Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 118, Tuesday, October 1, 2024

How Hello Kitty Took Over The World – 50 Years Ago!

Commentary about the 118^th Issue: China releases a ‘shock and awe’ economic package. Chick-fil-a® reenters the United Kingdom and Slim Chickens® enters Germany. The world’s superpower(s)? Inflation continues to fall in European countries. The immense energy needs to train a new AI bot. Wisdom from Abraham Lincoln, Jeff Bezos and Vidal Sassion (really!). Nearshoring in Central Europe. G7 government debt projections.

An amazing chart showing the progression of corruption in Mexican companies and institutions is in this edition. In 2022, China’s population shrank for the first time since 1961. How Hello Kitty Took Over the World 50 years ago! And…..women are beginning to leave men behind.

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Editor’s Note: You will see small ads in each edition for carefully vetted companies that serve international businesses. These small, focused, vetted ads are in place of charging subscriptions to our readers. Please click on the ads or use the QR code to see what each of our carefully chosen advertisers can do to make doing global business easier.

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Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with any questions, comments and we welcome contributions.

Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com

https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/

+1 949 375 1896

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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.  Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.  

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“Whatever you are, be a good one.”, Abraham Lincoln

“If you can’t feed a team with two pizzas, it’s too large.”, Jeff Bezos

“The only place where success comes before work is in the dictionary.”, Vidal Sassoon

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Highlights in issue #118:

• World’s Biggest Superpowers in 2024

• Government Debt Projections for G7 Countries (2024-2029F)

• Inflation Threatens 87% of (U.S.) Franchisees

• (U.S.) Consumer Confidence Drops in August

• Generative AI in Practice

• Brand Global News Section: Chick-fil-a®, Hello Kitty® and Slim Chickens®

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B2B Payments Platform For Global Businesses

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“The end of Moore’s law will not slow the pace of change – Semiconductors are likely to continue their transformational role.  In the past 50 years, processors have come to operate tens of thousands of times faster and store a million times more data in the same area. The cost of a transistor has also fallen by a factor of a billion, making technology a global deflationary force. They are also ubiquitous: semiconductors are now the third-most traded commodity in the world by value, after oil and cars. A single Blackwell chip, Nvidia’s latest, runs five times faster than its predecessor, but uses 70% more power in the process. Data centres lash hundreds or thousands of these power-hungry chips together to run large artificial-intelligence (ai) models. By some estimates, Openai, maker of Chatgpt, guzzled more than 50 gigawatt-hours of electricity to train its latest model (see chart). The International Energy Agency calculates that in 2022 data centres consumed 460 terawatt-hours, or almost 2% of global electricity demand. The agency expects this figure to double by 2026.”, The Economist, September 16, 2024

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“World’s Biggest Superpowers in 2024 – The global economic order is stitched together by trade and economic collaboration, but these show signs of fraying. With nationalism on the rise and cross-border trade flows stagnating, economies are growing more protectionist. At the same time, demographic shifts are driving economic growth and productivity in India and Asia, which could shift the global power balance. This graphic ranks world superpowers in 2024, based on analysis from Ray Dalio’s Great Powers Index 2024. (This chart shows) the total strength of world superpowers, based on a wide range of metrics including economic output, military strength, and trade. Additionally, we show per capita strength, indicating a country’s efficiency relative to its population. Visual Capitalist & Ray Dalio, September 24, 2024

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“We spent nearly a year building a generative AI tool. These are the 5 (hard) lessons we learned. McKinsey built an AI tool called Lilli to bring sources and capabilities into one platform to improve workflows. Say hello to “Lilli,” the gen AI tool launched in August 2023. Named after Lillian Dombrowski, the first professional woman hired by McKinsey in 1945, our goal was to aggregate McKinsey’s 40-plus sources and capabilities into a single platform. This would allow teams around the world to readily access McKinsey’s knowledge, generate insights, and thus help clients.  Technological change is inherently difficult. For any organization, incorporating gen AI will probably feature such difficulties. That said, it is possible to benefit from experience. Looking back on our 11-month effort, here are five principles we learned—sometimes the hard way.”, Fast Company, June 11, 2024

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“Young women are starting to leave men behind – Men’s education deficit is increasingly becoming an employment, earnings and outcomes gap, with significant repercussions. Across the developed world, girls and young women have been pulling ahead of boys and young men in education for several decades, with much larger proportions going on to attend university than their male counterparts. Much less appreciated than the widening tertiary education gap is the fact that in several rich countries young women are now more likely to be in work than young men.”, The Financial Times, September 19, 2024

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Simple, secure currency transfers

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues

“Government Debt Projections for G7 Countries (2024-2029F) – This graphic uses data from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) April 2024 edition of the World Economic Outlook to show how the U.S. stacks up against its G7 counterparts in terms of projected gross debt as a percentage of GDP in 2024, and how debt is forecasted to change by 2029. Gross debt is the total value of all of a country’s liabilities at a given point in time. Net debt is gross debt less a country’s financial assets, including cash reserves or investments. The debt figures in this infographic are of government debt, and don’t include public sector debt from provincial or state-level debt. While this reduction in rates will help reduce debt-servicing costs, the U.S. is still projected to see the biggest increase in its gross debt of all G7 nations over the next five years.” Visual Capitalist & IMF, September 25, 2024

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“The hard stuff: Navigating the physical realities of the energy transition – The energy transition is in its early stages, with about 10 percent of required deployment of low-emissions technologies by 2050 achieved in most areas. What challenges lie ahead? About half of energy-related CO₂ emissions reduction depends on addressing the most demanding physical challenges. For all its advantages, today’s system also has critical flaws. About two-thirds of energy is currently wasted. And the system generates more than 85 percent of global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂).”, McKinsey, August 14, 2024

Editor’s Note: This article by McKinsey is very dense but very detailed about the challenges faced by many industries and countries to make the transition to renewable energy worldwide.

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“Sustainable fuel flies higher – Global projections for sustainable aviation fuel capacity in 2030 have increased significantly since 2022. According to partner Axel Esqué and coauthors, the projected 2030 volume has doubled, from seven million metric tons in 2022 to 14 million metric tons this year. Although the 2030 projection is now higher, the amount of fuel expected to be available in the near future has decreased since last year’s projection.”, McKinsey, September 26, 2024

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Global & Regional Travel

“Everything you need to know about EES, the new EU visa scheme – With the new Entry/Exit System (EES) launching in November, following by the long-delayed visa waiver next year, we take a look at what it means for travellers.  It will mean anyone travelling to and from most European countries without an EU passport will need to have their biometrics — fingerprints and photograph — captured and then checked on every visit. There are fears of queues in terminals and at ports as the rules come into force. It will add two to three minutes of processing time per passenger, up from about 45 seconds at present. The scheme will be adopted by 29 countries, including all EU members bar Cyprus and Ireland. It will also be in force in Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. People with passports issued by any of these countries — including Cyprus and Ireland — will be exempt.”, National Geographic Traveler, September 20, 2024

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Book Review

Marr doesn’t shy away from discussing the risks of generative AI, such as job displacement, biased outputs, and the potential for misuse. He emphasizes the need for responsible AI implementation, making this book not just a technical guide but also a thoughtful exploration of the societal impact of AI.

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Keith Gerson and Bill Edwards Join Forces To Offer Trusted Suppliers To The Franchise Community

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Country & Regional Updates

Central & Eastern Europe (CEE)

“Near-shoring is turning eastern Europe into the new China – With firms moving production closer to market, CEE is the place to be. cee countries are benefiting from firms shifting production closer to the European market (near-shoring) or to places considered politically reliable (friend-shoring), as well as old-fashioned offshoring for lower costs. There are three reasons to expect more investment into the region. The first is the global transition to climate neutrality. The second reason is Chinese overcapacity. Finally, tension between America and China, with Europe in between, can disrupt supply chains. This is why firms have started to bring production closer to markets (near-shoring).”, The Economist, September 19, 2024

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China

“China’s Shock-and-Awe Package Misses Key Element: Fiscal Policy – It probably says more about China’s lack of policy stimulus to date that the package of monetary measures announced Tuesday amounted to the strongest set of steps seen in years. The production “speaks to the urgency felt in Beijing to head off deflationary risks and get growth on track for the 5% target” for 2024, Chang Shu and Eric Zhu of Bloomberg Economics wrote. The team’s SHOK model indicates a boost of as much as about 1% of GDP over the coming year. But at the end of the day it’s a “growth boost,” not an “economy fix,” Shu and Zhu wrote.”, Bloomberg, September 25, 2024

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“China’s  Silver Economy  Is Thriving as Birthrate Plunges – The shrinking population poses threats to growth but has opened opportunities for businesses that serve seniors. Schools for children have been turned into education centers offering activities for seniors like singing, dancing and art classes. China’s aging society is expected to deplete the vigor and vitality of the world’s second-largest economy in the coming decades. But the adverse effects of demographic change are already apparent for Chinese businesses that cater to children. Dairy companies that produced formula for China’s infants are now developing powdered milks for seniors. Proprietors of preschools and kindergartens are closing those facilities to start senior care centers. A technology firm that made devices for parents to track their young children is now designing products allowing grown children to keep tabs on their aging mothers and fathers.

In 2022, China’s population shrank for the first time since 1961. Deaths outnumbered births again last year, and the number of 60-year-olds topped 290 million, or one in every five Chinese people.”, The New York Times, September 20, 2024. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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Europe & European Union Countries

“ECB Rate-Cut Bets Jump as France, Spain Inflation Sinks Below 2% – Prices rose 1.5% in France in September, 1.7% in Spain. Markets now see 80% chance of rates being lowered in October. Inflation in France and Spain plunged below 2% — fueling predictions by investors and economists that the European Central Bank will speed up the pace of interest-rate cuts.”, Bloomberg, September 26, 2024

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“No End in Sight for Europe’s Sluggish Economy – The European Union’s economic growth rate slowed in the second quarter, though the bloc’s gross domestic product was 0.2 percent higher compared with the previous three-month period. The EU’s largest economies showed very modest growth, with Germany, traditionally the region’s economic driver, even posting negative figures. This confirms a stable trend of slower economic growth amid ongoing domestic and foreign policy challenges. The war in Ukraine has become a money pit for all sides, while the loss of Russia as a supplier of cheap energy and a buyer of European goods continues to drag on the EU economy. 

Other factors, including a stronger emphasis on fiscal discipline, further hinder Europe’s economic acceleration, especially compared with the U.S., where GDP grew by 0.7 percent on a quarterly basis over the same period. Although the European Central Bank has started to lower interest rates as inflation cools, a sudden turnaround in growth is unlikely.”, Geopolitical Futures, September 27, 2024

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Germany

“German inflation drops below 2% for first time since early 2021 – Softer price pressure and weak economic activity increase chances of ECB rate cut in October. Inflation in Germany is now at its lowest level since February 2021, when it stood at 1.6 per cent. It had surged to 11.6 per cent by October 2023, driven by higher energy prices, pent-up demand after the Covid-19 pandemic and shortages in the wake of global supply chain disruptions.”, The Financial Times, September 30, 2024

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Indonesia

“Indonesia formally requests to join Trans-Pacific trade pact – Indonesia has formally requested to join the Trans-Pacific trade pact to widen its export markets, its chief economic minister said on Wednesday, according to a report by state news agency Antara. Jakarta announced its intention to join the free trade agreement that already groups 12 countries in May, hoping to attract investment by widening export market access. CPTPP members are Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United Kingdom and Vietnam.”, Reuters, September 25, 2024

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Japan

“How Hello Kitty Took Over the World – Investors in Sanrio have made 10 times their money as the iconic Japanese brand expands digitally. Hello Kitty is celebrating her 50th birthday this year. Sanrio the Japanese company behind the iconic character, has much to cheer about too. Sanrio’s share price is at a record high after surging 10-fold from its trough in 2020. The company is delivering record profits with strong revenue growth. Operating profit last quarter rose 80% from a year earlier……Sanrio’s business outside of Japan is booming, particularly in China and the U.S. Its profit contribution from abroad, including royalties payment from overseas subsidiaries to the parent company, nearly doubled year on year in the June quarter. Sanrio struck a deal with China’s e-commerce giant Alibabain 2022 to license its characters in the country. But the U.S. is among its fastest-growing markets: Sales in the Americas grew 141% year on year last quarter. The younger generation is increasingly familiar with Sanrio’s characters given the company’s strong presence on social media.”, The Wall Street Journal, September 25, 2024

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Mexico

“Mexico’s Audacious Judicial Overhaul – Just weeks away from leaving office, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador ushered legacy-defining judicial reforms through Congress, sparking concern among opponents and international businesses. Mexican governments have restructured the court system several times over the past 30 years, but institutional weaknesses have persisted. Whether the latest reforms will do what they’re intended to do remains an open question, but the deep-rooted problems that undermine public confidence in the courts are likely to endure. The implications for the economy could be severe. Critics worry that the new judiciary, reflecting the politics of Morena, could favor protectionist policies and adopt a more nationalistic regulatory approach. The reforms pave the way for changes to regulatory bodies overseeing economic competition, telecommunications, and oil and gas, potentially undermining Mexico’s commitments under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. Other opponents say the reforms could undermine labor, environmental and trade standards required by the agreement or jeopardize dispute resolution procedures involving judges.”, Geopolitical Futures, September 24, 2024

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United States

“(U.S.) Consumer Confidence Drops in August – The August Consumer Confidence Score was 55.9 (-0.5 vs. July), which is an average of how consumers feel about the job market, their household finances, and their spending comfort levels. The August Financial Outlook Score was 50.8 (+0.1), indicating that consumers feel neutral about their household finances. Thinking about one year from now, 25% think their finances will be better than they are now, 51% think they’ll be the same, and 24% think they’ll be worse.”, Franchising.com, September 23, 2024

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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades

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Brand & Franchising News

“Chick-fil-A shares ‘first phase’ of U.K. expansion plans – The chain’s initial entry in the market includes restaurants in Belfast, Leeds, Liverpool, and London. That stage is expected to take two years, while the company plans to invest over $100 million to expand there within the next 10 years. In addition to the U.K., the company is eyeing ambitious international growth in stores across Europe and Asia supported by a $1 billion investment. Plans currently call for five international markets by 2030, with the U.K. housing the first permanent store outside of North America.”, Nation’s Restaurant News, September 26, 2024

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“Inflation Threatens 87% of (U.S.) Franchisees — Here Are the Ways They’re Fighting Back From soaring labor costs to escalating supply prices, franchise owners are facing significant economic challenges, mostly due to inflation. Industries such as food and personal services, where profit margins are already slim, are feeling the inflationary squeeze more acutely. Franchisees across the country are feeling the squeeze of rising costs, with 87% reporting that inflation is impacting their bottom line, according to the 2024 IFA Annual Franchisee Survey. From soaring labor costs to escalating supply prices, franchise owners face significant economic issues.”, Entrepreneur, September 23, 2024

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“Slim Chickens Opens First Location in Germany – Slim Chickens announced today its first restaurant in Berlin, Germany.  The brand has opened locations across the United States, Turkey, and the United Kingdom.”, Franchising.com, September 10, 2024

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“2024 Top Global Franchises Ranking – Click here to see the list of this year’s top 200 global – not U.S. – franchise brands across 12 different business sectors. From small to very large and from food to senior care, these franchise brands are making history across the globe.

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To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries.   We do not get involved in or report on politics!

William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global.  With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other.  He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.

To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here –  https://insider.edwardsglobal.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896

www.edwardsglobal.com

Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 117, Tuesday, September, 2024

Commentary about the 117^th Issue: In some countries people spend more per year on their pets than their kids! Amazon calls almost everyone back to work in offices. Four companies spent US$52.9 billion last quarter alone on property and equipment. Take a look at which countries have minable reserves of the chemicals needed for the switch to renewable energy. 

The business book to read now is How the World Ran Out of Everything: Inside the Global Supply Chain” by Peter S. Goodman. The use of coal for energy continues to rise, just ask China. The top 14 largest countries in the Americas by population size have all seen nearly 40% population growth between 1990–2023. US consumer sentiment is rising. And countries are moving up and down in the latest GlobalVue™ country ranking as places to do business.Editor’s Note: You will see small ads in each edition for carefully vetted companies that serve international businesses. Please click on the ads or use the QR code to see what each of our carefully chosen advertisers can do to make doing global business easier.

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Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with any questions, comments and we welcome contributions.

Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com

https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/

+1 949 375 1896

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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.  Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.  

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“Earth is the cradle of humanity, but one cannot live in a cradle forever.”, Konstantin Tsiolkovsky

“We’d never have got a chance to go outside and look at the earth if it hadn’t been for space exploration and NASA.”, James Lovelock 

“The best and most beautiful things in the world cannot be seen or even touched – they must be felt with the heart.”, Helen Keller

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Highlights in issue #117:

• The Latest GlobalVue™ Ranking as Places to do Business

• The Future Of European Competitiveness

• Which countries have the critical minerals needed for the energy transition?

• People are splurging like never before on their pets

• Amazon CEO Vows Leaner Teams Amid Bloat, Ends Work From Home

• US Consumer Sentiment Rises as Inflation Expectations Retreat

• Brand Global News Section: Dominos®, Franchise Update Media, International Franchise Association and Toridoll®

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B2B Payments Platform For Global Businesses

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

GlobalVue™ – The latest quarterly 40 country ranking as places to do business chart can be downloaded on readable format at: https://edwardsglobal.com/globalvue/.  The ranking of countries in red have change substantially since May.

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“Amazon CEO Vows Leaner Teams Amid Bloat, Ends Work From Home – Company is targeting bureaucracy after ballooning in size Jassy acknowledges RTO policy will require ‘adjustments’. The shakeup, announced in a memo to employees on Monday, echoed what some company veterans have been whispering for years: It’s become harder to get things done at Amazon. Stories of endless deliberation, unnecessary meetings and layers of approval have become commonplace at a company that fashions itself as a collection of teams charged with operating like startups., Bloomberg, September 16, 2024

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“Emerging Technologies – From the wheel to the internal combustion engine, new technologies have, for better or worse, fundamentally transformed our society. The emerging technologies listed have the potential to do the same. How and when they change the world, however, will depend on the geopolitical competition around their development and execution. Artificial intelligence breakthroughs like deep learning, generative AI and foundation models enable scientists to achieve previously unthinkable discoveries and accelerate scientific progress. Access to massive datasets, particularly via AI, will almost certainly expedite research, discovery and innovation. The biggest players here are the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, India and China.”, Geopolitical Futures, September 13, 2024

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“People are splurging like never before on their pets – Would you buy your furry companion a cologne? There is little, it seems, that people won’t do for their pets. Americans spent $186bn on them last year, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, covering everything from food and vet visits to toys and grooming. That is more than they spent on childcare. Spending on pets rocketed through the covid-19 pandemic, as lonely people adopted animals then splurged on them. Between 2019 and 2023 pet spending grew by a compound annual rate of 11%, in nominal terms, compared with 6% for consumer spending overall and 5% for pet spending over the preceding decade. Plenty more growth is yet to come.”, The Economist, September 12, 2024

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Emergent Risk International – What We’re Watching – Week of Sept 15, 2024. This is an amazing weekly look at global ‘hotspots’ that we recommend subscribing to. Meredith Wilson, Chief Executive Officer & Founder, started Emergent Risk International in 2014. It is one of the most timely sources of trusted global information today.

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Taking Businesses Global Profitably

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues

“The AI Spending Spree, in Charts – Tech giants and investors are shoveling cash into artificial intelligence amid questions about whether it will pay off. Generative artificial intelligence has sparked one of the biggest spending booms in modern American history, as companies and investors bet hundreds of billions of dollars that the technology will revolutionize the global economy and one day lead to massive profits. The question is when, and even whether, all those investments will pay off. “The risk of underinvesting is dramatically greater than the risk of overinvesting,” Sundar Pichai, chief executive of Google parent Alphabet, said on an earnings call in July. Venture capitalists are similarly betting that at least a few AI startups could one day be worth billions or even trillions, even though most currently aren’t profitable.”,  The Wall Street Journal, September 11, 2024

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“Which countries have the critical minerals needed for the energy transition? An overview of the distribution of critical minerals for clean energy. The world’s energy system today is mainly powered by fossil fuels. The transition to a low-carbon one will shift its underpinnings away from coal, oil, and gas to the minerals needed for solar, wind, nuclear, batteries, and other technologies. The dynamics of the energy system will shift dramatically. Who currently produces critical minerals such as cobalt, lithium, nickel, and copper? Which countries have reserves that can be mined in the future?”, Our World In Data, September 16, 2024

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“Deconstructing global trade: the role of geopolitical alignment – The slowdown in global trade, which intensified following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has highlighted threats to globalisation. Since the end of the Second World War, the global economy has become increasingly integrated, with trade playing a central role. Increasing integration has been an engine of economic growth, allowing countries to specialise in the goods and services in which they have a comparative advantage. However, rising geopolitical tensions have fuelled concerns about a possible retreat from globalisation, sometimes called “deglobalisation”. As an illustration, a popular measure of geopolitical risk based on press articles displays a noticeable spike around the time of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and has remained elevated thereafter. Meanwhile, the total value of global trade as a share of global GDP peaked soon after the invasion and has declined since.”, Bank of International Settlements, September 16, 2024

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Simple, secure currency transfers

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Book Review

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Country & Regional Updates

China

“China is suffering from a crisis of confidence – Can anything perk up its economy? According to the National Bureau of Statistics, consumer confidence collapsed in April 2022 when Shanghai and other big cities were locked down to fight the covid-19 pandemic (see chart 1). It has yet to recover. Indeed, confidence declined again in July, according to the latest survey. The figure is so bad it is a wonder the government still releases it. Gloom is not confined to consumers. Foreign companies have long complained about unfair or unpredictable policymaking. Some have declared China “uninvestible” as a consequence. Now their money is running along with their mouths. Foreign direct investment (fdi) in the country slumped to minus $14.8bn in the second quarter of this year, the worst figure on record. Any dollars ploughed in were comfortably outweighed by foreign investors selling stakes, collecting loan repayments or repatriating earnings.”, The Economist, September 5, 2024

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“China’s Energy Needs Keep on Rising – Beginning in the 1990s, rapid industrialization in China led to increased electricity demand for factories and infrastructure. Mass migration to cities and improved living conditions is pushing demand even higher. According to estimates by China’s national statistics department, a 1% increase in the urbanization rate increases total energy consumption by at least 60 million tons of coal.”, Visual Capitalist, August 20, 2024

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European Union Countries

“The Future Of European Competitiveness – Europe has been worrying about slowing growth since the start of this century. Various strategies to raise growth rates have come and gone, but the trend has remained unchanged. On a per capita basis, real disposable income has grown almost twice as much in the US as in the EU since 2000. For most of this period, slowing growth has been seen as an inconvenience but not a calamity. Europe’s exporters managed to capture market shares in faster growing parts of the world, especially Asia. Many more women entered the workforce, lifting the labour contribution to growth. And, after the crises of 2008 to 2012, unemployment steadily fell across Europe, helping to reduce inequality and maintain social welfare. The EU also benefitted from a favourable global environment. World trade burgeoned under multilateral rules. The safety of the US security umbrella freed up defence budgets to spend on other priorities. In a world of stable geopolitics, we had no reason to be concerned about rising dependencies on countries we expected to remain our friends. But the foundations on which we built are now being shaken.”, European Commission, September 2024

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“ECB cuts interest rates to 3.5% – Christine Lagarde says policymakers decided ‘unanimously’ on this year’s second quarter-point reduction. ECB (European Central Bank) president Christine Lagarde said Thursday’s decision to lower the benchmark deposit rate for the second time this year was “unanimously decided” — unlike the previous cut in June, when Austria’s central bank head Robert Holzmann dissented. Major central banks are now lowering rates in response to indications that the biggest inflationary surge for a generation has faded, with the US Federal Reserve expected to start cutting borrowing costs next week. Referring to the ECB’s 2 per cent inflation goal, Lagarde said recent data ‘comforts us in our confidence that we are heading towards our target’.”, The Financial Times, September 12, 2024

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Latin America

“Foreign Investment Trends in Latin America – Latin American countries remain trapped in a low-growth environment, hindered by economic volatility, high inequality and ineffective governance. As a result, many governments in the region are turning to foreign direct investment to spur growth. However, FDI fell by 9.9 percent last year to $184.3 billion. While mergers and acquisitions increased by 15 percent, their total value decreased by 13 percent. FDI is concentrated in a few countries. Brazil attracted 35 percent of the region’s FDI last year, followed by Mexico with 16 percent. Argentina, boosted by the new government of President Javier Milei, came in third with 13 percent, while Chile and Colombia secured 12 percent and 9 percent, respectively. The U.S. remains the largest investor in the region, with the European Union driving mergers and acquisitions. The EU showed the largest increase in FDI from 2022 to 2023, followed by Canada. China remains active but has diminished its investment role compared to a decade ago.”, Geopolitical Futures, September 6, 2024

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“How Populations Have Changed in the Americas (1990-2023) – Currently more than one billion people live in the Americas, an area with 35 countries and many overseas territories and dependencies. This color-coded map shows population changes by country in the Americas from 1990 to 2023. Data was sourced from the 2024 World Population Prospects from the UN. The top 14 largest countries in the Americas by population size have all seen nearly 40% population growth between 1990–2023.”, Visual Capitalist, September 5, 2024

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Southeast Asia

“As cheap Chinese imports flood Southeast Asia, industries struggle to stay afloat – Local industries – from Thailand’s truckers to Malaysia’s retailers – are feeling the squeeze from low-cost Chinese goods. Half of the ceramics factories in Thailand’s northern Lampang province have closed. In Indonesia, thousands of textile workers have lost their jobs. Malaysia’s manufacturers, meanwhile, say the government’s attempt at stemming the tide – a meagre 10 per cent tax on e-commerce – has done little to shield them from the deluge. The flood of Chinese goods has been aided by the world’s largest e-commerce market, as well as new railways and upgraded ports that streamline logistics. An intricate web of free trade agreements – from the Asean Free Trade Area to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership – further paves the way for Chinese products to penetrate local markets.”, South China Morning Post, September 7, 2024

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United States

“US Consumer Sentiment Rises as Inflation Expectations Retreat – University of Michigan sentiment index increased to 69 Short-term inflation views fell to 2.7%, lowest since 2020. US consumer sentiment rose to a four-month high in early September, helped by the tamest short-term inflation expectations since the end of 2020 and prospects for lower borrowing costs. Consumers expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 2.7% over the next year compared with the 2.8% expected a month earlier. That represented a fourth month of declining short-term inflation expectations.”, Bloomberg, September 13, 2024

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The Franchise Consortium’s Franchise Supplier Accreditation Is Coming

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Brand & Franchising News

“Domino’s announces plans to hire 5,000 workers ahead of the festive season in Britain and Ireland – Domino’s plans to hire new staff in a variety roles from new delivery drivers to in-store team members and pizza makers. Over Christmas the company sees a marked increase in demand and the period represents a crucial trading period for companies like Domino’s Pizza. The driving force to ramp up staffing to ensure smooth service for customers.”, The Daily Mail, September 15, 2024

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“IFA to Acquire Multi-Unit Franchising Conference Owner Franchise Update Media – The International Franchise Association will expand its events and media holdings with the acquisition of Franchise Update Media. In a deal set to close by the end of the year, the purchase will put the Multi-Unit Franchising Conference and Multi-Unit Franchisee Magazine, along with numerous franchise education, franchise opportunity and market resource products, under the IFA umbrella. ‘We’re trying to grow as an organization, and this is a lot better way to grow than starting something new and competing with what’s already established,’ said IFA President and CEO Matt Haller as he noted the association is in a strong financial position to make the investment.”, Franchise Times, September 13, 2024

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“Meet The Japanese Noodle Billionaire Taking On McDonald’s And KFC – Takaya Awata parlayed a tiny local diner into quick-service giant Toridoll Holdings. Now he wants to taste global success. When Takaya Awata used his meager savings to open a small restaurant in Kakogawa, a coastal city off Japan’s Seto Inland Sea, the then-23-year-old named it Toridoll Sanban-kan, or Toridoll store No. 3. It was a promise to himself that stores number one and two were only a matter of time and he would soon achieve his modest goal of owning three restaurants. Four decades later, Awata’s Tokyo-listed Toridoll Holdings has a network of nearly 2,000 quick-service restaurants across 28 countries and regions covering 21 brands. The flagship is Marugame Seimen, Japan’s largest udon noodle chain by both revenue and store count. The entrepreneur’s fast-food success has made him a billionaire and honed his ambitions.”, Forbes, September 8, 2024 per cent to $7.9 million and US network sales surged 81.8 per cent to $10.8 million.”, Inside Retail AU, August 27, 2024

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To receive our biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here –  https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries.   We do not get involved in or report on politics!

William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global.  With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other.  He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.

To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here –  https://insider.edwardsglobal.com ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896

www.edwardsglobal.com

Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 116, Tuesday, September, 2024

Commentary about the 116^th Issue: When Will the Global Population Start to Shrink? The average price for fish and chips in the UK rose more than 50 in the five years to July. Global beer consumption is up almost 3% over 2021.  Burger King® loses trademark in India.  Brazil and Vietnam produce 56% of the world’s coffee. The poisonous global politics of water! Canada becomes the latest country to put huge tariffs on Chinese EVs.  Foreigners are pouring US$ billions into Indonesia’s assets.  Circle K® bids US$39 billion for 7-11®. Singapore Air to merge with Air India….really!!! Eurozone countries see lower inflation but very low growth. Planning for natural gas in the transition to renewables. And the world’s ports will need US$2 trillion for the renewables conversion.

Editor’s Note: You will see small ads in each edition for carefully vetted companies that serve international businesses. Please click on the ads or use the QR code to see what each of our carefully chosen advertisers can do to make doing global business easier.

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Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA. Contact Bill with any questions, comments and we welcome contributions.

Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com

https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/

+1 949 375 1896

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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.  Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.  

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“Curiosity is not a trait, it is a superpower.”, Neil Sahota

“All humans are entrepreneurs, not because they should start companies but because the will to create is encoded in human DNA.”, Reid Hoffman

“In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity.”, Albert Einstein

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Highlights in issue #116:

• When Will the Global Population Start to Shrink?

• A $2 Trillion Reckoning Looms as Ports Become Pawns in Geopolitics

• Germany ‘Falling Into Crisis’ as Berlin Suffers Vision Deficit

• Global Money Piles Into Indonesia as Fed Easing Cycle Approaches

• Burger King loses 13-year legal battle against Indian restaurant

• Fish and chips price rise tops UK takeaways

• Brand Global News Section: 7-11®, Burger King®, Circle K®, Guzman Y Guzman®, Luckin Coffee®, Mixue®, Potbelly®, Red Lobster® and TeaPanda®

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B2B Payments Platform For Global Businesses

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

“Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, July 2024 – Despite current geopolitical tensions, the global economy remains resilient. Economic growth in surveyed economies is accelerating, as growth in both the manufacturing and services sectors picked up in June. Manufacturing growth was largely stable (except in the eurozone, where it contracted faster) while services sectors remained bright, albeit expanding at a slower pace. Growth in the second quarter was varied but remained positive across the globe.”, McKinsey & Co., August 23, 2024

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“When Will the Global Population Start to Shrink? – Everyone alive today has only ever lived in a world with a growing population. And for the opposite to be true, the number of people being born would have to be outpaced by the number of people dying. As it happens, that particular inflection point is not too far off according to latest estimates. Figures were sourced from the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024. Global Births and Deaths (1950–2100). In 2023, 132 million babies were born and nearly 62 million people died. Resulting in a population growth of 70 million people (+0.9%). But as birth rates fall around the world, the number of deaths occurring each year is expected to surpass the number of births by 2084. This could potentially kick off an era of global population decline.”, Visual Capitalist & UN, August 13, 2024

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“Which Countries Drink the Most Beer? – The global beer industry is massive, contributing more than half a trillion to global GDP. From barley and hops exporters like France and Argentina to major manufacturers such as Brazil and China, the beer industry is globally interconnected while remaining highly localized. In fact, 89% of supplies used in the beer sector are produced in the domestic market where beer is sold. This graphic shows which countries drink the most beer, based on data from Kirin Holdings. As the above table shows, China, the U.S., and Brazil—the three largest consumers of beer—account for more than 40% of global beer consumption. China takes top spot, a position it has held for the last 20 consecutive years.”, Visual Capitalist and Kirin Holdings, August 30, 2024

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“The poisonous global politics of water – Polarisation makes it harder to adapt to climate change. The world’s water troubles can be summed up in six words: “Too little, too much, too dirty”, says Charlie Iceland of the World Resources Institute (wri), a think-tank. Climate change will only aggravate the problem. Already, roughly half of humanity lives under “highly water-stressed conditions” for at least one month a year. Adapting will require not only new technology but also a new politics. Villages, regions and countries will need to collaborate to share scarce water and build flood defences. The needs of farmers, who use 70% of the world’s freshwater, must be balanced with those of the urbanites they feed, as well as industry.  In short, a politics of trust, give-and-take and long-term planning is needed. Yet the spread of “them-and-us” demagoguery makes this harder.”, The Economist, August 26, 2024

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues

“Gas industry group says energy demand not reflected in climate planning – International Gas Union claims ‘significant gap’ in scenarios to achieve net zero emissions by 2030. The Swiss-based International Gas Union said there was a “significant gap” between what was forecast for demand based on historical consumption patterns and the pathways shown by institutions such as the International Energy Agency to achieve the cuts in emissions behind climate change. The IGU report showed that between 2021 and 2024, global energy demand had risen 2.7 per cent annually. At that pace, the world would consume 586 exajoules (EJ) of energy in 2030, according to the IGU. This would be led by ‘new sources of power demand’ such as the adoption of energy-intensive AI, as well as the increased need for cooling, especially in developing countries, brought about by more extreme temperatures, the group said.”, The Financial Times, August 27, 2024

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“A $2 Trillion Reckoning Looms as Ports Become Pawns in Geopolitics – The gateways to global trade face costly conversions to retool in new era of rivalry, automation and green energy. For centuries, control of the world’s biggest shipping centers helped expand empires, spark and settle wars, ease poverty and build middle classes while giving international companies access to cheap workers and cash-flush consumers in distant markets. Now, both old and new gateways for seaborne commerce⁠— responsible for handling 80% of the world’s $25 trillion in annual merchandise trade⁠—are economic fortresses in the great-power struggles of a multipolar world. Meantime, they’re having to undergo costly and painstaking conversions to digital technologies, automation and green energy with a price tag estimated at €200 billion ($216 billion) a year in new investment, for a total of €2 trillion over the next decade.”, Bloomberg, August 20, 2024

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“Inflation Eases in US and Europe & World Borrowing Cost Change in 2024 – Inflation cooled in the US and Europe, setting the stage for policymakers in both regions to lower interest rates in September. On a three-month annualized basis, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying US inflation advanced 1.7% in July, the slowest this year. In Europe, consumer prices rose 2.2% in August from a year ago — the tamest since mid-2021 and significantly lower than the 2.6% pace a month earlier. Meantime, inflation in Tokyo — a leading indicator of the national data due in September — picked up speed in August. Hungary kept the key interest rate unchanged for the first time in more than a year, while Guatemala and Kazakhstan also held. Israel’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 4.5%, and said it’s likely to refrain from cuts for the rest of the year as the war in Gaza continues. Dominican Republic cut.”, Bloomberg, August 31, 2024

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“There’s a China-Shaped Hole in the Global Economy – China’s low-consuming, high-investing economy guarantees conflict with other countries. China’s economy is unusual. Whereas consumers contribute 50% to 75% of gross domestic product in other major economies, in China they account for 40%. Investment, such as in property, infrastructure and factories, and exports provide most of the rest.  Lately, that low consumption has become a headwind to China’s growth because property investment, once a major component of demand, has collapsed. This isn’t just a problem for China; it’s a problem for the whole world. What Chinese companies can’t sell to Chinese consumers, they export.”, The Wall Street Journal, August 29, 2024

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“Climate Change Means Coffee’s Future May Depend on Niche Growers – Some 40 countries grow coffee, but more than half of global production has long come from just two: Brazil and Vietnam. So when bad weather hits both — an increasing risk in a destabilized climate — supplies get threatened and prices soar. Take this year’s $9 lattes, as drought gripped both nations. A similar vulnerability has also played out in chocolate this year as cocoa prices spiked to a record because of bad weather and disease in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which make up the majority of global supplies. Coffee importers and roasters realize this urgency and the need to climate-proof supplies.”, Bloomberg, August 30, 2024

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Global & Regional Travel & Living

“Heathrow’s third runway asks questions of the airport and Labour – A decades long saga is not over yet. Heathrow has operated at close to maximum capacity for more than a decade. The question facing Thomas Woldbye, Heathrow’s chief executive, and its new backers—Ardian, a French private-equity firm, and the Saudi Public Investment Fund (pif), which have agreed to acquire stakes of 22.6% and 15% respectively—is how to increase the number of passengers it can manage. Heathrow…is focused on simpler fixes for now. The airport says that a new baggage system in Terminal 2 and improvements to security lanes, for instance, would increase capacity. But improvements of this sort will get Heathrow only so far. If it is to handle many more people, it needs another runway.”, The Economist, August 29, 2024

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“Former Expedia exec’s startup uses AI to help smaller companies book travel – Small businesses and startups often lack a dedicated travel desk, forcing executives and founders to rely on human assistants or consuming and cumbersome travel apps. Expedia’s former SVP of consumer product, Michael Gulmann, is betting on AI to bridge the gap. His company, Otto, emerges from stealth Thursday, with plans to launch an alpha version of the platform to select U.S. participants in September. The service is designed to quickly facilitate flight and hotel bookings through natural language queries. Gulmann told TechCrunch that while the likes of TravelPerk and Concur focus on large enterprises, Otto is looking to serve customers who lack access to the services. ‘Think of Otto as a high-end travel agent or executive assistant that remembers your preferences, such as your choice of hotels and flights. It will also remember other nuances such as if you prefer to stay within 10 minutes of your meeting place,’ Gulmann said.”, Tech Crunch, August 22, 2024

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“Hilton to maintain breakneck China expansion pace, targets 100 new hotels per year – Global hotel chain operator Hilton is bullish over the growth potential of mainland China’s leisure travel market and plans to maintain its fast-paced expansion in the country, with a focus on niche brands. The company, which owns brands like Conrad and Waldorf Astoria, aims to add at least 100 new hotels in China annually over the next few years to cater to increasing travel demand, Qian Jin, president of Hilton Greater China and Mongolia, said in an interview. ‘Niche brands are in high demand to offer personalised services to tourists,’ he said. ‘We have to fine-tune those brands as we move to some specific destinations to capture the growth opportunities.’”, South China Morning Post, 26 August 2024. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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“Deal to create one of world’s largest airline groups gets regulator approval – Indian government approves Singapore Airlines’ FDI for Vistara-Air India merger. Vistara, a full-service carrier jointly owned by India’s Tata Group and Singapore Airlines, will be absorbed into Air India as part of the deal and cease operating its own flights from 12 November. Air India is also owned by the Tata Group.”, The Independent, August 31, 2024

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Book Review

“Atomic Habits: An Easy & Proven Way to Build Good Habits & Break Bad Ones” by James Clear is a practical guide that explores how small, incremental changes, known as “atomic habits,” can lead to significant personal transformation. The book emphasizes the power of consistent actions, suggesting that these tiny behaviors, when compounded, create remarkable results over time. Clear introduces a framework for behavior change based on four principles: make habits obvious, attractive, easy, and satisfying. 

He highlights the importance of identity in habit formation, arguing that lasting change comes from adopting an identity aligned with the habits we want to cultivate. The book also discusses the habit loop (cue, craving, response, reward) and the role of environment in shaping behavior. Clear introduces concepts like habit stacking and the Goldilocks Rule, which help make new habits stick and maintain motivation. Overall, “Atomic Habits” offers actionable strategies for mastering small behaviors that lead to long-term success. The book introduces the habit loop, consisting of cue, craving, response, and reward, which is essential for understanding and modifying behavior. Additionally, Clear highlights the role of environment in shaping our habits, advocating for the design of surroundings that support positive behaviors and minimize negative triggers.

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Country & Regional Updates

Australia

“Retail Food Group brews $14.7m turnaround, plans rebrand to ‘Savora’ – Gold Coast-headquartered Retail Food Group (ASX: RFG) is moving on from its patchy past with a new name after returning to profitability in FY24, lifting its bottom line from a loss of $8.9 million to a net profit after tax of $5.8 million. The profit result is RFG’s highest in seven years, of which four were loss-making and included major setbacks from litigation, franchise closures, reputational damage from public franchisee complaints, and a COVID share price slump from which the group has never recovered.”, Business News Australia, August 20, 2024

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Canada

“Ottawa to impose 100-per-cent tariff on Chinese-made EVs – On Monday, the federal government announced a 100-per-cent tariff on Chinese-made EVs, as well as a 25-per-cent tariff on steel and aluminum products from China – both of which will come into effect in early October. The EV tariff applies to some hybrid passenger cars, trucks, buses and delivery vans, and is in addition to a pre-existing import tariff of 6.1 per cent that already applies to Chinese-made EVs coming into Canada.”, The Globe and Mail, August 26, 2024

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China

“China’s milk consumption is climbing, leading U.S. farmers to expand exports  – China is only the third largest importer of American dairy, after Mexico and Canada, spending $607 million last year. But, considering the changing cultural attitudes towards dairy, it also represents one of the largest growth opportunities. According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, China consumes about 15% of what Americans consume per capita. If that gap closes China would add more than $600 billion to the global dairy market. Even amid rising geopolitical tensions, the U.S. and other countries are fighting for a slice of that…cheese. China’s minister of international trade, Wang Shouwen last month invited American dairy firms to set up shop in China and the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced a $1.2 billion investment in dairy exports.”, Fortune, August 14, 2024

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“Top private equity firms put brakes on China dealmaking – Activity dries up amid Beijing’s listings crackdown and planned US investment curbs. Dealmaking in the world’s second-largest economy has slowed significantly, with just five new investments — mostly small — by the 10 largest global buyout firms this year. The figures underscore how quickly overseas investors’ enthusiasm for China, once a hot market, has waned in recent years. The same 10 firms collectively made 30 investments in the country as recently as 2021 and similar numbers in earlier years, but the numbers have fallen every year since then. This year, seven of the 10 have made no new investments at all, the figures from Dealogic show. ‘China has been a roller coaster for investors, with geopolitical tensions, regulatory unpredictability and economic headwinds,’ said Kher Sheng Lee, Asia-Pacific co-head for the Alternative Investment Management Association.”, The Financial Times, August 24, 2024

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Australia

“Retail Food Group brews $14.7m turnaround, plans rebrand to ‘Savora’ – Gold Coast-headquartered Retail Food Group (ASX: RFG) is moving on from its patchy past with a new name after returning to profitability in FY24, lifting its bottom line from a loss of $8.9 million to a net profit after tax of $5.8 million. The profit result is RFG’s highest in seven years, of which four were loss-making and included major setbacks from litigation, franchise closures, reputational damage from public franchisee complaints, and a COVID share price slump from which the group has never recovered.”, Business News Australia, August 20, 2024

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Canada

“Ottawa to impose 100-per-cent tariff on Chinese-made EVs – On Monday, the federal government announced a 100-per-cent tariff on Chinese-made EVs, as well as a 25-per-cent tariff on steel and aluminum products from China – both of which will come into effect in early October. The EV tariff applies to some hybrid passenger cars, trucks, buses and delivery vans, and is in addition to a pre-existing import tariff of 6.1 per cent that already applies to Chinese-made EVs coming into Canada.”, The Globe and Mail, August 26, 2024

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China

“China’s milk consumption is climbing, leading U.S. farmers to expand exports  – China is only the third largest importer of American dairy, after Mexico and Canada, spending $607 million last year. But, considering the changing cultural attitudes towards dairy, it also represents one of the largest growth opportunities. According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, China consumes about 15% of what Americans consume per capita. If that gap closes China would add more than $600 billion to the global dairy market. Even amid rising geopolitical tensions, the U.S. and other countries are fighting for a slice of that…cheese. China’s minister of international trade, Wang Shouwen last month invited American dairy firms to set up shop in China and the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced a $1.2 billion investment in dairy exports.”, Fortune, August 14, 2024

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“Top private equity firms put brakes on China dealmaking – Activity dries up amid Beijing’s listings crackdown and planned US investment curbs. Dealmaking in the world’s second-largest economy has slowed significantly, with just five new investments — mostly small — by the 10 largest global buyout firms this year. The figures underscore how quickly overseas investors’ enthusiasm for China, once a hot market, has waned in recent years. The same 10 firms collectively made 30 investments in the country as recently as 2021 and similar numbers in earlier years, but the numbers have fallen every year since then. This year, seven of the 10 have made no new investments at all, the figures from Dealogic show. ‘China has been a roller coaster for investors, with geopolitical tensions, regulatory unpredictability and economic headwinds,’ said Kher Sheng Lee, Asia-Pacific co-head for the Alternative Investment Management Association.”, The Financial Times, August 24, 2024

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Europe/Eurozone

“What makes Europe so liveable? Every year the Economist Intelligence Unit (eiu), our sister company, ranks a big group of global cities on their liveability. This year’s rankings have seen quite a bit of movement. But the top of the index remains dominated by the continent that best combines stability with a high quality of culture and the environment, education, infrastructure and health care, all of which the index’s authors aim to measure objectively. When the scores are done, Europe can take another bow.”, The Economist, August 29, 2024

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“Eurozone inflation falls to 2.2% in August – Markets expect further ECB rate cuts following dip in price pressures. Eurozone inflation fell sharply to a three-year low of 2.2 per cent in August, bolstering expectations that the European Central Bank will reduce interest rates next month. Friday’s preliminary figure was in line with a forecast of 2.2 per cent in a Reuters poll and below last month’s rate of 2.6 per cent. ‘The inflation environment is slowly getting more benign,’ said Bert Colijn, Eurozone economist at ING, referring to the progress in bringing the headline rate of inflation close to the ECB’s 2 per cent target. The data from Eurostat came after Germany and Spain reported sharper than expected reductions in August in figures this week.”, The Financial Times, August 30, 2024

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Germany

“”Germany ‘Falling Into Crisis’ as Berlin Suffers Vision Deficit – European Central Bank chiefs were vilified in Germany for much of the past decade or so……the country has suffered over the past two decades from the effects of a broad lack of vision on the part of its governments. Now, a near-ideological support for balanced federal budgets has left the economy with no one at the helm to lay out a course for growth. The appetite for setting up a new business in Germany just hit a record low, according to a survey released last week. And, back to the economic stats: Germany’s real GDP last quarter was just 0.4% bigger than five years before.”, Bloomberg, August 28, 2024

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India

“Burger King loses 13-year legal battle against Indian restaurant – Pune court rules Indian restaurant had been using name for over a decade before American chain started doing business in country. An Indian court dismissed a suit filed by Burger King Corporation alleging trademark infringement by Burger King in Pune city, in the western state of Maharashtra, noting that the restaurant had been in operation since 1992, years before the multinational company started doing business in the country. Burger King Corporation was founded in 1953 as Insta-Burger King and rechristened Burger King in 1959. It entered the Indian market in November 2014, opening its first outlet in the capital Delhi, and arrived in Pune the next year.”, The Independent, August 20, 2024

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“India Port Workers Reach Pay Deal Averting Strike – The latest showdown between dockworkers in a major trading nation and their port employers appears to be ending without any significant disruptions. Port employees’ unions in India agreed to a new five-year wage dealwith government officials, averting a planned nationwide strike scheduled to start Wednesday, Bloomberg’s  Rajesh Kumar Singhand Weilun Soon report today. The new deal halts a walkout that could have involved nearly 20,000 workers and brought widespread disruption to cargo operations at some of the nation’s busiest ports. Unions at India’s 12 major state-run ports have been negotiating with the government since 2021 to try to increase pay.”, Bloomberg, August 28, 2024

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Indonesia

“Global Money Piles Into Indonesia as Fed Easing Cycle Approaches – Foreigners pour billions of dollars into its assets in August. Indonesia offers fiscal discipline, valuations with rate cuts. lobal money has flooded into Indonesia’s financial markets this month, signaling the country’s assets have quickly become a preferred investment destination as the US Federal Reserve’s easing cycle nears. Overseas investors have bought $933.8 million of the nation’s stocks in August, on course for the biggest monthly purchases since April 2022, while net inflows of $2.5 billion into bonds is the most in more than a year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The influx of money saw the rupiah briefly erase this year’s losses against the dollar, with a gain this month surpassed in Asia only by Malaysia’s ringgit.”, Bloomberg, August 26, 2024

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United Arab Emirates

“Guggenheim Rises in the Desert as Abu Dhabi Morphs Into Expat Hub – The emirate is attempting to draw wealthy foreigners to invest and work. All around, there are growing signs of a massive construction boom that’s changing the face of this once sleepy, oil-rich emirate, which holds about 6% of the world’s crude reserves under its sands and controls $1.5 trillion in sovereign wealth. Sprawling theme parks, five-star hotels, luxury homes, sports complexes and high-end office towers are rising at breakneck speed as the city’s rulers spend billions to diversify the economy and cater to global financial giants……who’ve set up here. The Guggenheim is part of a more than $10 billion push to boost tourism and cultural activity in the emirate, the capital of the United Arab Emirates. Meantime, Abu Dhabi is also pouring billions more into building sprawling residential developments to attract rich expatriates to live and work here. Wealthy buyers from the UK, India, Spain and beyond are snapping up seaside villas costing millions.”, Bloomberg, August 25, 2024

Editor’s Note: I first traveled to the UAE in 1994. There was one western chain hotel on Sheikh Zayed Road in Dubai, the Crown Plaza. Abu Dhabi was the very conservative capital of the Emirates that was 87 miles and a world away from even then flashy Dubai.

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United Kingdom

“Fish and chips price rise tops UK takeaways – Fish and chips is a British family favourite equally enjoyed around the table on a Friday night or out of the paper on an often overcast beach. But the deep fried delicacy has seen the biggest price increase of some of the UK’s most popular takeaways, according to new figures. The average price for a portion of fish and chips rose more than 50% to nearly £10 in the five years to July – while the cost of a kebab went up 44% and pizza 30%. Chip shop owners cite a “perfect storm” of costs in recent years, including soaring energy bills, tariffs on seafood imports and extreme weather hammering potato harvests.”, BBC, August 25, 2024

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United States

“Meet America’s Top Restaurant Groups – The 125 biggest multi-concept groups that are making their mark on communities across the country. With help from our partners at Technomic, we’ve identified 125 of the biggest restaurant groups in the country, breaking down the list by the four U.S. regions as identified by the Census Bureau: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West. Meet them below, and revisit the list throughout the year as we endeavor to profile all 125.”, Nation’s Restaurant News, August 28, 2024

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Bill Edwards and Keith Gerson Announce the Formation of The Franchise Consortium

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Brand & Franchising News

“Potbelly – From Corporate Owned Restaurant Model To A Franchise Model – Potbelly Sandwich Shops has taken significant steps to transition from a corporate store model to a robust franchise system. Lynette McKee, CFE and Senior Vice President of Franchising at Potbelly is leading this transformation. To reach 2,000 franchised units and achieve an 85% franchise system, Potbelly is focused on maintaining its core values while expanding its presence nationwide……the transition requires more than scaling operations—it demands a careful review of existing practices, clear communication, and a commitment to staying true to the brand’s mission. At the heart of Potbelly’s strategy is a comprehensive franchise training program designed to ensure that new franchisees understand the unique elements that set Potbelly apart from competitors. This focus on training and brand consistency is crucial for maintaining the welcoming vibe that has made the brand successful.”, Forbes, August 23, 2024

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“Embracing AI: How Franchise Service Brands Are Revolutionizing Business Operations – The franchising and home service industries are constantly evolving, with technological advancements like artificial intelligence (AI) playing a significant role in shaping how these businesses operate. As consumer expectations shift toward more efficient and personalized services, many home service franchises are turning to AI. The demand for AI systems is expected to grow by 21% annually until 2030, further reflecting this trend. AI is also setting new standards in customer service by improving how businesses interact with and serve their customers. By managing appointments, AI can provide real-time updates, offering clients a more streamlined and efficient service experience while keeping franchise owners a step ahead of the competition. Beyond enhancing customer experiences, AI is also revolutionizing data management. While AI is beneficial for new customers, it can also double-check and organize existing data.“, Franchising.com, August 24, 2024

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“Guzman Y Guzman’s revenue soars 32 per cent – Guzman Y Guzman (Australia) delivered revenue of $342.2 million in the last fiscal year, up 32.1 per cent, thanks to opening new restaurants. However, the fast-food operator’s statutory net loss widened to $13.7 million. This is the first time the Mexican fast food chain published financial results since its initial public offering on June 20. During the fiscal year, the company saw network sales of $959.7 million, an increase of 26.4 per cent. Australian network sales grew 27.3 per cent to $894.6 million, while Singapore network sales rose 7.5 per cent to $46.4 million. Japan network sales climbed 12.3 per cent to $7.9 million and US network sales surged 81.8 per cent to $10.8 million.”, Inside Retail AU, August 27, 2024

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“Circle K Owner Makes a Move Toward Acquiring 7-Eleven for a Staggering Sum – If successful, the 7-Eleven acquisition would be the largest-ever foreign buyout of a Japanese company. Canada’s Alimentation Couche-Tard has reportedly approached Japan’s Seven & i Holdings, the owner of 7-Eleven, about a potential takeover valued at around $38 billion. 7-Eleven is the world’s largest convenience store chain, with more than 13,000 locations in North America and over 83,000 worldwide. If successful, the acquisition would be the largest-ever foreign buyout of a Japanese company.”, Entrepreneur magazine, August 21, 2024

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“Red Lobster’s new owner names former P.F. Chang’s CEO to lead chain – Damola Adamolekun will take the reins of the struggling seafood giant after a sale to Fortress Investment Group is finalized. His tenure at Chang’s made him a rising star in the industry.

 Adamolekun has a background in investment banking and was a partner at Paulson & Co. when it took a stake in P.F. Chang’s in 2019. He was then tapped to lead the Asian casual-dining chain as CEO. He helped guide Chang’s through the pandemic and led a refresh of its restaurants, menu and technology.”, Restaurant Business, August 26, 2024

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“Luckin Coffee planning massive overseas expansion – Latepost, a unit of Caijing Magazine, reported that Luckin is planning to expand overseas with focus on Southeast Asia and the United States. The company was not available for comment. Luckin runs over 20,000 stores in China, with its operations covering both online and offline channels.

There are 38 directly run Luckin stores in Singapore, with the first one having opened in April 2023.Unlike in China, Luckin does not prioritize its low-price approach in Singapore. In the first half of this year, Luckin started discussions with BJ Food, the franchiser of Starbucks in Malaysia, to form a joint venture for entry into the Malaysian market.  In June, Luckin announced plans to buy about 120,000 metric tons of coffee beans from Brazil from 2024 to 2025.”, China Daily, August 20, 2024. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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“Pressure Builds on Trailblazing Chinese Bubble Tea Brand Mixue – With over 36,000 stores in China and the rest of the world, Mixue Bingcheng Co. Ltd. dominates the market by offering milk tea with tapioca, ice cream, and juice at budget-friendly prices of 2 to 10 yuan (14 U.S. cents to $1.40), far less than competitors like HeyTea and Nayuki which charge double or triple that. On the Chinese mainland, many of its stores are located in smaller cities and suburban areas, offering sugar hits to price-sensitive consumers. But now, local brands are returning fire, and analysts say the lack of product differentiation that facilitated rapid growth could become a weakness. It could also be why firms like Mixue are struggling to mount a successful listing.  China’s largest milk tea franchise was an early mover in mounting its global expansion two years before the Covid pandemic hit. But the company’s recently lapsed Hong Kong IPO has cast a shadow over the industry’s prospects.”, Caixin Global, August 23, 2024

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“TeaPanda opens its first European store in Barcelona and uses the TeaPanda trademark – Chabaidao, which continues to increase the number of stores in South Korea, Thailand and Australia, has extended its overseas reach to Europe and chose Barcelona, ​​Spain as the site for its first European store. Recently, a social media account named “Tea 100 Spain” was launched, announcing that the first store in Spain has officially landed near the Arc de Triomphe in Barcelona. Many local users also posted photos of the current enclosure of the store, revealing that it is currently under renovation. However, some users have doubts about the authenticity of the Spanish store’s English name being “TeaPanda” instead of “Chapanda.”, Caijing.com.cn, August 21, 2024. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries.   We do not get involved in or report on politics!

William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global.  With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other.  He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.

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