Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 125, Tuesday, January 7, 2025

Predictions, Predictions, Predictions, Predictions!!!

Commentary about the 125th Issue: This issue has links to 20+ prediction sources that cover just about everything we need to be aware of in 2025 to do business in our own countries and around the world.

This issue also covers franchise trends for 2025, the world’s top companies and the world’s richest countries, the global semiconductor industry, challenges for the global supply chain, a US$1.3 million-dollar tuna in Japan, the fact that green energy is not cheap, European Union countries may be seeing a slight economic improvement but the United Kingdom is not, a slowing of India’s economy, the decline of TGI Fridays and wonderful quotation from U.S. President Jimmy Carter.

One More Thing: Few now expect China to catch up with the U.S. before midcentury, if it manages to at all.

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The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.  Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access. 

You will see small ads in each edition for carefully vetted companies that serve international businesses. Please click on the ads or use the QR code to see what each of our carefully chosen advertisers can do to make doing global business easier. Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)

Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamedwards/ +1 949 375 1896

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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“We must adjust to changing times and still hold to unchanging principles.”, U.S. President Jimmy Carter

“A bad attitude is like a flat tire; if you do not change it you won’t go anywhere.”, Joyce Meyer. Compliments of Judge Jim Gray

“Teamwork is dependent on trusting the other folks to come through with their part without watching them all the time.”, Steve Jobs

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Highlights in issue #124:

The World’s Top Companies by Revenue in 2024

The Value of the Global Semiconductor Industry

Franchise M&A Experts Predict Robust 2025 for Dealmaking

China Industries to Watch in 2025

Year of Global Supply Chains Turbulent Landscape

EU Economy Shows Modest Improvement

Brand Global News Section: Cava®, Doner Shack®, Lao Xiang Ji, Raising Canes®, Starbucks®, TGI Fridays® and Wingstop®

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Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

2025 Prediction Sources – The following twenty-one 2025 prediction sources are eclectic, very diverse and some are certain to be wrong. They cover the economy, climate change, technology, China, the Middle East, Europe, the United Kingdom and the United States, the impact of Trump’s election, trade policies, fiscal policies, geopolitical tensions, taxes, health, exports and imports, research, stock markets, bitcoin, interest rates, the U.S. dollar, tariffs, shipping, supply chain, nearshoring, energy, inflation as well as stagflation, employment and unemployment as well as many other factors that go together to impact doing business around the world in 2025. The comments and projections in these predictions are not necessarily those of the editor of this newsletter.

The Times: “Could the boosters be wrong about the global economy in 2025?” – An analysis of differing economic projections for the global economy in 2025, highlighting potential challenges and uncertainties.

El País: “La economía mundial en 2025: claves para entender un año marcado por la vuelta del imprevisible Donald Trump” – An exploration of how global economic dynamics in 2025 may be influenced by significant political changes, particularly in the United States. The article titled “La economía mundial en 2025: claves para entender un año marcado por la vuelta del imprevisible Donald Trump” from El País discusses the potential global economic implications of Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency in 2025.

FocusEconomics: “Global Economic Prospects for 2025” – A comprehensive report providing forecasts on global economic growth, inflation, and other key indicators for 2025.

J.P. Morgan: “Outlook 2025: Building on Strength” – An investment outlook discussing potential global economic scenarios, market strategies, and investment opportunities for 2025.

IMD Business School: “The Business World in 2025” – A report presenting four scenarios to help businesses stress test their strategies against potential future developments by 2025.

“What the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2025 – The experts at Good Judgment weigh in on the coming year. The Economist

Financial Times: “Business trends, risks and companies to watch in 2025” – This article discusses anticipated global business trends, potential risks, and key companies to monitor in 2025.

Convera: “Are you ready for 2025? A global economic forecast” – An analysis of anticipated global economic conditions in 2025, highlighting opportunities and risks for international businesses.

Forbes: “4 Small Business Predictions For 2025 You Must Read” – An article outlining key predictions and trends that small businesses should prepare for by 2025.

The Atlantic: “Ten Predictions for 2025” – This article explores forecasts such as teleportation testing, the decline of dementia, and solar energy becoming the largest energy source.

World Economic Forum: “Future shocks: 17 technology predictions for 2025”: Insights into technological advancements expected by 2025, including quantum computing and 5G developments.

Quantumrun: “Predictions for 2025 | Future timeline” – A comprehensive list of 785 predictions covering various sectors like culture, technology, science, health, and business.

KnowInsiders: “Prophecies for 2025 from Past and Present Seers” – An exploration of predictions from figures like Baba Vanga, focusing on natural disasters and extreme weather events.

TechAcute: “What 2025 Holds: Predictions Based on Survey” – Survey-based insights into societal and technological changes anticipated by 2025.

Eckerson: “Predictions 2025: Everything is About to Change” – An analysis of upcoming changes in data responsibility platforms and analytics by 2025.

Futurebase: “Predictions for the Year 2025 – Future Timeline” – A curated list of 31 future predictions across transport, technology, food, and health.

Ipsos: “Ipsos Predictions Survey 2025” – A survey revealing global anxieties about climate change and confidence in technological solutions.

Forbes: “What Is Bitcoin’s Price Prediction For 2025?” – An analysis of factors influencing Bitcoin’s potential growth by 2025.

The Times: “The Times view on what the year ahead holds: The World in 2025” – An editorial discussing anticipated global events and trends for 2025.

“2025 – A Year of Complexity, Caution, and Emerging Possibilities”, As 2024 draws to an end, here are the thoughts and predictions on ⑫ areas shaping the coming year from Jonathan Lishawa, award-winning IoT & Smart Energy CEO.

Business, the economy and the pound in your pocket – what to expect from 2025. Biggest cause of uncertainty posed by incoming Trump administration.

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“The World’s Top Companies by Revenue in 2024 – Today, U.S. retail giants are the largest companies by revenue globally thanks to their international reach and the strength of the American consumer. Looking beyond the U.S., many of the world’s leading companies by this measure are in the energy sector. Notable heavyweights, such as Saudi Aramco and China National Petroleum, are predominantly state-owned with expansive global operations.  This graphic shows the top companies by revenue worldwide, based on data from Fortune.”, Visual Capitalist & Fortune magazine, December 30, 2024

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“The world’s richest countries in 2024 – Our annual ranking compares economies in three different ways. The Economisttherefore ranks countries by three measures: dollar income per person, income adjusted for local prices (known as purchasing-power parity, or ppp) and income per hour worked. Take America first. Its gdp has been the largest at market exchange rates for over a century. But by income per person it falls to sixth, behind Luxembourg (first) and Switzerland (second). Adjusting for America’s higher prices pushes it down to ninth; accounting for its long workdays and limited holidays, to tenth. The results for China—the world’s second-largest economy in nominal terms—are even starker: it falls to 69th by gdp per person, 75th at local prices and 97th after accounting for hours worked.”, The Economist, July 4, 2024

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“The Value of the Global Semiconductor Industry – This graphic visualizes the market capitalization of the entire global semiconductor industry as of Dec. 30, 2024. Data was accessed from Companiesmarketcap.com, and only covers publicly-traded companies. 

Nvidia is currently the world’s most valuable semiconductor company, followed by Broadcom and TSMC.”, Visual Capitalist & Companiesmarketcap.com, January 6, 2025

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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation, Taxes & Trade Issues

“Green Electricity Costs a Bundle – The data make clear: The notion that solar and wind power save money is an environmentalist lie. The claim that green energy is cheaper relies on bogus math that measures the cost of electricity only when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing. Modern societies need around-the-clock power, requiring backup, often powered by fossil fuels. That means we’re paying for two power systems: renewables and backup. Moreover, as fossil fuels are used less, those power sources need to earn their capital costs back in fewer hours, leading to even more expensive power. This means the real energy costs of solar and wind are far higher than what green campaigners claim. One study shows that in China the real cost of solar power on average is twice as high as that of coal. Similarly, a peer-reviewed study of Germany and Texas shows that solar and wind are many times more expensive than fossil fuels.”, The Wall Street Journal, January 2, 2025

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“Shipowners switch to smaller vessels as world trade reroutes from China – Attacks on Red Sea ships have also hit demand for bulkiest carriers. The rerouting of global trade from China to ports elsewhere in Asia is leading shipowners to move on from the era of ordering ever-larger vessels and switch to smaller crafts instead. Just six container ships capable of carrying the equivalent of more than 17,000 20-foot containers, known in industry parlance as TEUs, are due to be delivered in 2025, against 17 delivered in 2020, according to shipbroker Braemar. At the same time, 83 mid-sized vessels measuring between 12,000 TEUs and 16,999 TEUs are set to be completed in 2025, almost five times the number five years earlier.”, The Financial Times, January 1, 2025

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“Year of Global Supply Chains Turbulent Landscape – From escalating geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation to crippling labor shortages and the ripple effects of technological disruption, 2024 has been a year of adaptation and innovation, forcing stakeholders to rethink traditional approaches and embrace new strategies to navigate the complexities of a rapidly evolving global trade landscape. The U.S.-China trade war continued to cast a long shadow over the global economy, with the European Union caught in the crossfire between the two superpowers. The global supply chain faced another hurdle in 2024: a surge of excess inventory, primarily in the technology sector.”, EPS News, December 31, 2025

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Global, Regional & Country Travel

“Traveling in 2025? Here are some need-to-know changes happening next year – From new ID and entry and exit requirements to updated airline refund policies, there are notable new rules affecting tourists coming in the new year. Starting in 2025, travelers will be impacted by international travel updates, as well as by changes in domestic flight ID rules for U.S. flyers. Meanwhile, advantageous customer protections are finally being locked into place, and some airlines have announced welcome cabin overhauls.”, National Geographic, December 30, 2025

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Book Review

In On Xi Jinping: How Xi’s Marxist Nationalism is Shaping China and the World, Kevin Rudd provides a compelling analysis of Xi Jinping’s leadership style, ideological framework, and the profound impact of his governance on China and global affairs. Rudd explores Xi’s deep-rooted Marxist-Leninist convictions intertwined with Chinese nationalism, revealing how these principles drive his domestic and international policies. Kevin Rudd is the Ambassador to the USA from Australia and the former Prime Minister of Australia.

Under Xi, China has witnessed a centralization of power, aggressive economic reforms, and a return to ideological orthodoxy. Domestically, his emphasis on party discipline and anti-corruption campaigns has solidified the Communist Party’s grip on power. Internationally, Xi’s vision of the “China Dream” and Belt and Road Initiative reflect his ambitions for China to reclaim a dominant global role.

Rudd delves into Xi’s strategic calculus, highlighting how his approach diverges from predecessors by challenging the liberal international order and reshaping global institutions to align with Beijing’s interests. The book also examines Xi’s handling of critical issues, including Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the South China Sea, while addressing the risks posed by escalating tensions with the United States.

Rudd’s work provides crucial insights into understanding Xi Jinping’s China—a nation at the crossroads of its rise and its complex relationship with the world.

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The Accredited Franchise Supplier certification

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Country & Regional Updates

Brazil

“How Will Brazil’s Financial Crisis Evolve in 2025? Despite financial markets’ recent turbulence, Brazil is unlikely to pursue a harsh fiscal adjustment in the coming months, meaning persistent investor concern over the country’s debt trajectory will continue to undermine macroeconomic conditions and the business environment. Economists now expect the Central Bank’s main interest rate to reach 14.75% by the end of 2025 (up from the 12.25% they forecasted in mid-November); they also expect Brazil’s inflation rate to hit 4.96% by the end of next year (versus the 4.34% forecast in mid-November).”, Geopolitical Futures/RANE World View, December 30, 2024

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China

“China Industries to Watch in 2025 – As the world’s second-largest economy, China continues to be a hub of innovation and economic dynamism. Its vast domestic market, advanced digital ecosystem, and strategic focus on modernization have made it a global leader in several industries. In 2025, China’s evolving consumer preferences, policy shifts, and technological advancements will shape opportunities for businesses and investors alike. From the rise of green technologies to the growing appetite for health-conscious products, the country offers lucrative avenues for foreign firms ready to adapt to its unique market dynamics. However, thriving in China’s competitive environment requires more than just identifying growth areas. Businesses must navigate complex regulatory frameworks, cultural nuances, and a fast-paced digital transformation. By understanding the opportunities and challenges in key sectors, companies can position themselves effectively to succeed in one of the world’s most dynamic markets. This article explores the top industries to watch in China in 2025 and provides insights into overcoming potential hurdles.”, The American Chamber of Commerce in China (AmCham), January 3, 2025 (The link can be very slow to load.)

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“China’s Economy Is Burdened by Years of Excess. Here’s How Bad It Really Is. Overindebtedness, overbuilding and overcapacity are causing problems at home and abroad. China’s rapid growth meant that for years forecasters expected China to overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy. As recently as 2019, some forecasters were expecting China’s GDP to eclipse the U.S.’s around 2030. Today, it is the U.S. powering the global economy and China that is battling stumbling growth. Few now expect China to catch upwith the U.S. before midcentury, if it manages to at all.”, The Wall Street Journal, January 1, 2025

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European Union

“EU Economy Shows Modest Improvement – The EU economy is recovering modestly but still faces significant structural adjustments and external pressures. In the third quarter of 2024, gross domestic product grew 0.4 percent compared with the previous three-month period in both the eurozone and the broader EU, fueled by steady domestic consumption and a rebound in international tourism. Rising energy costs, worsened by the cutoff of Russian gas, are straining industrial economies, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe. Southern Europe is grappling with high youth unemployment and growing sectoral inequalities, further straining social stability. Global trade uncertainties, including weaker Chinese demand and potential U.S.-EU frictions, are undermining export growth.”, Geopolitical Futures, January 3, 2025

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India

“Has the ‘India trade’ run out of steam? Slowing growth and high inflation hit household incomes and raise questions about economic fundamentals. Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles.  GDP growth in the quarter ended September came in at just 5.4 per cent year on year, the lowest rate in nearly two years. The Reserve Bank of India in November cut its growth forecast for the 2024-25 financial year from 7.2 per cent to 6.6 per cent. Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles.  India’s finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in December that the drop in economic growth was a “temporary blip”. But many economists believe the slowdown is not just seasonal, pointing to a drop in spending among overleveraged urban and middle-class Indians.”, The Financial Times, December 31, 2024

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Japan

“Sushi restaurateurs fork out $1.3m for motorbike-sized tuna at auction in Tokyo – Onodera Group paid second highest price ever at prestigious annual new year auction at Tokyo’s main fish market. Michelin-starred sushi restaurateurs the Onodera Group said they had paid 207m yen on Sunday for the 276kg (608lbs) bluefin tuna, roughly the size and weight of a motorbike. But the highest ever auction price was 333.6m yen (US$2.l million) for a 278kg bluefin in 2019, as the fish market was moved from its traditional Tsukiji area to a modern facility in nearby Toyosu.”, The Guardian, January 5, 2025

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United Kingdom

“UK economy shrinks for second month in a row – The UK economy shrank for the second month in a row in October as concerns about the Budget continued to weigh on confidence.  Official figures showed a 0.1% drop, despite expectations that the economy would return to growth after a fall in September. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that activity had stalled or declined with pubs, restaurants and retail among sectors reporting ‘weak months’.”, BBC News, December 13, 2024

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“Tax rises ‘to cost businesses £2,000 more’ for each worker – The Centre for Policy Studies says low-paid workers and those re-entering the workforce will cost employers the most. The analysis showed that it would cost an average of £24,806 to employ someone over 21 earning the minimum wage — £2,367 (US$2,939) more than last year. That will partly be driven by the hourly national minimum wage rising from £11.44 to £12.21 (US$15.16) from April.”, The Times of London, January 3, 2025

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United States

“Will 2025 Be the Watershed Year for Return-to-Office Mandates? That Depends. Executives are paying attention as major companies including Amazon.com and Dell Technologies tell certain workers to return to the office full-time. Years after the Covid-19 pandemic normalized remote work, the recent developments have executives wondering which companies will pull staff back to the office next—and who will benefit. Many employers continue to see the benefits of hybrid working schedules, from the ability to attract employees to retaining top talent. But the degree of flexibility at the workplace is shifting.”, The Wall Street Journal, December 26, 2024

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Vietnam

“Vietnam’s economy smashes growth forecasts as trade-obsessed Trump returns to the White House – The Southeast Asian economy grew 7.09% in 2024, according to data released by the country’s General Statistics Office on Monday. That smashed the government’s forecast of 6.5% growth for the year, as well as last year’s growth figure of 5.05%.  Exports, driven by electronics, smartphones, and garments, grew 14.3% in 2024 to reach $405.5 billion, and that helped drive Vietnam’s growth. Vietnam’s government hopes to have an even better 2025, with Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh recently expressing hope that the economy will grow by 8% this year.”, Fortune magazine, January 6, 2025

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Taking Brands Global Successfully For 5 Decades

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Brand & Franchising News

“What’s Ahead for Franchising in 2025? Here are the Key Trends to Watch – With the U.S. election now settled, we have a clearer picture of what to expect for franchise development in 2025. Though nothing is completely certain, the following trends appear likely to play an important factor for franchise development teams in the coming year…..”, Entrepreneur magazine, January 6, 2025. This is an article by Rob Lancit, Stratus Building Solutions

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“Franchise M&A Experts Predict Robust 2025 for Dealmaking – Buyers are looking for new investments and sellers can get a price closer to what they’re hoping for as the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates toward the end of last year. Private equity firms have been showing increased interest in franchisees of strong, proven concepts—and that trend is set to continue, said Joe Philip of First Horizon Bank. There haven’t been many initial public offerings from franchisors in recent years. But there are indications of some IPOs to come.”, Franchise Times, December 26, 2024

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“Fast casuals had a terrific 2024. Except for those that didn’t – Wingstop, Cava and Raising Cane’s beat all odds, and others had a pretty great year, despite road bumps. But for a few, it was pretty rough. Mostly, however, the leading fast-casual players thrived this year, while restaurant chains in the quick-service and casual-dining segments struggled and were forced into aggressive value promotions to compete for inflation-weary customers. For several fast-casual brands, it was a year of menu transformation.”, Restaurant Business, December 18, 2024

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“Starbucks Is Said to Consider Selling Stake in Chinese Unit – US coffee chain speaking to advisers about China growth plans. Company gauging interest from domestic private equity firms. A stake sale could also attract interest from Chinese conglomerates or other local companies with experience in the industry, some of the people said.”, Bloomberg, November 22, 2024

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“Chinese fast food chain LXJ seeks IPO in Hong Kong amid market revival – LXJ operates 1,404 restaurants across 53 mainland cities, serving meals costing about 20 yuan (US$2.73) on average. LXJ International, which operates the largest fast-food chain in mainland China, is seeking a stock listing in Hong Kong to raise funds for expansion, after two unsuccessful attempts to float its shares in Shanghai last year. The chain, known as Lao Xiang Ji or Home Original Chicken, submitted its application to the Hong Kong stock exchange on Friday, without disclosing the size of its offering. The funds will be used to enhance its supply chain, expand its restaurant network and improve technologies, among other purposes.”, South China Morning Post, January 3, 2025. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

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“Franchising Predictions for 2025 – What’s in store for the franchise sector? Franchise thought leaders share their top predictions for 2025…….. …there will be a continued focus on the people in our organizations in 2025. Creating space for them to be authentic with colleagues and focusing on their personal and professional growth will help retain great people, as well as find new ones to join the team. With hiring and retention remaining the top challenge for most business owners, franchisors and suppliers will need to prioritize strategies to support franchise owners in building strong cultures within their organizations.”, Franchise Business Review, December 13, 2024

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“Doner Shack Launches Revolutionary Franchise Opportunity in the U.S. – Primed to capitalize on the global popularity of kebabs, Doner Shack has launched a unique franchise opportunity stateside in an untapped sector primed for explosive growth. It’s a move already fueling Doner Shack’s mission to become the world’s No. 1 kebab brand. The brand, founded in 2018, continues to capture the industry’s attention, generating plenty of buzz at the recent Franchise Expo South. As part of a bold expansion strategy, co-founders Sanjeev Sanghera and Laura Bruce plan to relocate the corporate headquarters from Scotland to Miami, underscoring a bullish commitment to franchisee support and long-term U.S. growth. Doner Shack is already making waves on the global stage, with five company-owned stores, 50 franchise restaurants sold in the United Kingdom, and a flurry of development news. The brand continues to expand its global presence, recently inking a 150-store master franchise agreement in India and hatching plans for 100 stores in the Middle East.”, Franchising.com, January 1, 2025

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“The Epic Mess at TGI Fridays – The chain that spread happy hour and family dining across America has vacated its headquarters and left bills unpaid. One restaurant owner sees a revival plan. The unraveling of a chain that defined happy hour and family dinner out across America is an epic business saga that spans four CEOs, dozens of restaurant closures, bungled refinance attempts and unpaid bills that no Long Island iced tea could cure.  Its U.S. restaurant count has dwindled to less than 200, including 39 locations that are bankrupt. Complex financial plans by private-equity investors to try to stabilize the company backfired when Fridays couldn’t meet certain obligations during the pandemic and beyond. Franchise owners became so frustrated with the lack of communication and direction from company leaders that some stopped paying royalties, franchisees and their advisers said. The chain that once said “in here, it’s always Friday” has seen better days.”, The Wall Street Journal, December 26, 2024

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To receive our biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here – https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing business environment. And our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provide us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries.   We do not get involved in or report on politics!

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William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global.  With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other.  He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.

To receive this biweekly newsletter in your email every other Tuesday, click here –  https://insider.edwardsglobal.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business into new countries and make money doing it. For a complimentary call with Bill Edwards click on the QR code or contact Bill at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com and +1 949 375 1896

www.edwardsglobal.com