years of direct business experience in South Korea. His insights will help anyone considering doing business in this interesting but often challenging market.

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Spain

“The high costs of Spain’s renewables revolution – It is a country with almost no oil or gas of its own, which until recently was a disadvantage. But in a decade Spain has transformed its energy matrix. Wind and solar now account for more than 40% of the total electricity supply. In a land of abundant sunshine, the share of solar is set to rise further. Not only has Spain become a world leader in the energy transition but renewables have driven down the cost of generation. Industry experts say there are two main problems. First, electricity supply has grown much faster than demand……. The second problem is that the supply of solar power, which tends to be highest in the middle of the day when demand is lower, has not gone hand in hand with sufficient investment in storage and stabilisation technologies, such as batteries.”, The Economist, October 16, 2025

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United Kingdom

“The rise of the eat-at-home economy – Consumers are increasingly shunning the restaurant experience for the comfort and cost savings of their living rooms. After Covid’s disruption, dining out rose sharply — but that has fallen back as food delivery resumes its steady growth. The trend is fuelling a growing “eat at home” economy, where consumers are shunning the dining out experience for the comfort, convenience and cost savings of their living rooms. It represents a new kind of competition for restaurants, which are already facing off against the popular convenience of delivery services, as they grapple with rising food and labour inflation, particularly in the UK.
As restaurants have struggled, delivery providers have also flourished. Between 2023 and 2024, the value of the UK’s delivery market grew 8.2 per cent, far outstripping a 2.5 per cent rise for eat-in restaurants, according to Euromonitor. This shift was even more pronounced in the US, where the delivery market expanded 18 per cent last year, while the eat-in restaurant market actually contracted.”, The Financial Times, October 24, 2025

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United States

“Why Employers Aren’t Hiring Anymore – The U.S. economy is adding far fewer jobs than it used to, raising the question of what factors are holding back hiring. An analysis by Goldman Sachs economists found President Donald Trump’s immigration restrictions were the biggest factor. Other reasons include economic uncertainty about about tariffs and layoffs of federal workers, as well as artificial intelligence. The biggest factor in the slowdown in recent months is Trump’s crackdown on immigration…….Trump’s cutbacks to the federal workforce have also slowed things down, reducing government hiring by 30,000. Additionally, Goldman noted that a reduction in spending on federal contracts is weighing on the labor market.”, Investopedia, October 23, 2025

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“Here’s the (U.S.) inflation breakdown for September 2025 – The consumer price index rose 3% on an annual basis in September 2025. Economists said the Trump administration’s tariff agenda could raise consumer prices more in the months ahead. Without any other economic data, the report provides a look at the state of the U.S. economy ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. “Core” commodities — which exclude volatile food and energy prices — also rose 3% in September from a year earlier. The CPI tracks how quickly prices rise or fall for a basket of consumer goods and services, from coffee and bananas to club memberships and concert tickets.”, CNBC, October 24, 2025

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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification

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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News

“German Doner Kebab signs franchise agreement for India, 450 sites to open over next 15 years – GDK’s first India restaurant is set to open in early 2026. The launch follows a milestone year for GDK, having opened its 150th UK restaurant, in Leeds, this month and the imminent debut of its first Ireland location in Dublin. GDK has more than 170 restaurants across the UK, Ireland, Sweden, North America, and the Middle East. The brand has grown at pace through a franchise model, cementing its presence in UK high streets, travel hubs, and shopping centres, and is now accelerating its international footprint.”, Propel Info, October 27, 2025

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“Pizza Hut UK acquires Pizza Hut’s dine-in operations, 74 restaurants closing with loss of more than 1,700 jobs – The business has now been acquired by Pizza Hut UK. A spokesperson said: “Today, Pizza Hut UK announces the acquisition of the Pizza Hut dine-in operations through a pre-packaged administration, after FTI was announced as administrators of DC London Pie, a franchisee of Pizza Hut dine-in restaurants. We are pleased to secure the continuation of 64 sites to safeguard our guest experience and protect the associated jobs. Approximately 1,277 team members will transfer to the new Yum! equity business under UK TUPE legislation, including above-restaurant leaders and support teams.”, Propel Info, October 20, 2025

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“Who Owns Burger King? The Answer Isn’t As Straightforward As You’d Think. Outlets of most ubiquitous fast food brands look the same no matter where you are. This consistent appearance and experience you get makes every outlet feel like it’s a part of a monolithic whole — owned and managed by the same entity. So, whether you walk into a Burger King in the United States, Europe, or Japan, you probably think it’s owned by the same company. However, this isn’t the case. In fact, over 90% of Burger King’s 19,000-odd locations are actually owned by small companies and individuals, and not by the brand’s actual parent company, Restaurant Brands International Inc. (RBI). This difference in ownership is what makes Burger King a franchise and not a chain restaurant. As it turns out, RBI owns the Burger King brand as well as Popeyes, Tim Horton’s, and Firehouse Subs — which cover over 30,000 restaurants across more than a hundred countries.”, Chowhound, October 25, 2025

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“Burger King Owner Is Said to Shortlist CPE and HSG for China Stake – Chinese private equity firms HSG and CPE are vying for a controlling stake in Burger King’s China business, according to people familiar with the situation. Burger King isn’t the only well-known Western brand adapting to changes in the China market, with others including Starbucks Corp. working to bring in investors for their businesses in the country, Bloomberg News has reported. RBI, which also owns the Tim Hortons, Popeyes and Firehouse Subs chains, bought out its Burger King China joint venture partner for about $151 million in February, and assumed roughly $178 million of outstanding debt, its quarterly report shows. The company said in the report it was trying to find a new controlling shareholder that aligned with its strategy of partnering with experienced local operators while maintaining a primarily franchised business.”, Bloomberg, October 27, 2025

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“How Canadian Concept WingsUp! Plans to Stand Out in America’s Crowded Chicken Market – The legacy chain is targeting Texas, Georgia, and Florida, and should open some store within the next 12 months. WingsUp is jumping head first into its U.S. growth. It’s opening a corporate office in Dallas so that it can begin expansion in Texas, Florida, and Georgia—all states with strong sports fandom, a demographic that correlates strongly with eating chicken wings. On the company’s franchising website, it points out Jacksonville, Orlando, Tampa, and Miami as key markets in Florida, and El Paso, Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, San Antonio, and Houston in Texas.”, QSR Magazine, October 24, 2025

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

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Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 145, Tuesday, October 14, 2025

Posted on Oct 13th, 2025 in Asia Pacific, Europe, India, Miscellaneous, Predictions and Trends, Professional Development, World Culture, World Economy | Comments Off

“History is who we are and why we are the way we are.”

Welcome to the 145th Edition of the Global Business Update – The world is changing faster than our assumptions — but opportunity remains for those who adapt with clarity. As we enter the final quarter of 2025, global business is defined by contrasts—momentum in some markets and fragility in others. The World Trade Organization reports stronger-than-expected trade growth this year, driven by AI-related demand, even as tariffs and political headwinds reshape supply chains. Emerging markets are surging back, marking their biggest rally in 15 years, while developed markets face slower growth and rising caution.

Innovation continues to redraw the global landscape: China enters the top ten of the Global Innovation Index for the first time, and South Korea reaches new heights in R&D-driven competitiveness. Yet these shifts occur amid widening gaps in access and cost—such as internet prices ranging from $0.01 per Mbps in Romania to over $4 in the UAE.

From Australia’s search for a post-China growth model to Brazil’s rise as an energy powerhouse and Vietnam’s new status as an emerging-market leader, nations are redefining their global roles. Meanwhile, Europe’s gradual digital border rollout, India’s billion-dollar IPO wave, and the Middle East’s growing appeal to Chinese travelers signal an era of recalibration rather than retreat.

In franchising and consumer brands, staying power is the new currency of success. Dave’s Hot Chicken’s billion-dollar acquisition, Din Tai Fung’s global momentum, and Pizza 4P’s expansion to New York highlight how authentic concepts cross borders when backed by operational discipline and cultural adaptability.

This edition’s book review highlights: History Matters by David McCullough, one of America’s most respected historians, is best known for his Pulitzer Prize–winning biographies and accessible storytelling. In History Matters: Reflections on History and the American Experience, McCullough gathers speeches and essays delivered over several decades. While brief in form, the collection packs enduring insights on why history is not simply about the past—it is about how we live, lead, and make choices in the present.

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To receive our biweekly newsletter by email every other Tuesday, click here https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Link to our current and past newsletters: https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“History is who we are and why we are the way we are.”, David McCullough

“The future belongs to those who can see connections where others see walls.”, Madeleine Albright, Former U.S. Secretary of State

“In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.”, Warren Buffett

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Highlights in issue #145:

Internet Costs by Country in 2025

The World’s Most Innovative Countries in 2025

EU begins gradual rollout of digital border system

Which Chinese regions are being hit hardest by US tariffs?

Brand Global News Section: Dave’s Hot Chicken®, Din Tai Fung®, Dominos®, Pizza 4Ps®

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“Internet Costs by Country in 2025 – UAE has the world’s most expensive fixed internet at $4.31 per Mbps. Eastern Europe leads affordability, with Romania as low as $0.01 per Mbps. In a world more connected than ever, internet access has become essential infrastructure. But the price people pay for that access varies dramatically around the globe. This graphic compares the cost of fixed broadband internet per megabit per second (Mbps) across 60+ countries in 2025. At the top of the list, the United Arab Emirates stands out with an average cost of $4.31 per Mbps—nearly double that of the second-most expensive, Ghana ($2.58). These high prices are often due to limited competition, infrastructure challenges, and regulatory factors. Switzerland, Kenya, and Morocco also rank high on the list, all exceeding $1.00 per Mbps.”, Visual Capitalist & We Are Social, October 2, 2025

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“The AI capex endgame is approaching – The rapid building of excess capacity both extends bubbles and ultimately bursts them. The dramatic rise in AI capital expenditure by so-called hyperscalers of the technology and the stock concentration in US equities are classic peak bubble signals. But history shows that a bust triggered by this over-investment may hold the key to the positive long-run potential of AI. AI stocks have exhibited bubble characteristics for a while. Share prices have skyrocketed, driving excessive index concentration. The good news is that the aggressive AI capex build-out almost guarantees AI’s future ubiquity. The bad news is that this will probably only come after a period of Schumpeterian creative destruction.”, The Financial Times, October 2, 2025

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“The World’s Most Innovative Countries in 2025 – This graphic maps the main results of the Global Innovation Index (GII) 2025, which captures the innovation ecosystem performance of 139 economies. China has entered the GII’s top 10 for the first time, while South Korea climbed to fourth (its highest position to date). Innovation is often viewed as the backbone of economic competitiveness. In this graphic, we’ve visualized the results of the annual Global Innovation Index (GII), which ranks countries on their ability to foster research and entrepreneurship. In our map, lower scores are shown as darker shades of blue, transitioning to green and then yellow as score increases.”, Visual Capitalist & WIPO Global Innovation Index, October 2, 2025

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes, Tariffs & Trade Issues

“Hell Hath No Fury Like a Coffee Drinker in 2025 – Prices are driving people to expletive-laden rants, but few are quitting caffeine; ‘I cannot function without that coffee.’ Roasted coffee prices at the grocery store are up 22% in the past year, more than any other item tracked by the government. The price increases are due to bad weather in the world’s coffee-growing regions and the Trump Administration’s tariffs.”, The Wall Street Journal, October 3, 2025

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“Emerging markets roar back with biggest stock rally in 15 years – ‘Stars are finally aligning’ for EM assets, as weakening US dollar sends investors in search of yield. An MSCI benchmark index of emerging-market stocks has risen 28 per cent so far this year, its biggest gain over the same period since 2009, while a JPMorgan index of government bonds sold by developing countries in their own currencies is up 16 per cent, in a growing comeback from a “lost decade” in the shadow of US markets. The rally in emerging market stocks has far outpaced gains in advanced economies — an MSCI index of developed market stocks is up less than 17 per cent so far this year.”, The Financial Times, October 6, 2025

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“Global Trade Growth to Be Stronger Than Expected, WTO Says – Cites artificial intelligence surge and a buildup in inventories in the U.S. that softens the impact of higher tariffs. Global trade is projected to increase by 2.4% in 2025, a significant rise from earlier forecasts due to AI-related purchases and U.S. inventory buildup. Trade in AI-related products, including semiconductors and servers, surged by 20% in the first half of 2025, accounting for 42% of total trade growth. The WTO lowered its 2026 trade growth forecast to 0.5% from 1.8%, anticipating the full impact of tariffs and the depletion of built-up inventories. Global trade in goods will increase more rapidly than previously expected this year as purchases of goods related to artificial intelligence surge and a buildup in inventories in the U.S. softens the impact of higher tariffs, the World Trade Organization said Tuesday.”, The Wall Street Journal, October 7, 2025

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Global & Regional Travel News

“Travel Forecast – The U.S. Travel Fall 2025 update projects slower growth for travel in 2025, but higher growth rates in 2026 and beyond. Spending is buoyed by continued growth in domestic leisure travel despite economic concerns. International inbound travel is projected to decrease in 2025 for the first time since 2020, but to resume growth in 2026 driven by U.S. hosted events such as the FIFA World Cup and America 250 celebrations. Travel to the United States is projected to reverse course and fall to just 85% of 2019 levels in 2025.”, U.S. Travel Association, October 1, 2025

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“Middle East gains ground with Chinese tourists during Golden Week – The Middle East has traditionally not ranked among the top destinations for Chinese travelers, but that appears to be changing fast. During this year’s extended Golden Week holiday — which runs Oct. 1–8 — Chinese travel reservations to Doha surged 441% from a year earlier, while bookings to Abu Dhabi rose 229%, according to Trip.com. Meanwhile, Dubai saw a 27% increase, placing it among the top 10 destinations outside Asia, according to travel data analytics firm ForwardKeys, which counted international departures from China between Sept. 27 and Oct. 12.”, CNBC, October 11, 2025

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“Boeing 737 loses status as world’s most popular jet – First introduced in 1967, Boeing’s 737 was developed as an industry workhorse to run on high-frequency routes between cities within the US and Europe. A 737 takes off or lands every 1.5 seconds and the global fleet has carried more than 31 billion passengers – or four flights for everyone on the planet. Airbus, based in Toulouse, France, introduced the A320 in 1988 – giving Boeing’s 737 a 19-year head start on orders. However, the arrival of the re-engined A320neo model in 2020 saw Airbus gain an advantage and it has been steadily gaining ground since.”, The London Telegraph, October 7, 2025

Editor’s Note: During my first career in the international oil & gas sector, I flew on a 737 in the Persian Gulf at 130 degrees F and 100% humidity and on the North Slope of Alaska in -77 degrees F and 0% humidity. This airplane has had the widest operating range ever.

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“EU begins gradual rollout of digital border system – EU Entry/Exit System to be rolled out over six months. Passport stamping to be replaced by digital records. EU seeks tighter border controls amid immigration pressures. European Union member countries began rolling out a new entry and exit system on Sunday at the bloc’s external borders, electronically registering non-EU nationals’ data. The Entry/Exit System (EES), an automated system that requires travellers to register at the border by scanning their passport and having their fingerprints and photograph taken, will be introduced over six months. The move is aimed at detecting overstayers, tackling identity fraud and preventing illegal migration amid political pressure in some EU countries to take a tougher stance.”, Reuters, October 11, 2025

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Book Review

History Matters by David McCullough, one of America’s most respected historians, is best known for his Pulitzer Prize–winning biographies and accessible storytelling. In History Matters: Reflections on History and the American Experience, McCullough gathers speeches and essays delivered over several decades. While brief in form, the collection packs enduring insights on why history is not simply about the past—it is about how we live, lead, and make choices in the present.

McCullough insists that history is more than facts and dates. It is a narrative of people—leaders, innovators, citizens—facing uncertainty, overcoming obstacles, and often reshaping the world in ways they themselves could not fully see. That perspective resonates deeply for business leaders navigating today’s volatile global environment. The stories McCullough shares remind us that resilience, values, and the willingness to adapt are the threads connecting successful endeavors across time.

Another recurring theme is humility. McCullough urges readers not to view history as inevitable but as contingent—a series of decisions made by fallible human beings. For executives and boards, this is a powerful reminder: success is not guaranteed, and the decisions you make today will become tomorrow’s history. Just as past leaders faced wars, depressions, or technological disruption, modern executives face geopolitical risks, regulatory uncertainty, and fast-moving innovation. Learning from history is not optional; it is essential preparation.

McCullough also highlights the role of storytelling. Nations, organizations, and leaders who tell compelling stories about their mission inspire trust, attract talent, and build resilience. For global franchisors and executives, this insight underscores the importance of shaping a brand narrative that both honors its roots and adapts to new markets.

5 Takeaways for Global Business

Context matters – Decisions without historical perspective risk repeating past mistakes.

Resilience is timeless – Every era has crises; thriving requires persistence and adaptability.

Leadership is human – Imperfection is universal; great leaders learn and adjust.

Culture is strategic – Shared values sustain both nations and companies during uncertainty.

The past inspires the future – Stories of innovation and courage motivate bold action today

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Country & Regional Updates

Australia

“Australia’s post-China hangover – The country grew rich on Chinese demand. Now it must find a new model for growth. or years Australia benefited from a booming Chinese economy. Ships full of iron ore and coal streamed out of the country. They not only earned Australia foreign exchange but also held up wages, swelled tax revenues and brought a run of budget surpluses. Yet now those good times are over. China’s economy is slowing; commodity prices are falling. The numbers are bleak. Productivity growth slumped between 2019 and 2024: Australia now ranks second-last, ahead only of Mexico, according to the oecd, a club mostly of rich countries.”, The Economist, October 2, 2025

Brazil

“New Highs for Brazil’s Oil Production – Offshore oil discoveries bode well for its plans to become a top producer. According to data from Brazil’s hydrocarbon regulator, Brazil extracted an average of 4.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in June. This is the largest volume of hydrocarbons that Brazil, Latin America’s top oil producer, has ever pumped. Crude oil output also reached a new record of 3.8 million bpd. Oil discoveries in ultra-deep waters off Brazil’s coast bode well for its plans to become a top-five global oil producer. Brazil also expects to attract more than $120 billion in investment by 2029, primarily in its pre-salt oil fields, where the average breakeven cost is below $40 per barrel.”, Geopolitical Futures, October 3, 2025

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Canada

“Canada’s economy added 60,000 jobs in September, rebounding from two months of losses – The Canadian labour market snapped out of a funk in September, partially unwinding a spate of job losses over the summer. Employment prospects have been dinged by the U.S.-driven trade war, resulting in job losses in certain export industries and a cautious approach to hiring from employers.”, The Globe and Mail, October 10, 2025

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China

“China’s Green Push for the Global South – Domestic overproduction of green technologies means new markets need to be found. China’s focus on renewable energy is not driven by ideology but by economic interest and strategic competition. China has massively expanded its output of solar panels, batteries and wind turbines. Despite rapid domestic uptake, production outstrips demand at home, forcing Beijing to seek out new markets for export. By flooding global markets with cheap green hardware and pairing exports with financing, Beijing is turning the energy transition into a strategic export industry.”, Geopolitical Futures, October 10, 2025

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“Which Chinese regions are being hit hardest by US tariffs? Some Chinese provinces have recorded sharp drops in US exports amid the trade war. Others have seen shipments soar as much as 265%. As the trade war between the world’s two largest economies drags on, the impact is already showing: China’s exports to the United States were down 15.5 per cent year on year in the first eight months of 2025. But US tariffs are not affecting China equally. The country is made up of more than 30 provincial-level regions, and there is a wide divergence between these areas both in terms of their exposure to the US market and the effect of the trade war. China’s export hubs on the country’s eastern coastline dominate trade with the United States. Six coastal regions – Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Shandong and Fujian – together accounted for nearly 80 per cent of China’s exports to the US in value terms during the first seven months of 2025, according to CIB Research.”, South China Morning Post, September 19, 2025

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European Union

“Lagarde Sees ECB on Target With Growth Headwinds Fading Soon – Christine Lagarde said inflation remains close to the European Central Bank’s 2% target and expects the economy to pick up in 2026. Lagarde stated that sluggish export performance is expected to hold growth back for the remainder of the year, but the effect of these headwinds should fade next year. The ECB president suggested that the euro can become a global anchor of trust and raised the prospect of common EU debt, such as joint financing of public goods like defense. Addressing told European Union lawmakers in Strasbourg, she said that ‘sluggish export performance, driven by higher tariffs, a stronger euro and increased global competition, is expected to hold growth back for the remainder of the year.’”, Bloomberg, October 6, 2025

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India

“Two Billion-Dollar Debuts Test Strength of Hot India IPO Market – Tata Capital Ltd. and LG Electronics India Ltd. will begin trading in Mumbai after concluding two of the nation’s biggest initial public offerings this year. The two listings will test the strength of India’s equity capital market and underscore the country’s growing status as a global fundraising hub. The success of these offerings could set the tone for hundreds of firms waiting to go public in India and fuel optimism that proceeds from new Indian listings in 2025 could exceed last year’s record haul. The two listings underscore India’s growing status as a global fundraising hub, powered by deep domestic liquidity and an expanding retail investor base.”, Bloomberg, October 11, 2025

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United States

“Roughly half of U.S. states are effectively in a recession and ‘hanging on by their fingertips’ – Despite strong national figures—3.8% GDP growth and 4.3% unemployment—large parts of the U.S. are effectively in recession, according to Moody’s Analytics. Chief economist Mark Zandi exclusively told Fortune that 22 states are contracting and many lower- and middle-income households are “hanging on by their fingertips,” struggling with debt and slowing wage growth despite steady employment. Private data during the federal shutdown shows weakening consumer confidence, particularly among those earning under $35,000.”, Fortune, October 9, 2025

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Vietnam

“Vietnam Wins Emerging-Market Status From FTSE, Drawing Investor Optimism – The upgrade from frontier status puts Vietnam alongside peers such as China, Indonesia and India. Index provider FTSE Russell reclassified the Southeast Asian nation as a secondary emerging market, citing reforms that have brought its capital markets more in line with international standards. “The upgrade affirms that Vietnam has reached a key milestone in its development,’ Julius Baer equity research analyst Jen-Ai Chua said in a note. ‘This should drive more reforms.” DBS senior economist Chua Han Teng expects the change to help attract stronger foreign inflows.”, The Wall Street Journal, October 8, 2025

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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification

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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News

“Establishing Staying Power: Five Steps To Consider When Expanding Internationally – Expanding into international markets can be one of the most rewarding and strategic moves a franchise brand makes, but success isn’t measured at the ribbon-cutting. It’s measured in staying power. Sustained success abroad requires more than a strong launch. It demands deep local insight (primarily guided by your franchisee), long-term thinking (from both franchisor and franchisee), and the operational discipline to scale with consistency (franchisor to instill standards, then monitoring and supporting franchisee).”, Franchising.com, October 10, 2025. Article by Benjamin Simon is the regional vice president of international at Mathnasium.

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“Vietnam’s Pizza 4P’s to launch in New York City – Vietnamese restaurant chain Pizza 4P’s is set to make its US debut with a flagship location in Brooklyn, New York, marking a significant milestone in the company’s ongoing international expansion. Known for its farm-to-table philosophy and house-made cheese, the fast-growing restaurant group will take a distinctive blend of Japanese Omotenashi hospitality and artisanal pizza to one of the world’s most competitive dining markets. The Brooklyn opening will be Pizza 4P’s fifth international location, joining its presence in Japan, Cambodia, Indonesia, and India.”, Inside Retail Asia, October 2, 2025. Compliments of Jim Mayfield.

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“How Din Tai Fung Became America’s Top-Earning Restaurant Chain – The dumpling restaurant was started in Taiwan half a century ago. Now there are 17 always-packed locations in the US, including one in Disneyland. Din Tai Fung, a staple of international and California dining that arrived on America’s East Coast just over a year ago, generates an annual average of $27.4 million per US location, according to industry researcher Technomic—almost triple what high-end restaurant group Nobu pulls in. Headquartered in Taipei, Din Tai Fung is undeniably a global brand, with more than 165 locations worldwide and a cult following on multiple continents. In 2024 the chain opened restaurants in Singapore, Dubai, Phuket in Thailand, Manila, and one at Disneyland in Anaheim, California, in addition to an East Coast flagship in Manhattan. This year it added more than a dozen, including North American locations in Vancouver and Santa Monica, California.”, Bloomberg, October 6, 2025

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“Meet the finance duo behind Dave’s Hot Chicken’s $1 billion deal as Gen Z flocks to the brand – Fast-casual restaurant Dave’s Hot Chicken began as a $900 pop-up in a Los Angeles parking lot in 2017. Eight years later, the brand has expanded to over 345 stores worldwide—a remarkable rise from seven locations in early 2020. Known for its Nashville-style hot chicken, Dave’s attracted Atlanta-based private equity firm Roark Capital, which specializes in franchised businesses and acquired Subway in 2023. Roark owns two major restaurant holding companies: Inspire Brands (Dunkin’, Buffalo Wild Wings, Sonic) and GoTo Foods (Auntie Anne’s, Carvel, Cinnabon). Dave’s Hot Chicken was acquired by Roark this past summer for $1 billion and expects to reach 400 stores this year.”, Fortune, October 6, 2025

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“Dunkin’ Sells $900 Million of Bonds Backed By Franchise Fees – Dunkin’ Brands Group Inc. sold $900 million of bonds backed by the fees it gets from franchising its restaurants. The company will use the proceeds from the sale to repay the Class A-2-II portion of a similar bond it sold in 2019 and the outstanding amount of Class A-1 of a variable funding note in 2023. There have been 10 whole-business securitization sales this year, totaling about $7.4 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.”, Bloomberg, October 9, 2025

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To receive our biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

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www.edwardsglobal.com

And download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business, used by many companies for strategic planning, at this link:

Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking

Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 144, Tuesday, September 30, 2025

Posted on Sep 29th, 2025 in Asia Pacific, Europe, India, Miscellaneous, Predictions and Trends, Professional Development, World Culture, World Economy | Comments Off

“Plans cannot keep pace with change.” — Chinese Proverb

Welcome to the 144th Edition of the Global Business Update – This issue comes at a time when resilience and uncertainty are colliding in the global economy. The OECD has raised its growth outlook for 2025, noting that economies are performing better than expected—but also warned that new tariffs set for 2026 could slow global expansion to 2.9% from 3.2%. But trade policy uncertainty is at is highest level in at least 20 years. The message is clear: businesses must adapt quickly, because plans made today may not hold up tomorrow.

Trade disruptions are already reshaping supply chains. U.S. soybean exports to China have collapsed, with Beijing turning instead to Brazil, leaving American farmers squeezed. Meanwhile, Canada is bracing for an economic rebound in 2026, while simultaneously deepening its trade ties to Asia, with record cargo volumes at the Port of Vancouver.

China’s role continues to expand—installing more renewable power in seven months than the U.S. projects for the entire year and overtaking Japan and Germany as the world’s largest car exporter. Europe shows a split picture: Spain has become the continent’s standout growth economy, while consumer sentiment across the EU remains cautious. And AI is truly erupting in India!

Starbucks is restructuring, Shake Shack is opening in Vietnam, Guzman y Gomez is growing, and Elegant Hoopoe® is pioneering AI-driven wellness franchising with global ambitions. And McDonalds China will invest US$56 million to train 10,000 employees in 2025.

The stories in edition 144 illustrate both the risks and the opportunities for companies seeking growth abroad. As this edition makes clear, success in today’s global economy will not come from rigid plans but from adaptability, resilience, and a willingness to see change as opportunity.

This issue’s book review highlights “What Matters Next: A Leader’s Guide to Making Human-Friendly Tech Decisions in a World That’s Moving Too Fast by Kate O’Neill, a timely new book on how leaders can make technology decisions that are fast yet human-friendly. In a world where global business moves at breakneck speed, O’Neill offers practical tools for balancing urgency with foresight, and efficiency with humanity. It’s a framework that resonates strongly with today’s global challenges. As global business leaders, we can’t slow the pace of change—but we can choose to guide it responsibly. Ultimately, the book is a playbook to help leaders make tech-enabled change that is not only efficient but human‑friendly.

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Link to our current and past newsletters: https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“Plans cannot keep pace with change.” — Chinese Proverb

“In a fragmented world, the future belongs to those who build bridges, not walls.”, Inspired by Óscar Arias

“When you have exhausted all possibilities, remember this—you haven’t.”, Thomas Alva Edison

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Highlights in issue #144:

Resilient World Economy Set for Tariff Hit in 2026, OECD Says

Are You Ready To Spend 29 Hours On The World’s Longest Flight?

Which Cities Have the Most Expensive Rent in the World in 2025?

Canadian economy poised for upturn in 2026, but risks abound, Deloitte says in fall outlook

Why so many US fast food chains are expanding fast in Britain

Brand Global News Section: Elegant Hoopoe®, Guzman y Gomez®, McDonalds® China, Shake Shack® and Starbucks®

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“Resilient World Economy Set for Tariff Hit in 2026, OECD Says – The OECD said the global economy is still on course for a substantial blow from Donald Trump’s trade measures despite showing greater resilience than expected in recent months. The OECD raised its 2025 outlook for world growth and most individual economies, citing the impact of front-loading in anticipation of higher tariffs. The OECD expects global growth to drop to 2.9% from 3.2% in 2026 amid higher import duties and elevated uncertainty, with the full impact of the trade measures yet to be felt. In new forecasts published on Tuesday, the Paris-based organization raised its 2025 outlook for world growth and most individual economies, citing the impact of front-loading in anticipation of higher tariffs. The US also saw strong investment in artificial intelligence, while China benefited from fiscal support.”, Bloomberg, September 25, 2025

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“IMF 2025 Annual Report: Getting to Growth in an Age of Uncertainty – The global economy faces exceptional levels of uncertainty. The 2025 IMF Annual Report shows that low-income countries in particular, already strained by past shocks, risk falling further behind. Growth is the central challenge for all. And achieving it will require bold reforms at home and collaboration to address imbalances between countries.”, International Monetary Fund, LinkedIn, September 26, 2025

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“Which Cities Have the Most Expensive Rent in the World in 2025? Across major cities worldwide, the cost of rent has climbed sharply in recent years. Record-high housing prices, paired with a wave of remote workers moving into new markets, are reshaping rental dynamics. At the same time, limited supply is tightening conditions even further, compounding challenges for renters in countless regions. New York has the highest rental costs globally, averaging $4,100 in 2025. Over the past five years, rent has surged across European cities, sparking protests. Singapore has the highest rent in Asia, at $3,300 per month, given its role as a financial hub.”, Visual Capitalist & Deutsche Bank, September 19, 2025

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes, Tariffs & Trade Issues

“The U.S. Is Forfeiting the Clean-Energy Race to China – As President Trump doubles down on fossil fuels, the U.S. and China offer competing visions for the future of energy. The U.S. renewables retreat goes far beyond the tax bill that is winding down more than $400 billion in estimated subsidies. Federal agencies have tightened rules for new development. The rapid pace of EV adoption in China and elsewhere casts a long shadow over oil demand. Natural gas will be burned for decades, but increasingly competitive solar panels and batteries might sap how much of it the world will need. China installed 277 gigawatts of wind and solar capacity in the first seven months of the year, quadruple the utility-scale additions federal analysts in the U.S. project across all power sources for 2025.”, The Wall Street Journal, September 21, 2025

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“U.S. Importers Eye Refund Options as Tariff Fight Goes to Supreme Court – Uncertainty over the fate of President Trump’s duties spurs firms to see whether they could claw back billions of dollars. The Trump administration on Wednesday asked the Supreme Court to quickly hear its appeal of last week’s lower court ruling. The courts are weighing the legality of 10% baseline tariffs the Trump administration imposed this year on most trading partners, as well as steeper tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada.”, The Wall Street Journal, September 6, 2025

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“US soyabean farmers squeezed as China blocks imports and stockpiles rise – Overseas sales of top US export crop plummet as trade talks between Washington and Beijing stall. The new export season for soyabeans has opened with no sales or shipments to China, government data shows — a sharp break from a year ago, when it had already booked 6.5mn tons. For decades, more than half of all US soyabeans went to China, the world’s biggest buyer. But this year, as trade talks between Washington and Beijing stall, not a single American soyabean has headed east, leaving farmers struggling to stay afloat as bins fill and prices sag while China turns to record supplies from Brazil.”, The Financial Times, September 26, 2025

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Global & Regional Travel News

“US Travel Association Warns Government Shutdown Could Cost Industry Billions – With a government shutdown looming, the U.S. Travel Association is calling on lawmakers to avert the crisis, which could have ramifications for the travel economy and the traveling public. ‘A shutdown is a wholly preventable blow to America’s travel economy—costing $1 billion every week—and affecting millions of travelers and businesses while placing unnecessary strain on an already overextended federal travel workforce’. 60 percent of Americans said they would cancel or avoid trips by air in the event of a shutdown.”, Travel Pulse, September 25, 2025

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“Have foreign tourists really avoided America this year? Using monthly data on arrivals at all airports from America’s International Trade Administration, a government agency, The Economist finds that foreign arrivals at American airports are down by 3.8% compared with 2024, or 1.3m fewer people. The slump was steepest between May and July, when arrivals fell by 5.5% year on year. That bucked the global trend as tourism finally recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Travel and tourism make up around 3% of America’s gdp. But so far hotel operators have reported that higher spending by well-off domestic travellers has softened the blow.”, The Economist, August 26, 2025

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“Are You Ready To Spend 29 Hours On The World’s Longest Flight? China Eastern Airlines is launching twice-a-week service from Shanghai to Buenos Aires, with Boeing 777-300ER widebody aircraft. As today’s airliners are not capable of flying the full 12,299 mile distance without refueling, the direct flight will have a “technical stop” in Auckland, New Zealand. China Eastern described “The Shanghai Pudong-Auckland-Buenos Aires route.. as an important measure to build a new ‘Air Silk Road’ channel between Asia-Pacific and South America.” The flight will be “the world’s first commercial route connecting antipodal cities,” as Shanghai and Buenos Aires are literally on opposite sides of the earth. The southerly flight path will skirt Antarctica, flying over vast empty expanses of ocean.”, Forbes, September 27, 2025

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Book Review

What Matters Next: A Leader’s Guide to Making Human‑Friendly Tech Decisions in a World That’s Moving Too Fast by Kate O’Neill addresses the tensions leaders face in an era of rapid technological change: how to move decisively without abandoning human values. O’Neill argues that many tech decisions fail because they are made either too hastily (with unintended harmful consequences) or too slowly (letting opportunity slip or compounding risk). She introduces a conceptual framework to help navigate this balancing act.

Central to her approach is the Now‑Next Continuum, which treats decisions as part of a temporal spectrum rather than binary between “now” and “future.” Leaders are encouraged to shift from asking immediate “how” questions toward cultivating deeper insights and bankable foresights—that is, plausible projections grounded in evidence that can guide future actions. She also emphasizes through‑line thinking: tracing how current decisions connect to future outcomes, so that seemingly small choices aren’t disconnected from long‑term purpose.

O’Neill further explores the “Harms of Action vs. Harms of Inaction,” showing that both false starts and delays carry costs. Her idea of ethical acceleration encourages leaders to accelerate responsibly—moving neither recklessly nor inertly—by embedding human-centric values into innovation. She weaves in case examples, decision heuristics, and leadership mindset shifts that allow organizations to embed humanity (meaning, dignity, context) into technology strategies. Ultimately, the book is a playbook to help leaders make tech-enabled change that is not only efficient but human‑friendly.

5 Key Takeaways

Balance urgency with deliberation: Acting too quickly risks unintended consequences; waiting too long means missed opportunity. The sweet spot lies in “ethical acceleration,” where speed is tempered by foresight and values.

Think in continuums rather than binaries: The Now‑Next Continuum helps leaders avoid false dichotomies (e.g. “do now vs. wait”) by seeing decisions as nodes in a continuous trajectory.

Shift from “how” to “insight → foresight”: Rather than jumping to execution, begin with framing better questions, seeking insights, then developing “bankable foresights” that anchor future actions.

Trace through‑lines to connect decisions across time: Through‑line thinking ensures that short-term tech choices align with longer-term purpose, reducing disjointed or contradictory strategies.

Embed humanity in technology strategy: Use human values (meaning, dignity, context) as guardrails. For example: design systems that preserve agency, context, privacy, and human judgment rather than fully automating away human roles.

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Country & Regional Updates

Africa

“How Many Countries Fit in Africa? Visualizing the Continent’s True Size – The continent of Africa covers 11.7 million mi² (30.4 million km²), roughly equal to the size of 30 countries. These 30 include some of the world’s largest countries like the (contiguous) U.S., China, and India. However, the most common map projection, called the Mercator projection, makes Africa appear smaller than it actually is. For reference, Africa is the second-largest continent, both by size and population (1.6 billion people).”, Visual Capitalist & United Nations Statistics Division, September 20, 2025

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Canada

“Canadian economy poised for upturn in 2026, but risks abound, Deloitte says in fall outlook – After months of sluggish activity under U.S. tariffs, the economy is expected to rebound in 2026 as lower interest rates and federal spending take hold – provided the carve-outs that keep most exports tariff-free survive, a new economic outlook from Deloitte Canada shows. The country’s gross domestic product will grow 1.1 per cent in 2025 and 1.6 per cent next year, gaining momentum from falling borrowing costs, infrastructure spending and rising business investment, according to projections from Deloitte’s fall economic outlook.”, The Globe and Mail, September 29, 2025

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“Port of Vancouver handles record volumes as Canadian trade shifts toward Asia – The Port of Vancouver’s cargo volumes rose 13 per cent to set a record level of activity for the first six months this year as data show a trend toward Canada trading more with Asia and reducing reliance on the United States. The port’s midyear statistics show that it handled a record 85.4 million tonnes of cargo in the first six months of 2025, compared with 75.7 million tonnes for the same period last year. China is by far the largest trading partner with Canada at the West Coast port. China accounted for 25.4 million tonnes of exported and imported cargo in this year’s first half, up 25 per cent from the year-earlier period.”, The Globe and Mail, September 26, 2025

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China

“China drives to the top – China has rapidly become the world’s largest car exporter, fueled in part by a surge in electric vehicle (EV) sales, positioning China as a key global player. In 2019, the country exported 0.7 million cars, but by 2024, that number had risen to 5.5 million, surpassing Japan, Mexico, and Germany. EVs composed nearly 40 percent of China’s passenger vehicle exports in 2024 and nearly half in the first half of 2025.McKinsey & Co., September 23, 2025

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European Union

“An update on European consumer sentiment: Cautious, but gearing up for the holidays – Despite geopolitical and economic uncertainty, European consumer sentiment is holding steady heading into the holiday season—with spending intentions remaining in line with last year’s levels. Inflation remains the top concern for consumers, but its gradual stabilization in the eurozone has allowed many shoppers to maintain their holiday budgets. Across EU-5 nations, net consumer sentiment—the difference between optimism and pessimism—remains relatively unchanged compared to previous surveys. Stable inflation rates and a resilient job market are likely strong drivers for this trend. However, France stands out as the exception, experiencing a significant uptick in pessimism with minimal corresponding movement in optimism. In contrast, sentiment in the United States has been more volatile, though it remains higher than European levels.”, McKinsey & Co., September 5, 2025

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India

“AI is erupting in India – American firms are piling on users—and sucking up mountains of data. Sam altman is bullish about India. The co-founder of Openai, the firm behind Chatgpt, says the country’s adoption of artificial intelligence (ai) has been “unmatched anywhere in the world”. India is already Openai’s second-largest market by number of users and could soon be its biggest. For Indians, the battle promises cutting-edge ai tools at extremely low cost. For ai firms, the payoff may lie less in revenue than in reach: the chance to lock in hundreds of millions of users, and the torrents of data they create. The opportunities in India are staggering. The country has around 900m internet users; only China has more. But unlike China, India is open to American tech firms.”, The Economist, September 17, 2025

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Spain

“Spain has become Europe’s standout economy – But it must combine immigration-led growth with productivity improvements. Since the start of 2024, the Spanish economy has grown at an average annual rate of 3 per cent, compared with just over 1 per cent for the Eurozone as a whole. In recent weeks, S&P Global Ratings has upgraded its credit rating, and the Bank of Spain raised its 2025 growth forecast to 2.6 per cent — underscoring the nation’s position as Europe’s fastest-growing major economy, and one of the strongest in the advanced world. Tourism has recovered from the pandemic. The government has been spending grants from the EU’s Next Generation EU fund on improving infrastructure….Cheap renewable energy has also attracted foreign direct investment. Earlier reforms, including an initiative in 2021 to boost the stability of employment, have helped too. But Spain’s biggest motor has been immigration. While other European nations have been keen to tighten their borders, Spain has adopted a more liberal approach.”, The Financial Times, September 28, 2025

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United States

“Beneath the GDP, a Recession Warning – Business spending dropped sharply in the second quarter. Blame the trade war. Buried in last week’s BEA report is a much more reliable measure of the economy—gross output, or GO. It measures spending at all stages of production, totaling an estimated $63 trillion this year—more than twice GDP of $30 trillion. GO revealed that economic growth is slowing to a crawl, ahead only 1.2% in real terms. If you include all transactions in wholesale and retail trade, the adjusted GO is up only 0.3%. More important, overall business spending fell sharply, by an annualized 5.6% in real terms. These results are much more consistent with the weak labor-market data.”, The Wall Street Journal, September 28, 2025

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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification

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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News

Starbucks to close stores, lay off workers in $1 billion restructuring plan – Starbucks announced a $1 billion restructuring plan Thursday that involves closing some of its North American coffeehouses and laying off more workers. Approximately 900 non-retail employees will be laid off, Starbucks said. This is the second round of layoffs in Niccol’s tenure, after 1,100 corporate workers were let go earlier this year. The number of company-operated stores in North America will decline by about 1% in fiscal 2025, accounting for both openings and closures, the company said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. That figure translates to roughly 500 gross closures, according to TD Cowen estimates.”, CNBC, September 25, 2025

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“Shake Shack plans first restaurant in Vietnam for next year – It is expanding its partnership with licensee Maxim’s Caterers Limited, which already operates 52 Shake Shack locations in China, including Hong Kong and Macau, and Thailand. Maxim’s has a total of 2,000 outlets globally throughout China and Southeast Asia. Those include many concepts exclusive to Asia, but also The Cheesecake Factory and Lawry’s The Prime Rib, as well as Starbucks, of which it has coffeehouses in Hong Kong, Macau, Vietnam, Cambodia, Singapore, Thailand, and Laos, according to its web site.”, Nation’s Restaurant News, August 12, 2025

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“McDonalds China Hamburger University will invest 400 million yuan (US$56 million) in talent development over the next three years revealing its plan to train 10,000 people annually – As of now, there are 11 Hamburg universities around the world. Each year, nearly 10,000 trainees at McDonald’s China complete training at Hamburger University, and over 200,000 employees learn online. ‘When Hamburger University was founded in 2010, we had more than 1,000 restaurants across China. Today, we have over 7,400 restaurants, serving over 1.3 billion customers annually,’ said Zhang Jiayin, CEO of McDonald’s China.”, Yical, September 24, 2025. English translation and article compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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“Why so many US fast food chains are expanding fast in Britain – It’s not just McDonald’s: brands like Chick-fil-A, Denny’s and Chuck E Cheese plan to open more than a thousand outlets this year. What’s behind their appetite? Ten American firms with little or no presence in the UK have revealed plans for hundreds of outlets, on top of the 700 new diners announced by established brands such as McDonald’s and KFC. US companies have long seen the UK as the obvious first step in their plans for global expansion, in part because of Britain’s familiarity with American film and television.”, The Tines of London, September 21, 2025

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“Guzman y Gomez to open a dozen new stores by year’s end – Fast-growing Mexican food chain Guzman y Gomez plans to deliver on 40 per cent of its new store openings planned this financial year within the last three months of 2025 alone, with 12 new locations planned across VIC, NSW, QLD and the ACT. The company has revealed 12 of these will be between October and December, of which five will be corporate run and seven will be franchised as GYG welcomes five new franchisees. This compares to 11 new openings for the same period in 2024, as the group works towards a rhythm of 40 new store openings annually in Australia while it strives to hit a footprint of 1,000 locations over the long term. The current store count is more than 250.”, Business news Australia, September 23, 2025

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“Elegant Hoopoe unveils AI-powered wellness franchise targeting $1.5 trillion global wellness market with expansion to over 200 clinics – Hoopoe Holding, the first AI-powered, IP-protected wellness franchise, is rapidly progressing toward its ambitious global expansion targeting 200+ clinics worldwide under its elegant hoopoe brand, positioning itself to capture a significant share of the $1.5 trillion global wellness economy. The UK has been identified as the primary European launch market, with advanced discussions underway with capital partners and operators across the USA, Canada, France, Germany, Switzerland, and Italy.”, TMC Net News, September 23, 2025

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