EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 109, Tuesday, May 28, 2024
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)
Comments About This 109th Issue: This extended issue covers trend and happenings in Argentina, Australia, China, Europe, Germany, the GCC countries, India, Japan, Singapore, the United Kingdom and the United States. Scroll down to find out how ‘Swiftonomics’ seems to have helped the Singapore economy. Who are the world’s most valuable soccer (football) teams? Should airlines stop meal service when the seatbelt sign is on? Emerging markets are pushing back at China’s subsidized exports. And for us world travelers, what are the most dangerous cities in the world?
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with any questions, comments and contributions.
Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896
The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.
First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive, but those who can best manage change.” ― Leon C. Megginson
“All failure is failure to adapt, all success is successful adaptation.” ― Max McKeown
“The secret to living well and longer is: eat half, walk double, laugh triple and love without measure.”, Tibetan Proverb
Highlights in issue #109:
- Brand Global News Section: Burger King®, Carl’s Jr®, Dominos®, KFC®, McDonalds® and Wendy’s®
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“The Top 6 Economies by Share of Global GDP (1980-2024) – Over time, the distribution of global GDP among the world’s largest economies has shifted dynamically, reflecting changes in economic policies, technological advancements, and demographic trends. To see how this has played out in recent decades, we visualized the world’s top six economies by their share of global GDP from 1980 to 2024. All figures were sourced from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (April 2024 edition) and are based on using current prices.”, Visual Capitalist, IMF, May 14, 2024
“Google Is About to Change the Whole Internet — Again…The company’s all-in investment in AI. Will search engines be replaced by AI chatbots? In May, the company offered some clarity: ‘In the next era of search, AI will do the work so you don’t have to,’ according to a video announcing that AI Overviews, Google’s new name for AI-generated answers, would soon be showing up at the top of users’ results pages. The popular notion that the AI boom represents a disruptive threat to the internet giants deserves more skepticism than it’s gotten so far — the needs of the tech industry past, present, and future are neatly and logically aligned.”, New Yorker, May 19, 2024
“The world’s economic order is breaking down – Critics will miss globalisation when it is gone. The dysfunction at the WTO (World Trade Organization) is emblematic of a world where the institutions and rules intended to foster international trade and investment are falling into abeyance. Every day brings alarming new headlines. The European Union, although supposedly both more supportive of free trade and more determined to reduce its greenhouse-gas emissions than other economic powers, is on the verge of imposing duties on Chinese electric vehicles. The proliferation of subsidies and sanctions is one of the most obvious signs of the unravelling of the “international rules-based order”, as policy wonks like to call it.”, The Economist, May 9, 2024
“The World’s Most Valuable Soccer Teams 2024 – The average team is now worth $2.3 billion, a 5.1% increase from a year ago—despite headwinds in TV rights across Europe. When Sir Jim Ratcliffe, the billionaire founder and CEO of the Ineos chemical group, bought 27.7% of Manchester United in February for an enterprise value of $6.5 billion, it was the richest price ever paid for sports team in which the buyer also got operating rights. Real Madrid generated the most revenue ($873 million) of any team and has won the Champions League five of the past nine years. Despite the speed bump in European broadcasting revenue, the average soccer team is now worth $2.3 billion, a 5.1% increase from a year ago. Forbes, May 23, 2024
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“A New Trade War Offers No Easy Way Back for Old Global Order – Rules-based trade fades as policies cement protectionism. Once a free-market cheerleader, US borrows from China playbook. The world’s three dominant economies are entering a new, combative phase as the US increasingly uses trade weapons borrowed from China’s playbook. That’s threatening to deepen international fractures and to challenge decades of free-market orthodoxy — and it leaves Europe with big decisions to make. The $31 trillion arena of international commerce has withstood a series of shocks in recent years, including the US-China trade war. This time, the linchpin is the European Union — caught between preserving its self-styled role as defender of multilateral rules and fearing the loss of millions of jobs and tens of billions in investment while the US and China wield market-distorting subsidies and tariffs.”, Bloomberg, May 23, 2024
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“Shipping rates spike as businesses expect more Red Sea attacks – Companies prepare to ship goods for festive season early as attacks by Yemen’s Houthis force ships to take longer route. The average cost of shipping a 40ft container between the Far East and northern Europe at short notice, the figure that is most sensitive to market prices, hit $4,343 last week, roughly three times higher than the same period last year, according to freight market tracker Xeneta.”, The Financial Times, May 25, 2024
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“US East Coast Ports Are Spending Billions to Profit From Asia’s Shifting Exports– Savannah and Brunswick in Georgia are looking to win business away from Pacific Coast rivals. As more export production destined for the US migrates to South Asia from China, the geographic edge is tilting toward the East Coast, which boasts quicker deliveries through the Suez Canal and across the Atlantic from such countries as India and Sri Lanka. Savannah also stands to benefit from a host of domestic factors, including the US population shift to Sun Belt boom states.”, Bloomberg, May 14, 2024
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Global & Regional Travel
“Singapore Airlines turbulence: stopping meal service may not reduce risk to passengers, Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific union says – Paul Weatherilt, chairman of the Hong Kong Aircrew Officers Association, told the Post on Saturday tightening cabin service rules could bring about undesirable results and the best way to prevent injuries during flights was to require passengers to keep their seat belts fastened at all times.
‘I’m not convinced that stopping the [meal] service will necessarily change anything, and I think it is possible that it could have a counterproductive effect,’ he said. Weatherilt said Singapore Airlines’ rule revisions could make cabin crew hesitant to put the seat belt sign on, while meal service might not be halted quickly enough as it took time to retrieve the food carts.”, The South China Morning Post, May 25, 2024
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“Most Dangerous Cities in the World 2024 – You can yield a little less caution in some of the world’s safest countries, such as Iceland, New Zealand, and Portugal. With over 4,416 cities in the world, there are seemingly endless places to travel to and cultures to experience around the world. The world’s 50 most dangerous cities are located in 11 countries: Brazil, Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Puerto Rico, South Africa, the United States, and Venezuela. Brazil has the most cities on the list with 17, followed by Mexico with 12. Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela are the only countries with cities in the top ten most dangerous cities. Mexico has five cities, Brazil has three, and Venezuela has two.”, World Population Review, May 2024
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Country & Regional Updates
South Africa
“South African Assets Primed for Post-Election Rally, but Old Challenges Persist – Rally has room to run after poll, Bloomberg survey finds Most investors overweight or neutral on South Africa. There’s a widespread belief among investors that stocks, bonds and the rand will keep soaring after the May 29 election, especially as record-hitting commodity prices boost the exports that South Africa’s economy relies on. In a Bloomberg survey of 26 emerging-market investors, most were overweight or neutral on South Africa, and said they preferred the country over investing in Egypt or Nigeria, Africa’s two other powerhouses.”, Bloomberg, May 23, 2024
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Argentina
“The State of Argentina’s ‘Transformation’ – Milei’s government has been more pragmatic than it said it would be. One of the public’s biggest complaints is the decline of purchasing power, which owes to inflation brought on by the government’s decision to lift market controls. Private employees fared significantly better than public employees, with respective decreases of 11.2 percent and 21.3 percent. More concerning is that in the past six months, the country’s minimum wage has lost 29 percent of its purchasing power, pushing more people into poverty. Argentina’s Pontifical Catholic University estimates that the poverty rate now stands at 57 percent. While better insulated from economic shock, even the country’s upper class has started to feel the pinch as inflation outpaces favorable exchange rates and a sharp decline in disposable income.”, Geopolitical Futures, May 24, 2024
Australia
“Australian wine pours back into China as tariff-free shipments surge to over US$10 million in April – With import tariffs removed for the first time in three years, shipments of Australian wine to China surged in April, with analysts expecting producers to jump back into the lucrative market “quite quickly”. China imported US$10.4 million of wine from Australia in April, up from US$126,045 a year earlier, representing a roughly eightyfold increase, according to Chinese customs data. Imports by volume, meanwhile, increased more than sevenfold year on year to 462,518 litres (813,918 pints).”, The South China Morning Post, May 23, 2024
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China
“Brazil, India and Mexico are taking on China’s exports – To avoid an economic shock, they are pursuing a strange mix of free trade and protectionism. ‘The biggest threat of Chinese overcapacity is to developing countries,’ says Jorge Guajardo, Mexico’s former ambassador to China. In his country, which is proud of its car industry, the market share of Chinese-made vehicles has grown from next to nothing in 2016 to a fifth. Emerging economies are thus introducing import restrictions on Chinese goods, while accelerating a push for free trade elsewhere. This emerging-market attempt to lower trade barriers with the West is happening at the same time as they are being raised with China. Officials see this as necessary to protect domestic manufacturers until China’s subsidy wave subsides.”, The Economist, May 24, 2024
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“The United States used to have cachet in China. Not anymore. ‘Soft power’ is even more important during times of sharp words and military bluster, but the cultural appeal of American culture and ideas has waned in China. America, which is called “Meiguo” or “beautiful country” in Chinese, was the bastion of wealth and ease. Now, Chinese media and commentators mockingly refer to the United States not as “Meiguo” but as “Meidi” — “the beautiful imperialist.” And Chinese shoppers are more likely to be sipping a drink from Luckin, a Chinese coffee chain, than Starbucks or lining up all night to buy Huawei’s Mate 60 Pro than the latest Apple device. “, The Washington Post, May 25, 2024
Europe
“Has Europe already reached its demographic tipping point? – The EU’s population is shrinking faster than expected, putting strain on government finances and the bloc’s long-term prospects. The EU population rose in the year to January 2023, helped by an influx of displaced persons from Ukraine, after a temporary two-year dip that reflected the impact of the pandemic. Last year, Eurostat forecast that the population would peak at 453mn in 2026. But the 2023 numbers came in below expectations as EU births fell to levels Eurostat had not forecast for another two decades, suggesting the peak may come before 2026. What is becoming clear is that the EU’s long-predicted demographic inversion appears to be coming sooner than many experts predicted.”, The Financial Times, May 23, 2024
“Europe’s New Power Map, From ASML to the Arctic – Places other than Paris, Brussels and Berlin are wielding economic influence. The power wielded by ASML (the Netherlands) from its campus in Veldhoven is one example of how Europe’s geographyis changing. French munitions factories and Italian shipyards are whirring as the war in Ukraine forces defense matters to front of mind. Chip factories are being built in cities that still bear the scars of World War II. Kalundborg, production hub for Ozempic maker Novo Nordisk A/S, is turning Denmark into a one-company country. Sweden is tapping raw-material deposits essential for the green transition; Finland is converting paper mills into supercomputers.”, Bloomberg, May 14, 2024
Germany
“German economy expands slightly in first quarter of 2024 – The final estimate for Germany’s quarter-on-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) report for Q1 2024 came out on Friday morning. It revealed that GDP grew by 0.2%, according to the Federal Statistical Office. This was a surge from the previous quarter’s -0.5% and in line with analyst estimates. This increase was mainly due to a jump in gross fixed capital formation, which rose to 1.2% in the first quarter of the year, from -2.1% in Q4 2023, primarily driven by advances in construction investment.”, Euronews, May 24, 2024
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries
“Industries with huge potential: Saudi and the Gulf – As the world rapidly evolves, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman, are actively diversifying their economies and investing in innovative industries poised for growth. From harnessing renewable energy to pioneering artificial intelligence (AI) and architecting awe-inspiring structures, these nations are carving their paths toward a prosperous and sustainable future. Here are some of the industries that are poised to thrive in the future.”, Middle East Sunday Pages, May 19, 2024. Compliments of Corina Goetz
India
“Global firms are tapping India’s workers like never before – They want their brains more than their brawn. Back in the 1990s global firms such as General Electric, a once-mighty conglomerate, began to rely on Indian workers to perform tedious tasks such as filling in forms and patching software for mainframe computers. More recently, technologies such as cloud computing and video conferencing have made it less cumbersome to tap India’s vast pool of brainy workers. Having learned how to supervise employees remotely through the covid-19 pandemic, plenty of bosses will have now pondered whether some roles could be done from farther afield.”, The Economist, May 23, 2024
Japan
“How Japan Thinks about Energy Security – Energy security is a significant challenge for Japan. As an import-dependent country, Japan has sought to protect itself from fossil fuel supply disruptions and shocks by cultivating strong relationships with exporting countries and investing throughout the energy value chain. When the Biden administration “paused” approvals of new U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects, the strongest international reaction was not in Europe—the destination for most U.S. LNG cargoes since 2022—but in Japan. Japanese officials registered concerns about potential restrictions on future gas supply.”, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), May 22, 2024
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Singapore
“Taylor Swift and Coldplay concerts may have saved Singapore’s economy from shrinking last quarter – ‘Swiftonomics’ could have helped drag Singapore’s economy across the finish line. The Southeast Asian country banked on several high-profile events—most notably concerts by superstar Taylor Swift—to jump-start tourism spending. Some 4.36 million visitors arrived in Singapore in the first three months of the year, according to data from the Singapore Tourism Board. The average hotel occupancy rate for that period was 81.49%, compared with 77.8% for the same period in 2023. Half the audience for both the Coldplay and Taylor Swift concerts came from overseas, according to the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
United Kingdom
“The five key business issues the next government needs to address – Whether Labour or the Conservatives win the election, they will have momentous decisions to take. With Rishi Sunak having fired the starting gun for a snap general election for July 4, business is moving quickly to lobby the political parties on key reforms that boardrooms want from the next government. During the next six weeks of campaigning, leading business groups representing large parts of the economy will promote their own manifestos, having consulted with member companies, including some of the country’s biggest employers. The British Chambers of Commerce, the Federation of Small Businesses, UK Finance and Make UK are all due to publish blueprints.”, The Times of London, May 24, 2024
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United States
“ (U.S.) Consumer Confidence Dips In April – Consumer confidence was down in April. Consumers expressed concerns about the job market, nonessential spending, and their ability to make ends meet, according to the Numerator Consumer Sentiment Tracker that captures more than 6,000 responses a month and provides a comprehensive monthly view of consumer confidence, spending and saving considerations, and future financial outlook. The April Consumer Confidence Score was 56.9 (-0.4 vs. March), which is an average of how consumers feel about the job market, their household finances, and their spending comfort levels.”, Franchising.com, May 25, 2024
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“ (U.S.) Small Business Owners Feel Inflationary Pressures – New survey data from Goldman Sachs’ 10,000 Small Businesses Voices finds that business owners across the country are reporting significant inflationary impacts on the costs of doing business. Compared to three months ago, 71% say inflationary pressures have increased on their businesses, and 49% say they’ve had to raise the prices on their goods or services over that period.”, Franchising.com, May 24, 2024
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Brand & Franchising News
“Burger King-parent RBI completes Carrols acquisition – Company buys largest U.S. franchisee and plans $500M investment in reimaging 600 restaurants. Restaurant Brands International Inc. has completed its acquisition of Carrols Restaurant Group Inc., its largest Burger King franchisee in the United States, for about $1 billion and plans to invest an additional $500 million to reimage 600 Carrols restaurants, the company said Thursday. Toronto, Canada-based Restaurant Brands International, which offered $9.55 a share in the all-cash transaction that was announced in January, said the $500 million reimaging was part of its “Reclaim the Flame” plan, announced in fall 2022.”, Nation’s Restaurant News, May 16, 2024
“Carl’s Jr. to Expand into the U.K. and the Republic of Ireland under a New Master License Agreement with Boparan Restaurant Group – Under this agreement, BRG will open, operate, and franchise restaurants throughout the territory as the exclusive Carl’s Jr. developer. This partnership further solidifies Carl’s Jr.’s European presence which includes nearly 100 restaurants across Spain, France, Denmark, Turkey, and Switzerland.”, PRNewswire, May 22, 2024
“Wendy’s sold to global restaurant management firm Flynn – The New Zealand business of burger restaurant chain Wendy’s has been sold to US franchise operator Flynn Group, marking the company’s first change in ownership in more than three decades. The Lendich family, which has operated the franchise since 1988, put it up for sale in June 2022. The franchise includes 22 restaurants with 12 stores in Auckland, eight in other parts of the North Island, and two on the South Island.”, InsideRetail, May 21, 2024
“Anti-Israel Boycotts Hurting McDonald’s, KFC in Asia, Mideast – McDonald’s saw impact in Middle East, Muslim countries Pakistani can maker to Coca Cola, Pepsi had 11% sales dip. The situation has inflamed tensons in the Middle East that has led to an outpouring of support for Palestinians. Many Muslims in the region changed their consumption habits since the war started, slashing demand for fast food from American retailers. More than 100 KFC outlets in Malaysia were forced to close temporarily. Malaysian operator QSR Brands (M) Holdings Bhd. appealed to its large Muslim consumer base that it has over 18,000 team members in the country, of which, approximately 85% were Muslims.”, Bloomberg, May 24, 2024
“Jubilant FoodWorks Poised for Massive Expansion – Jubilant FoodWorks Ltd (JFL), the master franchisee of Domino’s Pizza in India and several other markets, with a market capitalization of INR 31,517 crore, announced plans on Wednesday to significantly expand its store network. The company aims to increase its Domino’s Pizza outlets from 2,793 to over 5,500 across six global markets in the medium term. JFL operates in India, Turkey, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. Last year, its subsidiary, Jubilant Foodworks (NS:JUBI) Netherlands BV (JFN), acquired DP Eurasia, the master franchisee of Domino’s in Turkey and Georgia, thus expanding JFL’s footprint beyond Asia.”, Investing, May 22, 2024
“The Food Court Is Back – Attention, mall shoppers: Restaurants are taking up more retail space. It’s good news for fixtures like Cinnabon and bubble tea shops. Floor space in malls as in-store shopping declines and consumers seek experiences rather than goods, says Emily Arft, an analyst at Green Street, a real estate research firm. Formats are changing: “A lot of landlords are thinking about making a more cohesive retail experience where you have dining throughout, not just in one dedicated center,” Arft says. Still, that’s been good for food court newcomers and stalwarts, including everyone’s favorite auntie.”, Bloomberg, May 17, 2024
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries.
William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.
For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business global successfully, click on the QR code or contact Bill Edwards at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com or +1 949 224 3896.
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EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 107, Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)
Comments About This 107th Issue: AI tools, global patents and developments around the world. Political stability in Italy. Global coal production continues to rise. International business travel is definitely back. And business news from Argentina, Canada, China, Italy, Mexico, New Zealand, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the USA.
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with any questions, comments and contributions.
Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896
The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.
First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge”, Stephen Hawking and Daniel J. Boorstin
“We make a living by what we get. We make a life by what we give.”, Winston Churchill. Compliments of Neil Sahota
“You are never too old to set another goal or to dream a new dream.” — C.S. Lewis
Highlights in issue #107:
- Brand Global News Section: Red Lobster®, Snap Fitness® and Tropical Smoothie®
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“Vistage U.S. Small Business Index – Each month, we share the insights of small businesses with the understanding that the sentiment captured in the WSJ/Vistage Small Business CEO Confidence Index predicts economic changes. This month, we see a slight decline in the overall Index, but the trend remains above last year.”, Vistage, April 24, 2024
“I Tried These AI-Based Productivity Tools. Here’s What Happened – Hoping to make life easier, I tested six AI-powered tools meant to help me write better and work smarter. Every writer I know is talking about AI tools and whether they’re ethical to use. But what’s just as interesting to me is why we’re so enamored with them even if they produce outrageous or below-average results. Why do we chase the shiny new thing even if it’s not better, faster, or cheaper? This year my LinkedIn feed has been full of posts touting the best new AI tools for doing absolutely everything, and I’ve already fallen for too many new thing even if it’s not better, faster, or cheaper?”, Wired magazine, April 2024
“Where Women Are Most Likely To Be Your Boss – The latest data from 2022 and 2023 shows that in Burkina Faso and Nigeria, between 67% and 70% of all managers are women. Jamaica and Botswana are the only other countries with available data listing more female than male managers, at around 60% and 52%, respectively. More countries with a high share of women in managerial positions are the Philippines and Caribbean island nation Saint Lucia as well as Jordan and Zambia. The share of female managers is also high in Eastern Europe at almost 42% as of 2022, North America at around 40%, Southeast Asia at around 39% and Northern Europe at approximately 38%. The MENA region had the lowest share of managers who are women at just over 15%. Yet, Jordan is featured among the countries with the most female managers, again due to female-centric fields.”, Forbes, April 23, 2024
“AI Patents By Country – This infographic shows the number of AI-related patents granted each year from 2010 to 2022 (latest data available). These figures come from the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET), accessed via Stanford University’s 2024 AI Index Report. From this data, we can see that China first overtook the U.S. in 2013. Since then, the country has seen enormous growth in the number of AI patents granted each year. In 2022, China was granted more patents than every other country combined. While this suggests that the country is very active in researching the field of artificial intelligence, it doesn’t necessarily mean that China is the farthest in terms of capability.”, Visual Capitalist, April 24, 2024
“How People Are Really Using GenAI – There are many use cases for generative AI, spanning a vast number of areas of domestic and work life. Looking through thousands of comments on sites such as Reddit and Quora, the author’s team found that the use of this technology is as wide-ranging as the problems we encounter in our lives. The 100 categories they identified can be divided into six top-level themes, which give an immediate sense of what generative AI is being used for: Technical Assistance & Troubleshooting (23%), Content Creation & Editing (22%), Personal & Professional Support (17%), Learning & Education (15%), Creativity & Recreation (13%), Research, Analysis & Decision Making (10%).” Harvard Business Review, March 19, 2024
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“Global operating coal power capacity increased 2% in 2023 and 11% since 2015. 2,130 gigawatts (GW) operating coal power capacity. An increase of 217 GW coal power capacity since 2015. And 578 GW new coal power capacity currently under development.”, Global Energy Monitor, January 2024
“Asia Has a Strong Dollar Problem Stretching Far Beyond Japan – Strong dollar means Asian central banks likely to delay easing Swaps suggest dovish bets for Korea, Malaysia scaled back. Investors are looking for the next policy domino to fall in Asia amid an escalating campaign against a resurgent dollar, after Indonesia used a surprise interest rate hike to defend the rupiah. The currencies of Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines and India are all trading within sight of multi-year lows, raising the odds for local authorities to take firmer action to stem the slide. Won and ringgit swaps, for example, are already pricing in a less dovish stance by the two local central banks.”, Bloomberg, April 24, 2024
“Suez trade plunges after war forces ships to reroute – Containers’ trip round Cape of Good Hope adds 20 days to journey. A substantial share of containers pass through the Red Sea, carrying everything from commodities to consumer goods. An escalation in tensions in the region prompted carriers to reroute their vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. The ONS said there had been an annual 57 per cent increase in the number of ships passing through the alternative and longer trade route……the average price of a container has leapt to $2,719 in April from $1,390 in early October, although that is down from a recent peak of nearly $4,000 in January and nowhere near the levels hit in the aftermath of the pandemic.”, The Times of London, April 25
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Global & Regional Travel
“Hilton Sees Full Corporate Travel Rebound in Hotel Stays in 2024 – Hilton has ridden high on a surging wave of vacationers. But executives at the hotel giant now see the return of corporate trips and conferences as powering the next phase of its growth. Executives predicted Wednesday that occupancy by corporate road warriors and conference-goers would fully recover to pre-pandemic levels soon. ‘By the end of the year from a demand point of view, we think there’s an awfully good chance that BT [business travel] will get there, too,’ said Christopher Nassetta, president and CEO. ‘Just given continued growth in the big corporates and very resilient SMB [small-and-medium-sized] businesses.’”, Skift, April 24, 2024
“Welcome Back, Road Warriors: Business Travel Returns – Airlines, hotels say work trips are rebounding to near prepandemic levels—‘they’re hungry to meet in person’. Videoconferencing hasn’t made in-person meetings obsolete. Scattered workforces have in some cases resulted in more trips, not fewer. Companies are sending employees back on the road again, driving business travel closer to prepandemic levels. The banks, tech companies and consultants who are among the travel industry’s most lucrative customers are hitting the road again. Airlines reported big increases in revenues from corporate accounts in the first quarter, with Delta and United both reporting a 14% bump from a year ago.”, The Wall Street Journal, April 28, 2024
“India’s Hotel Boom: Latest Investments from Marriott, Hilton and Other Chains – The world’s biggest hotel chains are doubling down on India, betting that the country’s rising affluence will fuel a surge in travel demand for years to come. In the past six weeks, all the global hotel groups — including Marriott International and Hilton Worldwide — have unveiled ambitious expansion plans in India. They see a golden opportunity to establish a bigger foothold on the subcontinent in what may become the world’s third-largest economy as soon as 2027.”, Skift, April 27, 2024
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Country & Regional Updates
Africa
“For Multinationals, Africa’s Allure Is Fading – After decades of optimism about the region, global giants such as Bayer, Nestlé and Unilever are cutting back. Drawn by rapid growth, youthful populations and increasing wealth, legions of top multinationals rushed into Africa in recent decades. But lately, the difficulties of doing business there—cratering currencies, overweening bureaucracies, unreliable power and congested ports—have dimmed the allure. ‘It doesn’t justify the effort,’ says Kuseni Dlamini, a former chairman of Walmart Inc.’s African unit who now heads the American Chamber of Commerce in South Africa.”, Bloomberg, April 16, 2024
Argentina
“Argentina President Announces First Quarterly Fiscal Surplus in 16 Years – Argentina reached a fiscal surplus of 0.2% of gross domestic product due to severe spending cuts and the halting of public works, marking the country’s first quarterly fiscal surplus since 2008. Since taking office in December 2023, Milei’s government has focused on spending cuts and freezes to reduce the country’s very high inflation rates. While the plan is working, inflation is falling at the cost of a severe reduction in Argentines’ purchasing power, leading to a contraction in economic activity.”, Stratfor Worldview, April 23, 2024
Canada
“Canada’s per capita output drops 7% below trend – To return to trend over the next decade, real gross domestic product per capita would need to grow at an average annual rate of 1.7 per cent – similar to the robust expansion in the United States in recent years. Real GDP per capita has fallen to levels seen in 2017. For decades, Canada has struggled with lacklustre capital investment. A Statscan report published in February noted that investment per worker in 2021 was 20 per cent lower than in 2006.”, The Globe and Mail, April 24, 2024
China
“China’s consumers seek security in ‘the only safe asset’ as gold purchases remain strong – Consumers in China bought 308.9 tonnes (10.9 million ounces) of gold in the first quarter, representing a 5.9 per cent increase compared with the same period in 2023, according to data released by the China Gold Association on Friday. ‘Gold represents the only safe asset for [Chinese consumers] to protect their wealth against domestic inflation, asset price declines as well as against geopolitical risks,’ said Chen Zhiwu, the chair professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong. ‘I expect Chinese household demand for gold to rise more in the future. And the Chinese central bank will also continue to purchase more gold to prepare for more geopolitical turmoil ahead.’”, The South China Morning Post, April 29, 2024
“Why China Keeps Making More Cars Than It Needs – China has the capacity to produce roughly two times as many cars as it sells at home each year. Despite overcapacity, government officials keep supporting automakers. China has a long history of auto overcapacity, with more than 100 domestic brands churning out more vehicles than the country’s drivers buy each year. China currently has the capacity to produce some 40 million vehicles a year, though it sells only around 22 million cars domestically, according to capacity data from Shanghai-based strategy firm Automobility and sales figures from the China Passenger Car Association.”, The Wall Street Journal, April 28, 2024
Italy
“Political stability gives Italy a chance to step into the spotlight – Historically, Italy’s political scene has been highly mercurial. But is it possible that politics in Rome is, dare it be said, boring now? Not exactly. Still, today’s political dynamics in Italy are not what international observers, or even Italians, may be used to. True, the country’s economic prospects remain weak, but Italy is living through a period of relative political stability under the government of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. This stability makes Italy well placed to push forward its foreign policy priorities and leadership.”, The Atlantic Council, April 24, 2024
Mexico
“Why tech firms are investing in Mexico – As the US seeks to decrease its dependence on China, investments in Mexico are making the country a hot destination for AI hardware. Amidst an ongoing chip war between the US and China, investments in Mexico are making the country a hot destination for hardware manufacturing in the AI space. At the request of AI companies in the US, Taiwan-based companies are ramping up production efforts in Mexico….A 2020 free-trade agreement between the US, Mexico, and Canada has brought in billions from manufacturing companies “aiming to move operations from China to Mexico.”, IT Brew, April 24, 2024
Turkey
“Turkey’s ‘Orthodox’ Pivot Makes Lira a Favorite for HSBC – Turkey’s return to a more conventional approach to monetary policy is boosting investor confidence, setting the stage for capital inflows and underpinning HSBC Holdings Plc’s bullish stance on the nation’s assets. Raising the benchmark interest rate and “normalizing” monetary policy have been at the center of a policy overhaul. Officials have previously said they see Turkish headline inflation peaking at around 75% in the coming months.”, Bloomberg, April 24, 2024
United Kingdom
“Canary Wharf dangles £150m to convince Morgan Stanley to stay put – After exits of high-profile companies, owner of financial district agreed to pay towards refurbishment costs to keep US bank as a tenant. In return, the US bank has removed a break clause, in effect committing to its European headquarters until 2038; its lease had originally been due to expire in 2028. Canary Wharf has become a poster child for the turmoil in the office market, which has been hit hard by rises in interest rates and fears over the impact of flexible working. The decisions of both HSBC and law firm Clifford Chance to ditch their offices at Canary Wharf for buildings in the City have handed more negotiating power to the estate’s remaining tenants.”, The Times of London, April 27, 2024
“UK Recovery Gains Pace as PMI Beats Forecast – PMI composite gauge rises to 11-month high of 54 in April Pound rises as traders reduce wagers on scope for rate cuts. The UK economy’s recovery from recession unexpectedly gathered pace at the start of the second quarter as private-sector firms reported the strongest growth in almost a year.
S&P Global’s purchasing managers’ index rose to a stronger-than-expected 54 in April, an 11-month high and a jump from 52.8 the previous month. The pound rose. Firms responded by boosting hiring by the most for nine months. They also reported the strongest cost pressures in 11 months, particularly from staff wages after a near 10% in the minimum wage took effect in April.”, Bloomberg, April 23, 2024
United States
“The US is one of the least trade-oriented countries in the world – despite laying the groundwork for today’s globalized system – In 2022, the U.S. trade-to-GDP ratio was 27%, according to the World Bank. That means the total value of U.S. imports and exports of goods and services combined equaled 27% of the country’s GDP. That’s far below the global average of 63%. In fact, of the 193 countries examined by the World Bank, only two were less involved in international trade than the U.S. Those were Nigeria, at 26%, and Sudan at 3%. Most world economic powers scored considerably higher, with Germany at 100%, France at 73%, the U.K. at 70%, India at 49%, and China at 38%.”, The Conversation, April 25, 2024
“US Goes From Soft Landing Back to Sticky Inflation – While the economy is still humming along by most metrics, gross domestic product slowed in the first quarter and the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation—the core personal consumption expenditures price index—rose in March (though in line with expectations). The Fed’s expected delay in cutting rates is rippling across world economies and markets—from equities to bonds and forex.”, Bloomberg, April 27, 2024
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Brand & Franchising News
“Blackstone to buy Tropical Smoothie Cafe in $2B deal – Levine Leichtman agrees to sell Atlanta-based 1,400-unit fast-casual brand. Blackstone said the deal for Atlanta-based fast-casual Tropical Smoothie Café LLC would be ‘the first transaction from Blackstone’s most recent vintage of its flagship private-equity vehicle’. Tropical Smoothie Cafe was founded in Destin, Fla., in 1997, and has grown to more than 1,400 locations in 44 states. It added 175 new restaurants in 2023, with 70% of those from existing franchisees, Blackstone said.”, Nation’s Restaurant News, April 24, 2024
“Fair deal for franchisees as Government announces visa changes – A change to the Accredited Employer Work Visa (AEWV) scheme announced today will mean the special franchisee accreditation category will be disestablished. Franchisees will be able to apply to bring in workers from overseas through the standard, high-volume, or triangular employment accreditation. The change, effective immediately, means that franchisees will no longer pay more for accreditation under the AEWV scheme. The previous scheme, introduced in July 2022, meant that franchisees had to pay up to five times the cost to employ the same employees as independently-owned businesses.”, Franchise New Zealand, April 7, 2024
“The bounceback is always stronger than the setback – Recent data at Snap Fitness 24/7 show that membership numbers are up across the globe. Over the past two years we’ve seen membership numbers rise by an average of 22% across our global footprint of Snap Fitness locations. It seems the entire industry is experiencing a boom. A new report from Deloitte and EuropeActive has revealed that revenue and membership numbers topped pre-pandemic numbers for European operators in 2023. The numbers speak for themselves, with fitness memberships up to almost 68 million in 2023 compared to 62.9 million in 2022, and operators experiencing a 14% rise in revenue as a result.”, LinkedIn post, April 29, 2024
“Red Lobster seeks a buyer as it looks to avoid bankruptcy filing – The company has considered filing for bankruptcy to help it restructure its debt and get out of a number of costly and lengthy leases, but it’s also sought a buyer in recent months, people familiar with the matter told CNBC. For the past decade amidst ownership changes, Red Lobster has taken on debt and entered into a number of long-term leases across its 700-plus locations, which have weighed on its balance sheet.”, CNBC, April 25, 2024
To receive our biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com
Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries.
William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.
For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business global successfully, click on the QR code or contact Bill Edwards at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com or +1 949 224 3896.
And download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business at this link:
Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking
EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 106, Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)
Some Introductory Comments For This 106th Issue: A definition of artificial intelligence (AI). Brazil will require bank statement to get a visa next year. An awesome quote from Yoda! The size of the rapidly growing global senior population. China’s Foreign Direct Investment is drying up. Global tourism continues to recover, but….Who runs the ‘Global South’? U.S. consumers are growing pessimistic about their economy while U.S. CEO are more optimistic (??). Private equity investment is about to massively change the U.S. franchise industry.
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with any questions, comments and contributions.
Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896
The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.
Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access. This means that some of the links to articles may not work if the reader does not have a subscription to that service. We maintain a paid subscription to ~30 information sources to be able to bring the reader the latest in global business trends.
First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“Do or Do Not, There Is No Try.” – Yoda
“Do not squander time for that is the stuff life is made of.” – Benjamin Franklin
“The way to get started is to quit talking and begin doing.” – Walt Disney
Highlights in issue #106:
- Brand Global News Section: Body Fit®, Body Shop®, Jessey Mikes®, Little Chef® and Subway®
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
Global Smartphone Market Share: Apple Steals the Crown by Less than 1%. Apple and Samsung nearly tied. The two companies are the dominant names in the global market, holding a 20.1% and 19.4% market share. In terms of growth from 2022, though, Apple managed +3.7%, while Samsung shrank by -13.6%. Chinese firms round out the top five.”, Visual Capitalist and International Data Corporation’s (IDC), April 10, 2024
“Semiconductor Companies by Industry Revenue Share – Did you know that some computer chips are now retailing for the price of a new BMW? As computers invade nearly every sphere of life, so too have the chips that power them, raising the revenues of the businesses dedicated to designing them. But how did various chipmakers measure against each other last year? We rank the biggest semiconductor companies by their percentage share of the industry’s revenues in 2023, using data from Omdia research.”, Visual Capitalist and Omdia Research, April 9, 2024
“What is AI (artificial intelligence)? – Artificial intelligence is a machine’s ability to perform some cognitive functions we usually associate with human minds. AI is a machine’s ability to perform the cognitive functions we associate with human minds, such as perceiving, reasoning, learning, interacting with the environment, problem-solving, and even exercising creativity. Machine learning is a form of artificial intelligence that can adapt to a wide range of inputs, including large sets of historical data, synthesized data, or human inputs.”, McKinsey & Co., April 3, 2024
“Visualizing the Size of the Global Senior Population – The growth of the senior population is a consequence of the demographic transition towards longer and healthier lives. Population aging, however, can pose economic and social challenges. The data is from the World Social Report 2023 by the United Nations. Currently, population aging is most advanced in Europe, Northern America, Australia, New Zealand, and parts (of) Eastern and Southeastern Asia.”, Visual Capitalist and United Nations, April 4, 2024
“Economic conditions outlook, March 2024 – Executives’ latest views on the global economy and their countries’ economies lean much more positive than they did at the end of 2023. In the latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions, the outlook on domestic conditions in most regions has become more hopeful, despite ongoing shared concerns about geopolitical instability and conflicts. In a year brimming with national elections, respondents increasingly see transitions of political leadership as a primary hazard to the global economy, particularly in Asia–Pacific, Europe, and North America. Furthermore, respondents now view policy and regulatory changes as a top threat to their companies’ performance, and they offer more muted optimism than in December about their companies’ prospects.”, McKinsey & Co., March 29, 2024
“Space: The $1.8 trillion opportunity for global economic growth – The space industry is approaching the next frontier, with each week bringing news of a major development somewhere in the world. Be it a test of a new rocket system, the launch of an innovative satellite, or a robotic exploration mission safely landing on the moon, activity in space is accelerating. We estimate that the global space economy will be worth $1.8 trillion by 2035 (accounting for inflation), up from $630 billion in 2023.”, McKinsey & Co., April 8, 2024
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues
“World coal capacity growth jeopardises peak emissions forecasts – Global fleet increases in 2023 as China brings on new plants and the pace of closures slows in EU and US. The global coal fleet grew by 2 per cent last year, mainly driven by new capacity additions in China and a slow down of closures in the EU and the US, the latest data shows. The new data found that coal capacity outside of China increased for the first time since 2019, according to the non-profit research group Global Energy Monitor, as less coal power was retired than in any single year of the past decade. Outside of China, new coal power was brought online in Indonesia, India, Vietnam, Japan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, South Korea, Greece, and Zimbabwe.”, The Financial Times, April 11, 2024
“Businesses bank on Narendra Modi election win to ease India’s bottlenecks – World’s most populous country is emerging as key market for investors but many companies remain tangled in red tape. But in private many businesses still complain about India’s complex tax regulation, difficulties in acquiring land, rigid labour laws, weak intellectual property enforcement and clogged courts. It takes almost four years to enforce contracts in business disputes, among the slowest globally, according to the World Bank. “Is the country better managed than it was decades ago? Undoubtedly so,” said a London-based executive with business in India. “Modi is a great marketer, but the ease of doing business is still not that easy at all.”, The Financial Times, April 15, 2024
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Global & Regional Travel
“Travel and Tourism Industry Poised to Break Records This Year – The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) is predicting that 2024 will be a record-breaking year for the global travel industry, with an all-time high in global economic contribution and employment. The industry is expected to generate one in every 10 dollars worldwide, contributing $11.1 trillion to the global economy, according to WTTC’s 2024 Economic Impact Research. That’s $770 billion higher than its previous record.”, Travel Pulse, April 4, 2024
“This country will require Americans to show their bank statements to visit – If you want to travel to Brazil next year, you’ll need to share your bank statements with the South American nation first. Travelers from the U.S., Canada, and Australia will need to obtain a visa before entering the country, beginning April 10, 2025, according to a Brazilian government-authorized website. To complete the visa application, visitors must provide proof of income for travel by showing their last three checking or savings account statements or their six previous pay stubs.”, The Hill, April 14, 2024
“The World’s Top Flight Routes, by Revenue – In 2024, a record 4.7 billion people are projected to travel by air—200 million more than in 2019. While revenues surged to an estimated $896 billion globally last year, airlines face extremely slim margins. On average, they made just $5.44 in net profit per passenger in 2023. Today, the industry faces pressures from high interest rates, supply chain woes, and steep infrastructure costs. This graphic shows the highest earning flight routes worldwide, based on data from OAG.”, Visual Capitalist and OAG, April 9, 2024
“Global tourism is recovering, but for Asia it’s a mixed bag at best – Talk to the UN world tourism organisation – since January rebranded as UN Tourism – and the message is that international tourism is well on the road to recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. But talk to tourism officials in Hong Kong, South Korea, mainland China or Thailand and the story is: not so fast. According to the UN’s Tourism Recovery Tracker, global tourism last year recovered to within 12 per cent of the pre-Covid level, and is forecast to fully recover this year. In Europe, by far the world’s largest tourism market, it is a story of strong recovery. Across Asia, the story is anaemic at best. And it is a story of new tourism markets and travel patterns, with much excitement focused on Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and other Gulf economies.”, South China Morning Post, April 6, 2024
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Country & Regional Updates
Australia
“RBA won’t cut interest rates until 2025 – Australia is expected to be almost the last major advanced economy to deliver an interest rate cut, after hot US inflation caused professional investors to push out bets for a local monetary easing until early next year. The deferral of an expected rate reduction until February is later than the Albanese government had hoped as a federal election approaches.”, Australian Financial Review, April 12, 2024
Canada
“Canada Unveils Billions for Artificial Intelligence – Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Sunday said his government would spend nearly $2 billion to help fuel growth in the country’s domestic artificial-intelligence sector, the latest in a series of multibillion-dollar announcements the Canadian leader has vowed won’t stoke a fresh round of inflation…..Trudeau said Canada would spend C$2.4 billion that would, among other things, help build data centers and servers and ensure access to the computer power required to conduct research in the AI field. A report from consulting firm Deloitte & Touche’s Canadian unit said venture-capital investment in Canada’s AI sector reached C$8.6 billion in 2023, adding Canada ranks third among Group of Seven countries in terms of per capita venture-capital AI investments, trailing the U.S. and U.K.”, The Wall Street Journal, April 7, 2024
China
“China Regrets Fitch’s Downward Revision of Its Outlook – The revision from stable to negative — regarding the rating outlook on China as a long-term foreign-currency debt issuer — was based on rising risks to the country’s public finances amid economic uncertainties and ‘a transition away from property-reliant growth to what the government views as a more sustainable growth model,’ Fitch said in a Tuesday commentary. ‘Wide fiscal deficits and rising government debt in recent years have eroded fiscal buffers from a ratings perspective,’ Fitch said. It maintained an ‘A+’ rating for China as a long-term debt issuer.”, Caixin Global, April 10, 2024
“China’s Mammoth Effort to Help Foreigners Spend, Spend, Spend – Regulators have been pushing banks and nonbank payment platforms, such as Alipay, owned by Ant Group Co. Ltd., and WeChat Pay, operated by Tencent Holdings Ltd.’s Tenpay Payment Technology Co. Ltd., to improve services for international visitors and make it easier for them to spend money. The campaign is part of a broader strategy to boost China’s attraction as a destination for overseas visitors and reverse a slump in foreign investment.”, Caixin Global, April 9, 2024
Southern Europe
“Southern Europe is the continent’s new economic growth engine – Southern European economies that were long sneered at by their richer northern neighbors have turned the tables as they cement their role as growth drivers in the sputtering euro area.Business surveys by S&P Global released this week showed Spain and Italy beat economists’ expectations with faster expansion in March. A manufacturing gauge for Greece indicated a similar trend. A tourism surge since the pandemic, booming exports, and lower energy prices thanks to renewables and limited reliance on Russian gas, have given so-called periphery countries on the Mediterranean the edge in the euro area. But the region’s relatively strong growth is mainly due to the fact that after many years, southern European countries have ‘corrected their imbalances, so now they are developing at a healthy rate without macroeconomic imbalances.’”, Fortune, April 9, 2024
Global South
“Who’s the big boss of the global south? In a dog-eat-dog world, competition is fierce. The simplest working definition (of Global South) is that it refers to most, but not quite all, non-Western countries. Its use also denotes how emerging economies want more power over global affairs and often have a critical view of Western policy. Narendra Modi has suggested India could be its “voice”. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (known as Lula), the president of Brazil, reckons his country could be, too. Our conclusion is, counterintuitively, that America still has more influence than any other country over the global south, but that within the grouping itself China has become the most powerful member—giving Mr Xi the strongest claim to leadership.”, The Economist, April 8, 2024
India
“How fast is India’s economy really growing? – Statisticians take the country’s figures with a pinch of salt. Today India again appears to be at the start of an upswing. In the year to the fourth quarter of 2023, GDP growth roared at 8.4%. But such figures tend to be treated with a pinch of salt. Economists inside and outside the government are debating just how fast the economy is growing—a question that has particular piquancy ahead of a general election that begins on April 19th. Since December 2019, real GDP has grown by 4.2% at an average annual rate, meaning that India, like many other countries, has not recovered to its pre-pandemic trend. Corporate and foreign investment remain weak.”, The Economist, April 11, 2024
United States
“US Inflation Refuses to Bend, Fanning Fears It Will Stick – Consumer prices rose in March amid stronger services inflation. Report reorders bets on Fed easing, dashing hopes for June cut. A key US price gauge topped forecasts for a third straight month on gains in rents and transportation costs, spurring concerns that inflation is becoming entrenched and likely further delaying Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts., Bloomberg, April 10, 2024
“Consumers are getting more pessimistic as inflation refuses to fall – Consumer sentiment about the U.S. economy has ticked down but remains near a recent high, with Americans’ outlook largely unchanged this year.The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, released Friday in a preliminary version, slipped to 77.9 this month, down from March’s figure of 79.4. Sentiment is about halfway between its all-time low, reached in June 2022 when inflation peaked, and its pre-pandemic averages. The survey has been conducted since 1980. ‘Consumers are reserving judgment about the economy in light of the upcoming election, which, in the view of many consumers, could have a substantial impact on the trajectory of the economy,’ said Joanne Hsu, director of the consumer survey.”, Fortune, April 12, 2024
“87% of CEOs confident in the U.S. economy, says KPMG – After years of uncertainty facing the economy, from the pandemic to supply-chain challenges to multiple wars, America’s CEOs feel confident in the country’s economy. And chief executives are basking in the sunshine, overjoyed to be out from under the black clouds of economic uncertainty. The survey featured responses from 100 CEOs from companies with at least $500 million in revenue and 70% of which had at least $1 billion.”, Fortune, April 11, 2024
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Brand & Franchising News
“Body Fit Training Opens Studio in Spain – Body Fit Training (BFT) announced today the opening of its 300th global studio in Barcelona, Spain. The Barcelona studio opening expands the brand’s presence in countries around the world, including its birthplace of Australia, along with New Zealand, Singapore, the U.K., the U.S., and Hong Kong, among others, as the demand for group strength training workouts continues to surge.”, Franchising.com, April 4, 2024
“Little Chefs: What happened to roadside diner chain – With 439 restaurants on major routes across the UK, Little Chef once enjoyed a near monopoly on roadside dining. So, why did the restaurant chain disappear? Little Chef was started in 1958 by catering boss Peter Merchant and caravan manufacturer Sam Alper. The business’ decline was “gradual” according to Becky Parr-Phillips who started working for Little Chef as a waitress in the 1990s, rising through the managerial ranks to become head of operations around 15 years later. The owners were keen to reduce costs and maximise profits as the chain still enjoyed something of a monopoly on roadside dining. ‘There were closures, the prices were hiked, you know the guests did start to call it Little Thief rather than Little Chef’, says Becky.”, BBC News, April 12, 2024
“The Future of The Body Shop and its International Franchisee Network – In February of this year, skincare and cosmetics retailer The Body Shop began appointing administrators across its operations in the UK and certain European territories. The Body Shop Canada and USA have since followed suit. While the future of one of the UK’s most well-known high street brands remains uncertain, we consider what went wrong, what impact this may have on The Body Shop’s international franchise network and intellectual property rights portfolio, and the potential impacts on the Asia-Pacific market….In mainland China, The Body Shop is still selling through cross-border e-commerce platforms but does not have any bricks and mortar stores.”, Bird & Bird, April 10, 2024. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
“The Franchise Industry is on The Verge of Massive Change With Private Equity’s Potential $8 Billion Acquisition of Jersey Mike’s. Two iconic brands, Subway and Jersey Mike’s, may sell to private equity after years of being closely held. Heavyweight PE firms are an increasing force within the franchising sector, marking a strategic shift and altering the industry landscape. Private equity has successfully cherry-picked most top franchise brands with enough scale to attract professional investors. Jersey Mike’s and Subway are two high-profile holdouts.” Entrepreneur, April 11, 2024
“Luckin Challenger Pushes China’s Coffee Price War Toward Boiling Point – China’s coffee market is in the midst of a price war, and it’s showing no sign of abating as the country’s leading affordable brand Luckin Coffee Inc. faces down challenger Cotti Coffee, the upstart launched by Luckin’s disgraced co-founders Lu Zhengyao and Qian Zhiya. Forced out of Luckin for their role in perpetrating a $300 million fraud, Lu and Qian returned in late 2022 with a new venture and promptly went to battle with their former brainchild. They adopted the same low-price strategy, at one point undercutting Luckin’s best discount. As of early March, Luckin had opened over 17,800 stores in China — significantly outstripping Starbucks’ 7,770 locations and Cotti’s close to 6,800, according to food and beverage industry information provider Canyan Data.”, Caixin Global, April 2, 2024. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
To receive our biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com
Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provides us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries.
William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.
For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business global successfully, click on the QR code or contact Bill Edwards at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com or +1 949 224 3896.
And download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business at this link:
Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking
EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 105, Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)
Introduction: Coca-Cola worldwide comsumption. Consumer sentiment is rising, inflation is falling, countries in Latin America are dropping interest rates, the first-ever call on a mobile phone was made 50 years ago. ‘Friendshoring’ is growing away from China. But China does finally remove the Australian wine boycott. China relaxes control of the flow of data in and out of country due to business pressure. And we look at the 12 most spoken languages in the world.
This year chocolate easter eggs were subject to ‘shrinkflation’. Egypt got another financial bailout. Starbucks® is now the second largest food brand in the world after McDonalds®, taking over from Subway®. Big tech increasingly has challenges finding energy to power their data centers. Global beer consumption explained. And AI data centers are spurring the use of more natural gas.
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA
Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896
The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.
Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access. This means that some of the links to articles may not work if the reader does not have a subscription to that service. We maintain a paid subscription to ~30 information sources to be able to bring the reader the latest in global business trends.
First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“Your time on earth is limited. Don’t try to ‘age with grace’, age with mischief, audacity, and a good story to tell.”, Compliments of Doug Bruhnke, Founder of the Global Chamber
“The secret of change is to focus all your energy not on fighting the old but on building the new.”, Socrates, father of Western philosophy
“Ideas are easy. Implementation is hard.”, Guy Kawasaki
Highlights in issue #105:
Coca Cola Consumption by Country 2024
China Loosens Cross-Border Data Rules on Business Pressure
U.S. Economic Growth Remains Robust, No Matter How You Slice It
Mexico becomes the latest major Latin American economy to cut rates
The 12 Most Spoken Languages In the World
Brand Global News Section: Anytime Fitness®, Dominos®, Olive Garden®, Orangetheory Fitness®, McDonalds®, and Starbucks®
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“Coca Cola Consumption by Country 2024 – In 1971, the Coca-Cola Company released a TV commercial that promoted quite lofty goals for a soft-drink company. At a tense time globally, “I’d Like to Teach the World to Sing” invited everyone on our planet to put aside their differences and come together to enjoy friendly music and a friendly beverage. Looking at total consumption figures by country, the number varies from year to year, but Mexico holds the honor as of 2023, with an average of 634 8-ounce servings consumed per year by the 128 million residents, slightly down from 665 reported in 2016.
With three exceptions – Cuba, North Korea, and Russia — Coca-Cola is everywhere.”, Our World In Data, March 2024
“The 12 Most Spoken Languages In the World – The top languages spoken in the world reflect economic trends, populated countries, and even colonial history. These are the most spoken languages around the world as of 2023. These figures come from Ethnologue, which publishes a list of the largest languages every year. English was born in the United Kingdom but today belongs to the modern world as the main international language of business and politics. That’s why it’s not very surprising to find English as the world’s most spoken language, with 1.5 billion speakers as of 2023.”, Visual Capitalist and Ethnologue, February 29, 2024
“(Global) Consumers Remain Upbeat – (In February 2024)Global economic uncertainty elevated but consumers upbeat; China faces deflation, real estate problems, and FDI decline; EU growth stagnant; high US interest rates affecting households and companies. Consumers remain upbeat as retail sales in the main economies show steady growth, despite elevated prices (Exhibit 1). Growing sentiment in the US saw the Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board) rise to 114.8 in January, up from a revised 108.0 in December. By contrast, consumer confidence in Brazil dropped to its lowest level since May 2023 but is still 5.0 points higher than in January 2023. Automobile sales in India (which are a proxy for consumer sales) grew by 37.3% to 393,074 units (286,390 in December). Passenger vehicles saw their highest-ever sales in January, posting a growth of around 14% compared with the previous year. Meanwhile, official news from China was that consumption during the 2024 Spring Festival holiday underwent a notable increase.”, McKinsey & Co., March 20, 2024
“Global Beer Consumption by Country in 2022 – Global beer consumption exceeded 2019, showing a return to scale to pre-COVID levels despite unstable global conditions. China was the largest overall consumer for the 20th straight year, with Asia the leading region. The Czech Republic remained the top per-capita consumer for the 30th consecutive year.”, Kirin Holdings, December 22, 2023
“Replicating the Mobile Revolution – On April 3, 1973, Martin Cooper, an engineer from Motorola, made the first-ever call on a mobile phone to another engineer at a telecommunications rival company. Fifty years later, the mobile phone is arguably the most transformational invention in recent human history. In just 50 years, the number of people using the device went from zero to more than 7.1 billion as of 2021. Over 91 percent of the world owns a mobile phone, and 90 percent of the world is covered by a commercial wireless signal.”, The Center for Strategic & International Studies, March 19, 2024
“10 Conflicts to Watch in 2024 – More leaders are pursuing their ends militarily. More believe they can get away with it. 2024 begins with wars burning in Gaza, Sudan and Ukraine and peacemaking in crisis. Worldwide, diplomatic efforts to end fighting are failing. Gaza, Wider Middle East War, Sudan, Ukraine, Myanmar, Ethiopia, The Sahel, Haiti, Armenia-Azerbaijan and U.S.-China are the conflicts to watch this year.”, The International Crisis Group, January 1, 2024
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation & Trade Issues
“Three Countries Accounted for One-Third of Global Oil Production in 2023 – Despite efforts to decarbonize the global economy, oil still remains one of the world’s most important resources. It’s also produced by a fairly limited group of countries, which can be a source of economic and political leverage. This graphic illustrates global crude oil production in 2023, measured in million barrels per day, sourced from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). In 2023, the United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia collectively contributed 32.8 million barrels per day to global oil production. In 2024, analysts forecast that the U.S. will maintain its position as the top oil producer.”, Visual Capitalist and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), March 26, 2024
“Big Tech’s Latest Obsession Is Finding Enough Energy – The AI boom is fueling an insatiable appetite for electricity, which is creating risks to the grid and the transition to cleaner energy sources. It isn’t clear just how much electricity will be required to power an exponential increase in data centers worldwide. But most everyone agreed the data centers needed to advance AI will require so much power they could strain the power grid and stymie the transition to cleaner energy sources. After a long period of stagnant demand for electricity, utilities are dialing up forecasts by astonishing amounts. The five-year projection of U.S. electricity demand growth has doubled from a year ago, according to a report from consulting firm Grid Strategies.”, The Wall Street Journal, March 24, 2024
“AI revolution will be boon for natural gas, say fossil fuel bosses – Data centres’ need for reliable power supply set to soar. A surge in demand for electricity to feed data centres and to power an artificial intelligence revolution will usher in a golden era for natural gas, producers say. AI’s soaring energy needs will rise well beyond what renewable energy and batteries can deliver, executives argue, making more planet-warming fossil fuel supplies crucial even as governments vow to slash their use.”, The Financial Times, April 1, 2024
“Friend-shoring having the desired anti-China effect – Biden’s drive to trade more with allies and less with rivals has seen Canada and Mexico supplant China as America’s largest trading partners. One of the most high-profile results of a friend-shoring policy is that Canada and Mexico have recently replaced China as America’s largest trading partners by total trade, while Mexico has overtaken China as America’s top importer.”, AsiaTimes, March 21, 2024
“Which country will be last to escape inflation? A new dividing line in the global fight. In January prices across the rich world rose by 5.7% year on year, down from a peak in late 2022 of 10.7%. This conceals wide variation, however. Some countries have slain the inflation beast. Others are still in the fight of their lives. Countries in the eu and Asia perform well; in the English-speaking world, inflation is taking longer to fade. Australia tops the ranking. Britain and Canada are not far behind. America is doing better, but even there inflation remains entrenched.”, The Economist, March 27, 2024
“‘Shrinkflation’ is coming for your Easter egg – Higher prices for smaller products are drawing the ire of politicians on both sides of the Atlantic. Last year, a Maltesers truffles luxury Easter egg could be snapped up in Waitrose for £8. Now it costs £13, according to UK consumer group Which? A Terry’s chocolate orange Easter egg with mini eggs has shrunk by 30g and a large Mars milk chocolate egg has dropped from 252g to 201g. It’s not just Easter eggs that are getting smaller and more expensive. So-called shrinkflation is hitting economies and consumers across the world and drawing the ire of politicians on both sides of the Atlantic.”, The Financial Times, March 28, 2024
“Global inflation and interest rates tracker – Inflationary pressures are beginning to wane but not all central banks have taken action yet. Central banks around the world are expected to lower borrowing costs as global inflation eases from the multi-decade highs reached in many countries over the past two years.”, The Financial Times, March 28, 2024
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Country & Regional Updates
Australia
“China removes punishing tariffs on Australian wine trade – China is removing punishing tariffs on Australian wine imposed more than three years ago, restrictions that have all but destroyed a $1.2 billion export market for hundreds of local wineries. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce, late on Thursday, said the tariffs would be removed on Friday. They were imposed in late 2020.”, The Australian Financial Review, March 28, 2024
China
“China Loosens Cross-Border Data Rules on Business Pressure – More information will be exempt, top internet regulator says Foreign businesses have complained about the data rules. China relaxed rules governing cross-border data flows, addressing a key concern of foreign businesses that had complained previous regulations were disrupting their operations. Data collected in international trade, cross-border travel, manufacturing, academic research, and marketing that don’t contain either personal information or “important” information will be exempt from security evaluations when transfered out of the country, China’s top internet regulator said in a statement Friday.”, Bloomberg, March 22, 2024
“Tim Cook opens Asia s biggest Apple Store – People flocked to the Jing’an Temple area in Shanghai for the opening of Asia’s biggest Apple Store on Thursday night, and to see Apple’s chief executive Tim Cook. Shanghai now has eight Apple Stores, compared to six in Hong Kong and five in Beijing. New York city has seven. Since its first store in Shanghai – Apple Pudong – opened in July 2010, more than 163 million people have visited Apple’s seven retail locations in the city.”, Shine.cn, March 21, 2024. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
Egypt
“After pushing its economy to the brink, Egypt gets a bail-out – But a record-setting investment from the UAE will not fix its chronic problems. On February 23rd Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) signed a $35bn deal to develop Ras el-Hekma, a wedge of land jutting off Egypt’s Mediterranean coast. Within weeks of the announcement, the IMF more than doubled the $3bn loan it promised Egypt in December 2022, to $8bn. The European Union (EU) announced a €7.4bn ($8bn) aid package, and the World Bank stumped up another $6bn. All told, Egypt hauled in more than $50bn, a sum that dwarfs the central bank’s $35bn in foreign reserves.”, The Economist, March 27, 2024
Japan
“Japan Steps Closer to Intervention as Yen Hits Lowest Since 1990 – Finance Minister Suzuki ramps up forex intervention threat. Yen may quicken drop if 152 barrier broken, say traders. The yen dipped to 151.97 versus the dollar early on Wednesday in Tokyo, before recovering after comments from Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, and his top currency official Masato Kanda indicating that Japan was ready to act.
South Korea
“South Korea prepares financial support for small businesses, builders – The government, together with commercial banks, plans to provide 40.6 trillion won ($30.3 billion) of financial support for small and medium-sized companies through loan guarantees and lower interest rates from April, the Financial Services Commission (FSC) said in a statement. The ministry in charge of financial policies also said it would continue to expand its joint scheme with commercial banks that returns interest income to small businesses and self-employed people who have taken out loans.”, Reuters, March 26, 2024
Mexico
“Mexico becomes the latest major Latin American economy to cut rates – Region has already begun unwinding its response to soaring inflation that has affected monetary policy around the world. The decision by the Bank of Mexico on Thursday to cut rates by 25 basis points to 11 per cent comes as most central banks in developed countries have yet to loosen monetary policy. Latin American central bankers’ swift response to soaring inflation after the coronavirus pandemic has transformed their credibility as they emerge from the most serious wave of price pressures in decades.”, The Financial Times, March 21, 2024
United Kingdom
“UK inflation falls to 3.4% as Bank of England mulls interest rate cut – Inflation slid faster than expected to its lowest level in two and a half years in February, strengthening hopes that the Bank of England will cut interest rates in the coming months, official figures showed. Inflation is now running at its slowest pace since September 2021. City analysts and the Bank of England had anticipated the rate to decline to 3.5 per cent. Inflation peaked at 11.1 per cent in October 2022, lifted by higher energy prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”, The Times of London, March 21, 2024
“UK Restaurants and Bars Cut Hours as Costs Soar by £3.4 Billion – Hospitality sector is facing higher wages and business rates Sites are reducing shifts and opening hours to cope with costs. Restaurants and bars across Britain are having to slash staff working hours to cushion the blow of a £3.4 billion ($4.3 billion) spike in annual costs, according to the head of the sector’s trade body. Kate Nicholls, chief executive officer of UKHospitality, said sites were also cutting back their opening hours to deal with a ‘tsunami of costs.’”, Bloomberg, April 1, 2024
“Domestic energy production falls to lowest level on record – Britain imported a net 41.1 per cent of its energy last year, up from 37.3 per cent in 2022, primarily from Norway and America. North Sea oil production last year fell to the weakest level since records began in 1948 and gas output was the second lowest, according to figures from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero. A rise in wind, solar and hydroelectric output failed to offset the fall in more carbon-intensive fuels, which meant that total UK energy production was 9 per cent lower than in 2022 and down by more than two thirds on 1999, when domestic production peaked. Maintenance outages and plant closures meant that nuclear output was also at a fresh low.”, The Times of London, March 29, 2024
United States
“U.S. Economic Growth Remains Robust, No Matter How You Slice It – The Bureau of Economic Analysis said real gross domestic product grew 3.4% in the last three months of 2023, an upward revision from its previous estimate of 3.2%. That was driven by the fact that government spending, particularly at the local and state level, was higher than originally estimated. After trailing GDP dramatically throughout 2023, real gross domestic income jumped by 4.8% in the fourth quarter. It was the first quarter that GDI outpaced GDP growth since the third quarter of 2022.”, Barrons, March 28, 2024
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Brand & Franchising News
“Anytime Fitness to Expand into United Arab Emirates – High-profile financier Mark Mobius leads an investment group that will bring Anytime Fitness® to the United Arab Emirates, according to a news release from the gym brand’s parent, Self Esteem Brands. The umbrella franchisor owns a portfolio of diverse health and wellness brands. With the expansion into the UAE, Self Esteem Brands will have Anytime Fitness clubs operating 24/7/365 in more than 40 countries and territories around the world. Anytime Fitness is a fast-growing brand that serves nearly 5 million members at more than 5,200 clubs globally.”, FranchiseWire, March 24, 2024
“3 Important Considerations in Adapting Your Restaurant Menu for Global Success – If you want to expand your restaurant franchise and reach a global audience, you must adapt your menu accordingly. Updating your menu items when you open locations in other countries is essential for your restaurant’s long-term stability and success. Recognize cultural sensitivities. Evaluate profit margins and cost considerations. Retain brand consistency while adapting.”, Franchising.com, March 29, 2024
“International Growth Session Highlights from the 2024 Multi-Unit Franchising Conference – A high-level panel discussion at last week’s 2024 Multi-Unit Franchising Conference (“How Franchise Brands Grow Outside Their Home Country”) provided advice—both encouraging and cautionary—for franchise brand attendees looking to expand outside of their national borders. Whether U.S. brands eyeing overseas growth, or international brands looking to expand into the U.S., the expert panel had something for everyone. Franchising, March 27, 2024
“Domino’s China Franchisee Expands in Smaller Cities For Growth – The Chinese franchisee of Domino’s Pizza Inc. is accelerating store expansions as consumers outside the country’s top cities show a bigger appetite for western food.The pizza chain wants to tap demand for fast food among residents in less prominent Chinese cities and towns that aspire to the lifestyle of glitzy megacities, Aileen Wang, chief executive officer of DPC Dash Ltd, also known as Domino’s Pizza China, told Bloomberg in an interview in Shanghai Thursday. Bloomberg, March 28, 2024
“Quebec franchisees sue Tim Hortons, claiming declining profits – Nearly a dozen Quebec franchisees are suing Tim Hortons QSR-T, claiming their profits have declined by millions of dollars in recent years. The store owners say the gap has narrowed between their own costs for supplies and menu prices, both of which are controlled by the company. Tim Hortons currently has more than 3,900 locations in Canada, approximately 615 of which are in Quebec. The company has acknowledged that franchisee profits fell during that time: The average Tim Hortons location made $320,000 in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) in 2018, a number that declined to $220,000 by 2022.”, The Globe and Mail, March 29, 2024
“Olive Garden’s earnings just pulled back the curtain on the economy: The rich are dining out while the poor are falling back. ‘We’re clearly seeing consumer behavior shifts,’ Darden CEO Rick Cardenas said in a third-quarter earnings call on Thursday. ‘Transactions from incomes below $75,000 were much lower than last year. And at every brand, transactions fell from incomes below $50,000.’ Meanwhile, transactions for higher-income individuals were higher than last year, according to the earnings call, so households earning at least $150,000 were dining out more.”, Fortune, March 22, 2024
“Second-biggest restaurant chain in the world behind McDonald’s will surprise you – The burger chain is the biggest-restaurant chain in the world by unit, according to a Restaurant Business report, a publication focused on the foodservice industry. Hot on the heels in the No. 2 slot this year is a newcomer. For the first time, coffee giant Starbucks pushed past Subway to become the second-largest restaurant chain in the world. The Seattle-based coffee brand added 3,000 new locations in 2023, bringing the total number globally to 38,587, according to data from Technomic, an industry research and consulting firm. Starbucks operates 2,000 more locations than Subway, which once was the largest chain in the world by total unit count.”, Penn Live, March 23, 2024
“Orangetheory Fitness and Self Esteem Brands Announce Intent to Merge as Equals, Creating a New Company Representing One of the Largest Footprints of Fitness, Health and Wellness Services……the new company will represent $3.5 billion in systemwide sales and approximately 7,000 franchise locations across 50 countries and territories on all seven continents. The merger will result in significant international scale for the new company, with continued investments in leading-edge data and analytics, technology, products and services that help franchisees across its brands outpace growing consumer demands for holistic health and wellness services.”, PR Newswire, February 29, 2024
“18 International Starbucks Bakery Items You Need To Know About……the drink selection — and even more noticeably, the bakery options — tend to differ drastically at Starbucks locations outside the U.S. This makes sense, of course. The retailer operates stores in a staggering 80 countries as of March 2024, after all, and has made a conscious effort to adapt to the local culinary culture in each market. Here are 18 international Starbucks bakery items you need to know about.”, The Tasting Table, March 23, 2024
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provides us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries.
William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global. With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.
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EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 104, Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)
Introduction: Perhaps the most critical trend today is discussed in the “Regulate AI? How US, EU and China Are Going About It” article. Perhaps the second most important trend is McDonalds winning over French villages – seriously! Third is probably the fact that cocoa has surged to record prices and that means hot chocolate’s price will soar. The world’s economy has a growing chance of a soft landing and why inflation will drop in 2024. KFC surpasses 30,000 restaurants worldwide.
Reshoring, nearshoring, and friend shoring back into the United Kingdom. Chinese goods flow into Mexico to eventually enter the USA. The global sporting goods industry growth stand out for 2024 (pickleball??). Africa’s population to hit 2.5 billion by 2050. Better days for Australian wine exports ahead. Where are the obesity capitals of the world and why. Japan’s workers secure their highest annual pay raise in 30 years.
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA
Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896
The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.
Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.
First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times
“The possibilities are numerous once we decide to act and not react”, George Bernard Shaw
“When opportunity comes, it is too late to prepare”, Coach John Wooden
“Whenever you see a successful business, someone once made a courageous decision.”, Peter F. Drucker
Highlights in issue #104:
- Brand Global News Section: Jollibees®, Haidilao®, KFC® and McDonalds®
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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies
“Regulate AI? How US, EU and China Are Going About It – Governments don’t have a great track record of keeping up with emerging technology. But the complex, rapidly evolving field of artificial intelligence raises legal, national security and civil rights concerns that can’t be ignored. The European Union passed a sweeping law that would put guardrails on the technology; in China, no company can produce an AI service without proper approvals. The US is still working on its regulatory approach. Already at work in products as diverse as toothbrushes and drones, systems based on AI have the potential to revolutionize industries from health care to logistics. But replacing human judgment with machine learning carries risks.”, Bloomberg, March 13, 2024
“Mapping Population Growth by Region (1900-2050F) – In fewer than 50 years, the world population has doubled in size, jumping from 4 to 8 billion. China was the main source of Asia’s population expansion, though its population growth has slowed in recent years. That’s why in 2023, India surpassed China to become the world’s most populous country. Southeast Asian countries like the Philippines and Indonesia have also been big drivers of Asia’s population boom to this point. Africa to hit 2.5 billion by 2050. Three countries—Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Egypt—will account for roughly 30% of that 2.5 billion population figure. A century ago, Europe’s population was close to 30% of the world total. Today, that figure stands at less than 10%.” Visual Capitalist and Our World In Data, March 10, 2024
“What types of meat does the world consume? Here’s an approximate breakdown of the percentages of beef, fish, chicken, and pork consumed globally each year:
- Pork: 36% (Most consumed meat globally)
- Chicken: 35%
- Beef: 22%
- Fish: 7%”
Our World In Data, December 2023
“The obesity capitals of the world – A new study shows that waistlines are widening almost everywhere. It was not that long ago that more of the world’s people had too little to eat than ate too much. Now the scales have tipped. A study published on February 29th in the Lancet, a medical journal, shows that more than 1bn people were classified as obese in 2022. The analysis finds higher obesity rates in low- and middle-income countries than in many high-income ones. More than 60% of adults in Polynesia and Micronesia were living with obesity in 2022—the highest rate in the world. This is likely to be a result of changing diets and a culture that puts a value on size.”, The London Economist, March 1, 2024
“Sporting goods industry trends for 2024 – As the world continued its uneven progress in 2023, the sporting goods industry faced familiar challenges. Economic headwinds, persistent inflation, and regional conflicts undermined consumer confidence, while companies continued to struggle with inventories—mainly overstocking, because anticipated demand failed to materialize. But the industry demonstrated its resilience again. Revenue growth in 2023 was 6 percent (compared with 2 percent in 2022) amid stronger performance across geographies.As we begin 2024, this report highlights a renewed sense of optimism among industry leaders. This reflects opportunities arising from an improving market environment and new consumer preferences. More people are choosing sports that are quicker to pick up, require less commitment, and are more social, rather than organized sports with fixed time commitments or requirements for teams or high levels of skill.”, McKinsey & Co., January 30, 2024
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation & Trade Issues
“World Economy Has Growing Chance of Soft Landing, G-20 Says – Finance ministers in Sao Paulo will finalize closing statement Draft cites ‘faster-than-expected disinflation’ as upside risk. The global economy has a growing chance of pulling off a soft landing, finance chiefs said in a draft of the G-20’s closing statement at this week’s meeting in Brazil, citing faster-than-expected disinflation as one of the upside risks. ‘We note that the likelihood of a soft landing in the global economy has increased,’ said the draft communique dated Feb. 23, seen by Bloomberg News. ‘Risks to the global economic outlook are more balanced. Upside risks include faster-than expected disinflation.’”, Bloomberg, February 27, 2024
“Global inflation and interest rates tracker – Central banks around the world are expected to lower borrowing costs as global inflation eases from the multi-decade highs reached in many countries over the past two years. Some institutions, particularly in emerging markets, have already started cutting rates, but many more are forecast to follow this year, including the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. The FT global inflation and interest rates tracker provides a regularly updated visual narrative of consumer price inflation and central bank policy rates around the world.”, The London Financial Times, March 12, 2024
“Your Sweet Tooth Is Getting Expensive – Prices for cocoa, the key ingredient in chocolate, have surged to records. Cocoa prices have climbed past a record set nearly a half-century ago, costing chocolate makers, bakers and aficionados alike. The sharp climb in price for chocolate’s main ingredient started with bad weather in West Africa, where much of the world’s cocoa is grown. Speculators piling into one of the hottest trades outside of artificial intelligence have added fuel to the rally.”, The Wall Street Journal, March 15, 2024
“Inflation Projections by Country, in 2024 – Global economic prospects hang on a delicate balance, largely hinging on the path of inflation. While inflation looks to be easing, there remains the risk of a second wave of price pressures driven by geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions in the Red Sea. Adding to this, a stronger than expected labor market could drive consumer demand, pushing up higher prices. n 2024, global inflation is projected to decline to 5.8%, down from a 6.8% estimated annual average in 2023. Tighter monetary policy and falling energy prices are forecast to dampen price pressures alongside a cooling labor market.”, Visual Capitalist and the International Monetary Fund, February 28, 2024
“Global BEV Market Share: Tesla Retains its #1 Spot for 2023 – Global BEV market share for the full year 2023, based on figures compiled by TrendForce. BEV refers to “battery electric vehicle”, also known as fully electric. This differs from PHEVs (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles), which still have a combustion engine. Analysts expect China’s BYD to surpass Tesla in BEV sales for 2024, given that BYD already outsold Tesla in the fourth quarter of 2023 (526,000 compared to 485,000).” ,Visual Capitalist, February 29, 2024
“Global Fuel Prices Are Surging With Supply Risks Ahead – US pump prices 60% higher than 2020, when Biden was elected. Global oil demand and refinery runs are both forecast to rise. US gasoline futures have jumped sharply in recent weeks and are now up by more than a fifth so far this year, while diesel in Europe has risen 10%. Disruptions on the world’s major trade routes, refinery closures and resurgent demand are pushing up global fuel prices and making forecasts difficult in the run-up to a US presidential election in which inflation will be a key issue. Interruptions to fuel production — a combination of scheduled work, unplanned outages and drone attacks on Russian facilities — have been lifting prices. They’ve come on top of higher shipping costs caused by Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and drought at the Panama Canal, as well as the supply-chain ructions spurred by Western sanctions on the Kremlin.”, Blomberg, March 12, 2024
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Country & Regional Updates
Australia
“China-Australia wine trade barriers seen falling as (Chinese) foreign minister Wang Yi confirms trip down under – Beijing is widely expected to reduce some trade barriers that were imposed in the past few years as relations deteriorated following Canberra’s call for an investigation into the origin of the coronavirus. Australia’s largest wine producer, Treasury Wine Estates, has been informed that the Chinese Ministry of Commerce had issued a draft interim decision outlining the cancellation of additional tariffs on Australian wine, according to a filing with the Australian Securities Exchange on Tuesday.”, South China Morning Post, March 14, 2024
Canada
“Companies must design offices people want to come to – 76 per cent of Canadian companies are partially or fully mandating a return to the office. Offices are not currently designed to meet employees’ needs for collaboration. Companies can make thoughtful design updates that foster connection and support hybrid work so everyone wins. Data from Cisco Canada’s new Reimagining Workspaces Survey shows that there is a gap between what workers are looking for when they return to the office – collaboration – and what companies are currently offering – mostly solo work spaces.”, The Global and Mail, March 17, 2024
India
“On Eve of Elections, India Secures Pivotal $100bn Trade Agreement – India has successfully brokered a comprehensive free-trade pact with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), consisting of Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, and Liechtenstein, injecting a staggering $100 billion investment into the Indian economy. The pact is designed with the objective of curtailing tariffs, simplifying investment frameworks, and enhancing the trade of goods and services. This move is expected to forge a dynamic economic alliance. Finalized after persistent negotiations spanning over a decade and a half, the deal entails India’s agreement to abrogate most import tariffs on industrial products from the EFTA countries, who, in turn, are set to make significant investments in Indian industries, including pharmaceuticals, machinery, and manufacturing, over the next 15 years.”, Intpolicydigest.org, March 12, 2024
Japan
“Japan’s Blowout Wage Result May Spur BOJ March Rate Increase – Japan’s workers secured the largest pay hike in more than 30 years. Largest union group says annual deals hit 5.28% in first tally Biggest gains in more than 30 years may prompt Bank Of Japan (BOJ) move. The stronger-than-expected result may be enough to convince the BOJ to end the world’s last negative rate on Tuesday instead of waiting until April. The central bank has long pursued a goal of achieving sustainable 2% inflation.”, Bloomberg, March 14, 2024
Latin America
“Catalysts of Change: How Entrepreneurs Are Transforming Latin America – In 2021, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) was the fastest-growing region in the world for venture capital (VC) investment, reaching an all-time high of $15.7 billion. At the close of that year, a total of 47 Latin American companies had secured the requisite valuation to be considered a unicorn. Of these 47 companies, a total of 10 had gone public or been acquired in 2022. The start-up ecosystem in LAC is having a considerable impact in the region, catalyzing a generation of innovators to increase competitiveness and economic growth.”, Center for Strategic & International Studies, March 8, 2024
Mexico
“China Goods Flood Into Mexico, Making It Top Global Trade Route – China-to-Mexico containers surged 60% in January, Xeneta says At that rate, Mexico volumes may pass US West Coast by 2031. Global goods trade is struggling to accelerate in most corners of the world economy this year — with one big exception: Chinese goods flowing into Mexico. After jumping almost 35% in 2023 from a year earlier, the number of containers shipped to Mexico from China surged 60% in January, according to a blog post Thursday by Oslo-based Xeneta, which analyzes ocean and air freight markets. ‘This is probably the strongest-growing trade in the world right now’, Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand wrote. The reason, he suggested, has more to do with tariff avoidance than a growing demand from Mexican consumers and businesses to purchase Chinese products.”, Bloomberg, March 14, 2024
Singapore
“Singapore bumps up 2024 GDP forecast on manufacturing growth – lowers headline inflation outlook. GDP is expected to grow at 2.4% in 2024, up from 2.3% forecast in the previous survey, while CPI is estimated to be lower at 3.1%, compared with 3.4% expected earlier. The city-state’s economic growth is expected to increase to 2.5% in 2025. Singapore’s manufacturing sector — which makes up over 20% of the country’s GDP — is now expected to grow at 4% in 2024, up from 2.3%.”, CNBC, March 13, 2024
United Kingdom
“Why firms are bringing their manufacturing back home (to the UK) – Reshoring is when a company decides to stop getting its manufacturing done overseas, such as in China, and instead returns the work to its home country. More than half of UK manufacturers are now reshoring, according to one study at the start of this year. Other firms are “near shoring”, which means that while they are still getting their manufacturing done overseas, they are moving it to a nearer country. And then there is so-called “friend shoring”, whereby you keep your manufacturing abroad, but move it to a country that has friendlier relationships with your own.”, BBC, March 12, 2024
“Increase in UK Jobs for Window Cleaners, Gardeners and Authors – There has also been a growing demand for translators, fashion designers and data entry administrators. The biggest fall in vacancies included those for delivery drivers and couriers, optometrists and prison officers, said the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC).”, Bloomberg, March 16, 2024
United States
“SOCi’s 2024 Consumer Behavior Index – SOCi’s Consumer Behavior Index (CBI) asks U.S. consumers to weigh in on their practices and preferences when interacting on and offline with local businesses. The survey asked1,002 consumers across the U.S. about: The sites and apps they use to research and discover local businesses; The peer feedback about businesses that consumers both use and provide; The importance of open lines of communication between customers and local businesses; and Consumer feelings about AI in local marketing. Our U.S. consumers told us that they search online for local businesses online quite a bit, with 80% saying they do so at least once
a week and 32% searching every day or even multiple times a day.”, SOCI and the International Franchise Association, February 14, 2024
“Small businesses employment and job vacancy growth by region – Monthly employment growth rates and levels for small businesses with 1-9 employees (seasonally adjusted), showing the number of people employed in each region by businesses of this size and the monthly change in employment. National sample: almost 333,000 small businesses that run payroll with QuickBooks. The Index uses QuickBooks anonymized data to create aggregated data outputs which are normalized against official statistics to reflect the general population of small businesses, rather than the QuickBooks customer base. Regions are defined by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.”, Intuit, February 2, 2024
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Brand & Franchising News
“KFC surpasses 30K restaurants globally – KFC is opening a new restaurant somewhere in the world every 3.5 hours on average. KFC’s newest restaurant in Rome, Italy, marks the company’s 30,000th global location. In 2023, KFC opened nearly 2,7000 restaurants across 96 countries, a 10% development pace and setting a brand development record. More than 80% of unit growth came from 15 publicly traded franchisees. KFC accounts for nearly 50% of parent company Yum Brands’ divisional operating growth.”, Nation’s Restaurant News, March 12, 2024
“Why has Haidilao opened its franchise business and catering chain franchises become so popular? In recent years, many catering brands have opened up franchises, and China’s catering chain process has accelerated. On March 4, Haidilao announced the opening of a franchise model to further expand. According to the company’s financial report, as of June 30, 2023, Haidilao had a total of 1,382 stores in Greater China, of which about 17% were located in first-tier cities, about 40% were opened in second-tier cities, and another 40% were opened in third-tier and below cities.”, Caixin, March 4, 2024. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto.
“Why McDonald’s is winning over French villages – Despite years of protests the chain is expanding in rural France — and as traditional cafés close, young people are embracing the fast-food giant. The local café used to be a focus of social life in French villages, a place to enjoy a leisurely coffee, catch up on gossip or savour an aperitif after work. Some 70 per cent of village cafés have been forced to close, however, as rural populations have dwindled and habits have changed. Now, an unlikely newcomer may be replacing them as a place for young people to socialise in small communities: McDonald’s. Long popular in French towns and cities, McDonald’s is expanding into rural areas. Surprisingly perhaps, it appears to be welcome.”, The Sunday Times of London, March 14, 2024
“Jollibee Targets Exponential Growth in China to Triple Profit – Company allots up to 23 billion pesos (US$415,00,000) for capital spending It plans to sell preferred shares to raise 8 billion pesos. With 6,885 stores at the end of 2023, the company plans to open another 700 to 750 outlets this year and boost its network in multiple lower-tier cities in China as it ramps up franchising to expand globally. Aggressive expansion plans in China of the food chain known for its crispy fried chicken and sweet spaghetti comes as the Philippines’ assertive stance in the South China Sea has made some businesses cautious.”, Bloomberg, March 11, 2024
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