Global Business Development

Biweekly Global Business Update Newsletter, Issue 157, Tuesday, March 31, 2026

Posted on Mar 30th, 2026 in Asia Pacific, Europe, India, Miscellaneous, Predictions and Trends, Professional Development, World Culture, World Economy | 0 comments

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“The increase of disorder creates the demand for order.”

Welcome to the 157th Edition of the Biweekly Global Business Update – This issue updates our readers on oil import dependency by country, Internet freedom around the world, global AI adoption, global life expectancy, Strait of Hormuz, global LNG shipments, global fertilizer shipments, gold’s fall in 2026, global M&A deals, global jet fuel soars, surging Africa fuel imports, Asis crude oil imports, Canada and Cuba economic challenges, the USA’s competitive edge and where the USA exports. A special book review as always and franchise sector news about Jollibee®, Nothing Bundt Cakes®, Red Lobster® and Krispy Kreme®.

This edition’s book review highlights: “Story Business: Why Stories Rule the World and How They Can Reinvent Your Business” by Gavin McMahon. In Story Business, Gavin McMahon makes a compelling—and highly practical—argument that many global executives still underestimate: the companies that win are not always those with the best strategies, but those that tell the best stories.

A special letter to my 4,435 Current Subscribers:

For 6 years since the initial issue in March 2020, I have published this Bi-weekly Global Business Update Newsletter, sharing curated global intelligence with global business leaders who need to understand how international events affect their companies. Today marks my 157^th edition. Thank you for being a subscriber!

In today’s environment of tariffs, geopolitical conflict, and rapidly shifting global alliances, timely global intelligence is not optional for internationally minded companies. It is essential. Given what the world is experiencing in global trade as I write this edition, my newsletter is far timelier than I thought would be when it started in the middle of COVID 6 years ago this month.

Every two weeks I review dozens of international sources and combine them with my own analysis of global trade, geopolitics, franchising, and economic trends. I also review a different book for each issue with takeaways for global businesspeople. The goal has always been straightforward: help executives see what is really happening around the world before it impacts their business. Not just what is on the evening news.

Over the past 156 editions, this newsletter has grown to more than 4,400 readers worldwide and is regularly cited and summarized by industry publications and senior international executives.

However, producing a high-quality global briefing requires a significant investment of time – 20-30 hours per edition – intense research, and access to numerous paid international information sources. After many years of publishing the newsletter as a complimentary resource, I will be moving the Bi-weekly Global Business Update Newsletter to a subscription model on Substack beginning with the 158^th edition on April 14^th.

For US$10 per month or US$100/year, subscribers will receive:

26 Bi-weekly Global Business Update Newsletter issues per year
A quarterly proprietary Global Business Trends Report with analysis and forward-looking insights for 40 countries
Continued access to the curated global intelligence many of you have relied on for 6 years

A brief word of background for those who may be newer readers: I have spent more than five decades working internationally, living in China, the Czech Republic, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, and Turkey, and directing projects across many business sectors in more than 50 countries. I have developed and maintain an extensive networks of senior contacts. Today I serve as CEO and Global Advisor at Edwards Global Services and have helped over 50 companies expand into international markets. The perspective in this newsletter comes directly from that real-world experience working in global markets.

If the Bi-weekly Global Business Update Newsletter has helped you stay informed about global business and geopolitical trends, I hope you will consider becoming one of the founding subscribers who ensures its continuation.

Subscribe here: https://geowizard.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you for reading my newsletter and for your continued interest in using it to successfully navigate the ‘excessively interesting’ global business landscape we live in today.

Best regards,

William (Bill) Edwards

CEO & Global Business Advisor

Edwards Global Services, Inc.

bedwards@edwardsglobal.com

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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business. We do not get involved with or report on politics!

PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.

Sunce March 2020, this newsletter has been assembled, edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA and the EGS GlobalTeam™ in several countries. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896

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Here is a link to our current and past newsletters: https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“The increase of disorder creates the demand for order.”, Adlai Stevenson

“Even if you are on the right track, you’ll get run over if you just sit there.”, Will Rogers

“Do what you can, with what you have, where you are”, President Theodore Roosevelt

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Highlights in issue #157:

The World’s Energy Safety Net Is Buckling

Freedom On The Internet Around The World

Six breakthrough business models reshaping (Asian) growth

Iran Conflict Sparks Global Rush For Critical Fertilizers

Gold’s Safe-Haven Status Is Failing Its Biggest Test

The Americas lead global trade deals

Franchise Global News Update Section: Jollibee®, Krispy Kreme®, Nothing Bundt Cakes® and Red Lobster®

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

The chart shows the percentage of oil that is imported by these countries. This analysis is based on data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and Eurostat, March 20, 2026

Editor’s Note: Going forward there will be more of this basic research in the Edwards Biweekly Global Business Update Newsletter. This research is from several online data sources.

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“Freedom On The Internet Around The World – Iceland Tops Global Internet Freedom; China, Myanmar Rank Lowest. The Internet Freedom Index measures how easily people can speak, access information, and share opinions online without heavy censorship, surveillance, or interference from state or non-state actors……“Freedom on the Net” tracks political and civil liberties in 70 countries, measuring internet freedom through classifications of “Free”, “Partly Free”, or “Not Free”. China and Myanmar are the most restricted, scoring 9/100 with no improvement from last year. South Korea is partly free at 65 and on a downward trend. India shows an upward climb at 51, indicating a recent improvement in digital rights.”, Visual Capitalist & Freedom House, March 17, 2026

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This analysis is based on data from Stanford’s AI Index, Microsoft’s global adoption studies, and McKinsey’s enterprise surveys. This analysis is focused on surveys of large enterprise companies in each country, March 28

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“Comparing Life Expectancy in Major Economies – This graphic shows life expectancy by country across the world’s 30 largest economies, based on data from the United Nations. GDP data was drawn from the International Monetary Fund. Japan has the highest life expectancy among the world’s largest economies, at 85 years. Indonesia, ranked 17th globally by GDP in 2025, has the lowest life expectancy at 72 years.”, Visual Capitalist and the United Nations and the IMF, January 27, 2026

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“The world’s most unaffordable housing is not where you think – Asia’s great cities will founder without more reasonably priced homes. Cities in developing countries such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines are gaining hundreds of millions of people. This urbanisation is only getting started. In South Asia, for example, barely 35% of the population is urban, compared with 80% in North America. Yet problems in Asia’s great metropolises are mounting. The likes of Delhi, Jakarta and Manila suffer from awful pollution, traffic and crime. The greatest challenge is a shortage of decent and affordable housing.”, The Economist, March 25, 2026

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes, Tariffs & Trade Issues

“EU Sees Risk of Stagflation Shock for Europe From Iran War – The European Union economy is at danger of enduring low growth combined with high inflation because of the war in the Middle East, according to Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis. A shorter conflict would push up inflation by 1 percentage points this year, while a more severe scenario could add as much as 1.5 percentage points, according to Dombrovskis and people familiar with the matter. The European Commission “stands ready to work closely with member states to design policy measures at national level to mitigate impact of high energy prices,” Dombrovskis said. European capitals have already started to downgrade their forecasts due to the fallout from the war and the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”, Bloomberg, March 27, 2026

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“The World’s Energy Safety Net Is Buckling – The Iran war has hit every node in the supply chain for liquefied natural gas. The war in Iran has fractured every node of the regional LNG supply chain. Iranian strikes on Qatar, one of the world’s top LNG producers, have damaged its Ras Laffan facility, knocking out some 17% of its capacity for up to five years, and delayed the country’s massive expansion plans. Meanwhile, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which usually carries around a fifth of global LNG, is paralyzed.”, The Wall Street Journal, March 25, 2026

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“Iran Conflict Sparks Global Rush For Critical Fertilizers – A third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, while gas from the region is crucial to production of nutrients for global agriculture. The US and Israel’s attacks on Iran and Tehran’s retaliation have disrupted supplies of fertilizer, causing farmers worldwide to rush to secure critical nutrients. The conflict has come at a sensitive moment for global agriculture, with the cost of fertilizers already high and farmers in the northern hemisphere about to begin fertilizing their fields. If the disruption continues, it could add to inflationary pressures and affect output of critical crops, with consumers worldwide likely to feel the impact, particularly in countries in the global south.”, Bloomberg, March 6, 2026

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“Gold’s Safe-Haven Status Is Failing Its Biggest Test – The war in the Middle East has revealed that gold isn’t much of a haven. It’s almost exactly the opposite. The metal has lost about a fifth of its value since it surged to an all-time high in late January. The simplest explanation of this selloff then, as Gavekal’s Charles Gave and Louis-Vincent Gave note, is that gold was massively overbought in the lead-up to the war. In a period of market dislocation, overbought assets get hurt; people wanted to take profits, of which there were many in gold.”, Bloomberg, March 24, 2026

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“Ships forgo cargo to carry fuel as Iran war sends prices soaring – Ships have been forgoing cargo in order to take shipping fuel to critical ports, as shortages caused by strikes in the Gulf pile almost $5bn of extra costs on the industry since the Iran war began. While fuel oil costs have come down from a peak of $1,130 a tonne on March 9 to $796 on March 25, they are still about 55 per cent higher than at the end of February, according to Argus. Some container ships are also filling up their bunker tanks more than usual as a way of transporting fuel.”, The Financial Times, March 26, 2026

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“The Americas lead global trade deals – After dealmaking slowed momentarily in early 2025, global M&A activity quickly assumed a grand scale—delivering big gains for the year. All this week, we explore M&A trends, from megadeals to cross-regional trading and more. The Americas led cross-regional trade deals in 2025, accounting for 16 of the world’s 20 largest deals. Rounds of US-led tariffs, softer regulations, and a large addressable market contributed to net inflows to the Americas increasing by 70 percent, to (US)$149 billion.”, McKinsey & Co., March 26, 2026

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Global & Regional Travel News

“Asia’s Air Travel Crisis Risks Spreading on Iran War’s Jet Fuel Squeeze – The aviation crisis in Asia is threatening to intensify and spread to Europe and beyond due to energy turmoil caused by the Iran war. Airlines are canceling flights as jet fuel prices surge to record highs, with some costs doubling since the start of the year. The European Union and the UK could be weeks away from similar conditions, and even the US is vulnerable to supply shocks, particularly in regions reliant on Asian supply.”, Bloomberg, March 27, 2026

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Book Review

“Story Business: Why Stories Rule the World and How They Can Reinvent Your Business” by Gavin McMahon. In Story Business, Gavin McMahon makes a compelling—and highly practical—argument that many global executives still underestimate: the companies that win are not always those with the best strategies, but those that tell the best stories.

Drawing on examples ranging from early human history to modern global corporations, McMahon shows that storytelling is not simply a marketing tool—it is a core business capability. Stories shape how customers perceive value, how employees align behind strategy, and how leaders drive change across organizations. Ideas alone are not enough; they must be framed in a way that people can understand, remember and act upon.

What makes this book particularly relevant for today’s global business environment is its emphasis on execution. McMahon outlines six key storytelling domains—value, product, brand, sales, leadership and culture—providing a framework that can be applied across international markets and diverse teams.

For global business leaders navigating increasingly complex and fragmented markets, the message is clear: data informs decisions, but stories drive action. In a world shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, cultural differences and digital noise, the ability to communicate a clear, compelling narrative may be one of the most underutilized competitive advantages available.

Key Takeaways for Global Businesspeople

The best story—not the best idea—often wins in global markets
Storytelling is a leadership tool, not just a marketing function
Clear narratives align teams across cultures and geographies
Customers buy meaning and identity, not just products
In uncertain environments, stories provide clarity and direction

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Country & Regional Updates

Africa

“Iran War Ignites African Race to Keep Gas Pumps Flowing – Adding to the grim outlook are the scores of shut refineries from Mombasa and Lusaka to Durban. The Persian Gulf was once a dependable, steady and conveniently located fuel supplier to meet Africa’s steadily rising demand. Most of the diesel that’s shipped out of the Strait of Hormuz usually headed to the continent. The US-Israel strikes on Iran have changed all that — effectively closing the crucial maritime chokepoint and leaving a gigantic fuel hole for developing nations to fill. The war has triggered a scramble by African nations to find new sources of petroleum, putting strained budget and fragile economic recoveries at risk. Many are merely weeks away from pumps running dry, with bigger and more powerful economies ahead in the queue.”, Bloomberg, March 18, 2026

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Asia

“Why Asia Hopes for a Short Mideast War – The conflict has already exposed structural vulnerabilities that can’t be fixed easily. The war in Iran has already had far-reaching consequences in the Asia-Pacific. The region is highly dependent on Middle Eastern oil, liquefied natural gas and petrochemicals, so the closure of the Strait of Hormuz immediately triggered inflationary pressure, supply chain disruptions and strategic uncertainty. In Southeast Asia, the impact of the war is widespread but uneven, reflecting significant differences in economic structure, energy dependencies and political priorities among ASEAN member states. Recent estimates suggest that around 60-70 percent of ASEAN’s crude oil imports originate from the Middle East, a substantial share of which transit the Strait of Hormuz.”, Geopolitical Futures, March 18, 2026

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Canada

“Canada’s economy is falling even further behind the U.S. by these key measures – The years-long boom in oil and other commodity prices that ended in spectacular fashion last decade masked how badly Canada’s weak labour productivity has weighed down the country’s economy since the late 1990s, a new report by Statistics Canada found. Yet since the turn of the millennium, Canada’s productivity gap with the U.S. has steadily widened, with relative productivity tumbling by 26 per cent over that time, according to the report.”, The Globe and Mail, March 26, 2026

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Cuba

“Cuba’s Energy Crisis – The U.S. has an interest in supporting political unrest on the island. Cuba’s energy crisis has been going on for years but is now taking on a geopolitical dimension. The country’s electricity infrastructure has two major vulnerabilities: fuel supply and physical maintenance. Since the U.S. deposed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in early January, Cuba has stopped receiving oil supplies from Caracas. Only Mexico and Russia have ventured to step in and provide Havana with oil. Cuba’s dilapidated electrical system also factors into the frequent, large-scale power outages experienced on the island.”, Geopolitical Futures, March 20, 2026

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United States

“At 250, sustaining America’s competitive edge – At 250 years old, the United States is the world’s most competitive economy. It generates 26 percent of global GDP and is home to 59 of the world’s top 100 firms. In the past several years, accelerating US productivity growth and announced foreign direct investment inflows have sharpened its edge over other advanced economies. Current generations owe it to future ones to address deteriorating fiscal health, eroding infrastructure, declining educational achievement, fading manufacturing know-how, and sustained disparities in income and wealth. Collective effort from American individuals, business, and government can ensure energy abundance, an infrastructure backbone, education that builds minds and skills to match new technology, and the financial strength to pay for it all. The prize is continued growth, national economic security, and economic opportunity for everyone.”, McKinsey & Co., March 9, 2026

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“U.S. Exports Set A Record But Mexico And Canada Not As Dominant – Mexico and Canada accounted for 30.65% of all U.S. exports in 2025, the lowest percentage since 1996 for the top two buyers of U.S. goods and USMCA partners, my analysis of Census Bureau data shows.”, Forbes, March 18, 2026. Article by Ken Roberts, Forbes Contributor.

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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification

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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News

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“Fast-growing Nothing Bundt Cakes is sold to KKR – The bundt cake chain, which is approaching $1 billion in system sales, is being sold at a reported value of $2 billion. It’s a rare exit for the private-equity firm Roark Capital. Dena Tripp and Debbie Schetz founded the concept in 1997 in Las Vegas based on the bundt cake, which itself is based on a German cake called the Gugelhopf. Nothing Bundt Cakes grew to 390 locations when Roark acquired the chain in 2021. The chain is mostly franchised. At the end of 2024 the chain operated 643 locations, up nearly 19% compared with the previous year, and meaning the brand has nearly doubled since Roark’s acquisition. A typical location makes about $1.4 million in revenue per year, according to Restaurant Business sister company Technomic.”, Restaurant Business, March 25, 2026

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“Red Lobster’s Last Gasp – The new CEO is pitching a turnaround story. Behind the scenes, the restaurant chain is treading water. Red Lobster, founded in 1968, once defined American casual dining, with more than 700 restaurants in the US and abroad at its peak. Since the early 2000s, an explosion of alternatives, including Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. and other fast-casual companies, has eroded its market share, along with those of its peers like TGI Friday’s. Wall Street pressure pushed Red Lobster’s longtime parent, Darden Restaurants Inc., to sell the chain; over the next decade it was passed around to various owners and investors, getting stripped of its quality and real estate along the way. The pandemic followed, which roiled the restaurant industry. Onerous real estate arrangements mean roughly 100 chronically unprofitable restaurants are draining any profit the rest of the chain brings in.”, Bloomberg, March 24, 2026

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“Krispy Kreme’s latest move to shed debt: Deals in Japan and US worth $160 million – As part of a corporate turnaround strategy, Krispy Kreme completed two major refranchising deals to drive “sustainable, profitable growth,” the company announced Tuesday. WKS Restaurant Group (Western U.S. Joint Venture) increased its ownership stake in the Western U.S. joint venture from 45% to 80%. Krispy Kreme received approximately $90 million, including $50 million in cash at closing. The joint venture added 23 former company-operated shops in California and Hawaii and plans to expand its fresh delivery network over the next several years. Unison Capital acquired Krispy Kreme’s operations in Japan on March 2 with nearly $70 million in cash. Last year, about 75% of Krispy Kreme’s sales were from company-operated locations…..Krispy Kreme aims to have franchisees generate nearly 50% of systemwide sales starting in fiscal 2027 through refranchising efforts, the report said.”, The Herald Online, March 26, 2026

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“The Philippines loves Jollibee. Overseas Filipinos love it even more – In the Philippines, where Jollibee operates over 1,000 outlets and is the dominant fast-food chain, it is simply part of the furniture. Overseas, it is something closer to a lifeline. There are now more than 80 Jollibee outlets across the US, with the very first opening in Daly City, California, in 1998. Worldwide, Jollibee operates over 1,600 stores in 17 countries – and its parent group runs more than 10,000 outlets in 33 countries through acquisitions including Tim Ho Wan, Smashburger and The Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf.”, The South China Morning Post, March 29, 2026

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To receive our biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. We do not get involved in or report on politics!

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William “Bill” Edwards: CEO & Global Trade Advisor “Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global”. With five decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service global management consultant since 2001 helping 40+ franchisors expand into new countries. Bill knows how to turn the challenges in taking a brand global into opportunities.

For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries successfully. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896

www.edwardsglobal.com

And download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business, used by many companies for strategic planning, at this link:

Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking

Biweekly Global Business Update Newsletter, Issue 156, Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Posted on Mar 16th, 2026 in Asia Pacific, Europe, India, Miscellaneous, Predictions and Trends, Professional Development, World Culture, World Economy | Comments Off

“The future is particularly unpredictable these days.”

Welcome to the 156th Edition of the Biweekly Global Business Update – The war now unfolding between Iran, Israel and the United States is rapidly becoming one of the most consequential geopolitical shocks to the global economy in decades. What began as a regional military confrontation has already triggered the largest disruption to global oil supply in modern history, sending energy markets, trade routes and supply chains into immediate turmoil.

At the center of the crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world’s daily 107 million barrels a day oil production and a large share of global liquefied natural gas normally flows. Missile attacks, security risks and insurance restrictions have sharply reduced tanker traffic through the strait, trapping a significant portion of global oil supplies on the far side of the Persian Gulf. Global oil supply is projected to fall by roughly 8 million barrels per day, forcing governments to release emergency reserves and pushing energy markets into heightened volatility.

As a result of the Iran war air freight rates are surging as airlines reroute flights around the conflict zone. Shipping delays are mounting across key trade corridors. Fertilizer markets are tightening as disruptions to natural gas supplies ripple through global agriculture supply chains. These pressures are beginning to push up costs across sectors ranging from transportation and manufacturing to food production.

All of this is unfolding at a moment when the global economy was already facing slowing growth, rising trade tensions and persistent inflation pressures.

For global business leaders, the message is clear: geopolitics is once again shaping the direction of the world economy. The Iran war now has the potential to influence energy prices, logistics costs, inflation and investment decisions across global markets in the months ahead.

The developments in my 156^th newsletter below illustrate how a single geopolitical flashpoint can rapidly ripple through energy markets, trade routes, supply chains and global growth. This will make the next few months a critical period for anyone doing business internationally.

This edition’s book review highlights: “Crisis: A Global Case Primer by Jason Miklian and John E Katsos , 2025. In a world defined by geopolitical shocks, supply-chain disruptions, pandemics, and financial volatility, Crisis: A Global Case Primer offers a timely and practical exploration of how organizations confront and sometimes survive moments of extreme uncertainty.

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To receive our biweekly newsletter by email every other Tuesday, click here https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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PLEASE NOTE: Some of the information sources that we provide links to in our newsletter require a paid subscription to directly access them. Clicking on a link may not give the reader access to the content.

Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Business Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with questions, comments and contributions. Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896

Link to our current and past newsletters: https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“The future is particularly unpredictable these days.”, Howard Marks

“The only thing new in the world is the history you do not know.”, Harry S. Truman

“We are not makers of history. We are made by history.”, Martin Luther King Jr.

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Highlights in issue #156:

The Energy Mix of the World’s 10 Largest Economies

Where the World’s Oil Comes From by Region

Oil Risk Highest for Philippine Bonds in Asia, China Insulated

Small Business Startup Sentiment Rebounds

Tricky negotiations begin Monday to renew a trade pact between the United States, Mexico and Canada

Why Private Equity Should Bet On International Franchising

Franchise Global News Section: Gong cha®, Papa John’s®, Jiffy Lube®, Mixue Bingcheng and Wendy’s®

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“The Energy Mix of the World’s 10 Largest Economies – Oil is the largest energy source in six of the world’s 10 biggest economies, including the U.S., Germany, Japan, the UK, and Italy. Coal dominates energy supply in China and India, accounting for nearly 60% of their energy mixes. France stands out for nuclear power, which provides over 46% of its energy mix, the highest share among the group. Oil remains the largest energy source in six of the 10 biggest economies, including the United States, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Italy. In these countries, oil plays a major role in transportation and industrial sectors. Italy has the highest reliance on oil among the group, with nearly 46% of its energy coming from petroleum. Germany and the UK also depend heavily on oil, though both have been expanding renewable energy capacity in recent years.”, Visual Capitalist and the Energy Institute, March 13, 2026

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“Where the World’s Oil Comes From by Region – North America is the world’s largest oil-producing region in 2025, generating over 31 million barrels per day, equal to nearly 30% of global supply. The Middle East produces over 29% of the world’s oil, led by Saudi Arabia and Iran. Europe, excluding Russia, produces less than 4% of total oil production, the smallest share by region. The world produced roughly 106 million barrels of oil per day in 2025, according to estimates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Just two regions dominate global supply. North America and the Middle East together produce nearly 60% of the world’s oil, underscoring their outsized influence on energy markets.”, Visual Capitalist and the U.S. Energy Information Administration, March 10, 2026

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes, Tariffs & Trade Issues

“Middle East War Is Causing Largest Oil Supply Disruption in History, IEA Says – Oil supply is projected to plunge by 8 million barrels a day in March. The International Energy Agency slashed its oil supply growth forecast to 1.1 million b/d this year amid the Middle East war. IEA member countries released 400 million barrels from emergency stocks, the largest in history, as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. The IEA now expects global oil demand to rise by 640,000 b/d this year, down from an earlier 850,000 b/d forecast. In March, supply is projected to plunge by 8 million barrels a day to 98.8 million barrels a day, the lowest levels since the first quarter of 2022.”, The Wall Street Journal, March 12, 2026

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“Air freight rates soar as Middle East conflict blocks trade routes – “Air freight rates have risen by as much as 70% on some routes since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, data shows, as the conflict limits flights, blocks some ocean shipments and pushes up jet fuel costs. Rates ‌on routes between South Asia and Europe have been the most affected by Middle Eastern airspace closures and security issues, industry experts said, after the conflict has stranded more than 100 container ships in the area around the critical Strait of Hormuz oil export corridor. “The shift to air cargo is significant because air freight handles about one-third of global trade by value, making rate spikes a potential inflationary pressure on goods ranging from fresh food to pharmaceuticals and electronics.”, Reuters, March 13, 2026

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“The damage to the world economy from the Iran war will be severe, but uneven – It has already caused the biggest energy supply shock in history. And the shock emanating now from the Strait of Hormuz is huge. Iranian missiles have trapped about 15% of global oil supplies on the far side of the strait. That is roughly twice the disruption the world suffered in the 1970s, offsetting the fact that the energy-intensity of the world economy has fallen by half since then. About a fifth of the world’s shipments of liquefied natural gas (lng) have been halted, too, and the shock is spreading to other commodities. The price of fertiliser, which is made using natural gas, is surging, stoking fears of food shortages.”, The Economist, March 12, 2026

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“Fertilizer Stocks Jump With Shipments Stuck at the Strait of Hormuz – Investors flock to U.S. fertilizer producers, which can access cheap natural gas; farmers are expected to shift to less-dependent crops. The Middle East fighting has choked off big chunks of the world’s supply of ammonia, urea, sulfur and phosphates. It has also blocked roughly 20% of the supply of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, upon which fertilizer makers in Europe and elsewhere rely. Benchmark natural-gas prices in Europe have climbed 58% since the U.S.-Israeli bombardment of Iran began. For American farmers already shouldering higher costs, the Mideast disruption has boosted prices for certain fertilizers by about 30%.”, The Wall Street Journal, March 12, 2026

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“Allies to Trump: We’ll Live With Tariffs, Just Don’t Make Them Any Higher – U.S. trading partners are pushing President Trump to stick to previously agreed tariff levels after his administration kicked off probes aimed at replacing the levies struck down by the Supreme Court. This past week, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the U.S. was starting investigations under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, citing what he called unfair practices such as running trade surpluses and building up too much industrial capacity. The move is likely to lead to tariffs on most of America’s major trading partners including the European Union, Mexico, China, Japan, South Korea, India and others.”, The Wall Street Journal, March 14, 2026

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“Tricky negotiations begin Monday to renew a trade pact between the United States, Mexico and Canada – Every day more than $4 billion worth of goods cross the United States’ borders with Canada and Mexico – U.S. auto parts headed for car factories in northern Mexico, cartons of Mexican avocados bound for California supermarkets, Canadian aluminum destined to become cans of Campbell Soup. Much of this bustling cross-border commerce is duty-free, thanks to the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, that President Donald Trump negotiated with America’s northern and southern neighbors during his first term. But the future of the USMCA , which took effect July 1, 2020, is cloudy as the three countries begin what could be a tempestuous attempt to renew the pact this year. The United States is demanding changes to the treaty, and the top U.S. trade negotiator told Politico in December that Trump would be willing to pull the United States out of the pact if he can’t get the deal he wants. Trump also suggested last fall that the United States could negotiate separate deals with Canada and Mexico, ending the three-country North American bloc that previous administrations saw as crucial to competing economically with China and the European Union.” AP News, March 15, 2026

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Global & Regional Travel News

“How wars are adding hours to your flights – Visitors to the Gulf and passengers transiting through the region’s busy airports have been stranded. In March last year a typical 48-hour period saw more than 3,700 passenger planes pass over the Persian Gulf. More than half were either bound for, or departed from, Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, or Doha, Qatar’s capital. On March 3rd and 4th this year just 47 flights crossed the same stretch of sky. The most recent data, from March 11th, show around 220 departures from Dubai—roughly a third of the normal number and half of those scheduled. That same day just 16 flights departed from Doha, 5% of the average.”, The Economist, March 12, 2026

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Book Review

“Crisis: A Global Case Primer by Jason Miklian and John E Katsos , 2025. In a world defined by geopolitical shocks, supply-chain disruptions, pandemics, and financial volatility, Crisis: A Global Case Primer offers a timely and practical exploration of how organizations confront and sometimes survive moments of extreme uncertainty.

Rather than presenting abstract theory, the book examines a series of real-world crises across industries and countries. Each case illustrates how leaders faced rapidly evolving situations where information was incomplete, risks were cascading, and the margin for error was razor thin. The authors emphasize that crises rarely arrive in isolation. Economic pressure, political instability, reputational damage, and operational breakdowns often intersect, forcing leaders to make decisions under extraordinary stress.

One of the book’s strongest messages is that crisis management is not primarily about reaction. It is about preparation. Organizations that invest in scenario planning, resilient supply chains, and empowered leadership teams are far more capable of navigating disruption. Those that rely on rigid hierarchies or slow decision-making processes often find themselves overwhelmed when events accelerate.

For global business leaders, the book reinforces an increasingly clear reality: the operating environment of the 2020s will remain volatile. From geopolitical competition to climate shocks and technological disruption, executives must assume that crises will occur and build organizations capable of absorbing them.

The ultimate lesson is simple but powerful: resilience is now a core strategic capability.

Five Takeaways for Global Businesspeople

Crises are inevitable — preparation determines survival.
Speed of decision-making matters more than perfect information.
Communication is a strategic tool during uncertainty.
Global supply chains require redundancy and diversification.
Leadership culture determines how organizations respond under stress.

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Country & Regional Updates

Argentina

“Argentina Inflation Topped Estimates Ahead of Iran War Shock – Argentina’s monthly inflation rose 2.9% in February, above the 2.8% median estimate of economists, while annual inflation accelerated to 33.1% from 32.4%. Food and non-alcoholic beverages, driven by beef, contributed the most to last month’s price increases, while housing and utilities rose the most, according to Indec. The inflation rate in March is likely to edge higher due to the fallout from the US and Israeli attacks on Iran, especially creeping gasoline and diesel prices and higher costs for fertilizers.”, Bloomberg, March 12, 2026

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China

“More abundance, less prosperity: why 2 Chinas are emerging – For observers accustomed to a market economy, China’s can look like a contradiction. On the one hand, it is an unstoppable juggernaut, a manufacturing superpower with a US$1 trillion-plus trade surplus demonstrating its prowess and leverage across supply chains. China is also moving up the value chain, producing steel and widgets while also leading the world in solar panels, electric vehicles and the batteries that power them, industrial robots and more. On the other hand, the costs of this tech and export dominance are increasingly apparent. The wealth of households suffers with falling real estate values, recent graduates face a market with 17.8 per cent youth unemployment as of last summer, wages are falling, deflation is growing and an estimated 12 per cent of registered companies are “zombies”.”, The South China Morning Post, March 12, 2026

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Canada

“Canada sheds more than 100,000 jobs in first two months of year – Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.7%, according to the latest labour figures released on Friday – the second-highest among wealthy G7 nations, behind France. February saw the sharpest drop in employment since the Covid-19 pandemic, wiping out much of the job growth recorded late last year, with the wholesale and retail trade sector taking the biggest hit. The US is by far Canada’s largest export market, leaving it especially vulnerable to American tariffs. Around three-quarters of Canadian goods were sold to the US, though that share has fallen to about 67% in recent months.”, BBC, March 13, 2026

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“What would $100 oil mean for Canada? The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil is off its highs since hitting US$120 a barrel on Monday. But traders won’t be resting easy just yet. How would Canada fare under such a scenario? The broad answer is ‘better than most countries,’ although it depends on which Canadian you ask; all relative price changes create winners and losers. The key to the outlook is the Canadian dollar. Canada’s oil exports averaged 4.3 million barrels a day over the past year, accounting for 20 per cent of total exports by value. Assuming US$100 oil prices and a modest bump in output, that figure would rise to around 25 to 30 per cent.”, The Globe and Mail, March 12, 2026

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European Union

“EU Economies Can’t Catch a Break – The risk of stagflation grows if the energy squeeze continues. The European economy failed to sustain its modest momentum in the fourth quarter of 2025, with growth slowing to 0.2 percent compared with the previous quarter. The war in the Middle East has already disrupted oil and gas supplies, driving up the price of Brent crude by approximately 40 percent and pushing European gas to its highest level since January 2023.”, Geopolitical Futures, March 13, 2026

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Latin America

“Meet the retail giant that’s actually beating Amazon – A $90 billion company dominant in Latin America is rapidly growing with tailored e-commerce and fintech services. Founded in 1999 in Buenos Aires, Argentina, MercadoLibre Inc. is an e-commerce and financial services company operating in 18 countries throughout Latin America, with Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina serving as its largest markets. The company faces margin challenges but maintains strong revenue growth and bullish analyst ratings. Amazon remains larger globally, expanding in AI and AWS, but also faces cost pressures and competition. Many U.S. consumers may not yet be familiar with the company, primarily because it doesn’t currently operate in the U.S. market. However, across Latin America, it has become one of the region’s most influential technology companies. Like Amazon, MercadoLibre functions as a one-stop shopping platform offering a broad range of products and services. The company emphasizes localization by adapting its marketplace to each country’s language, payment preferences, logistics, and consumer habits, an approach that helped it scale across diverse markets.”, The Street, March 12, 2026

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The Philippines

“Oil Risk Highest for Philippine Bonds in Asia, China Insulated – Peso-denominated debt has shown the highest sensitivity and the most consistent reaction to crude spikes in recent years, according to a Bloomberg analysis of five events since 2022. Rising oil prices pose a threat to many of Asia’s emerging markets. But Philippines’ consumption-driven economy is particularly vulnerable given a heavy reliance on imports, quicker transmission of fuel costs into transport and food prices, and a currency that’s trading near record lows. Meanwhile, bonds in China — the world’s largest oil importer — have fared relatively better during the oil spike episodes even as they fell Monday amid a global selloff. The nation’s authorities seek to limit the impact of surging costs through price controls, subsidies and state influence in key sectors, reducing pressure on yields.”, Bloomberg, March 10, 2026

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Poland

“Poland is now among the world’s 20 largest economies. How it happened – A generation ago, Poland rationed sugar and flour while its citizens were paid one-tenth what West Germans earned. Today, the economy of the country has edged past Switzerland to become the world’s 20th largest with more than $1 trillion in annual output. In 35 years — a little less than one person’s working lifetime — Poland’s per capita GDP rose to $55,340 in 2025, or 85% of the EU average. That’s up from $6,730 in 1990, or 38% of the EU average and now roughly equal to Japan’s $52,039, according to International Monetary Fund figures measured in today’s dollars and adjusted for Poland’s lower cost of living. Poland’s economy has grown an average 3.8% a year since joining the EU in 2004, easily beating the European average of 1.8%.”, AP News, March 16, 2026

Editor’s Note: I lived in Eastern Europe in 1999-2001 running a company doing business in the Czech republic, Hungary and Poland. In those days Poland was by far the poorest of the three countries. The GDP/capita of Poland was ~US$4,090 in 1999 versus US$55,340 today

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United Kingdom

“U.K. Economy Unexpectedly Stalled in January – GDP showed no growth, compared with a 0.1% rise in December. The U.K. economy stalled unexpectedly in January, with a sustained return to modest growth likely to be hindered further by the rise in energy prices and uncertainty that has accompanied the conflict in the Middle East. Gross domestic product showed no growth in the month, compared with a 0.1% rise in December, the Office for National Statistics said Friday. Production output slipped on month in January, while services stagnated, according to the ONS.”, The Wall Street Journal, March 13, 2026

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United States

“US Trade Gap Narrowed in January by More Than Projected – The US trade deficit narrowed in January as exports increased, coming off of a turbulent year for domestic importers contending with erratic tariff policy. Exports increased 5.5% in January from the prior month, fueled by outbound shipments of nonmonetary gold and other precious metals, as well as computers and aircraft. The gap in goods and services trade shrank to $54.5 billion, with overall imports falling 0.7%, reflecting a decline in pharmaceuticals.”, Bloomberg, March 12, 2026

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“Here’s Where the U.S. Economy Is Most Vulnerable to Iran War – Previous Mideast conflicts have caused recession. Today’s economy has more insulation from oil shock, but is showing some strains. The Middle East conflict has pushed oil prices to nearly four-year highs, increasing gasoline and diesel prices by 65 cents and $1.13 respectively. Analysts warn that costlier fuel could raise U.S. inflation and curb consumer spending, potentially slowing economic growth. Airlines and farmers face rising costs, while the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.11% as of March 12.”, The Wall Street Journal, March 13, 2026

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“Small Business Startup Sentiment Rebounds – Startup sentiment rebounded in February 2026 surveys as business buyer surveys showed 58.1% of persons exploring ownership agree or strongly agree that “now is a good time for startup”, up from 30% in December. This increase in sentiment about business conditions is consistent with a modest February increase in consumer confidence and revised January Conference Boardsurvey readings. In January, half (50%) of respondents “neither agreed nor disagreed” with the statement “now is a good time for starting a business”, but they were more confident in February, with less than 5% saying they “disagreed” or “strongly disagreed” with the positive sentiment. Coincidently, 58.1% of respondents say they are more likely to start a business now than three months ago.”, Franchise Insights and News, March 11, 2026

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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification

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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News

“Why Private Equity Should Bet On International Franchising – Private equity (PE) has become one of the strongest growth engines in franchising. Over the past two decades, investors have helped modernize operations, drive scale, and professionalize management across dozens of leading brands. Yet one area often doesn’t receive the attention it deserves: international expansion. Some of the most successful PE investors in franchising have made acquiring the rights to franchises with international expansion a key aspect of their growth strategy. International expansion is not a distraction. It is a multiplier. It creates diversified, sustainable royalties that compound over time while up-front fees generate cash today. In the end, international expansion is not just about new markets; it’s about building a more valuable company.”, Franchising.com, March 15, 2026. This article is by your newsletter Editor, William Edwards.

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“Wendy’s plans 60 new restaurants in Mexico through partnerships – Wendy’s (WEN) currently operates 40 restaurants across Mexico, including locations in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, Monterrey, and Mexico City. Wendy’s long-term goal targets 400 restaurants across the country. By comparison, McDonald’s (MCD) operates 374 restaurants, while Burger King (QSR) operates 435 restaurants across Mexico.”, Seeking Alpha, March 4, 2026

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“Slim Chickens Makes Ireland Debut with First Restaurant in Dublin – Proven Multi-Unit Franchise Partners Extend Growth into a New International Market. Located in the Dundrum Town Centre, one of Ireland’s premier shopping and dining destinations, the restaurant serves as a lunch point for the brand’s entry into the Irish market and demonstrates the system’s ability to adapt to high-footfall, urban retail environments while maintain operational consistency.”, Franchising.com, February 11, 2026.

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“Franchising North of the Border: Legal Realities for U.S. Brands Entering Canada – Despite recent political commentary about Canada becoming America’s 51st state, Canada remains a sovereign nation with its own legal system, judiciary, and rule of law. For U.S. businesses, this distinction matters in practical and legal terms. In contrast to the U.S., which has both federal and state-level franchise legislation, Canada regulates franchising exclusively at the provincial level.”, Franchising.com, March 13, 2026. From and article by Jennifer Shayko is a franchise lawyer with Aird & Berlis LLP.

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“How to Know Your Emerging Franchise Brand is Ready for International Expansion – International expansion is one of the fastest ways to stress-test a brand. Distance, as well as cultural and legal differences, magnify every gap from support and training to documentation to unit economics. If a system isn’t truly ready, those gaps compound quickly. While each brand’s path is different, there are a few practical benchmarks and readiness signals that come up again and again.”, Franchising.com, March 13, 2026. From an article by Jason Carter, the chief operating officer of Shoot 360.

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“Papa John’s Draws Fresh Takeover Interest From Qatari-Backed Fund – Irth Capital submits bid to take pizza-chain private. Irth offered to pay $47 per share for the business, the people said, which would value Papa Johns at around $1.5 billion. The offer price represents a roughly 50% premium to where Papa Johns’s shares traded before Irth’s bid was submitted, the people said. Irth, an existing shareholder in Papa Johns, recently increased its effective stake to around 10%, one of the people familiar with the matter said.”, The Wall Street Journal, March 12, 2026

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“The Biggest Fast Food Chain In The World Is One You’ve Probably Never Heard Of – Move over, McDonald’s. Mixue Ice Cream & Tea, headquartered in China, has more locations than any other chain in the world, with more than 45,000 outposts. The brand is known for affordable soft-serve ice cream, teas, and other beverages. If its Chinese name, Mixue Bingcheng (which translates to honey snow ice city), doesn’t ring a bell, get ready for a frosty introduction. The beloved brand is known for soft-serve ice cream cones starting at just $1.19 and for teas and other beverages starting at $1.99. Its affordability is one of the biggest drivers of its mass appeal.”, Delish, March 10, 2026

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“Shell to Sell Jiffy Lube to Monomoy in $1.3 Billion Deal – The sale includes the Jiffy Lube brand, franchisee Premium Velocity Auto and a network of stores owned and operated by independent franchisees. Jiffy Lube has more than 2,000 locations. Shell said it is “capitalizing on a strong market opportunity.” It said the divestment allows it to monetize an asset that isn’t central to its lubricants portfolio in the U.S. and reinvest in higher-return opportunities. Jiffy Lube makes up 6.5% of the volume of Shell’s U.S. and Canada total lubricants business.”, The Wall Street Journal, March 10, 2026

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“Gong cha buys 170 US stores from master franchisee – The purchase will help the bubble tea brand strengthen its U.S. system and ultimately speed up growth as it targets 1,000 units in the country. Gong cha recently announced an overhaul of its store model and operations that includes a new automated drink-making platform that cuts prep time for drinks by roughly a minute, the company said in a separate press release. This technology could help it take advantage of the expanding cold beverage market in the U.S. ‘Bringing this territory in-house allows us to further sharpen our development strategy and strengthen support for our franchise partners,’ said Geoff Henry, the company’s president for the Americas.”, Restaurant Dive, March 9, 2026

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To receive our biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

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www.edwardsglobal.com

And download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business, used by many companies for strategic planning, at this link:

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Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 155, Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Posted on Mar 2nd, 2026 in Asia Pacific, Europe, India, Miscellaneous, Predictions and Trends, Professional Development, World Culture, World Economy | Comments Off

“The more you know about the past, the better prepared you are for the future.”

Welcome to the 155th Edition of the Biweekly Global Business Update – As we have learned once again over the past few days, we cannot control wars, elections, or geopolitical rivalry. We can control preparedness, financial discipline, partner selection, and long-term orientation. The companies that will thrive in this cycle will not be those that predicted events correctly. They will be those built to withstand them, those that are resilient. That is the task in front of us as global businesspeople.

We are operating in a different global environment than we were just a few years ago. Tariff policy remains fluid. AI is accelerating competitive cycles. Capital markets are repricing risk. Wars in Europe and the Middle East continue to affect energy markets, shipping routes, defense spending, and political alignment. Tensions in Asia remain unresolved. Geopolitical fragmentation is shaping supply chains, regulatory regimes, and capital flows in real time.

For those of us in global business, this is not background noise. It is the operating framework. The proper response is not optimism or pessimism. It is discipline and resilience.

Planning must be continuous. Static projections have limited value in a world of sanctions risk, tariff shifts, currency volatility, and regulatory change. Scenario modeling, downside preparation, and execution flexibility are now core management functions. No more 5-year strategic plans.

Geopolitical literacy has moved to the center of board-level decision-making. Active conflicts and regional instability influence insurance costs, logistics, commodity pricing, cybersecurity exposure, and capital access. Political risk can no longer be delegated or ignored.

Balance-sheet strength matters. Liquidity, conservative leverage, diversified sourcing, and regional redundancy are strategic assets in a conflict-prone, interest-rate-sensitive environment. As Winston Churchill once said, “However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results.”

Markets ~~will~~ always react to headlines. Effective leadership does not. It evaluates exposure, recalibrates when necessary, and moves forward deliberately.

International expansion should be phased and intentional — city by city, partner by partner, capital deployed carefully. Lack of focus is punished quickly in volatile cycles.

This edition’s book review highlights: In “Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise” Dr. Susan L. Shirk (2022) delivers one of the clearest explanations of how China’s carefully managed “peaceful rise” shifted into a far more assertive global posture. For decades, China’s rise to power was characterized by its reassurance that this rise would be peaceful. Then, as Dr. Shirk, shows in this sobering, clear-eyed account of China today, something changed.

Drawing on decades of research and direct policy experience, she makes an important point: China’s current trajectory is not simply the product of one leader’s ambition. It reflects deeper institutional dynamics, domestic political pressures, bureaucratic competition, and rising nationalism that gradually reduced strategic restraint.

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To receive our biweekly newsletter by email every other Tuesday, click here https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Link to our current and past newsletters: https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“The more you know about the past, the better prepared you are for the future.”, Theodore Roosevelt

“The essence of strategy is choosing what not to do.”, Michael Porter

“However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results.”, Winston Churchill

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Highlights in issue #155:

The World’s Richest Countries vs. the Happiest Countries

Global Worries, Local Priorities

Transforming Europe: Bold moves to lift a continent

Vietnam is on track to overtake Canada as a source of U.S. imports

Where Food Inflation Will Hit Hardest in 2026

Global Cash Is Fueling a Historic Start for Latam Stocks

Argentina’s Economy Expands More Than Expected After Midterm Election

Franchise Global News Section: Applebee’s®, KFC® and Papa John’s®

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, January 2026 – Overall global economic sentiment is improving, with businesses more positive about future growth in line with the IMF’s upward growth revisions; several central banks cut interest rates in December. After a year dominated by concerns over trade and global turbulence, businesses are entering 2026 with more optimism—despite continued uncertainty. Indeed, business sentiment was more buoyant in the final quarter of 2025 than in previous quarters, according to the recent McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions. Executives were more upbeat about future economic expectations than they had been in previous 2025 surveys, with respondents expressing the brightest near-term expectations of the year—this in comparison with three previous quarters of largely negative assessments of current global economic and trade conditions.”, McKinsey & Co., February 24, 2026

Editor’s Note: This survey was published before the Iran event that started on February 28^th.

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“The World’s Richest Countries vs. the Happiest Countries – Several Nordic countries rank among both the richest and happiest in the world. Some ultra-wealthy nations, including Singapore and Qatar, do not make the top 20 for happiness. Only a handful of countries appear near the top of both rankings. The world’s richest countries generate staggering income per person. But when it comes to life satisfaction, some of the wealthiest nations fall surprisingly short. This graphic compares GDP per capita (PPP), based on IMF data, with happiness scores from the World Happiness Report, which asks people to rate their lives on a scale from 0 to 10.”, Visual Capitalist, International Monetary Fund and the World Happiness Report, February 27, 2026

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“Global Growth Expected to Slow in 2026 – 2025 could have been worse. According to the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report, the global economy in 2025 demonstrated greater resilience than expected, given trade tensions and political uncertainty, thanks to stronger-than-expected growth in the largest economies. To some extent, the surge of trade before the U.S. tariff hikes, as well as gradual monetary easing, supported economic activity. However, the World Bank does not see this hopeful trend continuing in 2026. As the favorable factors supporting the largest economies fade, the lagging impact of new trade barriers will come to the fore. This points to a continuation of trade tensions and policy uncertainty, leading the World Bank to forecast a decline in the rate of real GDP growth in several regions and economies.”, Geopolitical Futures, February 20, 2026

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“Global Worries, Local Priorities – The Munich Security Index 2026 has unveiled divergence in the most pressing risks perceived by populations across the globe. Based on a survey of around 1,000 adults per country conducted in November 2025, the report highlights how different nations prioritize threats, ranging from climate change to geopolitical tensions. The index scores obtained (0 to 100) cover five dimensions of risks: overall impact, trajectory, severity, imminence and preparedness. In Brazil, concerns about climate change (index score=78), extreme weather and forest fires (77) top the list…. Similarly, India ranks climate change (53) and the destruction of natural habitats (51) as its primary worries….For Germany and the United Kingdom, cyberattacks (75 and 74, respectively) emerge as the foremost concern….Meanwhile, economic and financial crises are a shared priority in Japan (70), the United Kingdom (70) and the United States (67), while political polarization (67) is also seen as a major risk in America.”, Munich Security Report 2026, February 15, 2026

Editor’s Note: This report was released prior to the late February 2026 Iran conflict start

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes, Tariffs & Trade Issues

“Trump spares EU and UK from higher tariff rates for now – Tariffs on exports to the United States will remain at 10 percent. U.S. President Donald Trump has U-turned on his threat to raise his new global tariffs to 15 percent, sparing Britain and the European Union from higher rates. Trump’s decision not to follow through on the threat means continuity for British businesses. U.K. exports already faced 10 percent duties, plus Most Favored Nation (MFN) rates, under Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.”, Politco EU, February 24, 2026

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“America’s trade chaos is just beginning – Tariff wrangling will stretch through the rest of Donald Trump’s term, and beyond. On February 20th America’s Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s signature policy. The president claimed the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 let him slap any tariffs he wanted on anyone for any length of time. The justices ruled 6-3 that Congress did not hide in IEEPA ‘a delegation of its birth-right power to tax within the quotidian power to ‘regulate’, as Chief Justice John Roberts wrote in the majority opinion. Within hours of the decision Mr Trump invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, to levy 10% tariffs on all imports for 150 days from February 24th. The next day he said he would raise the level to 15%, the highest the law permits. Before the justices weighed in, America’s effective tariff rate was 13.7%, estimates the Yale Budget Lab. Swap IEEPA for Section 122 tariffs of 15% and this edges down to 12.2% (see chart 1). By comparison, the figure was 2-3% before Mr Trump took office for the second time in January 2025.”, The Economist, February 26, 2026

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“Where Food Inflation Will Hit Hardest in 2026 – Iran tops the list with a projected 55.9% surge, far above the global average of 3.2%. Currency pressures and prior inflation spikes continue to ripple through food prices. Argentina (33.2%) and Türkiye (25.1%) rank second and third, continuing multi-year inflation trends in both economies. Countries like Malawi, Nigeria, Angola, Zambia, and Ethiopia all rank among the highest projected increases, underscoring ongoing food vulnerability in the region. Food prices remain one of the most persistent cost pressures for households worldwide. In 2026, grocery bills are projected to rise sharply in some countries, while remaining relatively stable in others. Food inflation is influenced by currency movements, commodity prices, trade disruptions, and domestic supply conditions. Countries experiencing currency depreciation or ongoing economic instability tend to see sharper increases in food costs.”, Visual Capitalist & Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, February 25, 2026

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This really interesting infographic from 2025 is compliments of Martha Montoya, CEO of AgTools, Inc.

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Global & Regional Travel News

“Airspace closures across Middle East cause flight cancellations after strikes on Iran – The real-time flight tracking service FlightRadar24 showed airspace closures across the region on Saturday, including in the UAE, Qatar, Jordan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Israel, Kuwait and Bahrain. Several major airports have suspended operations until further notice, including Dubai International Airport (DXB) — the world’s second busiest airport — Zayed International Airport (AUH) in Abu Dhabi and Hamad International Airport (DOH) in Doha. Though many other airports in the Middle East remain open, passengers should check with individual airlines for the latest updates before heading to the airport, as cancellations may vary. Both Gulf airlines and international carriers that fly through the region have issued travel waivers in light of the conflict, allowing passengers to easily change or cancel flights.”, The Points Guy, February 28, 2026

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Book Review

“In “Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise”, Dr. Susan L. Shirk, 2022, delivers one of the clearest explanations of how China’s carefully managed “peaceful rise” shifted into a far more assertive global posture. For decades, China’s rise to power was characterized by its reassurance that this rise would be peaceful. Then, as Susan L. Shirk, shows in this sobering, clear-eyed account of China today, something changed.

Shirk shows how China’s expanding economic and military power, combined with internal legitimacy concerns, produced policies that unsettled neighbors and hardened U.S. attitudes. Actions in the South China Sea, toward Taiwan, and through economic coercion accelerated distrust and fueled structural rivalry with the United States. What we are now experiencing is not a temporary diplomatic downturn. It is sustained strategic competition.

Her warning is equally important: misreading China’s internal drivers increases the risk of overreaction abroad — and miscalculation on either side. For global business leaders, that distinction matters. Today’s friction is rooted in long-term structural forces, not short-term political cycles.

That reality should shape how we assess risk, partnerships, supply chains, and long-term China exposure.

Five Takeaways for Global Business Leaders

1. China’s external behavior is heavily influenced by internal political dynamics.

2. Strategic rivalry with the United States is structural and likely enduring.

3. Economic interdependence no longer guarantees stability.

4. Domestic legitimacy pressures in Beijing affect global markets.

5. Miscalculation — more than ideology — is the principal risk to global business stability.

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Country & Regional Updates

Latin America

“Global Cash Is Fueling a Historic Start for Latam Stocks – Global investors are piling into Latin American stocks at the fastest clip in a decade, sending markets across the region to multi-year highs. The MSCI EM Latin America Index has jumped over 20% in 2026, marking the strongest start to the year since 1991, and has capped a ninth successive week of gains. Investors see potential for local policy shifts and lower interest rates ahead of presidential elections in Brazil and Colombia, and the strike-down of President Trump’s tariffs is another tailwind for the region’s equity revival.”, Bloomberg, February 22, 2026

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Argentina

Argentina’s economy grew more than expected in December due in part to a historic wheat harvest that offset the fallout from a pivotal midterm election. From a year earlier, the economy grew 3.5%, far surpassing the estimate of zero growth from economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The data should provide some relief to President Javier Milei’s administration and bolster hopes for his macreoeconomic program. The farm and finance sectors contributed significantly to the economy’s growth in last year’s final month, while manufacturing and retail fell. Overall economic growth was slow last year as monthly activity expanded only 0.02% in the first 11 months of the year, according to a research note from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.”, Bloomberg, February 24, 2026

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Southeast Asia

“AI in Southeast Asia: An era of opportunity – A region on the rise for
AI opportunities. AI adoption in Southeast Asia is at an inflection point—moving rapidly from exploration to deployment. With strong digital foundations, tech-savvy enterprises, and a young, connected population, the region’s major economies are accelerating toward global competitiveness. Nearly half of Southeast Asian companies surveyed have moved beyond AI pilots, putting the region slightly ahead of the global average. This momentum is driven by a mobile-first consumer base, skilled talent, and local solution providers—creating fertile ground for rapid AI scaling, despite limited policy intervention.”, McKinsey & Co., February 10, 2026

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Canada

“Canadian job growth flatlines in 2025 on trade war, population slowdown – Canada’s job growth stalled in 2025 as key sectors of the economy, such as manufacturing, were hit hard by the trade war, weakening labour demand and prompting employers to shelve hiring plans. The number of employees nationwide receiving pay and benefits from an employer fell by 28,300 or 0.2 per cent last year, Statistics Canada reported on Thursday. At the same time, Canada’s population has started to decline because of major immigration policy changes that are aimed at reducing the number of temporary residents in the country.”, The Global and Mail, February 26, 2026

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China

“How to get rich in modern China – Some of the country’s brightest are cashing in on a state-backed surge. A property bust and chronic deflation have eroded people’s assets, incomes and prospects. Residential property, where Chinese people store the bulk of their wealth, has lost a fifth of its value on average since 2021. Wage growth is weak. And youth unemployment is hovering around 17%. But in a sea of people losing, one group is winning. They are what Xi Jinping, China’s leader, calls nongchaoer: a Chinese term referring to those who “ride the tide” of great economic changes. Today that tide is flowing towards the strategic technologies, such as artificial intelligence and robotics, that dominate the country’s five-year plans for tech supremacy……Smart, young and sometimes from modest backgrounds, the nongchaoer do not flash their growing wealth.”, The Economist, February 24, 2026

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Europe

“Transforming Europe: Bold moves to lift a continent – Europe is starting to reform its investment environment, but there’s no time to lose. Standout companies can take the lead with bold strategic moves that drive their own performance—and a continent’s. This article extends our analysis of the critical contribution companies can make to a European economic renaissance, including through a more strategic approach to collaborating with the public sector to shape the investment environment. Such an economic renaissance would benefit everyone. As the McKinsey Global Institute argues in its new book, A Century of Plenty, it is economic growth and rising incomes that enable many of the things Europeans care about: better health and education outcomes, better physical and social infrastructure, investments into climate change mitigation and adaptation, and investments into security and sovereignty. With growing consensus on what’s needed, now’s the time for both sides to accelerate.”, McKinsey & Co., January 20, 2026

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South Korea

“South Korea baby bump grows – Fertility rate and total births rise for second year but experts say demographic outlook remains gloomy. Korea’s total fertility rate — the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime — climbed to 0.8 last year, up from 0.75 in 2024 and an all-time low of 0.72 in 2023, official data released on Wednesday showed. The figure was better than even the government’s most optimistic projections for 2025 but remains far below the 2.1 threshold that demographers consider necessary to maintain a stable population, absent net immigration. South Korea has been grappling with a long-term demographic crisis, as an ageing and shrinking population raises pensions and healthcare costs and hits projections for economic output.”, The Financial Times, February 24, 2026

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Turkey

“Turkey M&A Volume Surges as Mega Deals Rebound, Deloitte Says – A total of 450 transactions were completed in 2025, up 6% from 2024, with the total deal size increasing 88% to $16.2 billion. The upswing was driven by mega deals, with seven transactions valued at more than $500 million representing 44% of the total deal size. Financial investor activity more than doubled in Turkey in 2025, with total transaction value rising 109% to $4.6 billion. Larger deals were fueled in part by improving investor confidence, which eased the way for companies and financiers to revive previously postponed plans, Deloitte said. The largest deal of the past year was the $1.7 billion privatization of Turkey’s Vehicle Inspection Stations by the MOI Consortium.”, Bloomberg, February 23, 2026

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United States

“Gasoline Prices Will Rise – But How High And For How Long? Amid the myriad uncertainties created by the new conflict in the Middle East region, the one thing we can be sure of is that gasoline prices at the pump will go up in the United States and around the world. The only real questions in that regard are: How high will they go, and how long will they linger? However, in this current conflict in which the United States and Israel are involved in a kinetic exchange with Iran, a single factor holds the key. That single factor is the Strait of Hormuz, the choke point at the mouth of the Persian Gulf through which 20-25% of global crude supply flows onto the global market every day, and whether Iran might mount a successful attack to shut that flow down.”, Forbes, February 28, 2026

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“US GDP growth falls sharply to 1.4% rate in fourth quarter – Figure hit by drop in government spending during federal shutdown comes in far below analysts’ expectations. Friday’s figure from the Bureau of Economic Analysis was sharply down from 4.4 per cent in the previous three-month period and fell well short of expectations of 2.8 per cent in a Bloomberg poll of economists. It comes after an unprecedented 43-day federal government shutdown in October and November that the BEA said knocked a point off growth. A slowdown in consumer spending also weighed on GDP, offset slightly by an uptick in business investment.”, The Financial Times, February 20, 2026

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Vietnam

“Vietnam is on track to overtake Canada as a source of U.S. imports – While U.S. tariffs have hammered Canada’s export sector, Vietnam has emerged a surprising winner in the trade dispute, despite facing an effective tariff rate four times higher than that of Canada. In fact, if the current trajectory of U.S. imports holds, Vietnam could surpass Canada as a share of U.S. imports, highlighting the fraying trade links between Canada and the United States. Under the Trump 1.0 and Biden administrations, the U.S. sought to lessen its reliance on China for low-cost imports through the use of tariffs and other trade restrictions. As such, manufacturers shifted a lot of production to Vietnam instead. Last year, Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. soared 42 per cent to US$194-billion, while U.S.-bound shipments from Canada declined 7 per cent to US$383-billion.”, The Global and Mail, February 27, 2026

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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News

“Papa Johns is closing 300 restaurants and cutting staff – The pizza chain’s North America same-store sales have fallen for seven of the past eight quarters. It is cutting 7% of its workforce while closing underperforming restaurants and eliminating menu items. Papa Johns CEO Todd Penegor also said that the chain is planning ‘at least $25 million in cost savings outside of marketing’ through 2027, with $13 million expected this year. Penegor said that the company is changing its organizational structure to ‘increase efficiency and simplify operations’. The company is dealing with a pizza market that has been weak for the past two years along with a fast-food environment that itself has been challenged as customers, burdened by inflation, reduce visits.”, Restaurant Business, February 26, 2026

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“KFC’s secret weapon in U.S. comeback could be its strength in global markets – The European market may especially hold clues to how the U.S. business can reassert its iconic status back home. KFC’s U.S. business closed 2025 on a high note, marking 1% same-store sales growth for the fourth quarter after enjoying 2% comps in the third quarter. The House That Colonel Sanders Built has roughly 34,000 locations worldwide that earned $36.4 billion in sales in 2025. Only 13% of its sales came from the U.S.; 27% came from China, 12% from Europe, and 11% from the rest of Asia. Latin America, which made up 8% of KFC’s sales last year, had the strongest growth with its 12% system sales increase, while Africa was the next-fastest growing market with 10% system sales growth in 2025. The U.S. was the only market with negative sales.”, NRN, February 17, 2026. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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“Dine Brands Increases Focus on Traffic, Value Amid Ongoing Consumer Caution – The company’s operational improvements across its business are boosting traffic and sales trends. ‘Guests remain highly intentional about how they spend their discretionary dollars,’ (Chief Executive John Peyton) said. ‘Value remains a critical driver in that decision-making.’ Against that backdrop, the owner of Applebee’s Neighborhood Bar + Grill and IHOP said it has doubled down on value, focusing on portion size, food quality and overall experience, in addition to price. Dine Brands has also emphasized shorter wait times and better service, manager visibility in dining rooms and improved off-premise order accuracy, alongside stepped-up marketing and new menu items. Dine Brands forecast a mid-single-digit increase in commodity costs at Applebee’s as well as a low-single-digit increase at IHOP.”, The Wall Street Journal, February 25, 2026

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And download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business, used by many companies for strategic planning, at this link:

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Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 154, Tuesday, February 17, 2026

Posted on Feb 16th, 2026 in Asia Pacific, Europe, India, Miscellaneous, Predictions and Trends, Professional Development, World Culture, World Economy | Comments Off

“It always seems impossible until it’s done.”

Welcome to the 154th Edition of the Biweekly Global Business Update – The above quotation is attributed to Nelson Mandala and sees appropriate as we plan for doing global business in 2026. As we move deeper into 2026, the signals coming from global markets are both clear and complex. In this edition we cover China, India, Japan, Taiwan, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Global power demand is accelerating alongside AI infrastructure buildout. Fertility rates continue to decline across developed economies. Trade frameworks remain fluid. The world’s largest economies are widening their scale advantage, while cost-of-living pressures persist in major urban centers.

For global business leaders, this is not a moment for reaction — it is a moment for disciplined positioning.

In this edition, we analyze the 2026 Global Cost of Living Index and what it signals for talent mobility, compensation planning, and location strategy. We review the world’s 50 largest economies by projected GDP and examine how output concentration is reshaping competitive dynamics. We explore the accelerating “Age of Electricity” and the implications of surging power demand for data centers, manufacturing siting, and national industrial policy. We assess evolving tariff structures, shifting trade alignments, and regulatory adjustments that are quietly influencing cross-border capital flows.

In the franchise sector, we review global restaurant expansion trends, cross-border brand movement, and the implications of shifting consumer spending patterns in both emerging and mature markets. As labor costs, urban density, and middle-class growth diverge by region, franchisors must align market selection, capital deployment, and local operating partnerships with greater precision than ever before.

This edition’s book review highlights: “Blue Ocean Strategy, Expanded Edition: How to Create Uncontested Market Space and Make the Competition Irrelevant” by W. Chan Kim , Renée A. Mauborgne and Renee Mauborgne. More than a decade after its original release, Blue Ocean Strategy remains one of the most influential strategy books in global business. In the Expanded Edition, W. Chan Kim and Renée Mauborgne refine and reinforce their central thesis: companies achieve breakthrough growth not by battling competitors in crowded ‘red oceans,’ but by creating uncontested market space — ‘blue oceans’ — where competition becomes irrelevant.

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To receive our biweekly newsletter by email every other Tuesday, click here https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Link to our current and past newsletters: https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“It always seems impossible until it’s done.”, often attributed to Nelson Mandela

“Happiness depends more upon the internal frame of a person’s own mind than on the externals in the world”, 1^st US President, George Washington

“The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence; it is to act with yesterday’s logic.”, Peter Drucker

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Highlights in issue #154:

The Global Cost of Living Index 2026

The World’s 50 Largest Economies by GDP in 2026

Full-service restaurants led industry’s job growth in 2025 –

For Better or Worse, Health Care Is America’s Employment Engine

Japan’s Economy Ekes Out Anemic Growth as Takaichi Eyes Spending

Franchise Global News Section: Bob Evans®, Krispy Kreme®, McDonalds®, TGI Fridays® and Wendy’s®

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“The Global Cost of Living Index 2026 – Bermuda is the most expensive place to live in the world in 2026, with prices 23.5% higher than New York City. Switzerland leads Europe, while Singapore is the most expensive in Asia. This graphic visualizes Numbeo’s Global Cost of Living Index, which measures the price of everyday expenses, including rent, relative to New York City (baseline of 100). If a country has an index score of 80, prices are 20% lower than in New York. Scores above 100 indicate higher everyday costs. While inflation has eased in many regions, the cost of living remains a major global challenge. Across 28 countries, home prices have risen more than 50% since 2020, and grocery costs have risen sharply in countries such as Mexico, Germany, and Malaysia, continuing to strain household budgets worldwide.”, Visual Capitalist & Numbeo, February 9, 2026

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“Why are fertility rates collapsing? Gender roles. A big part of female graduates’ decision to have children depends on how they expect their husbands to behave. The decline in fertility has occurred in almost every country in the world. Humanity is unprecedentedly well off and yet has far fewer children relative to its numbers than before. Quality children are expensive everywhere, but in some countries they are exorbitantly so. Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Gender norms will need to be even more equal and societal help with the costs of children even greater if there is to be much hope of raising fertility rates. But a big rise seems unlikely. A declining population looks inevitable in a huge number of rich countries, if mass immigration is ruled out.”, The Financial Times, February 10, 2026

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“The World’s 50 Largest Economies by GDP in 2026 – This infographic ranks the world’s 50 largest economies by projected nominal GDP in 2026, based on data from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (October 2025). The global economy is projected to reach $123.6 trillion in 2026. The United States remains the world’s largest economy, accounting for over $31.8 trillion in GDP. The top five economies generate more than 55% of global economic output.”, Visual Capitalist & the International Monetary Fund, January 29, 2026

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“Global AI Battle Turbocharged by 50% Power Demand Surge – Governments have only begun to grasp the major shifts in policies and politics the “age of electricity” may bring. In a Davos presentation last month, the Nvidia Corp. boss unveiled his vision of the artificial intelligence buildout in the form of a “five-layer cake.” Near the top is where economic value is created, via the models that drive AI and the applications that make it work for businesses. But the base layer – the sponge in the cake — is energy. Right now that means electricity, with power-hungry data centers springing up around the world to drive the new technology. Those centers are effectively competing with humans, who of course rely on electric power to heat and cool their homes and increasingly to get around in cars or trains. The obvious conclusion is, we’re going to need a lot more of it. That’s also the key finding of the new annual report on power production and markets by the International Energy Agency – which heralds the dawning of an “Age of Electricity.” In the coming five years, the IEA predicts global demand for power is set to grow roughly 50% faster than it did during the previous decade – and more than twice as fast as energy demand overall.”, Bloomberg, February 14, 2026

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes, Tariffs & Trade Issues

“Donald Trump plans to roll back tariffs on metal and aluminium goods – Latest softening of levies comes amid persistent voter anxiety about affordability in US. The US president hit steel and aluminium imports with tariffs of up to 50 per cent last summer, and has expanded the taxes to a range of goods made from those metals including washing machines and ovens. But his administration is now reviewing the list of products affected by the levies and plans to exempt some items, halt the expansion of the lists and instead launch more targeted national security probes into specific goods, according to three people familiar with the matter. The people said trade officials in the commerce department and US trade representative’s office believed the tariffs were hurting consumers by raising prices for goods such as pie tins and food and drink cans. Trump’s tariff blitz has pushed US duties to their highest level since before the second world war.”, The Financial Times, February 13, 2026

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“Goldman Traders Launch AI-Proof Software Basket Amid Sector Rout – Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has introduced a software pair trade basket that goes long companies whose businesses are seen as difficult for AI to displace and shorts firms whose workflows AI could automate or replicate internally. The basket includes companies such as Cloudflare Inc., CrowdStrike Holdings Inc., and Microsoft Corp. on the long side, and Monday.com Ltd., Salesforce Inc., and Duolingo Inc. on the short side. The launch comes as anxiety over AI’s disruptive potential intensifies, with software stocks trading at about 27 times earnings, down from roughly 51 times earnings a year ago, and earnings expectations remaining broadly intact.”, Bloomberg, February 13, 2026

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“Global shipping industry sticks with green investments, despite carbon price delay – Shipping accounts for nearly 3% of greenhouse gas emissions. he shipping industry’s biggest players are shrugging off Trump administration opposition to a global carbon price and are forging ahead with billions of dollars in emissions-reducing investments, according to company officials and a Reuters analysis of data. Europe, Brazil and a host of other nations are pushing the sector, which is responsible for nearly 3% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, to go green. But, in October, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, the world’s two largest oil producers, successfully spearheaded efforts to postpone by one year a decision on the International Maritime Organization’s proposal of a $380-per-metric-ton levy.”, Reuters, February 12, 2026

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Global & Regional Travel News

“3 US Carriers Included In The World’s 25 Safest Airlines For 2026 – A “recently released report on the world’s 25 safest full-service airlines for 2026 included Alaska Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and American Airlines. “Dubbed No. 1 on the list of this year’s safest full-service airlines was Etihad Airways. Notably, the latter is one of the United Arab Emirates (UAE)’s two official flag carriers. The country’s other national airline, Emirates, ranked fifth. Cathay Pacific (Hong Kong) ranked second on the list of the world’s safest airlines in 2026. It was followed by Qantas (Australia) in third and Qatar Airways (Qatar) in fourth.”, Travel Noire, February 13, 2026

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Book Review

“Blue Ocean Strategy, Expanded Edition: How to Create Uncontested Market Space and Make the Competition Irrelevant” by W. Chan Kim , Renée A. Mauborgne and Renee Mauborgne. More than a decade after its original release, Blue Ocean Strategy remains one of the most influential strategy books in global business. In the Expanded Edition, W. Chan Kim and Renée Mauborgne refine and reinforce their central thesis: companies achieve breakthrough growth not by battling competitors in crowded ‘red oceans,’ but by creating uncontested market space — ‘blue oceans’ — where competition becomes irrelevant.

The authors challenge the traditional assumption that strategy is about outperforming rivals. Instead, they argue that lasting growth comes from value innovation — simultaneously increasing buyer value while reducing costs. Through case studies ranging from Cirque du Soleil to Nintendo and emerging-market innovators, the book demonstrates how redefining industry boundaries can unlock new demand rather than fight over existing customers.

The Expanded Edition adds updated case examples and deeper guidance on execution risks, organizational alignment, and the human side of transformation — areas often overlooked in strategy discussions. Importantly, Kim and Mauborgne emphasize tools, not just theory. The Strategy Canvas and Four Actions Framework provide practical, visual methods for rethinking competitive positioning.

For global business leaders navigating saturated markets, geopolitical uncertainty, and margin pressure, Blue Ocean Strategy is not simply about innovation. It is about disciplined differentiation and strategic courage. In a world obsessed with benchmarking competitors, this book reminds leaders to step back and ask a more powerful question: What if we changed the game entirely?

Five Takeaways for Global Business Leaders

Competing harder is not the same as competing smarter. Growth often comes from redefining the market, not dominating it.
Value innovation drives durable advantage. Raise what matters to customers while eliminating or reducing what does not.
Noncustomers matter. Expanding demand beyond current buyers can unlock global growth.
Strategy must be visual and simple. Tools like the Strategy Canvas clarify trade-offs and sharpen decision-making.
Execution risk is cultural. Organizational resistance, not idea scarcity, is the biggest obstacle to blue ocean moves.

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Country & Regional Updates

China

“Gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in China 2015-2030 – As of 2024, China was among the leading countries with the largest gross domestic product worldwide, second only to the United States which had a GDP volume of almost 29.2 trillion U.S. dollars. The Chinese GDP has shown remarkable growth over the past years. Upon closer examination of the distribution of GDP across economic sectors, a gradual shift from an economy heavily based on industrial production towards an economy focused on services becomes visible, with the service industry outpacing the manufacturing sector in terms of GDP contribution. According to preliminary figures, the growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) in China amounted to 5.0 percent in 2025. For 2026, the IMF expects a GDP growth rate of around 4.2 percent.”, Published for Statista by C. Textor, Jan 19, 2026

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India

“India’s New CPI May Give Central Bank Reason to Stay on Hold – India will publish inflation figures based on a new index, which may show elevated price pressures in the economy, giving the central bank reason to keep interest rates on hold. The new consumer price index will reflect changes in spending patterns since the last overhaul, with the weighting of volatile items such as food reduced and new spending categories like rentals for rural housing and online shopping added. The changes could lift the January inflation reading and prompt the central bank to hold off on any further rate cuts, potentially pushing up bond yields further and influencing financial market participants’ expectations for interest rates.”, Bloomberg, February 11, 2026

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Japan

“Japan’s Economy Ekes Out Anemic Growth as Takaichi Eyes Spending – Japan’s economic output in the fourth quarter of 2025 was much weaker than expected, registering anemic growth after a deep contraction in the previous period, underscoring the case for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s proactive spending policies following her election triumph. Japan’s real gross domestic product grew 0.2% on an annualized basis in the three months through December, according to a Cabinet Office report Monday. That was weaker than economists’ median estimate of 1.6% growth. Consumer spending, the biggest component of GDP, grew 0.1%, showing the fragility of domestic demand as households continue to cope with inflation that hovered above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for four years through 2025.”, Bloomberg, February 15, 2026

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Singapore

“Singapore’s Car Tax Revenue Now So High It Exceeds Fiji’s GDP – “Vehicle quota premiums raisedS$8.66 billion ($6.9 billion) in the year ending March 2026, about 31% more than the government initially estimated a year ago. When combined with motor vehicle taxes, it brings the total to S$11.05 billion — an amount greater than the annual gross domestic product of Fiji. The government projects that vehicle quota premiums and motor vehicle taxes will raise a combined S$12.22 billion in the year ending March 2027. Singapore has a unique system for allowing cars to stay on the road. Every vehicle must be granted a Certificate of Entitlement as part of a bidding process, which grants permission for it to be driven for a maximum of 10 years.”, Bloomberg, February 13, 2026

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Taiwan

“U.S.-Taiwan Trade Agreement Leaves Major Questions Open – The U.S.-Taiwan Reciprocal Trade Agreement should provide welcome stability to bilateral economic ties, but differences over the trade balance, semiconductor manufacturing, and currency intervention will remain. Taiwan has become only the seventh U.S. trading partner to reach a Reciprocal Trade Agreement with the Trump administration. Under the terms of the deal, the United States will reduce the reciprocal tariff rate on Taiwanese goods to 15 percent, Taiwan will reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers, Taiwanese firms will invest at least $250 billion in the United States for semiconductor production, and Taiwan will guarantee $250 billion in credit for these companies. Taiwan also committed to increasing its purchases of American products, including $44.4 billion of liquefied natural gas and crude oil, $15.2 billion of aircraft and engines, and $25.2 billion of power-generation equipment.”, Council on Foreign Relations, February 12, 2026

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United Arab Emirates

“UAE ‘surpassing Hong Kong’, challenging Singapore for global trade crown – With non-oil trade nearly doubling, analysts say the UAE has secured a first-mover advantage that leaves regional rivals trailing behind. Driven by an aggressive post-pandemic strategy of “economic statecraft,” the nation’s non-oil trade reached $1.03 trillion in 2025, hitting its 2031 targets six years ahead of schedule. By maintaining a non-aligned stance that balances Western partnerships with a role as a hub for diverse capital flows, the UAE has attracted significant global investment and talent. Dubai-based DP World now rivals Hong Kong’s Hutchison Ports and is positioned to challenge Singapore’s PSA International for global leadership in port operations. Beyond logistics, the UAE is investing heavily in AI to secure a first-mover advantage in the next frontier of trade technology.”, South China Morning Post, February 14, 2026

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United Kingdom

“UK labour reforms to cut hiring by one in three employers, survey shows – “More than one in three UK employers plan to cut their hiring of permanent staff due to costs introduced by the government’s labour law reforms, a survey showed on Monday. The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, a professional body for the human resources sector, said overall hiring intentions remained at their lowest level on record excluding the first year of the COVID pandemic, adding to the risks that an ongoing jobs market slowdown deepens.”, Reuters, February 16, 2026

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United States

“For Better or Worse, Health Care Is America’s Employment Engine – Off The Charts: The Visual Says It All. “Manufacturing, once the largest employer in the U.S. economy, has shed jobs consistently since 2022. Health care has gained them. The two sectors have been on opposite trajectories since 2008, when health care employment first exceeded manufacturing. As of January, more than 18 million people worked in health care, compared to 12 million in manufacturing, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And those two sectors have been headed in opposite directions in recent years.”, Investopedia, February 13, 2026

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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News

“How Franchise Economics Can Fuel YUM’s Next Growth Cycle – Yum! Brands is making franchise “What Franchisors Need to Get Right Before Expanding Internationally – International expansion is a milestone. It’s proof that a franchise system has “made it” at home, and there’s enough demand for your brand to start growing beyond its borders. But, going global isn’t about planting flags on a map. It’s about discipline, clarity, and an honest understanding of what makes your concept work, and what doesn’t translate automatically across borders. Not every successful domestic franchise is suited for international expansion.”, Franchising.com, February 13, 2026. This article is by Stephen P. Smith who is the founder & CEO of Hotworx.

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“Full-service restaurants led industry’s job growth in 2025 – The segment added a net 55,000 jobs during the year, however, it remains below pre-pandemic levels…..eating and drinking establishments added a net 27,800 jobs in January on a seasonally-adjusted basis, up from 13,900 jobs in December. January marked the eighth consecutive monthly increase in restaurant employment, according to the National Restaurant Association. In the last eight months, eating and drinking places added a net 172,000 jobs, versus the overall economy, which has added just 129,000 jobs. The association notes that the industry’s recent employment trends suggest that many operators continue to prioritize boosting staffing levels, even amid a challenging business environment.”, Nation’s Restaurant News, February 11, 2026

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“Bob Evans is acquired by private-equity firm 4×4 – The 400-unit family-dining chain had been owned by Golden Gate Capital since 2017. Its new owner is planning long-term growth. 4×4 said it plans to grow the New Albany, Ohio-based chain, known for its “farm-fresh” comfort food and low prices. Bob Evans management including CEO Mickey Mills will stay in place. It also closed about 75 locations, going from 505 to 430. It generated $761.2 million in sales in 2024, or about $1.8 million per restaurant. It has largely been shrinking since 2005, when it had 590 locations and $1 billion in annual sales. Bob Evans is one of the older restaurant brands in the country, having been founded in Ohio in 1948 by its namesake. The original restaurant was supported by Evans’ sausage-making business, which would later become Bob Evans Farms.”, Restaurant Business, February 4, 2026

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“McDonald’s has a $73B impact on the U.S. economy – The fast-food giant also supports 1 million jobs, including 740,000 people who work in the chain’s restaurants, according to a study the company commissioned by Oxford Economics. One of the most visible parts of this effort involves what McDonald’s calls “the 1 in 8,” referring to the one out of eight Americans who worked in one of the chain’s restaurants at some point in their lives. The company buys $5.9 billion worth of ingredients every year, including 671 million pounds of beef, 130 million pounds of cheese, 2.8 billion pounds of potatoes and 2.1 billion eggs. McDonald’s also noted that it supports nearly $20 billion in tax revenue nationwide.”, Restaurant Business, February 3, 2026

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“Krispy Kreme to sell Japan business to Unison Capital in $65m deal – The brand currently operates 89 outlets in Japan, alongside around 300 fresh delivery points in Tokyo, Osaka and other major urban areas. The transaction, described as Krispy Kreme’s first international refranchising agreement since it set out a turnaround plan in August, is expected to complete in the first quarter of 2026. Krispy Kreme CEO Josh Charlesworth said: ‘We are pleased to announce our first international refranchising agreement since launching our turnaround plan in August, marking meaningful progress on a key pillar of the plan.’”, Verdict Food Service, December 22, 2025

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“Inside TGI Fridays’ ambitious path to 1K units by 2030 – CEO Ray Blanchette said the chain has signed 150 agreements within the past six months, and franchisees are excited to grow again. With this annual growth and the addition of alternative development channels like hotels and airports, 1,000 units by 2030 is attainable, he said. Blanchette returned as CEO of the chain in 2025, shortly after the chain emerged from bankruptcy with an eye on growth, menu innovation and franchising. He is a long-time Fridays franchisee through his company Sugarloaf Hospitality and originally served as Fridays CEO from 2018 to 2023. One of the chain’s biggest growth focuses is non-traditional space, like airports and hotels.”, Restaurant Dive, February 9, 2026

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“Restaurant Brands shares fall despite earnings beat, strong international growth – Restaurant Brands International reported quarterly earnings and revenue that topped Wall Street’s expectations. Strong international sales fueled company-wide same-store sales growth of 3.1%. Popeyes was the laggard of the portfolio, with same-store sales declining during the quarter. However, executives said that Burger King’s progress on remodeling U.S. restaurants slowed last year in response to higher costs, and the chain will no longer meet its 2028 deadline to modernize 85% of its domestic locations. Outside of the U.S. and Canada, Restaurant Brands’ same-store sales climbed 6.1%. International Burger King restaurants, which represents the bulk of the segment, saw same-store sales growth of 5.8%.”, CNBC, February 12, 2026

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“McDonald s Malaysia to launch 100 new restaurants with 254M investment – McDonald’s Malaysia plans to invest RM1 billion ($254 million) over the next five years to roll out 100 new restaurants, upgrade existing outlets and boost its digital capabilities. Managing director and local operating partner Datuk Azmir Jaafar said the planned investment underscores the company’s long-term commitment to developing a Malaysian workforce while expanding its restaurant footprint nationwide, according to state-owned news outlet Bernama. 60% of the funding will be allocated for new restaurant openings, while 20% will be for refurbishing and modernising more than 150 existing McDonald’s Malaysia restaurants, and the remaining 20% for technology and digitalization initiatives, he said.”, VN Express International, February 8, 2026. Compliments of Paul Njones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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“Wendy’s Sales Dented by Persistent U.S. Struggles – The fast-food chain said same-restaurant sales fell 10.1% in the fourth quarter from a year ago, mostly driven by a drop in domestic sales. The report comes as Wendy’s is working to close a number of U.S. restaurants in an attempt to turn around performance. The company plans to close 5% to 6% of its roughly 6,000 U.S. locations……. Sales were also dented by lower advertising funds revenue, franchise loyalty revenue and franchise fees.”, The Wall Street Journal, February 13, 2026

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Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 153, Tuesday, February 3, 2026

Posted on Feb 1st, 2026 in Asia Pacific, Europe, India, Miscellaneous, Predictions and Trends, Professional Development, World Culture, World Economy | Comments Off

“Global commerce is being reshaped by both opportunity and friction”

Welcome to the 153rd Edition of the Biweekly Global Business Update – The global business environment continues to reset—quietly in some places, forcefully in others. Economic optimism is returning in parts of Asia and emerging markets, even as uncertainty lingers across North America and Europe. Capital is shifting, currencies are moving, and long-standing trade patterns are being rewritten in real time.

In this wide ranging issue we look at: global economic optimism, the movement of top economies up and down the ranking over time, where the world’s population is today, Europe and the AI race, wind and solar pull ahead of oil and gas in the European Union, the fast rise of copper prices, US container shipment changes. energy issues in Canada and China, uneven economic growth in the European Union, Poland entering the global top 10 economies, London as the leading world startup capital outside the USA, America’s top trading partners and the decline of US consumer confidence

Global franchise leaders continue to prioritize unit-level economics, operational efficiency, and disciplined expansion as the foundation for sustainable growth. At the same time, rising debt burdens and evolving regulatory frameworks underscore the importance of capital discipline and governance as brands expand internationally.

This edition’s book review highlights: “The Science of Scaling: Grow Your Business Bigger and Faster Than You Think Possible“ by Dr. Benjamin Hardy and Blake Erickson. This book challenges one of the most common myths in business—that growth is primarily about working harder or expanding incrementally. Instead, Hardy and Erickson argue that meaningful scale comes from strategic leverage, identity shifts, and systems thinking, not effort alone. Drawing on behavioral psychology, case studies, and performance science, the book reframes scaling as a process of elimination, focus, and multiplication, rather than accumulation.

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To receive our biweekly newsletter by email every other Tuesday, click here https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Link to our current and past newsletters: https://edwardsglobal.com/geowizard/

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“Technology moves at digital speed; regulation moves at political speed. Global leaders must manage both.”, Christine Lagarde

“AI is not merely a tool for efficiency, but a transformative force reshaping workforce dynamic.”, Hussain Sajwani, UAE business leader

“Trade is changing……global commerce is being reshaped by both opportunity and friction.”, World Economic Forum trade insights from Davos 2026

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Highlights in issue #153:

How Major Economies Have Shifted Since 2000

Economic optimism returns

America’s Top Trading Partners in 2025

US Container Growth Vanishes With World Trade Flows ‘Moving On’

US Consumer Outlook at Its Darkest in 12 Years

Franchise Global News Section: Chili’s®, Fat Brands, Starbucks®, YUM Brands and Wingstop®

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Please join me and 200+ other Southern California senior executives at the February 12th ReINVENT SUMMIT at the University of California, Irvine to learn the latest business trends across many diverse business sectors that can help you be more successful in 2026.

I will be interviewing Dr. Noel Hacegaba, CEO of the Port Of Long Beach, on his view of global trade going forward. Register to attend the afternoon of Thursday, February 12th at the Beall Center for Innovation at UCI at this link:

https://enpinstitute.com/event/emerge-26/

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“Economic optimism returns – Executives around the globe have shown increased optimism about their domestic economies compared with just a few months earlier, according to a December 2025 McKinsey survey. Senior Partner Sven Smit and coauthors note that survey respondents in Greater China and India remain the most optimistic, with more than two-thirds in each region expecting economic conditions to improve in the next six months. Although sentiment has also brightened in North America and Europe, a significant share of executives in those regions still anticipate that conditions may worsen.”, McKinsey & Co., January 29, 2026

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“How Major Economies Have Shifted Since 2000 – This graphic shows the top economies by GDP over the past quarter century, based on data from the International Monetary Fund. America has long held the title as the world’s largest economy, rising from a GDP of $10.3 trillion in 2000 to $30.6 trillion in 2025. China emerged as the second-biggest economy in 2010, with its economy growing by a factor of nearly 17 since 2000. The global balance of power looks very different than it did 25 years ago. In 2000, Japan was the world’s second-largest economy and China was only in sixth place. Since then, the global hierarchy has shifted dramatically, driven by the rapid rise of China and India.”, Visual Capitalist and the IMF, January 19, 2026

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“Emerging markets make roaring start to 2026 as dollar slides – Stocks, bonds and currencies have all soared as dollar weakness puts focus on fundamentals. ‘Fundamentals in emerging markets have been improving for a while but it took the weak dollar for global investors to pay attention,’ said David Hauner, head of global emerging markets fixed-income strategy at Bank of America. Many emerging-market central banks have boosted interest rates well above inflation in recent years in an attempt to retain capital that was being enticed away by the rise in US interest rates since 2022, which helped drive a decade-long strengthening in the dollar. In comparison, the MSCI World index of advanced economy stocks is up 2.8 per cent this year, while the S&P 500 index of US blue-chip stocks is up 1.6 per cent.”, The Financial Times, January 29, 2026

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“The Entirety of the World’s 8.2 Billion Population in One Chart – The global population surpassed 8.2 billion in 2025, up from 8.0 billion in 2022. India drove nearly a quarter of global population growth over the period, with its population now close to 1.5 billion. After reaching 1 billion people in 1804, the world’s population has expanded eightfold over roughly 200 years. Since 2022, the global population has increased by more than 200 million despite widespread declines in birth rates. While the populations of China and Brazil have shrunk, India and Nigeria have been significant drivers of overall population growth.”, Visual Capitalist and the UN Statistics Division, January 25, 2026

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“Europe can still win the other AI race – Use of the technology is picking up pace. From cloud-computing to 5g, European companies have tended to be slow in adopting new technologies. Many feared that the same would happen with the most recent wave of so-called generative ai. The opportunity is big. Europe has a large industrial base and it is hunting for ways to boost economic growth. Already Europeans as individuals are among the most enthusiastic adopters of generative ai. According to research from Microsoft, a software giant, 32% of them use the technology, based on a population-weighted average of European countries, compared with 28% of Americans and 16% of Chinese.”, Economist, January 22, 2206

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes, Tariffs & Trade Issues

“Dollar sinks to 4-month low and gold soars past $5,000 as yen leaps – Japanese currency climbs sharply on speculation of joint US-Japan market intervention, adding to pressure on greenback. The dollar, which analysts said was also suffering from concerns over a potential US government shutdown, fell 0.6 per cent on Monday against a broader group of major currencies, extending the losses sparked by last week’s Greenland crisis. As US risks pushed investors out of the dollar, they sought safety in precious metals, sending gold to an all-time high and silver to its highest level since 2008.”, The Financial Times, January 25, 2026

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“In the EU, wind and solar surpass fossil fuels for first time – The watershed moment comes as the region looks to prioritize clean, domestic energy sources over dirty coal or imported natural gas. In 2025, wind and solar produced more electrons for the EU than fossil fuels did, per a new Ember report — the first time that’s ever happened over the course of an entire year. Though wind still produces more power for the EU than solar does, it was the blistering growth of the latter that drove last year’s achievement. Last year, coal accounted for just 9.2% of the region’s electricity, and several EU nations have already phased it out entirely or committed to doing so before 2030.”, Canary Media, January 30, 2026

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“Copper Billionaires’ Fortunes Double as Metal Prices Soar – The wealth of Latin America’s two richest copper billionaires has doubled over the past year, fueled by record-setting prices for copper. German Larrea and Iris Fontbona have generated $64 billion in new wealth in the past year, with Larrea’s fortune jumping to $71.6 billion and Fontbona’s net worth increasing 91% to $55.6 billion. Copper prices have soared due to shipments flowing into US warehouses, disruptions to copper supplies, and favorable longer-term factors, including the need for more cables for data centers, electric vehicles, and electronics. Copper supplies have been further disrupted by a string of incidents at major mines around the world, while a weakening dollar and lower interest rates create additional support for commodities. A normalization of supply disruptions could see prices retreat, but underpinning the market are favorable longer-term factors.”, Bloomberg, January 29, 2026

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“US Container Growth Vanishes With World Trade Flows ‘Moving On’ – US container imports ended 2025 in a four-month skid that’s likely to lengthen this year as trade shifts to other economies to avoid President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Inbound volumes in December dropped 6.4% from a year earlier to 1.9 million 20-foot container units, after a 5.7% slide the previous month. The result is an upheaval in international commerce that ING Groep NV economists called “a global recalibration and the start of a new era” with the US lagging much of the world in growth rates for container shipping. Trump has used import taxes — actual or threatened — as leverage against trading partners, hoping to reduce the US trade deficit and increase domestic production. In response, major economies such as China and the European Union are seeking ways to reduce their reliance on the American market, and signing trade deals with other countries or blocs.”, Bloomberg, January 31, 2026

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Book Review

“The Science of Scaling: Grow Your Business Bigger and Faster Than You Think Possible” by Dr. Benjamin Hardy and Blake Erickson challenges one of the most common myths in business: that growth is primarily about working harder or expanding incrementally. Instead, the authors argue that meaningful scale comes from strategic leverage, identity shifts, and systems thinking, not effort alone. Drawing on behavioral psychology, case studies, and performance science, the book reframes scaling as a process of elimination, focus, and multiplication, rather than accumulation.

For leaders operating across borders, the message is particularly relevant. Global growth amplifies complexity, and the authors are clear: without clarity of vision, disciplined priorities, and the right partnerships, scale actually destroys value. The book’s strength lies in its insistence that leaders must first scale themselves—their decision-making, time allocation, and tolerance for change—before attempting to scale organizations.

The Science of Scaling offers a mindset and framework that translates well to franchising, licensing, and cross-border expansion.

5 Takeaways for Global Business Leaders

Scale follows focus, not geography
Eliminate before you expand
Leverage partnerships, not just capital
Systems beat heroics at scale
Leadership identity must evolve before the business can

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Country & Regional Updates

Canada

“Canada shipped a record share of oil to non-U.S. countries in November – The share of Canada’s crude petroleum flowing to countries other than the United States hit an all-time high in November, topping the previous month’s record, as the Trans Mountain pipeline boosted Canada’s trade diversification efforts. But while the latest trade numbers from Statistics Canada show the pivot away from the U.S. is working, the gains elsewhere have not been enough to make up for slumping demand from south of the border. Canada shipped 14.1 per cent of its crude to the rest of the world in November, with China alone accounting for 10 per cent of Canada’s total oil exports that month.”, The Globe and Mail, January 30, 2026

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China

“China Takes on Green Energy Gridlock With Direct Connections – Unlike most wind farms across China, the 500-megawatt facility run by Swan Electric Power in Sanmenxia in the central province of Henan does not feed electricity into the national grid. Rather, it delivers power through a dedicated transmission line into a self-operated distribution network, bypassing the state-run utility system to directly supply end users. This setup — known as a “green power direct connection” — is emerging as one of Beijing’s most closely watched experiments in fixing a growing imbalance that has emerged from China’s energy transition. The country has built renewable capacity faster than its grid can handle it, leading to widespread waste. The policy-backed direct connection model is expected to ease pressure on the grid, lower energy costs for factories, and create an outlet for projects that might otherwise sit idle.”, Caixin Global, January 23, 2026

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European Union

“Uneven Growth Continues to Plague Europe – Germany and France are lagging behind. Gross domestic product in the European Union grew 0.4 percent in the third quarter of 2025 relative to the previous quarter, demonstrating resilience in the face of immense challenges, including trade disputes with the U.S. and fierce competition from China. Denmark saw the highest rate of growth, driven by its pharmaceutical industry. However, growth across the Continent was again highly uneven. While less economically developed countries surged ahead (in Poland, for example, household consumption and rising consumer sentiment fueled increases in GDP and employment), key European heavyweights remain in limbo. In Germany, the EU’s traditional economic engine, unemployment reached a 12-year high, and political instability in France is also leaving its mark on growth. Additionally, Europe’s shift away from cheaper Russian energy has left it dependent on a limited number of costlier alternatives.”, Geopolitical Futures, January 30, 2026

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“What a Break With Europe Means for the American Economy – Europe is the U.S.’s biggest trading partner, largest investor and closest financial ally. The economies of the U.S. and Europe are intertwined. The European Union is the U.S.’s biggest trading partner—and Europe is the largest source of foreign direct investment in the U.S., with $3.6 trillion invested into the U.S. as of 2024. It goes the other way, too: U.S. companies make a fortune selling software, financial products and oil across the Atlantic. While the trans-Atlantic goods trade has grown more slowly since the 2007-09 recession, U.S. services exports have continued to expand rapidly. That includes financial, legal and insurance services, but increasingly centers on digital services and cloud computing provided by leading American tech companies such as Microsoft, Amazon.com, Google and International Business Machines. The European Union is the largest destination for U.S. services exports, which for the bloc totaled $294.7 billion in 2024.”, Wall Street Journal, January 19, 2026.

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Poland

“Poland’s Economy Set to Enter Global Top 20 Following Another Strong Year – Strong private consumption and sustained public investment helped the economy hit $1 trillion in 2025. The milestone, confirmed by data released Friday by the country’s statistics agency, likely lifted Poland into the world’s top 20 economies for 2025. It is expected to supplant Switzerland, which hasn’t yet released its end-of-year tally. Poland now sits right behind No. 19 Saudi Arabia’s $1.3 trillion economy. Three-and-a-half decades ago, under an isolated communist regime, the purchasing power of an average Pole—adjusted for local prices—was on par with Jamaica. Now, it’s higher than Japan. The European Commission expects Poland’s budget deficit to narrow to 6.3% of GDP in 2026.”, The Wall Street Journal, January 30, 2026

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United Kingdom

“How London became the rest of the world’s startup capital – Outside America, no other city comes close. London is one of the best places in the world to start a company. It has produced more unicorns ($1bn-plus startups) than Berlin, Paris and Tokyo combined. Their alumni are now spawning a second generation of firms. It is the world’s fourth-largest venture hub, according to Dealroom, a data provider. In 2025 its startups raised $17.7bn, behind only the Bay Area, New York and Los Angeles. Three main ingredients explain the city’s enduring success. The most important is talent. London is one of the world’s most diverse startup hubs. More than half of Britain’s fastest-growing startups were founded by immigrants. Capital is the third ingredient. London struggles to fund companies at later stages (hence the flight problems). But it excels at nourishing them early on and is beginning to attract more specialist investors for that crucial early stage.”, The Economist, January 26, 2026

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United States

“America’s Top Trading Partners in 2025 – This graphic shows America’s biggest trading partners in 2025 through October, based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau. U.S. bilateral trade reached $4.7 trillion between January and October 2025, in a volatile year for trade policy. The European Union accounted for 18.8% of all U.S. trade in the first 10 months of 2025, valued at $883.3 billion. China ranks as America’s fourth-largest trading partner, with U.S. imports declining 26.7%, given rising tensions. In August 2025, the U.S. and EU agreed to a framework that set a 15% tariff ceiling on most goods, while existing 50% U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum were left in place for all global trading partners. Mexico follows, with $731.2 billion in cross-border trade in 2025. After the U.S. announced tariffs on Mexican imports in February 2025, subsequent negotiations led to delays and partial exemptions. Ranking in third is Canada, with $606.7 billion in trade value.”, U.S. Census Bureau and Visual Capitalist, January 25, 2026

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“US Consumer Outlook at Its Darkest in 12 Years – US consumer confidence plummeted in January to the lowest level in 12 years on more pessimistic views from Americans worried about the nation’s economy, inflation and a weakening labor market. The gauge by the Conference Board decreased to 84.5, from an upwardly revised 94.2 last month, data out Tuesday showed. The figure was the lowest since May 2014 and fell short of all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. In write-in responses to the survey, consumers often mentioned prices of oil, gas and groceries, said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. Mentions of politics, the labor market and health insurance also rose.”, Bloomberg,

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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification

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Global Brand & Franchise Sector News

“How Franchise Economics Can Fuel YUM’s Next Growth Cycle – Yum! Brands is making franchise economics the core driver of unit growth and long-term value creation. KFC and Taco Bell grew system sales and restaurant margins despite inflation in labor and commodities. YUM is using scale, supply-chain leverage and the Byte platform to boost franchise productivity. Yum! Brands, Inc.’s next growth phase appears increasingly tied to a single, deliberate priority: improving franchise-level economics. Management has made it clear that unit expansion, margin durability and long-term value creation all hinge on how attractive the four-wall economics look for franchise partners. The strategy is already showing traction. Yum! Brands delivered solid system sales growth alongside expanding restaurant-level margins at both KFC and Taco Bell, despite inflationary headwinds in commodities and labor.”, Zacks, January 25, 2026

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“More of the same’ for Chili’s as sales soar again – The chain seems to have perfected a formula for growth in casual dining and shows no signs of letting up. Next up is a new chicken sandwich and remodeled restaurants. Same-store sales jumped 8.6% year over year for the three months ending Dec. 24, continuing a spectacular run since CEO Kevin Hochman arrived in 2022 with a plan to revive the Dallas-based casual-dining chain. The sales growth included a 4.4% price increase, 2.7% traffic growth and a 1.5% mix improvement. In an earnings call Wednesday, the company chalked up its ongoing momentum to the playbook Hochman put in place nearly four years ago: Improved food and operations backed by widespread, value-based marketing.”, Restaurant Business, January 28, 2026

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““Wingstop’s COO Revival: Raj Kapoor’s Rise Amid Expansion Push” – Wingstop reinstates COO role with Rajneesh Kapoor’s promotion, targeting ops amid 2025 sales dips and 475+ new units. Tech like Smart Kitchen drives efficiency as chain eyes 10,000 stores globally. Wingstop’s franchise-heavy model—98% franchised—relies on such efficiencies. Domestic average unit volumes hit $2.1 million in 2024, with pilots showing Smart Kitchen slashing ticket times nearly in half via AI-driven demand forecasting using over 300 variables like weather and sports schedules, as detailed by Restaurant Business Online.”, Web Pro News, January 25, 2026

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“Starbucks China Revenue Jumps Amid Restructuring Push – Starbucks China s revenue is projected to grow by 11 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025. The company’s China business saw comparable store sales grow 7% during the period after years of stagnation, driven by a 5% rise in comparable transactions and a 2% jump in average ticket, the report said. In November, Starbucks announced a deal to form a joint venture (JV) with private equity firm Boyu Capital to operate its retail business in China, with the transaction expected to close in the spring, subject to regulatory approvals. Overall, Starbucks posted total revenue of $9.9 billion for the quarter, a 5.5% increase, while net income dropped 62.4% to $293 million. However, the international segment saw a 19% rise in operating income, helped by cost reductions after the company classified its China retail assets as held-for-sale and ceased related depreciation and amortization.”, Caixing Global, January 29, 2026. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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“Is UK franchising law about to change? Key takeaways for businesses. The UK government may soon take a closer look at the legislative framework governing franchising relationships, an area that, unlike many other jurisdictions, currently operates without a dedicated statutory framework, relying instead on contract law principles and voluntary codes. The result is a pronounced power imbalance between franchisors and individual operators. For now, franchising in the UK continues to rely on contract law and voluntary industry codes. However, if the government proceeds with reforms, we could see new requirements emerge around disclosure, fair‑dealing standards and more accessible arbitration routes.”, Lexology, January 26, 2026

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“Fat Brands, burdened with heavy debt, declares bankruptcy – The owner of Fazoli’s, Round Table Pizza and several other brands is seeking Chapter 11 debt protection. The company owes $1.45 billion in securitized debt, most of which is through a series of whole business securitizations (WBS) taken out in 2020 and 2021 to fund several acquisitions. Yet those securitizations left the company without enough funds to cover its costs, effectively ‘starving the business,’ according to a court filing this week. Fat Brands started out as Fatburger, owned by Wiederhorn, until 2017 when the company acquired Ponderosa and Bonanza and went public that year through a so-called mini-IPO. It mostly acquired small brands at super-low prices until 2020, when it started using a series of securitization financings to acquire some $900 million worth of restaurant chains. It acquired Johnny Rockets and Round Table Pizza owner Global Franchise Group, along with Fazoli’s and Twin Peaks, and later Nestle Toll House Café and Smokey Bones. Fat Brands’ various restaurant chains have 2,200 locations and 7,500 locations.”, Restaurant Business, January 27, 2026

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To receive our biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

www.edwardsglobal.com

And download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business, used by many companies for strategic planning, at this link:

Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking

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