EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 79, Tuesday, April 4, 2023
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)
Introduction: In this issue, inflation falling around the world, AI spreading, EV adoption spreading, oil rising again, Middle East IPOs are up, UK house prices are down and post pandemic western food & beverage brands are once again on the rise in China as Chinese consumers are heading back to stores and restaurants.
The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources to update our 1,400+ readers in 20+ countries on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad.
To receive this biweekly newsletter that is read by over 1,400 people in 20 countries, click here:
https://bit.ly/geowizardsignup
First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others
“Take risks. Failure is a stepping stone to success.”, Arianna Huffington, co-founder of The Huffington Post
“If you always do what you’ve always done, you’ll always get what you’ve always got.”, Henry Ford, founder of the Ford Motor Company
“The road to success is always under construction.” , Lily Tomlin, actress and comedian
This issue’s quotes are compliments of Zyro.com
Highlights in issue #79:
- Brand Global News Section: BurgerFi®, Dominos®, Haidilao®, KX Pilates®, Popeyes® and Starbucks® China
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Interesting Data and Studies
“Artificial intelligence has advanced despite having few resources dedicated to its development – now investments have increased substantially. In the past, relatively few researchers were working on AI technology and there was little commercial interest and funding. Now, the available resources have increased substantially. We should expect that the field continues to advance rapidly.”, Our World In Data, March 29, 2023
“The World’s 25 Richest Countries by GDP per Capita – Measuring GDP per capita is a common measure of the economic wealth on a per person basis. This article sorts countries according to the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections on GDP per capita for 2023. Currently this metric is at $13,920 globally in 2023, up from $13,400 in 2022 and $11,160 in 2020, all nominal figures, not accounting for inflation.”, Visual Capitalist, March 29, 2023
“Actions the best CEOs are taking in 2023 – Corporate leaders are addressing the risks while finding the opportunities in digital disruption, the economy, and geopolitical uncertainties. the torrent of trends, ideas, and information that leaders now face makes knowing what matters more difficult than ever…….McKinsey conducted its latest CEO Excellence Survey, to take the pulse of leading CEOs’ evolving priorities and the actions they’re taking in response. We started by asking a group of the world’s top-performing CEOs which trends will have the biggest impact on how they lead their business in 2023 compared with past years. Their answers suggest that three “true signals” matter most: digital disruption, the economy, and geopolitics.” McKinsey, March 15, 2023
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Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation & Trade Issues
“Global inflation tracker – Inflation has started to show signs of easing from the multi-decade highs reached in many countries following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. High inflation remains geographically broad-based, even if it is lower in many parts of Asia.”, The Financial Times, March 31, 2023
“Oil Prices Jump as Saudi-Led Group Plans Output Cuts – Potential U.S. recession and China’s demand will help determine whether crude pushes even higher. Tallying up Sunday’s commitments by Saudi Arabia, Iraq and others, OPEC producers say they will cut daily output by more than 1.1 million barrels from May, according to Natasha Kaneva, head of commodities research at JPMorgan Chase.”, The Wall Street Journal, April 3, 2023
“Electric vehicles are forecast to be half of global car sales by 2035 – EV sales will soar to about 73 million units in 2040, up from around 2 million in 2020, according to forecasts by Goldman Sachs Research. The percentage of EVs in worldwide car sales, meanwhile, is expected to rise to 61% from 2% during that span. The share of EV sales is anticipated to be well over 80% in many developed countries.”, Goldman Sachs, February 10, 2023
“The global rice crisis – Rice feeds more than half the world—but also fuels diabetes and climate change. Asia accounts for 90% of the world’s rice production and almost as much of its consumption. Asians get more than a quarter of their daily calories from rice. The un estimates that the average Asian consumes 77kg of rice a year—more than the average African, European and American combined. Hundreds of millions of Asian farmers depend on growing the crop, many with only tiny patches of land. Yet the world’s rice bowl is cracking.”, The Economist, March 28, 2023
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Global & Regional Travel Updates
“Flights at Cathay Pacific budget carrier HK Express ‘back to pre-pandemic levels by Friday – Airline seeks 500 staff as it ramps up services. Low-cost carrier took delivery of the first of 16 narrow-body Airbus A321neo aircraft on Wednesday… the carrier’s service frequency would return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the month with more than 400 flights per week and 500 by the summer to around 22 destinations. HK Express is looking to expand network and aims to hire 180 pilots and more than 300 cabin crew by the end of the year.”, South China Morning Post, March 29, 2023
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Country & Regional Updates
Argentina
“IMF approves next tranche of emergency loans to Argentina – The $5.4 billion set for disbursement brings the total lent to the Latin American country under the Extended Fund Facility to $28.9 billion. Argentina is the target of the IMF’s largest assistance program. The International Monetary Fund’s executive board approved late on Friday the disbursement of $5.4 billion (approximately €4.97 billion) to Argentina, as part of a $44 billion loan program to the Latin American nation struggling with an ailing economy.”, Deutsche Welle, March 31, 2023
Canada
“Canada’s Population Grows by Over 1 Million for First Time – Annual expansion of 2.7% is fastest among advanced economies. Rush of newcomers strains housing market, health-care system. International migration accounted for 95.9% of the growth — a testament to Canada’s decision to counter the economic drag of an aging populace by throwing its doors open to newcomers.”, Bloomberg, March 27, 2023
China
“China’s Consumers Extend Economic Rebound From Pandemic – A gauge of activity in China’s services sector reached its highest level in more than a decade in March, a sign that Chinese consumers are heading back to stores and restaurants, powering an economic recovery following the end of almost three years of strict Covid-19 controls.”, The Wall Street Journal, Mach 31, 2023
Eurozone & European Union Countries
“Eurozone inflation lower than expected, as energy costs drop – Inflation in the Eurozone slowed sharply to 6.9% in an unexpected turnaround after months of steady increases. The 20 countries that make up the Eurozone recorded slowed inflation rates, although food prices rose with energy prices falling official, European Union’s statistics agency revealed on Friday. -Consumer prices in the Eurozone rose by 6.9% in March, but that represented a decrease from 8.5% in February, the data showed.”, Deutsche Welle, March 31, 2023
India
“From fast food to autos, India’s digitally connected users lure investors – China saw a jump in consumption from 2006 when, as per World Bank data, its per capita gross domestic product (GDP) crossed $2,000. India crossed that threshold in 2021, according to the bank’s latest available data, which could put it on a similar growth trajectory even though weak job growth and income inequalities in the country pose a risk to this outcome.
With the cheapest mobile data rates in the world, thanks to intense competition among telecoms providers, and the explosive growth of social media and personal entertainment, Indian consumers are going digital at a breakneck pace.”, Reuters, April 2, 2023
“India Offers Rupee Trade Option to Nations Facing Dollar Crunch – New Delhi has been pushing to internationalize the rupee Central bank unveiled plans for rupee settlement last year. India will offer its currency as an alternative for trade to countries that are facing a shortage of dollars in the wake of the sharpest tightening in monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve in decades. Facilitating the rupee trade for countries facing currency risk will help “disaster proof” them, Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal said during an announcement on India’s foreign trade policy Friday in New Delhi.”, Bloomberg, March 31, 2023
“India’s Emerging Foreign Policy – India’s economic rise has validated its historical efforts to maintain a diverse set of foreign relations. Russia’s war in Ukraine is both an opportunity and a challenge for New Delhi’s foreign policy approach. While managing pressures from Western governments to help isolate Moscow, the Indians have also been trying to assert themselves on the world stage. The South Asian powerhouse will not content itself with being merely an ally of the West and instead will maintain its policy independence, with implications for the U.S.-Chinese rivalry.”, Geopolitical Futures, March 29, 2023
Indonesia
“Nickel Revolution Has Indonesia Chasing Battery Riches Tinged With Risk – A wave of new supply from the Southeast Asian nation, key for climate goals, is challenging metal markets and a pristine environment. Within two years, Indonesia could supply 65% of the world’s nickel, up from 30% in 2020, Macquarie Group Ltd. estimates. With so much metal outside the London Metal Exchange and the Shanghai exchange, Indonesia threatens to upend even nickel pricing benchmarks.”, Bloomberg, March 28, 2023
Italy
“ChatGPT banned in Italy over privacy, data collection concerns – Calls have grown in the United States to stop development of the AI technology. The Italian Data Protection Authority said it is blocking OpenAI from processing the data from American users, and has opened an investigation into the organization. The order lasts until OpenAI respects the EU’s privacy law, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR).”, Fox Business, March 29, 2023
Japan
“Tokyo Inflation Slows Ahead of BOJ Leadership Change to Ueda – Production, retail sales improve in more positive sign Labor market worsens slightly in challenge for wages outlook. Consumer prices excluding fresh food in the capital rose 3.2% from a year ago, following a sharp deceleration in the previous month that was mainly driven by government subsidies for electricity costs, according to the ministry of internal affairs Friday.”, Bloomberg, March 30, 2023
South Korea
“Five trends that will define South Korean grocery in 2023 – South Korean consumers are increasingly shifting from cooking from scratch to eating out or more conveniently. What does “convenience” mean? According to our 2021 South Korea grocery survey,1 45 percent of consumers prefer prepackaged and partially cooked fresh meals that require some preparation (compared with 34 percent of the world), and 41 percent order prepared foods for delivery (versus 24 percent of the world).”, McKinsey, March 22, 2023
Mexico
“Mexico Sees Inflation Slowing to 4% in 2024 as Economy Grows 3% – Finance Ministry released preliminary budget plan for 2024 The country’s economy expected to grow 3% this year and next. Inflation in Latin America’s second-largest economy is expected to slow to 5% by the close of this year and reach 4% by the end of 2024, from the most recent level of 7.12% in early March.”, Bloomberg, March 31, 2023
Middle East Region
“Middle East on ‘radar’ of global investors as it enjoys IPO boom – Frenzy of activity across the region contrasts sharply with Europe’s moribund market. The 51 IPOs across the Middle East and north Africa last year was a record, according to EY. They raised $22bn, a 179 per cent increase on 2021, the advisory firm said, adding that this year’s market looked “healthy”. Financial regulatory reform, a privatisation push amid political stability and oil and gas prices that have risen significantly from their Covid-19 pandemic lows are driving both the IPO frenzy and private deals, bankers said.”, The Financial Times, March 27, 2023
United Kingdom
“Joining this trade partnership opens up a world of opportunity – The UK’s accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is a significant milestone for UK trade. This landmark deal will help the UK enhance its trading links in the Asia-Pacific region and strengthen its ties with some of the fastest-growing markets in the world. It is a marker of the UK’s strong position on the global stage that we are the first country from outside the Pacific Rim to join this bloc — and our presence will enhance its total value from 13 per cent of global GDP to 15 per cent, making it worth £11 trillion.”, The Times of London, April 1, 2023
“House prices see biggest annual fall since 2009 – House prices fell in March at their fastest annual pace for 14 years, according to the latest figures from the Nationwide. The lender said prices were down 3.1% compared with a year earlier, the largest annual decline since July 2009. The Nationwide said the housing market reached a “turning point” last year, after the financial market turbulence which followed the mini-budget. Since then, “activity has remained subdued”, it added.”, BBC News, March 31, 2023
“Businesses in battle to find skilled staff – Most British businesses are struggling to plug gaps in their workforces amid a shortage of skilled talent. About 80 per cent of companies reported difficulty filling jobs, according to the latest talent shortage survey by ManpowerGroup, the American recruitment giant. That marks the highest percentage since 2006, while the proportion of businesses reporting difficulties with recruitment has jumped from 13 per cent a decade ago.”, The Sunday Times of London, March 27, 2023
United States
“Remote work gains momentum despite return-to-office mandates from high-profile CEOs – In some major US cities, the number of job postings for remote-friendly roles is hitting record levels — and trending up. That’s the latest finding of researchers including Stanford University’s Nicholas Bloom who’ve been gathering data on remote work since the early days of the pandemic. Data from security firm Kastle Systems show that office occupancy in major US cities is only about half of the pre-Covid level.”, Fortune, March 25, 2023
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Brand & Franchising News
“2023 Franchising Economic Outlook Predicts Industry Will Stay Strong – Despite economic uneasiness from ongoing inflation, labor shortages and supply chain problems, the franchise industry remained healthy last year and most sectors are expected to grow steadily in 2023, according to the 2023 Franchising Economic Outlook Report by FRANdata. In 2022, total franchised units grew 2% to a total of 790,492. The report projects that franchisee-owned businesses will increase by 15,000 units, to a total of roughly 805,000 this year. Franchising will grow by about 254,000 jobs, a 3% increase over 2022.”, FranchiseWire, March 22, 2023
“Study Finds 2 Out of 3 Restaurant Franchise Operators Feel Optimistic – Yet another survey has confirmed that restaurant operators are most concerned about inflation as they operate in 2023. But TD Bank’s Restaurant Franchise Finance Group’s new survey also finds people in the restaurant industry optimistic about the future and finding opportunities to invest. The poll surveyed 300 restaurant franchise operators and other finance professionals at the 2022 Restaurant Finance and Development Conference in Las Vegas, Nevada, to identify restaurant franchise finance trends.”, Franchising.com, March 30, 2023
“The Franchise in Spain 2023 Report Shows Post-Pandemic Resilience – The data shows that the turnover (revenue) figure grew by 2.9%, from €26,154 million at the end of 2019 to €26,929 million at year-end 2022. In 2022 franchising in Spain provided jobs for 303,595 people, compared with 294,231 employed in 2019, an increase of 3.18%. The number of networks that make up the country’s franchise system fell slightly, from 1,381 at the end of 2019 to 1,375 at year-end 2022, a decline of 0.5%. The number of open establishments also fell slightly (0.7%), from 77,819 operational premises at the end of 2019 to 77,426 at the end of 2022. Of Spain’s 1,375 franchise networks, 1,137 (82.6% ) are of national origin. The remaining 238 brands (17.4%) come from a total of 24 countries.”, Franchising.com, March 28, 2023
“BurgerFi Predicts Growth Despite Financial Woes And Closures – BurgerFi closed 15 stores in 2022 and 17 in 2021, on top of many other pandemic-related closures in 2020 (via QSR Magazine). As of 2022, the chain has 114 total remaining stores, all located exclusively in the U.S., 11 of which it opened in 2022. The chain cited the previous store closures as the result of staffing shortages, lack of capital, and inadequate operational knowledge. Looking forward, BurgerFi expects to opens 15 to 20 stores in 2023, including airport restaurants…..”, Tasting Table, March 25, 2023
“Chinese top hotpot chain’s overseas unit sees profit this year – The overseas unit of China’s biggest hotpot chain Haidilao expects to return to profit this year, after posting almost 80% year-on-year growth in revenue for 2022 late on Thursday. Originally founded in Sichuan Province of China in 1994, Haidilao now operates more than 1,300 stores across China……Haidilao currently has 114 stores overseas, including a new store opened in Dubai this month, its first venture into the Middle East market.”, Reuters, March 30, 2023
“Domino’s (China) Pizza Franchiser DPC Dash Looks to Tap Hong Kong IPO Market – The pizza chain operator has set a price range of HK$41.4 to HK$55.0 a share. The latest offering is higher than its earlier plan to raise up to HK$567.50 million. The Shanghai-headquartered company began managing Domino’s Pizza outlets in China in 2010, and now operates more than 450 of the restaurants in Beijing, Shanghai and eight other cities across the country.”, The Wall Street Journal, March 15, 2023
“KX Pilates (Australia) eyes global expansion as it celebrates 100 studios – Founded by fitness entrepreneur Aaron Smith, KX Pilates opened its first studio in Melbourne in 2010 and now spans across 100 studios in Australia and the broader Asia Pacific region, including New Zealand, Indonesia, China and Taiwan, and is soon to launch in Singapore. It counts six international studios and 94 Australian-based studios in its franchised network, with Noosa taking the title as the 100th location. In 2023, a further 15 new studios are on the cards, and 2024 is forecasted to be bigger than ever for the global business.”, Smart Company AU, March 14, 2023. Compliments of Jason Gehrke, Franchise Advisory Centre, Brisbane
“Popeyes to Accelerate Growth in China – Roughly $90 million is being poured into growth and development efforts. Tims China, the master franchisee rapidly growing Tim Hortons across mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau, announced Thursday that it will spearhead growth for Popeyes as well. The company purchased PLKC International (Popeyes China), which holds exclusive rights to develop and sub-franchise Popeyes in mainland China and Macau.”, QSR Magazine. March 31, 2023. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
“Starbucks braced for price war in China as rivals pile into coffee market – Chains backed by private equity bet consumers will turn social pastime into daily routine. The US chain plans to open a store in China every nine hours to reach 9,000 locations by 2025, up from just over 6,000 currently. As with many consumer brands in China, Starbucks’s expectations of a big rebound rest on projections for a huge market opportunity, but they are tempered by increased competition from international and domestic rivals and often fickle consumer habits.”, The Financial Times, March 22, 2023
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Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, economic development and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing environment. Our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provides us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries.
William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor – Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global.
With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other. He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant taking 40 franchisors global.
For a complimentary 30 minute consultation on how to take your business global successfully, contact Bill Edwards at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com or +1 949 224 3896.
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EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 78, Tuesday, March 21, 2023
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)
Introduction: This issue’s quotes are all about banking over the past 250 years. Global business travel is almost back to pre-COVID levels. The world’s happiest country survey is out. European economies limp into 2023 but it could have been worse. U.S. inventories fall and small business confidence improves.
The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources to update our 1,400+ readers in 20+ countries on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad.
To receive this biweekly newsletter that is read by over 1,400 people in 20 countries, click here:
https://bit.ly/geowizardsignup
First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others
“If you owe the bank $100 that’s your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that’s the bank’s problem.”, J. Paul Getty, Founder, Getty Oil
“Banking is a very good business if you don’t do anything dumb.”, Warren Buffett,
Chairman and CEO, Berkshire Hathaway
“I sincerely believe that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies.”, Thomas Jefferson
Highlights in issue #78:
- Brand Global News Section: Carl’s Jr®, Chick-Fil-A®, Restauramt Group (UK), Strong Pilates®, Subway®, Sweetgreen®, Wendys®
NOTE: Bolded headlines in this newsletter are live links where the article is available without a paid subscription.
Interesting Data and Studies
“Where Students Choose STEM Degrees – Many countries have tried to bolster enrollment in STEM to aid important growth industries like medtech, digital services, mobility or computer sciences. However, countries have had varying success, as data from UNESCO shows. In general, countries that have managed to produce a higher share of STEM graduates than elsewhere are more likely to be found in the Arab world, in Eastern Europe and also in East Asia. Using the latest available data from 2020 through 2022, Malaysia saw the highest share of STEM graduates in all tertiary education degree recipients at 43.5%.”, Forbes, March 10, 2023
“The World’s Happiest Countries in 2023 – Released today!! Are wealth and prosperity legitimate measures of happiness? How about safety and health outcomes? In the West, we view democracy as a key component to happiness, yet there are countries under authoritarian rule that score high in the Happiness Index. The map above is a global snapshot of life satisfaction around the world. It utilizes the World Happiness Report—an annual survey of how satisfied citizens are worldwide—to map out the world’s happiest and least happy countries. To create the index the map is based on, researchers simply asked people how satisfied they are with their lives. While there may be no perfect measure of happiness around the world, the report is a robust and transparent attempt to understand happiness at the global level.”, Visual Capitalist / World Happiness Report, March 20, 2023
“Are Western companies becoming less global? Operating as a multinational company has always involved difficulties, from co-ordinating across time zones to navigating a patchwork of regulatory regimes. The latest strains on globalised commerce—wrought by geopolitical tensions and rising protectionism—raise tricky questions for the corporate giants of the West that have been among globalisation’s biggest beneficiaries. Since 2010 the foreign sales of listed American and European companies have grown by a meagre 2% per year, down from 8% in the 2000s and 10% in the 1990s. American firms may have a quarter fewer foreign subsidiaries than a decade ago, on average, but the drop was more than offset by the number of them with a presence abroad.”, The Economist, March 16, 2023
Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation & Trade Issues
“Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, February 2023 – Some economic indicators strengthen amid persisting inflation and investor uncertainty; central banks keep to a tightening course. In the United States, positive retail sales totals and outsize jobs growth suggest a stronger business environment in early 2023. In China, the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for manufacturing, a key leading indicator, reached 52.6 in February, the highest reading in more than a decade. The nonmanufacturing PMI for China rose to 56.3 on higher services and construction activity in an economy awakening from the “zero-COVID” closures. In the eurozone, services growth pushed the composite PMI (for manufacturing and services) above the expansion line of 50 with a reading of 50.3 in January; the indicator then advanced to 52.6 in February, the highest mark recorded since May 2022.”, McKinsey, February 2023
“Charted: 30 Years of Central Bank Gold Demand – Did you know that nearly one-fifth of all the gold ever mined is held by central banks? Besides investors and jewelry consumers, central banks are a major source of gold demand. In fact, in 2022, central banks snapped up gold at the fastest pace since 1967. However, the record gold purchases of 2022 are in stark contrast to the 1990s and early 2000s, when central banks were net sellers of gold. The above infographic uses data from the World Gold Council to show 30 years of central bank gold demand, highlighting how official attitudes toward gold have changed in the last 30 years.”, Visual Capitalist, March 15, 2023
Global & Regional Travel Updates
“IATA Reports January Traffic At 84% Of 2019 Level – In its latest air passenger traffic report released yesterday, IATA said that January 2023 traffic increased by 67% compared to January last year. t’s not news that domestic traffic remained strong, with many nations already operating at pre-pandemic levels. The relaxing of travel restrictions in China is now starting to translate into airline passengers, which helped domestic RPKs to rise by 32.7% in January compared to the same month last year.”, Simple Flying, March 9, 2023
“Singapore Snatches Back ‘World’s Best Airport’ Crown From Qatar – Singapore’s Changi has regained its title as the world’s best airport, after losing its long-held crown to Qatar for two years running during the height of pandemic travel restrictions. The Asian hub edged Doha’s Hamad International Airport into second place, with Tokyo’s Haneda Airport bagging third, in the Skytrax World Airport Awards 2023. The US was conspicuous by its absence in the top 10. Paris Charles de Gaulle was Europe’s top performer, up one spot to fifth place, while Seattle-Tacoma International Airport was the highest ranked North American airport, languishing in 18th position — but an improvement from 27th place last year.”, Bloomberg, March 15, 2023
Country & Regional Updates
Argentina
“Argentina’s inflation rate soars past 100%, its worst in over 30 years – Annual rate of 102.5% is denting purchasing power, savings, economic growth and government’s chances in elections next year. In Argentina’s markets, shops and homes, the impact of rising prices is being felt keenly as one of the highest inflation rates in the world stretches people’s wallets. With inflation so high, prices change almost weekly.”, The Guardian, March 15, 2023
China
“Economy Rebounds but Further Acceleration Needed – The National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) release of February’s data gives us our first glimpse of how quickly the economy might rebound in 2023. Last year, GDP only grew by 3 percent, as the authorities implemented policies to stop the spread of the pandemic. This year, the government is targeting growth of around 5 percent. The increase in industrial value added was disappointing. It had risen by 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 and by 3.8 percent last year. However, the growth in service production was encouraging given that it had fallen by 0.1 percent last year and by 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter.”, Yicai Global, March 17, 2023
“China to Resume Issuing Range of Visas to Foreigners – China will resume issuing various types of visas to tourists and other foreign travelers from Wednesday, as the country lifts some of the last Covid restrictions that have hampered cross-border travel for the past three years. According to the Chinese foreign ministry, the move includes allowing foreigners with visas issued before March 28, 2020, which are still valid, to enter China.”, Caixin Global, March 14, 2023
Eurozone & European Union Countries
“European Economies Limp into 2023. It could have been worse – The European Union’s economy shrank slightly in the final quarter of 2022. It could have been worse. Most countries tolerated the sharp rise in energy prices without a major hit to growth. Employment also climbed slightly in both the eurozone and the EU. It remains to be seen how well Europe will withstand monetary tightening, the war, and warning signs in the banking sector, among other things, in 2023.”, Geopolitical Futures, March 17, 2023
India
“Air India Confident on Funding for World’s Biggest Aircraft Deal – Indian carrier placed order for 470 jets from Boeing. Air India Ltd. is in talks with banks to help fund its recently announced record aircraft order, benefitting from the support of new owner Tata Sons Ltd., the carrier’s chief executive officer said. ‘We have the backing of Tata Sons, so there is financing available for these aircraft,’ CEO Campbell Wilson said in an interview with Bloomberg News on the sidelines of the CAPA India Aviation Summit in New Delhi on Monday.”, Bloomberg, March 20, 2023
Indonesia
“Indonesia sets aside $455 million to subsidise electric motorcycle sales – Indonesia will allocate 7 trillion rupiah ($455.88 million) in state funds to subsidise electric motorcycle sales through 2024, officials said on Monday, as it pushes mass adoption of EVs with the aim of attracting investment in the domestic industry. The government will also announce incentives for electric cars on April 1, said senior cabinet minister Luhut Pandjaitan said. Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said the subsidies will cover sales of 800,000 new electric motorcycles and the conversion of 200,000 combustion engine motorcycles.”, Reuters, March 20, 2023
Japan
“Japan/eggs: mayonnaise crisis highlights food price pressures – Bird flu has led to shortages of household staple, hitting manufacturers, retailers and consumers. Japan has culled about 15mn birds, as it deals with its worst-ever outbreak of bird flu. As a result, wholesale prices of eggs in February almost doubled. The shortages are widely felt. Convenience stores including 7-Eleven have suspended the sale of some egg-related products. Ingredient prices for food companies are rising across the board. The biggest problem is with mayonnaise. Egg yolks are a key ingredient of this staple Japanese condiment. Manufacturers including the largest, Kewpie and Ajinomoto, will raise prices by up to 21 per cent from April.”, The Financial Times, March 10, 2023
New Zealand
“How franchisors supported franchisees after Gabrielle – The Anniversary Day floods and Cyclone Gabrielle turned summer from a happy and relaxed time into a period of danger, despair and stress for many people, small business owners included. One touching story came from The Coffee Club, which had a new franchisee in Napier hit by the floods just 11 days after opening. The new café was closed for 8 days, then had to start all over again. The franchisor flew two staff down to help, and also encouraged suppliers to donate free product to help the franchisees get back on their feet. The franchisee said, ‘No, there are people worse off than us,’ and made up 150 lunch bags using the donated product to give to the volunteers helping the worst affected.”, Franchise New Zealand magazine, March 20, 2023. Compliments of Simon Lord, Publisher
United Kingdom
“UK economy returns to growth in January – Month-on-month gross domestic product rose 0.3 per cent during the month, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). City economists had forecast a 0.1 per cent rise. In the three months to January, however, growth was flat and the economy remains 0.2 per cent below its pre-pandemic size, adding pressure on Jeremy Hunt to spur growth in next week’s budget. It also adds to the challenge facing the chancellor to meet his target to get government debt falling as a share of GDP. The country is the only one among its G7 peers that has not yet recovered its pre-pandemic size.”, The Times Of London, March 10, 2023
“Doctors Are Quitting Britain’s NHS for a Career in Business – Newly-qualified medics are switching to management consultancy. Unions blame poor pay and conditions in the health system. A poll published by the British Medical Association at the end of last year found that 2-in-5 junior doctors plan to leave the NHS once they’re offered another job, while 79% “often think about leaving the NHS.” Pay, deteriorating conditions and increasing workloads were the main gripes, according to the survey. Of those actively planning a new career, the most popular option was management consulting, with the pharmaceutical sector also a key destination.”, Bloomberg, March 13, 2023
United States
“U.S. business inventories fall for first time in nearly two years – Business inventories dropped 0.1%, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. That was the first decline and also the weakest reading since April 2021 and followed a 0.3% gain in December. Economists polled by Reuters had expected inventories, a key component of gross domestic product, would be unchanged. Inventories increased 11.1% on a year-on-year basis in January.”, Reuters, March 15, 2023
“U.S. small business confidence improves further in February – The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said its Small Business Optimism Index increased 0.6 point to 90.9 last month. Still, it was the 14th straight month that the index was below the 49-year average of 98. Forty-seven percent of owners reported job openings that were hard to fill, up 2 points from January, with workers scarce for both skilled and unskilled positions.”, Reuters, March 15, 2023
“How inflation has upped the price of your Big Mac: State-by-state breakdown reveals the staggering difference in cost for a McDonald’s. A Big Mac in Hawaii will set you back $5.31, which is the most expensive in America, according to data sourced by CashNetUSA. The same burger in Mississippi is available for just $3.91 and priced at $3.95 in Arkansas and $3.99 in Missouri, South Dakota and Alabama. The average cost of a Big Mac in the US is $4.40 which is among the cheapest in 76 countries.”, The Daily Mail, March 19, 2023
Brand & Franchising News
“2023 State of the (U.S.) Restaurant Industry – A new normal takes hold. Many restaurant owners have a growth mindset for 2023. Nearly 3 in 4 operators say business conditions are already close to normal—a new, more positive normal—or are well on the path, and the focus is on sustaining growth in the coming year. While the headwinds of 2022 will carry over into 2023, consumers’ desire for the restaurant experience is as strong as ever and will play a critical role in the industry’s recovery.”, National Restaurant Association, February 28, 2023
“US burger giant Carl’s Jr. instructs Christie & Co to find franchise partners for UK debut – In 2021, BigHospitality revealed that the 1,000 plus strong brand was looking to enter the UK market for first time following its success in mainland Europe. Carl’s Jr. initially looked to find a master franchisee, but it is now looking to partner with multiple ‘ambitious’ hospitality entrepreneurs/investment groups who can open at least 20 restaurants in their respective region, in the next few years, ideally with extensive restaurant experience and the financial capability.”, Bighospitality UK, March 15, 2023
“Chick-Fil-A Is Investing $1 Billion In International Markets – Chick-fil-A is booming in the United States. QSR reported that the famed maker of chicken sandwiches was the third-biggest fast food restaurant in America by sales as of 2021. Chick-fil-A’s sales are particularly striking when you consider that the chain has under 3,000 locations in the US. As CEO Andrew Cathy recently told The Wall Street Journal, the company plans to spend $1 billion to establish a presence abroad in the coming years. Chick-fil-A’s previous attempts to expand internationally have largely fallen flat.”, The Tasting Table, March 19, 2023
“Restaurant Group (UK) to close 35 underperforming outlets – The operator of the Wagamama and Frankie & Benny’s restaurant chains has announced plans to exit from about 35 uneconomic restaurants in its leisure division as it seeks to whittle down its least successful businesses. The Restaurant Group (TRG) announced the move alongside a three-year plan to reduce debt and improve margins in what was widely regarded as a riposte aimed at Oasis Management Company, an activist investor with a 6.5 per cent stake.”, The Times of London, March 8, 2023
“STRONG Pilates secures Singapore as it looks to Canada, the US – Only four months after announcing plans to enter the UK market, fitness brand STRONG Pilates has added another region to its global footprint as it looks to roll out 11 locations across Singapore over the next three years. The foray into Singapore is part of the Melbourne-based company’s bullish ambitions to launch into three new global markets this year, with plans for the remaining two – Canada and the US – currently in the works.”, Business News Australia, March 20, 2023
“Your Sweetgreen Salads May Soon Be Delivered By Flying Robots – Only 16 years after the first restaurant premiered in Washington D.C. …. Sweetgreen has become a nationwide chain, and a growing one at that. In fact, according to QSR, the restaurant chain, who reached 150 locations in 2021, announced in 2022 that it had set its sights on reaching 1,000 by 2030. This week, Zipline announced in a press release that it was collaborating with Sweetgreen and healthcare companies on a new delivery method that will bring food and prescription medicines to people’s homes in a faster and more convenient fashion — and in a more sustainable manner.”, Tasting Table, March 17, 2023
“Advent International joins list of suitors for sandwich chain Subway – Buyout firm Advent International is among a list of firms that remain in contention to buy sandwich chain Subway, Sky News reported on Monday. The firm joins rival bidders including Goldman Sachs’ asset management arm, Bain Capital, TDR Capital – the joint owner of Asda – and TPG, according to the report. Advent had previously invested in entertainment retailer HMV and currently has investments in companies such as Laird International and McAfee Corp, among others.”, Reuters, March 13, 2023
“US fast food chain Wendy’s to launch ‘hundreds’ of restaurants in Australia – Speaking exclusively to the Australian Financial Review, Wendy’s chief development officer Abigail Pringle said she was convinced there was an appetite for the chain’s signature burgers, fries and frosty desserts Down Under. ‘We believe Australia is a lucrative market for long-term growth,’ Ms Pringle told the publication.”, News.com.au, February 27, 2023. Compliments of Jason Gehrke, Franchise Advisory Centre, Brisbane
“9 Iconic (U.S.) Restaurant Chains That Are Struggling – Your favorite restaurants of the past are closing one by one. These iconic restaurant chains, among others, are struggling to regain customers against an avalanche of difficulties. The stalwart legacy restaurants of the past are in worse shape than ever before thanks to long-term financial woes, changing customer tastes, and low post-pandemic recovery efforts. Soon, some of the classic restaurants you grew up on could be a thing of the past. So if you want to relive the glory days of fast-casual dining (or grab a low-cost deli sandwich), grab a high-top table before it’s too late.”, Eat This, Not That!, March 17, 2023
To receive this biweekly newsletter, click here : https://bit.ly/geowizardsignup
Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, economic development and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing environment. Our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provides us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries.
Over 4 decades William (Bill) Edwards has steered more than 40 brands successfully through the complexities of Going Global. Problem-solver, strategist, visionary and trusted Global Advisor, Bill Edwards sees what others don’t. Now he’s sharing this unmatched experience and wisdom with select senior executives traversing the complex international growth landscape.
For a complimentary 30 minute consultation on how to take your business global successfully, contact Bill Edwards at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com or +1 949 224 3896.
Download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business at this link:
Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking
EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 77, Tuesday, March 7, 2023
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)
Introduction: Prices – both up and down – once again highlight our biweekly global business update newsletter. From what a Starbuck’s coffee costs around the world to higher hotel rates due to recovering travel to dropping shipping container costs to a 34% salary increase for Delta Airlines pilots. Interesting AI analyses. And the strange McDonald’s® menu items to be found around the world.
The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources to update our 1,400+ readers in 20+ countries on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad.
To receive this biweekly newsletter that is read by over 1,400 people in 20 countries, click here:
https://bit.ly/geowizardsignup
First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others
“The difference between the possible and the impossible lies in a person’s determination.”, Tommy Lasorda
“When you’re good at something you’ll tell everyone. When you’re great at something, they’ll tell you.”, Walter Payton
“There is only one way to succeed in anything….and that is to give it everything.”, Vince Lombardi
Highlights in issue #77:
- Brand Global News Section: Appleby’s®, Chili’s®, F45®, Gelatissimo®, McDonalds® and Starbucks®
NOTE: Bolded headlines in this newsletter are live links where the article is available without a paid subscription.
Interesting Data and Studies
“The Price of Starbucks Coffee, by Country – In 1971, three former students from the University of San Francisco set up the first Starbucks at Seattle’s Pike Place Market, selling fresh roasted coffee beans, teas, and spices from around the world. This was a relatively humble beginning for what is now the largest coffeehouse chain in the world. Today, Starbucks boasts 32,000 stores across 80 countries, second only to McDonald’s in the fast-food chain business. And like McDonald’s, the price of a coffee at Starbucks varies wildly depending on the country you’re in. This map made by SavingSpot has the answer to which country has the most and least expensive Starbucks coffee…”, Visual Capitalist / SavingSpot, February 24, 2023
“Black swans, gray rhinos, and silver linings: Anticipating geopolitical risks (and openings) – The global order still reels from disruptions related to the war in Ukraine, including those in energy, food security, supply chains, and more. A central concern among global CEOs who speak with us is whether and how they will contend with additional geopolitical ruptures when they occur. The imperative to lift one’s gaze and look around the corner has become key to strategy and performance—scenario planning is squarely back.”, McKinsey & Co., February 24, 2023
“The Rise of ChatGPT and the Future of White-Collar Jobs – Since its release on Nov. 30, 2022, an artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot called ChatGPT has taken the world by storm with its ability to provide in-depth answers to a variety of questions and seemingly hold meaningful conversations. The seeming leaps and bounds that ChatGPT represents in the field of AI are refueling age-old fears about the impact of new technologies on the job market, fears that date back perhaps most memorably to the early 19th-century Luddite movement.”, RANE Stratfor Worldview, March 2, 2023
“KPMG Global Study Confirms Trusting AI Remains A Major Employee Confidence Gap – Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly used to invent new products and services, enhance productivity, improve decision making and reduce costs, including automating administrative tasks and improving cyber security. However, integrating AI into the everyday workplace still creates challenges, especially without a clear policy and communication process to ensure employees trust the technology methods, approaches, and societal reasons for deploying the new practices and solutions. AI poses unique challenges in employee minds, including the big question – Can they trust the technology?”, Forbes, February 25, 2023
Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation & Trade Issues
“How a Global Shortage Turned Into a Shipping Container Glut – Facing slack demand, low order volumes and rising materials costs, China’s globally dominant container-manufacturing industry is slashing output. Less than two years ago, authorities exhorted companies to dramatically increase production in response to logistics disruptions caused by the pandemic. The Taicang factory in eastern China’s Jiangsu province has cut more than 80% of its capacity and stopped hiring. Chinese factories build more than 96% of the world’s dry cargo containers and 100% of the world’s refrigerated containers, according to U.K. maritime consultancy Drewry.”, Caixin Global, March 2, 2023
“Supply Chains Aren’t Fixed, But They’re Getting There – Problems remain, but complaints of missing parts, delivery delays and gluts of half-finished products are becoming rarer. While companies that produce memory chips used in phones and PCs are cutting production as they grapple with a historic plunge in demand, manufacturers continue to struggle to get enough of the microprocessors that enable the injection of software into a wide range of industrial products….But complaints of missing parts, delivery delays and gluts of half-finished products are becoming rarer. Overall, running an assembly line feels less and less like a random game of whack-a-mole.”, Bloomberg, February 24, 2023
“Consumer Price Inflation, by Type of Good or Service (2000-2022) – The Consumer Price Index (CPI) provides a steady indication of how inflation is affecting the economy. This big picture number is useful for policymakers and professionals in the financial sector, but most people experience inflation at the cash register or checkout screen. Since the start of the 21st century, U.S. consumers have seen a divergence of price movements across various categories. Nowhere is this better illustrated than on this chart concept thought up by AEI’s Mark J. Perry. It’s sometimes referred to as the “chart of the century” because it provides such a clear and impactful jump-off point to discuss a number of economic forces.: Visual Capitalist, February 22, 2023
“Global economy: will higher wages prolong inflation? Price growth remains stubbornly high and central bankers worry that pay settlements will keep it that way. Whether the world’s workers can press home their demands for better pay is the single biggest question facing central bankers around the world this year as they fight to curb the rates at which prices are rising. ‘Even after energy and pandemic factors fade . . . wage inflation will be a primary driver of price inflation over the next several years,’ Philip Lane, chief economist at the European Central Bank, warned in November.”, The Financial Times, February 28, 2023
Global & Regional Travel Updates
“Travel demand fuels a boom in Asia Pacific — in hotel rates. Finding a great hotel deal may be harder than ever before. Finding a great hotel deal may be harder than ever before. Hotel rates are at an “all-time high,” Alan Watts, Hilton’s Asia-Pacific president, told “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday. Rates are being fueled by travel demand that is like “a feast … to offset the famine,” he said, referencing the pandemic. According to earnings reports, Hilton’s average daily rates increased by 8% in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared with the same period in 2019. Similarly, Marriott and IHG hiked prices by 13%, while Hyatt had a 14% daily rate increase.”, CNBC, March 5, 2023
“Delta Pilots Ratify Contract With Massive 34% Salary Hike – Roughly 78% of Delta’s 15,000 pilots, represented by the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA), voted to ratify the new contract, which includes over $7 billion in cumulative increases through December 2026. Delta’s pilots get an immediate raise of at least 18%, with another 5% after one year, 4% after two years and 4% after three years, according to a contract seen by Forbes.”, Forbes, March 1, 2023
“Qantas to Hire 8,500 Workers Over Decade to Reverse Covid Cuts – Roles include pilots, engineers and cabin crew, airline says Expansion underscores aviation’s post-Covid growth trajectory. With potentially more than 300 new aircraft arriving in the next 10 years, Qantas also plans to open an engineering academy to help maintain the fleet, it said Friday.”, Bloomberg, March 2, 2023
Country & Regional Updates
Australia
“Australia’s economy grows 0.5% in December quarter powered by household and government spending – The country’s GDP grew by 2.7% through the year, marking the fifth consecutive quarterly rise in GDP. Consumer spending and government expenditure were the driving forces behind the 0.4% increase in overall consumption, with the retail, hospitality and transportation industries seeing the most significant gains. Meanwhile, the export sector experienced 1.1% growth, mainly thanks to a surge in demand for travel services and the continued interest from foreign markets in Australia’s coal and mineral ores.”, Proactive, March 2, 2023
Canada
“Bank of Canada expected to hold rates steady in face of conflicting economic signals – After eight consecutive rate increases, central bank officials believe they’ve done enough to get inflation back under control. The pace of consumer price growth remains well above the bank’s target. But there are increasing, if conflicted, signs that higher borrowing costs are having their intended effect: slowing the economy and weighing on price growth. In January, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem announced a “conditional pause” to further rate hikes, teeing up the March 8 rate decision as a turning point for monetary policy.”, The Globe & Mail, March 5, 2023
China
“Here’s how much economists expect China s GDP to grow this year – The Chinese government is widely expected to announce on Sunday a GDP growth target of around or above 5% for the year. The average estimate among economists is slightly higher, at 5.21%, according to CNBC analysis. China’s latest factory data marked the highest reading in nearly eleven years, indicating further recovery ahead.”, CNBC, March 1, 2023. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
“Private Sector’s Shrinking Share of China’s Top Stocks – The share of private enterprises in the total market capitalization of China’s top 100 listed firms has suffered an unbroken decline since peaking in mid-2021, according to new research by U.S. think tank the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE). As of the end of 2022, companies less than 10% state-owned comprised 42.8% of the total market cap of China’s top 100 listed firms, down 1.7 percentage points in six months, data compiled by PIIE researchers Tianlei Huang and Nicolas Véron show.”, Caixin Global, February 22, 2023
Egypt
“Dollar Woes, Inflation Batter Egyptian Firms’ Hopes for 2023 – Activity in Egypt’s non-oil economy contracted for a 27th month, with businesses seeing little prospect that high inflation and foreign-currency shortages will ease this year, a survey showed. The Purchasing Managers’ Index compiled by S&P Global, which measures the performance of the private sector, rose to 46.9 in February from 45.5 the month before, yet remained well below the 50 mark that separates growth from decline.”, Bloomberg, March 5, 2023
Eurozone & European Union Countries
“Europe’s Top Economies Lag Behind on Pandemic Export Rebound – Cross-border trade in all European Union countries is now above pre-pandemic levels. Yet a closer look reveals that Germany’s exports in 2022 were only 18% above those in 2019 and France trailed even more with a mere 15%. That compares with a euro-area average of 30%. Within the 20-member currency bloc, Slovenia, Latvia and Greece lead the export recovery, all showing increases higher than 60% versus the pre-pandemic period.”, Bloomberg, February 23, 2023
Indonesia
“Pay attention to Indonesia. It will help determine the future of Asia – It’s hard to think of another country as big and important as Indonesia that is so completely ignored by the American public. With a population of 274 million, it is the fourth-largest country in the world, the third-most populous democracy, and the most populous Muslim-majority country. It is the world’s largest producer of nickel and could become the second-largest producer of cobalt. It dominates one of the world’s most strategically important waterways — the Straits of Malacca, linking the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Most of China’s energy supplies pass through the Straits.”, Washington Post, February 20, 2023
“Nickel Shows Indonesia How to Escape the Middle Income Trap – The success of its strategy to boost investment in smelting has encouraged the government to expand the idea to other industries. The goal is to double per-capita GDP to $10,000 by 2045, which would bring Indonesia close to the World Bank’s high-income threshold. At the same time, the shift would create new centers of growth outside Java, its richest and most populated island.”, Bloomberg, February 24, 2023
Peru
“Country Announces Public-Private Partnerships to Boost Economic Activity – The Peruvian minister of production announced the launch of more than 30 public-private partnerships, collectively worth more than $9 billion, in a bid to boost the economy….The projects are in a variety of sectors including road maintenance, energy and sanitation. The first two months of 2023 saw economically disruptive protests as Peruvians demanded early elections and the release of former left-wing President Pedro Castillo, who was impeached and detained on Dec. 7, 2022, following a coup attempt. Peru was the fastest growing economy in South America over the past decade, with an annual average of 5.9% gross domestic product growth.”, RANE Stratfor Worldview, March 1, 2023
Russia
“Over 1,000 Companies Have Curtailed Operations in Russia—But Some Remain – Since the invasion of Ukraine began, we have been tracking the responses of well over 1,200 companies, and counting. Originally a simple “withdraw” vs. “remain” list, our list of companies now consists of five categories—graded on a school-style letter grade scale of A-F for the completeness of withdrawal. The list below is updated continuously by Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and his team of experts, research fellows, and students at the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute to reflect new announcements from companies in as close to real time as possible.”, Yale School of Management, March 2, 2023
Spain
“Spain’s February jobless rises 0.1% from January to 2.91 million – The number of people registering as jobless in Spain rose by 0.1% in February from a month earlier, or by 2,618 people, leaving a total of 2.91 million people out of work, data from the Labour Ministry showed on Thursday. The number of unemployed people was the lowest registered in a month of February since 2008, the ministry said, adding that the data reflected ‘a trend of stability in the labour market’. Meanwhile, consumer prices in Spain rose 6.1% year-on-year in February – a faster pace than the 5.9% during the 12 months to January – preliminary data from the National Statistics Institute (INE) showed on Tuesday.”, Reuters, March 2, 2023
Thailand
“Thai economy seen growing 3% to 4% this year, inflation to fall – Thailand’s economy is seen growing between 3%-4% this year as it follows a sustained recovery path despite a global slowdown, with tourism and private consumption key drivers, the central bank said on Tuesday. Headline inflation, above target at 5.02% in January, should return to within the targeted 1%-3% in the second half of 2023, the Bank of Thailand said, citing a speech on Monday by its governor, Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput.”, Reuters, February 28, 2023
United Kingdom
“World’s Largest Four-Day Work Week Trial Finds Few Are Going Back – And about one in six employees in the study said no amount of money would convince them to return to five days a week. The study involved 61 organizations and about 2,900 workers who voluntarily adopted truncated work weeks from June to December 2022. Only three organizations decided to pause the experiment, and two are still considering shorter hours, data released Tuesday showed. The rest were convinced by revenue gains, drops in turnover and lower levels of worker burnout that four is the new five when it comes to work days.”, Bloomberg, February 20, 2023
“HSBC to halve space for head office – HSBC told staff that it may yet remain at its tower in Canary Wharf, with renovations. HSBC moved into the tower, owned by Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund, in 2002. Its lease expires in early 2027. HSBC’s mooted departure from Canary Wharf echoes law firm Clifford Chance, which is ditching 700,000 sq ft of space in a Canary Wharf tower for a City office less than half the size. The enduring popularity of remote working is forcing Canary Wharf Group, the site’s owner, to offset the fall in office workers by attracting more families and tourists. Chief executive Shobi Khan is seeking to diversify away from banks and law firms, by building lab space to attract companies in life sciences.”, The Times of London, February 21, 2023
United States
“Brisk Sales Are Powering Restaurant Stocks – High inflation hasn’t prevented chains from thriving. The restaurant industry usually fares well when labor and food costs rise gradually, and attracting customers with lower prices becomes easier. Even though inflation has remained stubbornly high of late, that hasn’t prevented restaurant companies—and their stocks—from thriving. Shares of restaurant chains have been among this year’s stronger performers, after lagging behind in early 2022. Restaurants haven’t been immune to rising labor and food costs, but prices at grocery stores have actually risen more quickly than on restaurant menus over the past year, driving more traffic to restaurants.”, The Wall Street Journal, March 1, 2023
“Bars, Hotels and Restaurants Become the Economy’s Fastest-Growing Employers – Hospitality companies revive their hiring after pandemic cuts, offsetting slower growth in tech jobs. The leisure-and-hospitality industry is rebuilding its workforce after cutting back during the pandemic’s early days. In contrast, companies focused on providing business and tech-related services have slowed their growth in recent months. Because the hospitality industry includes a larger number of private-sector jobs than the tech and information sectors, the shift in hiring patterns has helped keep the U.S. unemployment rate at a 53-year low and the overall job market tight.”, The Wall Street Journal, March 5, 2023
Brand & Franchising News
“Applebee’s Is Closing Even More Locations Nationwide – Applebee’s parent company Dine Brands anticipates that the chain will have between 10 and 20 fewer restaurants in its roster when 2023 comes to a close, Restaurant Business Magazine reported. This would be an even larger decrease in store count for Applebee’s than in 2022, when it ended the year with nine fewer stores after closing 13 and opening four new locations.”, Eat This, Not That!, March 3, 2023
“How Chili’s Is Prepping for Tough Times, Starting With the Fries – Rising costs and a shortage of workers are pushing the Southwest-style restaurant chain to do more with less. When Kevin Hochman became CEO last June of the company that owns Chili’s Bar & Grill, amid a labor shortage and escalating costs, he started looking for bottlenecks in the kitchen. When he started the new job last year, inflation was spiking, and the economy was blinking early warnings of a slowdown. In the months since, he has trimmed menu offerings, raised prices and streamlined kitchen procedures.”, The Wall Street Journal, March 4, 2023
“Take a Crack at These Breakfast Franchise Opportunities – Breakfast is a multibillion-dollar opportunity for entrepreneurs. Gen-Zers – adults born between 1993 and 2003 – consistently buy breakfast through third-party delivery services. In fact, two-thirds of Gen-Zers buy breakfast outside the home at least once a week, according to food manufacturer J.M. Smucker Co. But is owning a breakfast franchise a wise investment? If the success of American icons like Denny’s and IHOP are any indication, breakfast franchises are a hit in any community. Here are 13 breakfast franchise opportunities to consider in 2023.”, FranchiseWire, February 27, 2023
“Multiple F45 Training gyms collapse, equipment up for sale on Facebook Marketplace – A popular Aussie gym franchise has suffered an epic fall from grace with staff laid off, mass resignations from board members and its share price staying stubbornly low. And now it’s emerged that a number of stores have gone into liquidation in the past several months while gym equipment is being sold incredibly cheaply online in a sign of the business struggling to stay afloat. F45 Training – which known for its functional high intensity interval training (HIIT) classes that takes place in 45 minutes – was at first an Australian success story after hitting the New York Stock Exchange in 2021 and raking in $500 million on the first day.”, News.com.au, February 22. 2023. Compliments of Jason Gerhrke, Managing Director, Franchise Advisory Centre, Brisbane
“Gelatissimo opens stores in Thailand, Singapore, Hawaii – Australian gelato chain Gelatissimo has opened five new stores – including in Thailand and Singapore – taking its international store network to 70. One store has opened in Sunny Laguna in Phuket, Thailand, another in Hawaii’s Royal Hawaiian Center at Waikiki and a third at Jewel Changi Airport in Singapore. In Australia, the company opened stores in Rhodes, NSW, and Highpoint, Victoria.”, Inside Retail, February 22, 2023
“Strange McDonald’s menu items around the world – The fast-food place has created menu items that fall in line with a foreign country’s culture. McDonald’s doesn’t operate like a regular fast-food corporation. With over 38,000 locations in over 100 countries, the chain prides itself on two things — uniformity and cultural awareness. The latter is evident in its menus in other countries, whether it’s replacing the famous Big Mac with a pork burger in Thailand or offering a larger variety of vegetarian options in India. Here is a look at unique menu items specific to other countries.”, Deseret News, February 18, 2023
“Starbuck’s China: Big opportunities inject shot of caffeine into smaller cities – Popular chains bank on lower costs, ties with customers for rapid expansion. Starbucks entered the Chinese market 24 years ago and, beginning in January, consumers in the downtown area of Suihua, Heilongjiang province, can also enjoy Starbucks beverages as the coffee chain has opened its first store in the smaller city. The move into lower-tier Chinese cities signals the rapid expansion from top on-premise coffee chain players to grab more consumers at better costs, said an industry expert.}, China Daily, February 21, 2023. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
To receive this biweekly newsletter, click here : https://bit.ly/geowizardsignup
Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are
Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, economic development and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing environment. Our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provides us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries.
To sign up for our biweekly newsletter click here: https://bit.ly/geowizardsignup
Over 4 decades William (Bill) Edwards has steered more than 40 brands successfully through the complexities of Going Global. Problem-solver, strategist, visionary and trusted Global Advisor, Bill Edwards sees what others don’t. Now he’s sharing this unmatched experience and wisdom with select senior executives traversing the complex international growth landscape.
For a free 30 minute consultation on how to take your business global successfully, contact Bill Edwards at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com or +1 949 224 3896.
Download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business at this link:
Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking
EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 76, Tuesday, February 21, 2023
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)
Introduction: This issue is eclectic! From falling inflation to employee ‘hoarding’ to phasing out gasoline cars (not really!) to air travel passing 2019 numbers to global gold demand soaring in 2022. Plus China’s falling inboard investment, Europe’s sources of electricity to Indonesia and India shining.
The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources to update our 1,400+ readers in 20+ countries on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad.
To receive this biweekly newsletter that is read by over 1,400 people in 20 countries, click here:
https://bit.ly/geowizardsignup
First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others
“There are no such things as limits to growth, because there are no limits on the human capacity for intelligence, imagination, and wonder.”, U.S. President Ronald Reagan
“The only place where success comes before work is in the dictionary.”, Vidal Sassoon
“Many of life’s failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up.”, Thomas Edison
Highlights in issue #76:
- Brand Global News Section: Boost Juice®, Denny’s®, Dominos®, Taco Bell®, Texas Roadhouse®, Tim Horton’s, YUM® China
NOTE: Bolded headlines in this newsletter are live links where the article is available without a paid subscription.
Interesting Data and Studies
“Which Countries Have the Lowest Inflation? As price pressures rattle global markets, the above infographic maps inflation rates globally using data from Trading Economics, focusing in on the countries with the lowest inflation levels. Many of the lowest inflation rates around the world are located in Asia, including Macau, China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. In this region, widespread lockdowns strained growth and consumer spending, lessening inflationary pressures. Last year, Chinese consumers saved $2.2 trillion in bank deposits during these restrictions which were lifted earlier this year.”, Visual Capitalist / Trading Economics, February 16, 2023
“The return to the office could be the real reason for the slump in productivity. Here’s the data to prove it. U.S. productivity jumped in the second quarter of 2020 as offices closed, and stayed at a heightened level through 2021. Then, when companies started mandating a return to the office in early 2022, productivity dropped sharply in Q1 and Q2 of that year. Productivity recovered slightly in Q3 and Q4 as the productivity loss associated with the return to office mandate was absorbed by companies–but it never got back to the period when remote-capable employees worked from home.”, Fortune, February 16, 2023
Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation & Trade Issues
Data explorer: consumer price inflation – Annual % change in consumer price index
“Global inflation tracker – Inflation has started to show signs of easing from the multi-decade highs reached in many countries following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The latest figures for most of the world’s largest economies still make for worrying reading, with price pressures remaining high as the war in Ukraine continues to keep energy and food prices elevated. But in some countries pressures have eased and energy and food wholesale prices have declined. Economist and investors also expect inflationary levels to stabilise in the next few years. The Financial Times, February 15, 2023
“European natural gas prices fall to 18-month low as energy crisis ebbs – Mild weather boosts confidence that Europe will avoid shortages this winter and next. The benchmark gas price on Friday fell below €50 per megawatt hour for the first time in almost 18 months, down to €48.90/MWh, as traders report growing confidence that European countries will avoid shortages this winter and next. The gas benchmark peaked at more than €300/MWh in August 2022.”, The Financial Times, February 17, 2023
“Global Gold Demand Soars in 2022 Amid Search for Safe Havens – Global gold demand surged to an 11-year high in 2022, lifted by record buying by central banks and vigorous retail investment, sparked largely by a search for safe-haven assets during a year plagued by geopolitical shocks and rampant inflation. Annual demand for bullion — excluding over-the-counter trading — soared 18% year-on-year to 4,741 tons last year, hitting its highest level since 2011, according to a World Gold Council (WGC) report published Jan. 31.”, Caixin Global, February 9, 2023
“Combustion Going Bust: Global Phase-Outs Of Gasoline Cars – When the European Union on Tuesday approved a law that will ban the sale of combustion engine cars in its member states from 2035, a whole list of countries received a deadline for how long new gasoline car will still be available from dealerships. California was the first state back in August to set a phase-out date for new combustion engine car sales, also for 2035. While there are 17 states that have tied their vehicle standards to California’s under the Federal Clean Air Act, several of them now want out as a full phase-out date has been set.”, Forbes, February 16, 2023
“The world won’t decarbonise fast enough unless renewables make real money – Governments must accept that green power is pricey. Last year global capital spending on wind and solar assets was greater than investment in new and existing oil and gas wells for the first time. Governments in America and Europe are spending billions on subsidies for clean tech over the next decade; China is offering juicy incentives, too.”, The Economist, February 16, 2023
Global & Regional Travel Updates
Air travel to surpass pre-Covid level demand this year – Air passenger demand in 2023 will rapidly recover to pre-pandemic levels on most routes by the first quarter and growth of around 3% on 2019 figures will be achieved by year end, according to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). ‘Assuring the safe, secure, and sustainable recovery of air services will be key to restoring aviation’s ability to act as a catalyst for sustainable development at the local, national and global levels, and will consequently be vital to countries’ recovery from the broader impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, said ICAO Council President Salvatore Sciacchitano.”, Trade Arabia, February 16, 2023
“Travel Giant TUI Sees Summer Bookings Ahead of 2019 Levels – TUI AG said recent bookings for the upcoming summer are running ahead of pre-pandemic levels, the latest sign the travel sector is booming despite high inflation sapping consumer spending power. The world’s biggest tour operator said booking volumes since the start of the year exceeded 2019 levels, led by demand from travelers in the UK and Germany. Prices are also higher than pre-pandemic levels, the company said.”, Bloomberg, February 15, 2023
“The Safest Airlines In 2023 – Every airline offers something different—but aside from comfort, catering and service, safety has to be one of the most most important criteria for judging whether one is better than another. AirlineRatings.com have just announced the top 20 airlines for safety in 2023 after taking into consideration the following factors for all 385 airlines that it monitors: the number of crashes over the past five years; the number of serious incidents over the past two years, the audits from aviation’s governing bodies and lead associations, the age of the airline’s fleet, expert analysis of pilot training and Covid protocols.”, Forbes, February 8, 2023
Country & Regional Updates
Brazil
“Brazil’s economic activity rises 2.9% in 2022 – Brazil’s economic activity increased by 2.9% in 2022, according to a central bank index released on Thursday, boosted by the services sector and defying earlier predictions of mild growth, but with recent months’ performance showing loss of momentum. After starting the previous year with a forecast of a 0.3% expansion for the Brazilian economy in 2022, private economists surveyed weekly by the central bank now project 3% growth, on the back of resilient services activity and a stronger labor market.”, Reuters, February 16, 2023
Canada
“Canadian firms plan to increase salaries, hire while hedging against recession, surveys show – Canadian employers are looking to ramp up hiring as well as employee compensation through the first half of the year, while simultaneously taking measures to protect against a sudden change to the economic landscape.
With unemployment near a record low, the Canadian labour market remains historically competitive, despite widespread layoffs in the tech sector, inflation challenges, rising interest rates and fears of a looming recession. In response, businesses plan to increase spending on compensation to compete for talent in the first half of the year but are also leaving themselves some room to manoeuvre should economic circumstances change over the coming months.
A recent survey of 440 Canadian employers by HR consulting firm Normandin Beaudry found that half plan to increase their 2023 salary budgets for non-unionized workers by an average of 4.7 per cent.” The Globe and Mail, February 20, 2023
China
“Shanghai Must Lift Foreign Confidence After Covid – Foreign investment into China weak in 2022 as economy slowed China’s government is trying to attract more investment now. China should eliminate barriers to investment faced by foreign firms, as well as promote the yuan’s internationalization and strengthen financial support for smaller companies, the European Chamber of Commerce’s Shanghai chapter wrote in its biannual report published Tuesday.”, Bloomberg, February 13, 2023
“From Apple to VW, CEOs Gradually Returning to China After Its Reopening – Despite growing geopolitical tensions, companies pursue business opportunities. For many senior executives, it will be their first visit to the country since the Covid-19 pandemic began, after China—a top manufacturing hub and consumer market for many of the world’s largest companies—deepened its isolation for three years by slamming the door to international travel. As its economy struggles, Beijing is counting on such visits to attract investments from multinationals.”, The Wall Street Journal
Egypt
“Egypt Launches Privatization Drive as Economy Reels From Inflation – Government plans to sell stakes in 32 state companies, including three major banks and the country’s largest insurer. The country plans to sell the shares in the coming year either directly to investors or via the Egyptian Stock Exchange, Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said Wednesday. Egypt’s economy has long been dominated by the state and increasingly by the military, creating less space for private firms to thrive.”, The Wall Street Journal, February 9, 2023
Eurozone & European Union Countries
“Europe’s Biggest Sources of Electricity by Country – Energy and electricity supply have become vital for nearly every European nation over the past year, as the region shifts away from its dependence on Russian fuel imports. This graphic maps out European countries by their top source of electricity generation using data from Electricity Maps and the IEA, along with a breakdown of the EU’s overall electricity generation by source in 2021.”, Visual Capitalist, February 10, 2023
India
“Goldman Growth Fund Boosts Bets on India as China Interest Cools – Half of Goldman’s growth capital invested in Asia since 2003. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is ramping up investing its clients money in India and developed markets in Asia-Pacific as interest in China cools amid political and economic friction. The New York-based bank is targeting to invest a quarter of its newly-raised $5.2 billion growth fund in the region, people familiar with the matter said, who asked not to be named discussing internal information.”, Bloomberg, February 15, 2023
Indonesia
“Indonesia Holds Key Rate as Inflation, Rupiah Pressures Subside – The central bank left its seven-day reverse repurchase rate unchanged at 5.75% on Thursday, as seen by 26 of 28 economists in a Bloomberg survey. It’s the central bank’s first hold since July, before it embarked on a 225 basis-points of rate hikes to get a grip on surging food and fuel prices. The outlook for Southeast Asia’s biggest economy has changed significantly since. Inflation dipped to a five-month low in January, aided by lower transport costs and an extensive government push to distribute food supplies across markets and villages.”, Bloomberg, February 15, 2023
Israel
“Israel economy grew 6.5% in 2022, seen near 3% in 2023 – On a per capita basis, Israel’s economy – which produced some $500 billion last year – grew 4.4% versus an OECD average of 2.6%. On a per capita basis, Israel’s economy – which produced some $500 billion last year – grew 4.4% versus an OECD average of 2.6%. Helped by a surge in immigration from former Soviet states and a decline in mortality, Israel’s population rose 2.2% last year and now stands at 9.66 million.”, Reuters, February 16, 2023
Japan
“Japan’s Economy Grows Slightly in Fourth Quarter – Revival in tourism helps GDP expand annualized 0.6% but inflation looms. The world’s third-largest economy after the U.S. and China grew 0.2% in the three months to December from the previous quarter and 0.6% on an annualized basis. For all of 2022, real growth was 1.1%, but the economy was still slightly smaller than it had been in the pre-Covid-19 years of 2017 through 2019 because of a big drop in 2020 caused by the pandemic.”, The Wall Street Journal, February 13, 2023
Mexico
“Border-Town Warehouses Are Booming as More Manufacturing Moves to Mexico – Real-estate investors add properties in cities like Tijuana, Mexico, and Laredo and El Paso, Texas. American and some foreign companies are shifting production and equipment to Mexico in pursuit of a manufacturing hub closer to the U.S. Many are relocating from Asia after a series of disruptions related to China during the pandemic, part of a burgeoning “nearshoring” trend.”, The Wall Street Journal, February 7, 2023
Thailand
“Thailand’s Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Slowed to 1.4% – Thailand’s economic growth slowed in the final quarter of 2022 as private consumption moderated and exports of goods fell despite a continued recovery in tourism. Gross domestic product rose 1.4% from a year earlier, compared with 4.6% growth in the third quarter, the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council said Friday. The quarterly growth figure fell short of the median forecast of 3.5% expansion in The Wall Street Journal’s poll of seven economists.”, The Wall Street Journal, February 16, 2023
United Kingdom
“Students Seeking Jobs Drive Record Net Increase in UK Workforce – Economic inactivity falls as students return to jobs market Figures ease concerns about labor shortage pushing up wages. Students are riding to the rescue of staff-starved British businesses by driving a record net increase in the number of people coming back into the workforce. The number of adults sitting on the sidelines of the jobs market — classed as economically inactive because they’re out of work and not looking for jobs fell by 113,000 in the three months to December, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday.”, Bloomberg, February 14, 2023
“Heathrow sees busiest January since start of Covid – Heathrow Airport has recorded its busiest January since the start of the pandemic, with 5.4 million passengers travelling through it last month. The latest figures are still below the six million people that passed through in January 2020, but Heathrow boss John Holland-Kaye said it showed the airport was ‘back to its best’.”, BBC, February 13, 2023
“A view from London – Milder, and shorter it may be, but a recession is still on the cards.
For the first time in more than a year we are raising our forecast for UK growth. A recession is still on the cards, but a shorter, milder recession than had seemed likely. Better news on energy supply, inflation and the outlook for the economies of China, the US and the EU lie behind our upgrade.”, Deloitte, February 13, 2023
United States
“Rekindling US productivity for a new era – Regaining historical rates of productivity growth would add $10 trillion to US GDP—a boost needed to confront workforce shortages, debt, inflation, and the energy transition. Achieving and equalizing productivity gains will require concerted action. Priorities include unlocking the power of existing technology, investing in intangibles, improving workforce reskilling and labor mobility, and implementing place-based approaches tuned to specific geographies.”, McKinsey, February 16, 2023
“Nearly 90% Of (U.S.) Small Businesses Are Labor Hoarding, New Study Finds – An Insight Global study reported that 77% of the American workforce planned to stay in their current jobs. And in a recent Skynova survey a whopping majority of 1,010 business owners (21% large, 22% medium and 57% small businesses) say they are labor hoarding. That means they are pumping up their investments in employees to keep the status quo and avoid a labor shortage.”, Forbes, February 11, 2023
Brand & Franchising News
“Adamantem to swoop on Boost Juice, Betty’s Burgers owner – Adamantem Capital has snapped up a majority stake in the Boost Juice and Betty’s Burgers chains in a deal valuing parent company Retail Zoo at around $350 million, becoming the third private owner in a decade. CEO Nishad Alani will remain running the business, which also owns Boost Juice. The firm has bought an estimated 70 per cent stake from Bain Capital. Other owners include Boost Juice founders Janine Allis and her husband Jeff, who are believed to have sold part of their stake to Adamantem.”, Australian Financial Review, February 6, 2023. Compliments of Jason Gehrke, The Franchise Advisory Centre, Brisbane
“Denny’s embraces new ways of broadening its customer base – The diner chain is trying a number of initiatives to keep its core business fresh and growing. Meanwhile, its parent is getting ready to expand Keke’s. With the installation of new kitchen equipment nearly done, Denny’s intends to stud its next core menu with more draws for diversifying its customer base, executives told investors Monday. They declined to specify what those products might be, but indicated the items were beyond the capabilities of the diner chain’s previous equipment array. Management has indicated before that the back-of-house revamp, now completed by about 98% of domestic units, will be particularly useful in appealing to a broader array of customers at dinner.”, Restaurant Business, February 14, 2023
“Domino’s (Australia) opened the most stores in 2022 – Domino’s opened 34 stores in 2022 increasing its network to 754 stores, the brand with the most opened stores amongst fast food and QSR brands in Australia, a report by cloud-based data intelligence platform GapMaps revealed. The focus of Domino’s growth has been within growth areas of major cities, as well as in cities with less than 20,000 residents.”, QSR Media Australia, February 3, 2023. Compliments of Jason Gehrke, The Franchise Advisory Centre, Brisbane
“Taco Bell opens first Cantina in Hollywood with digital tech and DJ parties – The first Taco Bell Cantina in Los Angeles will replace menu boards with five kiosks and will have event capabilities. The latest Cantina store is just one small step in Taco Bell’s larger growth journey. Last quarter, Taco Bell opened 253 gross new units, and it’s part of a wider strategy to expand Taco Bell’s footprint to be on-par with McDonald’s, Taco Bell CEO Mark King said during Yum Brands’ investor day in December.”, Nation’s Restaurant News, February 16, 2023
“A Newly Opened Texas Roadhouse Is Reportedly The Largest On Earth – Lubbock, Texas has had a Texas Roadhouse for more than two decades, but they’ve never had one like the location that just opened at 6101 Slide Road. Why? According to Everything Lubbock, it’s enormous, and at 12,000 square feet, is thought to be the biggest restaurant the steakhouse chain has ever operated. “It’s bigger than the one we had before, it’s frankly the largest Texas Roadhouse in the world right now,” noted Mike Smith, managing partner at Texas Roadhouse Lubbock, per Everything Lubbock.”, The Tasting Table, February 11, 2023
“Tim Hortons parent Restaurant Brands International replacing CEO – Toronto-based Restaurant Brands International Inc., which also owns Burger King, Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen and Firehouse Subs, announced Tuesday that chief operating officer Joshua Kobza will replace CEO Jose Cil, effective March 1. Mr. Cil will remain with the company as an adviser for one year. RBI’s board has made the change just a few months after it hired Patrick Doyle, who is known for leading a turnaround at Domino’s Pizza Inc., as its new executive chair.”, The Globe and Mail, February 14, 2023
“Yum China’s net profit in the fourth quarter of 2022 will drop by 90 percent – Executives say they will focus on boosting sales in 2023. For the full year of 2022, Yum China’s total revenue will be US$9.57 billion (approximately RMB 64.926 billion), a year-on-year decrease of 3%; net profit will be US$442 million (approximately RMB 2.999 billion), a year-on-year decrease of 55%. Same-store sales are an important indicator for chain restaurants. In the fourth quarter of 2022, Yum China’s same-store sales fell by 4% year-on-year, of which KFC and Pizza Hut fell by 3% and 8% respectively.”, Caixin, February 8, 2023. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
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Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, economic development and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing environment. Our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provides us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries.
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Over 4 decades William (Bill) Edwards has steered more than 40 brands successfully through the complexities of Going Global. Problem-solver, strategist, visionary and trusted Global Advisor, Bill Edwards sees what others don’t. Now he’s sharing this unmatched experience and wisdom with select senior executives traversing the complex international growth landscape.
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EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 75, Tuesday, February 7, 2023
Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)
Introduction: This issue is one of our longest to date. In this issue we cover 10+ countries, the European Union and Eurozone, 2023 global GDP growth, unemployment and fossil fuel projections, the Big Mac Index, the most visited websites worldwide, the rise of the use of AI in corporations, the state of global democracy, global jet fuel use and the last 747 is built.
We want to pass along our very best wishes to the people of Turkey in these difficult times after two major earthquakes. My family and I lived in Turkey in the 1980s and have many Friends in this wonderful country.
The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources to update our 1,400+ readers in 20+ countries on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad.
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First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others
“A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.”, Ancient Chinese proverb
“Happiness and freedom begin with one principle. Some things are within your control and some are not.”, Epictetus, 55-155 AD
“The desire for safety stands against every great and noble enterprise.”, Tacitus, 56-117 AD
Highlights in issue #75:
- Brand Global News Section: City Cave®, Starbuck®, Subway®
NOTE: Bolded headlines in this newsletter are live links where the article is available without a paid subscription.
Interesting Data and Studies
“IMF Boosts Global Growth Forecast, Saying a Recession Is Unlikely – The IMF upgraded its forecast for world growth to 2.9% from a previous prediction of 2.7% in October. It sees the expansion accelerating to 3.1% in 2024. In 2022, it estimates the world economy grew 3.4%. ‘The year ahead will still be challenging,’ said IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. ‘But it could well represent the turning point, with growth bottoming out and inflation declining.’”, Barron’s, February 3, 2023
“The world’s most, and least, democratic countries in 2022 – The EIU’s global democracy index shows several authoritarian rulers tightened their grip. The annual survey rates the state of democracy across 167 countries on the basis of five measures with a maximum score of ten—electoral process and pluralism, the functioning of government, political participation, democratic political culture and civil liberties. The latest edition finds that almost half (45.3%) of the world’s population live in a democracy of some sort, while more than a third (36.9%) live under authoritarian rule.”, The Economist, February 1, 2023
“GDP Growth Forecasts by Country, in 2023 – Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine early last year, talk of global recession has dominated the outlook for 2023. High inflation, spurred by rising energy costs, has tested GDP growth. Tightening monetary policy in the U.S., with interest rates jumping from roughly 0% to over 4% in 2022, has historically preceded a downturn about one to two years later. For European economies, energy prices are critical. The above infographic maps GDP growth forecasts by country for the year ahead, based on projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) October 2022 Outlook and January 2023 update.”, Visual Capitalist / Markets In A Minute, February 2, 2023
“Global Unemployment in 2022 – In poor countries, employment has increased but job quality remains low. The global economy is facing a potential recession in 2023 that threatens to undo the post-pandemic job recovery. Globally, employment has increased but job quality remains low, especially in lower-income countries where informal employment is prevalent. The volatility in markets and pessimistic economic climate are hindering investment and slowing productivity. Access to quality jobs with strong wages is becoming increasingly difficult.”, Geopolitical Futures, February 3, 2023
“2023 Business Predictions As AI And Automation Rise In Popularity – A Deloitte study recently found that over 50% of organizations are planning on incorporating the use of AI and automation technologies in 2023. While many top executives are worried about the risks of AI usage, other high-achieving organizations are adopting new tech-savvy operational processes. A survey of Global 500 companies found that leaders choosing to invest in AI and automation business tools and software solutions expect to see significant growth within the next few years. To help your business prepare for a successful year, here are some predictions of how business practices will evolve in 2023.”, Forbes, February 2, 2023
“The Top 50 Most Visited Websites in the World – Estimates vary, but there are upwards of two billion websites in existence in 2023. Topping the list of most-visited websites in the world is, of course, Google. With over 3.5 billion searches per day, Google has cemented its position as the go-to source for information on the internet. The company also owns YouTube, the second-most popular website in the world. Together, Google and YouTube have more traffic than the next 48 websites combined. The power of YouTube, in particular, is sometimes not fully understood. The video platform is the second largest search engine in the world after Google.”, Visual Capitalist, January 24, 2023
Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation & Trade Issues
“What inflation means for the Big Mac index – The competitive advantage of fast-food nations. The iconic McDonald’s burger is an amalgam of rent, electricity and labour, as well as beef, bread and cheese. Its price is therefore indicative of broader inflationary pressures. And because the burger is basically the same wherever you are in the world, its price can also reveal how inflation has changed the relative costliness of different countries. The combination of rising prices and a rising currency threatens to move American prices out of whack with those elsewhere in the world. Two years ago, for example, the Big Mac was 26% cheaper in Japan than America. In principle, this suggests the yen was undervalued and should have risen against the dollar. A Big Mac is now more than 40% cheaper in Japan.”, The Economist, January 25, 2023
“Visualizing the Scale of Global Fossil Fuel Production – Fossil fuels have been our predominant source of energy for over a century, and the world still extracts and consumes a colossal amount of coal, oil, and gas every year. In 2021, the world produced around 8 billion tonnes of coal, 4 billion tonnes of oil, and over 4 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. Most of the coal is used to generate electricity for our homes and offices and has a key role in steel production. Similarly, natural gas is a large source of electricity and heat for industries and buildings. Oil is primarily used by the transportation sector, in addition to petrochemical manufacturing, heating, and other end uses.”, Visual Capitalist, January 31, 2023
“BP cuts long-term forecast for oil and gas demand – Group’s latest annual outlook says energy security concerns will spur more investment in renewables. BP has trimmed its outlook for oil and gas demand in its latest annual forecast, arguing that the upheaval unleashed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will push countries to pursue greater energy security over the next decade by investing in renewables. As a result, global carbon emissions could peak earlier in the 2020s than it had previously suggested, BP (British Petroleum) said in its annual energy outlook on Monday.”, The Financial Times, January 29, 2023
Global & Regional Travel Updates
“Rising Jet-Fuel Costs Threaten to Send Airfares Higher – Prices have jumped, partly because of swelling travel demand as China eases its Covid restrictions. Prices for the kerosene-based product have been climbing since December, propelled by diminished supplies after winter storms shut down refineries. Swelling demand has also pushed up prices, as millions of Chinese travelers took to the skies to celebrate the Lunar New Year and newfound freedom from Covid restrictions. The global jet-fuel price index maintained by S&P Global is up 20% since Dec. 7, while prices on the U.S. East Coast are up about 77%.”, The Wall Street Journal, February 2, 2023
“Final Boeing 747 rolls off assembly line: “It’s not just another airplane”. The 747 was the world’s first jumbo jet. Twice as big as any other airliner when it first flew back in 1969. Pan-Am welcomed the first passengers on board a year later. Over more than 118 million flight hours and counting, the 747’s four engines have carried millions of passengers, six U.S. presidents and even the space shuttle across the country and around the world. After 1,574 of the 747s were built, this marks the end of the line for the Queen of the Skies at Boeing.”, CBS News, February 4, 2023
Country & Regional Updates
Canada
“As COVID-19 wanes and recession lurks, corporate profits boom – In spite of inflation, spiking interest rates and the threat of recession, 2022 was a great year for corporate Canada, with the biggest companies in the country having more than rebounded from COVID. A Globe and Mail study of the financial statements of more than 200 publicly traded companies shows that, in the first nine months of 2022, revenue was up 37 per cent and net income was up 40 per cent over the first nine months of 2019, the last “normal,” prepandemic year of business. The growth in corporate earnings – which can be seen across multiple measures of profitability – is outpacing workers’ wages and the Canadian economy as a whole.”, The Globe and Mail, February 6, 2023
China
“China economic activity swings back to growth in January – The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI), which measures manufacturing activity, rose to 50.1 in January from 47.0 in December, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Tuesday. Economists in a Reuters poll had predicted the PMI to come in at 48.0. Since the result was above 50.0, it implied growth. A rebound in non-manufacturing activity was more decisive than expected by economists – but helped by a seasonal surge in spending for the Lunar New Year holiday. That index, which covers services, leapt to 54.4, from 41.6 in December.”, Reuters, January 31, 2023
“Shanghai shopping malls poised for surge of new tenants chasing post-pandemic ‘revenge spending’ spree – At least 13 global chain-store operators have already set up or plan to open their first mainland Chinese shops in Shanghai this year. China’s exit from its zero-Covid strategy will unleash pent-up demand for packaged food and personal-care products, according to a study. “In 2023, a strong recovery of shopping activities will be seen from the second quarter,” said Sherril Sheng, research director for the residential sector at JLL China. “More lease agreements will be signed as new-energy vehicle, personal care brands, garment makers and outdoor sportswear companies look to open new stores.”, South China Morning Post, February 5, 2023
Eurozone & European Union Countries
“Eurozone avoids recession as economy expands in fourth quarter – Mild weather and government support help region offset energy price rises triggered by Ukraine war. Bert Colijn, senior economist at ING, the bank, said the region’s economy was showing “incredible resilience” in the face of the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Tuesday’s data means that the region managed to grow in each quarter of 2022 and by 3.5 per cent over the course of the year.”, The Financial Times, January 31, 2023
“The $16 Trillion European Union Economy – The European Union has the third-largest economy in the world, accounting for one-sixth of global trade. All together, 27 member countries make up one internal market allowing free movement of goods, services, capital and people. The modern version of the EU can trace its origin to 1993, with the adoption of the name, ‘the European Union,’ the birth of a single market, and the promise to use a single currency—the euro. Since then the EU has become an economic and political force to reckon with. Its combined gross domestic product (GDP) stood at $16.6 trillion in 2022, after the U.S. ($26 trillion) and China ($19 trillion.)”, Visual Capitalist, January 23, 2023
Germany
“German economy shrinks as soaring energy costs pinch demand – Unexpected fourth-quarter contraction shows how hard manufacturing has been hit. The German economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.2 per cent in the final quarter of 2022, as high gas prices squeezed demand and placed the eurozone’s manufacturing powerhouse on the brink of recession.”, The Financial Times, January 30, 2023
India
“India economic outlook, January 2023 – Healthy domestic drivers will help India post a strong growth of 6.5%–6.9% in FY2022–23, but global economic exigencies may cast their shadows on the outlook for the rest of 2023. Apart from the customary change in dates, very little in the new year feels different from the one gone by for the global economy. Geopolitical uncertainties continue unabated, a legacy of the last year, and there’s wide consensus among economists now that the global economy is on the verge of entering a phase of severe slowdown. It is unlikely that India will remain insulated from these developments. But here is a bit of good news as far as India’s economy goes—there are enough reasons to be optimistic about India’s economic outlook in 2023. In particular, healthy domestic drivers will likely help the country post reasonably strong growth this year.”, Deloitte, January 25, 2023
Japan
“Japan Inc strives to lure skilled workers as inflation, labour crunch bite – From inflation allowances to the reskilling of workers, firms in Japan are stepping up efforts to help employees fight rising prices and a labour crunch, even though some cannot afford pay hikes that do more than offset cost-push inflation. As annual “shunto” labour talks get into full swing, momentum from both labour and management is growing for firms to offer such hikes to cushion, even if not beat, consumer inflation, which hit a 41-year high of 4% in December.”, Reuters, January 30, 2023
Saudi Arabia
“Saudi Business Confidence Hits Two-Year High As Boom Continues – The Riyad Bank Saudi PMI rose to 58.2 from 56.9 in December, well above the 50-mark separating growth from contraction. Last month’s figure was the second-highest recorded since September 2021 after November’s more than seven-year high. It’s the latest sign that last year’s economic boom is continuing even as oil prices fall from recent highs. Overall growth was an estimated 8.7% last year, Saudi official projections showed, making it the fastest growing major economy.:, Bloomberg, February 5, 2023
South Korea
“China’s reopening stirs hopes that South Korea can turn around a record trade deficit – South Korea logged a US$12.69 billion trade deficit in January, with the total value of exports falling by 16.6 per cent from a year earlier. Exports to China decreased by 31.4 per cent in January year on year, due primarily to economic disruption from Covid outbreaks. Other factors included a seasonal increase in energy imports over winter amid high global costs and a sharp drop in semiconductor export prices. Semiconductors are the biggest export item for South Korea, making up 18.9 per cent of the country’s total export value last year.”, South China Morning Post, February 1, 2023
Spain
“Spain’s economy is recovering from the pandemic, but problems persist – In January 2022, an index by The Economist, ranking 23 countries’ recoveries from the pandemic, put Spain in last place. The government criticised the index, while the opposition was bound to jeer. A year later, a similar exercise put Spain in 4th place, and it was the government’s turn to strut. And the flattering numbers continue to appear. Annual inflation, running at 5.6% in December, is the lowest in the euro zone, in part because Spain consumes little Russian gas. The main share-price index has made up most of its losses. The unemployment rate is the lowest since 2008, when the financial crisis burst a construction bubble. Tourism rebounded strongly last year.”, The Economist, January 27, 2023
Turkey
“Turkey’s tourism gains in war-hit 2022 but trade deficit widens – Turkey’s tourism revenue hit a record $46.3 billion in 2022 even as its trade deficit swelled to more than $109 billion, as a fallout from war in nearby Ukraine brought a surge of Russian arrivals but also drove up energy-import costs. But even as arrivals at Turkey’s Mediterranean beaches and historical sites brought in forex, energy imports shot up by more than 90% to $96.55 billion in 2022, the official data showed. The overall foreign trade deficit surged 137% year-on-year to $109.54 billion in 2022, according to the general trade system, the data showed, while the December deficit increased 42% from a year earlier.”, Reuters, January 31, 2023
United Kingdom
“FTSE 100 defies gloom to close at record high after US jobs surprise – The FTSE 100 closed at a record high today after unexpectedly strong jobs figures from America buoyed the value of Britain’s biggest listed companies. The benchmark UK index reached its highest ever intra-day level of 7,906.58 — beating the 7,903.5 points set on May 22, 2018 — around an hour after the employment data was released. It closed at an all-time high of 7,901.8, up 1.04 per cent during the session, topping the previous peak closing figure of 7,877.45 set on the same day four-and-a-half years ago.”, The Times Of London, February 3, 2023
“Bank of England raises UK interest rates to 4% – Hike of 0.5 percentage points lifts rates to 14-year high, but BoE says shorter and shallower recession now more likely. Publishing an updated outlook for the economy alongside the rate decision, the Bank said that inflation “is likely to have peaked” and a recession would be less severe than previously predicted, but said Brexit was damaging the economy more quickly than it had anticipated.”, The Guardian, February 2, 2023
United States
“(U.S.) Jobs Growth Was Double the Forecast. It’s a Challenge for the Fed. – Nonfarm payrolls increased to 517,000 last month, up from 223,000 jobs in December. The latest reading was more than double the 185,000-job increase expected among economists surveyed by FactSet. The unemployment rate fell to 3.4% from 3.5%, rather than rising to 3.6% as economists had estimated.”, Barron’s, February 3, 2023
“Americans fear recession, but most believe their jobs are safe – Many Americans (73%) said they had a negative outlook on the economy, according to a recent survey by fintech company Achieve. However, 74% said they didn’t believe a downturn would impact their jobs. Additionally, 73% of respondents said they had no plans to leave their current employment, signaling that the Great Resignation trend, which saw droves of workers quit their jobs in the last two years, may be coming to an end, the survey said.”, Fox Business, January 30, 2023
Brand & Franchising News
“Former Subway CEO invests in Oz health chain – Suzanne Greco, the former international chief executive of sandwich chain, Subway International, has joined Brisbane-based wellness brand City Cave as a shareholder in the international expansion of the business, according to a post on LinkedIn. City Cave has approximately 50 outlets in Australia providing float therapy, massage and sauna services, and won the NextGen in Franchising Award at the 2019 International Franchise Association annual conference in Las Vegas, an annual competition which invites young entrepreneurs from around the world to submit innovative business ideas to grow via franchising.”, LinkedIn, January 2023. Compliments of Jason Gehrke, Managing Director, Franchise Advisory Center, Brisbane, Australia
“Starbucks Net profit in the first fiscal quarter increased by 4 8 percent year on year to US855 2 million, and the number of stores in China reached 6,090 – In terms of the number of stores, there were a net increase of 459 stores in the first quarter, and the total number of stores worldwide reached 36,170 at the end of the quarter. By the end of the first quarter, the number of stores in the United States and China accounted for 61% of the world, including 15,952 stores in the United States. In terms of the Chinese market, Starbucks also stated that in the first quarter, Starbucks China opened 69 new stores and entered 10 new cities. At the end of the quarter, the company had 6,090 stores in China, covering 240 cities.”, Caijing.com.cn, February 3, 2023. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto
“Subway to Add Thousands of Restaurants Outside the US – The chain aims to increase its international locations to around 25,000 over 10 years from roughly 16,000 today, Mr. Chidsey said. The expansion is part of a plan to raise Milford, Conn.-based Subway’s sales to around $25 billion annually from its current $16 billion. Mr. Chidsey said that much of the company’s growth lies abroad, with sandwiches resonating well with many different dietary preferences and the chain facing much less competition. ‘The unit-growth story continues to be international,’ Mr. Chidsey said.”, The Wall Street Journal, February 2, 2023
“Why 2023 will be a year of weaker (US) sales and higher margins – Fitch Ratings expects modest restaurant growth this year. But recent price increases and an improving inflationary environment should help with profits. Low-price restaurants like Taco Bell can be expected to outperform full-service chains and those with higher prices. In 2022, restaurants watched their profits shrink even as their sales growth remained strong or even accelerated. This year should be the opposite, as last year’s price increases coupled with an improving inflationary environment lead to improved profits even as sales growth weakens.”, Restaurant Business, January 30, 2023
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Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, economic development and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing environment. Our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provides us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries.
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Over 4 decades William (Bill) Edwards has played a leadership role in the global growth of more than 40 brands. He is widely recognized as an International Problem Solver, Strategist, Advisor and a specialist on global cultures. His career covers international operations, executive and entrepreneurial experience in the energy, technology, licensing, management consulting and retail sectors. As a Global Advisor, he now shares his experiences and wisdom with senior executives to help them successfully navigate the complex international company growth landscape.
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